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Monday, 6 Oct 2025

What We're Tracking Today
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Non-oil private sector activity contracts further in September

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Today at a glance

1

What We're Tracking Today

Israel, Hamas delegations are in town for ceasefire negotiations.
2

Economy

Non-oil private sector activity decelerates further in September.
3

Energy

We’re importing less LNG than originally planned this month.
4

M&A WATCH

Al Baraka eyes majority stake in Al Tawfeek Leasing through share-swap MTO.
5

Fintech

FRA approves GRANITE’s planned multi-currency fixed-income fund.
6

DEBT WATCH

Tamweel, Tasaheel close landmark debt transactions.
7

Moves

Concrete appoints Matteo Zappala as CEO.
8

Also on our Radar

Fresh updates on Zafarana repowering project.
9

PLANET FINANCE

AI hype intensifies — but signs of a bubble burst are alarming.
10

BLACKBOARD

Private schools to introduce new Egyptian baccalaureate system to their curriculum offerings, alongside Thanaweya Amma.

Monday, 6 Oct 2025

What We're Tracking Today
Economy
Energy
M&a Watch
Fintech
Debt Watch
Moves
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

Israel, Hamas delegations are in Egypt for ceasefire negotiations

Good morning, friends. We kick off this cool fall morning with a busy issue led by September’s PMI reading — which saw non-oil private sector activity contract again — and the government once again slashing its LNG import target for the month. We expect the news cycle to remain busy with ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas kicking off in Egypt later today.

BUT FIRST- We’ve got just one more sleep left before this year’s EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum, which takes place tomorrow.

You’ll want to make it on time. Our must-attend gathering of senior business leaders begins at 8am sharp with our trademark standing breakfast and networking session. You’ll want to be on time: Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation Rania Al Mashat is the first of two keynote interviews that you won’t want to miss. The minister will be on stage at 9am.

Come and find out why we’re feeling optimistic about 2026 — and even more so about 2027 and beyond. With Egypt at a turning point, we’re going to dig into the issues that will set the tone for years to come — and talk about how you should be positioning yourself and your business to benefit. Among the topics on the agenda:

  • How is the alliance between Egypt and the UAE reshaping the region’s economy?
  • How are top execs preparing for 2026 — and what strategies they’re using to ensure their businesses are built to last.
  • Where (and how) we will live (and work) in 2035?
  • What’s working — and what’s not — for Egyptian companies expanding into new markets.
  • Can we get capital markets off life support?
  • Where is AI a threat to our businesses — and where could it give us all superpowers?

Registration for the event is now closed. Due to overwhelming interest from the community, we regret that we cannot accommodate everyone who has asked to be invited.

The 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is part of our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings that allow senior members of our community to openly and frankly discuss critical issues in key sectors of the economy. You can check out the conference website here.

PSA-

Workers of all stripes are in line for a long weekend, with the private sector nowjoining the public sector and banks in taking Thursday, 9 October off in observance of Armed Forces Day. The EGX is now the only one left to confirm the day off, but we’d be surprised if it didn’t follow suit.

EnterpriseAM Egypt will also be taking a break from your inboxes on Thursday, but we will be back Sunday with all the important updates from the long weekend.

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 28°C and a low of 20°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- First gas from the Cyprus’ Cronos field is unlikely to come before late 2027, industry publication Middle East Economic Survey (Mees) reports, citing remarks from Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou. Italian operator Eni has yet to submit a field development plan but hopes to take a final investment decision before year-end. This would put the first gas date roughly two and a half years later — in late 2027 or early 2028 — if development work and gas pricing negotiations proceed on schedule.

Why do we care? Gas from the Cronos field will be coming our way to be liquified in facilities in Idku and Damietta before being re-exported to foreign markets under an agreement inked between our Oil Ministry and Cyprus. Cypriot gas was reported to start flowing to Egypt starting in 2027, with Eni expected to complete a 90-km subsea pipeline linking the Cronos field to Port Said by the end of 2027, bringing in around 500 mcf/d, a percentage of which will be used to feed the national grid.

The local market could get some of the gas: “We will send the natural gas to the Zohr infrastructure … and from there with a pipeline for liquefaction and processing and to the local market in Egypt if the parties decide so,” Papanastasiou was quoted as saying.

#2- Where does our USD 35 bn gas agreement with Israel stand? Israel’s Leviathan gas field partners have until the end of the month to meet conditions for the USD 35 bn agreement with Egypt, Mees reports. The agreement, signed with state-owned Blue Ocean Energy, could see 130 bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas sent to Egypt from 2026 through 2040.

The Leviathan partners — Chevron, NewMed Energy, and Ratio — must still clear several conditions for the agreement to proceed. Israel’s Energy Ministry has already approved their development plan for the Leviathan expansion, paving the way for a final investment decision later this month.

The logistics angle: The consortium has also reached terms with state network operator INGL to use the planned 600 mcf/d Nitzana pipeline linking Israel’s southern grid to Sinai. The Leviathan partners signaled their intent to proceed independently through Nitzana if other Israeli gas producers — namely Tamar and Karish operators — fail to sign transportation terms before month-end, Mees said.

The remaining obstacle lies in Israel’s domestic regulatory and political arena: A dispute among Tamar partners over gas pricing for Israel’s state utility has triggered concerns over rising electricity costs, Mees added. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also reportedly froze the agreement amid rising Israeli-Egyptian tensions. The coming weeks will determine whether the partners can secure government approvals and finalize the agreement.

#3- Discussions are still ongoing between Egypt and the IMF over the state privatization program, IMF Executive Director and former Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Al Arabiya. The talks cover measures to expand private sector participation in the economy, one of three main reform tracks under Egypt’s agreement with the IMF alongside monetary and fiscal policy adjustments. The timing of the upcoming reviews remains under discussion, he said, adding that further reforms, particularly under the state ownership policy, are needed to unlock the country’s growth potential.

SPEAKING OF PRIVATIZATION- A fresh package of incentives to boost activity on the bourse will be announced within days, paving the way for the next wave of privatization, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM. This next phase of privatization will kick off with a company affiliated with the military’s National Service Projects Organization hitting the EGX soon, the source said. Meanwhile, the long-awaited sale of a stake in Banque du Caire will likely be pushed to 1Q 2026 to capitalize on stronger market conditions.

ICYMI- IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently said the Fund is open to Egypt pushing its privatization timeline to 2026, as long as it maintains a credible reform path. A mission from the Fund is expected in Cairo this month to prepare for the combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt’s USD 8 bn loan program, where progress on asset sales and private sector expansion will be top of the agenda.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The world’s press will be focusing on Egypt today as it hosts delegations from Israel and Hamas for discussions on the US President Donald Trump-proposed ceasefire agreement. The two sides will discuss the conditions for a ceasefire in Gaza and the details of the hostage exchange. Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are already in Cairo to finalize details of the hostage release and discuss the broader peace framework.

As things stand: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a hostage release could be announced this week, while Trump confirmed Hamas had accepted elements of the US plan. The Israeli delegation is yet to arrive in Sharm El Sheikh — where the negotiations will take place — while Hamas representatives have already arrived. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the moment as “the closest we’ve come to getting all of the hostages released.” Trump warned Hamas faces “complete obliteration” if it refuses to cede power but said negotiations are “going very well” and could conclude within days. (CNN | Associated Press)

Arab, Islamic FMs welcome Hamas response to Trump’s plan: Foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar welcomed steps taken by Hamas in response to Trump’s proposal to end the war in Gaza, according to a joint statement shared yesterday. The ministers voiced support for Trump’s call for Israel to halt its bombardment and said the initiative offers a real chance to achieve a lasting ceasefire and ease Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.

What’s in the plan? The 20-point plan — which secured Israeli backing last week — calls for an immediate ceasefire, a swap of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, a staged Israeli withdrawal, and Hamas’ disarmament. It envisions Gaza run by a technocratic Palestinian committee backed by a “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump.

#2- Egypt Innovation Week wraps up today, bringing to a close what its organizers describe as a country-wide “week-long celebration [that] brings together entrepreneurs, investors, educators, and government leaders to spark collaboration and drive real impact.”

It’s also the last day of the event’s Techne Summit Alexandria at the Alexandria Bibliotheca, which is gathering the region’s best and brightest entrepreneurs and investors to discuss everything from AI, data privacy, and funding to Gen Z breaking the economic mold.

DATA POINT-

#1- The country’s nine public freezones have attracted some USD 38.7 bn worth of investments, spread between some 1.2k separate projects, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib said. The zones have created 228k jobs and contribute around 20% of the country’s entire non-petroleum exports.

#2- Property exports rose to USD 1.5 bn this year, up from USD 500 mn in 2024, showing significant growth in property sales to foreign buyers, Real Estate Developers Chamber Chairman Tarek Shoukry is quoted as saying by Mubasher.

#3- Gold prices rose 2.9% last week, with 21-carat gold gaining EGP 145 to close at EGP 5.2k per gram, driven by a 3.4% rise in global prices to USD 3.9k per ounce amid the US government shutdown and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts, according to a report from iSagha.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Investors have until 20 October to bid for 386 ready-to-deliver industrial units across the country offered up on the Egypt Industrial Digital Platform, spread across 12 industrial complexes in 11 governorates, according to a statement from the Industry Ministry.

The offering includes units ranging from 48-792 sqm for engineering, chemicals, food, textiles, ready-made garments, metals, plastics, and pharma activities. It includes facilities in Beni Suef, Sohag, Red Sea, Qena, Assiut, Minya, Fayoum, Luxor, Alexandria, Aswan, and Gharbia. Applicants can own or lease the units.

The government is also offering a 5% declining interest rate on loans and bank financing covering up to 100% of the unit’s value, along with financing for equipment and machinery, and the provision of technical and marketing support through the MSME Development Agency.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at the government’s plans to encourage the production of sheet metal through new incentive packages for local manufacturers. Check out the story here.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Gold and BTC hit fresh highs to start the week as investors flock to safe haven assets amid a government shutdown that is now entering its sixth day. Gold rose to USD 3,920.63 an ounce, before paring some gains, while BTC reached USD 125,689 for the first time early yesterday. BTC’s rise also comes during a month that has historically been a strong month for digital assets’ performance — earning it the nickname “Uptober.”

Gold’s rise is featured on Bloomberg and Financial Times’ front pages, while BTC’s new record got attention from Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC.

ALSO- All eyes are on the Egypt-hosted talks between Israel and Hamas today to discuss the US President Donald Trump-proposed ceasefire agreement. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT)

We have more on the talks in the news well, above.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look at recently-introduced rules that require private schools to implement the new Egyptian baccalaureate system.

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As the Sahel summer winds down, the Red Sea is just getting started. Say hello to Somabay, a year-round seaside escape where tranquil waters, world-class diving, kitesurfing, golf, and wellness come together in one breathtaking destination. This September, it also hosts the ITF World Tennis Tour, bringing world-class tennis to the coast. Somabay is the perfect next stop, a place where the season never ends, and every day feels like the first day of summer

2

Economy

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity decelerates further in September

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity slipped further in September as new orders dipped at the quickest pace in five months, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers Index report (pdf). The country’s headline figure fell in September to a three-month low of 48.8, down from August’s 49.2.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The country’s headline figure has been below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for seven straight months and has only pushed up into the green twice since November 2020. Despite the dip, the reading is still above the survey’s historical average of 48.2.

New orders saw the fastest decline since April, stemming from a drop in sales due to “subdued economic conditions, rising prices and greater wage pressures,” according to businesses surveyed. In line with falling demand, output decline accelerated for the seventh consecutive month in September, but it was moderate and softer than the series' long-run trend. Businesses also raised their selling prices for the fifth straight month to pass higher costs through to customers.

Businesses scaled back their purchasing for the seventh consecutive month, albeit at a moderate pace. Meanwhile, stocks of purchased items inched up for the first time since May as some firms chose to hold more inputs in reserve.

But on the bright side, cost pressures eased to their lowest level since March, which businesses partially attributed to the EGP’s relative stability against the USD. “Although companies are struggling to gain new work amid challenging market conditions as a whole, they can take some comfort from a softening of input cost pressures, driven by the EGP’s strengthening against the USD over recent months,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote. Firms also reported some upward pressure on wages, with total staff costs edging up to their highest level since May 2024.

Employment remained broadly unchanged during September, after inching up across the two previous months, marking a stalling of hiring growth.

Business sentiment continued to reach new historic lows, with overall expectations for the year ahead dipping to one of their lowest levels in the survey’s history, despite the softening input inflation.

The PMI reading reinforces the need for a balanced policy approach that supports economic activity without compromising stability, banking expert Hany Hafez told EnterpriseAM. With demand still weak, monetary easing alone won’t be enough, Hafez said, adding that any move by the central bank should be complemented by targeted measures to stimulate production and employment so that stability translates into real growth.

The recent stabilization of input costs, helped by a steadier exchange rate, gives policymakers some breathing room to adjust monetary policy, Hafez said. However, Hafez cautioned that the persistent weakness in new orders shows that confidence, not just liquidity, is the key missing ingredient. Building that confidence, he said, will require consistent economic and tax policies, as well as efforts to boost exports and private investment.

ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION-

  • In the UAE, the headline PMI (pdf) edged up to 54.2, up from 53.3 in August;
  • In Saudi Arabia, non-oil business activity saw a robust improvement, with the seasonally adjusted figure (pdf) coming in at 57.8 in September, up from 56.4 a month earlier;
  • Kuwait’s non-oil private sector saw a softened expansion in business conditions, with the headline PMI (pdf) dropping to 52.2 in September from 53.0 in August.
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3

Energy

Egypt is importing less LNG than originally planned this month

Less LNG coming our way: The Oil Ministry plans to reduce the number of agreed-upon LNG shipments scheduled for shipment this month to six, from an initially planned 19, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

For the second month running: Egypt welcomed only 14 LNG shipments last month, marking a dip from initially-planned shipments amid falling domestic consumption, the source said.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Egypt is now expected to import between 20 and 24 shipments during the final quarter of the year, compared to a previous target of 40 shipments, the source said. The reduction in imports comes amid strong indications of growing local output, the source added, pointing to additional volumes being added from newly discovered wells, foreign partners ramping up field development and injecting significant new investments that will strengthen domestic production.

REMEMBER- Last week, we reported that the country has been left with a queue of LNG vessels looking to unload their supplies and get on their way after energy demand fell. Unnamed sources told Bloomberg at the time that Egypt is “struggling to correctly assess its demand and schedule deliveries.”

The issue will soon be resolved with the accumulated vessels at Ain Sokhna Port currently being unloaded, the source added.

Local natural gas output has risen to 4.2 bn cubic feet per day, marking an increase of 110 mn cubic feet per day compared to June, according to the source.

IN OTHER ENERGY NEWS-

QatarEnergy has acquired a 27% stake in the North Cleopatra offshore concession in the Mediterranean pending government approval, according to a statement. Shell will remain the operator with a 36% stake, while Chevron holds 27%, and state-owned Tharwa Petroleum owns the remaining 10%. Shell plans to funnel USD 160 mn into drilling exploratory wells in the North East Amriya and North Cleopatra concessions in 2H 2026.

Not QatarEnergy’s first venture: The company acquired a 40% working interest in ExxonMobil’s Cairo and Masry offshore concessions under a farm-in agreement inked last year. QatarEnergy also holds 40% of the Mediterranean’s North Marakia offshore concession, while Exxon holds the remaining 60%.

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4

M&A WATCH

Al Baraka eyes majority stake in Al Tawfeek Leasing through share-swap MTO

Al Baraka Bank wants a bigger slice of Al Tawfeek Leasing: Al Baraka Bank - Egypt has notified the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) of its intention to launch a mandatory tender offer (MTO) to acquire a controlling stake in Al Tawfeek Leasing Company, according to a statement (pdf).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: Through the MTO, Al Baraka wants to raise its holding in Al Tawfeek from 7.62% to as much as 90%, with a minimum acceptance threshold of 51%. The acquisition will be executed through a share swap — Al Tawfeek shareholders who choose to sell will receive newly-issued shares in Al Baraka Bank. The exact share exchange ratio will be set by a financial advisor.

What’s next? The lender has 59 days to submit its formal tender.

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5

Fintech

FRA approves GRANITE’s planned multi-currency fixed-income fund

GRANITE received the Financial Regulatory Authority’s (FRA) green light to launch a multi-currency fixed-income fund, the technology-forward asset management company said in a statement (pdf). The upcoming GRANITE money market fund will kick off with an EGP-denominated issuance, which will be carried out in partnership with Naeem Holding.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The company leverages “technology to offer innovative, client-centric products and solutions that transform idle liquidity into financial power for individuals and corporates alike,” according to founder and CEO Hisham Akram. The planned fund will invest only in Egyptian treasury bills and government securities, which it says will protect investors from credit risk while offering better returns than bank deposits, tax-free returns for corporates, and a fully liquid option for individuals with daily returns.

GRANITE is also getting ready to launch fully digital money market accounts, which it says will be “a pivotal first step in introducing the simplest and most effective way for users to maximize returns on their liquid cash.” The FRA is currently reviewing the company’s digital license application ahead of its planned digital money market account launch. Later down the line, the company is also planning to apply for a license from the FRA for an upcoming USD fund before the end of 2025.

It’s all connected: “We are building the cash layer Egypt has been missing. GRANITE comes to market with a fully digital Money Market Account. The MMF is chapter one, and the MMA launches next with a direct sweep to and from the fund. Link your GRANITE MMA to your bank accounts, move money in seconds, and capture the higher MMF yields through a seamless experience,” Akram told EnterpriseAM. “Onboarding is digital in under three minutes. You get higher daily returns on cash than a typical bank account, all inside a simple app experience.”

Products like GRANITE are essential for making our financial inclusion targets reality. “Traditional banking alone will not deliver inclusion at scale,” Akram said. “A fully digital, secure experience brings people and businesses in quickly, offers better service, and delivers higher returns. That is our ethos. Better products that promote financial inclusion and engagement while channeling more savings into regulated money market instruments to deepen the capital market,” he added.

The long-term plan: Following the launch of the USD fund, the company plans to launch a debit card and third-party payment solutions, allowing clients to pay bills while earning “superior returns,” Akram told us.

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6

DEBT WATCH

Tamweel, Tasaheel close landmark debt transactions

Egypt’s debt capital markets continue to gather momentum, with more than EGP 9 bn in new sukuk and securitization transactions closed, reflecting growing demand for structured and shariah-compliant instruments to fund corporate growth.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Tamweel Mortgage Finance finalized a EGP 5.52 bn mudaraba sukuk issuance to finance the acquisition of a portfolio of under-construction units from Talaat Moustafa Group’s Arab Company for Projects and Urban Development, according to a statement (pdf). The proceeds will be used by the developer to complete the units construction, giving the transaction a hybrid mudaraba–istisna’a structure. The issuance — the first of its kind in the Middle East for a mortgage company — is rated AA- by Middle East Ratings and Investors Service (Meris) and marks a key milestone for Egypt’s growing sukuk market.

Buyers: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Industrial Development Bank, Emirates NBD, and Faisal Islamic Bank bought into the issuance. Al Ahly Pharos, National Bank of Egypt, Suez Canal Bank, Arab African International Bank, and Al Baraka Bank acted as the transaction’s underwriters.

ADVISORS- The National Bank of Egypt acted as the placement agent, the Arab African International Bank served as the payment agent, and Dreny and Partners provided counsel. Baker Tilly acted as the auditor, Meris served as the rating agency, and RSM was the independent financial advisor.

Separately, MNT-Halan’s microfinance arm Tasaheel completed a EGP 3.75 bn securitization, its third under a EGP 20 bn securitization program, according to a statement (pdf). The microfinance player closed a EGP 4.7 bn SME-backed issuance in June and EGP 5.1 bn issuance in January.

ADVISORS- CI Capital and Al Ahly Pharos acted as financial advisors, while Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy provided counsel. Baker Tilly acted as the auditor, Capital Securitization Company as the issuer, and Meris as the rating agency.

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7

Moves

Concrete appoints Matteo Zappala as CEO

Concrete for Ready-Made Garments named Matteo Zappala (LinkedIn) as its new CEO, replacing Mohamed Talaat Khalifa after he stepped down on 30 September, the parent company said in a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. Zappala initially joined the homegrown fashion brand in January 2024 as the company’s chief operating officer, following a more than 20-year career in fashion and management.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What they said: “His proven leadership and international expertise in the fashion industry will be invaluable in supporting the brand’s continued evolution and in reinforcing its strong position in the retail market,” said Concrete Fashion Group CEO Alaa Arafa.

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8

Also on our Radar

Fresh updates on Zafarana repowering project

RENEWABLES-

Voltalia plans to invest USD 250 mn to develop its 3.2 GW renewables Suez project with Taqa Arabia, Karim Elazzawy, the French renewables firm managing director for Egypt and Jordan, told Asharq Business. The project to repower the existing 545 MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power is expected to cost more than USD 2 bn. The project’s developers will contribute around a quarter of the needed capital, with the remainder coming from international development finance institutions, Elazzawy said.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

REMEMBER- Voltalia and Taqa Arabia signed a MoU with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company and the New and Renewable Energy Authority late last year to repower the renewables station. The project is expected to be Egypt’s first fully integrated wind-solar power station, optimizing land use and reducing costs compared to conventional single-technology stations.

MANUFACTURING-

India’s BMEC Imaging will establish a USD 4.5 mn medical manufacturing and remanufacturing facility in Egypt, according to a statement. The BMEC Imaging Egypt project will manufacture and refurbish X-ray, dialysis, and MRI machines, in addition to other high-tech pieces of medical technology.

BANKING-

Bank NXT to help Social Housing Fund expand mortgage financing: The Social Housing and Mortgage Finance Fund signed a cooperation protocol with Bank NXT to expand mortgage financing for low and middle income housing, increasing the cap to EGP 2 bn from EGP 800 mn, according to a statement (pdf). The fund will also roll out an upgraded digital platform to streamline applications, after receiving over 2.1 mn requests for housing units under its programs.

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9

PLANET FINANCE

AI hype intensifies — but signs of a bubble burst are alarming

The AI hype is igniting investors' sentiment, pushing the US stock market to record highs while increasing the risks of rapid selloff, Bloomberg reported, citing Goldman Sachs Group’s trading desk. The trend, driven by a strong fear of missing out (FOMO), is at its highest levels since December 2024, causing investors to overlook risks like uncertainties in valuations, trade market, and the slowing labor market.

AI gains on optimism: Some 40% of clients surveyed expect the S&P 500 Index to outpace global peers in October, putting the bullish sentiment at its highest level since December 2024. The heavy-tech index closed on a record high 27 times from June to 3 October, primarily due to AI bullishness, according to Bloomberg’s data.

Going strong: Goldman Sachs clients indicated they plan to double down on their investments in the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft. Over 50% of people surveyed are eyeing AI infrastructure stocks, with the majority expecting momentum to outplay the S&P 500 by year-end.

BUT- Is the AI bubble about to burst? Signs of a peak bubble are now live, including massive capital expenditure by major tech companies and US stock market concentration, Ian Harnett says in the Financial Times. Flying-high stock prices, as well as in-sector companies sealing agreements with each other and purchasing one another’s products, are also among signs of a bubble burst, Harnett argued.

Others concur: “While almost all indicators point up, this setup also increases the probability of rapid unwinds down the road. Buyers beware,” Oscar Ostlund, global head of content strategy, market analytics and data science for Goldman’s digital platform Marquee told Bloomberg.

History repeats itself: The pattern mirrors historical tech revolutions, most notably the TMT (dot-com) bubble of the late 1990s, which also saw a boom in infrastructure spending before it reached its endgame, Harnett added. Tech bubbles tend to burst not because the technology itself fails, but due to external pressures like regulation, competition, or slowing customer demand, he said.

The long-term scene could be more nuanced. A burst, while painful for late-stage investors, is often a necessary part of the innovation cycle, Harnett argues. The “creative destruction” inherent to bubbles ends up giving access to new technologies at lower prices, leading to the technology being embedded in society, he added.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is leading the gains with a 4.5% increase in early trading, following a record high yesterday after pro-stimulus Sanae Takaichi was picked to head the ruling Liberal Democratic Party — and possibly become Japan’s first female prime minister. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are little changed amid the US government shutdown.

EGX30

37,211

+0.8% (YTD: +25.1%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.56

Sell 47.70

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.60

Sell 47.70

Interest rates (CBE)

21.00% deposit

22.00% lending

Tadawul

11,529

+0.3% (YTD: -4.2%)

ADX

10,073

+0.1% (YTD: +6.9%)

DFM

5,918

0.0% (YTD: +14.7%)

S&P 500

6,716

0.0% (YTD: +14.2%)

FTSE 100

9,491

+0.7% (YTD: +16.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,652

+0.1% (YTD: +15.4%)

Brent crude

USD 65.39

+1.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.39

+2.0%

Gold

USD 3,933

+0.6%

BTC

USD 123,509

+0.9% (YTD: +32.0%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

929.55

+0.1% (YTD: +19.5%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

150.83

0.0% (YTD: +7.8%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

16.65

+0.1% (YTD: -4.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.2 bn (5.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.1% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+4.1%), Misr Cement (+3.7%), and Egypt Aluminum (+2.2%).

In the red: Telecom Egypt (-1.6%), Ibnsina Pharma (-1.3%), and Rameda (-0.9%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

ADIB Egypt’s general assembly approved increasing the bank's issued and paid-in capital to EGP 15 bn, up from EGP 12 bn, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. The EGP 3 bn increase will be distributed over 300 mn shares at a par value of EGP 10 per share and an issuance cost of EGP 0.1 per share.

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

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BLACKBOARD

Private schools to introduce new Egyptian baccalaureate system to their curriculum offerings, alongside Thanaweya Amma

The government is now requiring all private schools to implement the new Egyptian baccalaureate system and to obtain a license from the Education Ministry to teach this system for the first time as an optional track alongside the Thanaweya Amma system. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly issued a decree seen by EnterpriseAM setting the rules for implementing the new system in private schools — including both Arabic and language schools.

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Under the new rules:

  • Private schools must have the qualified staff, technical facilities, and resources required for the baccalaureate system, in line with the standards applied in comparable public schools.
  • The license to operate the baccalaureate system in private schools will be issued by the Education Ministry.
  • The baccalaureate will be applied under the same rules governing public schools following the same system, especially regarding curricula, examination systems, examinations, and fees for taking exams.
  • Licensed private schools must allow students to choose freely between enrolling in the baccalaureate or the Thanaweya Amma system.
  • Private schools may not collect any additional fees for a student choosing to join the baccalaureate system.
  • The Education Ministry and the relevant educational directorates will be responsible for monitoring and supervising compliance with the system’s requirements and regulations.

REMEMBER- The House Education Committee approved amendments to the Education Law in July that introduce a new baccalaureate system. The proposed system, which will run alongside Thanaweya Amma rather than replacing it, will be optional, without charge, and structured over three years after preparatory school. Students will choose from core and elective subjects aligned with their interests and career goals, with the ability to retake exams multiple times to ensure readiness for university and the job market.

According to the decree, private schools that meet the requirements are allowed to obtain an official license to implement the baccalaureate system, provided that students have obtained the Edadiya certificate or an equivalent foreign preparatory education certificate, and that schools comply with the national school code, as well as the technical and educational standards required to teach the curriculum following baccalaureate criteria. Private schools adopting this system will be under the full administrative and technical supervision of the Private Education Department at the Education Ministry.

The new Egyptian baccalaureate system is currently undergoing international accreditation, Education Ministry Spokesperson Shady Zalata told EnterpriseAM. The system will meet all students’ educational needs, as the baccalaureate is a globally recognized framework, he said. It will be optional in Egypt, meaning both systems will be available for students to choose from, with no specific schools dedicated exclusively to the baccalaureate.

All private schools under the Private School Owners Association are open to the introduction of the new baccalaureate system and are seeking licenses from the ministry to implement it, Deputy Chairman Badawy Allam told EnterpriseAM. The association believes that the new system is important, as it will gradually eliminate private tutoring, restore student confidence in Egypt’s education system, and reduce the number of subjects, shifting focus to understanding and comprehension, Allam said. The system is also set to incorporate tech and artificial intelligence tools to enhance learning outcomes.

What advantages is the baccalaureate offering? The new system divides academic subjects over two years instead of one, giving students more time and chances to improve their grades and achieve higher results, according to Allam.The international accreditation of the baccalaureate will also support the prospects of students who wish to continue their studies abroad. The system also includes all the features of international education in terms of subject structure and curriculum design, enhancing overall education quality.

A comprehensive survey of private schools showed that 100% of students opted for the baccalaureate system instead of the Thanaweya Amma, Allam revealed. This overwhelming preference encouraged schools to apply for licenses to teach the new system.

Are we heading towards the end of the traditional Thanaweya Amma? “All indications point to the inevitable end of Egypt’s Thanaweya Amma,” Allam told us, noting that it has caused stress for Egyptian families for years. Interest in Thanaweya Amma has been declining in both public and private schools, he added.

Reducing financial and administrative burdens on private schools: Private schools support the new system, as it allows them to restructure their administrative and operational costs, a source at a private school, who asked not to be named, told EnterpriseAM. The cost of running educational operations in the new baccalaureate system is relatively lower than under the Thanaweya Amma, especially since most parents have chosen the baccalaureate for its easier structure compared to the alternative system. If the new system succeeds, it will help raise the standards of private schools by improving staff competence in core subjects, which in turn will enhance the overall quality of education, the source added.

REMEMBER- The baccalaureate system includes four main study tracks: engineering and computer science, medicine and life sciences, arts and humanities, business and economics. Students are also allowed to study additional subjects at any level if they wish to pursue multiple tracks after completing their primary specialization.

DIVE DEEPER- We covered the ins and outs of the new system in a Blackboard published earlier this year.

Your top education stories for the week:

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  • Onsi Sawiris School of Business’ CEMS master's in international management now ranks fourth globally, up six places from last year, with a score of 92.7.
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