“The forced displacement of the Palestinian people is an injustice that we cannot take part in,” says El Sisi

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What We're Tracking Today

US-, UK-linked ships began steady return to the Suez Canal following ceasefire

Good morning, all, and congratulations for making it to the end of January. To wrap up a busy first month of the year, we’ve got a suitably busy issue for you this morning. We’ve got plenty of local business news to get through and strong words from El Sisi rejecting in clear terms the forced displacement of Palestinians into Egypt or anywhere else — more on this and more in the news well below.

We’re struggling to fit everything in this morning, so let’s jump right in and not waste any more digital ink.

PSA-

WEATHER- The sun is out in Cairo today, with a high of 22°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s an overcast day in Alexandria, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C.

And over the weekend, expect to see temperatures stay at around the same point in both the capital and Alexandria.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Six US- and UK-linked ships have passed through the Red Sea safely since 19 January, after Yemen’s Houthis announced they would only target Israeli-linked vessels following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, Bloomberg reports citing Joint Maritime Information Center data.

But six ships is just a drop in the bucket when compared to traffic the canal was used to, with shipping giants Maersk, MSC, and Mitsui OSK still avoiding the Red Sea, citing security risks.

** We dove into if, when, and how Suez Canal traffic will pick up following the Gaza ceasefire in a story published earlier this month. Check out the story here

#2- The EGX is considering launching a T-bills index to meet rising investor interest, according to an EGX statement (pdf). The proposal is being developed in collaboration with the Central Bank of Egypt and will focus on longer-term issuances, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed sources.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Egyptian and Iraqi governments will today ink a number of cooperation agreements across various sectors — energy, housing, taxes, customs, and transportation — today during the final day of the Egyptian-Iraqi Joint Higher Committee meetings in Baghdad, four unnamed government sources told Asharq Business. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly will be in attendance to oversee the signing of the agreements and partake in discussions to secure mazut shipments from Iraq under favorable terms to meet domestic demand.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

Go Green to become 2025’s first new entrant on the EGX next week? Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery manufacturer Go Green for Agricultural Investment and Development aims to start trading on the EGX through a direct offering next week, Hashem El Sayed, CEO of financial advisor Odin Investments told Zawya. Go Green got the green light from the EGX’s listing committee to list its shares, amending its temporary listing status granted in July.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Investors and VCs will gather next week for the two-day Egypt VC Summit set to take place at the Sofitel Cairo Downtown Nile on 4-5 February, according to a joint statement (pdf) from the organizers. Hosted by the Egyptian Private Equity And Venture Capital Association and German development agency GIZ, the event will bring together global and regional investors to attend talks, network, and partake in roundtable discussions. You can check out the agenda on the website for the event.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

AI is on everyone’s minds this morning after Meta and Microsoft reported their earnings for 2024, and as the DeepSeek craze continues.

#1- Meta’s shares rebounded on CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s comments that Meta AI will become the most widely used AI in the industry this year, despite the company giving a disappointing sales forecast that had weighed on the stock earlier. The question now is again whether the company’s AI investments will pay off — especially after Chinese AI startup DeepSeek proved it is possible to create an AI model with a fraction of the cost. (Bloomberg | CNBC)

Speaking of DeepSeek, OpenAI said it has found evidence that the Chinese AI startup used its proprietary models to train its own large-language model, according to the Financial Times. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is looking at ways to further curb chip exports from Nvidia to China, Bloomberg reports.

#2- Microsoft’s shares tumbled 5% in afterhours trading after the tech giant reported slower growth than expected for its cloud business, despite the company beating revenue estimates. (Wall Street Journal | Barron’s)

In other earnings news, Tesla’s shares also rebounded on an optimistic forecast for growth in 2025, despite missing estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024. (Bloomberg | CNN)

OVER IN THE US, the White House revoked its freeze of federal aid due to legal challenges, though the administration still plans to cut spending to programs opposed by Trump. (Reuters)

AND IN SYRIA- The Syrian rebel group that ousted Bashar al Assad named its leader Ahmed Al Sharaa as the country’s new president for a transitional period, after the group dissolved the parliament, the military, and constitution. (Bloomberg | New York Times | AP)

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Gov’t to forego EGP 800 bn in tax revenues in favor of broader tax base

New SME tax system aims for broader tax base: The recently approved SME tax system could save taxpayers — and set the government back — some EGP 800 bn in foregone tax revenues, with 85% of taxpayers registered with the Egyptian Tax Authority set to benefit from the amended system, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The move is designed to bring more businesses from the informal economy into the official tax base — which will eventually lead to more tax revenues, the source explained.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

ICYMI: MPs on Monday gave their final approval to a draft law that replaces lump-sum tax on SME businesses with a variable tax rate ranging from 0.4-1.5% that covers income tax, VAT, duty tax, and others. The stated purpose of the draft bill is to support the SME sector, while also expanding the tax base and integrating the informal economy.

What are the new tax rates? Instead of a flat EGP 1-5k lump-sum tax based on businesses’ annual revenues, businesses will pay the following tax rates:

Businesses that have an annual revenue up to EGP 500k will pay a 0.4% tax;
Businesses that have an annual revenue between EGP 500k-2 mn will pay 0.5%;
Businesses that have an annual revenue between EGP 2-3 mn will pay 0.75%;
Businesses that have an annual revenue between EGP 3-15 mn will pay 1.0%;
Businesses that have an annual revenue between EGP 15-20 mn will pay 1.5% tax.

E-invoicing is now required: The new system requires registering with the Egyptian Tax Authority's e-invoicing system, the source told us.

What about the tax rate on employees? The government is also considering measures to lower employees’ tax burden and ensure that employees receive tax breaks comparable to those offered to business owners under the new SME tax framework. The government could do this by increasing the personal tax exemption limit by EGP 6k in conjunction with a higher zero-tax bracket, or by increasing the personal tax exemption limit to between EGP 10-12k with no change in the zero tax bracket, the source told EnterpriseAM.

Remember: Government sources told EnterpriseAM earlier this month that the Madbouly government is preparing a new social protection package that will contain raises in the minimum wage, tax thresholds, social protection coverage, and pensions. The Finance Ministry was looking into raising the personal income tax exemption threshold to EGP 65k — up from EGP 60k previously — while keeping other income brackets unchanged, our sources said at the time.

Customs Authority to release additional cars held at ports for violations

Gov’t to release all cars held at ports over ACI violations: The Egyptian Customs Authority is releasing passenger vehicles that have been held at ports for violating the registration rules of the Advanced Cargo Information (ACI) system, according to a decision by the authority on Tuesday, seen by EnterpriseAM. Owners of the cars must pay owed customs and fees plus up to EGP 10k in fines per vehicle to take advantage of the new policy.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Background: Cars had been piling up in Egypt’s ports over the past few months after the authorities refused to release cars whose owners had tried to dodge the ACI’s passenger car registration restrictions by registering their passenger cars under other categories.

This marks the second release of stranded cars this month: The Egyptian Customs Authority (ECA) earlier this month began procedures to release roughly 30k vehicles stranded at the country’s ports that violated previous personal import or disabled-accessible vehicle import regulations.

Vehicles released in the prior wave had to meet certain criteria to pass customs, including being shipped before 27 December 2024, a SWIFT payment transfer confirmation proving payment was made via a bank abroad before 25 June 2024, and a fine.

This newest wave of car releases comes as the government seeks to limit personal car imports in a bid to support auto industry localization. In December, the Investment Ministry issued a decision introducing new rules for personal car imports to limit USD outflows and support the localization of the auto industry, capping personal imports at one car every five years and requiring importers to provide proof of financial solvency and make payment through an Egyptian bank.

Demand for passenger cars has remained strong despite rising prices, with passenger car sales registering a 14.8% increase m-o-m to 8.5k vehicles in November according to the latest figures from the Automotive Marketing Information Council (AMIC).

Remittances from Egyptians abroad rise 65.4% y-o-y to USD 2.6 bn in November

Remittances from Egyptians abroad continued their upward pace, hitting USD 2.6 bn in November, jumping 65.4% y-o-y, according to a statement from the Central Bank of Egypt. It’s also an encouraging picture in the longer term, with the first five months of the current fiscal year witnessing a 77% y-o-y rise in remittances to USD 13.8 bn and inflows in the first 11 months of 2024 up 47.1% y-o-y to USD 26.3 bn.

It’s a very different picture month-on-month, with remittances in November down just over 10% from October’s USD 2.9 bn. But the one-off drop should be little cause for concern, economists and analysts told EnterpriseAM, including economist Mona Bedeir, who told us that a “slight monthly decline” should only worry us if it “sustains for the next few months.” HC Securities’ Heba Mounir agreed with Bedeir, noting that “it is just a one-off drop, and should not be considered alarming as long as there is no trend.” “When it comes to tracking remittances, we look at three trends. Namely, the monthly reading performance y-o-y and both the quarterly and annual inflows y-o-y,” Bedeir explains.

By the numbers: Remittances are expected to make up 8% of the country’s entire GDP in 2024, up from 5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2022. In terms of current account inflows, Egyptians abroad sending FX home are expected to account for 35% of inflows in 2024, up from the 25% recorded the year prior, but still a long way off the 45% recorded in 2020 before remittance inflows starting falling with the onset of the FX crisis and appearance of the parallel market taking remittance flows away from official channels.

You probably knew this already, but the GCC is our biggest source of remittances, with most of the estimated 14 mn Egyptians working abroad based in the Gulf. Leading the pack as the main source of incoming FX is Saudi Arabia with 2.5 mn Egyptians, followed by the UAE and Kuwait with around 600k each.

If you’re looking for a reason why remittances have surged, look no further than the EGP float. Egyptians abroad have started sending more of their remittances through official channels after the float of the EGP in March put an end to the parallel market that had pushed remittance flows through unofficial channels. Remittances are an important source of FX for the country and the state is working to increase flows by 10% each year to reach USD 53 bn by 2030.

The government is hoping to encourage the necessary tech landscape to encourage further remittance inflows, including through the central bank’s December launch of a new service allowing instant fund transfers to Egypt from anywhere in the world. The new service allows users in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain — and will add more countries to the list soon.

An uptick in remittances is needed more than ever, considering the roughly USD 7 bndrop in Suez Canal revenues last year spurred on by Houthi attacks on passing vessels that saw the world’s major shipping lines reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Increased remittance inflows will help reassure policymakers that even if the anticipated post-ceasefire return of traffic through the canal does not materialize, there are still other sources of FX it can tap to fund commodity imports, meet external debt obligations, keep the parallel market at bay, assure investors they can repatriate earnings, and improve FX liquidity and by extension the stability of the EGP.

But remittances and the Suez Canal aren’t the only sources of FX — and FX liquidity — with the government looking to other sources including tourism, FDI, and exports.

Regular readers of EnterpriseAM will know that there’s plenty in the works to increase tourism numbers, with tourism redevelopment projects, incentives to build hotels, a push to increase Egypt-bound flights, and other initiatives often coming up through the news well. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly earlier this week appeared to return to the government’s previous target of attracting 30 mn tourists a year by 2030, up from a recently revised-down target of 25 mn.

FDI also plays a big role in the government’s plans to bring in FX and shore up the current account deficit, with the newly government laid out a target to increase FDI by 14% every year. While the current account deficit has taken a beating on a drop in Suez Canal earnings, rising oil imports, and a widening non-oil trade deficit, FDI has been helping cushion the blow, rising nearly 20% y-o-y to USD 2.7 bn during the last quarter data was available.

Upping exports and cutting down the country’s import bill is seen as an important way to shore up FX liquidity, with the government hoping to have a roughly USD 10 bn trade surplus by 2030 that will be achieved by a 15-20% annual increase in export value to eventually teach USD 115.8 bn annually by the end of the decade.

VOLATILITY IN THE FX MARKET IS NOT NECESSARILY A CAUSE FOR CONCERN-

The EGP crossing the 50 mark against the greenback in December wasn’t the best way to close out the year, but the EGP has since been on the mend having regained against the USD. But the issue is more about a strengthening USD than it is a weakening EGP, with the election of Donald Trump on 4 November sending the greenback upwards, Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed told EnterpriseAM. Despite the continuing pressures and initial drop off, the EGP has narrowed its losses to just 2.5% since Trump was elected.

The national currency is also doing better against the USD than many world currencies, with the EUR now down 3.8% against the greenback, CAD having slipped 3.2%, and the GBP weakened 3.7% since we found we were in store for another Trump presidency. Pushing up the USD and other currencies down is anticipation of protectionist trade policies, the promise of deregulation, an increased likelihood of high interest rates for longer, and the USD being seen as a safe-haven asset from the uncertainty and chaos that now seem to be a trademark of a Trumpian White House.

There’s also plenty of local seasonal factors to take into account, including — but not limited to — Egypt always has a massive import bill kicking in two or three months ahead of Ramadan — a fact many of us know all too well by our shopping habits in the run up to the holy month. Similarly, in a country of 110 mn people, there’s 5-6 mn that qualify as wealthy who often take an end-of-year vacation. That’s like the entire population of Lebanon going on holiday and relying on FX to pay for hotels, meals, and unwanted souvenirs — enough of the fridge magnets, please.

The business calendar also plays a role, with many companies looking to acquire FX so they can pay it out in dividends to foreign investors as the year comes to a close. Businesses also look to build up their FX stock during the period as a way to manage FX losses or gains and prepare for 2025 expenses.

EFG Hermes-backed Spark Education Platform acquires majority stake of Riyadh’s Qimam El Hayat Int’l School

EFG Hermes-backed K-12 operator Spark Education Platform (SEP) inked definitive agreements to acquire a majority stake in Riyadh’s Qimam El Hayat International School, it said in statement (pdf). There’s no publicly available information about the transaction size.

Refresher: SEP is backed by the USD 300 mn Saudi Education Fund (SEF), which was launched in November 2024 by our friends at EFG Hermes. SEF plans to deploy its capital over the next three years, with a primary focus on the Kingdom, alongside its ventures in the UAE and Bahrain. The fund previously acquired seven schools under the Britus Education brand, four of which are in the Kingdom.

The rationale: “This move, coupled with our recently announced acquisition of four additional schools in Riyadh, positions SEP as a major player in the Saudi education sector,” SEP CEO Ahmed Wahby said. The transaction will increase “SEP’s portfolio to eight schools with over 10k enrolled students spreading across KSA, UAE, and Bahrain,” he added. The fund was launched to address the rising demand for private education, driven by a rapidly expanding student population expected to more than double under Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030.

What’s next? The move includes relocating the school to a new fit-for-purpose campus and boosting the K-12 institution’s student-capacity by 50% to 4.5k with the addition of launching two new buildings.

Eni resumes drilling in Egypt’s Zohr

It was a Wednesday abuzz with energy news, between Zohr going back online to fresh oil discoveries.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

DRILLING IN ZOHR RESUMES-

Eni resumes drilling in Zohr: Italian energy giant Eni has resumed drilling operations at the Zohr gas field — Egypt’s largest and the Mediterranean's largest-ever find — after the Saipem drillship arrived in Egyptian waters on Tuesday, the Oil Ministry said in a statement yesterday. Drilling activity is expected to proceed through 1Q 2025.

We knew this was coming: Oil Minister Karim Badawi last October said that drilling at the Zohr field would resume before the end of 2024. At the time he said that the government aims to increase production at the gas field by 220 mn cubic feet per day through drilling.

Remember: Production at the field declined from a peak of 2.8 bn cubic feet per day in 3Q 2021 to below 2.0 bn cf/d in 1H 2024.

DRAGON OIL STRIKES OIL-

UAE’s Dragon Oil struck oil at the East Crystal-1 exploratory well in the Gulf of Suez, the Oil Ministry said in a statement. Initial tests show output exceeding 2k barrels per day, while a formation with over 100 ft depth of potential reserves remains untested. The find locks in an 8 mn barrel pre-drill estimate, with potential for higher yield.

And there’s more to come: The Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company (GUPCO), which has taken over drilling activity, plans to drill two more wells, looking to add around 5k barrels per day to output, according to the statement.

Orascom Development, Rameda, EgyptAlum, Ibn Sina Pharma, Qalaa Holdings, and Eipico join Egypt’s EGX30 after index review

Who’s in and who’s out of the EGX30? Orascom Development, Rameda, EgyptAlum, Ibn Sina Pharma, Qalaa Holdings, and Eipico have been added to the EGX30, following the bourse’s semmi-annual review shake up, the exchange announced in a statement (pdf). The six new entrants will be replacing Ezz Steel, B Investments, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Cleopatra Hospitals, Elsewedy Electric, and Heliopolis Housing.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

It was no surprise that heavyweight industrial stocks, Elsewedy Electric and Ezz Steel, left the index: Much of Elsewedy Electric’s shares in freefloat were acquired by Abu Dhabi-based Electra Investment Holding in July — making it a much less active participant on the index — while Ezz Steel is on its way to leave the bourse entirely after the shareholders agreed this week to voluntarily delist it.

There’s also changes afoot for the newly launched sharia compliant EGX33, which will now be the new home to Delta Sugar, Lecico, Misr National Steel, Egyptian Resorts Company, Icon, Taqa Arabia, and Dice. The new entrants will be replacing Elsewedy Electric, Raya Holdings, AMOC, GB Corp, Abu Qir Fertilizers, Egyptian Financial & Industrial, and Gemma.

India’s Everest Kanto Cylinder to establish Egypt’s first CNG cylinder manufacturing plant

Our reliance on imported CNG cylinders may soon be coming to an end, with the Egyptian arm of India’s Everest Kanto Cylinder working on establishing the country — and also continent’s — first factory producing compressed natural gas (CNG) cylinders, according to a statement (pdf) from financial backer National Bank of Egypt. The factory planned for the Suez Canal Economic Zone will produce a range of cylinders, including those for vehicles, medical uses, and various industrial and energy uses.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The project is being backed by a EGP 954 mn loan from the National Bank of Egypt, who say that the project will help support nation-wide localization efforts, cut down imports, and bolster energy security

The facility should also end up being a big help to the government’s efforts to convert cars to run on natural gas, especially with a recent pledge from the Finance Ministry that it will soon cover 70% of the conversion cost, which current stands at roughly EGP 17-17.5k using an imported cylinder. The government has given itself a target of converting 1.5 mn cars to run on natural gas.

Production is expected to kick off at the end of the year, with 60% of production going towards meeting local demand and 40% being earmarked for export.

EFG Hermes led MENA’s capital market activity last year

EFG Hermes was the top player in MENA equity capital markets last year: EFG Hermes was recognized as MENA’s top investment bank in the equity and equity-related category in 2024 by the London Stock Exchange Group, the firm said in a statement (pdf). EFG Hermes led the region’s equity capital market activity — it completed 11 IPOs and 6 secondary offerings throughout the year, including Aramco’s blockbuster secondary offering in June.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What they said: “Achieving the highest deal count in MENA ECM transactions, including 11 IPOs and 6 secondary offerings, underscores not only our leadership in numbers but also the breadth and depth of our capabilities,” said Global Head of Investment Banking Moustafa Gad. “What truly sets us apart is the diversity of markets, industries, and transaction sizes we cater to, demonstrating a sustainable, well-rounded approach to growth rather than relying on a single mega-deal to drive results.”

Schneider Electric was recognized as the most sustainable corporation in the world for the second year running by sustainable economy magazine Corporate Knights, the company said in a statement (pdf). The company is now the first and only company to top the magazine’s Global 100 twice. Check out the full list of the world’s 100 most sustainable companies on Corporate Knight’s website.

Egyptian creatives join 2025 D&AD jury

D&AD taps Egyptian creatives for 2025 jury: Maged Nassar (LinkedIn) and Karim Mira (LinkedIn) have been named to the 2025 Design and Art Direction (D&AD) Awards jury, joining over 300 industry leaders from more than 50 countries to judge this year’s competition, according to a statement (pdf). Nassar, a director at Good People, will serve on the editing jury, while Mira, founder and senior colorist at Lizard, will judge visual effects. The awards ceremony will be held on 22 May to mark the end of the two-day festival at London’s Southbank Centre.

El Sisi rejects calls for forced displacement of Palestinians

“The forced displacement of the Palestinian people is an injustice that we cannot take part in,” President El Sisi said during a joint press conference with Kenyan President William Ruto in Cairo (watch, runtime: 26:15) that became the main topic of conversation last night across the airwaves. El Sisi went on to argue that pushing Palestinians into Egypt and Jordan will not just lead to a humanitarian catastrophe but could destabilize national and regional security.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

El Sisi appeared to reach out to Trump, a move praised by some of the nation’s talking hosts, who commented on the president’s remarks that “Rest assured that we are determined to work with President Trump, who seeks to achieve peace, in order to reach the long-awaited two-state solution and establish a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.” Ahmed Moussa on Ala Mas’ouleety gave the move credit, telling his audience that “Trump is a strong leader who could pressure Israel into serious peace talks” (watch, runtime: 3:17).

Whatever their take, the hosts were united in rejecting calls to ethnically cleanse Gaza, with Osama Kamal saying on Masa’ DMC that “For 70 years, they have endured oppression. The solution is not in their expulsion but in a just peace” (watch, runtime: 4:06). Others, including Sherif Amer on Yahduth Fi Masr, similarly rejected the proposal, while presenting the government’s — and the majority of the international community’s — call for a two-state solution as the solution (watch, runtime: 3:18).

Bob Menendez is putting Egypt in the headlines once again — possibly for the very last time

Bob Menendez is putting Egypt in the headlines once again — possibly for the very last time — as the former US senator from New Jersey was yesterday sentenced to 11 years in prison on charges of corruption and bribery that allegedly saw him accept gold bars, money and a Mercedes-Benz to covertly aid Egypt. Menendez — now reportedly mocked as Gold Bar Bob, according to his lawyers — took to X following the ruling to call out the trial as “a political witch hunt” and affirming that he would file an appeal. (New York Times | BBC | Washington Post | AP News)

Turkish Klepsam to build Egypt’s largest sanitary ware plant

MANUFACTURING-

Turkish company Klepsam is planning to build the country’s largest sanitary ware factory, Egyptian-Turkish Business Council member Matta Bishay told EnterpriseAM. Bishay will soon hold a meeting with Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir to discuss allocating a 30k sqm plot of land in October City for the project that will see investments of USD 7-10 mn in its first phase to manufacture water meters, which are currently heavily imported.

DIPLOMACY-

Kenyan President William Ruto became the first Kenyan president to make a state visit to Egypt yesterday in a trip that saw him meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and ink an agreement to raise relations to a strategic and comprehensive partnership, according to a statement from the Kenyan presidency.

The visit also saw the country ink 12 agreements covering trade, investment, education, technology, gender equality, maritime partnerships, and urban development, with ongoing discussions to finalize deals on customs cooperation, security, tourism, mining, and the blue economy. President Ruto also emphasized the need to eliminate trade barriers, streamline regulations to boost economic collaboration, and strengthen the institutions of the African Union.

EXPANSION-

Local restaurant management solutions provider Fodista plans to expand into the UAE and Saudi Arabia in 2025, co-founder Hussein Aboaziz told Al Mal. The company — launched in April 2024 — also wants to expand domestically, with plans to step into Port Said, Suez, Ismailia, and Hurghada.

Fed holds rates steady, keeping tabs on Trump and inflation

The US Federal Reserve unanimously kept interest rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, it said in a statement yesterday, as they assess the impact of Trump’s economic policies on inflation and growth. The decision ends the Fed’s cutting spree, which brought rates down a full percentage point last year, including a 50 bps cut in September, followed by 25 bps reductions in November and December.

A predictable outcome: The decision was one of the “most predictable no change” moves in recent years, Bloomberg reports, citing DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach. A Reuters poll of economists echoed the same sentiment earlier this month as better-than-expected data for inflation and the jobs market signalled the economy does not need further stimulus.

Bracing for the Trump effect: While holding off on a rate cut for now, the Fed remains flexible as it evaluates the impact of the anticipated tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, the Associated Press reported. Policymakers are wary, recalling that past tariffs slowed growth more than they raised prices. Analysts also warn that widespread tariffs and mass deportations could fuel inflation, which stubbornly remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Trump is not happy: US President Donald Trump took to social media to lash against the Fed’s presumed failure in stopping “the problem they created with Inflation”. The newly-inaugurated president vowed to take matters into his own hands. “I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social. Trump has been pushing for lower rates for a while now, claiming he should have a say in Fed policy. “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” he said earlier at Davos.

Less cuts this year? Analysts suggest we are in for a slower pace of reductions as the rates hover near the neutral zone, where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts growth. Meanwhile, Powell signalled repeatedly in the press conference that the Fed intends to wait for the Trump administration’s policies to be articulated and implemented, before assessing their implications and deciding on the next step. “Chair Powell very clearly indicated that the first phase of rate calibration is behind us. They’re in no hurry to move into the next phase,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide told Bloomberg.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are broadly in the green in early trading this morning, although a handful of them — including Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China — are closed for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s Nikkei is up around 0.2% so far.

Over on Wall Street, futures indicate the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq will all open in the green despite all three indexes closing down at the end of yesterday’s trading.

EGX30	29,892	+0.8% (YTD: +0.5%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.17	Sell 50.30
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.18	Sell 50.28
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	12,439	+0.2% (YTD: +3.4%)
ADX	9569	+0.2% (YTD: +1.6%)
DFM	5129	-0.9% (YTD: -0.6%)
S&P 500	6039	-0.5% (YTD: +2.7%)
FTSE 100	8558	+0.3% (YTD: +4.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5231	+0.7% (YTD: +6.8%)
Brent crude	USD 76.58	-1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.54	+1.8%
Gold	USD 2,798.30	+0.2%
BTC	USD 103,780.80	+3.4% (YTD: +10.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.0 bn (32.2% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the net buyers. The index is up 0.5% YTD.

In the green: Heliopolis Housing (+6.7%), GB Corp (+2.7%), and TMG Holding (+2.2%).

In the red: B Investments (-2.4%), Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (-1.7%), and CIB (-0.3%).

Courtney Bailey, middle school principal at CAC

Courtney Bailey, middle school principal at CAC: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is the middle school principal at Cairo American College (CAC), Courtney Bailey (LinkedIn). Edited excerpts from our conversation:

My name is Courtney Bailey, and I am the middle school principal at Cairo American College (CAC). I am a third-culture teacher, having lived overseas for 32 years. Egypt is the country I’ve lived in the longest, for around 13 years.

Before Cairo, I taught in Beijing, Cambodia, Tanzania, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, the Ivory Coast, and Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), where I started my international teaching career. My time in Zaire was cut short after three months due to an evacuation, but the experience cemented my desire to teach internationally.

I began my teaching career in Toronto, teaching in the Toronto public school district for two years. Initially, I wanted to be an athlete but I soon realized my passion was working with kids. Born in Jamaica and raised in Toronto from 12, I’ve always been drawn to education.

I transitioned from classroom teaching to leadership in Cambodia, beginning as an athletic director. I loved organizing activities and creating opportunities for kids to have fun. Encouraged by mentors, I sought an assistant principal role, leading me to Cairo.

I’ve always wanted to lead, and I found my passion in middle school. Middle school students are at a critical developmental stage, an inflection point where we can profoundly shape their values, routines, and character. That’s why I love what I do.

I wake up at 5am during the week. I allow myself an extra hour of sleep on weekends because I’m off to play golf. My morning begins with mindfulness meditation, whether yoga or mobility exercises, followed by warm water and a bit of salt water to kick-start my day. I'm at the office by 6:30am or 6:45am, using the quiet time before everyone arrives to settle in, check my calendar, and prepare for the day ahead by checking that the building is clean and everything is ready to go. By 7:30am, I’m outside, welcoming students as they arrive.

My day is structured into chunks. I meet with my counselor and assistant on Sunday for about 45 minutes to review what’s coming up during the week. Mondays, for example, begin with a leadership meeting. I meet with the team leaders at 6:45 on Wednesday morning. Then, I spend time around the students, being present and accessible to kids and staff.

Strategic, long-term projects often happen after hours. School ends at 3:05pm, but I typically respond to emails, meet with teachers, and handle immediate tasks until 4:45pm or 5pm. Afterward, I head to the gym for a 45-minute workout before going home.

In the evenings, I reflect on strategic priorities, like upcoming presentations or long-term planning, often jotting down notes to follow up on the next day. I avoid communicating with my faculty outside work hours to respect their time.

The one constant in my day is the students. The students always know where to find me. I’m at the gate at 7:30am to greet them, and from 11:05am to 11:40am, I’m supervising them on the field or in the gym.

I rely on a network of trusted colleagues for decision-making. I bounce ideas off like-minded individuals, not necessarily administrators because diverse perspectives help refine my approach.

The beauty of this school is that there is so much diversity around me. When hiring, I prioritize diversity, aiming for a team that reflects our student body and shares our values. I need to ensure that the kids can see their reflection in the person I’m putting in front of them. This is why I try to get to know the person himself or herself rather than just what’s on paper.

Instilling values is integral to my leadership. Goals are essential, but values provide the foundation for why we do what we do. It goes back to being an athlete. One of the things that you’re taught is that you need to set a goal for yourself, but I realized that you can't get where you want to go just by setting goals. You have to have values. Values guide behavior and decisions for students, and I always return to these principles when addressing or guiding challenges.

I use a planner to structure my day, the same one the students use. This helps me stay aligned with the students’ schedules and follow their pace and structure, so I feel like I’m in it with them. I focus by listening to ambient music or chanting.

Mindfulness is a daily practice for me. Whether through focused breathing or staying present in the moment, it helps counteract the thousands of thoughts we process daily. I often remind students to “just breathe” to center themselves.

My next professional goal is to complete my doctorate. I’m nearing the dissertation phase, as I’ve already finished three chapters, so it’s just a matter of submitting it and beginning my research. While considering becoming a head of school, I’ve realized that my passion lies in being with the students. Being around them energizes me, and I find liberation in knowing I’ve reached the desired success level.

I play golf on the weekends and recently helped create a golf simulator at school. I’ve recently been drawn to podcasts focusing on AI for entertainment. I like listening to Thomas Frey as I find his insights into AI fascinating. Currently, I’m reading Golf Beneath the Surface by Raymond Prior, which explores the psychology of golf, and Ego Is the Enemy by Ryan Holiday, a powerful book on stoicism recommended by a friend who is a professional athlete.

The best advice I’ve ever received is to enjoy whatever you’re doing so it doesn’t feel like work. That’s the mindset I bring to my role every day, and it’s what I try to teach my students.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

23 January- 5 February (Thursday-Wednesday): Cairo International Book Fair, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, Cairo

28-30 January (Tuesday-Thursday): Bavarian delegation visit to Egypt

29 January - 8 February (Wednesday-Saturday): Business Ya Shabab exhibition, Cairo Stadium

Health Ministry finalizes partnership with Gustave Roussy to operate Dar El Salam Hospital.

Building permit applications in Egypt's new cities will go online

Accor Group to open Sofitel Cairo Downtown Nile, the world’s largest Sofitel.

Egyptian National Railways to launch tender for Tanta-Mansoura-Damietta railway line upgrades

Food products will require food safety and validity certificates from the National Food Safety Authority (NFSA)

FEBRUARY

BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected.

Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn.

Subscription period for Your Home in Egypt initiative opens.

2 February: Energy Day Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

13-17 February (Thursday-Monday): The 10th Annual Conference of the Businesswomen of Egypt 21 Association, the Arab League HQ, Cairo.

17 February: (Monday): Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides will visit Egypt to sign agreements to transport Cypriot gas to Egypt to be liquefied and exported.

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): EGYPES Technical Conference, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18-19 February (Saturday-Sunday): German-Egyptian Joint Economic Committee meetings, Cairo, Egypt

20 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee's first meeting.

MARCH

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer

Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units.

Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025.

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions.

APRIL

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit launches 9th edition, Red Sea

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

MAY

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

25 December 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December 2025: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports' Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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