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LNG supplies secured

1

What We're Tracking Today

IMF expects the economy to have grown 4.0% last FY

Good morning, all. We have another busy issue for you this morning, led by the latest on the government’s efforts to keep the lights on all summer long (and beyond) and so much investment news — the state’s ESIIC is looking to set up a USD 400 mn bioethanol plant that will run on sugarcane waste, Chinese smartphone maker Infinix is keeping our smartphone localization dreams alive with the promise to set up its third factory in Egypt next year, and search fund investment firm Moonbase Capital will open up an Egypt office.

The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting today, which analysts expect will see the Fed stay the course and hold rates steady despite continued pressure from President Donald Trump. The Fed is broadly expected to gradually resume its monetary easing cycle in September.

THE HOMETOWN ANGLE- The Fed meeting comes nearly a full month before the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee has its next meeting on 28 August. Regardless of the timing, the Fed’s decisions no longer have as much impact on the CBE’s monetary policy decisions due to Egypt’s unusually high real interest rate, Al Ahly Pharos’ Head of Research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. The CBE has room to cut interest rates by 4 percentage points before the end of the year, even if the Fed keeps rates on hold, Genena said.

REMEMBER- The CBE decided to leave interest rates unchanged in its fourth meeting in July. The move marks a halt in the MPC’s easing cycle, after it cut rates by 225 bps in April and 100 bps in May.

We could, however, be impacted by a combination of the Fed’s monetary policy and Trump’s tariff policies moving forward. A rate cut in the US would likely weaken the USD, which could help improve local inflation dynamics, although it wouldn’t address our structural trade deficit problems, Zilla Capital Head of Research Aya Zoheir told us. The best-case — but unlikely — scenario is that Trump takes a more “rational” stance on tariffs, while the Fed cuts interest rates by a total of 50 bps by the end of the year, Zoheir said. On the flipside, things could take a turn for the worse if Trump escalates his conflict with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which would trigger volatility in global markets and potentially drive portfolio investments out of Egypt. That scenario would bring the EGP under further pressure and fuel inflation, Zoheir added.

WORTH NOTING- The EGP continued to strengthen against the greenback yesterday — the USD was changing hands at EGP 48.75-48.62 at the end of yesterday’s trading.


Mark your calendar for the 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum, our flagship forum and part of our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings. Tap to register your interest to attend. Want to partner with us? Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at mtaalab@enterpriseadvisory.com to explore sponsorship opportunities.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is getting a little break from the extreme heat today, with the mercury set to peak at 35°C before cooling down to a sensible 26°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C and a low of 24°C.

GDP WATCH-

IMF revises up FY 2024-2025 growth estimate: The IMF now expects Egypt’s economy to have grown 4.0% in the fiscal year that ended in June — up from its April estimate of 3.8%, according to the fund’s July update to its World Economic Outlook (pdf). However, the fund trimmed its FY 2025-2026 forecast to 4.1%, down from 4.3% in April. While the report didn’t offer commentary on Egypt, the global revisions were attributed to front-loading ahead of tariffs, looser financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major economies.

What about the global picture? We dive deeper into the WOE update in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

Reuters economists agree on last year, but see faster growth ahead: A Reuters poll of 13 economists also expect 4.0% growth for the last fiscal year, slightly up from the 3.8% consensus in April. But they’re more bullish on this fiscal year, seeing GDP accelerating to 4.6% amid stronger manufacturing activity and reforms tied to the IMF program.

DIPLOMACY-

Egypt joins Arab, Western nations in calling on Hamas to disarm, exit Gaza: Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia joined 14 other countries and the EU and Arab League in signing a declaration calling for Hamas to end its rule in Gaza and disarm, in what France described as an “unprecedented” move, writes AFP. The declaration — issued during the UN conference on the two-state solution earlier this week — calls for the Palestinian Authority to take over Gaza with international backing, and condemns the 7 October Hamas attacks.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- A new low-volatility index is coming to the EGX next month: The Egyptian Exchange will launch the EGX35-LV index on 1 August to track the 35 most liquid stocks with the lowest price volatility, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. The new benchmark spans 13 sectors.


#2- A Chinese appliances player could set up shop in Sadat City: A major Chinese home appliances manufacturer is looking to invest USD 300 mn to build a factory in Sadat City, Hassan Mabrouk, head of the Home Appliance Division at the Federation of Egyptian Industries, told Al Borsa. The company has begun talks with the government to obtain a golden license and plans to break ground on the project next year upon receiving the required approvals.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

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DEBT WATCH-

Liquidity absorption drops to 15-month low: The Central Bank of Egypt accepted 16 bids for just EGP 154.7 bn in fixed-rate deposits at a fixed rate of 24.50% during its weekly fixed-rate auction, according to data published on its website. This marks the lowest liquidity mop-up since April 2024, when it withdrew EGP 150 mn.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s relatively calm in the foreign press this morning, as we gear up for a much busier few days heading into the weekend.

What to watch out for: Today’s Fed decision and indicators for future rates decisions; a slew of corporate earnings, including from Meta and Microsoft later today and Apple and Amazon tomorrow; and a potentially big day for markets on Friday, when higher US tariffs are set to take effect.

For now, the story getting the most attention in the foreign press: The US and China have wrapped their trade talks in Stockholm with no agreement in sight yet, though US President Donald Trump said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent felt “good” about the talks. Trump would have to give final approval on any agreement, Bessent confirmed. The 90-day pause on tariffs is set to expire on 12 August, after which Chinese exports could be subject to up to a 125% tariff — as floated by Trump earlier in the year. (Bloomberg | CNBC | Reuters | Guardian)

Speaking of tariffs: Procter & Gamble is forecasting a USD 1 bn hit on the back of US tariffs, and said it would hike prices “moderately” in the US as part of its long-term strategy. (Financial Times)

Also getting ink: AI firm Anthropic is eyeing a USD 170 bn valuation with a USD 5 bn new funding round set to be led by Iconiq Capital, with potential investments from the the Qatar Investment Authority and Singapore’s sovereign fund GIC. This comes shortly after a note to staff from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he’s looking towards the region for funding despite still holding it in contempt. (Bloomberg | CNBC)

ALSO- The UK said it would recognize Palestine if Israel does not end the war by September, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday, following in the footsteps of French President Emmanuel Macron, who said France will recognize the Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September. (DW | BBC | NPR)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a look at what’s pushing local contractors to search for projects abroad.

Whether you’re diving into turquoise waters, catching the golden hour from your terrace, or just letting time drift by — Somabay is summer, redefined. Your ultimate escape, every single time.

2

Energy

Egypt secures LNG supply through 2026, plans to boost domestic production for export

The Madbouly government has secured LNG supply through 2026 at a total estimated cost of USD 8 bn after signing agreements with six international energy companies, a government source in the energy sector told EnterpriseAM. The final bill may fluctuate based on domestic production and consumption levels, thanks to a built-in flexibility mechanism negotiated with suppliers.

We’ll be investing more in regasification capacity to make it work: The government plans to lease a fifth floating regasification plant to accommodate the remaining 46 incoming LNG shipments. Talks with Qatar are also underway for medium-term LNG supply.

REMEMBER- A government source has previously told us that the Oil Ministry will spend USD 2.5 bn on 60 LNG shipments this summer to meet the expected high electricity demand.

The impact on global markets: Our continued reliance on imports will “likely [help] absorb some of the additional supply as new projects come online and help support prices,” Bloomberg writes. The market is already experiencing heightened demand, with Europe seeking extra shipments to replace Russian gas.

Exports to remain on hold: Egypt is expected to miss its 2027 goal of resuming LNG exports and will remain a net gas importer until at least 2030, our source said, adding that the 2030 timeline lines up with efforts to boost local production and investments in the gas sector.

The government is preparing a new bidding round to attract energy investors and is seeking to increase natural gas production by developing several fields to produce some 300 to 350 bn cubic feet of gas, another government source told us. The plan to increase production will reduce the import bill for petroleum products for the current fiscal year by approximately USD 1.5 bn, according to the source.

A big plan unfolding: The government wants to see petroleum sector output rise to EGP 1.7 tn this fiscal year, according to documents seen by EnterpriseAM. The plan is to unlock some EGP 208 bn in private investment in the sector during the 2025-2026 fiscal year — 40% of it in natural gas — with a goal of generating USD 5 bn in export revenues by 2030, up from USD 3.3 bn currently.

IN OTHER ENERGY NEWS-

More details about the plan to bring in Cypriot gas to Egypt for liquefaction and re-export: Plans are underway to fast-track the connection of Cyprus’ offshore Cronos and Aphrodite gas fields to Egypt’s Zohr infrastructure, with a combined 1.3 bcf/d of gas set to be routed through the network by 2028, government sources told Asharq Business.

Breaking down the timeline: Eni is expected to complete a 90-km subsea pipeline linking the Cronos field to Port Said by the end of 2027, bringing in around 500 mcf/d, a percentage of which will be used to feed the national grid. Gas from the Aphrodite field will follow with 800 mcf/d coming in a year later.

REMEMBER- Egypt and Cyprus inked multiple agreements earlier this year that will see Cyprus ship natural gas from its offshore fields to be liquefied in facilities in Idku and Damietta before being re-exported to foreign markets.

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3

Industry

Factories blindsided by water overconsumption fines

Some factories in Egypt have received surprise letters demanding they pay retroactive fines for exceeding water consumption limits, execs at two manufacturers told EnterpriseAM.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The newly imposed water consumption quotas are being applied retroactively to all consumption records since 2020, the sources said. Industry insiders described the bar for being classified as a low-end water consumer as “unworkably” low.

REMEMBER- Egypt faces an annual water deficit of around 7 bn cbm, which is equivalent to 55% of its needs. Egypt is expected to rely more on virtual water imports than local Nile water by 2030 as the river suffers from the intrusion of saltwater, rising sea levels, and the threat of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the country’s future water supply.

Factories did not see this coming — and they’re taking action. The Egyptian Businessmen’s Association is asking officials to clarify the new rules, arguing that the decision is inconsistent with the state’s push to grow industrial output. Factories currently have no outstanding debts to water companies, one source noted, and many were unaware of any consumption limits prior to receiving the letters. The association has also asked the prime minister and housing minister for an urgent meeting to discuss the fines and determine how the new quotas will be implemented.

The industry is calling for a rollback of the decision, highlighting that most factories regularly settle their water and electricity bills and that industrial water use is not usually subject to pricing tiers. The source called on the government to either cancel the decision or apply it only from the date it was issued — not retroactively.

4

INVESTMENT WATCH

Egypt eyes building USD 400 mn bioethanol production plant

State-owned Egyptian Sugar and Integrated Industries Company (ESIIC) is looking into setting up a USD 400 mn bioethanol production plant at its Kom Ombo facilities, Managing Director Salah Fathy told Al Mal. The project will be implemented in partnership with Italy’s Eni and Proger and co-financed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Technical and financial studies are still underway.

The details: The factory, which will process sugarcane waste (bagasse) into 1.2 mn tons of bioethanol annually, will operate as an independent unit within the Kom Ombo sugar complex. ESIIC will contribute the land plot, while Eni will handle energy and petrochemical marketing. Surplus production will be earmarked for export, although the local market will remain the primary focus of the project.

There’s more: ESIIC is also looking to produce bioethanol from sugar beet at its Abu Qurqas plant, targeting 1.2 mn tons in annual production, Fathy added.

Adding to the pipeline: The Egyptian Bioethanol Company is carrying out a USD 112 mnproject to use molasses produced by local sugar companies to produce 100k tons of bioethanol annually. Another bioethanol project that uses molasses in the production of renewable fuel that can be mixed with gasoline to reduce carbon emissions from vehicles is also in the works.

5

A MESSAGE FROM VISA

Visa responds to SMBs’ appetite for digital innovation

Visa is helping small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) harness the power of generative AI to streamline operations, enhance customer engagement, and make smarter financial decisions.

With Visa’s support, SMBs are automating routine tasks like invoicing and reconciliation, reducing errors, cutting costs, and freeing up time to focus on growth. Generative AI is also transforming how businesses connect with customers, using insights from card spend data to create personalized offers that drive satisfaction and loyalty.

These tools also support better financial management, from real-time cashflow monitoring to identifying cost-saving possibilities. This enables business owners to make faster, data-driven decisions in a competitive market.

The Egyptian digital payments landscape is thriving, evidenced by the rapid growth in digital payment adoption. According to a Visa SMB Study, 53% of businesses surveyed have adopted digital payments within the last two years. This demonstrates a swift market evolution driven by the desire among businesses to enhance efficiency.

Small- and medium-sized businesses are recognizing the value of digital ways to pay and be paid, with 77% of digital payment acceptors agreeing that investments in digital payments will support future business growth, citing benefits such as customer convenience (46%), increased sales (37%), and improved customer retention (32%).

Read more about Visa’s solutions for SMBs here.

6

INVESTMENT WATCH

Infinix to set up third factory in Egypt as part of wider investment plan

Chinese smartphone maker Infinix plans to invest at least USD 15 mn in 2026 and 2027 to expand Egyptian operations, a company official told EnterpriseAM adding more color to comments General Manager Taha Magdy made earlier. Between 20-30% of the earmarked investment will go toward the company’s third factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone to assemble smartphones and smart accessories — including watches, earphones, and power banks — in partnership with local agents, the source said.

The details: The factory is slated to launch before the end of 2026 in a yet to be decided location, the source said. “We’re currently evaluating two or three different locations within the zone and will make a final decision soon,” he added. The new factory is expected to roll out over 50k units within the first two months of launch, though long-term output remains under evaluation, the source told us. Infinix’s current production capacity across existing local facilities stands at around 1 mn units annually.

A push into mid-range and flagship territory: The company is also working to reposition itself beyond budget smartphones over the next two years. Its current strategy includes capturing more market share in the mid-range and flagship segments through new product lines, according to the source.

Infinix’s local sales have soared by 90% since the government introduced fees on mobile phones coming from abroad through unofficial channels, Magdy said. This crackdown on grey market imports has created a more favorable environment for local manufacturers.

REMEMBER- In January, the Madbouly government introduced customs and taxes totaling38.5% on grey market phone imports as it looks to grow the domestic mobile phone assembly industry. A government source in the telecom sector recently told EnterpriseAM that the mobile phone import duty system is currently under review, with the officials looking to tighten the system to clamp down on abuse.

The firm is one of several global brands now assembling phones locally: Xiaomi, Nokia, Infinix, Micromax, and Vivo have invested a combined USD 87.5 mn in the local market so far, with a combined annual production capacity of 11.5 mn smartphones.

7

INVESTMENT WATCH

Moonbase Capital to open Egypt office within six months

Moonbase Capital to launch Egyptian office as part of global expansion plan: Spain-based Egyptian-led investment firm Moonbase Capital plans to open an office in Egypt within the next six months as part of a broader global expansion strategy, Director Aly Abdel Baki told EnterpriseAM. The new Cairo team — starting with three analysts — will support Moonbase’s growing pipeline across MENA and Asia, Founding Partner had Ibrahim Abdel Rahim had earlier said.

But don’t expect local investments just yet: Despite Egypt’s long-term potential, Moonbase isn’t putting capital to work here in the near term. There are a few hurdles making the local market difficult to access, Abdel Baki said, pointing to the lack of accessible acquisition financing at reasonable rates from banks — critical for Moonbase’s search fund model — currency volatility, which complicates EUR investments, and the fact that target companies with EUR 1-5 mn in EBITDA (Moonbase’s sweetspot) often have large workforces in Egypt, complicating transitions and succession planning.

Founded in 2021, Moonbase is a search fund investment firm that specializes in SME acquisitions, according to its website. In October 2024, it launched its second USD 15 mn investment vehicle, with 40% earmarked for emerging markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

SOUND SMART- Search funds are investment outfits that raise funds from investors to acquire a small- or medium-sized business that is already operating well in the market, to then grow it and ensure return to their investors. Through the acquisition, the CEO of the company is replaced with a seasoned entrepreneur to lead the company for a period of time until the fund exits the investment.

Looking ahead: Egypt could be a future opportunity, especially as the macroeconomic situation stabilizes, Abdel Baki said. Succession gaps in family businesses and growing awareness of the search fund model are two longer-term trends that could create viable opportunities, he added.

8

EARNINGS WATCH

Mashreq reports 1H earnings

Our friends at Mashreq saw their operating income climb to AED 6.2 bn in 1H 2025, up 1% y-o-y on the back of increased lending and strong contributions from both investment and non-interest incomes, according to their management analysis & discussion report (pdf). Net income after tax dipped 14% y-o-y to AED 3.5 bn. The group’s core banking operations as well as its strategic investments and expansion across Oman, Turkey, and Pakistan continued to drive growth.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Non-interest income rose 17% y-o-y reaching AED 2.2 bn, while investment income grew 55% to AED 213 mn.

On a quarterly basis, Mashreq’s net income after tax fell 16% y-o-y to AED 1.7 bn, though net interest income ticked up 1% q-o-q to AED 2 bn, as prudent asset pricing offset cumulative rate cuts of 100 bps since 2024. Loans and advances grew 21% y-o-y with more lending for residential mortgages, construction, manufacturing, and financial institutions. Customer deposits saw a 15% y-o-y uptick to AED 117 bn.

What they said: Group CEO Ahmed Abdelaal said the strong results were attributed to “strong client activity, a diversified earnings profile, and our unwavering commitment to innovation, efficiency, and value creation.” He referenced investments and upgrades in their technology infrastructure, balanced with “strict cost discipline” as key parts of the bank’s investment strategy.

9

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Senate elections kick off this weekend

Senate elections in the spotlight: The nation’s talking heads had coverage of the fast approaching Senate elections, with voting for expats set to take place this Friday and Saturday, while voters at home will head to the polls on Monday and Tuesday. Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 14:20) and Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal (watch, runtime: 5:59) both spotlighted campaign events held by different parties.

10

Also on our Radar

Egypt to offer industrial wastewater treatment plants to be developed through PPPs

INFRASTRUCTURE-

Investors will be able to bid on two new industrial wastewater treatment plants, valued at over USD 100 mn, in September when the Finance Ministry offers them for tender, the ministry’s public-private partnership unit head Atter Hannoura told Al Borsa. One of the plants will have a capacity of 30k cbm and will be located in Alexandria’s freezone, while the other will be in Abu Rawash in Giza.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

EXPANSION-

Local ICT services provider Summit Technology Solutions is looking to expand into Iraq late 2025 or early 2026 as part of a broader MENA expansion strategy that will also see it step foot in the Syrian market and potentially Algeria and Morocco, CEO Sherif Hamzawy said in a statement. Meanwhile, its UAE presence will serve as a regional operations hub and launchpad into other GCC and Asian markets including Pakistan.

NBFS-

Four NBFS players secure licenses: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has granted licenses for four companies to expand or begin non-banking financial services operations, according to a statement. Al Ahli Kuwait - Egypt Leasing and EFS Financial Solutions secured the license to add factoring to their activities. Aspire Capital Holding got the nod to operate investment funds, and Aur Capital got its license to begin operations. The FRA also gave AAIB and Alexbank the green light to trade in government securities on the secondary market.

ENERGY-

Egypt, UAE to study regional energy logistics cooperation: The Oil Ministry signed an MoU with AD Ports Group and project manager TCM to explore joint cooperation on regional crude logistics, according to a statement. The agreement will look at ways to integrate Egypt’s strategic oil reserves infrastructure with AD Ports’ digital and operational capabilities to boost energy security, ease crude trade flow, and strengthen supply chain resilience.

SOCIAL PROTECTION-

Takaful and Karama payouts just got a bump: Cash support under the Takaful and Karama program increased 25%, according to a statement. The increase comes as part of the state’s broader social protection framework, which covers some 7.7 mn households.

TRANSPORT-

Uber launched UberXL in Egypt, offering a more spacious ride option for customers, according to a company statement (pdf). The service allows riders to book larger vehicles — including SUVs, minivans, and crossovers — through the Uber app. The service is now available in Cairo, with plans to roll it out in other cities depending on how well it is received.

11

PLANET FINANCE

Lower-than-expected tariffs and weaker USD prop up IMF’s global growth outlook

The IMF revises global growth forecast upwards: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.0% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its previous estimate in April, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf). The fund expects growth to slightly accelerate to 3.1% in 2026, revising up its previous estimate by 0.1 percentage point.

Behind the upgrade: The upward revision came on the back of stronger-than-expected front-loading of economic activity by firms and households in anticipation of higher tariffs, the fund said. The revision is also supported by lower average US tariff rates than were initially assumed in April. “At the time of the April forecast we had an effective tariff rate of 24%. We’re now looking at an effective tariff rate of 17%, [...] still much higher than where we were in January,” IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the Financial Times.

A weaker USD had also helped the outlook: The USD is down by some 9% in the year-to-date against a basket of currencies including the EUR and the GBP, mainly due to the trade war and attacks on the Federal Reserve, Gourinchas added.

Major economies saw modest upgrades: The IMF now expects the US to grow 1.9% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from the previous forecast. Meanwhile, Japan’s 2025 growth was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 0.7%. The fund also upgraded its forecast for Canada’s growth by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%.

China and India also see stronger outlooks: China’s 2025 outlook got a significant upgrade by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year and a significant reduction in US-China tariffs. Meanwhile, India’s growth forecast was revised slightly upward to 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026 due to a more benign external environment.

Across the Atlantic: Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.0% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points, mainly driven by a strong GDP outturn in Ireland, which was boosted by front-loading of pharma exports to the US. The IMF projects 1.2% growth for the area in 2026, unchanged from April.

Trade distortions cloud the picture: Global trade volumes are now expected to grow 2.6% in 2025, a 0.9 percentage point upgrade from April, due to the front-loading of trade flows ahead of anticipated restrictions. However, this effect is expected to fade, with a "payback" materializing through 2026, leading to a 0.6 percentage point downgrade in the 2026 trade volume forecast, where it’s expected to log 1.9% increase, the fund said.

A hazy horizon: The IMF warns that the outlook is marked by "tenuous resilience amid persistent uncertainty," with risks tilted to the downside. An escalation of protectionist measures could dampen global growth. However, growth prospects could improve if trade negotiations lead to a predictable framework and a decline in tariffs.

The inflation outlook: Global headline inflation is expected to continue its decline over the next two years, falling to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026. This forecast is "virtually unchanged" from the April report. However, the report notes cross-country differences, with inflation projected to remain above target in the US while being more subdued in other big economies.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s another mixed morning for Asian markets, as investors await for updates on US-China trade talks. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 0.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei is unchanged. US investors are also bracing for the Fed’s decision today, leaving Wall Street futures unchanged.

EGX30

34,086

0.0% (YTD: +14.6%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.59

Sell 48.73

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.62

Sell 48.72

Interest rates (CBE)

24.00% deposit

25.00% lending

Tadawul

10,824

-0.6% (YTD: -10.1%)

ADX

10,342

-0.2% (YTD: +9.8%)

DFM

6,178

+0.2% (YTD: +19.8%)

S&P 500

6,371

-0.3% (YTD: +8.3%)

FTSE 100

9,136

+0.6% (YTD: +11.8%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,379

+0.8% (YTD: +9.9%)

Brent crude

USD 72.51

+3.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.08

+3.1%

Gold

USD 3,384

0.0%

BTC

USD 117,571

-0.2% (YTD: +25.7%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

881.71

0.0% (YTD: +13.4%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

146.42

+0.2% (YTD: +4.6%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

15.98

+6.3% (YTD: -7.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 was flat at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.2 bn (18.2% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 14.6% YTD.

In the green: Edita (+8.2%), Telecom Egypt (+3.1%), and Orascom Development (+2.3%).

In the red: EFG Holding (-1.9%), Palm Hills (-1.5%), and Sidpec (-1.4%).

12

HARDHAT

Egyptian contractors are expanding abroad to tap into regional construction booms

Egypt’s contractors are increasingly eyeing regional expansion, driven by decades of experience in infrastructure projects at home and a desire to enter new markets across the Gulf and in Africa to capitalize on construction and investment booms. However, despite the wide array of options, the path is filled with regulatory and financing challenges, industry players told EnterpriseAM.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

An unpredictable economy in Egypt in recent years has pushed many players in the sector to fast-track their regional expansion plans. Many now aim to have the majority of their executed work come from offshore projects, ensuring steady and sustainable cashflows while hedging against EGP exchange rate shocks, contractors told EnterpriseAM. The government has also directed public-sector contractors to expand regionally and internationally, tapping their expertise and technical capabilities to diversify income streams, boost returns, and raise competitiveness.

Strategic alliances are essential: Rowad Modern Engineering, for example, relies on three main levers to enter international markets, CEO Mohamed Mahlab told EnterpriseAM. These include forming engineering partnerships with local companies in target countries, securing financing partnerships with entities like UK Export Finance — with which Rowad has recently signed an MoU — and enabling two-way technology transfer to and from Egypt to continuously upgrade domestic capacity. In Saudi Arabia, contractors no longer need a sponsoring partner under the kafeel system to operate, but rather a local partner who understands the market and can support legal and operational entry, Redcon Construction Chairman Tarek El Gamal told us.

Continuity and funding are key to accessing tough foreign markets: Entering a new market relies first on visibility around the continuity of work, as is the case in Saudi Arabia, where there is a clear long-term project roadmap extending beyond the 2034 World Cup, Mahlab said. Second is access to international financing, particularly in some African markets, which helps mitigate payment delay risks and makes it easier to commit to entering a new market, even when continuity is more limited, he added. The lack of available funding is the single biggest obstacle to entering African markets, El Gamal said, emphasizing the need for a “financial backbone” for Egyptian firms. Redcon’s Saudi branch, for example, benefits from projects financed by the Saudi Development Fund in Africa, he said.

Reconstruction markets are becoming more attractive — after KSA: Saudi Arabia remains the most important foreign market for Egyptian contractors due to continuous megaproject demand and a long-term vision through 2030 and beyond, contractors told EnterpriseAM. A well-developed digital regulatory environment — including platforms like Absher — along with foreign ownership options and diverse projects in tourism, industry, and infrastructure have made the Kingdom an attractive destination, El Gamal said. Markets like Libya and Iraq have also become more appealing as reconstruction efforts ramp up, provided that safe financing is available or that partnerships with international financing institutions are in place, Mahlab said.

Competing abroad requires full readiness: Competing abroad, particularly in the Gulf, Africa, and Iraq, requires more than just solid engineering, Mahlab said. Contractors need to understand labor laws, local culture, and how to form meaningful partnerships. “In Africa, we cover 54 different countries, each with its own language, culture, and challenges. Those who fail to prepare will lose before they begin,” he added. As construction digitization accelerates, the shortage of qualified talent in advanced digital systems remains a key challenge for Egyptian firms abroad, El Gamal noted. Many major African infrastructure projects are financed by the World Bank and other development institutions, which impose strict safety, sustainability, and quality standards, which are just as strict as those in the Gulf.

Contracting = indirect export channel: Contracting acts as a tool to open new markets for Egyptian products like building and finishing materials, Mahlab said. “We make sure to use Egyptian inputs like marble and formwork in projects we implement abroad. This approach drives demand for local products and creates non-traditional export paths,” he added. While exports from contractor-led projects abroad remain limited, boosting export-oriented services like engineering and consulting should be a policy priority, especially as other countries, like Turkey, actively incentivize their contractors to export, El Gamal said.

Transport is leading the infrastructure pack: Transport is the “real development driver,” both in Egypt and the wider region, Mahlab said, pointing out that sustainable development efforts in most countries start with this sector. Heavy infrastructure sectors like tunneling and railways represent strategic options for Egyptian contractors, El Gamal added, noting that Egypt holds a competitive edge in these areas due to decades of experience, having been the first in the Arab world and Africa to deliver these systems.

Success abroad starts at home: Rowad spent years building a full digital system — from design through procurement to execution — Mahlab said. Every project runs through a closed-loop digital process, which he said gives them a real edge both locally and internationally.

But going global doesn’t mean forgetting home: Foreign expansion should not come at the expense of developing local capacity or disconnecting from society, Mahlab stressed. National teams must be integrated into international work environments to ensure sustainability and local acceptance. Technology is the solution to labor shortages, especially in more structured markets. Redcon was among the region’s first companies to implement a Building Information Modeling digital system, which allows firms to simulate a project before execution and analyze cost, timing, sustainability, and operations.

FINANCING AND BANK GUARANTEES REMAIN KEY OBSTACLES-

More financial support is needed to match global rivals: One of the key challenges facing Egyptian contractors abroad is the lack of financial and institutional backing compared to competitors from countries like Turkey and China, which enter regional markets with cheap government-backed financing, contractors told EnterpriseAM. Firms from these countries benefit from strong financial institutions that issue letters of guarantee and offer credit facilities, helping them win international tenders. In contrast, Egyptian companies often struggle to obtain international letters of guarantee, especially when setting up new operations abroad without an existing credit history, El Gamal explained.

Local banks need to step up: Contractors want Egyptian banks to play a bigger role in issuing international letters of guarantee, especially in key markets like Saudi Arabia, construction sources told EnterpriseAM. Some Egyptian banks issue guarantees for overseas projects based on the company’s domestic credit history, but this is still limited to select banks and contractors, El Gamal said. He urged the government to build a more comprehensive framework to help contractors go international, including easing access to bank guarantees and rolling out financing mechanisms similar to those used by China and Turkey.

The new export council is a step in the right direction: The recently formed Export Council for Contracting Services is a step in the right direction, El Gamal said. He called for stronger support for Egyptian consultants, who play a vital role in marketing projects and promoting local materials. Mahlab said the council could help both veteran and startup contractors enter African and regional markets with more confidence.

Everyone has a shot: What is needed now is an industrial consensus that supports Egyptian companies with expansion plans, Mahlab told us. Contracting can be exported by a small company or a large one — as long as there’s ambition, a solid organizational structure, and the ability to take risks, he added.


Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • The Madbouly government could postpone electricity price hikes until January 2026, a government source told EnterpriseAM. This is one of three potential scenarios for electricity price increases; the other two are either hiking prices up next month or postponing them until September.
  • “The real estate market has witnessed worrying developments that threaten appetite to invest in the industry,” the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association said in a letter to Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly in response to a decision to impose new levies on land owned by developers on the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Highway and North Coast.
  • Orascom Construction is repositioning itself within the region’s capital markets after its board approved moving its primary listing from Nasdaq Dubai to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange.

JULY

End-July 2025: Egypt and Jordan to connect fifth FSRU ‘Energos Force’ to Arab Gas Pipeline via Aqaba port.

Also happening this month:

  • The first operational trial of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line
  • China’s State Grid aims to finalize contracts for two solar projects

AUGUST

3-4 August (Sunday-Monday): Egyptian Abroad Conference, Triumph Hotel in New Cairo.

3-5 August (Sunday-Tuesday): Edugate Cairo, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel in New Cairo.

6 August (Wednesday): Egugate Alexandria, Hilton Green Plaza Hotel in Alexandria.

7 August (Thursday): Finance Ministry to begin disbursement of 50% of exporters’ pre-June 2024 dues over a four-year plan.

12 August (Tuesday): Egyptian Tax Authority deadline for pre-2020 tax dispute settlement requests.

28 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Mid-August: Launch of electronic platform to register Old Rent Law tenants.

Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

Late-August: Deadline for cement factories to restart production.

SEPTEMBER

8-11 September (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes London Conference takes place in the British capital.

15 September (Monday): IMF to hold its combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24-27 September (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

The Egyptian-Moroccan Business Council to send a delegation of 23 local companies to Rabat.

The Engineering Export Council of Egypt will ship a commercial delegation to Russia to ramp up exports to European markets.

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay.

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026.

OCTOBER

2 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

7 October (Tuesday): The 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

12-16 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo.

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Stone Africa Expo, Cairo International Conference Center.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

NOVEMBER

16-19 November: Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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