Lots of energy news from day one of the Energy Show

Tuesday, 18 Feb 2025

Lots of energy news from day one of the Energy Show

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Today at a glance

Energy

Egypt is getting Cypriot gas for liquidation and re-export.

Energy

KSA’s Acwa Power to set up 2 GW wind farm in South Hurghada.

Construction

Organi Group inks USD 5 bn strategic partnership with China’s CSCEC.

Healthcare

Italy’s San Donato Group will build a USD 100 mn hospital and university in Egypt.

Also on our Radar

Hisense, FBB break ground on USD 38 mn factory.

PLANET FINANCE

Bondholders push back against the IMF’s Ethiopia debt assessment.

Going Green

Egyptian agribusinesses have to adapt to a warmer, drier world.

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt wants to up its imports of Israeli gas

Good morning, folks. We have an issue busy with energy news from day one of the Egypt Energy Show and we don’t expect the flow of news to slow down with the event running until tomorrow.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- EGX listing for all? The EGX and the Madbouly government are in talks over listing all of the companies earmarked for privatization on the EGX in the lead up to selling them off to strategic investors, EGX boss Ahmed El Sheikh told Zawya, adding that the bourse is looking into the legislative amendments needed to facilitate the move.

Pulse check on the privatization program: The Madbouly government is looking to sell stakes in ten state-owned companies this year via private placements to strategic investors and stake sales on the EGX.

#2- Egypt is looking to up its imports of Israeli gas by 58% by the middle of 2025, Asharq Business reports, citing unnamed government officials. The planned increase would take daily imports of Israeli gas to 1.5 bn cubic feet per day (cf/d) — equivalent to around a quarter of domestic demand.

The increase in Egypt-bound gas will follow developments of Chevron’s Tamar gas field, which will reportedly result in an uptick of output to Egypt by June. The move will eventually bring the field’s production capacity up to 1.6 bn cf/d from 1 bn cf/d currently.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day two of the Egypt Energy Show, with the nation’s capital hosting private and public energy players from across the globe at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The three-day event, which comes under the theme of Building a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future, brings together 47k visitors, features over 300 speakers, and hosts more than 500 participating companies.

The event kicked off yesterday with a plenty of important energy announcements — Egypt will liquify and re-export Cypriot natural gas under two agreements inked between the two sides yesterday and Saudi renewables giant Acwa Power is setting up a 2 GW wind farm in South Hurghada.

** We’ve got the full rundown in the newswell, below.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 23°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more or less the same in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 11°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday to review interest rates. The CBE left rates unchanged when it last met in December — marking the sixth consecutive meeting to keep rates steady — but most analysts see the central bank starting to cut rates sometime this quarter.

What to expect? Analysts are divided on which way the MPC could lean when it meets, according to our customary interest rate poll.

#2- Exploring business potential between Egypt and Switzerland: The Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle and Kickstart Innovation are hosting a series of online events on 20 February under the theme Innovate Together: Business Opportunities Between Egypt and Switzerland. The events aim to strengthen business ties between the two nations, bringing together startups, investors, and public and private players.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Anxiety and anticipation continue on the international landscape this morning, as intricate negotiations over Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon continue to dominate headlines.

Ukraine summit stokes EU disagreements: The Paris-hosted crisis meeting saw European leaders clash over sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, a suggestion put forward by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer earlier. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the discussion “an incomprehensible debate at the wrong time”, while Italian PM Georgia Meloni doubted the measure’s effectiveness.

EU leaders are scrambling to get on the Ukraine peace train, as senior US and Russian officials are reportedly set to meet in Riyadh today to lay the groundwork for a Trump-Putin summit aimed at ending the Ukraine war, with meetings potentially taking place as early as this month. (FT | Axios)

MEANWHILE- US, China butt heads over Taiwan: “We do not support Taiwan independence,” said a phrase removed from the US State Department website earlier this week in a claimed “routine” update. The removal elicited a rebuke from Beijing, which called it a “serious regression” on the issue, urging the US to “immediately correct its mistakes” or risk “further serious damage.” (Semafor | CNN)

CLOSER TO HOME- Israel will remain in five “strategic” spots inside Lebanon, in what Beirut deems a violation of the withdrawal mandated by the ceasefire agreement, due today. Israel, on the other hand, claims truce commitments including disarming Hezbollah were not fulfilled. (Bloomberg)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at the challenges facing Egypt’s agriculture sector — from climate change and water scarcity to land shortages.

Tags:

oil and gas What We're Tracking Today

Somabay Welcomes World Aquatics Open Water World Cup for the Third Year

Somabay proudly hosts the World Aquatics Open Water World Cup for the third consecutive year, reinforcing its status as a top watersports destination. The training camp will run from 18-22 February at Somabay’s state-of-the-art OneFlow Aquatics Centre, preparing athletes from 21 countries for the competition. From 21-22 February, they will compete in three races, further cementing Somabay’s appeal for international swimming events.

Energy

Egypt is getting Cypriot gas for liquidation and re-export

Egypt to liquify and re-export Cypriot gas: The Oil Ministry yesterday inked two agreements with Cyprus to liquify and re-export Cypriot natural gas on the sidelines of the first day of the Egypt Energy Show, according to a statement. The agreements come as part of the government’s push to return Egypt to its status as a net LNG exporter.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The agreements involve Cyprus’ Aphrodite and Cronos fields and will see Cyprus ship natural gas from its offshore fields to be liquefied in facilities in Idku and Damietta before being re-exported to foreign markets.

The plan for the Aphrodite field: The previously-approved de velopment and production plan for Aphrodite includes a floating production unit within Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone and a pipeline to transport gas to Egypt, according to a press release (pdf) from Chevron, which holds a 35% stake in the gas field. Shell holds another 35%, while Israel’s NewMed Energy holds the remaining 30% — the field holds an estimated 3.5 tn cubic feet of gas.

“[The Aphrodite field] is a significant resource for Cyprus and an important part of Chevron’s Eastern Mediterranean portfolio as well as providing natural gas supplies to Egypt to help meet the country’s growing energy demand,” VP of international exploration and production at Chevron Frank Cassulo said.

The plan for the Cronos field: Gas from the field will be re-exported to European markets after being processed in Zohr facilities and liquified in Damietta, Eni said in a statement. Eni and TotalEnergies each have a 50% interest in the field, which is estimated to hold over 3 tn cubic feet of gas.

“This project leverages Egypt’s existing infrastructure, including export facilities, which are a key enabler for developments in the Region. Egypt and Cyprus reaffirm their roles in the emerging energy hub of the Eastern Mediterranean, which is set to play an increasing role in the global gas supply in the near future,” Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said.

A full house: The agreements were signed in the presence of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, his Cypriot counterpart Nikos Christodoulides, Oil Minister Karim Badawi, Cyprus’ Energy Minister Giorgos Papanastasiou, as well officials from Eni and Chevron.

REMEMBER- We first got word last month that the fields' joint owners were expected to ink agreements for gas liquefaction and re-export with the Madbouly government. At the time, reports indicated that gas coming from the Cronos deposit was expected to be exported, while gas coming from the Aphrodite field could be used to feed local demand or be exported — we are yet to find out where the gas from the Aphrodite field will end up.

And more to come: The two sides will continue discussions to bring more Cypriot gas to Egypt.

The news received attention from: Bloomberg, Reuters, the AP, and The National.

Tags:

Chevron energy Eni oil and gas Oil Ministry

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Energy

KSA’s Acwa Power has another mega wind farm brewing

Another mega wind farm incoming: Saudi renewables giant Acwa Power is setting up a 2 GW wind farm in South Hurghada with investments of SAR 8.6 bn (c. USD 2.3 bn), Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said during the first day of the Egypt Energy Show. The company inked a power purchase agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company for the project, he added.

Acwa has another big wind farm in the works: Acwa Power and energy and infrastructure leader Hassan Allam Utilities are setting up a USD 1.2 bn, 1.1 GW wind farm in the Gulf of Suez. The project reached financial close earlier this year and is expected to kick off commercial operations in 2Q 2027.

PLUS- Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed an executive plan for cooperation in energy efficiency, which should see the two sides set up a program for energy efficiency, look into setting up a joint entity to implement energy efficiency projects, and exchange expertise in the field, according to statements from the Oil Ministry and the Saudi Energy Ministry.

ALSO FROM THE ENERGY SHOW- El Sisi and Apache head talk Egypt expansion: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi sat dow n with Apache CEO John Chistmann to discuss the company’s expansion in Egypt, with El Sisi emphasizing the need to strengthen Apache’s investments to “maximize the country’s resources.”

REMEMBER- Apache, Egypt’s largest oil producer, reportedly plans to ramp up its daily natural gas production in Egypt to 500 mn cubic feet per day from a current 450 mn cubic feet by the end of fiscal year 2024-25. It also recently signed up for four additional Western Desert blocks, representing a 30% increase to the company’s overall concessions in Egypt.

Tags:

ACWA Power energy renewables wind power

Construction

Organi Group inks strategic partnership with China’s CSCEC

Organi Group, CSCEC eye USD 5 bn worth of contracts: Egypt’s Organi Group inked a strategic partnership with China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) to set up construction and infrastructure projects in Egypt and abroad, the news came during a presser attended by EnterpriseAM yesterday. The two sides aim to secure contracts worth USD 5 bn in Egypt and Libya, with plans to enter the Saudi and Emirati markets, Organi Group CEO Essam Al Organi said.

The timeline: The two sides plan to set up USD 500 mn worth of projects over the coming year and push that figure to USD 5 bn over the next three years.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The strategic partners want to play a part in the construction of Ras El Hekma: The partners want to work with Modon Holding — the lead developer for the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma project — on the project’s construction, the CEO said, adding that the companies hope to get started on the project late 2025 or early next year. .

Organi adds Bianchi to its portfolio: The company has acquired the Bianchi project in the North Coast and has spent some EGP 1 bn on its first phase of development, Al Organi said. The first phase of development is nearing completion and phases two and three will soon kick off, he added.

Organi wants to take part in Libya’s reconstruction: The two partners are looking to invest USD 2 bn in Libya’s reconstruction, Al Oragni told Al Borsa. Some 88 local construction players are currently taking part in Libya’s construction and there’s a plan for more to join to push the figure to 150. The company and its Chinese partner are also looking to take part in the reconstruction of Gaza, the first phase of which is expected to cost some USD 50 bn.

Also in the pipeline: The group, along with CSCEC, is planning to expand the size of its investments in the industrial sector to USD 1 bn over the next decade, Al Organi said, naming construction- and infrastructure-related industries as priority sectors.

Organi Group subsidiary Neom is also looking to expand regionally, with plans to step into Chad, Zambia, and Congo, chairman Assem El Gazzar told Asharq Business. And Organi Group’s construction arm Abnaa Sinai is planning a real estate project in Saudi Arabia soon, Al Oragni told Asharq Business, adding that the company has already acquired the land plot for the project.

Tags:

China State Construction Engineering Corporation construction Organi Group

Healthcare

Italy’s San Donato Group will build a USD 100 mn hospital and university in Egypt

Italian leading hospital group San Donato Group wants to set up a USD 100 mn hospital and an international medicine-focused university, this came during a meeting between representatives from the group and government officials including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

About the hospital: The 140-bed hospital will be set up in New Cairo and will be equipped with the latest tech and offer advanced medical services on par with global standards, helping Egypt in its efforts to become a medical tourism destination.

A big investment: The USD 100 mn investment earmarked for the project only covers its first phase, according to the statement. The group also has a plan to double this investment as it expands nationwide.

Where do things stand? The group is currently setting up the company under which the hospital will be launched and is looking into the mechanism for employing the specialists needed.

Remember: Egypt has been trying to position itself as a medical tourism hub to attract FDI and to open fresh FX revenue streams from patients from Africa, the Middle East, and Europe coming here for treatment on the back of our talented and well-trained medical staff and the competitive price point Egyptian hospitals can offer.

What about the university? The group is also planning to launch an international university that offers healthcare-related programs and specializations. It is currently in talks with the Madbouly government over land allocation for the project — Madbouly suggested the group set up the university in the new capital’s Knowledge City.

To ensure it all goes smoothly: Madbouly directed the health and investment ministers to set up a task force to help out with the technical and legislative aspects of setting up a hospital in efforts to fast-track the project.

Tags:

healthcare investment watch Italy

Scope Properties will set up two hotels on Mokattam Corniche with investments of USD 190 mn, Scope Properties Managing Director Alaa Khedr told Asharq Business. Under the plan, the subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Al Swailem Holding Group will build a USD 120 mn 250-key hotel and another USD 60 mn 150-key hotel. Scope also just launched an EGP 5 bn commercial project in Mokattam called A40 that will house retail and administrative units as well as clinic units, Al Mal reports.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The investments are part of a wider plan to develop the Mokattam Corniche, which will see the Saudi developer partner with state-owned El Nasr Housing and Development to carry out the project under an agreement inked in 2022. Al Swailem will contribute half of the project’s price tag, and the other half will come in the form of financing facilities from Saudi EXIM Bank, Khedr said. The project is expected to generate some EGP 125 bn in revenues over nine years, El Nasr’s CEO Mohamed Abdel Maksoud told Asharq Business.

AND- Abu Dhabi Tourism Investment Company (ADTIC) signed an agreement with French hospitality group Accor to manage and operate the Mercure Hurghada Resort following its development and rebrand, Hapi Journal reports, citing ADTIC CEO Yahia Kotub. The Egypt-focussed company, which is 84% owned by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, will invest EGP 2.5 bn to renovate the Mercure Hurghada hotel and rebrand it under the Movenpick brand.

The timeline: The project to develop the 469-key Hurghada hotel will kick off in 2H 2025, and the first phase is expected to be ready by March 2026. When the development plan was first unveiled early last year, Kotub said that the firm would start working on the project in April 2024.

PLUS- Local players are also part of this investment rush: Real estate developer Madaar will set up an EGP 30 bn project in New Sphinx City, CEO Ahmed Ehab told Al Borsa, adding that the project will house residential units as well as commercial spaces and hotels. The company is eyeing EGP 50 bn in sales from the project and will disclose the final details in 2Q 2025 once the necessary licenses are secured.

Tags:

Abu Dhabi Tourism Investment Company hospitality

Startup watch

Egyptian queue management solution provider Qme closes USD 3 mn seed round

Cairo-based startup Qme closed a USD 3 mn seed round led by UAE-based technology company Ahoy and GCC angel investors, the company said in a statement (pdf). Ahoy CEO Jamil Shinawi will also join the startup’s advisory committee.

Qme? The local startup bills itself as Africa’s first “AI-based digital infrastructure platform integrating booking, queuing, analytics, and payment solutions.” Its stated mission is to cut down the six months that it says everyone spends in queues over their lifetimes. The company has so far clocked in over 100k customers since its commercial launch in 4Q 2023 and claims that it has reduced waiting times from 116 minutes to only 14 minutes.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What’s the money for? The fresh funds will go toward developing the tech it uses, expand its reach, and build partnerships. The startup's partnership with Ahoy will also allow it to “gain access to cutting-edge technology and extensive market expertise.”

What they said: “Our partnership with Ahoy is a major milestone, as it strengthens our ability to optimize movement in dynamic, real-world scenarios while transforming customer experiences. Ahoy’s operational excellence and robust tech stack are invaluable as we scale in vibrant markets,” CEO and Co-Founder Maged Negm said.

Tags:

Startup watch startups venture capital

Also on our Radar

Hisense, FBB break ground on USD 38 mn factory in Egypt

MANUFACTURING-

Breaking ground on Hisense’s manufacturing facility: Chinese electronics and household appliance manufacturer Hisense and UAE’s FBB Tech began construction of their USD 38 mn new electronic devices manufacturing facility in the China-Egypt Teda trade zone in Ain Sokhna, according to a statement. We first heard about the project back in August of last year, when it was one of three joint projects announced by the Emirati side.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: The project aims to produce 1 mn units annually, with 30% of its output allocated for the local market and 70% set to be exported to Europe and North and East Africa.

ENERGY-

Production from Eni’s Noor field set to go live by mid-2026: Italian energy player Eni plans to begin producing 100 mn cubic feet per day (cf/d) of gas from its Noor field off Egypt’s northern coast by mid-2026, two unnamed government officials told Asharq Business. Eni is also planning to invest USD 80 mn to drill a new well in the field, with stakeholders set to conduct further seismic surveys later this year to further elucidate the size of gas reserves in the area. Eni holds a 40% stake in the field, BP a 25% stake, Mubadala Energy a 20% stake, and Tharwa Petroleum Company a 15% stake.

ICYMI- Eni resumed drilling operations at the Zohr gas field — Egypt’s largest and the Mediterranean's largest-ever find — late last month after the Saipem drillship arrived in Egyptian waters.

OUTSOURCING-

Global customer service giant TTEC expanded its Egypt presence with a new site in Maadi Technology Park, the company said in a statement. The expansion comes after only a year since the American company first set up shop in the country.

“Egypt's multilingual workforce and strategic location make it an ideal hub for delivering world-class, AI-enhanced customer experience solutions worldwide,” said TTEC Engage President John Abou. TTEC is not alone in its recent interest in the country’s potential as an outsourcing hub, with the number of outsourcing companies operating out of Egypt increasing 181.3% over the last three years.

ICYMI- TTEC was among seven companies that received the green light from the government to establish and operate call centers using voice over internet protocol — known in the industry as VoIP — and other tools.

Tags:

ALSO ON OUR RADAR energy Eni Manufacturing oil and gas outsourcing

PLANET FINANCE

Bondholders push back against the IMF’s Ethiopia debt assessment

Is the IMF undermining Ethiopia’s creditors in negotiations over the country’s defaulted USD bond? A group of investors holding Ethiopia’s defaulted USD 1 bn bond is accusing the IMF of downplaying the country’s economic recovery as a means to force the country’s creditors to offer Ethiopia a larger haircut on its debt, the Financial Times and Reuters report. The investors argue that a rise in gold and coffee exports has significantly strengthened Ethiopia’s financial position, making the IMF’s assessment of the country’s debt outlook unnecessarily pessimistic.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

IN CONTEXT- Ethiopia went into default in December 2023 after skipping a USD 33 mn coupon payment on its only international government bond, which came amid a period of intense financial strain related to the country’s two-year civil war that ended in 2022 and the Covid pandemic. The country received a USD 3.4 bn IMF bailout in July 2024 to help with its default, with the key stipulations that the country liberalize its exchange rates and reduce its debt levels in line with its exports.

The IMF’s export estimates lie at the core of the current dispute: The bondholder committee — which represents investors holding some 40% of the defaulted USD bonds — says the IMF has “significantly undervalued” Ethiopia’s export rebound following the country’s currency devaluation last year. The Fund’s economic forecasts, they argue, “artificially imply a solvency issue which requires Ethiopia to seek greater concessions from its stakeholders in order to meet the IMF’s lending criteria,” essentially forcing lenders to accept a haircut on their payout.

It’s true that Ethiopia’s export numbers show signs of a recovery: Ethiopia’s exports more than doubled in 2H 2024 after the devaluation, reaching USD 3 bn off the back of a 60% rise in coffee exports to nearly USD 1 bn and a 700% jump in gold exports to USD 1.3 bn. Meanwhile, imports dipped slightly to USD 8.6 bn over the same period.

Still, the IMF has concerns about long-term debt sustainability: IMF staff have acknowledged that exports are ticking up, but insist that medium- to long-term growth will remain at 9-10% of GDP, leaving Ethiopia’s debt still “unsustainable and in distress,” according to a January press release (pdf). Because the IMF’s USD 3.4 bn bailout for Ethiopia requires the government to cut debts relative to exports, slower estimated export growth has provided the Ethiopian government a rationale to ask creditors to take larger losses on its defaulted bonds.

Ethiopia’s creditors, for their part, are refusing to take a haircut on the country’s debt. Last year, bondholders rejected the Ethiopian government’s offer to take an 18% haircut on its outstanding debt, arguing that the country's recovery didn’t warrant such a deep loss. However, debt advocacy groups — including Debt Justice, the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute, and the African Forum and Network on Debt and Development — argue that bondholders turned down an “extremely generous” offer that would have still yielded returns of about a third on the bondholder’s investment.

The clash over Ethiopia’s debt highlights a growing divide in resolving sovereign defaults, with investors pushing back against the IMF’s influence on restructuring efforts from Sri Lanka to Zambia, the salmon-backed paper highlighted. While the Fund doesn’t involve itself in debt restructuring negotiations directly, its economic forecasts set their tone, shaping creditor expectations and — investors argue — tilting the balance toward deeper writedowns.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning — Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.4% and the Hang Send is looking at gains of 1.0%, meanwhile the Shanghai Composite is down 0.3% and the Kospi is down 0.1%.

EGX30	30,437	0.0% (YTD: +2.3%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.54	Sell 50.68
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.56	Sell 50.66
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	12,266	-0.9% (YTD: +1.9%)
ADX	9,557	-0.7% (YTD: +1.5%)
DFM	5,383	+0.4% (YTD: +4.4%)
S&P 500	6,115	0.0% (YTD: +4.0%)
FTSE 100	8,768	+0.4% (YTD: +7.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,520	+0.5% (YTD: +12.7%)
Brent crude	USD 75.28	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.60	-3.3%
Gold	USD 2,911	+0.4%
BTC	USD 96,129	-1.1% (YTD: +2.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 was essentially flat at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.8 bn (5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 2.3% YTD.

In the green: Beltone Holding (+7.3%), GB Corp (+5.1%), and ADIB (+4.3%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-2.9%), Fawry (-2.7%), and Sidpec (-1.8%).

Tags:

Financial Markets Planet Finance

Our weekly deep dive into the green economy and ESG issue in Egypt.

Published every Tuesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read going Green

Going Green

Egyptian agribusinesses have to adapt to a warmer, drier world

Egypt’s agricultural sector is and will continue to face unprecedented challenges as climate change, water scarcity, and land shortages threaten production and profitability, according to a recent report (pdf) on the country’s agribusiness sector from Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI.

AGRIBUSINESSES ARE FACING CHALLENGES ON MULTIPLE FRONTS-

A warming climate is taking its toll on Egyptian agriculture: Egypt is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with “increased temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns and the potential for more frequent extreme weather events, [posing] a significant long-term risk to Egyptian grain production.” The report warns that heat stress is already leading to lower yields for key crops like wheat and rice. The increased frequency of droughts and heatwaves is also expected to accelerate desertification, further reducing the amount of arable land available for cultivation.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Water scarcity is also a looming crisis for Egyptian farmers: Egypt’s reliance on irrigation-intensive farming makes water scarcity one of the biggest threats to its agricultural sector. The country already ranks among the most water-stressed nations globally, with annual per capita water availability standing at just 560 cubic meters — well below the UN’s 1k cubic meter threshold for water stress. In 2018, the country’s total freshwater resources “stood at 64.2 bn cubic metres, which implies a water stress ratio of 116.2%,” the report warns. The UN had foresaw that “Egypt could be approaching an ‘absolute water crisis’ by as early as 2025,” the report reads. “Pressures on water supplies and land resources are set to become more acute in Egypt through the medium term, which will require a concerted management effort if domestic production is not to fall,” the report warns

REMEMBER- Egypt faces an annual water deficit of around 7 bn cubic meters and could see its water resources run out in 2025. By 2030, Egypt is expected to import more freshwater — through virtual water trade — than the volume of locally supplied water from the Nile.

GERD remains a key factor in Egypt’s water security: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) continues to cast uncertainty over Egypt’s future water supply, with the report warning that Ethiopia’s ongoing filling of the dam, “the pace of the fill, as well as the frequency of subsequent refills, will be a critical determinant of the impact of the GERD on Egyptian water supplies.” This would have profound implications for irrigation, potentially leading to lower yields, particularly for water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane. The Madbouly government's efforts to mitigate the impact feature investments in modern irrigation techniques and water recycling initiatives, but concerns remain over the long-term stability of the country’s agricultural output, according to the report.

The bigger fear is “the impact of filling the dam in the wake of a drought,” the report warns. The government had relied on the High Dam water reservoir “to make up for the reduced Nile River flow but this represents a limited, unsustainable solution to reduced flow rate.”

REFRESHER- Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have been unable to agree on how to divvy out the Nile’s water resources following the construction of the USD 4.6 bn dam, which Egypt says presents an existential threat to its water security. Central to the dispute is the timetable for filling the GERD’s reservoir and how much water Ethiopia will release as the dam becomes operational. Ethiopia has been unilaterally filling the reservoir over the past three years without a binding agreement, angering Cairo which in 2021 pulled out of African Union-led negotiations.

Land scarcity is another point of concern for the sector: The expansion of urban areas and population growth on the expanse of the country’s arable lands are further straining Egypt’s agricultural resources. Most of Egypt’s lands can’t be cultivated, and the few arable lands we have are mainly dependent on the Nile as a water resource. The report warns that efforts to ramp up land reclamation will clash against “population growth and urbanisation.” It will also cause other unwanted outcomes, “related to water use, soil degradation and desertification.”

Existing arable lands are also at risk: BMI also warns that “the failure to generate sustained, meaningful yield improvements represents a severe challenge to structural output growth over the medium term,” with over-application of nitrogen-based fertilizers worsening soil conditions of arable lands, rather than improving them.

** We dove into the details and the causes leading to irreversible soil degradation in a previous Going Green.

This all comes as Egypt is trying to reduce its reliance on food imports: Egypt’s push for food self-sufficiency faces major obstacles, particularly given its heavy dependence on imports for staples like wheat. The report indicates that Egypt imported 12 mn tons of wheat in 2023, making it the world’s largest wheat importer. The float of the EGP last year has further driven up food import costs, compounding inflationary pressures and increasing food insecurity risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has also disrupted global grain supply chains, underscoring the vulnerabilities of Egypt’s reliance on imported foodstuffs.

SOME CROPS AND AGRIBUSINESSES WILL BE AFFECTED MORE THAN OTHERS-

Climate change is already slashing the yields of some crops: The report highlights that key commodities such as wheat, rice, and maize are already experiencing declining yields, while more extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts could exacerbate the problem. Higher temperatures are expected to shorten growing seasons, further reducing output and placing additional strain on Egypt’s food security. The country’s reliance on staple crops makes this an even more pressing issue. “We expect output growth for key cereals to remain subdued over the medium term,” BMI notes, citing climate-related disruptions as a leading factor.

Wheat and rice production projections show mixed results: BMI forecasts that Egypt’s wheat production will grow modestly to 9.2 mn tons in 2024-25, narrowing the wheat production deficit from 11.63 mn tons in 2023-24 to 11.51 mn tons. “We have revised down our forecast for Egyptian corn production in 2024-25 from 7.65 mn tons to 7.2 mn tons due to above-average temperatures during the growing phase,” BMI notes, citing a projected domestic corn deficit of 8.4 mn tons — the widest in three seasons. Meanwhile, rice production is expected to hit 3.9 mn tons in 2024-25, but the government’s plans to limit water use could see rice output drop significantly in 2025-26. “The prospect of such a course of action poses a major downside risk to rice production in Egypt,” the report warns.

Sugar faces mounting challenges: Egypt’s sugar sector is under pressure, with BMI noting that “sugar self-sufficiency in Egypt fell from 83.1% in 2022-23 to an estimated 72.8% in the now complete 2023-24 season.” This decline was driven by lower-than-expected production and resilient domestic consumption, which rose to a record level despite high prices. The sugar deficit widened to nearly 1 mn tons in 2023-24 — its largest in over a decade. Looking ahead, “the share of total sugar production accounted for by sugar beet will continue to rise, as it is a less water-sensitive crop than sugarcane,” BMI states. However, water scarcity remains the primary risk to the sector. The report projects a 2.9% increase in sugar production in 2024-25, but overall self-sufficiency is expected to remain below historical averages.

Dairy and livestock sectors struggle with supply chain disruptions: BMI expects Egypt’s dairy sector to remain under pressure as local production struggles to keep pace with demand.

“Milk production growth in Egypt will ease to 0.5% in 2025, with total output expected to increase from 5.15 mn tons to 5.17 mn tons, its highest value since 2021,” the report states. Meanwhile, demand is set to hit a record 5.01 mn tons in 2025, further tightening supply. Egypt’s beef production is forecast to reach a 10-year high of 455k tons in 2025, though demand will continue to outstrip supply. Meanwhile, “Egyptian poultry production is expected to increase by 4.5% to 2.09 mn tons in 2025, its highest level since 2021,” but self-sufficiency is set to decline to 93.8%, the lowest since 2017.

Tags:

agriculture Climate climate change going green water

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18 February (Tuesday): Government to publish trade balance figures.

18-19 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): German-Egyptian Joint Economic Committee meetings, Cairo, Egypt

20 February (Thursday): The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to decide interest rates.

20 February (Thursday): The Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle and Kickstart Innovation are hosting Innovate Together: Business Opportunities Between Egypt and Switzerland

21-23 February ( Friday-Sunday): The First Arab Fraud Combating Summit.

BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected.

Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn.

Subscription period for Your Home in Egypt initiative opens.

MARCH

3 March (Monday): Central bank to publish foreign reserve data for February.

4 March (Tuesday): S&P Global to release Egypt’s PMI figures for March.

10 March (Monday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for February.

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer.

Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm.

Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units.

Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025.

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions.

APRIL

10 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for March.

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit launches 9th edition, Red Sea

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

MAY

10 May (Saturday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for April.

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

10 June (Tuesday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for May.

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

25 December 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December 2025: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports' Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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