Good morning, friends. We have already started the countdown to the Eid Al Adha break, but until then we have plenty of business news to catch up on.
HAPPENING TODAY-
#1- Egypt hosts three-way talks to reopen Rafah crossing: Egyptian, US, and Israeli officials will convene today in Cairo to discuss reopening the Rafah crossing, a high level source told Al Qahera News. Egypt is demanding Israeli forces give up control of the Palestinian side of the crossing before it agrees to reopen it. The crossing has been closed for weeks now following Israel’s occupation.
#2- Qalaa Holdings shareholders can buy into its debt today after its ordinary general assembly approved the debt payback plan. Shareholders can buy into the debt purchase transactions — a series of transactions that will see Qalaa retire some USD 430 mn in foreign-currency debt — in EGP or USD.
What’s next? If the company doesn’t raise the full debt amount tomorrow, it will open a second round of subscription on 9 June.
Read more: We spoke with Qalaa founder and chairman Ahmed Heikal last month to get the full picture.
#3- House gears up to vote on the state budget: The House is back in session today and tomorrow to discuss and vote on the proposed state budget and socioeconomic development plan for the next fiscal year.
Oil exploration in the Western Desert is also on the House’s agenda: The House will also discuss four draft bills allowing the Oil Minister to contract foreign and local companies to explore for oil in Siwa, El Alamein, and to the east of the Ghazalat area.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Another IPO to stay on the lookout for? Cairo-focused Al Ismaelia for Real EstateInvestment is currently looking into a capital increase ahead of making its market debut in two years time, CEO Karim Shafie told Asharq Business.
#2- Land-for-FX initiative put on ice for expats: The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) has suspended land-for-FX sales for Egyptians abroad until it assesses the compatibility of the initiative with the central bank’s policies, according to a statement. Foreign investors and companies are excluded from this decision.
Refresher: Introduced in December 2022, the land-for-FX initiative offers land for local and foreign investors and companies for FX, provided that it is sourced from outside Egypt. The initiative was part of government programs set in motion to shore up the country’s FX reserves and attract more foreign currency investments.
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THE CRYSTAL BALL-
Bread subsidy cuts forecasted to push up monthly inflation: The Madbouly government’s decision to hike the price of subsidized bread 300% — the first time bread subsidies have been touched in 30 years — could see m-o-m inflation rise by up to 3.5% in June, analysts say.
- The largest forecasted jump came from CI Capital, which predicts that the subsidy cut will increase m-o-m inflation 2.5-3.5% in June, the firm said in a note seen by Enterprise. However, their average forecast for 2024 is more optimistic, seeing inflation averaging between 26-29%, down from 34% the year before.
- Naeem Brokerage anticipates a m-o-m 2.2% rise on the back of the price hikes, the firm said in notes seen by Enterprise
- Fitch Solutions’ MENA country risk chief Ramona Moubarak sees m-o-m inflation rising an additional 1.0 percentage points on the back of the price rise. Fitch now sees inflation averaging around 30% for the year and 18% in 2025.
NEWS TRIGGERS-
It’s the first week of June — here are the key news triggers to keep your eyes on in this month:
- Checking up on the nation’s non-oil private sector: S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for May on Tuesday, 4 June, measuring the country’s non-oil private sector activity, which has been in contraction for the last 41 months. We’re still yet to see the hoped for uptick in business activity following the float of the EGP in March, recent policy shifts, the expanded IMF package, Gulf investments and funds from international lenders, and focus on clearing backlogs.
- Inflation nation: Capmas and the CBE are expected to publish the inflation data for May on Tuesday 10 June. Policy makers and the business community will be hoping that headline inflation cools for a third consecutive month in May, after having eased on the back of slower food price increases as traders continued to price in a lower exchange rate than in the now-defunct parallel market.
- Egypt and the EU will host a joint investment conference on 29-30 June with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in attendance. The conference is expected to bring together some 450 European companies and is being hyped up as something for the business community inside and outside of Egypt to get excited about. Watch this space.
PSA-
WEATHER- The heatwave returns. The capital is in for another hot week with highs reaching 40°C. Today we are looking at highs of 37°C and lows of 24°C, according to our favorite weather app.
It’s cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 33°C and a low of 22°C.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Opening the door for the private sector: Companies looking to go green and leverage privately produced renewable energy have until the end of August to send their requests to the Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (Egyptera), according to a statement. This comes under the first phase of an Egyptera initiative which will allow the private sector to use the state’s electricity grid to transmit electricity to their end clients.
Remember: The EBRD has been working with Egyptera on improving its regulatory framework to promote a more competitive market and increase the private sector’s role in producing, distributing, and selling power. Private-sector players have long been asking for the ability to use the state’s electricity grid to transmit electricity to their end clients. Currently, clients operating solar and wind facilities generate electricity and sell it to the state under a long-term offtake agreement.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.
WAR WATCH-
Fresh hopes for a ceasefire agreement? Israel has proposed a three-part plan that would end with a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages, US President Joe Biden said on Friday. Hamas reportedly “had a positive view” of the plan.
The details: The first phase will include a full six-week ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, the release of some Israeli hostages in exchange of hundreds of Palestinians, and the entrance of 600 trucks of humanitarian aid into Gaza every day. During the first six weeks, Hamas and Israel would negotiate “the necessary arrangements to get to phase two.” A final phase would see the start of reconstruction in Gaza.
Netanyahu is dead-set on destroying Hamas first: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli side will not agree to a permanent ceasefire before the destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capabilities.
A joint call from the three mediators: Egypt, the US, and Qatar are “ jointly calling on both Hamas and Israel to finalize the agreement.” The news got on ink from: Reuters | FT | Associated Press.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
MEANWHILE, IN INDIA- Another term for Modi? The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will likely lead the world’s fastest-growing economy for another five years, according to exit polls. Pundits see the BJP winning up to 401 seats in India’s 543-seat lower house — aka Lok Sabha. Election results will be announced on Tuesday. (FT | BBC | CNBC)
Dive deeper: Bloomberg senior editor Menaka Doshi has deep dive on what Modi’s exit pollvictorytells us about his dominance across India.
TO THE SOUTH: There’s nothing but uncertainty in South Africa after the ruling African National Congress lost its 30-year parliamentary majority, putting the country on a “new political path for the first time since the end of the apartheid system of white minority rule 30 years ago,” the AP writes.
Why does this matter? This change in parliamentary leadership puts the presidency of Cyril Ramaphosa in question. It now needs to form a coalition with partners it has spent months badmouthing, and at least one of them wants Ramaphosa out before it will consider talks. (BBC | FT | Reuters)
Business will be watching closely: The ANC’s potential coalition partners include a right-leaning group popular with Afrikaaners that wants to end black-ownership and -employee quotas — and a left-leaning party that wants to nationalize key industries.
IN BUSINESS NEWS- KSA HQs for all. The Saudi government is ramping up efforts to lure Wall Street firms to the Kingdom, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund has reportedly amended the documents it sends out to bankers who are looking to secure business contracts in Saudi to include inquiries into whether or not they’ve secured a regional headquarters license.
China has become the first nation to land on the far side of the moon: A Chinese spacecraft touched down on the far side of the moon a few hours ago, helping China gain points in the “ global rush to the moon.” The far side of the moon has remained unexplored by humans until now, seeing as it is more challenging when it comes to communications because it never faces Earth. With its robotic lunar exploration mission Chang’e-6, the nation will try to collect lunar material and bring it back to earth — another first for humankind.
AND ON THE CLIMATE FRONT- Up to 300 families are preparing to permanently leave behind their homes on a small Panamanian island due to rising sea levels. They are expected to be the first of 63 communities living on Panama’s Caribbean and Pacific coasts to evacuate their homes due to rising sea levels.





