The economy grew at a 5.3% clip during 1Q FY 25-26

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF mission lands in Cairo tomorrow

Good morning, all and happy last day of November. Macro news leads today’s newswell as we dive into the economy’s performance during the first quarter of the current fiscal year. We also have a lot to look forward to as the week unfolds, with an IMF mission scheduled to land in town tomorrow.

PSA-

Worried about the Airbus fiasco delaying your flight? It seems like you should have the all-clear. Some 6k A320s were grounded yesterday in an emergency recall for a software update to fix a newly-discovered vulnerability in the system, but national carrier EgyptAir was soon out with a statement that it updated all its aircraft and that there was no resulting disruption to flights. Other airlines — but not all — have followed suit in confirming that flights are running as scheduled.

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with a high of 23°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s just as cool in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 14°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- It looks like it will soon be the mining sector’s turn to get an incentive package to boost investment, with Oil Minister Karim Badawi — who also oversees the mining industry — teasing an upcoming program to encourage investment in the sector, according to a ministry statement. He told Australian mining companies that incoming reforms and incentives would include reductions in annual fees — making initial exploration less financially burdensome — and tax and customs exemptions for exploration equipment. The reforms would also simplify the mining licensing system, he added.

REMEMBER- The government is looking to raise the mining sector’s share of GDP to 5-6% from less than 1% currently.

#2- Morocco’s anti-dumping duties on Egyptian PVC imports are here to stay after the Trade Ministry’s anti-dumping investigation into Egyptian imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) found evidence of significant dumping, which had harmed local industry, Moroccan news outlet Hespress reports. The Egyptian Petrochemicals Company, which cooperated with the investigation, will face a 74.87% duty, while non-cooperating exporters will be subject to the higher rate.

REMEMBER- Morocco first introduced the anti-dumping duties on Egyptian PVC imports in June, at the time for a four-month period.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

#1- IMF mission lands in Cairo tomorrow: The IMF mission that will carry out the combined fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s USD 8 bn extended fund facility program and the first review of the resilience and sustainability facility will arrive tomorrow, according to what Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said last week. The mission is scheduled to leave the country on 12 December.

The visit follows improvements in key economic indicators that the fund had been looking for progress on. Among these developments is Qatar’s recently announced USD 29.7 bn Alam El Roum project, where a few hundred mn of the proceeds will go toward reducing public debt, a key priority for the IMF.

#2- The Egypt Business Solutions Summit is taking place tomorrow at the InterContinental Citystars. The one-day event — held under the theme From Local to Global — will bring together business leaders, SMEs, and innovators for discussions on scaling beyond borders, with sessions covering leadership, export planning, international branding, and investor readiness.

#3- The Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX) is also kicking off tomorrow and will run until 4 December at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The event will showcase the latest land, sea, and air defense technologies and is expected to bring together over 40k visitors to check out the 450 exhibiting companies.

Have you checked out EnterpriseAM MENA <> India? It’s our newest briefing tracking one of the world’s most dynamic trade, investment, and cultural corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we’ll track the transactions, trends, and market moves connecting these two dynamic regions. The flow of capital, talent, and trade between MENA and the Indian subcontinent is one of the most important economic stories in the world — and we’re telling as only we can.

If you’re investing, trading, or scouting for your next big move in MENA or India, subscribe to EnterpriseAM MENA <> India by tapping here to get the strategic intelligence you need.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The latest escalation against Venezuela is dominating front pages this morning. US President Donald Trump said yesterday that commercial airlines should consider the Venezuelan airspace “to be closed in its entirety.” It’s unclear what Trump meant by the warning, which closely follows US military mobilization and threats to escalate its lethal operations against alleged drug traffickers on Venezuelan boats into a land-based assault.

Maduro’s government rejected the threats, saying “Venezuela will not accept orders, threats, or interference from any foreign power.” (Washington Post | Reuters | Financial Times | CNN | CNBC)

ALSO- The shooting of two National Guard soldiers in Washington, DC intensified immigration backlash, with Trump announcing a permanent pause on immigration from unnamed “third-world nations,” and the US halting asylum decisions for all nationalities, as well as processing of visas for Afghan nationals. The suspected shooter is an Afghan national that came into the US in 2021 fleeing Taliban rule. (AlJazeera | BBC)

AND- Unsafe scaffolding and foam materials used during maintenance work at the residential building in Hong Kong that caught fire might be the culprit behind the rapid spreading of the fire, police have alleged. Several employees and consultants at the construction firm that built the building have been arrested after the fire took over 120 lives. (Guardian | Reuters | NYT)

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING-

A controversial new 1.1km oil pipeline agreement that will link Canada’s Alberta oil sands to the Pacific coast is facing backlash from environmentalist groups and Canadian cabinet members. (Financial Times | Guardian | NYT)

ATP tennis returns to Egypt after 15 years: Somabay to host the Somabay Open – ATP Challenger 50 With the Somabay Open – ATP Challenger 50, Somabay once again steps into the spotlight of international tennis. From 17 to 23 November 2025, professional players from around the world will gather on Egypt’s Red Sea coast for a tournament that marks the next milestone in the destination’s sporting evolution.

Egypt’s economy grew 5.3% in 1Q FY 2025-26

The economy grew 5.3% during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from the 3.5% recorded during the same period last year, according to a Planning Ministry statement.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

REMEMBER- The economy grew at a 4.4% clip during the fiscal year 2024-2025, outpacing the 4.2% targeted in the draft budget and the 2.4% growth recorded in FY 2023-2024.

TL;DR: The acceleration “reflects the tangible impact of ongoing economic and structural reforms that are bolstering the real economy, crowding in private-sector activity, and steering the growth model toward tradable, high-productivity sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications,” the statement read.

Key drivers: This growth was driven by expansion across a number of sectors, topping the list are non-oil manufacturing and CIT, which grew by an equal rate of 14.5%, tourism (13.8%), and financial intermediation (10.2%). Ins., electricity, social services, trade, and agriculture also made the list. There was also S uez Canal activity, which grew 8.6% during the three-month period for the time since 2Q FY 2023-24.

The higher GDP growth was largely expected as economic activity continues to normalize and regain momentum on the back of better USD availability, predictability, and confidence, Thndr Securities’ Esraa Ahmed told EnterpriseAM. “Performance is in line with our expectations of an acceleration in growth for the year to around 5.4%, which could be exceeded if Suez Canal recovers faster than expected,” she added.

Tourism growth during the quarter was supported by promotional campaigns, improved quality of services and tourism infrastructure, in addition to the digital transformation and artificial intelligence technologies being adopted to enhance the tourist experience. Egypt welcomes 5.1 mn tourists during the quarter and the figure is expected to grow some more in the coming quarters, especially with the opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum, which is expected to attract about 5 mn visitors annually.

Non-oil manufacturing maintained its recovery during the quarter, with several activities seeing growth — motor vehicles grew 50%, chemical products grew 44%, beverages recorded growth of 37%, the furniture industry jumped by 34%, pharma by 19%, and ready-made garments by 17%.

The extraction sector declined 5.3% during the three-month period on the back of contraction in both oil and natural gas activities. However, the pace of contraction eased y-o-y, during the same period last year the sector contracted 8.9%. “This improvement is due to recent discoveries of gas fields and exploratory wells, with nearly 75 new oil and gas discoveries since August, and 383 new wells added to the production map,” the statement read.

Excluding crude oil and natural gas extraction, growth was fairly broad-based, with official figures backing anecdotal company-level evidence pointing to a solid recovery in private consumption and investment, Al Ahly Pharos’ Head of Research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. He said the growth acceleration in 1Q FY 2025-26 pushed real GDP growth above its long-term potential of 4.3%, reflecting a rebound from the previous two years of below-potential growth.

Private investments soared to 66% of total executed investments, recording 25.9% y-o-y growth during 1Q of the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, public investments declined to 34% of total investments, reflecting the state’s direction to enhance private sector participation in the economy.

What about foreign trade? Exports showed a relative improvement, with both goods and service exports growing 1.3% during the quarter. However, imports rose at a faster pace, increasing 9.4%.

The bigger picture: The Madbouly government sees the economy growing “no less than” 5.0% this fiscal year, up from 4.4% last fiscal year.

China’s CJN to set up USD 1 bn phosphate industrial park in Sokhna 360

China’s CJN to set up USD 1 bn phosphate chemicals complex: China’s phosphate chemicals producer Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co. (CJN) inked an agreement with Elsewedy Industrial Development to develop a USD 1 bn phosphate chemical industrial park in Elsewedy’s Sokhna 360 industrial city, according to a statement. The park is expected to be one of the largest of its kind in the Middle East.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: The 905k sqm project will be developed by Elsewedy over three phases, aiming to create 10k jobs. Its output will be exported to markets in South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. The project will also involve establishing a specialized research and development center in the first phase of development to advance scientific research in phosphate-based chemical technologies.

The development plan’s breakdown:

#1- Work on phase one will begin in 2026, with commercial operations expected in 2028. It will focus on producing phosphoric acid, DAP and TSP fertilisers, each with a capacity of 300k tons annually.

#2- The second phase will commence in 2029, with operations starting in 2031. It will focus on producing high-purity specialized phosphate chemicals, such as purified phosphoric acid for industrial and food-grade use and potassium dihydrogen phosphate.

#3- The final phase will start in 2032, with operations beginning in 2034, expanding into new energy material industries, including the production of electric-battery materials, such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium dihydrogen phosphate.

This isn’t the first or the most expensive phosphate plant being set up by a Chinese investor here. A Chinese consortium partnered with multiple local players back in June to build a USD 658 mn phosphoric acid production complex in the New Valley governorate. Also this year, China’s Asia Potash announced its plan to set up a phosphate fertilizer industrial park in Upper Egypt, with a final investment ticket of USD 7-10 bn.

ADVISORS- Zaki Hashem advised CJN on the agreement, according to a statement (pdf) from the firm.

Knowledge is power: outsmart fraud

People are the strongest defense in digital security when equipped with the right knowledge. Visa’s Stay Secure study shows that many fraud attempts exploit human interaction through tactics like social engineering and phishing. Education and awareness must be a top priority for organizations, with employee training as a powerful first line of defense.

Consumers also play a vital role. While 39% could be drawn in by a spam email warning of a security risk and 35% by a notice about a blocked credit card, these risks can be mitigated through awareness. Closing this “knowledge gap” is the goal of Visa’s ‘Stay Secure’ campaign, which delivers practical, actionable advice to help people spot and stop fraud. By embedding security awareness into everyday interactions, businesses can transform knowledge into action, creating an ecosystem where fraudsters lose their advantage.

Sokhna Port could soon be getting a new multipurpose terminal !_StoryTags_! SODIC, debt watch, investment watch, CI Capital, Fintech, M&A Watch, Financial Regulatory Authority, financial services, logistics, Suez Canal Economic Zone,

LOGISTICS-

Transcargo International will conduct the technical and economic studies for a planned 676-meter multipurpose terminal at Sokhna Port, along with 335k sqm of back-of-house space, under an MoU inked with the Suez Canal Economic Zone, a statement from the zone showed. The two sides also signed an 18-month usufruct agreement allowing the Abu Dhabi Ports terminal operator subsidiary to immediately operate and exploit 47.3k sqm of quay and yard space for general cargo and dry bulk handling while studies are completed ahead of a full concession contract.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

INVESTMENT WATCH-

CI Capital Asset Management has been tapped as the regional investment manager for homegrown e-payments platform Sahl’s portfolios in Egypt and the UAE, according to a statement from parent company CI Capital. The agreement puts one of the country’s largest asset managers in charge of Sahl’s proprietary and client portfolios as the fintech player moves to ramp up its Gulf expansion strategy.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

The Financial Regulatory Authority approved Fawry’s request to establish Fawry Holding for Financial Investments, a vehicle to participate in setting up or investing in companies that issue securities, according to an authority statement. The authority also greenlit real estate player Emtelak Development’s request to launch a real estate investment fund.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION-

Egypt will join the Saudi Arabia-led Middle East Green Initiative, after the cabinet approved a draft presidential decision to become part of the regional climate platform, according to a statement. The initiative aims to boost technical support, ecosystem-based climate solutions, land restoration, and coordinated regional governance across Central Asia, West and South Asia, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It also seeks to open the door for green investment partnerships with governments, multilateral organizations, and the private sector.

The cabinet also greenlit Egypt’s accession as a partner country to the Horizon Europe program — the EU’s multi-bn-EUR research and innovation program. The previously announced move gives Egyptian researchers, universities, innovators, and entities the same access EU members have to the EUR 93.5 bn research and innovation program.

DEBT WATCH –

SODIC signed a EGP 3 bn revolving facility with Banque Misr, securing a four-year line to support ongoing construction and operational funding needs, according to a statement (pdf). The facility gives the real estate giant additional flexibility to manage working-capital cycles and keep project timelines on track.

SOUND SMART- Revolving facilities work like a corporate credit line, where the borrower can draw down funds, repay, and re-draw as needed over the facility’s tenor. This gives developers like SODIC the liquidity flexibility to pace construction spending, manage working-capital swings, and keep projects moving without locking themselves into a single lump-sum loan structure.

US banks are in for USD 2.6 tn capital boost from upcoming reforms as global rivals fear growing irrelevance

What will the impact of the upcoming loosening of regulations for US banks be for the rest of the world? That’s the topic making the rounds in the business press as banks across the EU and the UK begin to call on regulators to also loosen strict regulations and bring down high capital buffers for fear of losing more market share to US banks.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What’s happening? Fed’s vice chair of supervision Michelle Bowman is leading reforms that will bring down leverage ratios to as low as 3.5% from 5% and implement a looser form of Basel III capital level requirements and ease annual stress tests. The reforms are expected to free up some USD 2.6 tn in lending capacity for US banks, according to a Jeffries note picked up by Bloomberg and the Financial Times, which wrote a big read on the subject.

The rolling back of crisis-era capital requirements is celebrated by some and fueling concerns for others, with critics fearing it could reduce banks’ resilience to systemic shocks, especially as it comes only two years after the collapse of several mid-sized US banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

Still, the move is expected to give Wall Street far more room to expand credit, trading, and balance-sheet activity, as well as bolster banks’ activity in the USD 29 tn US Treasury market. It would immediately liberate as much as USD 140 bn in capital for US banks, potentially boosting loan growth, buybacks, and dividends, Alvarez & Marsal said in a report picked up by the Financial Times.

The move is expected to “drive a material uplift through 2026” in bank activity — from lending to M&A and tech investment. But it’s bad news for global rivals, including European and UK banks, which already face stricter capital regimes and say the upcoming shift risks entrenching Wall Street dominance. One senior European bank executive told the salmon-colored paper the divergence is “really bad news” for competitiveness, as fears mount over the loss of more market share to US banks.

Concerns have even prompted Swiss bank UBS to mull moving its headquarters to the US as it awaits a decision from the government that could hike its capital requirements by USD 26 bn, a move aimed at toughening its stance on the lender after the Credit Suisse meltdown.

US banks last year occupied the top five spots for investment-banking revenue worldwide and accounted for seven of the top 10, according to Dealogic. The top 13 US banks are already estimated to have about USD 200 bn of excess capital above their regulatory minimums, setting them up for massive windfalls from the upcoming reforms.

So far, Europe seems unlikely to follow. Claudia Buch, the European Central Bank’s top supervisor, said she has no plans to cut capital requirements, arguing “better-capitalized banks are better able to lend, particularly in times of stress.”

As for the UK, the Bank of England is reviewing its leverage regime and may adopt partial relief. Alvarez & Marsal estimates that if the UK mirrors the US, British banks’ capital requirements could fall by around 8%. However, analysts expect the UK to deliver only “half” the relief seen in the US.

EGX30	40,039	+1.3% (YTD: +34.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.58	Sell 47.72
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.60	Sell 47.70
Interest rates (CBE)	21.00% deposit	22.00% lending
Tadawul	10,641	+0.1% (YTD: -11.9%)
ADX	9,747	+0.4% (YTD: +3.5%)
DFM	5,837	+0.4% (YTD: +13.2%)
S&P 500	6,849	+0.5% (YTD: +16.5%)
FTSE 100	9,721	+0.3% (YTD: +18.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,668	+0.3% (YTD: +15.8%)
Brent crude	USD 62.38	-0.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.85	+6.4%
Gold	USD 4,255	+1.3%
BTC	USD 90,898	0.0% (YTD: -2.9%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	972.47	+0.2% (YTD: +25.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.33	-0.1% (YTD: +8.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.35	-5.0% (YTD: -5.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.1 bn (2.0% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 34.6% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Aluminum (+4.9%), Arabian Cement (+4.8%), and Beltone Holding (+4.1%).

In the red: Credit Agricole (-4.1%), Qalaa Holdings (-1.8%), and Juhayna (-1.8%).

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

November: The Conference on Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development in Gaza.

DECEMBER

1 December (Monday): The Egypt Business Solutions Summit, InterContinental City Stars Cairo.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

1-12 December (Monday-Friday): IMF mission for extended fund facility program reviews.

4-7 December (Thursday-Sunday): Egy Stitch & Tex Expo 2025, Cairo International Conference Center.

6 December (Saturday): International Procurement Supply Chain Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

8 December (Monday): Egypt-UK Investment Conference, Cairo.

15 December (Monday): Neo Gen PropTech and Sustainable Smart Cities Conference, The St. Regis Hotel New Capital

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt will host the fourth edition of the Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily