Good morning, all. It doesn’t look like calm is on the horizon anytime soon, as the regional war took a sharp turn overnight with Washington entering into direct confrontation with Tehran. Just hours ago, the US struck three Iranian nuclear sites. We’ll all be watching closely over the coming days to see how this escalation plays out — both here at home and on the global stage.
SETTING THE TONE-
“The situation is under control and the budget has strong buffers,” Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told EnterpriseAM in his first public comments following the war between Iran and Israel. The government is carefully monitoring current developments and has “a flexible budget and robust reserves that will be deployed with extreme precision,” he added.
We’ve faced similar challenges before with Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and in those cases we moved quickly to secure the country’s basic needs, he told us. This time round, the country has also been proactive in booking in energy imports, with the country effectively hedged against the possibility of further volatility in oil prices. We’re also about to wrap up the fiscal year, having raised more than EGP 2 tn in taxes throughout the 12-month period.
Diversification will also help us manage rising interest rates on public debt, with sukuk, fixed- and variable-return instruments, among other debt instruments set to minimize the impact of events, Kouchouk explained.
PSA-
We’re in store for another shorter-than-usual workweek, with this Thursday off in observance of the Islamic New Year, according to a decision from Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly.
And we’ve got another long weekend the week after too, as the twelfth anniversary of the 30 June Revolution will be commemorated a few days before on Thursday, 3 July.
WEATHER- It’s another warm — but not too warm — day in Cairo today, with a high of 35°C, a low of 23°C, and partly cloudy skies, according to our favorite weather app.
It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C, a low of 21°C, and partly cloudy skies forecast for the day.
** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?
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Sahel – what was once Egypt’s summer escape has become an economic hub, social ecosystem, and regional travel hotspot. And we’re going to help you decode its rapid evolution with EnterpriseAM Destination Sahel.
In a special four-part summer series we’re taking the insights you’ve come to expect of us seaside. Think everything from Ras El Hekma’s impact and investment opportunities to exclusive interviews with key players. And it wouldn’t be Sahel season without a sprinkling of what’s shaking up socially.
Expect us in your inbox Tuesday, 24 June.
See you, Sahel-side.
EGP WATCH-
The EGP weakened against the greenback again on Thursday, falling around EGP 0.10-0.12 by the end of trading. The USD was sold for around EGP 50.70-50.73 and bought for EGP 50.60 at state and private banks.
Ongoing uncertainty in the region is continuing to weigh on the exchange rates, a source in the banking sector told EnterpriseAM, noting that the Middle East is currently seeing investment outflows as investors seek more stable markets. Interbank USD transactions jumped to around USD 2.5 bn over the week — considerably higher than the weekly average of nearly USD 1 bn.
DEBT WATCH-
The Central Bank of Egypt sold EGP 38.5 bn in 6- and 12-month EGP-denominated treasury bills in Thursday’s auction; the amount sold is less than half the EGP 80 bn the bank was after, according to central bank data. The bank sold EGP 24.0 bn worth of six-month t-bills at an average yield of 28.27%, down and EGP 14.5 bn worth of one-year bills at an average yield of 25.23%.
Investors demanded yields several percentage points higher than the central bank was willing to accept — they had placed bids for EGP 66.7 bn worth of six-month bills at an average yield of 29.269% and bids for EGP 62.0 bn for one-year bills at an average yield of 27.113%.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- The government is looking to lower the incoming stamp tax on EGX transactions to 0.1% for both buyers and sellers, down from an initially proposed 0.125%, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM. The move to lower the proposed tax is part of broader efforts to stimulate trading and accelerate IPO activity, the official added.
What’s next: The proposed legislative changes are set to be finalized in a meeting with the Financial Regulatory Authority next week, the source said.
READ MORE- We dive deeper into the planned stamp tax on EGX transactions in a story published last month. Check it out here.
#2- Israel gas flows are back on — just about. Israel resumed gas exports on Thursday after a six-day pause, with most surplus energy heading to Jordan, while Egypt received “tiny volumes,” an Israeli Energy Ministry source told Reuters on the day.
As of Thursday, Israel’s Leviathan field remained shut, with the limited esports coming from its Tamar field, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources.
#3- Egypt will receive a fourth LNG regasification vessel in August — which we understand will be the vessel booked from Turkish state-owned energy firm BOTAS — to help stabilize and diversify energy supplies amid current global challenges, according to a cabinet statement. The awaited unit will be deployed in Damietta, Oil Minister Karim Badawi said.
DATA POINT-
Egypt was the top destination for FDI in Africa and Middle East, with USD 47 bn in FDI coming into the country, according to the UN’s latest WorldInvestment Report (pdf). The country also ranked ninth globally for inflows.
This marks a significant jump from Egypt’s position in 2023, when it landed in the 32nd spot with USD 10 bn in FDI.
But there’s little mystery as to why Egypt so quickly climbed the ranks, with “this exceptional growth … largely attributable to a single megaproject: the Ras El Hekma urban development,” the report said.
HAPPENING TOMORROW-
U Consumer Finance — which owns and operates the Valu brand — will begin trading on the EGX tomorrow under the ticker VALU.CA at a reference price of EGP 0.777, according to an EGX bulletin (pdf). In its first session, the share price will be allowed to move between a floor of EGP 0.10 and a ceiling of EGP 7.40, with no temporary trading halt mechanisms in place.
** In today’s issue, we’ve got the first part of a one-on-one interview with Valu CEO Walid Hassouna to discuss the firm’s growth strategy, and what else it has in the pipeline. Check out the story in the issue below.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
The Finance Ministry is set to finalize a new package of custom facilities within the coming weeks, with a separate real estate tax relief package expected in 1Q FY 2025-2026, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan are dominating the headlines across the globe this morning, which Trump said in a televised address had been “totally obliterated” (watch, runtime; 4:12). “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater, and a lot easier,” Trump warned.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres called out the action as a “dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge,” and further warned that without a diplomatic solution the conflict could further spiral out of control. Criticism also came from within the ranks of the Republican Party, with a select few, including Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie, who criticized the strike without congressional approval as unconstitutional. (Washington Post | Reuters | Associated Press | Financial Times | Bloomberg)
AND- Columbia University graduate and pro-Palestine activist Mahmoud Khalil has been released on bail after a federal judge called his three-month detention in the immigration facility unconstitutional. Khalil, who has become a symbol of Trump’s crackdown on both foreign residents and those who have voiced pro-Palestinian support, was reunited with his son and wife and vowed to carry on advocating for Palestinian rights. (Reuters | New York Times | Bloomberg | Guardian)
PLUS- While over in the business news, Trump is once again flirting with the possibility of firing US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, saying in a post on Truth Social that, “Maybe, just maybe, I’ll have to change my mind about firing him?” The comment is the latest in a string of criticisms Trump directed towards Powell, attacking him for not lowering interest rates, which were kept steady for a fourth meeting last week. (Reuters)




