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Wednesday, 11 Feb 2026

What We're Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Economy
M&a Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
On Your Way Out
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Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

Cabinet shakeup complete: Here’s what you need to know.
2

Economy

Inflation eases in January, clearing the path for a rate cut tomorrow.
3

M&A WATCH

Beltone completes EUR 197.6 mn Pan-African Baobab acquisition.
4

What We're Tracking Today

Gourmet shares hit 40% regulatory limit in EGX debut.
5

What We're Tracking Today

Global oil firms told to double production by 2030.
6

Also on our Radar

The EU adds EUR 90 mn to the race to fix Egypt’s grid.
7

PLANET FINANCE

China tells its banks to rein in holdings of US Treasuries.
8

HARDHAT

Bricks beat banks as interest rates retreat.

Wednesday, 11 Feb 2026

What We're Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Economy
M&a Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
On Your Way Out
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

Gourmet shares hit 40% regulatory limit in EGX debut

Good morning, friends, we’ve got quite an issue for you today. Leading the issue today — and setting the tone for government policy for the next few years — is a new cabinet sworn in. Unlike what many of us had been expecting, the cabinet economic team has been dramatically shaken up, with a whole host of new faces to head some of the most important ministries.

On the capital markets front, Gourmet broke the IPO drought with a blockbuster EGX debut, with its shares soaring the regulatory maximum of 40%.

The nation’s disinflation story continued yesterday with annual urban inflation cooling to its lowest level since September, undoubtedly emboldening the Central Bank of Egypt to pull the trigger on a rate cut tomorrow. This shift in the monetary cycle is already reverberating through the real estate sector, which we dive into in today’s Hardhat.

***

We’re hiring a technology reporter: EnterpriseAM is looking for a tech reporter to own the beat across Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and beyond.

This is a reporting job — not a desk job. You’ll be working sources, breaking stories, and writing about trendlines (not just headlines) in our voice and with the authority our readers expect. AI and digital infrastructure are huge features of the beat, but our interests are broad: fintech, telecoms, regulation, SaaS, and the bajillion ways tech is reshaping how businesses operate across the region.

We want someone who can pick up the phone or WhatsApp, get people talking, and turn what they say into stories that senior decision-makers need to read. We also expect you to attend industry events and maintain relationships with PR folks across the industry without selling out. If you’ve got 2-3 years of experience and the hunger to build a beat from the ground up, we want to hear from you. We’re also interested in hearing from veteran reporters. Spoken Arabic is strongly preferred.

The role is based in Cairo, though we’re open to remote for the right candidate. If you’re reading EnterpriseAM, you know what we’re about: A no-BS daily news outlet that tells busy execs, investors, founders, and ambitious people what they need to know about the trends shaping business, economy, finance, regulation, and public policy across our region. We write stories that have impact — about issues that matter — for a global audience of decision-makers.

Do we sound like the type of place where you want work? Send your CV and three clips to jobs@enterpriseamea.com. Also enclose a great cover letter that tells us who you are, what you do, and why you’d be a great fit for this job.

***

From the bourse

Gourmet made its debut on the EGX yesterday, with shares hitting the 40% regulatory limit to close at EGP 9.66 a pop. The stock opened at its IPO price of EGP 6.90 — the top end of its indicative range — after a bookbuilding process that saw the private tranche 12.2x oversubscribed and the public tranche 55.8x oversubscribed.

This is the first EGX listing of 2026, and it effectively breaks the IPO drought with a high-quality private sector name. By hitting the 40% discovery-day limit, the market is signaling that EFG Hermes and B Investments priced the entry at a level that invited immediate secondary demand.

What's next? Starting today, the daily price limits will tighten from 40% back to the standard ±20%. The Price Stabilization Fund is now live for 30 days (until 11 March). EFG Hermes is obligated to maintain a buy order at the EGP 6.90 IPO price for the public tranche, essentially putting a floor under the stock for the first month.

AND WHILE WE’RE ON THE TOPIC OF IPOs- El Ezaby Pharma could make its EGX debut next year, significant shareholder B Investments’ Chairman Hazem Barakat told Asharq Business. It’s still early days, with an offering manager still to be appointed and the stake size yet to be determined.

Watch this space

ENERGY — International oil companies were told to double production by 2030, but the economics don’t stack up under current contracts, Reuters reports, citing Energean CEO Nicolas Katcharov. The pricing framework that supported earlier development phases has “expired,” making it harder for companies to justify new capital, especially at brownfield assets, Katcharov said. Domestic gas prices no longer reflect costs, he added, pointing to a wide gap with imported gas.

Why this matters: Output has fallen to its lowest level since 2016, just as LNG imports and Israeli inflows have become structural in the energy mix. Brownfield expansions are a near-term fix that can stabilize supply without ballooning the import bill, but they require pricing that reflects the higher cost of squeezing gas out of aging reservoirs.

The state says it wants to fix the issue, having agreed to increase the price it pays for domestically produced gas from five foreign partners by 30-50%, with deepwater fields set for the highest increases. If contract terms shift to better reflect the true cost of gas and arrears drop, investment could accelerate.

CYBER SECURITY — No hack here, EgyptAir told EnterpriseAM in response to claims by a hacker that they are selling 104k stolen records from the state-owned airline’s HR and recruitment databases, which was reported by cybersecurity intelligence firm Hackmanac. The leak allegedly included accounts and passwords, national ID details, personal details, and other documents.

EgyptAir told us no data breach or leak has been detected, and that no signs of a cyber attack have appeared on its system in connection with the files in question. The national flag carrier added that its HR and employee data is stored at its primary data center, which is “subject to strict security procedures and systems implemented according to the highest protection standards adopted by the company” with the support of a specialized cybersecurity firm.

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Happening today

It’s day one of Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa summit at the Egypt International Exhibition Center, which brings together startups, investors, and policymakers from more than 60 countries to explore investments and innovation in the AI sector. The two-day event will feature a ministerial AI policy summit, exhibitions, panel discussions, networking sessions, and a hackathon.

Happening tomorrow

The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will hold its first meeting of the year tomorrow, with yesterday’s January inflation data strengthening expectations for further easing. We’ve got more on inflation reaching its slowest pace since September in the newswell below.

The consensus among 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM is clear: the country is ready to continue, if not accelerate, its easing cycle. Of the analysts we surveyed, nine are calling for an immediate reduction in the overnight deposit rate. Projections range from a cautious 100 bps to a more aggressive 200 bps, which would bring the deposit rate down from its current 21.00%.

***

WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
***

PSA

You can now get your international driving license straight from Cairo International Airport. The Automobile and Touring Club of Egypt inked a protocol with the Interior Ministry to expand the service to the airport, effective as of the end of last month, it said in a statement. Licenses are being issued at Terminal 3 and the Air Mall shopping area.

Get your papers right: To apply, you’ll need your original local driving license (held for at least one year) and a copy, two passport-style photos with a white background, and a valid national ID or passport along with a copy. You will also need to provide a completed application form and payment for the issuance fees.

WEATHER- We will enjoy a cooler, more comfortable day in Cairo today, with a high of 23°C and a low of 14°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a couple of degrees cooler still in Alexandria, with a high of 21°C and a low of 13°C.

The big story abroad

Recent Wall Street gainers have one thing in common — they are not tech: Amid mountingfears over AI advancements superseding software firms, equities of formerly disfavored sectors have risen, namely supermarkets, energy companies, and manufacturers. Investors have poured USD 62 bn into funds focused on non-tech stocks in recent weeks, outgrossing the USD 50 bn they attracted in the whole of 2025.

Brokerages were not spared: Major US brokerages were also hit by the selloff — Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and Raymond James saw shares sharply drop.

MEANWHILE- US retail figures lag, raise doubts over spending: US retail sales during the December holiday season remained flat, suggesting that consumers remain held back by high living costs and job market precariousness.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at how lower interest rates are beginning to break the gridlock in Egypt’s mortgage market.

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At Somabay, everything begins with connection. The quiet moments, the shared laughter, and the sense of belonging. This Valentine’s Day, we celebrate the bonds that make life feel warmer and more meaningful; today and every day.

2

The Big Story Today

Cabinet shakeup complete: Here’s what you need to know

Meet Madbouly’s newest cabinet: Yesterday, the House voted for a cabinet shuffle that introduced several fresh faces to take over ministries. We dive into the most notable moves below.

TL;DR: The shuffle introduces 13 new ministers to the cabinet and bids farewell to 11 others. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly will continue to head the cabinet, a post he has held for nearly eight years, becoming one of the longest-serving prime ministers in the country’s history.

Among the biggest names keeping their positions is Ahmed Kouchouk, who has been heading the Finance Ministry since the 2024 cabinet shuffle. During the 18-month period that Kouchouk has been minister, tax reforms have taken the front seat. He introduced a hefty package of tax reforms, which has proven fruitful, pulling over EGP 1 tn into the formal economy.

A new (old) face will take over the Investment Ministry: The Financial Regulatory Authority’s Mohamed Farid (LinkedIn) is taking over the Investment and Foreign Trade Ministry from Hassan El Khatib, who helped revive the ministry when he joined the cabinet back in the 2024 shuffle. EnterpriseAM readers are well acquainted with Farid — he has headed the FRA since 2022, before which he led the EGX. It remains unclear who will replace Farid as head of the regulatory body.

We also have a new Planning Minister: Ahmed Rostom (LinkedIn) is taking over from Rania Al Mashat — the Ministry of Planning is now a standalone institution. Rostom joins cabinet after a 16-year run at the World Bank, most recently serving as senior financial sector specialist.

Ministerial housekeeping: The International Cooperation Ministry — formerly headed by Al Mashat — is merging with the Foreign Ministry, which remains under the leadership of Badr Abdelatty.

The Information Ministry made a comeback, after being dissolved in 2021, with head of the State Information Service’s Diaa Rashwan at its helm.

Khaled Hashem (LinkedIn) is appointed as Industry Minister, taking over the role formerly held by Kamel El Wazir. Hashem has spent almost a decade at US conglomerate Honeywell, most recently as Middle East and Africa head.

Speaking of El Wazir, he is staying on as Transport Minister, having his remit pared down to a single ministry only.

ALSO- The Public Business Sector Ministry, headed by Mohamed Shimy, has been abolished. The portfolio moves to the Prime Minister’s office, where it will remain until the updated State Ownership Policy document is finalized.

El Sisi’s core economic directives: The core pillars of the presidential mandate issued to the newly-reformed cabinet include national security and foreign policy, economic development, production, energy, food security, and human development.

The President has called on the economic team to prioritize reducing debt, especially as our IMF program nears its conclusion. This should coincide with the gradual increase of private-sector participation in the economy and exploration of new sectors, namely technology and rare minerals.

Who else is in the new cabinet?

OIL AND ENERGY RESOURCES- Karim Badawi keeps his position, which he has held since 2024.

AGRICULTURE- Alaa Farouk keeps his position — he was first appointed in 2024.

INTERIOR- Mahmoud Tawfik keeps his position, which he has held since 2018.

JUSTICE- Mahmoud Helmi Al Sherif takes over from Adnan El Fangary. Al Sherif has held several positions within the ministry over the past years.

HEALTH AND POPULATION- Khaled Abdel Ghaffar keeps his position. He assumed his role in 2021 after taking over from Hala Zayed.

TOURISM- Sherif Fathy keeps his role, which he assumed in 2024. Fathy was the country’s civil aviation minister between 2016 and 2018.

ELECTRICITY- Mahmoud Esmat keeps his position. He has been Electricity Minister since 2024, after taking over from Mohamed Shaker. He was previously Public Enterprises Minister.

SUPPLY AND INTERNAL TRADE- Sherif Farouk keeps his role, which he has held since 2024.

IRRIGATION AND WATER RESOURCES- Hany Sewilam keeps his position. He was appointed in 2022.

EDUCATION- Mohamed Abdellatif remains in the office he has held since 2024.

HIGHER EDUCATION AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH- Abdelaziz Konsowa replaces Ayman Ashour. Konsowa was the president of Alexandria University.

HOUSING- Randa Al Minshawi replaces Sherif El Sherbini. Al Minshawi was previously first assistant to the Prime Minister.

DEFENSE- Gen. Ashraf Salem Mansour replaces Gen. Abdel Maguid Sakr.

CIVIL AVIATION- Sameh Elhefny keeps his position.

COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY- Raafat Hindi — former deputy minister — takes over from Amr Talaat.

MILITARY PRODUCTION- Salah Suleiman succeeds Mohamed Salah Eldin Moustafa.

CULTURE- Gihane Zaki replaces Ahmed Hanno. Zaki previously served as the head of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

LABOR- Hassan Raddad steps in to replace Mohamed Gobran.

LOCAL DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT- Manal Awad continues as Local Development Minister, a role she has held since 2024. She has been acting Environment Minister since mid-2025, when Yasmine Fouad left to join the UN.

ENDOWMENTS- Usama Al Azhari keeps his role.

SOCIAL SOLIDARITY- Maya Morsy remains in office.

SPORTS AND YOUTH- Gohar Nabil is taking the post previously held by Ashraf Sobhy. Nabil is a former professional handball player.

PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS- Hani Azer is taking up the post, as Mahmoud Fawzi steps down. Azer was previously deputy Justice Minister for Legislative Affairs.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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3

Economy

Inflation eases in January, clearing the path for rate cut tomorrow

Annual urban inflation stood at 11.9% in January, marking its lowest level since September and a 0.4 percentage point drop from December, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. The reading gives us reason to believe the Central Bank of Egypt will move forward with a rate cut when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow to review rates.

The dip in the headline figure occurred despite an uptick in the prices of food and beverages, which rose 1.9% y-o-y in January — the sharpest increase in six months — driven by a jump in vegetables, fruits, fish, and seafood prices.

This pressure “was more than offset by weaker energy and core inflation,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. January’s reading came in line with Capital Economics’ forecast of 11.8% and LSEG’s prediction of 11.7%, Swanston noted. Meanwhile, Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena told us that the reading was slightly above his forecast of 11.6% on average, “which likely takes a deep 200 bps cut off the table.”

On a monthly basis, inflation rose to 1.2% in January, up from 0.2% the month before, triggered by a 2.3% m-o-m increase in food and beverage prices, specifically a 6.9% m-o-m jump in vegetable prices. Other items in the basket of goods used to measure inflation saw little change in prices m-o-m.

What about core inflation? Annual core inflation — which excludes volatile items like food and fuel — fell to 11.2% y-o-y in January from 11.8% the month before, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation came in at 1.2%, up from 0.2% in December.

Don’t rule out a rate cut just yet: Genena believes the CBE still has sufficient room to cut rates by 100 bps, stating that “all the underlying factors support this move.” He cited continued deceleration, exchange rate stability, and the EGP’s appreciation against the USD as key drivers that will moderate inflation in the months ahead, particularly for imported production inputs. CI Capital, too, has penciled in a 100 bps rate cut.

Why a cut is logical: Genena argues that maintaining an unusually wide real interest rate buffer is “no longer logical,” especially given the government’s decision to delay electricity and fuel price hikes and keep basic commodity prices unchanged. He further noted that the economy is entering a 10-11 month window with limited supply-side risks, aside from the early February cigarette price hike, which he expects will be “absorbed through base effects.”

Why it matters: As inflation concerns cool, the CBE is increasingly emboldened to push ahead with its easing cycle. For the government, the move is critical to providing the Finance Ministry with much-needed breathing room on its debt-service costs. For the private sector, it signals the definitive start of a lower-interest-rate environment.

Some believe the CBE may decide to stay cautious: “We believe the CBE might prefer to be more cautious for now,” Thndr’s Esraa Ahmed tells us, citing episodes of Brent price increases due to geopolitical risks, upward pressure on some prices, and a relatively slow net buying of domestic debt by foreigners in the secondary market.

Looking ahead, analysts expect headline inflation to continue its downward path toward the CBE’s target range of 7% (±2%). Looking at the full year, Capital Economics sees room for 600 bps cuts through this year, while Genena is more optimistic, penciling in 600-800 bps of cuts, and Beltone’s Ahmed Hafez sees room for 700 bps in cuts.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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4

M&A WATCH

Beltone completes EUR 197.6 mn Pan-African Baobab acquisition

Beltone Holding completed its largest transaction to date with the EUR 197.6 mn acquisition of 100% of Baobab Group through its subsidiary Beltone Capital, the financial services provider said in a statementyesterday(pdf). The acquisition marks Beltone’s first major cross-border expansion and sets the foundation for its evolution into a Pan-African financial services platform. The transaction came following a share purchase agreement in February 2025 to acquire the stake from UK-based private equity firm Apis Partners.

The assets in question: Baobab is a leading financial service provider offering financial access to small African businesses and micro entrepreneurs. Baobab operates across seven African nations, including Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Burkina Faso, Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria. It serves approximately 1.6 mn customers, and manages a gross loan book of EUR 848.8 mn.

Deployment of dry powder: The acquisition puts part of Beltone’s recent capital raises to work. After lifting a combined EGP 21.4 bn through two capital increases in 2023 and 2025, the company is deploying that liquidity beyond Egypt.

Why it matters: Through a single transaction, Beltone gains an operational presence across some of the largest and fastest-growing African markets. Baobab brings immediate scale and infrastructure, with around 50% of its lending already disbursed digitally through automated credit-decision systems. By combining capital strength with a data-driven approach to lending, the group is targeting underpenetrated credit markets where access to finance remains structurally constrained and demand for scalable solutions is rising.

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5

Also on our Radar

EU backs grid and renewables developments with EUR 90 mn grant

The EU adds EUR 90 mn to the race to fix Egypt’s grid

A EUR 90 mn grant from the European Union is coming our way to support investments in the electricity grid and renewable energy development, according to a cabinet statement. European backing has been one of our go-tos for grid support, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development committing EUR 200 mn to support grid upgrades last year. Another EUR 35 mn grant was also inked for Scatec’s green ammonia project in Ain Sokhna.

Why this matters: The grid wasn’t built for volatile wind and solar energy, risking large chunks of new capacity going unused. The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company spent EGP 26.3 bn upgrading the grid’s infrastructure during the last fiscal year, and Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib has spoken about the need for USD 45 bn in distribution infrastructure investments to integrate new clean capacity.

Eastern Company, Philip Morris hike cigarette prices

State-owned Eastern Company approved a direct price increase across several of its cigarette brands, with the new prices officially taking effect yesterday, it said in a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. Under the revised list, the prices of Cleopatra King Size, Cleopatra Soft Queen, Cleopatra Box, Cleopatra Super, and Mondial cigarettes were raised by around 9%.

US tobacco giant Philip Morris also hiked prices by up to 8% for its cigarettes and heated tobacco products last week, according to a statement (pdf). The price of its higher-end smokes climbed as much as 6%, while its more affordable L&M brand saw an 8% increase along with its Terea heated tobacco range.

IN CONTEXT- Cigarette price hikes are rooted in a tax framework that treats tobacco as a dependable revenue source for the government, with excise duties and VAT forming a large share of retail prices and partially funding public health spending. The latest increases build on a July 2025 VAT law amendment that expanded price brackets and allowed annual hikes of up to 12%. The Tax Authority leveraged this mechanism in October to impose a second 12% tobacco tax increase this FY — reinforcing tobacco’s role as a budget lever with limited demand fallout.

Madinet Masr taps Al Shorouk Construction for EGP 4.8 bn Sarai build-out

Madinet Masr signed a EGP 4.8 bn MoU with Al Shorouk Construction to construct 81 residential buildings in the Elan phase of its Sarai project in East Cairo, according to a statement (pdf) from the developer. Delivery is expected by the end of 2027.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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6

PLANET FINANCE

China tells its banks to rein in holdings of US Treasuries

It may sound like a geopolitical warning shot, but China’s latest directive to curb US debt holdings is better read as a risk-management exercise. Officials in Beijing have recently issued a verbal directive to major banks to limit purchases of US government bonds and trim existing holdings to reduce concentration risk, Bloomberg reports. While the headlines echo past trade-war fears of coordinated “dump the USD,” insiders and economists say the move reflects balance-sheet housekeeping rather than geopolitical escalation.

This is likely a cleanup operation, not a strategic exit, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Brad Setser told Axios. Over the past two months, Chinese exporters sold roughly USD 100 bn per month to state-owned banks, which in turn parked much of that inflow in US Treasuries, creating a lopsided risk profile that Chinese regulators are now seeking to rebalance, Setser noted.

The move was framed around diversification rather than concerns over US creditworthiness, helping explain the muted market reaction. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher, but volatility measures are setting near five-year lows, signaling limited investor alarm.

While commercial banks clean up their books, longer-term data point to a broader shift in who holds America’s debt. China’s official Treasury holdings have fallen to USD 683 bn — their lowest level since 2008 — dropping the country to third place behind Japan and the UK.

But analysts say that this does not amount to a full retreat. Holdings in custodial accounts in Belgium — often seen as a proxy for Chinese holdings — have quadrupled since 2017 to USD 481 bn. At the same time, total foreign holdings of US treasuries climbed to a record USD 9.4 bn in November, underscoring continued global demand for USD assets.

The diplomatic backdrop reinforces the view that the financial directive is not a signal of escalating hostilities. US Treasury staff were in China last week to strengthen communication channels ahead of a planned meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, Reuters reports. Those talks are setting the stage for a potential summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing as early as April.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Markets this morning are reacting to US retail sales figures, which came in lower than expected. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets appear to be nearing the end of their almost-weeklong rally triggered by Japan’s election, posting softer gains in early trading this morning. The Nikkei is closed today as Japan celebrates National Foundation Day.

EGX30

50,376

+0.2% (YTD: +20.4%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 46.80

Sell 46.92

USD (CIB)

Buy 46.82

Sell 46.92

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

11,214

+0.2% (YTD: +6.9%)

ADX

10,651

+0.2% (YTD: +6.6%)

DFM

6,772

0.0% (YTD: +12.0%)

S&P 500

6,942

-0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)

FTSE 100

10,354

-0.3% (YTD: +4.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,047

-0.2% (YTD: +4.4%)

Brent crude

USD 69.08

+0.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.15

+0.3%

Gold

USD 5,045

-0.7%

BTC

USD 68,641

-2.5% (YTD: -21.7%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,020

+0.3% (YTD: +2.7%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

152.1

+0.1% (YTD: +0.1%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.79

+2.5% (YTD: +19.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 8.4 bn (43.2% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 20.4% YTD.

In the green: Heliopolis Housing (+3.9%), Telecom Egypt (+2.2%), and EFG Holding (+2.0%).

In the red: Edita (-2.3%), Ibnsina Pharma (-2.0%), and Qalaa Holdings (-1.5%).

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Our weekly deep-dive into infrastructure in Egypt.

Published every Wednesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Hardhat
7

HARDHAT

Bricks beat banks as interest rates retreat

The Central Bank of Egypt is meeting tomorrow to decide the immediate future of interest rates, but for the real estate sector, the signal has already been sent. After a peak tightening cycle in 2024, the market is now in a sustained easing period. With 725 bps of rate cuts having already taken place in 2025, the industry is thinking hard about how cheaper loans will fundamentally change the way property is sold, financed, and held in Egypt.

The most immediate impact of the rate-cutting cycle has been the cost of debt. For years, the mortgage market in Egypt has been effectively paralyzed by corridor rates that made traditional borrowing a non-starter for most households. But “when interest rates drop, bank loans become cheaper,” Uptown 6 October CEO Moataz Sharawy explained to EnterpriseAM, which means “those who were waiting or unable to buy due to high installments will now find it easier and more affordable.”

Cheaper financing turns “deferred demand to actual demand,” Housing and Development Properties Vice Chairman Amjad Hassanein tells us. When rates drop, the total interest burden over a 10- or 15-year tenor shrinks significantly, meaning that “every 1% cut in interest is followed by a tangible expansion in the base of customers eligible for long-term loans,” he added. The impact of interest rates is sizable, with Hassanien describing them as “the biggest driver of purchasing power in the real estate market.”

Real estate to replace CDs as the investment vehicle of choice

For the past two years, the Egyptian real estate market acted as a defensive hedge against currency volatility. But now, as interest rates on bank certificates of deposit (CDs) have dropped from 25%+ toward the mid-teens, tns of EGP in maturing certificates are looking for a new home — excuse the pun.

“When bank interest on certificates and deposits drops, people look for something else to put their money in that brings a better return” — and the obvious choice is real estate, Sharawy tells us. Sharawy pointed to real estate not only as a store of value that protects against inflation but also as an asset that can generate a fixed return in the form of rent.

“Lower interest rates do more than just lower the cost of a loan — they signal a shift,” Misr Italia Properties (MIP) tells EnterpriseAM. As bank yields decline, the total return on property — the combination of rental yield and capital appreciation — is starting to outperform fixed-income instruments for the first time since the 2024 devaluation. Hassanien tells us his company expects this will lead to “a major migration wave of liquidity toward the real estate sector.”

The start of a proper mortgage industry?

Perhaps the most significant shift for 2026 is the re-entry of the banking sector into the primary residential market. Historically, Egyptian developers were forced to act as banks, carrying eight- to 10-year installment plans on their own balance sheets because mortgage rates were prohibitive. “This was a necessity, not a choice,” MIP tells us.

As rates normalize toward the mid-teens, the burden of financing is shifting back to formal mortgage products. “We are seeing banks introduce step-up mortgages and longer tenors,” MIP tells us. This allows developers to de-risk their balance sheets and recycle liquidity into construction speed rather than long-term credit management.

The move also aligns with the state’s push to “expand the ownership base and enhance the role of mortgages as a primary tool for activating the market,“ Mountain View tells us.

Faster completions, stalled-project restarts, and increased competition

Lower rates don't just help buyers — they stabilize the supply chain. “When interest rates drop, the cost of the loan for [developers] decreases, which gives them more money to work with, complete projects faster, and launch new ones,” Sharawy explained. Mountain View similarly pointed to how a “lower-cost financing environment contributes to raising the efficiency of the sector and increasing developers' ability to develop new projects, with a direct impact on the quality and speed of execution.” For the buyer, this means the gap between the first installment and the key-handover should, in theory, begin to shrink.

The high-rate era left a trail of stalled projects — developments that were no longer feasible because their financing models collapsed under 25%+ interest. But as rates get lower, “project owners will be able to take new loans with better terms and complete the work that was stopped,” Sharawy tells us. The restarting of projects will also be helped by “government-backed solutions addressing land fee disputes and execution delays,” MIP said.

A lower cost of entry also invites competition. The market in 2024 saw a “consolidation toward quality,” MIP tells us, where only the most well-capitalized players survived. As financing becomes more accessible, “competition will increase, which means more options and better quality for the buyer,” Sharawy said. But while this increases options for buyers, it also places a premium on due diligence — as the market expands, the gap between institutional-grade developers and speculative players will widen.

The return of the middle classes to the market

While the luxury segment captures the headlines, the real shift is happening in the middle- and upper-middle-income bracket. “The people who will benefit most are middle-income earners,” Sharawy tells us, explaining that “any reduction in the monthly installment makes a huge difference for them and helps them make the purchasing decision.”

The impact has already been observed, with MIP telling EnterpriseAM that “we are seeing a resurgence in the middle-income segment of young professionals and growing families who view the current rate environment as a window before the next cycle of price appreciation.”

Talk of an incoming fall in property prices may be just that — talk

Expectations of a price crash are misplaced. In 2023 and 2024, price spikes of 30-40% were defensive reactions to currency volatility, the developers we spoke to told us. In 2026, we are entering a phase of price rationalization. While prices will continue to rise, the growth will be more natural and healthy, driven by actual demand for housing rather than speculation, we were told.

“In the short term, we may not witness a direct decrease in unit prices due to building material cost pressures, but the rate cut will act as a brake on violent price increases,” Hassanien said. Mountain View similarly told us how lower rates and more favorable financing help the “market absorb current prices more smoothly and create a more stable pricing environment without the need for sharp increases or pricing pressure resulting from high financing costs.”

Putting a lid on major price decreases is the fact that “the pricing of real estate units is determined by a wide range of variables, including construction cost, currency price, construction cycle, and the nature of demand, and not by interest alone,” Mountain View said.

Lower interest rates also flip the rent vs. buy calculation. “When ownership becomes easier and cheaper, many people who were renting will prefer to buy and own,” Sharawy tells us. As ownership becomes cheaper via more affordable financing, we may even see a slight cooling in the rental market for middle-income housing as tenants transition into owners, he added.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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ON YOUR WAY OUT

The UAE-Ethiopia-RSF Nexus, per Reuters

The UAE has allegedly financed and helped manage a secret military camp in western Ethiopia to train thousands of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters, according to an investigation by Reuters. Satellite imagery and diplomatic cables reveal that the camp began expanding rapidly in October. It now houses over 4k recruits, with drone infrastructure also appearing at the nearby Asosa airport that was also reportedly funded by the UAE.

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CALENDAR

2026

FEBRUARY

11-12 February (Wednesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit.

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting of 2026.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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