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Madbouly to form a new cabinet after his old cabinet resigned

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Could Egypt set up a storage facility for Russian grain?

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. The news flow has picked up after a slower start to the week with news of the Madbouly cabinet resigning and the House approving the state budget for the upcoming fiscal year.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Maait says not to believe everything you see online: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said that the tax policy document circulating on social media is a months-old “initial concept” that has now gone through revisions. The document laying out taxation policies throughout El Sisi’s third term is still in the works and will be opened up for community dialogue in the “coming weeks.”

SPEAKING OF- What’s in this tax doc? It includes a new tax on carbon emissions from petroleum products, according to Asharq Business.

Timing is everything: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to fully go into effect starting 2026, which could have a considerable impact on Egypt’s exports — particularly from the country’s notoriously energy-intensive steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizer industries. The carbon border tax will make up the difference between the local carbon price — if there is one — and the EU’s carbon price, meaning that if Egypt doesn’t tax the carbon on EU-bound imports, the EU will.


#2- A storage facility for Russian grain? An Egyptian firm has sent a feasibility study to the Russian government over potentially establishing a hub to store and process Russian grain, Reuters reported, citing a statement from Trade Minister Ahmed Samir to Russian news agency RIA. The hub could be built in Port Said, Damietta, or Sokhna, Samir reportedly said.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Attention, marketing professionals: The American Chamber of Commerce will hold a conference today at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza to discuss the latest and future trends in marketing. The event will host PepsiCo’s Tamer El Rafei, Microsoft’s Mohamed Salah, Talabat’s Hadeer Shalaby as speakers, along with actress Amina Khalil for a fireside chat. Register for the event here and check out the agenda here.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another hot day in Cairo, with a high of 38°C and a low of 25°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C and a low of 23°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

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DATA POINT-

Egyptian banks received EGP 258 bn in deposits from outside the banking system in the first four months of the year, with high-yield certificates of deposits contributing a bulk of the deposits, Al Arabiya Business reports, citing data from the Central Bank of Egypt.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

#1- OIL WATCH- Oil prices fell over 3% yesterday to their lowest in close to fourmonths in response to Sunday’s OPEC+ decision to gradually increase output towards the end of the year, which left investors worried. Brent crude futures fell 3.4% to USD 78.36 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.6% from Friday to USD 74.22 a barrel.

#2- Tension between besties Russia and China? The Financial Times is picking up on growing tension between Russia and its closest ally China, after Beijing asked to purchase Russian gas at heavily subsidized domestic prices, endangering a major gas pipeline agreement between the two countries.

#3- Closer to home: Israel’s coalition government has fallen into infighting over a proposed ceasefire plan — and relations between Cairo and Tel Aviv are ever more frosty after Israel “defied Egyptian warnings and took control of the Philadelphi Corridor.

YOUR DAILY DOSE OF ELECTION COVERAGE- Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK’s Independence Party and a Brexiteer, will be running in next month’s UK general election. Farage “has been one of the most influential politicians in Britain since the Thatcher era,” the Guardian writes in a profile about the politician. The general election will take place on 4 July — Labour is looking to form its first government since May 2010.

AND- Mexican voters have elected Claudia Sheinbaum as the nation’s first woman president. She looks on track to claim a 30 percentage point margin of victory, giving her the opportunity to “reshape the country’s political landscape” together with her allies, the New York Times notes. Some investors are spooked, the Financial Times writes, noting some have “sold the peso on fears of radical constitutional change.”

FINALLY- The rich be getting richer: Half of the CEOs running S&P 500 companies surveyedby AP made at least 196x what their median employee earned last year, up from 185x in 2022. Data from the newswire also showed that CEOs’ median pay package rose 12.6% to USD 16.3 mn in 2023, while wages of private sector workers rose just 4.1% during the same period.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a look at why Egypt should double down on manufacturing solar panels.

Tags:

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Cabinet watch

Madbouly gets a mandate to form a new government

El Sisi calls for new government to help take Egypt to the “next phase”: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi instructed Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly to form a new government yesterday after Madbouly submitted his government’s resignation. “Today, I assigned Dr. Moustafa Madbouly to form a new government that includes the necessary expertise and competencies to manage the next phase in order to achieve the desired development in government performance and confront the challenges facing the state,” El Sisi said in a statement .

Cue the rumor mill: Apart from confirmation that Madbouly will once again be sitting at the head of the cabinet table, we’re yet to hear of who will be leaving or joining the new cabinet. Enterprise will be keenly watching to see if the new cabinet will bring back the former economy or investment ministries, to whom GAFI will report, as well as for word of who will head key business-sensitive portfolios, including the ministries of finance, planning, international cooperation, and other portfolios.

Expect policy stability: The next government’s priorities include promoting private sector growth, attracting local and foreign investment, and getting inflation under control, El Sisi said, per a statement from Ittihadeya. Cabinet will also prioritize human development with a focus on education, health, and political participation. The page-long statement also emphasized national security and fight against terrorism.

What’s next? All serving ministers continue in office until a new cabinet is put together. We’re yet to be given a date for when the new cabinet will take office, but Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 3:10) believes El Sisi will swear them in next Tuesday.

The new cabinet will then have to present its plan of action to the House of Representatives for approval. Well-connected MP and TV presenter Mostafa Bakry said the House will be called into an “urgent session” when Madbouly has his new ministerial lineup ready.

Data point: This is expected to be the fourth major shuffle led by Madbouly since being appointed prime minister in 2018, with the last shakeup in August 2022 seeing 13 new faces.

The foreign press also picked up the story, with Bloomberg calling the move “expected” following El Sisi’s re-election and Reuters highlighting the economy as a key file for the incoming cabinet.

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LEGISLATION WATCH

Egyptian MPs gave their final approval to next fiscal year’s budget

MPs pass next year’s budget: The House of Representatives yesterday gave its seal of approval to the FY 2024-2025 state budget and socioeconomic development plan. The budget has been at the house for a little over a month now, where the House Budget Committee and general assembly discussed and voted on it.

Not everyone was onboard: The budget and development plan were rejected by a number of MPs affiliated with the Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the Justice Party, as well as a number of independent MPs.

Remember: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait Planning Minister Hala El Said delivered the draft budget in late April to the House. MPs have been discussing it ever since.

No new taxes: “We are not seeking to impose new taxes, but we will be trying our best to widen the scope of the tax base through developing an electronic taxation system,” Maait said, reiterating statements made last week.

An overview of the budget: The government has penciled in growth of 4.2% for the coming fiscal year, up from an estimated 2.9% in FY 2023-2024. Headline inflation is expected to drop to an average of 17.9% over the next FY, down from a projected 35.7% this FY. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is expected to increase to 7.3% of the country’s GDP, up from 7.2% this year.

ICYMI: The state budget is a bit different this time around, with the issuing of the first PublicGovernment Budget. The new budget — which does not replace the state budget — shows the budgets of all the state’s economic bodies in addition to the state budget collated together.

What’s next? The budget will now be sent to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to ratify.

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Automotive

Auto sales recovered by around a third in April

Auto sales rebound after reaching multi-year low: Auto sales in April rose 35.1% m-o-m to reach 5.7k vehicles, according to figures from the Automotive Marketing Information Council (AMIC) seen by Enterprise. The uptick in sales comes following March’s 43% m-o-m drop in sales to 4.2k vehicles — the lowest number of auto sales we’ve seen since we started keeping track of auto sales in the country in January 2019.

The recovery was driven by an uptick in passenger car sales, which rose 65.5% m-o-m to 4.6k vehicles in April. Meanwhile, bus and truck sales were both down compared to the previous month — bus sales saw a 37% m-o-m decrease to 329 units, while truck sales were down 14.2% m-o-m to record 789 units.

Remember: Auto sales have been relatively volatile — but overall on the decline — for the last few years. Late 2023, auto sales were falling on the back of FX shortages limiting supply in the market and giving distributors leverage to hike prices as they pleased. But over the past few months demand has been fluctuating and in March sales fell in response to the float of the EGP, which had customers adopt a wait-and-see approach in hopes of further price reductions down the line.

On a yearly basis: Auto sales were up 11% from April 2023, driven by an 18.4% y-o-y increase in passenger car sales. Bus sales fell by 25.1% y-o-y while truck sales dipped by 4.4% compared to this time last year.

Always read the small print: AMIC figures reflect data contributed by member distributors, who include most, but not all, industry participants.

LOCAL LADA PRODUCTION RESUMING?

GV Investments to bring back made-in-Egypt Ladas: Home-grown investment group GV Investments will be producing some 50-70k Lada cars annually in its still-under-construction Lada assembly and production Tarboul plant starting next year, Trade Minister Ahmed Samir told Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti, calling it “one of the largest car assembly plants in Egypt.”

Remember: GV Investments’ automotive arm GV auto inkedan exclusive partnership with Lada Egypt in April, which gave GV Auto the rights to market and distribute Lada cars including five models that are yet to hit the Egyptian market.

We said goodbye to locally-assembled Lada cars in 2022: Al Amal Auto, the local agent of Lada and BYD vehicles suspended the assembly of the Lada Granta in August 2022 on the back of Western sanctions on Russia. Last year, Al Amal and Lada’s manufacturer, Russian carmaker AvtoVAZ, were looking to resume assembly of Lada cars in early 2024.

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PHARMA

Egyptian pharma firms receive new pricing guidelines that will open the way to price hikes up to 50%

Pharma firms begin receiving new pricing guidelines: Pharma companies have begun receiving new pricing guidelines from the Egyptian Drug Authority, the head of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce’s pharma division Ali Auf told Enterprise. The hikes will start with just one product for each company — namely their most profitable.

Expect to see price hikes ranging from 10-50%: Price hikes will vary depending on each company’s cost criteria, with the hikes expected to range from 10-50%. Meds for chronic conditions will see smaller increases than those for non-chronic diseases, Auf added.

You might be able to get your meds at the current price if you head to your local pharma quick? Price increases will only apply to newly-produced medication and will not include products that are already on the shelves, Auf added.

What’s next: The EDA will continue to review new pricing guidelines for the remaining pharma products submitted by each company, Auf said.

Proponents of the price hikes say higher prices will end shortages: Shortages of some meds in the Egyptian market — an all too familiar situation for many of us — will be resolved within the next ten days, Auf forecasted..

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

News of a new Egyptian cabinet took over the airwaves

All about the new cabinet: One topic echoed through the airwaves last night, the resignation of the cabinet and the formation of a new one, also led by Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly. We have the details of the story in the news well, above.

No surprise: Madbouly staying on as prime minister comes as no surprise, especially with the amount of murmurs we have heard about the matter before the official announcement yesterday, Al Shorouk Editor in Chief Emad El Din Hussein told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 40:06).

Adib is less than thrilled: “I had hoped that we’d see a new prime minister,” El Hekaya’s Amr Adib said (watch, runtime: 29:35), voicing his respect and appreciation for Madbouly, but explaining that he wanted to see a complete overhaul of the cabinet. “The people want to see new faces with fresh ideas,” he added.

What do we want from the new cabinet? The new government needs to implement a “real economic reform plan” based on clear goals that will impact the life of the average citizen, El Hadidi said. She added that she would like to see the new cabinet supporting the private sector, improving the investment climate, implementing structural reforms, and having a clear tax policy.

Who’s in and who’s out: No less than 12 of the country’s 32 ministers will be switched around, Hussein said, pointing to the ministers of supply, culture, environment, and electricity. He expects International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat to retain her position.

New governors too? We could see the country welcoming new governors as well, be it alongside the cabinet shuffle or shortly after it, Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa said (watch, runtime: 1:05)

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

State-owned Gypto Pharma signs strategic partnership with US-based Abbott

HEALTHCARE-

#1- To further the localization of drug manufacturing: State-owned medical city complex Gypto Pharma has inked a strategic partnership with US-based pharma and medical device manufacturer Abbott to locally manufacture six painkillers and antibiotics. Gypto expects to produce 95 new pharma products by the end of 2024, Gypto head Amr Mamdouh said.


#2- Local electro-medical and electronic equipment manufacturer BioBusiness has launched Egypt’s first production line for neonatal devices, supported with investments totalling some USD 10 mn, Al Borsa reported, citing company head Mostafa El Wakil. The devices will be half the price of their imported alternatives, but be of the same quality, El Wakil added.

AVIATION-

EgyptAir is getting a top-up to buy new planes: The Finance Ministry is working to secure EGP 20 bn in funding for national flag carrier EgyptAir to add new planes to its fleet and help it settle its mounting debt, writes Al Mal.

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PLANET FINANCE

Turkey’s inflation hits 75.5% in what is believed to be the peak before a slowdown

“The worst is over” for Turkey’s inflation: Turkey’s annual consumer price inflation rose to 75.5% in May — according to the Turkish Statistical Institute — in what economists expect to be the peak of a years-long cost-of-living crisis before prices start to cool. “The worst is over,” Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on X. “The transition period in the fight against inflation is complete and we are entering the disinflation process,” he added.

In detail: Headline inflation in May — which was up by 5.7 percentage points from a monthearlier — was driven primarily by steep annual price rises in education, housing, and restaurants. Monthly inflation climbed to 3.4% in May, up from 3.2% in April.

Despite the jubilant tone, inflation still came in higher than expected: A Reuters poll saw annual inflation peaking at 74.8% in May and monthly inflation registering 2.7-3.3%.

So where is inflation headed from here? Annual inflation will likely drop below 50% by the end of 3Q 2024, hit 33.2% in 12 months, and 21.3% in 24 months, Simsek said. Analysts polled by Reuters expect annual inflation to drop to 42.6% by the end of 2024.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets have started the day in the red, with only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucking the trend. There’s no clear trigger for the dip, which sees the Nikkei leading decliners at dispatch time this morning (-0.7%). Futures for major European benchmarks dipped overnight, while Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 futures were largely unchanged.

EGX30

26,834

-0.1% (YTD: +7.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.07

Sell 47.21

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.1

Sell 47.2

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

11,808

+1.6% (YTD: -1.3%)

ADX

8,918

+0.6% (YTD: -6.9%)

DFM

3,993

+0.4% (YTD: -1.6%)

S&P 500

5,283

+0.1% (YTD: +10.8%)

FTSE 100

8,263

-0.2% (YTD: +6.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,004

+0.4% (YTD: +10.7%)

Brent crude

USD 78.36

-3.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.77

+0.4%

Gold

USD 2,371

+0.1%

BTC

USD 69,090

+1.9% (YTD: +63.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.2 bn (34.1% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 7.8% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+10.7%), Ibn Sina Pharma (+5.8%), and Orascom Development Egypt (+5.4%).

In the red: Mopco (-3.5%), AMOC (-2.8%), and Beltone Holding (-2.7%).

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Going Green

Why should Egypt double down on manufacturing solar panels?

Growing demand for solar energy makes the localization of PV cells imminent: Local demand for solar power is growing as the government moves forward with its plan to phase out electricity subsidies — which is set to significantly raise the production costs for manufacturers — and the EU pushes its carbon border tax, CBAM, to clamp down on carbon-intensive imports. Both are prompting businesses to accelerate their transition to green energy and creating a need to localize the manufacturing of solar panels, which is yet to overcome a number of hurdles.

More companies are transitioning to green energy: GB Corp unveiled an ambitious plan in 2023 — when it rebranded from GB Auto — to implement solar power plants at all its factories to supply around 40% of their electricity needs by 2024. Stare-run Egyptalum is seeking to implement a 1 GW solar power plant to power its aluminum complex in Qena’s Nagaa Hammadi. In addition, the local bus manufacturer MCV is looking to increase its solar power plant capacity by 7.5 MW, sources in the renewables sector told us.

The manufacturing sector is not the only one in the race: While there is a high demand for solar power projects from energy-intensive sectors such as cement and fertilizer producers, the hospitality sector is also doubling down on increasing its reliance on solar energy, Romany Hakeem, chairman of solar panel installation company BeNeshty Solar and deputy chairman of the Sustainable Energy Development Association (SEDA), told Enterprise.

Fostering the localization of solar panels production would bring down costs: Some 70% of the costs of solar power plants are denominated in USD due to the import of solar panels, Hakeem told us, adding that some of the solar companies have opted to locally assemble solar panels to cut down the installation costs.

A potential export market: The local assembly of solar panels could also open the doors for exports as Hakeem told us that some of the locally-assembled panels are being exported to markets like Morocco.

Incentives to localize solar panels production: Hakeem stressed that the manufacturing of solar panels would greatly benefit from the introduction of incentives by the government especially as it pushes for the implementation of solar power projects. He also called for waiving customs tariffs and VAT on renewables equipment imports — a demand that is often made by renewables industry players (here and here). Moreover, he called for including renewable energy investors in the government’s green hydrogen incentives package, which was ratified by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi earlier this year.

ICYMI: The government launched a website earlier this year to streamline the installation of solar panels for households and companies in a bid to fast-track its goal of increasing the share of renewables in the country’s energy mix as it eyes generating 42% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

Dive deeper: We dedicated a Going Green earlier this year to the platform.

Is the gov’t already on track to manufacture solar panels at home? The government plans to build a USD 172 mn factory to produce crystalline silicon — the main component used to manufacture solar panels — as part of the silicon manufacturing complex it is establishing in New Alamein city under a public-private partnership announced last year. The crystalline silicon factory will make use of Egypt’s abundant resources of silica sand, also known as quartz; the silicon dioxide-rich sand is the raw material for producing crystalline silicon.

Gov’t seeks investments in crystalline silicon manufacturing: The government is currently in talks with an international firm to sway it into investing in producing crystalline silicon amid ongoing efforts to attract foreign investments to the industry, a source at the Petroleum Ministry told us.

Lack of investments has pushed Egypt to export its precious quartz: Despite an abundance of silica sand in Egypt, the country has traditionally opted to export the valuable mineral instead of utilizing it in the production of solar panels, as the latter is a costly endeavor that could only be executed via soft development financing or big foreign investments, Ahmed Badra, CEO of renewable energy player Red Sea Green Solutions, told Enterprise.

Ramping up local production to trim imports: The state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization has solar panel production facilities with a total capacity of 50 MW, which could be gradually increased to catch up with the rising local demand, currently stands at 3 GW, and reduce import bills, Badra told us. He also suggested that the organization could upgrade its production lines to produce higher-output solar panels than the 400-watt panels it currently produces. Egypt usually imports 700-750-watt panels, according to Badra.

Could China help us manufacture solar panels? President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping discussed potential cooperation in the manufacturing of solar panels and EVs — two products that China is leading the way in terms of affordability and the tech behind them — during El Sisi’s time in China last week.


Your top green economy stories for the week:

  • A EGP 495 mn solid waste treatment plant coming to Giza: The government has signed contracts to build a EGP 495 mn solid waste treatment plant in the Shabramant area in Giza, which will be able to process 640 tons of waste a day. (Statement)
  • Another green methanol facility in the works? ADQ’s AD Ports has inked an MoU with Egyptian shipping giant Transmar and Orascom Construction to explore the possibility of setting up a green methanol storage and export facility targeting maritime transport.
  • Green funding could be coming our way: The EU and Egypt are expected to sign a EUR 35 mn financing agreement next month — part of a wider EUR 7.4 bn package — to fund renewable projects.

2024

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

29-30 June (Saturday-Sunday): EU-Egypt Investment Conference.

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

16-17 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Egypt Mining Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday – Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo, Egypt.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

April 2024: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will visit Turkey.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

1Q 2024: The government is set to finalize the sale of the Gabal El Zeit wind farm.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

March 2024: The USD 2.7 bn MIDOR Refinery is set to begin full operations.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

Mid-year: The fifth Japan-Arab Economic Forum.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

End of 2024: Shalateen Mining Company to launch a gold exploration bid in the Eastern Desert.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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