Inflation slowdown loses some momentum in January

Tuesday, 11 Feb 2025

Inflation slowdown loses some momentum in January

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Today at a glance

Economy

Inflation slowdown loses some momentum in January.

Diplomacy

Trump threatens to withhold of aid to Egypt and Jordan if they don't take in forcibly dispaced Gazans

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Beltone Leasing inks EGP 4 bn syndicated leasing agreement with Al Qalaa Al Hamraa.

Capital markets

Damietta Container and Cargo Handling files for a capital hike.

What We're Tracking Today

SCA’s Rabie sees a pickup in Suez Canal traffic as early as next month.

Also on our Radar

Autograph Collection to set up new hotel in Somabay.

PLANET FINANCE

Trump’s steel, aluminum tariffs plan sees non-US metal stocks fall and US steel stocks rise.

Going Green

MENA investment in global green climate tech falls, in line with broader trends.

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt’s SCA sees a pickup in Suez Canal traffic as early as next month

Good morning, all. The local news cycle has picked up after a slower start to the week — in this issue we have January’s inflation reading, everything you need to know about Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty’s time in Washington, and the fruits of Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib’s visit to Spain.

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is in for another cold day, with a high of 17°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s just as cold in Alexandria, with a high of 17°C and a low of 11°C.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Spanish hospitality giant Barceló eyes more Egypt investments: Spanish hospitality group Barceló is in negotiations to acquire and participate in several projects in Egypt, CEO Raúl González said in a meeting with Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib during his time in Spain, according to a statement. Barceló is interested in projects in Cairo, Sharm El Sheikh, Hurghada, and Marsa Alam and has an “ambitious investment plan” for the local market, González said. The two sides also discussed the possibility of developing former government ministry buildings into hotels.

AND- El Khatib also met with Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo — the two sides touched on ways to enhance economic ties between the two nations. They looked into efforts to boost trade, namely in the renewables, infrastructure, technology, ready-made garments, textile, furniture, agriculture, and transport sectors. Cuerpo said that a high-level Spanish delegation will visit Egypt to explore potential investments.

#2- Will we finally see Zamalek’s Foda Tower come to life? After half a century of legal disputes, the infamous Foda Tower in Zamalek has a new owner with an ambitious development plan. Morshedy Group bought the tower for EGP 750 mn from an unnamed state-owned bank and will work to transform the 50-storey tower into a luxury hotel and residential project, according to a press release (pdf).

And resolving the parking issue: The developer also acquired a nearby 4k sqm plot, which will house a parking lot that will service the tower — a parking lot of utmost importance seeing as the lack of the necessary parking facilities is one of the main reasons why the tower never came to life. Over the past years we saw proposals into taking land from the nearby Gezira Sporting Club or Fish Garden and turning that into a parking lot to service the tower, but they were quickly shut down.

Zamalek residents are well familiar with the tower and its rich history: The tower was developed in the late 70s with plans of making it the city’s tallest skyscraper before they came to a halt and it was never fully developed.

Want the full story? Cairobserver has more on the tower.

RED SEA WATCH-

SCA sees a pickup in Suez Canal traffic as early as next month: Suez Canal Authority head Osama Rabie expects traffic in the canal to gradually normalize by late March and fully recover by mid-year, provided that the ceasefire in Gaza holds and the second phase of the truce goes through, he said in an interview on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 14:15). The statement comes on the heels of a recent charm offensive by Rabie that saw him reassuring representatives of 23 leading shipping players about improving conditions in the Red Sea.

Another vote for traffic resuming soon: “We see Red Sea traffic picking up late 1Q or early 2Q 2025,” Marine services company Zenith Enterprise CEO Amr Kataya told Al Arabiya.

ICYMI- The shipping industry’s outlook is somewhat less optimistic: Shipping giant Maersk last week said it doesn’t see Suez Canal traffic picking up before the middle of the year, anticipating that the waterway would welcome back vessels in a major way by the end of the year. Other shipping players including MSC and Mitsui OSK are also still avoiding the Red Sea as they cite security risks.

The lay of the land: Around 30-32 ships pass through the waterway daily, down from 72-75 vessels before the war on Gaza, Rabie said. Revenues from the canal are projected to dip by USD 7 bn in the fiscal year ending June 2025 — down nearly 61-62% — Rabie added, expanding on figures released by Ittihideya in late 2024.

The story got ink in the foreign business press: Bloomberg.

DATA POINT-

Egypt’s foreign debt inched up 1.5% q-o-q to USD 155.2 bn during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from the USD 152.9 bn recorded at the end of FY 2023-24, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On an annual basis, the country’s external debt fell by just under 5.7% from the USD 164.5 bn recorded in the first quarter of the last fiscal year. Medium- and long-term debt accounted for some 82% of the country’s total foreign debt with USD 127.5 bn, while short-term debt made up the remaining USD 27.7 bn.

REMEMBER- Egypt returned to international debt markets with its first USD bond issuance in nearly two years last month, issuing USD 2 bn in five- and eight-year bonds. The absence from international debt markets came on the back of high global interest rates and domestic currency market instability, which had discouraged the issuance of USD-denominated debt on international markets.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The international scene is once again rife with potential conflict, after an unexpected announcement from Hamas threatened to reignite conflict in the region and put an end to the precarious ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

Gaza truce is hanging in the balance: Hamas said yesterday it will delay releasing Israeli captives indefinitely, citing Israel opening fire on Palestinians, as well as delays in allowing return to northern Gaza and delivering humanitarian aid. Israel denied any violations, and instructed its military to prepare “for any possible scenario.”

Trump butts in: While mediators and international powers are scrambling to save the situation, US President Trump advised Israel to cancel the agreement and “let hell break loose” if Hamas does not comply by Saturday noon. Trump also threatened to cut off aid to Egypt and Jordan if they refuse to take in forcibly displaced Palestinians. (Bloomberg | CNN | NYTimes | Reuters)

SPEAKING OF TRUMP- The latest trade salvo saw the president impose 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum, in a move that will impact Mexico and Canada as the US’ top foreign metal suppliers. The new measures are reportedly set to take effect on 4 March. (Bloomberg | CNBC | FT)

IN THE BUSINESS WORLD- Elon Musk and a group of co-investors submitted a whopping USD 97.4 bn bid to fully acquire ChatGPT maker OpenAI. “No thank you,” CEO Sam Altman responded in a post on X. Musk was one of OpenAI’s co-founders, before leaving in 2018. (CNBC | CNN | Reuters)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at MENA investments in global climate tech, which saw a 28% y-o-y dip in the 12 months leading up to September 2024.

Tags:

Suez Canal What We're Tracking Today

Somabay Welcomes World Aquatics Open Water World Cup for the Third Year

Somabay proudly hosts the World Aquatics Open Water World Cup for the third consecutive year, reinforcing its status as a top watersports destination. The training camp will run from 18-22 February at Somabay’s state-of-the-art OneFlow Aquatics Centre, preparing athletes from 21 countries for the competition. From 21-22 February, they will compete in three races, further cementing Somabay’s appeal for international swimming events.

Economy

Egypt's inflation slowdown loses some momentum in January

Annual headline urban inflation dipped to 24.0% in January, marking a 0.1 percentage point drop from the 24.1% recorded in December, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. This figure marks the nation’s lowest inflation reading since December 2022 when inflation recorded 21.3%, which marked the beginning of an upward trend that has been slowing down for three consecutive months. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 1.3 percentage points to 1.5%.

F&B price inflation reversed its downward trend: Food and beverage price inflation — the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation — inched up 0.5 percentage points in January to 20.8%. On a monthly basis, food and beverages prices were up by 1.8%, offsetting a drop that lasted for two consecutive months — food and beverage prices saw monthly declines of 1.5% and 1.9% in December and November, respectively. Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed identified meat and poultry as helping drive the trend, in a comment to EnterpriseAM, which she said “might be linked to seasonal factors.”

Healthcare prices had a big impact on the month’s inflation reading: “We expected inflation to slow to 23% y-o-y, with m-o-m inflation at around 0.5-0.8%. This month’s results were driven by a 4.8% monthly rise in healthcare service prices, primarily due to higher medicine costs,” economist Mona Bedair told EnterpriseAM.

Annual core inflation — which excludes volatile items like food and fuel — decreased by 0.6 percentage points from December’s 23.2% to record 22.6%, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation stood at 1.7% in January, compared to 0.9% in December 2024.

Was the modest slowdown of headline inflation anticipated? The reading came in line with the forecast by local analysts polled by Morgan Stanley last month, who cited a “recent softness” in fruit and vegetable prices. However, it was 1.0 percentage point higher than the median projection of 17 analysts in a Reuters poll last week, who saw annual urban consumer inflation to have fallen to 23.0% y-o-y in January.

“January inflation came in higher than our estimate of 22.8% y-o-y and 0.6% m-o-m. Other than the m-o-m increase in food and beverage prices, medical care prices increased 4.8% m-o-m, clothing and footwear prices increased 1.7% m-o-m, furniture and equipment prices increased 1.6% m-o-m, and hotels and restaurants prices increased 1.0% m-o-m,” HC’s Heba Mounir told EnterpriseAM.

REMEMBER- The central bank decided to extend its inflation targets to an average of 7% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2026 and 5% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2028 during its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting in an effort to “allow for more room to weather price shocks without requiring further stringent monetary tightening.” The CBE was previously targeting inflation to average 7% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2024 and 5% ±2 percentage points by 4Q 2026.

CAN WE SAY THE WORST IS OVER?

Inflation could see a sharp dip this year thanks to the base effect: Some analysts see the downward trend slowing after January, with Morgan Stanley seeing stronger consumer demand for Ramadan accelerating monthly inflation in February and March, before eventually falling to 14-15% y-o-y, aided by strong base effects from last year. Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI sees inflation reaching around 16% y-o-y by February, but “temporary spikes from further price hikes will keep it above the CBE’s 5-9% target range,” the agency said in its latest country risk report for Egypt. Fitch sees inflation reaching 15.7% by the end of the year, with average inflation throughout the year coming in at 18.4%, down from 29% in 2024.

What can we expect from February’s inflation reading? “We believe some pressures are expected to persist in February reading, mainly those related to seasonal imports for Ramadan, and the education item expected to be released,” Ahmed told us.

A slow down to a single digit by April? “The headline rate will decline sharply in February as earlier falls in the EGP fall out of the annual price comparison, though inflation will remain above the upper bound of the CBE’s 7 ±2% inflation target range. Inflation should slow back to a single digit pace by April,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston said in a note.

What does this mean for interest rates? Some believe that the sustained downward trajectory suggests that there is room for the Central Bank of Egypt to start its monetary easing cycle when its Monetary Policy Committee meets next week to decide on interest rates, although the slight dip could probably affect the size of the potential cut. “There’s room for the CBE to reduce interest rates by around 100-200 bps, but it’s more likely for it to fall by 100 bps due to the slower-than-expected drop in the inflation reading,” Bedair told us.

2025 projections: HC’s Mounir sees interest rates going down by around 500 bps by the end of the year, as she sees “inflation slowing throughout 2025, supported by a positive base effect.” Meanwhile, Bedair anticipates “an 800-1k bps reduction in rates throughout the year, assuming that there are no unexpected circumstances affecting the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation.

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CAPMAS economy inflation interest rates

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Diplomacy

Trump threatens to withhold of aid to Egypt and Jordan if they don't take in forcibly dispaced Gazans

Trump meets Egyptian, Jordanian rejections of ethnic cleansing plan with threats to withhold of aid: US President Donald Trump told reporters the United States may withhold aid if Egypt and Jordan refuse to take in refugees forced out of Gaza as part of his plan to push out Palestinians from their homeland. With almost all of US humanitarian aid now withheld due to Trump's decision to essentially dissolve USAID and put a 90-day pause to foreign aid, his comments seemingly refer to the roughly USD 1.3 bn a year that the country has received since the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.

Arab nations reject the displacement of Gazans- Abdelatty tells Rubio: Palestinians have the support of Arab states in their rejection of displacement plans, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This came during Abdelatty’s time in Washington which also saw him meet with a handful of American higherups.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Stressing the need for rebuilding Gaza: Abdelatty “emphasized the urgency of initiating early recovery, debris removal, and reconstruction with the presence of Palestinians in Gaza in light of their attachment to their land and their absolute rejection of displacement, with full support from the Arab and Islamic worlds as well as the international community.”

The Foreign Ministry has been pretty outspoken about its rejection of displacement plans, especially with US President Donald Trump recently saying he wants the US to take over Gaza and “own it” and pushing for Egypt and Jordan to take in those currently residing in Gaza.

Other issues of regional interest on the agenda: The two sides also discussed the development in Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, and the Horn of Africa.

Efforts to boost ties: Abdelatty and Rubio touched on efforts to enhance economic, trade, and investment cooperation between the two nations.

And more talks of enhancing ties: Abdelatty and a number US officials — including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and Eric Trager Senior Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the US National Security Council — held discussions centered around strategic ties between the two countries and the situation in Gaza.

Gaza also took center stage during Abdelatty’s meeting with US Senator Chris Van Hollen, during which he reiterated the Arab position regarding the displacement of Palestinians and the need to establish an independent Palestinian state and rebuild Gaza. The meeting also saw the two sides touch on ways to enhance the strategic partnership between Egypt and the US.

ALSO- Exchanging points of view: Abdelatty met with researchers from the American thinktank Hudson Institute yesterday — he expressed Egypt’s stance regarding Gaza, Sudan, and Syria and heard the researchers’ insight on the issues.

AND- Another strongly-worded statement from the Foreign Ministry. The ministry issued a statement reaffirming Egypt’s support for the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination and statehood. It called on the international community to adopt a fair approach that upholds Palestinian rights and ends Israeli aggression in Gaza. Egypt reiterated its commitment to working with global partners toward a just resolution and its stance on the forced displacement of the people of Gaza.

Tags:

DIPLOMACY Egypt-US relations Middle East politics

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Beltone Leasing and Factoring signs EGP 4 bn syndicated leasing term sheet with Al Qalaa Al Hamraa

Beltone Holding subsidiary Beltone Leasing and Factoring has inked a EGP 4 bn syndicated leasing term sheet with Al Qalaa Al Hamraa to fund the construction of Al Ahly Club’s stadium and sports city in Sheikh Zayed, according to a company statement (pdf).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

About the project: The facility — dubbed the “Project of the Century” — is set to be the largest sports and entertainment complex in Egypt, with a 42k-seat stadium, a sports hospital, a sports museum, a university, a specialized sports school, and a hotel.

Want the full story? Check out our coverage of the project when it was first announced last June here.

Remember: Last year Abu Dhabi-based sports management firm and International Holding Company subsidiary Palm Sports was tapped as the operator of the complex.

Beltone Holding’s role doesn't end here: Beltone Investment Banking is acting as the exclusive financial advisor to Al Qalaa Al Hamraa for the project’s development and capital raising.

What they said: “This partnership underscores our commitment to financing transformative projects that drive economic growth and community development. Project of the Century is set to become a landmark in Egypt’s sports infrastructure, redefining the nation’s sports investment landscape. We are proud to support its realization and contribute to a project of this scale and significance,” Deputy Head of NBFIs for Leasing, Factoring, and Consumer Finance at Beltone Leasing and Factoring Amir Ghannam said.

Tags:

Beltone Holding Beltone Leasing and Factoring financial services

Capital markets

Damietta Container and Cargo Handling files for a capital hike ahead of a rumored public offering

EGX-listed Damietta Container and Cargo Handling Company wants to raise its authorized capital to EGP 1.5 bn, up from EGP 400 mn, and increase its issued and paid-up capital to EGP 1.1 bn, up from EGP 200 mn, according to an EGX bulletin. It’s worth noting that while the company has been listed on the exchange since 2022, it hasn’t been actively traded but it has been gearing up to IPO.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The mechanism: The EGP 900 mn capital increase will be distributed across 90 mn new shares with a par value of EGP 10 apiece. The hike will be sourced from the company’s statutory reserves and other reserves as reflected in its financial statement as of 30 June 2023, the bourse said.

This could be part of the government’s planned privatization push for 2025: The government plans to offer 20-25% of the company on the EGX as early as the first quarter of this year, local media reported in December. The unconfirmed report suggested that the IPO would target major industry leaders from the region like the UAE’s AD Ports and DP World through its private placement.

Could Qatar be interested in snapping up a piece of the company? Qatar also has reportedly being eyeing a majority stake in the company, alongside terminal operator Port Said Containers & Cargo Holding Company, for years now.

AND- During his time in Qatar, Industry and Transport Minister Kamel El Wazir held a meeting with the head of industrial at the Qatar Investment Authority Faisal bin Saoud Al Thani, where the two sides touched on the QIA potentially expanding its investments in Egypt, particularly in the industry and transport sectors. El Wazir proposed a number of potential investments in the transport sector — maritime transport, land transport, and ports. A delegation from the authority will visit Egypt “as soon as possible” to look into the proposed projects.

Remember: Damietta Container and Cargo Handling got the green light to temporarily list on the EGX back in 2022. The EGX gave the company a six-month window to meet the requirements to IPO on the exchange and obtain regulatory approvals ahead of its planned IPO, initially scheduled for 2023, but we are yet to see it happen.

Tags:

capital markets IPO watch logistics MENA IPOs state privatization program

A MESSAGE FROM VODAFONE

Vodafone Business Next Summit: Shaping the future of business today

As digital transformation becomes critical for businesses to stay competitive, Vodafone Business is leading the change in Egypt’s technological revolution. Hosting Vodafone Business Next Summit, in its second edition, Vodafone Business further cemented its role as a trailblazer in the region’s tech landscape. Under the theme The Future of Business, this year’s event brought together Egypt’s top CIOs and IT decision-makers to explore the innovations reshaping how we work and live.

The summit offered an immersive journey into the companies of the future, where businesses gained firsthand insights into how integration, innovation, and resilient technology infrastructure are reshaping the future. Whether their goal is to enhance operational efficiency, unlock new possibilities through data, or drive transformation with solutions across connectivity, cloud, AI, IoT, integrated Solutions, digital healthcare and Vodafone Cash, they’ll discover practical strategies to fuel growth.

The summit featured the Vodafone Business Experience Zone, an interactive showcase bringing Vodafone’s innovative solutions to life. Attendees experienced firsthand how these technologies are transforming industries, optimizing operations, and driving growth. The showcase also demonstrated the art of the possible, inspiring businesses to embrace new opportunities with Vodafone Business solutions.

Vodafone Business is a key partner in the digital transformation journey of SMEs, enterprises, and government entities, helping them harness the power of future technologies to drive efficiency and growth. In its annual summit, it brought together industry leaders for three insightful panel discussions including Scaling Digital Transformation: Building a Future-Ready Enterprise and The Power of Integration: Driving Seamless Transformation Across Business Operations — Vodafone Business is fostering collaboration and knowledge-sharing. These panels, along with others like The Journey to Multi-Cloud: Where to Start, and Stay Ahead, offered valuable real-world case studies that contribute to building connected and future-ready businesses.

As technology evolves, Vodafone Business is demonstrating that staying ahead is about more than adopting tools — it's about integrating and leveraging them to shape the future.

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A MESSAGE FROM VODAFONE Vodafone Egypt

Moves

EFG Hermes KSA taps Khalid Al Sweilem as chairman

EFG Hermes KSA taps new chairman: Our friends at EFG Hermes appointed Khalid Al Sweilem (LinkedIn) as chairman of the firm’s Saudi arm as the investment bank continues to push into the Saudi market, according to a statement (pdf). Al Sweilem wears several hats in tandem with his new role, including chairman of asset management firm Ninety One Capital Saudi Arabia and visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Center for Sustainable Development and Global Competitiveness. His career of over 30 years has also seen him serve as the Saudi Central Bank’s head of investment.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What they said: “Dr. AlSweilem’s appointment comes at a critical time for EFG Hermes KSA as we continue to scale our operations and introduce innovative financial solutions tailored to the evolving needs of the Saudi market. His wealth of knowledge and leadership will undoubtedly enhance our ability to deliver world-class financial services across the Kingdom,” EFG Hermes KSA CEO Saud Altassan said.

Tags:

EFG Hermes EFG Holding moves

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

All about Hamas delaying hostage release

Hamas’ decision to delay the release of hostages was the main talking point on the airwaves last night, with the nation’s talking heads weighing in on the issue.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What went down? Hamas announced yesterday that it will delay the release of Israeli hostages who were set to be freed on Saturday, citing Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement, including delays in allowing displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza and blocking humanitarian aid.

Israel calls it a full breach of the agreement: Israel condemned the move, with Defense Minister Israel Katz directing the military to “prepare for all possible scenarios.” Meanwhile, protests erupted in Tel Aviv as families of hostages demanded action. Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi had coverage (watch, runtime: 14:15).

El Hadidi wasn’t surprised by Hamas’ decision, saying that it was expected and driven not only by Israeli violations of the agreement but also by US President Donald Trump’s recent statements regarding the displacement of Gazans.

“As absurd as Trump’s statements may sound, they are also terrifying,” political science professor at Al Quds University Ayman Al Raqab told El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 10:21). He stressed that the upcoming emergency Arab summit in Cairo must send a strong message by activating the Arab Joint Defense Agreement and announcing the formation of an Arab army. “This would show Trump that the Arab world will not be an easy target,” he said.

Amr Adib also weighed in on the issue on El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 12:46).

Tags:

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS Middle East politics

Also on our Radar

Autograph Collection to set up a new hotel in Somabay

HOSPITALITY-

Somabay to bring Marriott’s Autograph Collection Hotels to the Red Sea: Our friends at Somabay have inked an agreement with hospitality giant Marriott International to bring the latter’s Autograph Collection brand to Somabay, according to a statement (pdf). Scheduled to open in 2027, the new beachfront resort marks Marriott’s second project in Somabay, following the opening of Sheraton Somabay in 1999.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

A look inside: Located near the Hurghada International Airport, the resort will offer 194 rooms, cabanas, and suites. Amenities will include several dining venues, meeting rooms, and recreational facilities such as a fitness center and diving center.

ICYMI- The Autograph Collection Hotel is also coming to Mogamma: Cairo House Egypt inked an agreement with Tourism Investment and Marriott International last week to turn the Mogamma building into an Autograph Collection Hotel.

REAL ESTATE-

A EGP 1 bn Egyptian-Saudi real estate investment fund in the works: Local real estate developer Dar Al Maghraby is partnering with an undisclosed Saudi investment fund to set up a real estate investment fund with a minimum capital of EGP 1 bn, the company’s chairman Mohamed Maghraby told Hapi Journal. The company is currently awaiting the green light from Egyptian regulators.

M&A-

EGX-listed Egyptian Modern Education Systems will acquire 90% of Al Arafa for Investment and Consultancies through a share swap, it said in a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. Elite Financial Consulting has been appointed as an independent financial advisor to determine the fair value of both companies and determine the swap ratio.

Tags:

ALSO ON OUR RADAR Arab Contractors Egyptian Modern Education Systems hospitality M&A Watch Marriott real estate somabay

PLANET FINANCE

Trump’s steel, aluminum tariffs plan sees non-US metal stocks fall and US steel stocks rise

Trump’s latest tariffs on steel and aluminum are roiling global metals markets: US President Donald Trump’s Sunday announcement that he would impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fueled a rally in US steel stocks yet spurred their Asian and European counterparts into the red as markets took measure of how the new tariffs will impact inflation, global growth, and trade flow.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Which countries will be most impacted? The tariffs will apply to all steel and aluminum producers without exception — a shift from Trump’s first term, which saw him eventually grant Mexico and Canada exemptions from his 25% tariff on steel and 10% tariff on aluminum. Sunday’s decision will particularly impact key US metal suppliers in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, the EU, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan, with more tariffs expected to follow as trade partners impose retaliatory tariffs.

Metal stocks rally in the US, fall elsewhere: US steel manufacturers saw their shares get a significant bump during Monday trading as much of the rest of the world’s steel manufacturers saw their share prices slip. The US’ largest steelmaker Nucor closed yesterday up 5.6%, while Cleveland-Cliffs saw gains of 18%, and Steel Dynamics (5%), Century Aluminum (10%), and US Steel (5%) all closed in the green yesterday.

Meanwhile, European and Asian steelmakers without operations in the US saw their shares slip up to 2.5% on Monday, with most steel and aluminum producers trending flat or registering losses. The only exceptions to the trend were non-US steelmakers with significant operations in the US, with Australia’s steelmaker BlueScope logging a two-month high as investors bet on hopes that the company’s US operations would benefit from the tariffs.

Expect more steel manufacturers to set up shop in the US: Steel producers are reportedly making plans to bring their supply chains to the US to reduce costs ahead of the tariffs, with the world’s largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal and South Korea’s Hyundai Steel among the companies getting ready to establish plants stateside.

That target doesn’t seem to be China this time: Despite China’s position as the world’s largest steel producer and exporter, the country has largely been shut out of the US market since Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel in 2018 — leaving it with little to lose from this newest round of tariffs. However, Beijing is currently facing 10% US tariffs on Chinese imports, with markets watching closely for signs of escalation or a potential agreement.

The tariffs aren’t necessarily good news for US manufacturers, particularly those in industries reliant on imported steel and aluminum who will now face higher prices for the 25% of the country’s steel imports. “US manufacturers will have to wear higher prices as a result of these 25% tariffs,” Australian and New Zealand Bank’s Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes told Reuters.

Trump’s latest move is rekindling concerns over whether the unfolding trade war will push inflation higher or drag down global growth. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that tariffs constitute a “supply shock” that will hit global economic growth hard. “The impact on inflation is much less clear,” de Guindos said. “If you have a fall in economic activity, then immediately that tempers the evolution of inflationary tensions.”

Analysts are penciling in continued market uncertainty for the foreseeable future as the cumulative effect of Trump’s tariffs gradually becomes clear. “Trade War 2.0 is different in scope and implementation from Trade War 1.0 in 2018 as it involves more countries ... [and] includes all US major trading partners that have significant trade surpluses with the US,” forex and crypto trading firm Oanda’s Kelvin Wong told Reuters. “All in all, [it] may upend global trade flows that in turn dampen global economic growth prospects, which may lead to a stagflation environment” not seen since the global recession of 2009.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning — the Shanghai Composite is down 0.2%, the Hang Seng is up 0.3%, and the Kospi is looking at gains of 0.5%.

EGX30	29,905	-0.4% (YTD: +0.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.22	Sell 50.36
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.24	Sell 50.34
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	12,472	0.0% (YTD: +3.6%)
ADX	9,631	+0.5% (YTD: +2.3%)
DFM	5,261	+0.4% (YTD: +2.0%)
S&P 500	6,066	+0.7% (YTD: +3.1%)
FTSE 100	8,768	+0.8% (YTD: +7.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,358	+0.6% (YTD: +9.4%)
Brent crude	USD 76.09	+1.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.44	+4.1%
Gold	USD 2,934	+1.6%
BTC	USD 97,331	+2.2% (YTD: +4.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.9 bn (5.1% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 0.6% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+3.4%), Edita (+2.6%) and EFG Holding (+2.2%).

In the red: EgyptAlum (-4.9%), Rameda Pharma (-3.1%) and Ibnsina Pharma (-1.7%).

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Going Green

MENA investment in global green climate tech falls, in line with broader trends

MENA investments in global climate tech fell 28% y-o-y to USD 3.6 bn in the 12 months leading up to September 2024, according to PwC Middle East’s 2024 Middle East Climate Tech report. The fall comes in line with a broader 29% drop in global climate tech investment, which has brought investment to levels not seen since before 2020.

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Regional investors remain focused on investments outside of the region: While MENA climate tech investors mobilize significant capital, they funnel only a fraction into regional climate tech ventures, the report notes. In contrast to the USD 3.6 bn poured into global climate tech last year, MENA investors only spent USD 43.6 mn on scaling up MENA-based climate tech projects.

Global interest in MENA climate tech also took a dip, with global investment in the region’s climate tech sector falling 41% y-o-y to USD 114 mn in the 12 months ending in September 2024.

Where are MENA climate investors putting their money? China and North America topped the list of MENA investment destinations, with regional investors funneling USD 2.2 bn into Chinese climate tech and USD 1 bn into US climate tech. MENA investments in Chinese climate tech projects saw strong growth during the period, tripling from the USD 739 mn recorded in the same period in 2023 on the back of continued interest in the region to leverage Chinese technological expertise and scalability, particularly in the EV sector.

The bulk of investment is coming from the GCC: The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar were — unsurprisingly — the biggest investors in climate tech during the 12 months ending in September 2024, primarily through sovereign investment funds, which made up the top three investors by investment value. Abu Dhabi-owned CYVN, Saudi PIF subsidiary Ayar Third Investment Company, and the Qatar Investment Authority snagged these top three spots, accounting for over 89% of investment value during the period.

The UAE was the region’s top climate investor: The UAE increased its global climate investments by 138% y-o-y, securing its spot as the top regional investor in 2024. The increase was driven by two major investments — CYVN Holdings’ promised USD 2.2 bn equity investment in Chinese EV manufacturer Nio and Abu Dhabi’s USD 129 mn stake purchase in nuclear fusion tech company Zap Energy, according to the report.

The EV sector drove investment: Electric mobility sector investments accounted for 84% of MENA investors’ global climate tech investment in the 12 months ending in September 2024 — largely as a result of CYVN’s investment in Nio and Ayar’s USD 750 mn stake increase in American EV manufacturer Lucid Group. The report noted that strategic investments in EV technologies were set to bring “essential intellectual property, technological expertise and high-skilled jobs to the region,” helping regional countries adapt to new economic and environmental realities.

AI-related climate tech was also a key global investment area for MENA investors, with investment in AI climate tech projects more than doubling on a yearly basis to USD 2.4 bn. Nearly 96% of MENA’s funding in global AI-related climate tech was directed toward autonomous vehicles.

Meanwhile, global investment in regional AI-related climate tech saw a massive increase: Global investment in MENA-based, AI-related climate tech increased almost ninefold from USD 5.3 mn in 2023, reaching USD 47.3 mn during the 12-month period.

THE EGYPT ANGLE-

Egyptian climate tech investors’ priorities are largely in line with their GCC counterparts, with significant investments going to the EV market and concrete steps being taken to turn the country into an AI hub.

Gov’t efforts to promote EV investment and localization have been bearing fruit: Throughout 2024, the government made strides toward its goal of increasing the market share of private EVs to 50% by 2040. Among the developments on this front were Ezz Elarab Group’s launch of a new Volvo EV that was announced in December.

More imported models are on their way: Abou Ghaly Motors will bring in the Subaru Solterra at the end of this year, while Alkan Auto is also preparing to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market in 1Q 2025. Meanwhile, National Automotive Company’s (NATCO) plans to launch distribution of Chinese Neta Auto EVs by mid-2025.

Locally-produced EV batteries are also in the offing: Local EV startup Shift EV will soon supply Raya Holding’s automotive unit Raya Auto with locally-produced batteries for Raya’s light EVs, a move that the company said marks “the first regional alliance capable of deep localization of electric mobility technology as Egypt moves towards expanding its industrial base.”

Expanding Egypt’s AI footprint is also on the government’s agenda, with the recently announced National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2.0 aiming to create a dynamic investment environment by offering incentives to attract venture capital, supporting AI startups, and encouraging the growth of AI unicorns, all while developing homegrown tech talent.

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CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

13-17 February (Thursday-Monday): The 10th Annual Conference of the Businesswomen of Egypt 21 Association, the Arab League HQ, Cairo.

17 February: (Monday): Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides will visit Egypt to sign agreements to transport Cypriot gas to Egypt to be liquefied and exported.

17-19 February (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt Energy Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18-19 February (Saturday-Sunday): German-Egyptian Joint Economic Committee meetings, Cairo, Egypt

20 February (Thursday): The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets to decide interest rates

20 February (Thursday): The Egyptian-Swiss Business Circle and Kickstart Innovation are hosting Innovate Together: Business Opportunities Between Egypt and Switzerland

21-23 February ( Friday-Sunday): The First Arab Fraud Combating Summit.

27 February (Thursday): Emergency Arab Summit on the Palestinian issue, Cairo, Egypt.

BP to bring the second well of its Raven natural gas project online, with additional production capacity expected.

Orascom Pyramids Entertainment to bring total investments in the Pyramids Plateau to EGP 1.5 bn.

Subscription period for Your Home in Egypt initiative opens.

MARCH

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer

Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

Alwaad Investment to inaugurate a new cold beverage plant with an annual production capacity of 14.5 mn units.

Al Ahly Sabbour to finalize preparations for its EGX listing, offering 20-25% of its shares, with an advisor to be tapped in early 2025.

March-April 2025: The government plans to start collecting taxes on capital gains from EGX transactions.

APRIL

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit launches 9th edition, Red Sea

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

MAY

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will submit technical and financial bids for Cairo Metro Line 6

JUNE

June 2025: MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

June 2025: Nissan and Honda finalise talks about possible merger to create the world’s third largest automobile company by sales.

June 2025: Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

July 2025: Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

July 2025: Israel to begin increasing gas exports to Egypt from Chevron’s offshore Tamar field

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

August 2025: Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

September 2025: Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

September 2025: Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

25 December 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

December 2025: Taqa Arabia and Voltalia to complete studies for repowering the 545-MW Zafarana wind farm with 1.1 GW of wind and 2.1 GW of solar power

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2025: ADQ to break ground on the development of Ras El Hekma

Early 2025: Al Ismaelia to begin working on two new hotels and hotel apartments in Downtown Cairo.

Early 2025: The Communications Ministry will unveil the second edition of its national AI strategy in early 2025

Early 2025: The Suez Canal Authority to launch an IPO for the Canal Company for Mooring and Lights (CCML) on the EGX.

Early 2025: Orange Egypt to launch 5G services, with EGP 10 bn planned for network upgrades.

Early 2025: BP to begin drilling at the King Mariout Offshore concession.

Early 2025: Jinbei Royal Egypt to begin local assembly of 3k Jinbei vehicles, including the country’s first electric cargo van and microbus

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

1Q 2025: Egypt to sign trade agreements with Bahrain and UAE to slash customs clearance times

1Q 2025: Government to launch EUR 271 mn green industry program to cut emissions

1Q 2025: Egypt-Azerbaijan joint committee to meet to bolster trade and investment ties

1Q 2025: Turkish Automotive Manufacturers Association and Turkish Contractors Association to visit Egypt following an invitation from the Investment Minister

1Q 2025: One of four companies, including Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company, and a Saudi-affiliated firm, to be selected for the USD 450 mn redevelopment of Delta Fertilizers

1Q 2025: GV Auto to begin local production of FAW Group’s cheapest EV model.

1Q 2025: Alkan Auto to launch BAIC subsidiary Arcfox’s EVs to the market.

1Q 2025: Dynamic Distribution to launch a new competitively-priced Fiat model in Egypt.

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta.

1Q 2025: Port Said for Engineering Works to begin construction on a USD 80 mn aluminum foil factory in the SCZone, targeting initial production of 60k tons annually.

1Q 2025: Pearl Polyurethane Systems to start production at its EGP 100 mn polyurethane factory in the Sokhna Industrial Zone.

1Q 2025: Sumitomo Electric to officially open its EUR 22 mn cable factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with production set to begin next month.

1Q 2025: Construction of the USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession to wrap up, followed by a pilot run.

1Q 2025: El Araby Group and Sharp to break ground on a USD 50 mn fridge and freezer manufacturing plant in the Quweisna zone.

1Q 2025: Hangzhou Henneway Travel Goods to begin production at its USD 50 mn factory in the West Qantara Industrial Zone

1Q 2025: BP to drill two USD 160 mn exploratory gas wells in the West Delta

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

2Q 2025: Hassan Allam to build infrastructure for AD Ports' Noatum terminal at Safaga

2Q 2025: EgyptSat Auto to start production at its EV factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

1H 2025: Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) to establishfour logistics zones with EGP 18-20 bn investments

1H 2025: Natco to launch Chinese firm Neta Auto’s EV models.

1H 2025: OCI Global to complete the sale of its entire methanol business to Methanex for USD 2.05 bn.

1H 2025: Egypt and the UAE to begin construction of a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone at Al Hamra Port

1H 2025: HoldiPharma to list 25-30% stakes in Misr Pharma and Chemical Industries Development (CID) on the EGX

1H 2025: Korra Energi to list up to 20% stake on the EGX

1H 2025: Smart Villages Development and Management Company plans to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

1H 2025: Halliburton to bring three gas wells online as part of the Burullus project.

1H 2025: Chevron to begin gas production from the offshore Nargis gas field, initially producing 600 mn cf.

1H 2025: Nile Recycling to launch USD 20 mn PET recycling facility in Ain Sokhna, targeting an annual capacity of 22k tons and reducing carbon emissions by 40k tons

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: AMEA Power to bring 500 MW Amunet wind farm online in Ras Ghareb

4Q 2025: Abou Ghaly Motors to introduce the Subaru Solterra to the market

4Q 2025: Two new projects in food manufacturing and home textiles to begin operations in the Qantara West Industrial Zone

2H 2025: National Printing Company to make its EGX debut after delayed IPO plans

2H 2025: Tabarak Holding to list 30% of its shares on the EGX

2H 2025: Turkish apparel company Denim Rise to open a garment manufacturing facility

2H 2024: Hi-Tech Apparel to break ground on a USD 20 mn sportswear factory in the SCZone

2H 2025: Eni to drill two new wells in the Zohr field with USD 160 mn in investments

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

Mid-2025: SN Automotive to launch three locally assembled models — one electric and two gasoline-powered — in Egypt

Mid-2025: Suez’s USD 1.8 bn coal and diesel production complex, developed by Enppi and Petrojet, to be completed

Mid-2025: Wataneya and Safi to debut on the EGX

End of 2025: The Egypt Digital Industrial Platform will expand to include additional services for manufacturers, including the issuance of licenses, building permits, and industrial records

End of 2025: An unnamed Chinese company and the state-owned Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) to begin production at a USD 360 mn tire factory in the SCZone.

End of 2025: A consortium including Redcon Properties and Al Baraka Bank to launch a local real estate investment fund with over EGP 1 bn in initial investments

Late 2025: Baron Hotels to open a new hotel in Sharm El Sheikh and debut its first international property in Zanzibar with 150 luxury suites

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2025: Nafeza to integrate air cargo into its digital customs platform, further streamlining trade logistics

2025: Africa50 completes 42.9% stake acquisition in Raya Data Centers for USD 15 mn to fund construction of a USD 35 mn Tier III data center.

2025: MM Group for Industry and International Trade is set to launch 16 new Tata vehicle models locally.

2025: China to issue USD 411 bn in special treasury bonds

2025: El Attal Holding to list 30-35% of its shares on the EGX

2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) to launch its EGX debut, offering 5-10% of its shares.**

2025: Basata Holding for Financial Investments to offer 25% stake on the EGX as part of a plan to double its capital to EGP 1.4 bn.**

2025: Hilton Cairo Nile Maadi to open early in the year, alongside debuts of Tapestry Collection and Curio Collection by Hilton.

2025: Palm Hills and Marriott to launch The Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Cairo, featuring 150 branded units across 45 acres

2025: Jaz Hotel Group to set up two new hotels in North Coast, two in Hurghada, and two in Marsa Alam

2025: Sunrise Resorts & Cruises to add 4k hotel rooms to its hotels capacity.

2025: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) to complete studies and kick off production of Egypt’s first sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).

2025: Polaris Parks to begin development of the industrial park in New October City

2025: EgyptAlum to launch a USD 100 mn foil production line with a 50k-ton annual capacity

2025: Honor to begin operations at its proposed smartphone manufacturing facility in Egypt, with an initial investment of USD 10 mn

2025: Indorama and Phosphate Misr to begin implementation of the USD 400-500 mn phosphate fertilizers plant in Ain Sokhna

FY 2025-26: Egypt to issue its first EGP-denominated sovereign sukuk to finance public investments outside the general budget

FY 2025-26: The government to begin introducing cash-based subsidies on a trial basis in select areas of the country

2025-2027: EUR 4 bn in concessional loans to follow as part of a EUR 7.4 bn package

2026

Baron Hotels to launch two hotels in Egypt with 950 rooms, followed by another with 750 rooms.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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