Kouchouk relays a message of optimism ahead of IMF reviews

Wednesday, 17 Sep 2025

Kouchouk relays a message of optimism ahead of IMF reviews

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Today at a glance

TAX

The second package of tax facilities is now under community review.

ECONOMY

Kouchouk relays a message of optimism ahead of our IMF reviews.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Could October’s fuel price hike be the last?

TAX

Gov’t exempts foreign crude suppliers from registering with ETA.

Tourism

Gov’t is looking to increase tourism revenues to USD 24 bn by FY 28-29.

DEBT WATCH

GoBus secures EUR 10.6 mn from the EBRD to expand electric fleet.

Moves

Mark Bryson-Richardson takes up position as the UK’s ambassador to Egypt.

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

DP World, Elsewedy Industrial Development to set up USD 20 mn cold storage facility.

PLANET FINANCE

GCC to remain among the top emerging market USD debt issuers this year -Fitch.

HARDHAT

How can Egypt unlock its real estate export potential?

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Could October’s fuel price hike be the last?

Good morning, all. After a few quiet days, the news flow has picked up with the latest on the long-anticipated second package of tax facilities — currently under community review — and Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk voicing his optimism about our upcoming reviews with the IMF.

And more good news: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly hinted that we could finally see fuel prices stabilize with the upcoming hike likely to be the last.

Mark your calendar for the 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum, our flagship forum and part of our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings. Tap the image to register your interest to attend and here to visit the website and keep up to date on the agenda and speaker lineup. Want to partner with us? Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at mtaalab@enterprisemea.com to explore sponsorship opportunities.

PSA-

A blacklist for factories stealing electricity will soon be put together, after the Electricity Ministry proposal got the green light from the Ministerial Group for Industrial Development, according to an Industry Ministry statement. After the list is put together, “strict measures” will be taken to deter the practice of electricity theft, according to the statement. The timeline for compiling the list and the consequences for the listed factories are yet to be released to the public.

WEATHER- It's another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 33°C and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Could October’s fuel price hike be the last? Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly confirmed that the government has a clear reform plan for fuel prices and signaled that the next scheduled increase, likely in October, could be the last major hike if global prices remain stable, he said yesterday. Diesel, he added, will stay subsidized even after the hike.

You heard it here first: EnterpriseAM earlier this month reported that the government could move ahead with its second fuel price hike of the year as soon as October, in line with its plan to phase out fuel subsidies by year-end.

#2- Egypt is mulling plans to set up six logistics centers for local products in several countries across Africa, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib said during a meeting held on the sidelines of the Ministerial Retreat of the Council of Ministers Responsible for Trade. The plans also include positioning Morocco as a key hub for Egypt’s exports to Africa — leveraging its accessibility to North and West African markets, El Khatib said, without disclosing further details.

#3- Russian investment news incoming? A Russian delegation of 15 companies headed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk is meeting with the Federation of Egyptian Industries to talk about investing and working in the Egyptian market, Asharq Business reports, citing four unnamed federation sources. The planned Russian industrial zone will also be on the agenda.

The meeting will wrap up with the signing of several MoUs in strategic sectors, according to the outlet.

We have an idea what one of the MoUs might entail: Russian infrastructure giant Natsproektstroy is eyeing Egypt for a slate of transport and logistics projects, agreeing to provisionally sign an MoU with Egyptian National Railways and the National Authority for Tunnels during this week’s visit, Russian new agency Interfax reports. The company is also considering setting up shop in the planned industrial zone to produce rail signaling control systems and other components to export.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day one of the Cairo Regional Forum on Financing Renewables, GreenHydrogen, andGreen Ammonia at Nile University. The two-day event, hosted by the International Green Hydrogen Center of Excellence in Cairo, brings together policymakers, renewables players, financial institutions, and others to discuss renewable energy investment and collaboration in the region.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

A high-stakes courtroom twist is dominating international headlines this morning, after a New York judge dismissed two terrorism charges against Luigi Mangione — the man accused of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson — while allowing other counts including second-degree murder to proceed. The high-profile case, which has attracted national and international attention since Thompson was shot outside a midtown Manhattan hotel in December, now heads toward trial with Mangione still facing a potential life sentence in state court and the death penalty on federal charges. (Financial Times | BBC | The Guardian | CNN | New York Times | Reuters)

AND IN MARKET NEWS- Wall Street edged lower yesterday as investors hit pause ahead of an expected 25 bps rate cut from the Fed later today — the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Dow Jones 0.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 0.1%. The muted session came even after data showed that August retail sales rose higher than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks later today will be closely watched for any shift in tone as the central bank tries to balance sticky inflation with a deteriorating labor market. (Reuters | Wall Street Journal | CNBC)

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING- EU competitiveness czar Mario Draghi delivered a sharp warning on Tuesday that Europe is “in a harder place” than a year ago, with its growth model “fading” and “vulnerabilities mounting” because of inaction by Brussels and national governments, writes the Financial Times. Draghi — who issued 383 recommendations last year to boost the bloc’s economic standing — said only a fraction had been enacted and blasted EU inertia as “complacency.”

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We dive into what needs to be done to unlock Egypt’s real estate export potential.

Tags:

oil and gas WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

As the Sahel summer winds down, the Red Sea is just getting started. Say hello to Somabay, a year-round seaside escape where tranquil waters, world-class diving, kitesurfing, golf, and wellness come together in one breathtaking destination. This September, it also hosts the ITF World Tennis Tour, bringing world-class tennis to the coast. Somabay is the perfect next stop, a place where the season never ends, and every day feels like the first day of summer.

TAX

The second package of tax facilities is now under community review

The Finance Ministry has kick-started community dialogue sessions on the second package of tax facilities set to launch in 4Q 2025, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM. Meetings were held with major accounting and tax consultancy firms to identify problems and challenges facing large local and foreign companies in preparation to address them in the new package.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

REMEMBER- It first came to light in September of last year that the government is readying another tax relief package, one targeting the real estate sector, shortly after it unveiled the first package of tax facilities aimed at simplifying the tax system and easing the burden on taxpayers. Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said last month that the second package of tax relief measures will be put up for community dialogue in October, pending parliamentary approval of some aspects.

What to expect from the package? Extending the deadline for settling tax disputes could be one of the expected measures to resolve all outstanding tax disputes, the source confirmed. It is also expected to propose legislative amendments to the VAT Law and the Tax Procedures Law.

A change of tune? A senior government source told us last month the Finance Ministry had no plans to further extend the deadline given for companies to submit pre-2020 tax dispute settlement requests, with the deadline expiring on 12 August.

A flexible value-added tax refund system will also be introduced through a digitized platform, reducing the current three-month — or longer — wait time, with simplified refund procedures requiring only export invoices, according to the source.

More tax facilities are on the way: Another key proposal is issuing new guidelines for international transaction pricing, or transfer pricing, the source said.

DATA POINT- Some 401k taxpayers benefited from the first tax relief package, including 396k applications to settle disputes. So far, EGP 23 bn in dues have been written off, with the rest still under review. Some 152.4k companies have benefited from EGP 17 bn in exemptions on late payment fees — up to 100% in some cases — and 104k taxpayers have applied to benefit from the simplified system for projects with an annual turnover not exceeding EGP 20 mn.

Tags:

Finance Ministry tax

ECONOMY

Egypt’s Kouchouk relays a message of optimism ahead of our IMF reviews

Egypt is currently well-positioned to complete the fifth and sixth reviews of its USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF — a key milestone that would help cement international confidence in the Egyptian economy, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said yesterday, speaking at an AmCham event attended by EnterpriseAM. Egypt has been committed to the reforms agreed upon with the Fund, he said.

We still have ways to go: Despite his optimism, Kouchouk stressed that there remains an “essential and fundamental” need to carry out further measures, and that efforts are underway to boost confidence in the country and its creditworthiness.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

REMEMBER- The IMF will send a mission on 1 October to Egypt to wrap up its fifth and sixth reviews, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM late last week. The reviews — alongside the first tranche from the Fund’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility — could unlock some USD 2.7 bn.

We suspect his message has something to do with the Fund previously pushing back our fifth review, with reportedly citing the government’s inability to meet structural benchmarks under the facility, namely disinvestment targets.

Progress on the privatization front is one of the fund’s most important demands, a source close to discussions between the IMF and Egypt previously told EnterpriseAM. For the IMF, privatizing state assets doesn’t just create FX inflows; it also works toward expanding private sector activity in the economy, we were told.

There has been some progress on that front: The Madbouly government has appointed investment banks and counsels for 10 companies as they prepare to offer up stakes to the private sector.

Executing transactions under the state privatization program signals the government’s seriousness about involving the private sector, Kouchouk said.

Tags:

Ahmed Kouchouk debt economy IMF

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TAX

Following objections, Egypt exempts foreign crude suppliers from registering with ETA

Gov’t scraps plan to register foreign crude suppliers ahead of implementing recent VAT amendments that would see them face a 10% tax, three government sources told EnterpriseAM. The move aims to keep them happy and keep their investments flowing.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

BACKGROUND- The Finance Ministry had been looking into registering crude oil suppliers under the simplified system with the Egyptian Tax Authority (ETA) in the foreign suppliers registry, which would have allowed for reverse tax charging. This was met with complaints from foreign firms, who noted that registration with the Egyptian tax system is not stipulated in their agreements, seeing as petroleum agreements follow a standalone legal framework, distinct from local laws.

How it will work: Foreign firms will be exempt from e-invoicing; instead, they will submit a simplified request and a declaration of the quantities supplied to the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).

It will all fall to the EGPC — Egypt’s sole buyer of crude — to calculate, pay, and remit the VAT, as well as settling any penalties or late fees, the sources told us.

Stay tuned for the executive regulations: The mechanism will be detailed in the upcoming executive regulations for the amended VAT Act, which will be out within the coming days, the sources said.

It’s all about keeping FDI flowing: The move aims to attract more foreign players to the country’s petroleum sector, the sources told us.

REFRESHER- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in July ratified VAT amendments, which are estimated to help the government bring in an additional EGP 200 bn in tax revenues. These amendments introduce a new tax treatment for crude oil — making it subject to a 10% tax.

ALSO IMPACTED BY THE VAT AMENDMENTS-

The VAT amendments also impact construction and contracting services, making them subject to the standard 14% VAT rate. The move resolved a long-standing issue affecting construction firms — under the previous VAT system supply and installation services were taxed at a flat 5% schedule rate without allowing companies to deduct input VAT.

The details: Under the amendments, the 14% VAT rate will apply only to new contracts signed after the law’s issuance, a government source told EnterpriseAM. Ongoing contracts signed before the law went into effect will continue to be taxed at the old 5% rate and contractors will not be allowed to deduct input VAT for these pre-existing contracts, the source added. During the transition period, the tax will be collected based on the contract date — not the payment date — to account for the sector’s staggered payment structure.

DATA POINT- The Finance Ministry aims to collect some EGP 6 bn from the updated tax treatment for construction activity in the current fiscal year, according to the source.

THERE’S MORE TO THE STORY- We dove into what the new VAT rules mean for contractors in a Hardhat published earlier this year. Check it out here.

Tags:

energy Finance Ministry oil and gas tax

A MESSAGE FROM VISA

Partnering with Visa can help Egypt’s SMBs unlock growth and go global

Running a small business in Egypt isn’t easy. Every day brings a new challenge. Accepting digital payments can help many businesses to get ahead and access global markets.

In a recent study, Visa found that over half of Egyptian SMBs surveyed had integrated digital payments within the last two years.

55% of cash-only merchants are now considering digital payment adoption, indicating strong future growth.

The positive impact is real. 80% of SMBs using digital payments report satisfaction with card acceptance and over 75% say digital payments have positively impacted revenue, with card payments (45%) and mobile/digital wallets (36%) being the most popular options.

With Visa, Egypt’s SMBs are also starting to tap into global markets. Visa helps businesses get faster cross-border payments, transparent currency conversion, and global customer trust.

Whether you're a small e-commerce store shipping to the Gulf or a manufacturer eyeing Europe, Visa’s payment solutions simplify international transactions to prevent lost-in-translation banking and payment delays.

Visa is supporting Egyptian SMBs with the tools they need to digitize, from payment acceptance to business insights and access to new markets. Whether you're a neighborhood grocer or an online boutique, Visa’s digital-first solutions can help you scale up without burning out.

Find out more here.

Tags:

A MESSAGE FROM VISA Visa

Tourism

Egypt is looking to increase tourism revenues to USD 24 bn by FY 2028-29

Tourism looks set to be an increasingly important contributor to the country’s GDP, with the government looking to increase the sector’s annual revenue to USD 24.0 bn by the fiscal year 2028-2029, up over 40% from last fiscal year’s USD 16.7 bn, according to a government document detailing the National Tourism Development Strategy 2030 seen by EnterpriseAM. The targeted increase in revenues will be accompanied by a rise in tourist footfall to 30 mn by the end of the decade, up from 15.7 mn in 2024, and an increase in the average stay from 10.5 to 11 nights.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The strategy sees the private sector playing a vital role in expanding the sector, with private investments making up 99.5% of total targeted investments under the plan. For the current fiscal year, the government sees investments in tourism hitting EGP 116.2 bn, up 60.5% y-o-y, with the private sector accounting for EGP 115.6 bn.

Part of the plan is a focus on medical tourism, with the government setting out a framework to eventually attract 200k visitors a year for treatment or recovery purposes. The plan sees this segment bringing in USD 1.2 bn in annual revenues.

Not the first we hear of the state’s plan to boost medical tourism: Egypt has been trying to position itself as a medical tourism hub to attract FDI and to open fresh FX revenue streams from patients from Africa, the Middle East, and Europe coming here for treatment, thanks to our talented and well-trained medical staff and the competitive price points Egyptian hospitals can offer.

Yacht tourism is also part of the strategy, with the government thinking it could raise USD 3.0 bn a year from it. To support this, the government is looking to partner with the private sector to increase marina capacity and to develop international marinas by adding fuel and maintenance services. The government has been working to boost Egypt’s yacht tourism for years now. And last year the Suez Canal Authority rolled out fresh incentives and facilities for yachts passing through the waterway.

The government also wants to increase tourism on the Nile, with a plan to increase rooms on Nile cruises and floating hotels to 18.2k from 15.7k currently.

REMEMBER- The government recently completed its inventory of Nile-front land suitable for hotel development. The plots will soon be offered to private sector players for development.

DATA POINT- Around 2.2 mn are employed directly or indirectly by the tourism sector, accounting for 6.6% of the total labor force.

Tags:

hospitality tourism

DEBT WATCH

GoBus secures EUR 10.6 mn from the EBRD to expand and electrify fleet

GoBus lands loan to expand and electrify its fleet: Egypt’s first private inter-city bus travel company GoBus secured a EUR 10.6 mn loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to “expand its operations and renew its fleet,” the lender said on its website. The facility is backed by a 10% first-loss risk cover from the European Union through its European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Where’s the money going? The fresh funds will finance the purchase of up to 30 new inter-city buses, six electric microbuses for shorter routes, and three other electric vehicles for intra-city journeys. This “will provide a cleaner, more sustainable alternative, easing congestion and reducing emissions, with strong potential for replication across Egypt’s governorates,” the lender said.

Technical assistance and grants: Alongside the loan, the EBRD will offer GoBus a comprehensive technical cooperation package, covering the legal aspects of the project. Also, a grant will be provided under the EU’s EFSD+ Municipal, Infrastructure and Industrial Resilience program to support corporate governance at GoBus.

That’s not all: The project will also fund training for new fleet drivers, focused on preventing and responding to gender-based violence and harassment — an effort aimed at tackling safety risks in Egypt’s transport system. A UN study cited by the EBRD found that more than 86% of women reported feeling unsafe while using public transport, highlighting the need for stronger safeguards.

CORRECTION- The original version of this story said that the 30 new inter-city buses would be electric. A reader in the sector got in contact to tell us this is not the case. We have amended the story to reflect this.

IN OTHER DEBT NEWS-

Ollin closes EGP 2.6 bn securitized bond issuance: GlobalCorp’s consumer and mortgage financing arm, Ollin, has completed a EGP 2.59 bn securitized bond issuance, according to a statement (pdf) from Arab African International Bank (AAIB), which led the issuance.

ADVISORS- AAIB acted as financial advisor, lead arranger, general coordinator, issuance manager, promoter, underwriter, and custodian. The transaction was executed in collaboration with Al Ahly Pharos.

Tags:

debt debt watch EBRD transport

Moves

Mark Bryson-Richardson takes up position as the UK’s ambassador to Egypt

Mark Bryson-Richardson (LinkedIn) assumed his role as the new UK ambassador to Egypt, the British Embassy in Cairo said in a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. Bryson-Richardson’s term as ambassador will focus on “deepening bilateral relations through enhanced trade and investment [and] fostering collaboration in education, renewable energy, technology, and financial services to drive sustainable development,” according to the statement.

Addressing regional challenges is also on the agenda: The newly appointed ambassador says he will also focus on “supporting Egypt’s efforts to address regional challenges, particularly in Sudan and Gaza, and … advancing humanitarian cooperation.” Despite taking up the role in August, the embassy had held off on an official announcement until now.

Bryson-Richardson previously served as the British foreign secretary's representative for humanitarian affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, as well as the British ambassador to Iraq for two years until July 2023, and as director for the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe at the Department for International Development within the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

What he said: “I look forward to working closely with our Egyptian partners across a range of sectors, including trade, investment, education, and green growth — all of which contribute to sustainable development and shared prosperity. I also reaffirm the United Kingdom’s commitment to supporting Egypt’s efforts to find swift and effective solutions to regional tensions, in a way that promotes security and stability,” Bryson-Richardson said.

Tags:

Egypt-UK relations moves

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

DP World, Elsewedy Industrial Development to set up USD 20 mn cold storage facility

LOGISTICS-

USD 29 mn cold storage hub coming to 6th of October: DP World and Elsewedy Industrial Development will set up a USD 29 mn cold storage facility in 6th of October, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. The 16.2k sqm site will house eight climate-controlled chambers with 25k pallet positions for chilled and frozen goods, designed to meet international standards with an ammonia refrigeration system to cut energy use.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Tying Egypt’s exporters to an integrated cold chain: DP World said the facility will plug into its Sokhna Port and freight-forwarding network, giving food exporters and manufacturers lower supply chain costs and direct access to Greater Cairo and export corridors. Elsewedy Industrial Development added the project is part of its plan to transform its industrial parks into fully integrated production-and-logistics hubs, boosting Egyptian exports’ competitiveness.

What is cold storage and could it be the future of Egypt’s storage industry? We dove into the topic in a Hardhat published earlier this month — check it out here.

EXPANSION-

#1- Qalaa Holding’s waste management company Ecaru is competing to set up two recycling projects in the UAE and Morocco, Ahmed Esmat, head of Ecaru’s planning and follow-up department, told Al Arabiya. The solid waste recycling plant in the UAE has an investment cost of USD 40 mn, while the Moroccan plant is expected to cost USD 25 mn.

The plants won’t be Ecaru’s first projects outside Egypt, having already established or currently establishing recycling projects in Saudi Arabia, Libya, Sudan, and Qatar.

#2- Our friends at Mashreq have officially launched Mashreq Pakistan, the lender’s first fully digital retail bank outside the UAE, marking a major step in the bank’s global expansion strategy, according to a statement. “Mashreq Bank Pakistan aims to offer unparalleled digital banking solutions, built to be fully Shariah compliant,” according to the statement.

Mashreq has earmarked USD 100 mn through 2025 to fund its operations in Pakistan, where it will also roll out Mashreq Neo retail and SME offerings to drive financial inclusion, cross-border remittances, and digital payments. The bank said it plans to double its Pakistani workforce of 415 over the coming years, positioning Pakistan as a hub for scalable digital innovation.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

CI Capital Holding’s CI Capital PE for Fund Management and Investment and solar and water firm Engazaat are launching a USD 200 mn green infrastructure fund, the two said in a joint statement (pdf). The SAVE Fund will be the “first-of-its-kind green infrastructure investment fund” on the Abu Dhabi Global Market and will be followed by a mirror fund in Egypt to enable “broader investor participation and local and international capital mobilization.”

STARTUP WATCH-

#1- Local edtech Farid expanded into Saudi Arabia with the opening of a central operations office in Riyadh, the startup said in a statement (pdf). The company also inked a SAR 4.5 mn, three-year strategic partnership with Saudi human development organization Amad Association to train and certify 500 Saudi university graduates for careers in coaching and development, and provide specialized educational programs to more than 4k children and adolescents. The move marks the startup’s first regional expansion outside Egypt and comes ahead of a seed funding round in 4Q 2025, the company said.

REMEMBER- Farid secured USD 250k in a pre-seed round from Saudi businesswoman Amal bint Abdulaziz Al-Ajlan — who is also the chairwoman of Amad Association — in September of last year. The funding was set to help the company expand its platform, develop new content, recruit employees and trainers, and expand into Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

#2- Homegrown startup Duaya acquired fellow Egyptian healthtech EXMGO in a six-figure transaction, Duaya said in a statement (pdf). The acquisition will expand Duaya’s digital services by including EXMGO’s SaaS solutions for pharmacies and businesses, which has now been rebranded and relaunched as Duaya Go.

What they said: “The acquisition of EXMGO is part of our strategy to serve a larger segment of pharmacies and medical companies. It reflects our clear vision to digitize pharmacies and transform traditional sales operations into platform-based digital processes. This step will enhance market efficiency and deliver a seamless and professional purchasing experience for customers,” said CEO Ahmed Fazara.

Duaya has its eyes set on expanding into the Gulf in 2026 after reaching its target of 25k customers by the end of this year.

AVIATION-

Air Arabia Abu Dhabi will launch bi-weekly flights between Abu Dhabi and Assiut starting 4 November, the Emirati budget airline said in a statement. The new route, which marks the carrier’s third Egyptian destination, will run on Tuesdays and Fridays.

REAL ESTATE-

Mountain View launches a new mixed-use project in North Coast: Property developer Mountain View has launched its Crysta project in Sidi Abdel Rahman. The mixed-use coastal development will feature three main islands, boutique hotels and a full suite of residential, hospitality, and retail offerings.

Tags:

ALSO ON OUR RADAR aviation capital markets CI Capital DP World edtech Elsewedy Industrial Development healthcare logistics Mashreq Bank Mountain View real estate recycling startups waste management

PLANET FINANCE

GCC to remain among the top emerging market USD debt issuers this year -Fitch

GCC banks are on course to set a new debt issuance record in 2025, with USD-denominated debt set to surpass USD 60 bn this year — or USD 40 bn excluding certificates of deposit (CDs), Fitch Ratings said in a research note. The momentum — which follows last year’s high — is expected to continue into 2026, driven by strong credit growth, Fed rate cuts, refinancing needs, and tight domestic liquidity in Saudi Arabia.

GCC banks have accounted for around 30% of USD issuance by emerging-market banks so far this year — or over 60% when excluding Chinese banks.

Issuances from GCC banks this year have already reached nearly USD 55 bn, significantly higher than the USD 36 bn total in 2024 and well above the USD 23 bn in maturities due in 2025. Excluding CDs, issuance stands at USD 36 bn, already exceeding Fitch’s expectations at the start of the year. Sukuk accounted for nearly half of the non-CD issuance.

Saudi banks are dominating activity, with USD 28.3 bn in issuance, followed by banks in the UAE (USD 11 bn), Qatar (USD 8 bn), and Kuwait (USD 7 bn).

Subordinated debt issuance has surged to USD 14.5 bn, already doubling last year’s total and accounting for nearly 40% of non-CD issuance. Saudi banks were the main contributors, issuing USD 11.2 bn to support lending tied to Vision 2030 and in anticipation of tighter capital regulations. They returned to the USD Tier 2 market for the first time since 2020, making up the majority of the USD 6 bn in Tier 2 issuance by GCC banks so far this year.

AT1 issuance has also hit a new high of USD 8.45 bn in 2025, up from a total of USD 5.6 bn last year. Fitch expects most of the record USD 10 bn in AT1 instruments with first call dates in 2026 to be redeemed, due to high reset spreads and favorable market conditions.

UAE and Qatari banks have been big on senior unsecured debt issuance on the back of refinancing needs and a desire to diversify funding. This includes ESG bonds and sukuk, as well as activity in the Taiwanese Formosa market. UAE banks raised about USD 3.5 bn in floating-rate notes, while Qatari banks raised USD 1 bn. Fitch expects issuance from UAE banks to remain active given their good liquidity and solid net foreign asset positions.

Short-term CD issuance has also seen a sharp rise, reaching USD 18 bn so far in 2025, compared to just USD 3 bn in 2024. Nearly 70% of this came from Saudi banks, attracted by cheaper offshore funding available through major financial hubs such as New York, London, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Looking ahead, Fitch expects strong issuance to continue in 2026, supported by an additional USD 36 bn in maturities, ongoing credit growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and persistent tight liquidity in the Saudi market. Liquidity will remain a key credit challenge for Saudi banks next year, which it expects to lead to continued reliance on external funding. The sector’s net foreign liability position is likely to remain above 3% of total assets, though foreign funding still represents a modest 11.4% of sector liabilities as of end-August. The recent launch of residential mortgage-backed securities in Saudi Arabia could provide a new source of local-currency funding, given banks’ significant mortgage portfolios.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning as global investors await the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate move later today. Japan’s Nikkei reversed earlier losses to rise nearly 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also up 0.7%. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 was flat at the open, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.1%.

Over on Wall Street, futures are little changed after a losing session for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq yesterday.

EGX30	34,841	-0.9% (YTD: +17.2%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 48.04	Sell 48.18
USD (CIB)	Buy 48.05	Sell 48.15
Interest rates (CBE)	22.00% deposit	23.00% lending
Tadawul	10,519	+0.9% (YTD: -12.6%)
ADX	10,064	+0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
DFM	6,000	-0.7% (YTD: +16.3%)
S&P 500	6,607	-0.1% (YTD: +12.3%)
FTSE 100	9,196	-0.9% (YTD: +12.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,372	-1.3% (YTD: +9.7%)
Brent crude	USD 68.50	+1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.10	+2.0%
Gold	USD 3,725	+0.2%
BTC	USD 116,877	+1.3% (YTD: +24.9%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	920.63	+0.1% (YTD: +18.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.56	+0.1% (YTD: +7.6%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.36	+4.3% (YTD: -5.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.9% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.0 bn (9.6% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 17.2% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+4.6%), Egypt Aluminum (+1.2%), and Eastern Company (+0.8%).

In the red: Misr Cement (-3.9%), Raya Holding (-3.7%), and Orascom Development (-3.2%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

E-finance’s board approved paying out dividends of EGP 0.176 per share on its 1H earnings, the company said in a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. The general assembly is set to greenlight the payout at a future meeting.

Tags:

debt Financial Markets Planet Finance

HARDHAT

How can Egypt unlock its real estate export potential?

Egypt’s real estate export market has big potential, but changes are needed: Setting clear policies and creating an attractive investment environment for foreign investors would support Egypt’s real estate exports, Cairo Center for Economic and Strategic Studies Director Abdel Moneim El Sayed told EnterpriseAM. Real estate exports alone could bring the country USD 10–15 bn in revenues annually, but to achieve this, the sector needs to be properly organized, according to El Sayed.

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Real estate exports? Real estate exports are the sale of real estate properties, including apartments, villas, or commercial spaces, to non-nationals or nationals living abroad. While the property never leaves the country, the money comes in foreign currency from abroad, positioning the transaction as an export in economic terms.

Why is it important? The real estate sector is one of the most important economic sectors in Egypt, representing 20% of the country’s GDP, El Sayed told us. Egypt has a real estate portfolio exceeding USD 200 bn. Real estate exports are considered a key way to bolster USD revenues, especially given the growing demand from foreigners for residential and hotel units in various projects, he added.

DATA POINT- Egyptian property purchases by foreigners and non-residents exceeded USD 1.6 bn in 2024, most of which were made by Egyptians living abroad. This figure is expected to increase in 2025, particularly following the launch of Egypt’s real estate export initiative last year.

Egypt’s real estate market is big, but it faces several challenges that weigh on real estate exports. These include the absence of accurate data on export volumes and the lack of a unified authority to regulate and develop the sector, unlike international models, El Sayed said.

One issue is that market supply does not align with the wants of foreign buyers, who usually seek ready-to-move-in properties, El Sayed explained. Housing units are normally not delivered fully finished, and so developers need to adjust their offerings to meet global demand, according to El Sayed.

Some investors looking to enter the local property market face issues related to fees and administrative requirements within compounds. In addition to government-administered requirements and fees, developers need to obtain approvals to sell units and face extra charges when transferring ownership, all of which act as obstacles for investors, El Sayed noted.

At the government level, the absence of legal regulation also discourages foreign investors from buying Egyptian real estate out of fear of legal disputes that could take years to resolve, El Sayed said. While real estate brokers play a major role in the market, they require better regulation. Some operate without licenses or oversight, leading to unfair practices that affect both prices and the buyer experience, El Sayed said. Regulating the local real estate market through an electronic transaction and registration platform, licensing brokers, and ensuring developers adhere to construction timelines and plans could help, he told us.

Attention also needs to be paid to real estate contracts in Egypt. In many cases, they lack transparency and rely on adhesion contracts that put buyers at a disadvantage against developers. One way to overcome this hurdle is by creating standardized preliminary and final sales contracts that protect buyer rights and funds without infringing on developer rights, El Sayed told us.

There is a need to accelerate property registration, possibly through a unified property ownership system that can streamline ownership transfers. The government should look to establish a “transparent, secure, and efficient system” for property registration and transactions using a decentralized digital database to secure transactions against fraud, with encrypted electronic trading and ownership verification, El Sayed told us.

The government should also facilitate and develop a comprehensive strategy to market local property abroad, identify target markets, and classify available units on a unified electronic system, El Sayed told us.

There’s been movement in this direction already, with the New Urban Communities Authority inking a cooperation protocol with the Federation of Arab Engineers last month to promote Egyptian real estate exports in Arab markets. The agreement aims to support coordination between the two sides to facilitate the marketing of Egyptian real estate to foreign buyers in the region.

A real estate exports-focused government entity could be underway, as El Sayed confirmed earlier reports we heard in December about the government mulling establishing a real estate fund or company to oversee international sales. The company would be specialized in managing real estate export and rental activities in foreign currency, with expected annual revenues of USD 3-5 bn — potentially more depending on the volume of exports, he told us.

What will the authority be in charge of? It will set clear rules for contracts, finishing standards, and developers’ financial criteria, El Sayed said. An escrow system should be used so that money goes straight into the construction account and can’t be used for anything else, ensuring trust and transparency, he added.

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CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

17-18 September (Wednesday-Friday): The 2025 Cairo Regional Forum on Financing Renewables, Green Hydrogen and Green Ammonia, Nile University, Cairo.

24-26 September (Wednesday-Friday): The launch of the 2025 Egyptian Entrepreneurial Sector Diagnostic Report at El Gouna.

24-27 September (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

29-30 September-6 October (Monday-Tuesday): Techne Summit Cairo, Sultan Hussein Kamel Palace, Cairo

29 September-6 October (Monday-Monday): Egypt Innovation Week

30 September (Tuesday): The Egypt-South Korea Economic Cooperation and Partnership Forum.

The Egyptian-Moroccan Business Council to send a delegation of 23 local companies to Rabat.

The Engineering Export Council of Egypt will ship a commercial delegation to Russia to ramp up exports to European markets.

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay.

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026.

OCTOBER

1 October (Wednesday): IMF mission expected to visit Egypt for talks on combined fifth and sixth reviews of the EFF arrangement.

1 October (Wednesday): Applications for alternative housing for old rent tenants will open through an online platform or at post offices nationwide.

2 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

4-6 October (Saturday-Monday):Techne Summit Alexandria, Alexandria Bibliotheca, Alexandria

7 October (Tuesday): The 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): HACE-Hotel Expo, Egypt International Exhibitions Center.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): EgyMedica Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

12-16 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo.

19-20 October (Sunday-Monday): Egypt to host the fifth edition of the Aswan Forum.

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Stone Africa Expo, Cairo International Conference Center.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

Mid-October: Capmas to publish the findings of its 2023-2024 income and expenditure survey.

NOVEMBER

1 November (Saturday): The official opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

16-19 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23-25 November (Sunday-Tuesday): NEBU Expo 2025 gold and jewelry exhibition, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, New Cairo.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

https://entlaq.com/events/2

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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