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Monday, 7 Apr 2025

What We're Tracking Today
Egp Watch
Capital Markets
Economy
Economy
Debt Watch
Earnings Watch
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar

Tariff uncertainty sees EGP drop to lowest level since March float

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Today at a glance

1

EGP Watch

EGP drops to its lowest level since March float after tariffs spark foreign investor exit.
2

Capital markets

Local institutional investors cash out amid global market jitters.
3

Economy

Maait says it’s too early to accurately gauge tariff fallout.
4

Economy

Analysts split on whether inflation slowdown will continue into March -EnterpriseAM poll.
5

DEBT WATCH

Egypt Post to issue upcoming retail bonds.
6

What We're Tracking Today

FinMin mulls fresh incentives to push SMEs to join the tax system.
7

What We're Tracking Today

It’s the first day of the EFG Hermes One on One in Dubai.
8

BLACKBOARD

A look at Egypt’s efforts to internationalize higher education.

Monday, 7 Apr 2025

What We're Tracking Today
Egp Watch
Capital Markets
Economy
Economy
Debt Watch
Earnings Watch
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

Finance Ministry eyes fresh incentives to push SMEs to join the tax system

Good morning, y’all. Tariffs are still driving the news cycle, both in the global press and here at home. In today’s issue, we’ve got news of the EGP’s tariff-induced slip against the greenback, market jitters causing investors to cash out from the EGX, and more in today’s packed issue.

As we note below: You should be worried if the EGP wasn’t dipping right now against the greenback. There’s clear logic to why the EGP slipped yesterday. Its dip and a robust interbank market suggest that the mechanics of a free-floating currency are working as they should. We’ll be talking lots more about the impact of tariffs on markets, currencies, and economies in the weeks to come — watch this space.

UP FIRST- It’s the first day of the EFG Hermes One on One in Dubai. The One on One is the largest investor conference focused on emerging markets — and it’s difficult to imagine a more opportune time for companies and equity investors to chew the fat than now: Global markets are roiling in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s bid to reshape the post-Second World War economic order.

On stage this morning: Central Bank of Egypt Deputy Governor Ramy Aboul Naga will offer what’s being billed as an “inside view into Egypt’s economic reset” in a fireside chat. Next up will be a panel discussion in partnership with the Dubai Financial Market on the role of capital markets in bringing to life the UAE’s long-term vision. On stage will be DFM and Nasdaq Dubai CEO Hamed Ali and Dubai Economic Development Corporation CEO Hadi Badri. The DEDC is a unit of the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism.

Fund and portfolio investors from around the world will join top company execs for the world’s biggest live poll of investor sentiment. The EFG Hermes Live Research Poll caps off the morning before participants break out for one-on-one meetings in which company execs meet face-to-face with investors.

BY THE NUMBERS- We expect this morning that fund managers representing more than 250 global institutions will meet this week with top execs from 220 companies spanning 12 countries.

Companies from our part of the world are the stars of the show. Among the top Egyptian firms attending:

  • B Investments
  • CIB
  • E-Finance
  • Eastern Company
  • Edita
  • EFG Holding
  • EK Holding
  • GB Corp
  • Juhayna
  • Orascom Construction
  • Telecom Egypt
  • TMG Holding

AND- ValU is with us here in Dubai for a roadshow as it prepares to make its EGX debut in a novel transaction that will see existing EFG Holding give its shareholders a minority stake in the high-profile fintech company.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s going to be a hot and windy day in Cairo today, with a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s — as usual — a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 26°C and a low of 16°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at what Trump’s tariffs mean for Egyptian industries. Check out the story here.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- FinMin mulls fresh incentives to push SMEs to join the tax system: The Finance Ministry is looking into offering additional incentives and financial support to the first 50k SMEs that join the simplified tax system as first-time taxpayers, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said in a statement.

REMEMBER- Last year, the government introduced the first phase of tax reforms, which included a simplified tax system for SMEs, a central clearing system, and measures to integrate the informal economy.

#2- EDA to roll out dynamic meds pricing system tied to FX, input costs: The Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) is developing a new automatic pricing mechanism for pharma products that will adjust prices up or down based on fluctuations in input costs — most notably the EGP-USD exchange rate and raw material prices — Cairo 24 reports, citing a source at the authority. The system will remove the need for pharma companies to file price adjustment requests, aiming to bring transparency and predictability to the sector.

What to expect: The new system will apply predefined thresholds to trigger price changes and is designed to encourage foreign investment by offering clearer returns under changing cost conditions. Manufacturers have reportedly welcomed the move, and the EDA is also considering launching a digital platform where companies can track real-time updates to drug prices and calculate pricing for new products ahead of launch.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Macron is in town: French President Emmanuel Macron is in Egypt for an official visit where he will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and other officials to discuss the war on Gaza, economic cooperation, and more. During his multi-day visit, Macron will attend a tripartite summit in Cairo alongside El Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah to discuss the latest in Gaza, he said in a post on X.

Could Macron’s visit mean fresh French investments? Egypt is looking to attract EUR 1 bn in French investment this year across a number of key sectors — renewables, transport and shipping, pharma, food, ICT, engineering industries, automotive, and chemicals — an unnamed government official told Asharq Business. The fresh funds would push total French investments in the country to EUR 8 bn.

That’s not all: The two sides will reportedly ink agreements in the higher education, energy, food industries, logistics centers, pharma, infrastructure, and AI sectors during the visit, the official said.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s still all about the global market turmoil in the foreign press, with virtually every outlet leading with expectations of markets extending their slump tomorrow as futures fall.

US President Donald Trump and his administration have indicated they plan to stay the course on tariffs despite global concerns over a possible economic recession and the response from markets, sending S&P 500 futures contracts down 2.9% and Nasdaq futures down 3.9%. The two indices have wiped tns in market value since the tariffs were announced last week. The flat 10% global tariff has since kicked in on Saturday, while the country-specific reciprocal tariffs are kicking in on Wednesday.

Commodities also extended their losses last night, with Brent crude falling 3.1% to USD 63.53 and West Texas Intermediate slipping 3.4% to USD 59.90, below breakeven price for shale producers. Copper also fell more than 5% to USD 4.14. Meanwhile, Asian markets faced a brutal sell-off at market open, with Japan’s Nikkei plunging 8%, triggering a circuit breaker. We dive into the impact of the tariffs on regional markets as well in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

Trump dismissed the global response and said that “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said over 50 countries have reached out to the US for negotiations, while signaling that any talks would take time. Trump also didn’t seem too concerned about inflation, saying he doesn’t expect the US to “lose a tn USD for the privilege of buying pencils from China.” (Bloomberg | FT | NYT | CNBC)

OUR LATEST SPONSOR-

We’re delighted this week to welcome Qalaa Holdings to EnterpriseAM as our latest pillar advertiser. Our friends Ahmed Heikal, Hisham El Khazindar, and Karim Sadek — together with many others on the team at Qalaa — were a key part of our origin story.

Two threads run through that story: What has since become Enterprise was born as a two-person investor relations and strategic communications agency back in 2007. Our first client were our good friends at EFG Hermes. Our second: a hot private-equity upstart called Citadel Capital, as Qalaa was then known. The firm had just pulled off what stands as one of the most audacious exits ever in Middle East PE — the USD 1.4 bn sale of Egyptian Fertilizers Company, which stood at the time as the largest M&A in Egypt and the biggest-ever Mideast PE transaction, yielding a gross IRR of nearly 100%.

Everyone and their sister wanted to work with Qalaa in fall 2007 when it put out a call for a communications agency. Entrepreneurs at heart who had sketched out their business and logo on a literal napkin, the firm’s founding partners took a chance on us, a then-still-unincorporated two-person shop. Why? They recognized fellow finance nerds passionate about building a business.

Fast forward to 2010 and you’ll find the second thread: Our agency had grown to more than a dozen people. Our founders were longtime journalists who had always been passionate about entrepreneurism — and we had decided to launch a print magazine about how Egyptian entrepreneurs were building great businesses. The “events of 25 January 2011” killed our zero issue before we could go to print, and we went on to get a crash course in doing business under duress.

Today, we’re a 150-person shop with two business units: A news and business intelligence division that delivers essential insights into business, finance, economics, public policy, and regulation in the UAE, Egypt, Saudi, and beyond to a global audience of more than 500k people who matter. And an advisory firm run by a separate team who work with some of the most interesting listed companies on markets including Tadawul, ADX, DFM, EGX, LSE, and beyond.

And now, Qalaa Holdings and its more than 17.5k employees touch millions of consumers and business leaders every day. With holdings spanning from the USD 4.3 bn Egyptian Refining Company to Taqa Arabia, and Dina Farms, Qalaa is committed to improving lives and livelihoods by building sustainable businesses for its employees and community.

EGX-listed Qalaa is a leader in energy and infrastructure, one of Egypt’s most export-oriented manufacturers, and a leading import-substitution play. As Heikal recently noted, “Egypt continues to be an attractive investment destination for both local and regional players, and I am confident in both the country’s long-term economic outlook and in our ability to generate long-term returns for all of our stakeholders as we grow.” You can learn more about Qalaa here.

Please join us in thanking Ahmed, Hisham, Karim, and everyone else at Qalaa Holdings together with all of our other advertisers. Their unwavering support is what allows us to bring you your essential morning read every day without charge.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at Egypt’s efforts to internationalize higher education through the Brics Network University and other initiatives.

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Somabay; every reason to fall in love.

2

EGP Watch

EGP drops to its lowest level since March float after tariffs spark foreign investor exit

The EGP fell just over 1% against the greenback in trading yesterday, with the USD gaining EGP 0.54 on the national currency at public and private banks. The dip saw the EGP pass the 51 mark against the USD and slip to its lowest level since last year’s March float. The drop came amid global uncertainty after US President Donald Trump’s tariffs came into effect over the weekend, which sent shockwaves across global markets.

The day saw significant exit of foreign investors from our local treasury market, which banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal thinks was due to uncertainty caused by the US tariff announcement. Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed seconded the notion, telling us that uncertainty about the tariffs “led investors to exit some high-risk markets and pull out of both local and foreign debt.” The yield on Egyptian USD-denominated bonds rose by more than 1% in trading on 4 April compared to the levels at the end of March, she added.

Some used USD 1.1 bn changed hands on the interbank market yesterday, a significant jump from USD 150-250 mn the market usually clocks each business day, Asharq Business reported, citing what it said were industry participants.

In parallel, the Madbouly government has been deploying a bit more hard currency than usual, looking to take advantage of the sharp decline in global commodity prices — including oil — by securing strategic contracts, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The source positioned the buys as a move to build a strategic stockpile of goods that could help shield the general budget against future price volatility.

Demand for fresh Egyptian debt also fell, with three- and nine-month t-bills offered up by the Central Bank of Egypt yesterday only managing to bring in 8.7% of the targeted EGP 70 billion, according to data from the bank. Investors demanded yields several percentage points higher than the central bank was willing to accept.

IN CONTEXT- Volatility is the name of the game in FX markets in recent months, thanks largely to Trump’s tariff talks. The greenback has lost a bit of ground in recent days against major currencies including the EUR, JPY, CAD, and GBP. It’s been a mixed bag for emerging markets currencies, with the INR gaining ground, the MXN holding steady, and Nigeria selling reserves to support the NGN amid uncertainty.

No analyst we spoke with yesterday was willing to make a call on where the EGP is heading. Allowing the EGP to slip “may be a necessary tool” to make investors think twice before liquidating positions in Egypt and existing the market, economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us yesterday. On the other hand: A sliding currency would have a significant inflationary impact that would need to be countered by “effective and strong social protection measures to ease the heavy burden on citizens.”

Others think foreign investors could soon return to emerging markets like Egypt following a “period of evaluation, especially if the economic fundamentals remain relatively strong,” economist Mona Bedair told EnterpriseAM. “Egypt’s current advantage is in the high return on debt instruments, even with the expected interest rate cut and flexibility in the exchange rate, along with a relatively stable reform path,” she explained.

THE BOTTOM LINE- What matters here is that we see volatility in the coming days — and that it’s clear why the EGP is moving in a “logical” way. Market watchers will be reassured that policymakers do not have their thumb on the proverbial scale if (a) the interbank market remains liquid and (b) the EGP’s direction of travel makes logical sense. More concerning than the EGP sliding a few percentage points would be for us to effectively re-peg in a time of turmoil.

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3

Capital markets

Local institutional investors cash out amid global market jitters

The EGX30 dropped 3.3% at yesterday’s close as global equity markets react to the Trump White House’s bid to reshape the post-Second World War economic order. The slide came as little surprise to market watchers, given the volatility rippling across global exchanges, but net selling by local institutional investors — rather than foreign or GCC players — raised eyebrows, CFI Head of Research Ahmed Nashi and EGX board member Rania Yacoub told EnterpriseAM.

Locking in returns, and not panic, drove the market, as local institutional investors were likely cashing in on recent gains, including in shares like EFG Holding and EgyptAlum, Nashi said. They’re taking advantage of the current turbulence to lock in returns and will buy back into many of the same names when markets stabilize, according to Nashi.

Oddly enough, it’s retail investors who are helping keep the market steady. With retail traders accounting for around 70% of turnover on the EGX, the sell-off is unlikely to spiral, Yacoub said. Retail investors tend to be more speculative and that will support a near-term correction, Yacoub explained.

Uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs is the biggest threat to capital markets right now, Yacoub told us, noting that emerging markets are being squeezed out of fresh inflows as both foreign and local investors adopt a wait-and-see approach.

There’s hope for a rebound, with Yacoub telling us that retail activity could help fuel a corrective bounce on the EGX later this week. Nashi expects US and global markets to lead a broader rebound early next week — with Egypt’s bourse catching up soon after, barring further exchange-rate volatility.

Ongoing volatility could push back the government’s plans to list state-owned firms on the EGX, as well as private-sector IPOs, until at least 4Q 2025 or early 2026, both analysts told us. These conditions don’t support new listings — they would hurt valuations and dampen foreign investor appetite for emerging market equities, according to Nashi.

Investor interest in Egypt remains strong, the two analysts told us. Foreign investors tend to prefer debt, while Arab and Gulf investors are more drawn to equities (including strategic stakes) and IPOs, Yacoub told us. She stated that even in the worst of times, the Egyptian market has always remained attractive to regional investors, pointing out that she expects the long-awaited Banque du Caire sale stake to go through this year.

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4

Economy

Maait says it’s too early to accurately gauge tariff fallout

It’s too early to accurately assess the damage of Trump’s tariffs, IMF Executive Director and former Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told reporters yesterday as the global economic picture remains murky. However, early signs already show sharp declines in global financial markets, falling oil prices, and a weaker USD against a basket of currencies — that doesn’t include the EGP — Maait said, adding that some global banks now see a 60% probability of a recession, particularly in the US.

Maait noted that inflation could pick up, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts, he said. This could keep borrowing costs elevated for some time while also pushing up the cost of goods, slowing growth, and driving up unemployment. Global trade volumes could shrink by more than 1% as confidence in the current economic system falters and uncertainty continues to climb, he warned.

“The outlook for the short and medium term will depend largely on how other countries respond to this trade war — and how the US, in turn, responds to them,” Maait said. “We’ll have to wait and see how things unfold in the coming days.”

REMEMBER- The Trump administration’s blanket 10% tariff on all incoming goods came into effect on Saturday, with steeper rates — up to 49% — for 57 countries set to follow on 9 April. Egypt was hit with the baseline 10% tariff, escaping the harsher treatment expanded out to regional peers like Syria (41%), Iraq (39%), and Libya (31%).

But what could it all mean for local industries? The tariffs could present an unexpected chance for Egypt’s industrial base, particularly in manufacturing, as firms seek to sidestep higher duties by relocating operations to lower-tariff countries like Egypt. We have more on this in this week’s Inside Industry, which you can check out here.

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5

Economy

Analysts split on whether inflation slowdown will continue into March -EnterpriseAM poll

Deflation nation? Not everyone is so sure. Ten analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM on whether soon-to-be-released inflation data March will show annual urban inflation slowing or accelerating are split. While half of the respondents saw inflation inching down by as much as 0.4 percentage points from 12.8% in February, the other half saw inflation picking up slightly or even up to 18%. The median forecast of the ten analysts we polled saw staying put at 12.8%.

IN CONTEXT- The Central Bank of Egypt’s monetary policy committee meets on 17 April to review interest rates. Two factors that will weigh heavily in their decision on whether to cut or not: the global macro environment (roiled by Trump turmoil) and domestic inflation.

Inflation fell in each of the last four months and most recently plunged 11.2percentage points in February to reach 12.8%. The slowdown marked the nation’s lowest inflation reading since March 2022, which most attributed to a favorable base year effect. On a monthly basis, inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%.

The more optimistic of the bunch pointed to an expected stabilization of food and beverage prices, including Economist Mona Bedair, who told EnterpriseAM that they expect inflation to come in at 12.4% as food and beverage price stabilization helps offset a “possible increase in the prices of other non-food baskets including the prices of clothing and restaurants.” This was seconded by HC Securities’ Heba Monir, who also predicted inflation coming in at 12.4% due to the “relative stability in most commodities prices.”

However, our disinflationary path ahead is not set in stone, some of the analysts emphasized in comments to us. Economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us that despite his assessment that the “gradual decline in global prices, exchange rate stability, and controlled government spending” would slow inflation, any new subsidy cuts and energy price hikes “could impact the inflation trajectory and potentially slow the targeted decline.”

Some think that seasonal factors associated with the holy month of Ramadan could see the headline figure inch up, with added inflationary pressures partially offsetting the decline in price inflation of some seasonal vegetables, CI Capital’s Sara Saada told us.

At the higher end of the spectrum was banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal, who penciled in inflation coming in at 16-18% for March and April, provided that economic and geopolitical conditions remain unchanged, he told EnterpriseAM. This rate would be the "preferred rate for countries with economic and monetary conditions similar to ours when beginning the transition from monetary tightening to monetary easing,” he said.

Many of the analysts said the inflation reading could prompt the central bank to begin its monetary easing cycle at the next MPC meeting, as the significant drop in inflation in February and the expected stability of March’s reading are likely to give the CBE the confidence to begin cutting rates. “The outlook is for a gradual rate cut, considering that the U.S. has kept rates steady multiple times recently,” one source told us.

REMEMBER- The MPC decided to keep interest rates unchanged when it held its first meeting of the year in February, in what was expected by some to be the beginning of its long-awaited monetary easing cycle. The MPC deemed that “the current policy rates are appropriate to maintain a sufficiently tight monetary stance. This will ensure the realization of the projected disinflation path, and firmly anchor inflation expectations. Accordingly, the Committee’s decisions regarding the appropriate time for beginning the accommodative cycle will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis.”

When do we get March’s inflation figures? State statistics agency Capmas is expected to release March’s inflation data on Thursday, 10 April.

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6

DEBT WATCH

Egypt Post to issue upcoming retail bonds

The Finance Ministry will begin issuing retail bonds through Egypt Post at what it describes as attractive interest rates, according to the ministry’s mid-year performance report seen by EnterpriseAM. The move is designed to help middle-income Egyptians hedge against inflation, and forms part of the government’s broader strategy to reduce the cost of debt, attract new retail investors, and raise awareness of government debt instruments as secure investment options.

Remember: A government source told EnterprisAM last month that a plan is in the works to launch a dedicated retail bond market in 2025, with support from the World Bank, in a move that would allow individuals to directly invest in treasury bills and bonds for the first time. Interest in government debt has been on the rise, driven by individual investors purchasing through bank agents and custodians.

The Finance Ministry is rolling out a promotional campaign to encourage retail investment in sovereign debt, and is working on additional instruments tailored to specific groups. These include debt-based investment funds targeting Egyptians abroad — particularly in liquidity and fixed-income instruments — as well as new issuances in the primary market like sukuk, infrastructure bonds, and green bonds.

More international issuances are also coming our way, with the report confirming that the ministry has secured the cabinet approval for plans to issue between USD 3-4 bn worth of international bonds in the second half of FY 2024-25. Proceeds from the offering — which may include sukuk and long-term sustainability bonds — will go toward covering USD 3 bn in maturing external debt due during the same period. The issuance will come as global interest rates begin to ease.

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7

EARNINGS WATCH

EFG Holding’s Bank NXT reports record net income for 2024

Bank NXT’s net income hit a record EGP 1.8 bn in 2024: EFG Holding’s Bank NXT reported a 54% y-o-y increase in net income last year, hitting a record EGP 1.8 bn, according to the bank’s latest earnings release (pdf). The lender attributed its performance to “innovative product offerings and strategic partnerships.”

By the numbers: Net interest income grew 54% y-o-y to EGP 3.9 bn in 2024, while operating income rose 37% y-o-y to EGP 4.9 bn, driven by rising interest rates and an expanded lending portfolio. Customer deposits rose 34% to EGP 68 bn by the end of the year, while total assets increased 29% y-o-y to EGP 79.4 bn.

What they said: “Our strong financial results in 2024 are a testament to our strategic expansion and our unwavering commitment to meeting customer needs. By broadening our product and service portfolio, we have successfully reached a wider customer base across Egypt, reinforcing our position as a leading financial institution,” CEO and Managing Director Tamer Seif El Din said.

It has been a busy year for Bank NXT: EFG Holding’s commercial bank, aiBank, rebrandedto Bank NXT in September to mark a new phase of growth, digital innovation, and customer-centric solutions. “This evolution is about more than just a new name — it’s a bold statement of our vision for a faster, more efficient, and digitally driven banking experience. With this renewed identity, we are strengthening our market position, integrating cutting-edge banking standards, and leveraging digital advancements to redefine financial services,” Seif El Din said.

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8

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

French President Emannuel Macron’s visit topped last night’s airwaves

France’s Emmanuel Macron’s arrival in Egypt dominated the airwaves last night, as the French President kicked off a three-day official visit yesterday. During his visit, Macron will meet President Abdel Fattah El Sisi for bilateral talks, which will be followed by a joint press conference. Also on the agenda is a trilateral summit on Gaza held between Macron, El Sisi, and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, in addition to a visit to the border city of Rafah to underscore France’s position on the need for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages.

Macron’s visit to Egypt and attendance at the summit “is evidence that France stands with Egypt and Jordan against forced displacement, for launching a political process, and stopping this humanitarian tragedy," former Assistant Foreign Minister Mohamed Hegazy told Al Hayah’s Lobna Asal (watch, runtime: 11:57)

The French President’s visit got airtime across the airwaves, including on Al Hayah (watch,runtime: 11:57), Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 6:28), and Al Youm (watch, runtime: 28:15).

ALSO ON THE AIRWAVES– Trump’s new tariffs could create a window for Egyptian exporters: Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal (watch, runtime: 24:01) spoke to Chemical and Fertilizers Export Council Deputy Head Mohamed Youssef Zein El Din and Egyptian Federation of Industries’ Readymade Garments Chamber head Mohamed Abdel Salam to weigh in on the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s recently announced tariff hikes. Zein El Din said the high tariffs targeting some countries could actually benefit Egypt, with global investors likely to pivot to Egyptian chemical imports. Abdel Salam echoed the sentiment, arguing that the ongoing trade policy shift presents an opportunity to boost exports — especially under the already active QIZ agreement, which allows Egyptian goods to enter the US market tariff-free if a certain percentage of the product was made in Israel.

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9

Also on our Radar

TBS Holding eyes UAE consumer packaged goods company, KSA IPO in Gulf push. PLUS: Domty, Banque Misr, CIRA Education, Energean, Heliopolis Housing

M&A-

#1- TBS Holding eyes Dubai-based consumer packaged goods company acquisition in Gulf push: Homegrown TBS Holding is currently in talks to acquire a Dubai-based consumer packaged goods firm as part of efforts to strengthen its supply chains, particularly for frozen meals seeing strong demand, Chief Investment Officer Sameh El Sadat told Cairo Weekend’s Zeina Soufan (watch, runtime; 13:56). El Sadat added that the company is mulling an IPO in the Saudi market.

Remember: The company is embarking on an EGP 250 mn local expansion over three years, including a new factory to triple production capacity, while separately investing USD 40 mn in Saudi Arabia, where it's building a commercial-scale bakery through its Shahia Investments partnership.

#2- Domty to exclude bakery unit from Arla acquisition: EGX-listed dairy company Domty is reportedly negotiating to exclude its bakery segment from Denmark-based Arla Foods' potential EGP 8.9 bn acquisition for up to 100% of the company, Asharq Business reports, citing unnamed sources it says have knowledge of the matter. Domty filed a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX confirming that the proposal is being studied and discussed.

ICYMI- Domty plans to invest EGP 200 mn in 2025, focusing on bakery and export growth. The bakery unit, launched in 2018, contributed EGP 478.4 mn (22.4%) to total earnings, with dairy contributing the majority (EGP 1.51 bn, 70.7%).

Ownership breakdown: Expedition Investments holds 32.9% in Domty, International Dairy Investment owns 24.6%, Trivi Holding has 11.5%, and Yahya Mohammed Awad Bin Laden owns 15.7%.

EXPANSION-

#1- Banque Misr to open its first Djiboutian branch this month: State-owned lender Banque Misr will open its first branch in Djibouti on 23 April as part of a wider Africa expansion plan, an unnamed official told Al Shorouk. The lender also plans on opening a branch in Somalia’s Mogadishu and converting its Kenya representative office into a full branch.

This has been in the works for some time: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi announced back in 2022 that Banque Misr was planning on setting up shop in Djibouti, but no specific date was set.

#2- CIRA Education eyes Saudi expansion: EGX-listed education provider CIRA Education is studying potential investments in the Saudi market as part of its plan to set foot in the market, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf).

Part of the plan: Earlier this year, Saudi Public Investment Fund-backed Social Impact Capital increased its stake in the nation’s leading private-sector education company to 88.7% from 51.2%. The move was said to position CIRA for regional expansion.

ENERGY-

Energean still has faith in its Egypt’s assets: Energean is negotiating with Egyptian authorities to consolidate its three local concessions into a single operation, a move CEO Mathios Rigas told Asharq Business would streamline costs and improve efficiency (watch, runtime 12:21). The Mediterranean gas producer argues that larger concession areas would create better economies of scale, with Rigas emphasizing they want to “take advantage of synergies” to free up capital for further investment.

ICYMI- The talks come shortly after Energean terminated its USD 945 mn transaction to sell Mediterranean assets to Carlyle Group.

EARNINGS-

Heliopolis Housing and Development saw a significant drop in net income in 2024, which fell 67.2% y-o-y to EGP 2.6 bn in 2024, according to the company’s latest earnings (pdf). The real estate player saw operating revenues dip 93.2% y-o-y to EGP 1.1 bn during the year.

Dividend distribution: The company’s board approved paying shareholders a dividend of EGP 1.33 per share for its 2024 earnings, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf).

MANUFACTURING-

#1- Another industrial zone incoming: Real estate player Arabia Holding secured a 2.3 mn sqm plot worth EGP 4.5 bn from the New Urban Communities Authority, which it will use to set up an industrial zone, an unnamed source told Al Shorouk. The company plans to offer the first phase of the zone to investors before the end of the year.

#2- Realme to open smartphone local factory this June: Chinese smartphone maker Realme will open its first local manufacturing facility in Egypt this June, Cairo Chamber of Commerce’s mobile division head Mohamed Talaat told Al Shorouk. The factory will produce four models initially, and while Talaat didn’t disclose production volume, he said the move could slash local Realme handset prices by over 50%, thanks to reduced import and customs costs. Talaat hinted that a local Apple factory could follow, citing stronger investor confidence amid ongoing state efforts to support domestic production.

HOSPITALITY-

#1- Gov't sets licensing rules for holiday home rentals: The Tourism Ministry has issued new regulations to license holiday home units — furnished apartments, villas, and suites rented to tourists — as part of its push to diversify accommodation options and bring short-term rentals under formal oversight, according to a ministry statement. The new framework aims to ensure safety, comfort, and service quality, while simplifying procedures to help operators obtain the required licenses.

What qualifies as a holiday home? The new category includes any unit with at least one room — up to full villas — located in designated tourist areas or upscale residential compounds. Licensed units must meet minimum service and safety standards and receive a tourism suitability certificate. Operators are required to notify the ministry electronically, submit all supporting documents, and pay the prescribed fees. The rules come into effect the day after their publication.

#2- Another pyramid-view hotel in the works: An Egyptian-Saudi-Kuwaiti alliance is looking to set up a EGP 3 bn pyramid-view hotel, an unnamed official told Asharq Business, naming state-owned Banque Misr’s Misr Abu Dhabi Co. for Investment as the Egyptian partner on the project. The hotel will be built on a 7.5k sqm plot facing the Grand Egyptian Museum. Construction on the project is scheduled to start during 4Q 2025.

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10

PLANET FINANCE

MENA markets suffer sharp losses amid tariff, oil woes

It’s a bruising start to the week for MENA equities as global markets recoiled from the Trump administration’s decision to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, which came into effect starting Saturday. Slumping oil prices and mounting fears of a prolonged trade war sparked a broad-based selloff.

Tadawul takes the biggest hit on Aramco plunge: The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) plunged 6.8% on Sunday — its worst session since May 2020. Saudi Aramco led the sharp losses, erasing more than USD 90 bn of market cap mid-session. Meanwhile, the Nomu parallel market also fell 6.5%.

Over in Egypt, the EGX30 lost 3.3% yesterday following a strong rally in recent months, with all the index’s components in the red. The index is still up 3.0.% YTD. Meanwhile, the UAE saw Dubai’s DFM falling 1.5%, and Abu Dhabi’s ADX slipping 0.8% on Friday. Investors will be watching for more downside during today's open, as markets had closed ahead of the official tariff rollout.

Elsewhere: Qatar’s QE Index dropped 4.2%, with almost every listed company closing in the red. Oman’s MSX30 fell 2.6%, while Jordan’s ASE dropped 2.1% amid its inclusion in the high-tariff group. Tunisia’s Tunindex edged down 0.1%, and Morocco’s MASI lost 0.2%.

IN CONTEXT- The base 10% tariff came into effect over the weekend, with steeper rates — up to 49% — on goods from 57 countries set to hit this Wednesday, 9 April. Much of the Arab world dodged the worst — including Saudi, the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, and others, who are only facing the 10% levy — others were less fortunate: Syria (41%), Iraq (39%), Libya (31%), Algeria (30%), Tunisia (28%), and Jordan (20%) are facing higher rates.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are inching down this morning as the tariff shakedown continues to roil global markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 9.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei is down 6.5% and the Shanghai Composite is close behind at 6.0%. Wall Street futures are also signalling more losses for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow on market open.

EGX30

30,640

+3.3% (YTD: +3.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 51.06

Sell 51.19

USD (CIB)

Buy 51.08

Sell 51.18

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

11,077

-6.8% (YTD: -8.0%)

ADX

9187

-0.8% (YTD: -2.5%)

DFM

4951

-1.5% (YTD: -4.0%)

S&P 500

5,074

-6.0% (YTD: -13.7%)

FTSE 100

8,055

-5.0% (YTD: -1.4%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,878

-4.6% (YTD: -0.4%)

Brent crude

USD 65.58

-6.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.84

-7.3%

Gold

USD 3,035.40

-2.8%

BTC

USD 78,047

-6.7% (YTD: -16.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 3.3% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 3.6 bn (1.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 3.0% YTD.

In the red: Fawry (-7.5%), Qalaa Holdings (-6.4%), and Rameda (-6.3%).

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

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11

BLACKBOARD

A look at Egypt’s efforts to internationalize higher education

Twenty public and private Egyptian universities have joined the Brics Network University, a consortium of higher education institutions from the Brics bloc established to foster collaboration in education and research among member nations, according to a statement by the Supreme Council of Universities (SCU). The move is one of many recent developments that point to the country’s efforts to internationalize the higher ed sector, with a handful of universities rising in one of the most widely recognized university rankings globally, some looking to set up abroad, and others updating their curricula.

Background: Egypt joined the Brics Network University back in June after inking a protocol of accession at a Brics Education Ministers meeting. During the session, participants also agreed to expand the alliance by increasing the number of member universities to 20 in each participating country.

What this means for the local higher ed sector: Joining the alliance opens the door to new partnerships and academic programs that will help improve the quality of education, keep pace with global developments, and graduate students who are better prepared for the global labor market, said President of New Mansoura University (NMU) Meawad El Kholy, who represented Egypt at the Brics Universities Rectors’ Forum in October.

Some Egyptian universities are gaining ground in global rankings: Nineteen Egyptian universities made it to the 2025 QS World University Rankings, up from 15 universities in 2024, according to the SCU statement.

ICYMI- Advancing local universities in international rankings is a key part of Egypt's education strategy. The government is working towards having at least 28 Egyptian universities on the QS World University Rankings by the end El Sisi’s third term in 2030.

A Brics ranking university system is in the works: Brics representatives met in Septembertodiscuss the creation of a new university ranking system.

A handful of public Egyptian universities are expanding overseas: The SCU has approved Alexandria University’s decision to establish branches in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh, Iraq, and Greece, according to the SCU statement. Ain Shams University is also working on agreements to set up branches abroad, a source told us, indicating that it may look beyond the Gulf. Meanwhile, Cairo University is in negotiations to establish a branch within UAE’s Ajman University, a source at the top Egyptian university said. This follows earlier approvals for Cairo University to open campuses in Riyadh and Qatari capital Doha.

The private sector is getting in on the action, too: Future University in Egypt has received an offer to open a branch for postgraduate studies in the UAE, university president Ebada Sarhan told EnterpriseAM.

It’s a two-way street, with foreign universities also eyeing Egypt. The government is actively encouraging international universities to set up in Egypt as part of its strategy to internationalize higher education, raise academic standards, and position Egypt as a regional education hub. Egypt currently hosts nine international university branches and more are on the way.

More global partnerships are on the agenda: Egypt wants to establish an alliance of Arab universities to facilitate partnerships with other international institutions, El Kholy said. Egyptian universities are increasingly partnering with schools abroad, he said, citing NMU’s own partnerships with the University of Louisville, University of East London, William Paterson University, and a Canadian university. A student delegation from NMU will soon travel to UofL as part of an academic exchange program, he added.

The partnership model is prompting local universities to review and refine their curricula, adopting programs that focus on applied learning and cater to industry-specific needs, El Kholy said. Universities are shifting away from traditional curricula and towards double majors, interdisciplinary programs, and more in-depth courses, he explained. To better support these partnerships, Egypt needs to boost investment in smart university infrastructure, El Kholy said. This includes digital tools and smart classrooms.

Your top education stories for the week:

  • Egypt plans to establish seven new national universities in Sohag, Kafr El Sheikh, the new capital, 6th of October, Beheira, Suez, and the New Valley as part of the state’s plan to raise the total number of national universities to 32 nationwide.
  • The Higher Education Ministry will kick off the second International Conference on Technological Education tomorrow, bringing together some 2.2k participants from academia, government, and industry under the theme “education today for tomorrow’s jobs.” (Higher Education Ministry statement)
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CALENDAR

APRIL

6-8 April (Monday-Tuesday): French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Egypt.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit, Somabay

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE.

10 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for March.

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

27 April (Sunday): Deadline for applications to MINT Incubator's 3-month equity-free startup program with Alex Angels.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

30 April (Wednesday): Deadline for Australia Awards Scholarships applications.

Mid-April: Egyptian trade delegation to promote investments during an official visit to Canada

Business-to-business forum of Egyptian and Moroccan companies to promote bilateral trade, Cairo, Egypt.

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

MAY

7-10 May (Tuesday-Saturday): Egypt hosts the 24th Pan Arab Junior and Ladies Golf Championship.

10 May (Saturday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for April.

1 May-10 July (Thursday-Tuesday): 500 Global's Scale Up Program, Cairo

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

Egyptian-Russian Business Forum

May 2025: Egypt-Singapore Business Forum, Cairo.

JUNE

10 June (Tuesday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for May.

MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

Realme to open smartphone factory

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2026

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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