It’s all about manufacturing and exports this morning

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Remittances surge to USD 3.6 bn in November

Good morning, friends, and a very happy Christmas Eve to all celebrating today. We have one of those compact “quietly good news” issues for you this morning as you look forward to a day off tomorrow.

Manufacturing is the star of the show this morning as the business community continues to chase export opportunities and look for ways to benefit from export-substitution plays:

El Markaby Steel is closing in on contracts for an EGP 1 bn plant;
Yet another Turkish garment manufacturer has set up shop in Egypt;
EGX-listed fintech player Valu has gotten its final license for its operations in Jordan;
And Al Amal will assemble a new Dongfeng automotive brand in Egypt, including a hybrid vehicle that we think falls into a category of cars that’s key to our EV transition. (Go read Egypt’s EV future is here — it just has a backup engine if you haven’t already.)

The Madbouly government also wants in on the action: It inked MoUs yesterday that will see us export natural gas and petroleum products to Syria as our onetime partner in the UAR looks to rebuild. The move helps cement Egypt as the premier hub in the East Med for both conventional and renewable energy.

^^ We have the rundown on all of this and more in this morning’s news well, below.

BUT FIRST- It’s PMI day: S&P Global will release purchasing managers’ index figures measuring non-oil private sector activity for December this morning. Activity jumped back into the green in November, breaking a nine-month stretch in contraction territory.

WEATHER- We’ve got three days of warmer daytime weather heading our way, with the mercury set hit 22°C today, 24°C on Wednesday, and 26°C on Thursday before the daytime high falls back into the teens from Friday, according to our favourite weather app.

PSA- Tomorrow is a national holiday in Egypt in observance of Coptic Christmas. We’re publishing tomorrow morning, but will be off on Thursday to enjoy a three-day weekend. We’ll be back in your inboxes at our customary hour on Sunday, 11 January. A very Merry Christmas to you all, wonderful people.

Watch this space

TAX — The Finance Ministry is preparing a fresh package of tax incentives following a round of consultations with the business community, a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM. The move serves as a bridge toward a total overhaul of the tax code as the government clears legacy files before introducing a new Income Tax Act.

The Tax Authority will extend its seizure-relief mechanism through the end of 2026, according to a document seen by EnterpriseAM. Taxpayers can have seizures lifted by paying 1% of outstanding liabilities on unappealed assessments, or 10% where liabilities stem from committee decisions or enforceable court rulings, with the rest settled in installments. The measure doesn’t apply to companies in liquidation, that have permanently shut down, or certain firms with leased headquarters.

INFRASTRUCTURE — EUR 215 mn 10th of Ramadan railway awarded: A consortium of France’s Alstom and local contractors Concrete Plus and Rowad Modern Engineering has been awarded a EUR 215 mn contract to build the 10th of Ramadan logistics rail line, a source with knowledge of the contract tells us. The contractors will build a 63.5 km corridor linking the 10th of Ramadan dry port to the Suez Canal.

The pattern: This is the second major freight victory for the Alstom-led alliance in two months, following their EUR 540 mn contract for the Cairo-Alexandria bypass. The Madbouly government aims to see rail freight capacity grow from 8 mn tons per year in 2026 to 13 mn tons a year by 2030.

SPORTS

The Pharaohs secured their spot in the 2025 AFCON quarter-finals yesterday after a grueling 3-1 extra-time victory over Benin in Agadir. The team remains in the coastal city of Agadir for their quarter-final clash this Saturday. They will face either Côte d’Ivoire or Burkina Faso.

Data point

42.5% — that’s how much remittances from Egyptians living abroad grew y-o-y during the first 11 months of 2025, reaching a record USD 37.5 bn, according to a statement (pdf) from the Central Bank of Egypt. The momentum accelerated late in the year, with November inflows jumping nearly 40% y-o-y to USD 3.6 bn.

IN CONTEXT– The surge makes clear that Egyptian expats have confidence in the float of the EGP. Remittances provided a key buffer for our FX reserves last year as Suez Canal revenues fell through the floor amid ongoing harassment of Red Sea shipping by Houthi forces.

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The big story abroad

The chatter about the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has shifted to the US’ energy agenda and what it stands to gain from the move and from dictating policy in the country. US President Donald Trump clearly thinks there’s plenty to gain — saying there’s a “tremendous amount of wealth” up for grabs for American oil firms in Venezuela. He also said in an interview with NBC that the US could start offering subsidies to energy firms in a bid to encourage them to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry, which has seen production fall to less than 1 mn barrels a day, down from 3.7 mn in 1970 on the back of mismanagement, corruption and sanctions.

Shares of top US refiners have surged since the capture of Maduro on expectations that US Gulf Coast refiners could snap up hefty volumes of Venezuelan crude now that Trump is looking to ease sanctions and revive production.

^^ The must-read on the topic: What is Trump’s plan for Venezuelan oil?

This all comes as Maduro made his first court appearance, pleading not guilty to charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy and possession of machine guns and destructive devices.

MEANWHILE- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s new generation of chips, Rubin, are now in full production. The chips can deliver up to five times the AI computing strength of its predecessor, Blackwell. Huang also touted other software the firm is working on, including networking switches that can link several machines as one, and self-driving car software. (Reuters)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at Egypt’s standing in the Climate Change Performance Index, which measures national progress across emissions, renewables, energy use, and climate policy.

Christmas is just the beginning. At Somabay, the celebrations unfold day by day, night by night, building all the way into the New Year. From rooftop takeovers and beach parties to late-night performances and full-band shows, the season is curated to let you choose your moment and celebrate it your way — right through the final countdown and beyond.

New Year’s and beyond at Somabay.

Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

Egypt inks energy deal to supply natural gas, petroleum products to Syria as it rebuilds

Egypt’s bid to position itself as the premier energy hub in the eastern Mediterranean got another boost yesterday on the Levant side of the equation as the Oil Ministry signed two MoUs to help fuel Syria’s reconstruction with the supply of natural gas and petroleum products.

What’s in the agreement: Egypt will use its floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) and the national gas grid to regasify and transport fuel to Damascus for power generation. The agreements also open the door for Egyptian technical expertise to be used in rehabilitating Syria’s midstream and downstream energy infrastructure, according to a statement from Egypt’s Cabinet.

The Madbouly government made its positioning crystal clear in the statement, saying that the MoU reflects our position as a “logistics hub for trading all types of conventional and renewable energy.”

Egypt inked a similar supply agreement with Lebanon last week and has also locked-in a long-term transit agreement with Cyprus, part of a broader strategy to position ourselves as the East Med’s premier energy hub. Other components of the strategy include fuel bunkering facilities on the Suez Canal and the export of green fuel and green electrons to Europe.

We have four FSRUs in place right now, including the Hoegh Galleon, Energos Power, Energos Eskimo, and Energos Winter. The first three are moored in Ain Sokhna, while the Winter is in Damietta. The Hoegh Gandria will arrive in Egypt at the end of this year to replace the Galleon on a 10-year lease. The four current vessels give us c. 2.7 bcf / day of regasification capacity. We exclusively reported last month that the Oil Ministry had shelved plans to phase-out the FSRUs.

Other oil + gas news

Egypt paid the UAE’s Dana Gas USD 50 mn in overdue receivables, a move that comes as the regional player plans to drill seven new natural gas wells in 2026, according to a statement (pdf) from the company. The drilling project is part of a broader program to drill a total of 11 new wells here. Dana reported a discovery at its North El Basant 1 concession last month.

Why it matters: Paying dues to energy companies leads debottlenecks the exploration activity that in turn supports growth in domestic production. Dana says its 2026 drilling program should save Egypt over USD 1 bn by reducing reliance on imported LNG and mazut.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Valu gets regulatory green light to start operations in Jordan in 1Q 2026

EGX-listed fintech player Valu plans to kick off operations in Jordan this quarter after lining up final approval from the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ), according to a statement (pdf) from the company. It will launch operations in Jordan under a specialized finance license that allows it to deliver a range of financing solutions.

Valu first got the green light from the CBJ last July to roll out BNPL services.

Who will lead Valu Jordan? Mohammad Al Yousef has been appointed as CEO to “drive Valu’s local strategy, operations, and expansion,” bringing over 18 years of experience in fintech, e-commerce, tech, and telecom to the role. Former Jordanian investment minister Mothanna Gharaibeh will serve as chairman.

A broader regional growth strategy: “Jordan is a key pillar in Valu’s regional expansion strategy,” Chief Market Expansion and Strategy Officer Habiba Naguib said. And while we don’t know which markets Valu is looking to step into, we know which ones it isn’t interested in — “competing in markets like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, where giants like Tabby and Tamara dominate, doesn’t align with our vision,” CEO Walid Hassouna told us last year. Look instead for Valu’s next move to be in Africa or North Africa, he told us in an extended interview after the company released its 9M 2025 results.

What they said: “Jordan represents a strategic growth market for Valu, underpinned by strong consumer demand for flexible, accessible financial solutions and a rapidly evolving digital payments ecosystem with ongoing support from the Central Bank of Jordan.”

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Business for Teens raises six-figure pre-seed to fuel expansion

Local edtech startup Business for Teens has closed a six-figure pre-seed round led by training and sales expert Salah Abu El Magd, with participation from a group of angel investors, according to a press release (pdf). Founded in 2024 by Nadeem Barakat (LinkedIn), the platform teaches entrepreneurship and financial literacy to 10-16-year-olds through startup simulations and project-based learning.

Why it matters: The teen demographic is a sweet spot for edtech right now. Unlike early childhood education (which is crowded), the K-12 and higher ed markets (which are tightly regulated), the 10-16 age bracket outside of formal school settings is a critical gap where parents are willing to pay for soft skills like money management, leadership, and sales.

“We are selling an investment, not charity,” Barakat tells us, distinguishing the company from non-profit initiatives. “Paid models drive higher commitment, and unlike free programs, our profit-driven model allows us to hire top talent and scale sustainably,” he added.

The strategy: Scaling requires a pivot from service delivery to a “hybrid licensing model.” While the company currently uses its own trainers to build brand equity, the long-term play is “train-the-trainer” licensing, said Barakat. He also wants to lean heavily into tech, saying, “Eighty percent of guidance will be automated via our platform — using AI tools for business plan reviews — allowing us to reserve high-touch mentoring for the top-tier 20% of projects.”

The Saudi play: The edtech has already partnered up with 10 schools across Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but plans to push deeper into the Saudi market.

The big picture: The ultimate goal is vertical integration, with Barakat saying he’s building a “production line” for the private sector. “Business for Teens is the factory that produces the talent,” he says. The roadmap includes a dedicated incubator for the top 5-7% of graduates who launch revenue-generating startups, alongside a recruitment arm to place talent at major corporations.

What’s next: The company is eyeing aggressive growth, targeting 30 school partnerships and 6k students by the end of the year, with three new program levels slated to launch in 1Q 2026.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Standard Chartered bullish on EGP for 2026 as FX inflows, cooling inflation signal pivot to growth

Egypt enters 2026 on a solid macroeconomic footing, driven by expected growth in FX inflows, cooling inflation, and “tangible progress” on its ongoing reform program, Standard Chartered said in a note to clients.

The bank now sees the EGP strengthening, revising its exchange rate forecast to EGP 47.50 to the greenback by the end of 1Q 2026, compared to its previous forecast of EGP 49.00. Standard Chartered expects the exchange rate to weaken by the end of the year to EGP 49.00 / USD against its previous projection of EGP 51.

This is hardly a fluke: The currency’s expected strengthening is backed by long-term GCC investments and the continued momentum of the government’s privatization program. Egypt has recently received the the USD 3.5 bn cash portion of the Alam El Roum development agreement from Qatari Diar. The government has reportedly set a target to raise USD 3-4 bn by October 2026 through privatization, with expected transactions including Banque du Caire, Safi, Wataniya, and the remaining stake in Bank of Alexandria. The Gabal El Zeit wind farm is also reportedly on the auction block. EGX head Islam Azzam said the EGX expects at least eight new offerings in 2026, including players in the healthcare and tourism sectors.

The expected disbursement of a USD 2.5 bn IMF tranche in early 2026 will also bolster FX reserves and provide further momentum for the reform program, Standard Chartered said.

Easing inflation + rising GDP growth

The bank expects inflation to hit 11% by the end of 1H 2026, driven by lower commodity prices and improved local supply conditions. This cooldown will grant the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) the necessary room to begin cutting interest rates, thereby slashing financing costs for businesses. Inflation, which was nearly halved to a record 12.3% at the end of last November compared to January’s reading, gave the CBE room to implement broader rate cuts totaling 725 bps throughout 2025.

Meanwhile, real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in the current fiscal year, fueled by manufacturing, trade, and hydrocarbons. The bank links the anticipated economic recovery this year to the normalization of Suez Canal revenues and supply chains — a variable that remains contingent on a de-escalation of regional geopolitical tensions.

What to look for

Stability is the name of the game: The focus for Egypt in the year ahead is on “restoring predictability” — the most valuable currency for investors seeking long-term business sustainability, CEO and Head of Coverage of Standard Chartered Egypt Mohamed Gad said. “With inflation easing and external balances strengthening, we expect confidence to build further across the private sector, unlocking new opportunities for growth and long-term investment,” Gad said.

More Chinese car assembly, Elmarakby’s EGP 1 bn vertical play, and Turkish denim lands in SCZone

More Chinese automotive assembly here

Al Amal Group plans to invest USD 20 mn in the local assembly of three new models of Chinese automaker Dongfeng’s Forthing brand, Chairman of Al Amal Group Amr Soliman told the domestic press. Al Amal will launch a gasoline-powered model in mid-January, a hybrid version by mid-2026, and a fully-electric model by the end of the year. Initial production capacity for the Forthing model is estimated at 5k units in 2026, targeting the domestic market primarily with the option to export “once conditions stabilize,” Soliman said.

In line with our automotive localization efforts: The Madbouly government has made it a priority to localize the assembly of vehicles as the first step in its plan to truly localize the automotive sector. It updated the Automotive Industry Development Program last year with the goal of attracting more investments and deepening the localization of the sector.

Dive deeper: We think hybrid vehicles will be one of the sweet spots for the industry as domestic charging infrastructure is built out.

Elmarakby Steel to invest EGP 1 bn in vertical integration play

Steel manufacturer Elmarakby Steel is set to sign contracts this month for a new EGP 1 bn plant in New October, Chairman Hassan Elmarakby tells EnterpriseAM. The facility will specialize in producing cold-drawn wire rods — a key production input the company previously sourced through imports. Construction is slated to begin immediately after signing, with the new lines expected to come online by the end of 2026.

Why it matters: This is a strategic pivot toward vertical integration and import substitution. By manufacturing its own inputs, Elmarakby is insulating its margins from FX volatility and supply chain shocks. The move could give the firm a significant price advantage in both national project tenders and export markets.

The big picture: The investment is part of Elmarakby’s broader roadmap to hit EGP 6.5 bn in total investments by 2030.

Eroglu Moda to set up garment factory in Qantara

Turkey’s Eroglu Moda signed a USD 5.6 mn contract yesterday to establish a new garment factory in the SCZone’s Qantara West Industrial Zone, marking the latest addition to the rapidly densifying industrial zone, according to a statement. The self-funded project aims to produce 1 mn pieces of denim and apparel annually, with 95% of production destined for export, and is expected to create 700 direct jobs upon full operation.

In context: A growing number of Turkish apparelmakers are shifting manufacturing to Egypt to hedge against rising domestic costs and leverage Egypt’s trade access to the US and European Union.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

AI investment drives stock and bond records while rising costs pose inflation risk

Investors banking on AI growth and falling rates may be overlooking AI’s inflationary risk. The data center construction boom has ignited rallies across stocks and bonds, but the surge in demand for electricity, chips, and skilled labor is pushing prices higher. As “AI-flation” threatens to keep the Federal Reserve cautious, markets are heading into a year where the price of building the future could test today’s valuations.

By the numbers: The S&P 500 climbed 16% in 2025, lifted by monetary easing and enthusiasm for AI. However, the rally was unusually narrow. Just seven major tech groups generated half of all market earnings, pulling European and Asian equities — and US Treasury bonds — to record highs alongside them, Bloomberg data shows.

The inflationary feedback loop

While investors expect falling interest rates, the AI build-out could stall the easing cycle — or push rates higher. Hyperscalers including Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are locked in a USD multi-tn data center race. Capital spending is projected to hit USD 4 tn by 2030, with USD 440 bn next year alone, Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg estimate. This spending strains real-world resources — energy and advanced chips — creating bottlenecks and price pressures, analysts told Reuters, keeping US inflation above the Fed’s 2% target through 2027, Morgan Stanley predicts.

A pickup in inflation and tighter money as a result could be the “pin that pricks the bubble,” Royal London Asset Management Head of Multi Asset Trevor Greetham warns. Higher rates would hit speculative tech stocks hardest, raising funding costs while squeezing margins across the AI supply chain.

The strain is already visible in corporate earnings, where Oracle shares fell late last year after revealing soaring spending, Broadcom slid after warnings that high margins would be squeezed, and HP Inc. expects net income pressure in late 2026 as memory chip costs rise with data center demand.

AI’s bond market bonanza

The AI boom is also reshaping credit markets. To fund massive data center projects, tech firms and utilities are issuing record columns of high-grade debt, Bloomberg reports. This wave pushed corporate bond trading to record levels in 2025, averaging USD 50 bn a day, up from USD 46 bn in 2024.

As new AI-linked bonds flood the market, investors are rotating aggressively, selling older debt to make room for fresh paper. This has fueled a growing secondary market for private credit, which Morgan Stanley’s Rehan Latif called “the biggest single opportunity coming into 2026.” However, rising use of credit default swaps suggests that investors are quietly hedging against an AI unwind.

Is it a bubble?

With valuations stretched, comparisons to past bubbles are growing louder. The top 10 stocks now account for 40% of the S&P 500 — a level unseen since the 1960s — while the Shiller P/E ratio, a long-term, inflation-adjusted valuation gauge, trails only the highs of the early 2000s. However, today’s tech giants show stronger balance sheets and real bottom line growth.

The boom has a circular quality that unsettles skeptics. OpenAI’s USD 1 tn infrastructure pledge largely flows back to the same listed tech giants funding it, creating a closed revenue loop that magnifies both gains and risks.

Still, Wall Street expects the stock market can secure a fourth consecutive year of gains in 2026, following double-digit increases from 2023 through 2025. However, the mood is one of cautious optimism, according to the Wall Street Journal. While analysts generally predict upward movement, they acknowledge the path forward will be tighter and more difficult than the torrid rallies of previous years.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Yesterday’s global stock rally pushed Asia-Pacific stocks to a broadly positive start to trading today, with virtually all markets — except South Korea’s Kospi index — in the green. Wall Street futures, meanwhile, are trading flat after the Dow Jones closed yesterday at an all-time high, driven by energy, financial, and defense stocks.

EGX30	40,677	-0.5% (YTD: -2.8%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.26	Sell 47.39
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.27	Sell 47.37
Interest rates (CBE)	20.00% deposit	21.00% lending
Tadawul	10,325	-0.4% (YTD: -1.6%)
ADX	9,944	-0.5% (YTD: -0.5%)
DFM	6,130	+0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)
S&P 500	6,902	+0.6% (YTD: +0.8%)
FTSE 100	10,005	+0.5% (YTD: +0.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,924	+1.3% (YTD: +2.3%)
Brent crude	USD 61.56	-0.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.47	-1.7%
Gold	USD 4,451	0.0%
BTC	USD 93,883	+1.0% (YTD: +6.8%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	994.42	+0.1% (YTD: +0.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.69	-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.90	+2.7% (YTD: -0.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.2 bn (16.2% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is down 2.8% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Aluminum (+3.2%), Alexandria Mineral Oils (+2.5%), and E-finance (+2.3%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-5.3%), Orascom Development (-4.2%), and Ibnsina Pharma (-3.7%).

CALENDAR

2026

JANUARY

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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