Egypt’s monthly inflation rate fell for a third month in a row after rising by just 1.7% in April compared to March, the slowest pace since October, according to CAPMAS. Annual urban inflation accelerated to 31.5% in April from 30.9% the month before, with food price inflation registering 43.6%. Core inflation decreased marginally to 32.06% in April from 32.25% in March. The annual figures are the highest since June 1986, Reuters says. The continued decline in the monthly rate “indicates that the shocks from the flotation and increase in fuel price have tapered off … Now the inflation rate will behave normally, going up or down depending on seasonal factors, and subject to shocks such as further subsidy cuts … These figures confirm that there is no need to raise interest rates, as the shocks have subsided,” Arqaam Capital economist Reham El Desoki told Bloomberg.
Pharos Holding’s Ramy Oraby said in a research note yesterday (pdf) that three factors could drive inflation higher in the near term after three consecutive months of month-on-month cooling: electricity tariff hikes, the scheduled increase in the value-added tax rate to 14% from 13% at the beginning of July, and another round of fuel price hikes. EFG Hermes says the month’s reading shows the inflationary shock was largely absorbed; it sees inflation decelerating going in 2H FY2017-18 to around the “low teens.”
Related
The easing of bank restrictions on credit card usage abroad is another sign that the foreign exchange problems “have finally been dealt with and started to fade,” Capital Economics’ Jason Tuvey tells Bloomberg. “We’ve seen a sharp increase in foreign-exchange reserves, and there’s been a flow of [USD] that was in the black market moving into the official banking system,” he adds. So far, CIB, Banque Misr, National Bank of Egypt, and HSBC have removed caps on credit card usage abroad. Bloomberg notes, however, that the economic recovery is “far from complete,” citing a BMI research saying reform measures are expected to weigh on economic growth as “rising investment will not be sufficient to offset the negative impact of high inflation on private consumption.” BMI added that while inflation has likely peaked, measures including subsidy cuts will continue to squeeze consumers and businesses.
…Separately, foreign investments in Egyptian government securities rose to EGP 103.6bn as of 9 May, said Sami Khallaf, the head of public debt at the Finance Ministry, according to Reuters.
Related
Production from BP’s Taurus and Libra fields in the West Nile Delta concession began on Wednesday, eight months ahead of schedule. The project also came in under budget,the company said in a statement. The fields, which constitute phase one of the West Nile Delta development, are currently producing more than 700 mn standard cubic feet of sales gas per day and 1,000 barrels per day of condensate, “which is 20% higher than the planned sales gas plateau,” according to BP. The additional capacity is expected to save Egypt an annual USD 1 bn, an emailed statement from the Petroleum Ministry said (pdf). The second phase of the project, which includes the Giza, Fayoum, and Raven fields, is expected to come on stream by 2019, raising the entire development’s production capacity to a daily 1.5 bcf of gas and saving Egypt an annual USD 1.8 bn. The story is getting international attention from Reuters.
Related
Tour operator Thomas Cook has canceled its Sharm El Sheikh holiday bookings for the winter of 2017-18. It has also scrapped its summer 2018 holiday and flight programs, according to The Sun. The company had scheduled five winter flights per week, but scrapped them as a result “of the continued Foreign Office advice against travel to the area, which Thomas Cook had hoped would be overturned by next winter.” Thomas Cook is, instead, increasing its flights to Hurghada and introducing Marsa Alam as a new destination. Other travel companies, including TUI, continue to offer winter holidays for 2017-18 for the time being. A Thomas Cook spokesman said: “Egypt has been very popular this year. We’re expecting more than double the number of UK customers compared with last year, over 150,000 bookings … We put on more flights for the winter season just gone and for this summer to keep up with demand.”
Related
M&A WATCH- The bidding war for NCMP is heating up: Egypt Kuwait Holding (EKH) subsidiary International Financial Investments Company (IFIC) has submitted a bid to acquire Misr Capital Investment’s 42.96% stake in National Company for Maize Products (NCMP), according to a regulatory filing (pdf). The bid is nonbinding, and IFIC will submit a mandatory tender offer to acquire 100% of NCMP if it wins the first stake. NCMP's other suitors include Al Mona (the local affiliate of global player Louis Dreyfus), a Swiss unit of Archer Daniels Midland, and local commodities giant Cairo Three A Group, which is reported to have recently hired former Egyptian Starch and Glucose boss Hazem Zayed.
Related
IPO WATCH- Investment banks including Pharos Holding, HC, Cairo Financial Holding, and Prime are bidding for a piece of Enppi’s listing on the EGX, Al Mal reports. CI Capital, Beltone, and Arqaam Capital have already presented bids to NI Capital to manage the issuance, and both EFG Hermes and Renaissance Capital are interested, we’re told. The issuance will reportedly have domestic and international lead arrangers, suggesting that international outfits including HSBC, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and JPMorgan are interested. The global coordinators of the transaction are expected to be announced on 3 July.
Related
EARNINGS WATCH- CIB delivered record top- and bottom-line performances to start 2017 as it released its first quarter earnings late last night. The lender delivered 29% revenue growth to EGP 3.32 bn, while its bottom line swelled 34% over the same period last year to EGP 1.73 bn. The bank’s management team noted in a statement that, “This quarter, besides normal growth in net interest income, CIB witnessed remarkable growth in its non-interest income, which tripled from last year, largely driven by a pick-up in trade finance activity and foreign exchange transaction volumes as the foreign currency shortage started to resolve following the CBE decision to float the Egyptian Pound.”
CIB also reminded its investors of the central bank’s February 2017 decision to allow the interim recognition of profits in the capital base for banks, which management noted “expected to allow for relative stability in Bank’s capital levels and to reflect the actual solvency for commercial banks operating in Egypt.” Download CIB’s full earnings release here (pdf).
Palm Hills Developments (PHD) reported its net profit after tax and minority interestincreasing by 101% y-o-y to EGP 212 mn in 1Q2017, the company’s best-ever bottom-line performance, it said in a regulatory filing (pdf). New sales in the quarter topped EGP 3.1 bn, up 58% y-o-y for best-ever single quarter of sales. Chairman Yaseen Mansour says the company “still expect sales growth in FY2017, driven by our new launches in Palm Hills New Cairo, Capital Gardens, the Crown (190 feddan in West Cairo) and Hacienda West, in addition to New Sales from our older projects which cater to clients who want to move in within 1-2 years.” PHD accordingly raised its sales target for the year to EGP 9.5 bn from its previous target of EGP 9.5 bn.
MM Group For Industry And International Trade (MTI) recorded a 171% y-o-y increase in net income in 1Q2017 to EGP 130 mn. MTI said revenues grew 38% y-o-y to EGP 1.5 bn on the back of “outstanding performance from the consumer electronics segment.” The company’s results presentation is here (pdf).
Related
Companies exporting food to the GCC face new regulations imposed Wednesday by the Agriculture Ministry after the Kuwaiti government suspended on Tuesday its imports of a number of Egyptian products that did not meet the required health standards, Youm7 reported. The Agriculture Ministry had promised last month to issue new quality control measures for exported goods, acknowledging that the excessive use of pesticides in Egyptian farming has been a particularly thorny issue, after the UAE halted Egyptian pepper imports for that reason.
Related
Stamp tax on all capital market transactions back with the House for a final vote: Maglis Al Dawla (Council of State) has finished reviewing amendments to the Income Tax Law that will incorporate a stamp tax on EGX transactions, Deputy Finance Minister Amr El Monayer told Al Borsa on Wednesday. The amendments, which the Ismail cabinet had approved in March, impose a 0.125% duty that will gradually increase to 0.175% over a three-year span, on the buy- and sell-sides of all capital market transactions, as well as a 0.3% duty on transactions where 33% or more of a company’s shares are being sold. The House of Representatives will receive the amended bill today. While El Monayer says a final vote should come by 17 May, we’re expecting a delay after MPs reportedly went into recess yesterday until 29 May.
Related
Trade Ministry to amend the proposed automotive directive? The Trade and Industry Ministry is reportedly looking to revisit unspecified sections of the so-called “automotive directive” before sending it back to the House of Representatives for review and a final vote, Al Mal said on Wednesday. The news comes a little more than a week after the European Union’s ambassador to Cairo claimed that the bill — which offers incentives to encourage local assemblers to move further up the value chain into manufacturing — violates the terms of Egypt’s free trade agreement with the EU. European carmakers and local importers of their wares have been lobbying against the automotive directive for the last several months, claiming that it not only offers assemblers too many incentives but could also be potentially harmful for exporters in the long run. (Don’t ask us about the logic on that last bit — we report this stuff, we don’t make it up).
Passed by September? Prodded by their local partners, European car makers had complained about the bill to the European Commission, warning that it may impact future European investments in the Egyptian market. It’s unclear when the ministry intends to send the updated bill back to the House, but the government is hoping to see the law passed by September, House Industry Committee chair Ahmed Samir tells the newspaper. The bill proposes giving local assemblers tax breaks and payouts to protect them against what the industry says are unfair advantages enjoyed by importers of European, Turkish, and Moroccan car brands.
Related
After what felt like a lifetime of postponements, House passes 10% hardship raise: The House of Representatives finally approved the 10% hardship raise for state bureaucrats not covered under the Civil Service Act, Al Borsa reports. The bonus will be calculated using the base salary, and not the gross salary, the House’s Manpower Committee secretary said. MPs agreed with the Finance Ministry that the raise will range from EGP 65-120, House Manpower Committee member Khaled Abdel Aziz said. The raise will be issued before Ramadan, towards the end of May.
Related
HeidelbergCement says its 1Q2017 sales dropped sharply in Egypt due to weak market conditions. While it did not give a specific figure for sales in Egypt, the company says its consolidated revenues increased by 34% y-o-y to EUR 3.8 bn. The company’s losses increased to EUR 35 mn from the EUR 31 mn recorded in 1Q2016.
Related
Take investors’ money, don’t give them disclosure, don’t execute — and pay the price. You may recall our rather intense dislike of Snap, the maker of the app Snapchat (which, for whatever reason, describes itself as “a camera company”). That has nothing to do with our collective inability to figure out the app beloved by teens, and everything with the company at IPO having issued a prospectus that gave investors “no say on how the company is run and no promise of profits … At least 10 of the 12 investment banks that have signed up to underwrite the Snap IPO weren’t even allowed a peek at the S-1 ahead of it being filed.” One observer even described it as “the most shareholder-unfriendly governance in an initial public offering, ever.” (We dissected the prospectus here back in February when was in mid-IPO.)
Well, the chickens came home to roost yesterday: The company’s shares plunged by nearly 25% in after-hours trading as the company missed on revenues and user growth and turned in a bigger bottom-line loss than expected as it reported its first earnings as a publicly traded company. The company, stockwatchers believe, is suffering because Facebook is succeeding in copying Snapchat’s features. “Overall I feel we have executed well on our priorities for this quarter,” Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said during his earnings call yesterday. If you have the stomach, read one of the poorest earnings releases we’ve seen in ages. Business Insider has more.
Related
On the international news front this morning:
- Eni reported its best quarterly profits in two years in 1Q2017 on higher oil prices and production, Reuters reports. Eni is developing Egypt’s supergiant Zohr gasfield, which the development of which is “progressing ahead of schedule,” CEO Claudio Descalzi said.
- KSA’s Olayan Financing Co. may be looking to IPO its bottled water business, Health Water Bottling Co., on the Tadawul, Bloomberg reports. Olayan is a significant investor in Egypt.
- There’s an uproar in Poland about the death of a Polish woman visitingHurghada on vacation, which we noted yesterday authorities had labelled suspicious. The terms now being thrown around including allegations of [redacted] assault, Al-Arabiya reports.
Related
Among the most-clicked stories in Enterprise in the past week:
- The Ikhwan are running their own parallel lobbying mission in DC, and it’s every bit as crazy as you would imagine. (Enterprise)
- Bilingual speakers experience time differently from people who only speak one language, study finds. (The Independent)
- Buffett confronts search for next big thing after missed chances. (Bloomberg)
- Science: Running is better than every other exercise at making you live longer. (GQ)
- Emmanuel Macron is 39 and his wife is 64. French women say it’s about time. (Washington Post) (tie)
- Egypt is the sixth most expensive place in the world to buy an iPhone. (Enterprise) (tie)
Related