What could regional escalations mean to Egypt?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

US mulls adding Egypt to travel ban list

Good morning, friends. Sadly, the world’s focus is once again firmly on our part of the world as Israel and Iran enter into a dangerous escalation that risks opening up another depressing chapter in the region’s history. We lead today’s issue with how the war is already affecting Egypt and what scenarios could unfold from this unpredictable and worrying conflict.

PSA-

The opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum has been put on hold, and has now been pushed from 3 July to the last quarter of the year “in light of current regional events,” a Tourism Ministry statement said. The decision came following Israel striking Iran on Friday morning and the continuing exchange of fire since.

EgyptAir canceled all of its flights to Erbil and Baghdad in Iraq, Amman in Jordan, and Beirut in Lebanon until nations reopen their airspace and air traffic resumes, according to a statement from the Civil Aviation Ministry.

WEATHER- Summery weather continues in Cairo today, with a high of 36°C, a low of 23°C, and partly cloudy skies, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a fair bit cooler on the coast in Alexandria, with a high of 28°C, a low of 20°C, and partly cloudy skies

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The US is considering adding Egypt to its travel ban alongside 35 other nations that could join the 19 countries designated for full or partial travel bans earlier this month, according to a State Department memo seen by the Washing ton Post. The targeted countries will have a 60-day deadline to meet certain demands, or have their nationals be subject to a partial or full travel ban, in addition to a Wednesday deadline to submit an action plan to meet them.

The memo pointed to a wide range of concerns to address, including the number of nationals that overstay visas, the reliability of some governments’ documents, government fraud, citizenship through investment as opposed to residency, and nationals in the US showing “antisemitic and anti-American activity in the United States.” Countries that agree to act as a “safe third country” for those deported from the US could be given more preferential treatment, according to the memo.

American right wing news outlets had earlier questioned why Egypt wasn’t on the travel ban list announced on June 4, especially after Trump pointed to an attack by an Egyptian national on a protest in support of Israeli hostages in Gaza just days earlier to argue why the travel ban was necessary. In response, Trump told reporters that “Egypt has been a country that we deal with very closely. They have things under control. The countries that we have [on the travel ban list] don't have things under control.”

#2- All of the 53 African nations China has diplomatic relations with will get tariff access to the world's second most populous market under a new pact soon to be negotiated and signed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the opening of the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo. The scrapping of tariffs across the whole continent extends its existing policy for least developed countries to include middle-income nations, including Egypt, while adding additional support to least developed countries.

China’s approach to tariffs in Africa are in stark contrast to its geopolitical rival America, with some countries like Lesotho facing tariffs as high as 50%, prominent economies like South Africa facing 30% tariffs, and the lucky few like Egypt with a more accommodating 10% tariff under the Trump administration’s new global tariff regime.

#3- Foreigners with permanent residency are exempt from personal vehicle import regulations, according to an official decision by the Investment Ministry reviewed by EnterpriseAM. The decision will apply to foreigners residing in Egypt and foreign students accompanied by their families if they are over 16 years of age, allowing them to purchase vehicles from abroad — granting them a similar treatment to diplomats and Egyptians living abroad.

THE SMALL PRINT- There will also be no requirement to submit a document proving payment for the vehicle abroad. Instead, buyers will need to provide documentation showing the payment value of the vehicle through the bank transfer's SWIFT number.

IN THE HOUSE-

MPs will kick off discussions on the next fiscal year’s draft budget when they meet this week, after the cabinet greenlit the draft budget in March. The state is targeting a primary surplus of EGP 795 bn — or 4% of GDP — and reducing the public debt to 82.9% next fiscal year, as well as trimming the debt-to-GDP ratio to below 92%.

WANT THE FULL PICTURE? We have a dive into what can be expected from the next fiscal year’s budget, which you can check out here.

ALSO ON THE AGENDA- The House will also discuss a protocol agreement between Egypt and the UAE to avoid double taxation and crackdown on tax evasion. The two parties signed a supplementary agreement to avoid double taxation between them and clamp down on income tax evasion.

HAPPENING TODAY-

IFC President Makhtar Diop is in Cairo to kick off a two-day trip to the country accompanied by the institution’s newly appointed Vice President for Africa Ethiopis Tafara to “advance our mission: mobilize capital, create jobs, and deliver impact,” the head of the IFC said in a post.

The IFC delegation will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, the cabinet, other senior government officials, alongside “private sector leaders across diverse industries,” according to a statement to the media seen by EnterpriseAM.

The visit will “highlight IFC’s commitment to supporting Egypt’s economic development by strengthening private sector participation,” in addition to discussing gender inclusion, SME financing, and entrepreneurship collaboration with the private sector, according to the statement. But we are also on the lookout for some important updates about our airport privatization push — which we have tapped the IFC to give a helping hand with.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

AUC’s Onsi Sawrisi School of Business will host the annual Business Forward annual event on Tuesday under the theme Future Forward: Inspiring Business in 2025 to dive into how “businesses are navigating economic turbulence while driving innovation, exports and sustainable industrial growth,” according to a s tatement (pdf) from the university. In addition, leading academics from the university, the events panels include insights from leading private sector players, including Travco Managing Director Moataz Sedky, Edita for Trade and Distribution CEO Alfred Younan, Talabat Egypt Managing Director Hadeer Shalaby — to name but a few, according to the event’s agenda (pdf)

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s no shortage of front page news in the global press this morning, with the war between Israel and Iran into its third and even more concerning day, politically motivated assassinations shaking the US, and millions coming out to protest Trump’s birthday bash military parade.

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran looks set to continue and become even more deadly, with strikes between the two countries continuing throughout the night and accompanied by Iranian vows to take revenge and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats that attacks to come will be “nothing compared with what they will be handed in the coming days.” Since sparking the conflict on Friday morning with strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sights, in addition to assasination strikes on senior military figures and nuclear scientists, at least 138 Iranians and 9 Israelis have been killed.

Last night’s attacks saw Israel expand its targeting to include Iranian energy sites, including on the world’s largest gas field and on oil facilities in the country. Adding to energy market jitters were Iranian threats to close the oil supply chokepoint Straight of Hormuz — potentially leading to the cutting off about 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. (Reuters | Associated Press | New York Times | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | BBC | Guardian)

While over in the states, a manhunt is on for a suspect alleged to have murdered a Democratic state politician Melissa Hortman and her husband, in what Minnesota Governor Tim Walz described as a likely “politically motivated assassination”. In a separate attack, the suspect is also understood to have shot Democratic state lawmaker John Hoffman and his wife, who are currently in hospital receiving treatment. (Reuters | Associated Press | New York Times | Washington Post)

Also ranking high on the world’s digital front pages is Donald Trump’s military parade that was overshadowed by nationwide protests, which some outlets estimate numbered in the millions of protestors across more than 2k sites. The parade — purportedly to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army, but also landing on Trump’s 79th birthday — sparked protests under the banner No Kings in opposition to what they describe as creeping authoritarianism. (Associated Press | CNN | Washington Post | New York Times)

What could the escalations between Israel and Iran mean for Egypt?

As fears of a broader regional war mount following Israel and Iran trading airstrikes, we take a look at what it all could mean for Egypt. Could disruptions to energy flows, shipping routes, and tourism inflows put pressure on our external position and macro stability, and could we see foreign investors spook? We take a deep dive into the potential economic consequences for Egypt if the hostilities persist or escalate.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The most dangerous confrontation between Israel and Iran in years: After months of heightened tensions between the two, a war of words quickly escalated into an escalating conflict after Israel struck military and nuclear sites on Friday morning, along with targeted assassinations of senior military figures and nuclear scientists. The two have since exchanged missiles and airstrikes over the weekend and show little signs of looking for an offramp, with Iran vowing revenge and Israel threatening even more devastating strikes to come and hitting at regime change.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR EGYPT-

Exchange rate, inflation, and monetary policy under pressure: HC Securities’ Nemat Choucri told EnterpriseAM that escalations could lead to “supply chain disruptions, which could negatively impact inflation and potentially disrupt the pace of Egypt’s easing cycle.” She added that “oil prices have increased, and Egypt’s Oil Ministry announced that it will need to cut its natural gas supply to some industrial activities.”

What does the rise in oil prices mean for us? Banking expert Hany Abou El Fotouh warned that “with rising oil prices, the import bill is likely to increase, which could put pressure on the balance of payments in the short term.” He also noted that while the EGP has held steady for now, “continued tensions could prompt some foreign investors to hedge, which would increase local demand for USD.”

We’re trying to secure a strategic energy reserve: Egypt signed a natural gas import agreement over the weekend to build a six-month strategic reserve of petroleum products amid rising geopolitical risks. We have the full story in the news well below.

BY THE NUMBERS- Brent crude jumped 7.0% on Friday to USD 74.23 a barrel, marking the largest intraday moves since 2022, Reuters reports. But despite the sudden rise, prices remain in the red y-o-y and well below their 2022 peaks reached a few years back after Russia launched its war on Ukraine.

But oil prices could rise further, with Israel now targeting Iranian energy sites: Israel expanded its focus to include Iran’s energy infrastructure yesterday, with a strike on an Iranian natural gas processing facility in the South Pars gas field — the world’s largest. Although the field’s output is primarily for the domestic market, Israel’s turn towards energy targets could add even more volatility to the international energy market.

Basic commodity reserves should help the local market stocked and prices in check: The state’s reserve of basic commodities exceeds six months, which should keep products on shelves and at reasonable prices, the Supply Ministry said in a statement. The ministry also said it will be extra vigilant to address any price gouging and to ensure the continued supply of products.

Capital markets could see renewed outflows: “We may see some panic selling in treasuries and equities by foreign investors as an initial reaction due to the region’s increased geopolitical risk,” Choucri said. Economist Hany Genena similarly told EnterpriseAM that a “partial exit is likely, which is normal due to fears of FX instability.” However, he dismissed the possibility of a full-blown exit similar to the 2022 hot money crisis, unless key inflows are severely disrupted. “A complete exit is unlikely unless investors start to fear a full halt in tourism revenues, remittances, or other inflows — which seems highly improbable given that both tourism and capital flows held up during far more turbulent periods over the past two years,” Genena told us.

Hot money jitters are resurfacing: The current situation has reignited fears of foreign portfolio outflows from Egypt’s local debt market, a government source added. Foreign investors had returned to EGP-denominated local debt last month following a sharp exit in April, supported by the central bank’s easing cycle. The Finance Ministry’s pivot toward longer debt maturities is expected to help mitigate exposure to hot money volatility.

A rethink of subsidy reform could be in the cards: One potential outcome of the regional escalations could be a shift in the government’s fiscal strategy. Genena said the situation “could prompt Egypt to submit a request to the IMF to reconsider the current timetable for phasing out fuel and electricity subsidies.” This sentiment was echoed by Abou El Fotouh, who warned that further increases in oil prices “could require a reassessment of some subsidy items or the pricing of petroleum products.”

No immediate impact on the Suez Canal but risks remain: While the Suez Canal has not seen disruptions so far, Abou El Fotouh cautioned that “disruptions in regional maritime security or significant rises in ins. costs could temporarily prompt shipping lines to reconsider their routes.” This would derail efforts to bring back global shipping lines to the waterway. Transit receipts from the Suez Canal dropped 62.3% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn in 1H FY 2024-2025 on the back of Red Sea disruptions that pushed ships to reroute away from the canal.

Egypt has some policy space — for now: Despite the risks, Genena suggested that Egypt’s macro position remains stable enough to weather short-term turbulence. “The credit default swap (CDS) spread remains very low at around 5.3%, which gives Egypt room to continue its planned issuances of bonds and sukuk to refinance external debt obligations in 2H 2025.”

Sukuk program still on track: While it's still too early to assess how regional escalations will affect Egypt’s upcoming sukuk issuance, a government official told us that the program is moving forward as planned. A pipeline of projects and investments is currently being assembled under a broader local sukuk framework.

NUCLEAR SAFETY CONCERNS + EGYPT’S DIPLOMATIC RESPONSE-

Radiation risks? Not for Egypt, says nuclear watchdog: The Egyptian Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority (ENRRA) said that radiation levels remain “under control” at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility — a target site of Israeli airstrikes. “There are no indicators of any radiation leaks so far,” the authority said, citing coordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency and local authorities. ENRRA added that its early warning and monitoring network continues to track background radiation data to ensure public safety.

Cairo calls for de-escalation: The Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Friday morning strongly condemning Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian territory, calling the attack “a dangerous escalation that represents a blatant violation of International Law, and a direct threat to regional and international peace and security.” Egypt reiterated its long-standing position that “military solutions are no way to address the region’s crises” and called instead for “respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states” as a basis for peace.

Abdelatty warns against chaos in a call with Iran’s FM: Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty spoke with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Friday to discuss the “dangerous implications” of the Israeli attack. Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s “rejection and condemnation of violations of state sovereignty” and warned of the risks of “dragging the region into full-blown chaos.”

More calls with regional leaders: Abdelatty also spoke with his Qatari, Saudi, and Jordanian foreign ministers, with talks centring around the “grave consequences” of the Israeli escalations and their repercussions on broader regional stability. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi also spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday to jointly emphasise the need for deescalation.

Energy crisis mode is back on as Israel shuts off Leviathan gas field

The sudden halt in gas flows from Israel’s Leviathan field triggered by the military escalations between Israel and Iran has deepened Egypt’s energy crunch, forcing emergency reallocations, and factory shutdowns as the country scrambles to stabilize power generation ahead of peak summer demand.

Israeli gas suppliers formally invoked force majeure and suspended exports, including those to Egypt — which reached around 800 mn cubic feet per day (mcf/d) last week — after Tel Aviv shuttered the offshore field as well as the Karish field in the wake of military strikes on Iranian targets and the Iranian retaliation. The Israeli Energy Ministry declared a state of emergency in the gas sector following the recent attacks, leaving no clear timeline for when pumping will resume, a government official told Asharq Business.

The sudden loss of Leviathan volume has deepened Egypt’s supply gap as the country heads into peak summer demand, putting added pressure on already stretched daily allocations. Egypt needs around 6.2 bcf/d, but domestic production only contributes roughly 4.4 bcf/d — the supply gap is also expected to widen in the summer months with demand expected to rise to around 7.0 bcf/d.

The strain on the system has already started to show, with the Oil Ministry only able to supply 135 mn cubic meters of gas of the 146 mn cubic meters requested by the Electricity Ministry to power the grid, an unnamed government source told Asharq Business. Making things worse is unseasonably high demand, hitting 32.7 GW on Friday night — up from a seasonal average of 28 GW — placing strain on the national grid and forcing fuel reallocation at the expense of industrial production, a government source told us. As of now, there are no plans to reintroduce blackouts, the source said. “The government is trying to avoid a scenario of electricity load-shedding, but if developments in the region force us to, we will. Hopefully, we won’t need to resort to that,” cabinet spokesperson Mohamed El Homsany told talkshow host Azza Mostafa last night (watch, runtime: 7:11).

Egypt has activated its gas emergency energy playbook and the Oil Ministry has begun rerouting some gas volumes to power stations and ramping up the use of alternative fuels. Plants are maximizing mazut consumption and shifting some units to diesel, per a statement from the ministry. Electricity Minister Mahmoud Esmat instructed affiliated companies to stay prepared, monitor the stability of power supplies, and ensure electricity is available for all, according to a statem ent.

Authorities have also temporarily reduced gas supplies to several energy-intensive sectors — including iron, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and aluminum — until further notice to prioritize power generation, a source told EnterpriseAM. Local fertilizer companies have suspended operations following the dip in Israeli natural gas imports, Re uters reports.

Work to get newly arrived regassification units ready to receive shipments has never been more important. As of now, three regasification ships have arrived in Egypt, the Oil Ministry confirmed in the statement. One vessel is currently feeding the national grid, while the remaining two are undergoing final preparations and port connection works. Work on the third unit, docked at Ain Sokhna port, is being fast-tracked for integration into the grid, with the oil minister inspecting the port to expedite the process. The second ship will be connected by 27 June, and the third in the first week of July, El Homsany said. The government aims to bring all three FSRUs online by early July, expanding total regasification capacity to 2.25 bcf/d — more than double last year’s 1 bcf/d capacity.

A fourth vessel will serve as a contingency unit, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during a meeting Friday evening with the electricity and oil ministers and the CBE governor. However, while Egypt has contracted four floating storage and regasification units — three of which we have already received — it will likely need a fifth to handle incoming LNG shipments and keep up with local consumption, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The statement echoes sentiments reported by Bloomberg earlier this month that the government is mulling a fifth unit to ease pressure on the grid and stave off a return to rolling blackouts.

In other news that would have otherwise led the story — or even issue — on a normal day, Egypt secured long-term agreements for up to 120 LNG shipments annually with six of the 14 suppliers that submitted bids to state-owned EGAS, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The agreement at a USD 0.70 premium over international prices secures 80–100 LNG shipments annually, with the option to ramp up to 120 cargoes per year if needed and is part of the state’s broader strategy to build a six-month fuel reserve and reduce reliance on pipeline flows.

What does it mean for electricity prices? While production costs may rise if regional escalations persist, a source at the Electricity Ministry told us any adjustment to electricity prices lies with the cabinet and that no decision has been made yet. A government source told us in March that electricity prices hikes for both residential and industrial sectors are set to take effect by July, but last month another source told us that the government could delay the hike thanks to the decline in global oil prices, a more stable EGP-USD exchange rate, and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company going after long-term contracts.

The draft budget for the fiscal year 2025-2026 earmarks EGP 45 bn to protect the state against fluctuations in commodity prices, another senior government official told EnterpriseAM, adding that a prolonged crisis could stretch those buffers. The budget sees Brent crude prices averaging USD 77 per barrel and the USD at EGP 50.

Last Night’s Talk Shows on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict

Talk shows last night were dominated with coverage of the exchange of air and missile strikes between Israel and Iran, which began when Tel Aviv launched a devastating attack on Iran’s nuclear and missile program on Friday morning. Tehran responded with a wide-scale attack, and the strikes between the two sides continued at the time of writing.

“Iran’s response to the Israeli attack was different this time — it surprised everyone, including Israel, and caused the biggest losses in a long time. Tel Aviv was bombarded with hundreds of ballistic missiles. Although many were intercepted by the Iron Dome, Israel couldn’t hide the scenes of destruction," said Lamees El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 9:37), adding “Israelis lived a night of terror. Scenes Tel Aviv had never witnessed before — but Palestinians did. Israel wants to continue this for two weeks, but can its citizens endure it?” El Hadidi questioned.

“The Iranian-American negotiations were deceptive — a cover to dismantle the nuclear program on the ground through Israel, rather through negotiations," said political analyst Abdel Moneim Said during a phone call with El Hadidi on the same show (watch, runtime: 11:03).

“Israel’s goal is to eliminate its enemies one after another,” Said said. “I fear that Israel may later clash with other regional neighbors, as it is determined to follow its own goal to eliminate the Palestinian cause through displacement while eliminating militias too. It has already inflicted serious wounds on Hezbollah and Hamas,” he added.

“Egypt is one of the powers that Israeli media, at some point, has tried to meddle with by discussing its armament. Every Egyptian fears for their country when thinking about worst-case scenarios. They [Israel] want to displace Palestinians in Gaza”. Said told El Hadidi. “The region’s situation is critical and requires integrity, and Egypt is demonstrating that through its positions grounded in international law,” he added.

The recent escalation received wide coverage across other talks shows, including:

El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 20:58 | 27:04)
Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 29:20)
Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 1:21:25)

Egypt included in USD 1 bn industrial decarbonization program

DEVELOPMENT FINANCE-

Egypt is among seven countries to benefit from a USD 1 bn package by the Climate Investment Funds program to reduce industrial emissions, according to a statement from the International Cooperation and Planning Ministry. Egypt, alongside Brazil, Mexico, Namibia, South Africa, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, will collaborate with development banks and private sector partners to develop investment plans to submit to the multilateral climate fund’s board for approval. These plans will help the countries receive low-cost funding to expand clean technologies including green hydrogen and low-emission industries, in addition to attracting green investments.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

M&A WATCH-

Hassan Allam Utilities will acquire a 30% stake in Acwa Power subsidiary Acwa Power Luxor Project Holding Company after the Egyptian Competition Authority approved the local energy and infrastructure leader’s acquisition of the Saudi renewables giant’s subsidiary.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

#1- Development Partners International (DPI) received the green light from the Central Bank of Egypt to take over the management of fintech fund Nclude, according to a statement (pdf). The move “aims to attract new foreign investments in the fintech sector, aligning with the fund's goal of becoming the largest fintech-focused fund across the region, with a targeted capital of USD 150 mn.”

REMEMBER- The Africa-focused private equity giant first ann ounced that it is taking over the management of Nclude’s USD 105 mn assets under management under a fund restructuring transaction between the two sides in April. Under the move, DPI will both run Nclude’s existing investments and make investment decisions going forward.

#2- Valu’s has taken another step toward making its EGX trading debut, after parent company EFG Holding completed the restructuring of Valu operator U Consumer Finance after the bourse executed share transfers of 473.7 mn shares totaling worth EGP 335.5 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The shares were transferred to EFG Holding from several of its subsidiaries, including EFG Hermes, Hermes Asset Management, and EFG Finance.

The restructuring sets the stage for EFG Holding to distribute Valu shares equivalent to about 20.5% of the company to its shareholders in lieu of a banknote dividend, based on a book value of EGP 0.78 per share. The record date for the distribution was last Thursday, and Valu is due to start trading on the EGX in the week starting 22 June.

PE and VC activity in MENA took a hit last year, but momentum looks strong for 2025 -Pitchbook

Dealmaking in the Middle East took a slight hit last year, though bright spots still emerged across both venture capital and private equity, according to PitchBook’s latest MENA private capital breakdown report (pdf). Exits remained on the low side, with combined PE and VC-backed exit value in MENA dropping 42% y-o-y, while volume was down 16%. IPO appetite also waned, though select names braved public markets, including Arabian Mills in Saudi and the UAE’s NMDC Energy and Talabat.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Total private market fundraising also fell last year to USD 13.4 bn across 56 funds, with PE commanding the lion’s share.

PRIVATE EQUITY-

Total PE transaction value hit USD 13.7 bn across 147 plays in 2024, crossing the USD 10 bn mark for the fifth year in a row despite shedding 19.2% y-o-y in value. Of this, USD 3.7 bn across 43 buyouts was recorded in 4Q alone, with transaction value climbing nearly 30% q-o-q.

Fewer fund closures, bigger checks: Private equity funds in the region pulled in USD 9.5 bn last year, a three-fold increase compared to the previous year, despite a sharp drop in the number of fund closures. Mubadala Capital’s USD 3.1 bn MIC Capital Partners IV fund and the USD 5.2 bn Future Fund Oman headlined the year.

PE exits dropped 46.1% to their weakest level since 2019 at USD 7.4 bn, but things picked up in 4Q, with exits during the quarter accounting for nearly 72% of full-year exit value, which could signal some momentum in the exit pipeline this year.

Tech continued to draw outsized attention: IT-related PE investments rose 14.7% y-o-y to USD 1.4 bn, buoyed by standout transactions like Arcapita and DGPays’ USD 385 mn acquisition of Mashreq’s NeoPay. Oman also emerged as a bright spot, notching two of the region’s largest transactions, including Apollo’s USD 600 mn acquisition of 50% of Vale Oman Distribution Center.

Cross-border interest propped up the numbers: MENA-based investors were involved in USD 56.7 bn worth of European PE transactions last year, marking an all-time high, led by Adnoc’s USD 16.3 bn proposed takeover of Germany’s Covestro. The numbers point to MENA players’ growing interest in broadening their geographical footprint, even as foreign limited partners (LPs) ramped up activity in the region.

Who’s pulling the strings? Sovereign wealth funds, namely UAE’s Mubadala Investment Company, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), were among the most active regional players in non-MENA PE transactions over the last seven years. Bahrain’s Investcorp and Tunisia’s Africinvest rounded out the top five.

Sector-focused strategies also gained traction, with our friends at EFG Hermes closing a USD 300 mn Saudi Education Fund targeting private schools, and real estate funds bouncing back with USD 1.2 bn raised, led by Cenomi Centers and GIB Capital’s SAR 1 bn Real Estate Fund. The trend signals a shift toward fewer, larger vehicles with clearer mandates, as the region positions itself to absorb and deploy capital at scale.

VENTURE CAPITAL-

On an annual basis, VC activity declined 33% y-o-y to USD 2.8 bn across 678 transactions amid a tougher funding environment and more cautious investor sentiment. The UAE led regional activity, accounting for over 30% of transactions, while Saudi Arabia posted a 41.6% increase in transaction count to 143 in 2024. Meanwhile, regional VC fundraising rose 49.7% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn.

Similar to the PE side of things, 4Q marked a positive end to a lackluster year: MENA-based VCs closed USD 1.2 bn in transaction value during 4Q 2024 — the highest quarterly total since 4Q 2023 — according to PitchBook’s 2025 MENA Private Capital Market Review. A major contributor was the USD 500 mn round raised by Turkish martech platform Insider, led by US-based General Atlantic.

Who are the most active players? Since 2018, the most active global VC investors in MENA have been 500 Global (232 deals), Flat6Labs (111), and Wamda Capital (73). MENA-based investors have also been active abroad, with VentureSouq (272), Kube VC (259), and Morningstar Ventures (201) being among the most prominent in international VC transactions. In 2024, MENA investors participated in a record USD 41.2 bn in North American VC transaction value.

LOOKING AHEAD-

The 2025 outlook for PE in MENA is broadly bullish, underpinned by deepening regional capital markets, expanding multi-asset strategies, and an ongoing push by governments to position the region as a global investment magnet. Still, geopolitics could throw a wrench in momentum, potentially weighing on global risk appetite.

Private market fundraising more generally in the region is projected to rise over USD 20 bn in 2025, supported by the growth of fund managers seeking several asset classes, expanding regional tech hubs, and the greater use of private capital markets. The region’s favorable tax and business policies are projected to attract capital, with fundraising set to be driven by local and international LPs and sizable government capital.

EGX30	32,512	-1.3% (YTD: +9.3%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 49.71	Sell 49.85
USD (CIB)	Buy 49.72	Sell 49.82
Interest rates (CBE)	24.00% deposit	25.00% lending
Tadawul	10,841	-1.5% (YTD: -9.9%)
ADX	9564	-1.3% (YTD: +1.5%)
DFM	5365	-1.9% (YTD: +4.0%)
S&P 500	5977	-1.1% (YTD: +1.6%)
FTSE 100	8851	-0.4% (YTD: +8.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5290	-1.3% (YTD: +8.1%)
Brent crude	USD 74.23	+7.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.58	+4.0%
Gold	USD 3452.80	+1.5%
BTC	USD 1044,940.10	-0.6% (YTD: +12.2%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	877.27	+0.1% (YTD: +12.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	144.23	-0.1% (YTD: +3.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	20.82	+15.5% (YTD: +20.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.4 bn (12.4% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 9.3% YTD.

In the green: Emaar Misr (+2.3%), Eastern Company (+1.1%), and Egypt Aluminum (+0.9%).

In the red: ADIB (-4.3%), Palm Hills Development (-4.1%), and Egypt Kuwait Holding -EGP (-3.2%).

CALENDAR

JUNE

MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line

Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

12-16 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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