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Wednesday, 2 Aug 2023

What We're Tracking Today
Economy
M&a Watch
M&a Watch
Debt Watch
Egyptian Exchange
Capital Markets
Moves
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Egypt In The News
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar

Net foreign assets deficit widens to most on record in June

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Today at a glance

1

Economy

Net foreign assets deficit widens to most on record in June.
2

WELL, SORT OF

The blackout schedules are in effect
3

M&A WATCH

Beltone wants to acquire microlender Cash -report.
4

M&A WATCH

SFE not considering Misr Pharmacies stake.
5

DEBT WATCH

Edita + Al Baraka Bank in line for loans from IFC.
6

Egyptian Exchange

HSBC sees consumer stocks as an “attractive sector in a challenged market.”
7

Also on our Radar

Calls for debt ceiling at the National Dialogue as government borrowing surges.
8

Moves

National Paints Holding shakes up Pachin board following takeover.
9

PLANET FINANCE

Economists expect the Fed to pause rate hikes when it meets next month.
10

HARDHAT

Real estate developers are pushing forward with projects despite cost constraints.

Wednesday, 2 Aug 2023

What We're Tracking Today
Economy
M&a Watch
M&a Watch
Debt Watch
Egyptian Exchange
Capital Markets
Moves
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Egypt In The News
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt receives first emergency shipment of mazut amid power crisis

Good morning, wonderful people, and happy Wednesday. The ongoing power crisis is top of mind for us this morning as we contemplate when to take the elevator or the stairs at home and at work. Broadly speaking, though, things have been better in the past 48 hours than they were in the two days before that.

It’s Day 2 of the nationwide blackout schedule and it’s safe to say there have been a few teething problems: The first day of the government’s new system for organizing the ongoing rolling blackouts didn’t appear to go plan, according to what Lamees El Hadidi reported on the airwaves last night. Only a few areas around the country saw blackouts take place on schedule, with some reporting unexpected power cuts, others saying the blackouts lasted longer than an hour, and others still having had no cuts at all. Head to our talk show section below, for more.

GOOD NEWS- Our first shipment of mazut has arrived: The Electricity Ministry on Sunday received 35k tons of imported mazut to help fire the national electricity grid, a source at the ministry told us yesterday. That shipment has, together with a parcel of power-saving measures, allowed the Madbouly government to dial-down power cuts, our source said. The news was first picked up by Al Mal.

Remember: The shipment is the first of the government’s planned imports of the heavy oil so that it can ramp-up generation capacity to meet spiking demand. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said last week that the government would spend USD 250-300 mn by the end of August on importing new supplies of mazut as part of a group of measures aimed at ending the power crisis. The state had stopped importing the heavy oil in March thinking that it could rely on local production during the summer and not anticipating the prolonged heat wave seen over the past weeks.

Gulf oil coming? The government has contracted with an unspecified Gulf country to source more supplies of mazut, according to Al Mal’s sources.

PSA #1- The mercury will peak at 37℃ during the day in the nation’s capital, dropping to 25℃ overnight, the Egyptian Meteorological Authority said yesterday . The 14-day forecast on our favourite weather app has the mercury at or above 40°C every day from tomorrow.

PSA #2- New government app aims to attract foreign investors: Cabinet has launched an English-language mobile app to showcase government efforts to improve the business environment and attract foreign investment, according to a ca binet statement yesterday. The app includes a guide to the Golden License system, as well as a section listing economic indicators, including growth rates, employment, and inflation. Get it here: iOS | Android.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

PMI: S&P Global will publish its purchasing managers’ index for Egypt tomorrow. The non-oil private sector contracted at its slowest rate in 22 months in June amid signs at the time that inflationary pressures could be easing.

Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt is meeting tomorrow to discuss interest rates. All seven analysts and economists we spoke to think the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will keep rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting; some of those polled expect a a devaluation later this year. A Reuters poll also forecasts rates to remain unchanged.

National Dialogue: Participants at the National Dialogue will discuss a draft law establishing a new council for education and training and post-divorce issues.

IT’S A NEW MONTH: Other news triggers triggers to watch out for over the coming days:

  • Foreign reserves: The central bank will publish July’s foreign reserves figures at the end of this week or the beginning of the next. FX reserves continued to inch up in June, reaching USD 34.81 bn.
  • Inflation: Capmas and the CBE will publish inflation figures for July on 10 August. Annual urban inflation hit a record high in June as the impact of multiple devaluations continued to feed through into the economy.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

There are two stories dominating the conversation in the Western press this morning:

#1- Donald Trump indicted (again): Agent Orange has been indicted for the third time in four months in connection with his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The former president faces four charges including conspiracy to defraud the US, obstructing an official proceeding, and conspiring against the rights of voters.

Don’t expect this to make a difference to the polls: Trump’s overwhelming lead in the Republican primary polls has only grown with each indictment, and currently holds a huge 36-point l ead over faltering Trump Lite candidate Ron DeSantis. ( Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | New York Times | Washington Post | Wall Street Journal | CNBC)

#2- The US just lost an A: Fitch downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from A AA to AA+ yesterday, citing expectations for fiscal pressure over the coming three years and the repeated high-stakes congressional battles over raising the debt ceiling. ( Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Washington Post | Wall Street Journal | CNBC)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDARS- The Enterprise Finance Forum is taking place on 18-19 September at the St. Regis Hotel in Cairo. This flagship forum is the latest in our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings that allow senior members of our community to openly and frankly discuss critical issues in key sectors of the economy.

TAP OR CLICK HERE if you want to express interest in attending. We’ll be sending out the first batch of invitations soon.

Do you want to become a commercial partner? Ping a note to Moustafa Taalab, our head of commercial, or fill out this form and we’ll be in touch.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: A new report says that private-sector real estate developers were working on residential and mixed-use projects worth c. USD 309 bn in 1Q 2023.

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2

Economy

Egypt’s net foreign assets position deteriorates in June

Net foreign liabilities widened in June, says CBE: Egypt’s net foreign liabilities hit a new high in June amid th e country’s continuing FX shortage, central bank figures published this week show. The deficit in net foreign assets widened to negative USD 27.1 bn during the month from negative USD 24.4 bn in May, according to our math .

The decline in net foreign assets was driven by widening net liabilities in the banking system, which increased to USD 17.1 bn from USD 14.5 bn in May. Net foreign liabilities in the central bank remained almost unchanged.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Under the ongoing IMF program, the Central Bank of Egypt is required to consult with the Fund should the banks’ NFA deficit widen by USD 2 bn in a three-month period. NFAs declined b y almost USD 1.8 bn in the three months to June, according to our math .

State banks are trying to attract new FX inflows: Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt last week launched two new USD-denominated certificates of deposit, offering high interest rates and favorable payout terms in return for FX deposits.

Remember: Egypt has been suffering a prolonged FX crunch triggered by the global shock caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine and rising interest rates. The EGP has lost almost half of its value against the greenback since March 2022, fuelling a resurgent parallel currency market where the EGP is currently trading at a around an 18 % discount to the official rate, placing further pressure on FX liquidity in the banking system.

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3

M&A WATCH

Beltone wants to acquire microlender Cash -Al Borsa

Beltone reportedly wants this Minya-HQ’d microlender: The micro finance provider being targeted for acquisition by Beltone Financial has been named as Minya-based Cash by Al Borsa. The outlet said yesterday that it had talked to sources close to the transaction about Beltone’s plans. Beltone said it had signed an MoU to acquire a local microfinance firm in a bourse filing on Monday, without disclosing the identity of the target.

Mum’s the word:Beltone did not respond to our request for comment when reached out yesterday. Cash declined to comment on the matter.

The waiting game: Beltone is waiting for regulators to give the go-ahead to pursue th e acquisition before it starts due diligence, according to Al Borsa’s sources. Due diligence is expected to take around two months, they added.

Looking outside the nation’s capital is a smart move: The market as a whole remains under-served as we move toward greater and greater financial inclusion, but most players put the majority of their emphasis on the twin population centers of Cairo and Alexandria. A move into other governorates is a good strategy.

No moves for a digital banking license — yet: Beltone has not taken any legal steps towards applying for a license to set up a digital bank, it said yesterday in an EGX disclosure (pdf). The statement came in response to the Al Borsa article, which reported that the company is considering applying to the central bank for a license.

Remember: The CBE recently published new licensing rules for digital banks, prompting a number of banks and non-bank lenders to announce their intentions to apply. Market expectation is that Banque Misr’s MDI will be first to market with a challenger bank.

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4

M&A WATCH

SFE not considering Misr Pharmacies stake contrary to local media reports

SFE not interested in Misr Pharmacies: T he Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SF E) is not currently involved in any discussions with the owners of Misr Pharmacies to acquire a stake in the company, a senior official close to the SFE told Enterprise yesterday. Lo cal me dia reported that the fund was in discussions with Misr Pharmacies’ owners to obtain a stake in the firm.

Misr Pharmacies’ owners are looking to restructure the company to improve sales following a difficult period caused by the challenging economic conditions, local media reported. The company has been under financial pressure due to declining sales though conditions have begun to improve since March, according to the newspaper.

The SFE likes pharma: Private equity firm B Investments and the SFE earlier this year unveiled plans to invest in Egypt’s healthcare and pharma industries under two agreements that could channel more than EGP 2 bn into the sector. The two parties set up a pharma logistics and distribution firm, EZ International, this year in partnership with leading pharma chain El Ezaby Pharmacy, which the SFE acquired a 49% stake in at the beginning of May. B Investments and EGX-listed MM Group (MTI) have together invested some EGP 505 mn in the company.

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5

DEBT WATCH

Edita + Al Baraka Bank in line for loans from IFC

IFC could provide financial support to more Egyptian companies: The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is considering extending loans to Al Baraka Bank and Edita, according to the lender’s website.

#1- Al Baraka Bank could get a USD 55 mn IFC loan: The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is considering loaning USD 55 mn to Al Baraka Bank Egypt for on-lending to local and women-owned micro, small and medium size enterprises. The IFC’s board was expected to take a decision on the loan on Monday but a source at Al Baraka told us yesterday that it is still being discussed between the two sides.

The breakdown: The financing package includes a one-year USD 50 mn loan which can be renewed for two additional years, and a USD 5 mn loan under the IFC’s Trade Finance Facility.

#2-Edita could borrow USD 30 mn: The IFC could lend up to USD 30 mn to EGX-listed snackmaker Edita Food Industries to support its working capital and fund fresh capex. The board is set to meet on 31 August to discuss the loan.

The breakdown:The USD 30 mn loan would mobilize up to USD 15 mn to Edita Food Industries, Edita Participation Cyprus and Edita Trade and Distribution to support the groups capex requirements in Egypt and Morocco, working capital requirements and potential expansion in Africa and the Middle East regions, according to the IFC.

Remember: Edita previously said that it wants to more than double its capex this year, with plans to invest EGP 800 mn up from EGP 353.6 mn in 2022.

A job-maker: The IFC’s facility to Edita is expected to support over 7k jobs in Egypt and create 400 new positions in Edita’s production and supply chain, the lender said. The loan will also help the company withstand the impact of the ongoing FX shortage and inflation.

Remember: The IFC has been busy in Egypt recently, last month lending CIB USD 250 mn to support its working capital and finance green projects and agreeing a USD 50 mn sharia-compliant facility with Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Egypt.

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6

Egyptian Exchange

Here’s what HSBC thinks about the EGX’s top five consumer stocks

Consumer is “an attractive sector in a challenged market.”Soaring inflation and successive devaluations of the EGP in recent months has triggered a wave of uncertainty among investors in Egyptian stocks. HSBC has updated its outlook for five EGX-listed companies in the consumer sector in a report by Nicholas Paton and Anup Kataria dated 28 July.

The companies: Cheesemaker Domty, Edita Food Industries, GB Corp — formerly known as GB Auto — dairy company Juhayna, and carpet maker Oriental Weavers.

Paton and Kataria are downgrading Juhayna to hold — and think GB Corp has the most upside to their current target price.

REMEMBER- Inflation accelerated at a record pace in June as the impact of multiple currency devaluations combined with higher seasonal demand to send food prices soaring. Annual urban rate of inflation rose to 35.7% y-o-y during the month.

HSBC is expecting a solid 2Q earnings season for consumer firms: “We see profit growth across companies mainly aided by the price increases with the trailing effect of low cost inventory,” the bank said. Look for a margin squeeze in 3Q, “followed by improvement in 4Q as price increases take effect.”

The backdrop could be better: “The past four years have seen a deterioration in investor interest in Egypt, with concerns on currency inflexibility, the creeping influence of the state, and lack of progress on reform,” the bank said.

Consumer stocks are attractively priced right now if you’re comfortable with the FX overhang: HSBC notes that while the EGX has “rallied 20% in USD [terms]” from this year’s lows, consumer stocks are trading at PE of 8.9x against a five-year average of 10x — meaning “ overall valuations are close to all-time lows,” the analysts write.

THE BREAKDOWN-

#1- Domty: The cheesemaker is now looking at an HSBC target price of EGP 11.30 from a former target of EGP 7.60, implying 33% upside on the current price. The 2023 revenue forecast is up 17% on HSBC’s prior forecast to EGP 7.2 bn and the 2024 revenue forecast up 22% to EGP 8.3 bn, “due to price hikes across segments.”

Downside risks: Patton and Kataria say any delays in receivables would stretch Domty’s working capital, adding that entry into new segments could hit margins.

#2- Edita: The company sees its target price increase to EGP 23.70 a piece from EGP 17.50, suggesting some 26% upside to current price. HSBC’s 2023 revenue forecast for Edita is up 30% to EGP 11.3 bn, while the 2024 revenue forecast is up 16% to EGP 11.6 bn. “Price hikes across segments” will drive the growth.

Downside risks: The bank sees worse-than-expected price inflation and entry to new segments impacting margins as potential risks.

#3- Juhayna: The company is now looking at a target price of EGP 13.20 from EGP 9.80, a 0.5% upside, according to the bank. HSBC revised its revenue forecast for Juhayna to EGP 13.9 bn this year, up 7% from previous forecasts as the company pivoted to “focus on exports of concentrates which had much higher margins.”

Downside risks: HSBC sees raw material price volatility as a risk, as well as an increase in competition.

#4- Oriental Weavers: The bank now sees the carpetmaker’s target price rising to EGP 18.30 from a previous EGP 13.10, a 25% upside to current prices. Revenue forecast is up 18% to EGP 17.4 bn this year, and up 17% in 2024 to EGP 18.2 bn, “due to the higher than expected EGP depreciation.”

Downside risks: The bank believes that tougher competition, an increase in raw material prices, or export delays could hurt the company’s performance.

#5- GB Corp: The bank sees the company’s target price increasing to EGP 9.40 a piece from its previous EGP 8.00, suggesting 46% upside from the current share price . GB Corp stands out as the only company for which the bank has trimmed its revenue forecast. HSBC now sees the company recording revenues of EGP 20.9 bn this year, down 34% from previous forecasts, and revenues of EGP 31.6 bn in 2024, down 12%. “We lower our volume estimates for 2023 for Egypt passenger cars and two wheelers due to supply shortages due to FX availability and import restriction.”

Downside risks: The bank cites a potential EGP devaluation as one of the downside risks of investing in GB Corp, seeing as it would result in price hikes, hurting sales in the process. It also zeroes in on supply and demand risks.

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7

Capital markets

EFG Hermes tops EGX brokerage league table in July

EFG Hermes continues to dominate EGX brokerage market: EFG Hermes continued to lead the EGX brokerage league table in July with a market share of 27.9%, according to EGX figures ( pdf ). CI Capital came in second (6.1%), while Mubasher Securities (4.0%), Beltone Securities (3.9%), and Thndr Securities (3.8%) made up the top five.

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8

Moves

National Paints Holding shakes up Pachin board following takeover

Pachin’s new owners shake up its board: National Paints Holding (NPH) has shak en up the leadership of Pachin, less than a week after it completed its takeover of the EGX-listed paintmaker, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The Dubai-based firm has appointed Ibrahim Faeq El Sayegh as non-executive chairman in place of Mohamed El Saeed while Samer Salim El Sayegh will assume the role of executive vice chairman. Ibrahim and Samer are descendants of Faiq Ibrahim Sayegh, who founded NPH’s parent company Sayegh Group. The board reshuffle will also see Mohie El Din El Shouny taking over from Amr Abdallah as Pachin’s managing director.

Remember: NPH recently acquired 100% of the formerly state-owned Pachin, purchasing 80% of its shares in a mandatory tender offer in May and the remaining 20% last month.

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9

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Blackout schedules are in effect (well, sort of)

It’s only the second day of running the cabinet’s blackout schedules and the first day seems to have been a bit chaotic according to the descriptions of several of the nation’s talking heads last night, who urged the government to stick to its announced schedules. Meanwhile, Kelma Akhira host Lamees El Hadidi gave some airtime to tomorrow’s MPC meeting, while other shows covered Trade Minister Ahmed Samir’s visit to Turkey and the latest weather forecast.

But first: A change to our scheduled programming…

Lamees is off, but Al Forsa is on: El Hadidi announced last night that Kelma Akhira will be taking a month off the air while she heads for vacation. Her startup competition, Al Forsa, will continue to air as scheduled every Wednesday ( here, and here).

BLACKOUT CHAOS-

Blackout schedules are in effect: The government started operating its national electricit y grid according to the schedule announced on Monday, according to a cabinet statement.

But it doesn’t look like they’re being followed: “Very few” areas around the country experienced blackouts according to the pre-announced schedules yesterday, El Hadidi told her viewers. S ome people reported that the timings were different to those laid about by the cabinet on Monday, and others said they lasted longer than the hour promised by ministers. Other areas reported having no blackouts at all, despite being listed in the documents ( watch, runtime, 3:41).

This really didn’t go according to plan: El Barageel area saw a one-off four-hour-long blackout, residents in Aswan had their power cut for one hour every four hours, Helwan three hours at intervals, and Mohandiseen was treated to an unscheduled hour without the lights. El Hadidi urged the government to abide by the schedule for our safety and the safety of our household appliances ( watch, runtime: 3:58). Ala Mas’ouleety ( watch, runtime: 2:44) and Al Hayah Al Youm ( watch, runtime: 2:44) also had coverage.

Can we add three more governorates to the exceptions list? El Hadidi urged the cabinet to add Alexandria, Balteem, and Ras El Bar governorates to the list of governorates exempted from blackouts, explaining that the majority of locals spend their summer breaks at these governorates. The government has spared the Matrouh, Red Sea and South Sinai governorates from blackouts on the basis that they’re important to the country’s tourism sector.

Spare a thought for the people manning the government’s complaints hotline: Masa’a DMC’s Ramy Radwan tested the 121 hotline for complaints about the blackout schedules, and reminded viewers that the Electricity Ministry didn’t rule out the possibility of blackouts lasting longer than one hour due to technical issues ( watch, runtime: 8:05).

INTEREST RATES-

THE PROBLEM- Interest rate or exchange rate: The Central Bank of Egypt is unlikely to go for a rate hike in this Thursday’s meeting as it would do little to address inflation and bring in portfolio flows, given the presence of a parallel market and the deeply negative real interest rates, banking expert Tarek Metwally told El Hadidi ( watch, runtime: 5:14). Metwally explained that only after crushing the parallel market will rate hikes become a more effective tool.

TURKEY TRADE MEETING-

Ankara x Cairo: Trade Minister Ahmed Samir is in Turkey to discuss bilateral trade with his Turkish counterpart, more on this in the news well below. Ala Mas’ouleety ( watch, runtime: 3:32) and Masa’a DMC ( watch, runtime: 1:47) had coverage.

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10

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Rolling blackouts get ink in the foreign press

It’s a slow morning in the foreign press: The sole article of note comes from Bloomberg, which is covering the blackouts and how the government is trying to address the situation.

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11

Also on our Radar

Mienta to invest USD 5 mn in new factory in SCZone. PLUS: News from the National Dialogue, Dragon Oil, Heliopolis Housing + BanknBox

MANUFACTURING-

Mienta to expand manufacturing in Egypt: French home appliance manufacturer Mienta will invest USD 5 mn to establish a factory in the Elsewedy industrial zone in Ain Sokhna, the company (pdf) and the Suez Canal Economic Zone said yesterday after signing a land allocation agreement. The factory is expected to start operations next year and will produce 650k appliances by 2025. This is the company’s third factory in Egypt.

FINTECH-

BanknBox to set up shop in Egypt as it looks to regional expansion: Digital banking and third-party processing platform BanknBox plans to invest USD 10 mn to establish a regional headquarters in Maadi as it looks to expand in the Middle East region and Africa, the company’s CEO and co-founder Bassem Mahmoud told Enterprise. BanknBox is currently in the process of finalizing agreements to provide services to five fintech companies and banks in Egypt, he said, declining to provide the names of the entities.

A CBE sweetener: Mahmoud said that BanknBox chose to HQ in Egypt after the Central Bank of Egypt published new licensing rules for digital banks. BanknBox already provides services to digital and traditional banks across the Middle East region including Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, and Libya.

NATIONAL DIALOGUE-

Calls for debt ceiling as national debt surges: Economists and MPs urged the government to do more to rein in external borrowing at the National Dialogue yesterday, calling for an end to financing national projects with foreign loans and the introduction of a cap on national debt.

Remember: External debt reached a new record high of USD 165.4 bn in 3Q 2022-23, climbing 1.5% from the previous quarter, while local debt has reached EGP 5 tn. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to have risen to 96% during the previous fiscal year from 87.6% the year before on the back of the weaker EGP and rising interest rates.

What they said: Abdel Fattah El Gebaly, assistant rapporteur of the dialogue's budget committee, said that the Unified Finance Law should be amended to introduce a ceiling on foreign borrowing, while several participants — including Mostafa Salam, deputy chair of the House Budget Committee, and dialogue board member Gouda Abdel Khalek — called for a moratorium on the use of FX loans to finance projects.

COMMODITIES-

GASC announces fresh wheat tender: The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has launched an international tender for an undisclosed amount of wheat on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, Al Borsa reports. The shipment will take place between 1 September and 25 October and payment will be funded by the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation.

ENERGY-

Dragon Oil to up Egypt production by a quarter: Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) subsidiary Dragon Oil expects to increase oil output in Egypt by 27% to 70k barrels a day in October when it begins production at the North Safa oil field in the Gulf of Suez, reports Asharq Busine ss, citing a government official. The company will start production within the next two months at a rate of 15k barrels per day. The field has confirmed reserves of around 170 mn barrels. Dragon Oil’s discovery of the field in early 2022 was one of the largest made in the area over the past two decades.

REAL ESTATE-

Heliopolis Housing has a partner for Heliopark: Heliopolis Housing and Development’s (HHD) board of directors approved an offer from an unnamed real estate company to co-develop the Heliopark project, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf) yesterday. It also greenlit a three-year contract with Matrix Company to manage and operate Merryland Park, worth around EGP 17.5 mn.

Remember: HHD received an offer last month from an undisclosed developer to co-develop the 77k-feddan project. The state-owned company put the New Cairo project back out to tender after scrapping a partnership agreement with Mountain View earlier this year.

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12

PLANET FINANCE

Manufacturing is slowing across the world

Manufacturing data out yesterday is pointing to a global slowdown: Glob al manufacturing activity continued to expand at its weakest pace since the height of the covid-19 pandemic in July amid a sharp contraction in the eurozone and factories in China going into reverse, Reuters reports. Purchasing managers’ index figures out yesterday showed euro area factory activity sinking to its strongest downturn since May 2020 while data out of Asia showed the Japanese, South Korean, Taiwanese and Vietnamese manufacturing sectors all contracting. Factories in China declined for the first time since April, missing expectations for slight growth during the month.

Fed to press pause on rate hikes next month, say economists: Falling inflation, easing consumer spending and weakening wage growth mean that the US Federal Reserve can afford to take its foot off the gas at its next policy meeting in September and leave interest rates unchanged, economists tell Bloomberg. “I suspect the data will be mild enough to meet with the Fed’s approval,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal. “Our core view is that the Fed has done enough, with short-term rates now solidly in positive real terrain, core inflation beginning to come down, and the labor market softening around the edges.”

Remember: The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 2001 last month despite a softer-than-expected June inflation print.

Yes, but: Much will depend on this month’s inflation and jobs data. Fed chair Jerome Powell has not ruled out further rate hikes in the coming months should data point to a revival of inflationary pressures.

A “soft landing” in the US isn’t guaranteed: Markets may be rebounding in optimism that the Fed’s tightening cycle has avoided triggering a downturn in the US economy, but a sharp drop in excess savings triggered by higher borrowing costs and inflation may yet provoke a drop-off in business spending and rising unemployment, according to Reuters. Excess savings in the US have fallen more than 75% over the past two years, a trend that is also taking place in Europe and the UK. “As soon as [domestic consumption] starts to fall apart these economies can become very, very fragile very quickly,” one asset manager told the newswire.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

  • KSA is getting ready for its maiden sovereign sukuk sale: The Public Investment Fund has hired HSBC, Standard Chartered, Emirates NBD and Al Rajhi Capital to manage its debut sovereign sukuk issuance, according to people familiar with the matter. ( Bloomberg)
  • Dubai hands first full crypto license to Nomura subsidiary: Dubai awarded a full cryptocurrency license to Laser Digital Middle East, a subsidiary of Japanese financial giant Nomura. This allows the company to offer virtual asset brokerage and investment management services in the local market. ( Bloomberg)
  • Uber delivers first-ever operating profit: Ride-hailing app Uber reported its first-ever operating profit of USD 326 mn in 2Q 2023. This was overshadowed by a slowdown in revenue growth, which saw its share price fall 5.7% during trading yesterday. ( Bloomberg | Uber)
  • The UK housing market is going into reverse: UK house prices declined at their fastest annual rate in 14 years in July as rising interest rates weighed on the market. ( Nationwide)

EGX30

17,514

-0.5% (YTD: +20.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.83

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

18.25% deposit

19.25% lending

Tadawul

11,636

-0.5% (YTD: +11.1%)

ADX

9,779

-0.1% (YTD: -4.2%)

DFM

4,077

+0.4% (YTD: +22.2%)

S&P 500

4,577

-0.3% (YTD: +19.2%)

FTS E 100

7,666

-0.4% (YTD: +2.9%)

Eu r o Stoxx 50

4,408

-1.4% (YTD: +16.2%)

Brent crude

USD 85.72

+0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.58

-2.2%

Gold

USD 1,981.80

-1.4%

BTC

USD 29,217

+0.1% (YTD: +76.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.55 bn (85.6% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net buyers. The index is up 19.97% YTD.

In the green: Beltone Financial Holding (+9.9%), Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+2.8%) and Juhayna (+1.4%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-6.1%), Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (-5.3%) and TMG Holding (-3.5%).

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Our weekly deep-dive into infrastructure in Egypt.

Published every Wednesday in EnterpriseAM.

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13

HARDHAT

Real estate developers are pushing forward with projects despite cost constraints

Pulse check on Egypt’s real estate sector: Residential and mixed-use real estate projects from private sector developers worth c. USD 309 bn were under construction across Egypt in 1Q 2023, accounting for around half of all real estate projects and 83% of real estate investments, according to a recent report from real estate intelligence firm Property Finder (pdf). These projects are primarily concentrated in Cairo, followed by Giza, Alexandria, and Matrouh. Along with the increasing supply, there’s been an uptick in real estate buying demand in the market as buyers look to invest in an appreciating asset, the report suggests.

REMEMBER- Real estate players in Egypt have been having a rough time as of late, with plenty of macroeconomic headwinds over the past couple of years, particularly following the start of the war in Ukraine. Infrastructure companies have been squeezed by rising raw and building material prices, higher borrowing costs, and the devaluation of the EGP. In 2022, some 10-20% of real estate developers reported halting their construction projects at some point during the year due to fiscal and logistical pressures, while some indicated they sold off projects before starting construction.

The geographical distribution of projects: Projects under construction by private sector development span 21 of the country’s governorates, with Cairo accounting for 46% of the total number of projects and 59% of the total value. Giza comes in second place, accounting for 16% of projects by volume and 13% by value. Around 12% of projects under construction during the quarter are in Alexandria, but the governorate falls behind Suez and Matrouh in terms of the value of these projects, with Suez taking up 10% of total project value and Matrouh accounting for c.7%.

Most of these projects are well on their way to completion: The completion rates followed a different ranking during the quarter, although Cairo remains in the lead with 61% of projects in the governorate more than halfway complete, including 14% that are over 90% complete. Matrouh comes in second place, with 55% of projects in the governorate more than halfway complete, including 12% that are more than 90% finished. Alexandria follows with 37% of projects hitting or surpassing the 50% completion mark, while 33% of projects in Giza are at least halfway finished. Across the country, c.52% of projects are more than 50% complete.

…and delivery rates are on the rise: Over the course of 1Q 2023, private sector developers delivered a total of 17 projects worth a combined USD 1.3 bn, according to the report. That’s 31% higher than the number of projects delivered in 1Q 2022, while the value of deliveries is up 32% y-o-y, the report says. The majority of delivered projects were in Cairo (24%) and Giza (18%). In Cairo, “Palm Hills Developments emerged as a prominent developer, completing 662 buildings in the Palm Hills-Fera New Cairo project,” in which the developer invested USD 640 mn. Our friends at CIRA also completed their USD 200 mn Katameya Dunes Compound during the quarter, the report notes.

Who’s pouring in fresh investments? The number of newly launched projects dropped 77% y-o-y in 1Q 2023, largely on the back of rising construction costs, the report notes. A total of nine new projects worth a combined USD 1 bn were kicked off across four governorates during the quarter, with the majority again concentrated in Cairo (44%) and Giza (33%). Property Finder estimates that 15 new projects were launched during 2Q 2023. Naia Development — formerly known as Jumeirah Egypt Real Estate Investment — accounted for the highest investment value during the quarter, with the developer investing c.USD 370 mn. Times Development earmarked USD 252 mn for two new projects in New Cairo and El Rehab, while El Attal Holding committed USD 114 mn for new projects. Taj Misr Developments, Raaed Developments, Adva Developments, the Waterway Developments, and Style Home Real Estate Developments also invested in new projects in 1Q 2023.

Prices are also on the up and up: Across the country, the average price of apartments for sale rose 30% y-o-y during the quarter, according to Property Finder’s data. The report attributes the jump to the EGP devaluation and rising construction costs, which have eaten away at developers’ margins. “Additionally, there has been a notable trend of buyers rushing to purchase real estate, in an attempt to hedge against the drop in the value of the local currency against the USD,” the report says. The average one-bedroom apartment was priced at EGP 1.25 mn in 1Q 2023, while two-bedroom apartments averaged at EGP 1.6 mn, and three-bedroom apartments were selling at, on average, EGP 2.55 mn. Villas also saw a 25% y-o-y uptick in asking price, with average prices ranging from EGP 6.4 mn for a three-bedroom villa to EGP 12 mn for a five-bedroom.

Where are people buying? Prospective buyers preferred to purchase apartments in New Cairo, 6th of October, Hay El Maadi, Hay Sharq, and Nasr City, while those looking to buy villas gravitated more towards Madinaty, the new administrative capital, and Hurghada, along with New Cairo and 6th of October.

Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • Damietta Port Authority will launch a tender by the end of September for a 10-year contract to exploit a 6.5k square-meter area for handling eco-friendly dry bulk goods.
  • An update on the Sokhna port redevelopment: The first phase of the development of the Ain Sokhna port will wrap before the end of 2023.
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CALENDAR

JULY

Late July-14 August: 2Q2023 earnings season.

AUGUST

August: Hassan Allam Utilities + Agility to open Yanmu East logistics park.

3 August (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

3 August (Thursday): National Dialogue.

10 August (Thursday): Shalateen Mineral Resources gold mining tender closes.

16-17 August (Wednesday-Thursday): Finance Ministry to pay out the third batch of the sixth phase of the export subsidies.

22-24 August (Tuesday-Thursday): BRICS summit, Johannesburg, South Africa.

SEPTEMBER

September: Sustainable Debt Coalition Initiative agreed at COP27 to launch.

September: IDH to open first branch in Saudi Arabia.

September: The Egypt-Germany trade and investment joint conference in Cairo.

September: JETRO’s second delegation arrives in Cairo.

1 September (Friday): Application deadline for the Smart Green Projects initiative.

9-10 September (Saturday-Sunday): G20 summit, New Delhi, India.

10-12 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East, Sahara.

13-14 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Hydrogen Egypt Summit, Nile Ritz Carlton, Cairo.

15 September (Friday): IMF to review USD 3 bn program.

15 September (Friday): Deadline for FX bureaus to comply with new capital requirements.

17-18 September (Sunday-Monday): Arab Security Conference and Exhibition, Nile Ritz Carlton, Cairo.

17-19 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Sharm Rendezvous, Rixos Premium Seagate, Sharm ElSheikh.

18-19 September (Monday-Tuesday): Enterprise Finance Forum, St. Regis Hotel, Cairo.

19-20 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

21 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25 September (Monday): Nasdaq deadline for Swvl Holdings Corp to increase its market value of publicly held shares to a minimum of USD 15 mn.

25-26 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt to host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s annual board meeting, Sharm El Sheikh.

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28-29 September (Thursday-Friday): Medical Tourism Conference, Sharm ElSheikh.

30 September (Saturday): The start of the new academic year for Egyptian universities.

OCTOBER

October: Deadline for ins. providers to link their databases with the FRA.

2-4 October (Monday-Wednesday): Sharm Rendezvous - Ins. Market, Rixos Premium Seagate, Sharm ElSheikh.

2-5 October (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC 2023, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

9 October (Monday): The Narrative PR Summit, Somabay Red Sea.

9-11 October (Monday-Wednesday): Arabs Savings and Financial Literacy Conference, Four Seasons Hotel.

13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October - 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network (GBSN), American University of Cairo.

31 October - 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

Summer 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

1H 2023: GAFI roadshow set to launch to drum up foreign investment for golden licenses

1H 2023: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank intends to launch a digital consumer finance company

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to initiate operations.

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