US visa ban, part LXXIII

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What We're Tracking Today

Egypt wants to import more Israeli gas starting next month

Happy Thursday to you all, wonderful people. We have a nice, tight little issue for you this morning as the first full workweek of the new year eases to a close.

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The big story this morning: We’ve just been hit by another Trump immigration clampdown. We’re one of 75 countries from which applications to immigrate to the US will not be processed, though it seems visitor visas are still moving through the system — for now.

In more positive news: A plan to boost our sales of electricity to Libya is the latest in our push to become the premier energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean, we exclusively report. The news comes just as we’re about to start testing a wider connection to the Saudi grid — and after we lined up natural gas sales to Lebanon and Syria.

MEANWHILE- The Finance Ministry is heading back to global debt markets with a Eurobond issuance that it hopes could raise as much as USD 2 bn and lock in financing at a much more attractive price than at any time in the past few years. And you can reassure your teen: Policymakers are not mulling an Aussie-style social media ban. Both stories are exclusives you’ll read only in EnterpriseAM.

AND- Goodbye, Afcon dream: The Pharaohs’ pursuit of an eighth Afcon title came to an end last night after a 1-0 defeat to Senegal in the semi-finals. Egypt will face Nigeria on Saturday for the bronze. Senegal is now set to face host nation Morocco — who beat Nigeria in a 4-2 penalty shootout — in the final this Sunday.

WEATHER- Cairo is in for another foggy morning and a high of 19°C today. You can expect to see an overnight low of 12°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Watch this space

MARKETING — The NTRA is taking premium short codes to the auction block. Starting Monday, 26 January, the National Telecom Regulatory Authority will launch an auction platform to sell three-, five-, and six-digit numbers, moving away from administrative allocation and toward a transparent price-discovery model, the authority announced at a presser attended by EnterpriseAM.

Opening bids for top-tier numbers will range from EGP 220k to EGP 320k, while six-digit numbers aimed at SMEs will start from EGP 80k.

Do you want to bid? You’ll need to pay a 10% deposit by 21 January.

Mobile phone numbers could be next: The NTRA is mulling whether to extend the auction model to individual mobile numbers, a move that would formalize the grey market for VIP phone numbers that currently exists on platforms such as Dubizzle.

It’s smart policy: The Madbouly government has for more than three years now been on a drive to both “digitize all the things” and wring maximum revenue out of anything with a market value. All the better that they’re doing so transparently in this case.

ENERGY — The government is in talks to increase Israeli gas imports by some 150k cf / d in February, a government source tells EnterpriseAM. The addition would bring our total imports of Israeli gas to 1.15-1.25 bcf / d. The additional volume would flow despite the ongoing standoff between the two governments over the “Israel first” clauses added to the USD 35 bn gas agreement.

We could hear more about the supply bump and the gas agreement soon with officials from Israel reportedly in Cairo this week to try to work out the gas agreement.

NBFIs — The Financial Regulatory Authority issued a final warning to every company it regulates: You have until 31 March 2026 to file your share registries with Misr Central Clearing, Depository and Registry (MCDR). Failure to comply will result in the suspension of all regulatory services, the authority said in a circular (pdf). The requirement for companies to deposit shares centrally was technically introduced in 2018.

This move is designed to digitize ownership structures across the non-bank sector. By forcing shares into MCDR, the regulator ensures a single source of truth for ownership, making it harder to obscure shareholding structures and easier for the FRA to monitor capital flows and governance.

Morning must read

How do you build a resilient banking system? That’s the question CIB CEO Hisham Ezz Al Arab tackles in a piece written for the World Economic Forum ahead of its annual meeting next week, which runs Monday through Friday next week (19-23 January). Hisham emphasizes that “the resilience of a country is inseparable from the resilience of its banking system,” highlighting the importance of shockproofing the financial sector.

Who’s going to Davos? About 3k business leaders, senior government officials, and leaders of civil society, including about 65 world leaders.

US President Donald Trump is going, signaling that WEF is back after a season (or three) in the wilderness. He’s bringing along the largest-ever US delegation with five cabinet secretaries slated to join him. On the corporate side, the 65 heads of state / government leaders and 850 CEOs who swiped right on their invites is also a record, organizers claim.

Other world leaders attending: Canadian PM Mark Carney (fresh off stops in China and Qatar), Qatari PM Mohamed Al Thani, and Syria’s Ahmed Al Sharaa are all on the list of confirmed attendees. There’s no word this morning if President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be attending.

From the C-suite: Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, newly appointed Meta vice-chair Dina Powell McCormick, and Palantir’s Alex Karp are on the tech-heavy list of business leaders slated to be there.

Tap or click here for the primer on who else is going and how you can follow along, if you’re so inclined.

Smart policy

A new mobile app aims to do what decades of administrative reforms haven’t: Force 12 ministries to coordinate in real time to help businesses and investors navigate the bureaucracy. The newly launched Investor Support mobile app (Android | iOS, currently in Arabic only) will act as a centralized tracking system for the Ministerial Group for Industrial Development. By hard-linking the app to 12 ministries — including finance, investment, electricity, and oil — alongside the Central Bank of Egypt, the Industry Ministry aims to create a single point of contact for complex issues that usually require an investor to navigate multiple agencies at the same time.

Why it matters: See this in the same light as the NTRA’s public short-number auction system — part of a drive to digitize all the things. The first big push came with taxes and e-invoices. Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Hassan El Khatib told us on stage at last fall’s EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum that his goal was to digitalize every service a business or investor would need to set up shop or run a business in the country.

Data point

USD 614 mn — the total value of funding raised by Egyptian startups in 2025, according to data from Africa : The Big Deal. This puts Egypt in second place on the continent with a 20% share of total funding, behind only Kenya’s increasingly lively startup scene, which raked in USD 985 mn.

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The big story abroad

We’re getting déjà vu with all of the new tariff announcements coming our way from the US — as if a halt to visa processing wasn’t enough for one morning.

The latest — following the threat of a 25% tariff on Iran’s “business partners” earlier this week — is a 25% tariff on the sale of AI chips to China. Included on the list are Nvidia’s H200 and a similar chip from AMD, which rely heavily on TSMC for manufacturing before they’re imported into the US and transshipped elsewhere. US President Donald Trump described it as getting a 25% “cut” of the sale of the chips to China, after the government reversed a policy prohibiting the export of chips to the country last year.

^^The must-read on the topic: White House sets tariffs to take 25% cut of Nvidia and AMD sales in China

Meanwhile, US banks are reeling from Trump’s call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, with executives from Citigroup and JP Morgan saying it could be detrimental to the economy.

PLUS- OpenAI is continuing its diversification drive, saying it will source chips from AI startup Cerebras in a USD 10 bn multi-year agreement. It earlier lined up supply from AMD and Broadcom earlier. Also: Luxury retailer Saks has now filed for bankruptcy after finalizing a USD 1.75 bn financing package to keep its stores open.

IN IRAN- The US has pulled some of its personnel from its bases in the Middle East after Tehran threatened to retaliate if the US strikes Iran. More than 2k people are believed to have been killed by security forces amid ongoing anti-regime protests there.

US freezes immigration visa processing for Egyptians

Egypt is one of 75 countries facing an indefinite freeze on US immigrant visa processing starting next week. An internal State Department memo first picked up by Fox News says the Trump administration will pause the issuance of immigrant visas for dozens of nations — including Egypt, Iran, and Russia — effective Wednesday, 21 January. The “indefinite pause” is part of an aggressive application a provision aimed at barring applicants the administration claims are likely to go on the dole in one form or another. Reuters has since confirmed the news with the State Department.

“Immigrant visa processing from these 75 countries will be paused while the State Department reassesses immigration processing procedures to prevent the entry of foreign nationals who would take welfare and public benefits,” a State Department spokesperson said.

You should be fine if you’re looking to secure a non-immigrant visa, but travelers should expect heightened scrutiny under the new vetting standards — including a deep dive into your socials.

This move marks an escalation from the “heightened vetting” status we’ve held sinceJune. While Egypt avoided the full and partial travel ban lists last year, it has remained under a “possible future suspension” designation, subject to rigorous 90-day reviews of our security cooperation.

Egypt, Libya fast-track 2 GW power link in boost to reconstruction efforts — and the Egyptian players taking part

Egypt and Libya have resumed talks for a massive increase in the scale of their electricity interconnection, aiming to take it from about 150 MW in capacity today to a 2 GW line that could help solve eastern Libya’s chronic electricity problems, a senior Egyptian government official tells EnterpriseAM.

A ramp-up of power exports from Egypt could be one of the keys to eastern Libya’s reconstruction and will be welcomed by Egyptian construction contractors working on bns of USD worth of infrastructure projects there. Egyptian firms are spearheading the rebuilding of Benghazi and Derna, but projects are hamstrung by a fragmented Libyan grid and chronic blackouts.

Egypt-Libya ties are deepening again: Libya announced late last year plans to establish a dry port as a prelude to a joint free zone with Egypt. Officials there have said they expect to award new contracts to Egyptian contractors to expand infrastructure projects across the east.

In context: Eastern Libya has done a better job managing its smaller grid than has the country’s west, which is struggling to cope with higher demand. An expanded connection to Egypt will help drive growth and recovery in the east.

A bigger connection between the two grids is the latest in our drive to become the premier energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Sisi administration has spent EGP 960 bn creating surplus installed generation capacity — with another EGP 136.3 bn planned to boost average power generation to 235 bn kWh by June. That sets us up to export energy to regional partners, while an expanded grid of cross-border links also allows us to import and swap power if excess is available elsewhere.

What’s next? An agreement to boost the Libya interconnection should be finalized and signed by June, our source tells us, after technical studies and financing arrangements wrap. Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi are moving forward next month with final trials for a 3 GW interconnection project that should go live in April.

Egypt looks to lock in lower rates with up to USD 2 bn Eurobond sale in 1Q

The Finance Ministry is in advanced talks with transaction advisors to issue between USD 1.0 to USD 1.5 bn in Eurobonds as early as this month, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. The ministry is looking to capitalize on a sharp narrowing of risk premiums, with five-year credit default swaps on Egyptian debt falling below 270 bps — their lowest level in six years.

Why it matters: Yields on Egypt’s international bonds have retreated by 300-400 bps y-o-y, offering a window to raise capital at a much friendlier price. Debt service currently accounts for the vast majority of public spending.

The ministry could boost the size of the issuance as high as USD 2 bn if investor appetite is strong, our source told us. The ministry also plans to issue USD 500 mn worth of green samurai bonds before the fiscal year comes to a close in June as it looks to diversify its sources of international funding.

The move comes as Egypt shores up its liquidity, with EUR 1 bn from the EU due to land in our coffers today, Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat announced earlier this week. Meanwhile, the country is awaiting an IMF board meeting to unlock a combined USD 2.7 bn from the fifth and sixth reviews of its loan program, along with the first review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

When is the IMF meeting to talk about us? We’re not yet on the executive board’s public meeting agenda, which as of this morning stretches through 23 January.

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World Bank maintains Egypt’s growth forecast for FY 2025-26 at 4.3%

The World Bank has held its growth forecast for Egypt for FY 2025-2026 at 4.3% y-o-y and penciled 4.8% for the next fiscal year, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report (pdf). The global lender said the economy is finally turning the corner with the easing of import and foreign currency restrictions boosting private demand.

Why it matters: The outlook signals that the bank thinks our recovery is now baked in — the international financial organization hiked its outlook for the fiscal year by 0.1 percentage points last October. The transition from a state-led to private-sector-led growth is gaining traction, it said.

Cooling inflation and easing global financial conditions are expected to finally let private consumption breathe, the bank notes. It said it also expects monetary easing and ongoing structural reforms to support a pickup in private investment.

Can we please *not* be the “MNA”?

Growth in what the World Bank apparently calls the “MNA” — Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MNA) region — is set to strengthen to 3.6% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.9% in 2027, up from 3.1% in 2025, according to the report. This acceleration is primarily driven by oil exporters, where a planned expansion in production is expected to “outweigh the impact of lower oil prices.”

Growth in oil-importing economies is projected to edge up to 4% this year and next as headline inflation stabilizes, allowing for potential monetary policy easing that could support domestic demand.

The downside: The primary risk to the outlook is a "re-escalation of armed conflicts in the region" or an abrupt decline in global risk appetite that could trigger capital outflows from vulnerable frontier markets including (you guessed it) Egypt and Lebanon.

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Egypt isn’t mulling over a social media ban for teenagers

Tell your kids not to worry — there’s no legislation in the works to ban under-16s from using social media, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM in response to reports that legislation in the image of Australia’s recent ban was in the works. Some members of parliament have been kicking around the idea, but it hasn’t been discussed by the government, we’re told.

And it doesn’t look like that’s changing anytime soon, with the CIT Ministry instead taking the position that technology should be embraced for all ages in a positive way, our source added. Social media and AI are changing the world and the economy we live in, the source said, so the CIT ministry’s emphasis is on how to foster digital literacy, programming skills, and the use of AI starting as early as age eight.

Government agencies are still keeping an eye out for what our source called “harmful content and uses,” noting that officials will block websites and apps that could cause harm to kids.

In context: The government recently issued the executive regulations for the Personal Data Protection Law, which include clear rules in collecting children’s personal data. The regulations ban the collection of data from children under 15 without parental consent.

The international press is taking note of Siwa’s hidden charm — and the threats posed by tourism

Siwa is back in the international spotlight, but the good press comes with a side of caution. An AFP report highlights the delicate balancing act facing Egypt’s “hidden oasis” as a post-pandemic tourism surge threatens the very isolation that defines it. While the influx of visitors is a boon for the local economy, the report warns that the oasis’s unique culture and fragile ecological system — including its 200 natural springs and historic architecture — are under increasing pressure from modern development and mass tourism.

The story is a familiar one for the tourism sector: How to monetize a remote asset without destroying the mystery that makes it valuable. The takeaway here is the growing tension between the state’s aggressive push for tourist footfall and the sustainability of untouched destinations. Much like the environmental concerns raised over the Ras Hankorab development on the Red Sea, the Siwa narrative suggests that Egypt’s path to 30 mn tourists by 2030 will require more sophisticated management to prevent cultural and environmental erosion.

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It’s business as usual in the Suez Canal

SCA’s rapid-response PR masks a quiet day for Suez traffic

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) moved quickly yesterday to reassure markets following the precautionary grounding of a cargo vessel. A cargo carrier named the Fener was “grounded … outside the Canal’s navigation channel” in a waiting area after taking on cargo at East Port Saido port. The SCA said the ship’s captain sought permission to ground the vessel after it developed a hole in one of its compartments and started taking on water. The SCA is understandably sensitive to minor maritime glitches after the Ever Given fiasco in 2021.

Acrow Misr moves forward with its voluntary EGX delisting

Scaffolding and formwork manufacturer Acrow Misr has filed for approval to delist its shares from the EGX after getting the green light from the company's general assembly, according to a sta tement from the EGX. The company’s board first approved the voluntary delisting in December, giving shareholders who choose to exit after the company’s delisting the option to have their shares repurchased at EGP 129.29 each — higher than the EGP 100 per share maximum price it previously set to finance the buyout.

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Oil is trading on risk again

Oil markets haven’t had a breather since the year started, lurching from one geopolitical shock to the next. The focus has now pivoted from the US military’s capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro — which briefly signaled a return of heavy crude to the market — to the ongoing upheaval in Iran. With reports that Tehran’s crackdown on nationwide protests has left over 2k dead and US President Donald Trump signaling a potential military response, the “geopolitical risk premium” has returned to oil markets.

Markets moved accordingly: Oil reached its highest level so far this year yesterday, with Brent climbing to USD 66.10 per barrel, after pausing temporarily on Tuesday as Venezuelan crude went on water. Citi also raised its near-term Brent view to some USD 70, framing the move as risk-driven, not the result of lost supply.

What to watch for: While the events in Venezuela didn’t have a meaningful impact on Brent prices, the spread between Brent and WTI is now at an eight-month high.

Why Iran matters — even now

Iran’s oil industry is no longer the giant it once was. Years of sanctions and underinvestment have capped production at some 3.3 mn bbl / d, roughly 3% of global supply. But the country still punches above its weight — not because of volumes alone, but because of where and how its oil moves.

Around 80-90% of Iranian crude exports flow to China — some 1.4-2 mn bbl / d — mostly via opaque trading networks and the so-called “dark fleet” of aging tankers. By late December, more than 50 mn bbl of Iranian crude were moving through these shadow routes — the highest level in over two years, Bloomberg cites Kpler data. Official customs data may not show Iranian barrels since mid-2022, but ship-tracking data does.

Supply is now stuck: Iran’s floating storage has climbed to some 166 mn bbl as buyers delay unloading and shipping becomes more complicated, Reuters ’ data shows.

Where the risk shows up

The spread that says more than the headline: Brent’s premium over Dubai crude widened on Tuesday to its highest level since July. For our neck of the woods, this spread is the most important “tell” in the market. When Brent carries a heavy premium, it means global traders are not chasing demand; they are hedging against a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy artery through which 20 mn bbl/d flows.

In effect, the market is assigning a higher value to barrels perceived as “safe” (Brent/WTI), while Middle Eastern crude — physically closer to the potential conflict — is being discounted. For regional producers, this is a double-edged sword: Crude is gaining buyers in Asia because it is cheaper, but benchmarks aren’t capturing the price upside that the “risk” should theoretically provide.

The Gulf is trying to tamp down risks: Behind the scenes, Riyadh, Muscat, and Doha have privately warned Washington that an attempt to topple the Iranian regime would rattle global markets beyond repair. The market is currently betting that the US will opt for surgical “risk” over a full-scale “supply disruption.”

The macro tripwire

This is where oil stops being background noise and starts behaving like a macro shock: A USD 80 / bbl world would likely trigger a synchronized global selloff, Interactive Brokers notes. That, in turn, could limit the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates, removing a key support that has lifted risk assets over the past year. That vulnerability is already there, with three consecutive years of equity gains leaving markets exposed to an oil price shock and near-term correction.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are nearly uniformly in the red in early trading, with the exception of South Korea’s Kospi index, which is up less than 1% this morning. Japan’s Nikkei snapped a brief rally that pushed it to a record high yesterday, while the Shanghai index, Hang Seng, and CSI 300 are all trading down. Wall Street looks set to open in the red again later today, extending losses after falling for a second session yesterday.

EGX30	43,058	-1.4% (YTD: +2.9%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.27	Sell 47.41
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.27	Sell 47.37
Interest rates (CBE)	20.00% deposit	21.00% lending
Tadawul	10,945	+0.5% (YTD: +4.3%)
ADX	10,037	-0.5% (YTD: +0.5%)
DFM	6,262	-0.9% (YTD: +3.6%)
S&P 500	6,927	-0.5% (YTD: +1.2%)
FTSE 100	10,184	+0.5% (YTD: +2.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,005	-0.4% (YTD: +3.7%)
Brent crude	USD 64.82	-2.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.10	-0.5%
Gold	USD 4,609	-0.6%
BTC	USD 96,606	+1.4% (YTD: +10.3%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	999.97	+0.1% (YTD: +0.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.74	+0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.75	+4.8% (YTD: +12.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.7 bn (12.2% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 2.9% YTD.

In the green: E-finance (+3.7%), Valmore Holding -USD (+0.9%), and Palm Hills Developments (+0.5%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-4.1%), Misr Cement (-4.0%), and Juhayna (-3.7%).

CALENDAR

2026

JANUARY

22 January (Thursday): ESBC SEEING webinar, From Zurich to Cairo: How Global Executive Research Shapes Tomorrow’s Leadership.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

3 February (Tuesday): S&P Global to release PMI figures for January.

10 February (Tuesday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for January.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting of 2026.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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