We can see the beginning of the end for covid in Egypt, but it may not be until mid-2021:. That’s according to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, who suggested yesterday that negotiations to secure a stock of vaccine could drag on for a few months to come. This came during a speech on the coronavirus in which he sought to reassure that the nation’s medical experts are doing all they can to contain the virus.

You can catch El Sisi’s full speech here (watch, runtime: 12:01) if you don’t mind Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa. The president’s statement got plenty of airtime last night on Kelma Akhira (watch: runtime: 1:40), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 12:04), Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 13:50), and Yahduth Fi Misr (watch, runtime: 2:39).

We can expect a lot more clarity in about two weeks’ time on what vaccines we’re buying and which one we might be manufacturing here. Presidential spokesperson Bassem Rady told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi that the Health Ministry’s covid-19 committee will complete a study of the available vaccines within the next 10 days (watch, runtime: 10:14).

The government’s message in the meantime is clear: Vaccines are in the future. Wearing your damn mask and social distancing? That’s NOW, Higher Education Minister Khaled Abd El Ghaffar told Masaa DMC’s Ramy Radwa. The minister says 38% of beds are now occupied in intensive care units at teaching hospitals and that about 8% of hospitalized covid patients are on ventilators. He said that the rates are so far not alarming and that the healthcare system withstood the shock of the first wave (watch, runtime: 17:25).

So, what vaccines might we be buying — or manufacturing?

Health Ministry officials have previously suggested we’ve locked in about 50% of our vaccine needs, including from AstraZeneca (easily stored, 90% effective) and Pfizer (95% success rate). We’re also looking to manufacture a vaccine in Egypt — state-affiliated Vacsera, one of Africa’s top vaccine makers, is preparing a plant now.

Egypt seems to have cooled on the Chinese vaccine that was running clinical trials here. The company behind the shot has said results were “better than expected” but has yet to release data on its effectiveness. The Chinese shot was one policymakers had hoped could be manufactured here.

That leaves the question of Russia’s Sputnik V, which served up more great vaccine new yesterday: It is more than 95% effective, the Russian sovereign wealth fund said, reporting second interim analysis of the late-stage trial. The ultra-high efficacy rate was recorded in patients 42 days’ after the first dose, while a slightly lower success rate of 91.4% was observed 28 days after the dose.

Egypt has reached an agreement to buy an unspecified stock of Sputnik V from Russia, the WSJ notes in passing. Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said in late October that Egypt could manufacture Sputnik V here and local drugmaker Pharco has struck an agreement to distribute up to 25 mn doses, we previously noted.

The Russians are going big on the marketing, taking pains to point out that the shot will be at least 2x cheaper than the mRNA vaccines being developed by Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna. The AstraZeneca-Oxford shot will be less expensive and will be made available to the developing world on a not-for-profit basis “in perpetuity.”

INVESTMENT WATCH- Big new rail company plans to invest USD 10 bn + tons more rail transport news from Cairo ICT: The Suez Canal Economic Zone and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt signed an agreement yesterday to set up the National Egyptian Company for Railroad Industries (NERIC) — the new company specialized in producing and refurbing locomotives — at the Cairo ICT expo Monday, according to a Planning Ministry statement (pdf). The company is expected to invest USD 10 bn over the next few years, Planning Minister Hala El Said said.

Private sector firms look like they’ll hold the majority of the equity in the new company, but the minority stake to be split by the SCZone and SFE will be preferred shares that give them extra voting rights and a claim to a larger percentage of any profits or gains on exits, El Said suggested to Kelma Akhira's Lamees El Hadidi last night (watch, runtime: 9:09). The minister didn’t specify the extent of the preferred voting rights or the questions on which they might be exercised. The exact ownership breakdown among the private sector firms still isn’t clear but the ministry statement says that Orascom Construction (OC), Samcrete, Hassan Allam Holding and Connect Information Technology will hold stakes, with OC taking a 15% share.

The investments include a EGP 2.2 bn facility that will eventually house three lines: One to upgrade rail engines, one to produce metro cars, and another to produce high-speed, long-distance railcars, Chairman Ahmed Fekry said, according to the local press. The production lines will have a capacity of 150k pieces of rolling stock per year. The planned investment is part of a plan to modernize Egypt’s ailing railway network and kickstart rail exports to other countries in the region, Fekry added.

Other agreements signed at the expo:

• Setting up a railway signaling control center in the Technical Institute for Rail Technology, under an agreement between the National Railways Authority and the Egyptian arm of French manufacturer Alstom.
• The christening of the New Cairo monorail station One Ninety through an agreement between the National Tunnels Authority and Landmark Developments.
• An MoU between the General Authority for Land and Dry Ports and a consortium of unnamed American and British companies to conduct a feasibility study for the Sohag Dry Port and logistical zone.
• A training and skill transfer agreement between Huawei and Trans IT, which will see the Chinese tech giant provide training to its staff.
• Setting up a railway engineering training academy in Cairo with Bombardier Transportation, to train new local engineering graduates.

OTHER RAILWAY NEWS: Orascom Construction will spend EUR 2 bn on the construction of the two monorail lines for the new administrative capital and Sixth of October, CEO Osama Bishai said at the expo, according to Al Mal. The project entails a 54-km-long monorail system connecting Nasr City with the new administrative capital, and a 42-km line between Sixth of October and Giza. A consortium made up of Bombardier, Orascom Construction, and Arab Contractors signed a 30-year contract for the construction and maintenance of the lines last year. The two lines are expected to cost more than USD 4.6 bn, USD 3 bn of which will be spent on construction and USD 1.67 bn on operating and maintaining the lines for 30 years.

OC, Mitsubishi sign USD 800 mn contract for civil works on Cairo Metro Line 4: A consortium of Orascom Construction and Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi signed a USD 800 mn contract with the Transport Ministry for railway works for the first round of Cairo Metro Line 4, OC said in a press release (pdf). The project will be financed through a JPY-denominated loan from the Japan International Cooperation Agency, which we previously noted is funding the first phase of the new metro line. The OC-Mitsubishi consortium signed the agreement during this week’s TransMea 2020 expo, which is currently underway as part of the Cairo ICT conference.

DEBT WATCH- The debt market is really heating up heading into 2021: Two securitized bond offerings worth a combined EGP 4 bn are going to market before the end of the year, said Khalil El Bawab, the CEO of Banque Misr’s investment arm Misr Capital, which is acting as lead manager on both sales. While he didn’t disclose names of companies, the size of the issuances (EGP 2.5 bn and EGP 1.5 bn) match planned sales by Corplease and Palm Hills Developments that have been slated to take place this year.

Misr Capital has another three securitized bond offerings in its pipeline for next year and at least one sukuk issuance coming up, El Bawab said. Together, its offerings for the rest of 2020 and into 2021 are worth a combined EGP 7 bn, he said. Misr Capital and Sarwa Capital are advising Amer Group’s upcoming EGP 2 bn sukuk offering. The Banque Misr subsidiary was also tapped as lead manager for an expected EGP 1 bn securitized bond sale by AT Lease, which we noted last week was pushed to next year. The company is also working on a potential corporate green bonds sale, El Bawab added without providing details.

Securitized bonds are becoming an increasingly popular means of debt finance: Corplease, Sarwa, Palm Hills, and Raya are some of the private sector firms to sell asset-backed securities to investors this year. Sizes have ranged anywhere from Premium Card’s EGP 182 mn offering to Sarwa’s EGP 1.8 bn issuance in May. The New Urban Communities Authority has been responsible for the largest issuance this year, selling EGP 10 bn of bonds to investors to fund new developments in the new capital and New El Alamein.

OTHER COMPANIES IN THE MARKET FOR DEBT- Leading private education outfit CIRA is mulling a sukuk issuance, the company said in a disclosure (pdf). CIRA did not disclose the expected size of the sale, but ِAl Mal reports that it could be worth EGP 600 mn, according to sources familiar with the matter. The company is currently seeking the necessary permissions from the Financial Regulatory Authority, sources said.

Background: This would be the third issuance of corporate sukuk in Egypt, following Talaat Moustafa Groups’s EGP 2 bn offering in April, and the Sarwa Capital’s upcoming EGP 2.5 bn sale. Amer Group is also said to be in the market for Sharia compliant debt and could complete a sale before the end of the year.

Advisors: EFG Hermes is leading the CIRA issuance, while Zulficar & Partners is acting as legal counsel.

In other debt news, Sarwa Capital is planning to start giving out housing loans to low- and middle-income families under an agreement it recently signed with the state’s Social Housing Mortgage Finance Fund, said Managing Director Said Zater, according to Al Mal.

M&A WATCH- Sawiris’ sports investment company Zed Sports has acquired a majority stake in FC Masr, CEO Ahmed Diab confirmed to Al Mal yesterday, without providing additional details on the transaction. Hapi Journal claimed in September that an agreement had been reached between the two companies, without sourcing its claims.

STARTUP WATCH- Cairo-based sports startup Eksab has raised USD 500k from Africa-focused VC firm 4DXVentures, a companystatement (pdf) said yesterday. This is the company’s second injection of funding in the past 18 months after a seed round last June attracted a six-figure investment from 500 Startups. Eksab is a daily fantasy sports platform allowing users to make predictions about live football games, earning points based on how accurate their predictions are, and being rewarded with prizes.The platform plans to use the latest funding to launch its first paid competitions over the next year and increase its user base, the company said.

Hotel occupancy rates in Cairo nosedived 67% y-o-y so far this year amid the pandemic-induced slump in tourism, according to Colliers International’s MENA Hotels Quarterly review (pdf). Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh’s occupancy rates have also fallen 57% and 55% year-to-date. Alexandria was the least affected of the Egyptian cities, but still saw occupancy rates falling 47% y-o-y. World Tourism Organization figures have shown that tourist arrivals to Egypt dropped 62.3% y-o-y in 1H2020 while tourism receipts plunged 90.4% in 2Q2020 when the sector was brought to a standstill after the government suspended international flights.

The restoration of flights hasn’t been a panacea: Weak occupancy rates continued into the third quarter despite airlines around the world resuming flights to Egypt. Alexandria and Sharm El Sheikh saw slightly better performance from 2Q, posting increases of 5% and 1% respectively, but remained significantly lower than the same quarter last year, Colliers said.

Uber has applied for an operating license under recent legislation governingride-hailing companies, General Manger Ahmed Khalil said in an interview with Masrawy on Tuesday. Under the 2019 legislation, ride-hailing companies pay 25% more tax than other cab drivers, are obliged to hire white cab drivers, and must provide proof that their drivers are paying social insurance, amongst a host of other requirements on tariffs, data protection and service quality. Companies are required to pay EGP 30 mn for a five-year license, while drivers pay EGP 2k for a work permit.

LEGISLATION WATCH- Shipping agencies and customs brokers have won minor concessions from the Finance Ministry after challenging some elements of the recently-ratified Customs Act, Enterprise has learned. Brokers had complained about the strict new insurance requirements in the legislation, which force large companies to deposit EGP 100k and small companies EGP 50k, up from as little as EGP 5k before. The Customs Authority has refused to budge from the figures but according to a Finance Ministry directive obtained by Enterprise the authority will instead allow small firms to pay the amount in equal installments over five years.

Shipping companies will now be allowed to submit their cargo lists 24 hours before shipments arrive in the country, instead of the 48 hours written in the legislation to speed up clearance procedures. The new Customs Act was ratified earlier this month after receiving House approval in August.

The Central Bank of Egypt’s financial inclusion strategy seems to be moving forward after the bank yesterday set up a company to develop tech infrastructure and support digital payments, suggests a local press report. The central bank will hold a 99.9% stake in the Terra Digital Financial Infrastructure Company, and will work alongside the National Payments Council to upgrade the country’s digital infrastructure, the report says without providing further details. CBE Governor Tarek Amer said earlier this week that it is working on a new strategy to further financial inclusion, without providing details. It’s not clear how this will differ from the plan unveiled by the CBE in 2019, which centers on strengthening the bank’s regulatory and supervisory role, raising awareness on financial inclusion, and promoting fintech startups. Policymakers have been pushing financial inclusion for the past several years

MOVES- Global oil and gas company Neptune Energy has appointed Mohamed Mounes Shahat as managing director for Egypt, the company said. The industry veteran, who started his career as an engineer at state-owned Gulf of Suez Petroleum Company, will join Neptune’s Cairo office in December, succeeding Gamal Kassem.