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IMF now sees the economy growing 4.5% this fiscal year

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What We're Tracking Today

El Sisi is in Brussels for first-ever EU-Egypt Summit

Good morning, all. We have another busy issue for you this morning as we dive into the IMF’s latest regional economic outlook, which sees local growth accelerating beyond previous predictions as inflows pick up. We also have the latest on yet another proposed tax facility to boost manufacturing and the government launching a fresh mortgage financing initiative.

We don’t expect the news flow to slow down with the first EU-Egypt summit kicking off in just a few hours.


The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is over. The insights are just getting started.

This year's forum was packed with actionable intelligence on the future of Egyptian business. To make sure you don't miss a thing, we're launching the EnterpriseAM Forum Playback.

Every Thursday, you'll receive a special newsletter breaking down one key session — from the future of work to getting capital markets off life support. We'll also drop a companion podcast in our EnterpriseAM Egypt podcast feed so you can listen on the go.

Want more? We're soft launching our YouTube channel where we've dropped video highlights.


PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 33°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more or less the same in Alexandria, with a high of 32°C and a low of 19°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Progress on the Japanese Industrial Zone? Japan’s Toyota Tsusho could take on the development of the Japanese Industrial Zone under the industrial developer system, which allows private companies to develop land for industrial use and take care of its management, operations, and marketing. This came during a meeting between company representatives and Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) head Walid Gamal El Din during his promotional tour in Tokyo.

REMEMBER- Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly earlier this year invited Japanese companies to establish a dedicated Japanese industrial zone in the SCZone.

ALSO- During Gamal El Din’s time in Tokyo, he met with representatives from Japanese food services provider Zensho Holding, where the two sides discussed launching joint food processing, packaging, and storage projects.


#2- The government is planning to shorten the approval process for tourism projects from two years to one month, aiming to boost investment and streamline administrative procedures, according to an Investment Ministry statement.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Brussels for the first-ever EU-EgyptSummit, according to an Ittihadiya statement. El Sisi will be joined by European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss strengthening political and economic ties under the EU-Egypt Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership and build on Egypt’s role as a key stabilizing force in the region, according to an European Council statement.

El Sisi is also set to hold a series of meetings on the sidelines of the visit, including with King Philippe of Belgium and several senior EU officials and European leaders, according to a separate Ittihadiya statement.

Egyptian and European leaders in the public and private sectors will take part in a day of discussions under the theme Implementing the EU-Egypt Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership: Accelerating Strategic Investment, Industrial Transformation and Innovation. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib will be among those taking to the stage, according to the draft agenda (pdf).

REMEMBER-Last year, the EU pledged a EUR 7.4 bn package of loans, grants, and investments through to 2027 and inked a joint strategic and comprehensive partnership with Egypt. The package included a EUR 1.8 bn investment protection mechanism, EUR 5 bn in concessional loans to provide macro-financial assistance, and EUR 600 mn in grants.


#2- It’s the last day of the Arab-African Investment & International Cooperationsummit. The four-day event, organized by the Arab Women Investors Union in Cairo, focused on sustainable development, international partnerships, and capital pathways for this year’s edition.


#3- Want to pursue a career in sustainability? Then you should attend this year’s Green Talent Forum — a virtual event for fresh talent looking to explore sustainable career paths. The forum will dive into sustainable supply chains, green energy, decarbonization, CSR, climate finance, and sustainable agriculture, with a group of regional and international experts leading the conversation. You can find the link to register for the event on the Localized website — but hurry up, the forum kicks off in just a few hours, at 12:45pm.

DIPLOMACY-

Head of the General Intelligence Service Hassan Rashad met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem yesterday to discuss moving forward with US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, Egyptian-Israeli relations and “strengthening the peace between the two countries,” according to a statement from the Israeli side.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a busy morning in the international business press, while a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire looks further from reach after Russia rejected US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal, and a planned Russia-US summit in Budapest was shelved. (New York Times | Reuters)

The biggest business headlines:

#1- Gold broke its record rally after seeing its steepest drop in years, as investors began to buy the dip in a rare pullback this year against the backdrop of a strengthening USD and easing trade tensions between China and the US. Spot gold fell 6% to USD 4.1k, after the precious metal climbed 28% YTD, with analysts now questioning whether this could mark the end of the metal’s brilliant run and the start of a correction cycle. (Financial Times | Reuters)

#2- OpenAI launched its own competitor to Google’s search engine, Atlas, built around ChatGPT, sending shares of Google’s parent Alphabet down 1.8% yesterday and intensifying competition between the two tech giants. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Guardian)

#3- Netflix’s shares also took a hit, falling more than 5% after missing its third-quarter earnings target due to a hefty tax expense in Brazil. (Reuters | CNBC | FT | Wall Street Journal)

#4- In M&A news, Warner Bros rejected a c. USD 60 bn bid from Paramount Skydance, though it is open to selling its assets, with interested parties including Netflix and Comcast. (WSJ | Reuters | FT)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a deep dive into what’s driving — and also holding back — the recovery of the country’s real estate market.

From October 12–16, Somabay hosted the Somabay World Cup for the first time in Egypt, welcoming 173 participants from 19 countries to its signature Red Sea course. The tournament spotlighted Egypt’s growing presence on the global golf map, set against Somabay’s year-round sunshine, luxury resorts, and world-class sports and leisure scene.

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Economy

IMF upgrades Egypt’s FY 2025-26 growth forecast to 4.5%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees Egypt’s real GDP growing by 4.5% in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, a 0.4 percentage points increase from its latest forecast in July, according to the fund’s latest Regional Economic Outlook (pdf).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The IMF’s upward revision aligns with the Madbouly government forecast of 4.5% growth during the current fiscal year and is more optimistic than the World Bank’s 4.3% forecast and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development’s 4.4% forecast.

Driving the growth: The upgrade was supported by an uptick in remittance inflows from Egyptians abroad and an increase in tourism revenues, both of which are helping improve our current account balance, the IMF said.

Egypt’s external position is projected to strengthen gradually in the medium term as tourism inflows gain more momentum and exports are expected to see a boost as regional trade normalizes, the fund says.

But elevated borrowing costs remain a key vulnerability for Egypt, with the banking system holding large shares of sovereign bonds on its balance sheet, the IMF warns. However, public debt is expected to “stabilize at, or modestly decline from, relatively high levels.” In the new public debt strategy, the Finance Ministry aims to bring public debt down to below 75% of GDP within three years, compared to 85% in the last fiscal year, while cutting debt servicing costs to 7% of GDP and extending debt maturity to five years.

Inflation outlook remains positive: The IMF sees inflation slowing to 11.8% next year, which is a significant decline from the rates observed in the previous years, Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, said in a press briefing. This downward path will be buoyed by the “waning effects of past currency depreciation and energy price hikes,” according to the report. In July, the IMF projected inflation reaching 15.3% on average during FY 2025-26, before cooling down to 10.7% on average in the upcoming fiscal year.

REMEMBER- Annual headline urban inflation fell by 0.3 percentage points in September to end the month at 11.7%. The fall marked the fourth consecutive month of easing price inflation and the lowest annual figure since March 2022.

OTHER KEY TAKEAWAYS-

Discussion between the Madbouly government and the IMF regarding the combined fifthand sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn loan program are expected to conclude in Q4 2025, Azour told Reuters. It is yet to be determined when the anticipated IMF mission will land in Egypt for the reviews.

Recent consultations held between the two sides touched on several areas — including improving the business environment and giving more space to the private sector in the economy to support growth and create jobs, according to Azour.

It is not necessary to extend the current program, Azour said.

The IMF is currently working on two main pillars. The first is accelerating the role of the private sector in the economy and protecting Egypt from any disturbances. The other is protecting the social system by “transforming parts of the public expenditure to be more targeted and provide more support for the most vulnerable categories through targeted policies, and by creating a bigger space of the public expenditure to support the most vulnerable,” Azour added.

"We encourage the authorities to accelerate the implementation of two important milestones — divestment and increasing the level of clarity under some of the state-owned enterprises,” Azour told Reuters.

The Gaza peace agreement will have a positive impact on the Egyptian economy, which has managed to adapt to the shocks.

THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK-

The MENA region’s outlook was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points from July’s forecast to 3.3% in 2025, while the projection for next year’s growth was also revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. The fund now expects the region's GDP to remain broadly steady over the medium term.

“Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa has shown remarkable resilience, despite persistent global uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions. The region has largely avoided direct fallout from higher US tariffs and global trade restrictions. And while recent tensions have raised concern, their impact has been limited and short-lived,” Azour said in a press briefing (pdf).

Tags:

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Energy

Another step toward bringing in Cypriot gas for liquidation, re-export

Gas from Cronos field locked in: Egypt inked three commercial agreements covering the exploitation of the Cronos offshore gas field, paving the way for processing Cypriot gas through existing infrastructure in Egypt, according to a statement. The agreements were inked by the Oil Ministry, Egas, and field partners Eni and TotalEnergies.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Under the agreements, Egypt and the Cronos partners set the commercial and operational terms for transporting, handling, processing, and liquefying the Cypriot gas through Egyptian infrastructure. Both sides also initialed a separate tariff agreement governing the fees for using those facilities.

A confirmed timeline: The partners aim to approve the field’s development and production plan alongside a final investment decision by year-end, with first gas from Cronos targeted for 2027, according to the Cypriot statement.

REMEMBER- Egypt and Cyprus inked an agreement earlier this year that will see Cyprus ship natural gas from Cronos to be liquefied in facilities in Idku and Damietta before being re-exported to foreign markets.

The local market could get a slice: “We will send the natural gas to the Zohr infrastructure … and from there with a pipeline for liquefaction and processing and to the local market in Egypt if the parties decide so,” Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou said earlier this month.

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Tax

Finance Ministry to suspend taxes on machinery and production lines until factories begin operations

FinMin moves to ease tax burdens on new manufacturing projects: The Finance Ministry has approved a decision to suspend tax payments on machinery, equipment, and production lines — whether complete, partial, or disassembled — until installation and inspection are completed, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. The measure, approved by both the tax and customs authorities, is meant to ease cashflow pressures on manufacturers.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Who’s eligible? The Customs Authority had initially proposed limiting the facilitation to companies working on national projects, but the Tax Authority confirmed it will apply to all factories and production units used for industrial production. Beneficiaries will be required to submit a written commitment to pay the suspended tax and any applicable additional tax once due.

What’s next? A ministerial decree is expected to be issued soon to formally activate the new measure, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

REMEMBER- The decision comes as the government steps up support for the industrial sector through a EGP 90 bn program of subsidized loans for industrial, agricultural, and renewable energy players, a percentage of which is earmarked for purchasing machinery and equipment.

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Real estate

Egypt launches fresh mortgage financing initiative

The Housing Ministry has launched a new mortgage financing initiative in partnership with Banque Misr, CIB, QNB Al Ahli, and Arab African International Mortgage Finance, according to a ministry statement. The initiative covers residential, administrative, and commercial units offered by the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What’s new? Unlike previous central bank-backed programs that offered subsidized mortgage financing, this initiative offers flexible terms — repayment periods of up to 20 years and lower down payments. It also covers ready-to-move units not included in past programs, allows easy rescheduling for existing clients, and enables financing for resold units delivered by NUCA.

You heard it here first: EnterpriseAM last week reported that the government is studying a number of proposed low-interest financing initiatives intended for prospective buyers in the real estate market. At the time, we were told that the move would help keep demand healthy — and, importantly, liquidity in play — until the central bank lowers interest rates to 15.00-16.00%, down from the current 21.00% overnight deposit rate.

The initiative targets a broader customer base, including Egyptians abroad, Arab and foreign investors, and buyers of administrative and commercial units, not just homes. Housing Minister Sherif El Sherbiny said the initiative will help speed up the sale process, ensure steady financial inflows to fund new projects, and support financial inclusion. He added that the initiative could attract more local and foreign investment to the sector.

The impact: The real estate sector needs liquidity to meet delivery deadlines. Launching new financing programs could help ease cash flow pressure and support developers, a government source previously told EnterpriseAM.

IN OTHER REAL ESTATE NEWS-

Saudi Samla & Alam Al Roum for Urban Development signed an agreement with Palm Hills Developments to develop a 97-feddan mixed-use project in East Cairo, the subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Dallah Albaraka Holding said in a statement (pdf). The development will mainly feature residential units with a commercial component to meet rising demand for quality housing in East Cairo.

The project is expected to generate around EGP 30 bn in total sales, a source familiar with the matter told EnterpriseAM. The agreement will see Palm Hills receive 70% of the revenues, while Dallah Albaraka will receive the remaining 30%, the source added.

6

Moves

Concrete Fashion Group taps Sameh Hedayah to head UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman operations

Concrete Fashion Group for Commercial and Industrial Investments appointed Sameh Hedayah (LinkedIn) as director of its subsidiaries in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, replacing Mohamed Khalifa, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Hedayah has been with the company since 2014, most recently as the company’s head of retail.

Hedayah’s appointment comes hot on the heels of Concrete for Ready-Made Garments naming Matteo Zappala as its new CEO, replacing Khalifa, who stepped down on 30 September.

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Also on our Radar

Ownership shakeup at Coca-Cola Beverages Africa

M&A WATCH-

Coca-Cola Beverages Africa sees ownership shakeup: Coca-Cola HBC AG (CCHBC) — the parent company of Coca-Cola HBC Egypt — is acquiring a 75% stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) in a transaction that values the company at USD 3.4 bn, according to a statement.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The sellers: The Coca-Cola Company is selling a 41.52% stake — leaving it with 25% of the company — and Gutsche Family Investments is selling its entire 33.48% stake. Coca-Cola and the buyer agreed to a separate option agreement for CCHBC to acquire Coca-Cola’s remaining 25% within six years.

THE EGYPT ANGLE- CCHBC fully acquired the Coca-Cola Bottling Company of Egypt in 2022 in a USD 304 mn transaction. CCHBC is doubling down on the African market with its acquisition of a controlling stake in CCBA.

The bigger picture: “The transaction creates the second-largest bottling partner for the caffeinated soft drink by volume and marks another step in which the US firm is moving away from the business of bottling,” Bloomberg writes.

BANKING-

The central bank instructed banks to verify full payment of deposited capital for company incorporation or capital increases before issuing any deposit certificates, according to a circular (pdf) sent to banks yesterday. Banks are now barred from releasing funds deposited for company formation until the company is officially registered and its articles of association are approved.

What this means: Banks now have to ensure that the deposited amounts match the capital officially declared in a company’s documents before issuing certificates. The decision aims to prevent potential manipulation or the creation of shell companies based on unverified certificates while providing banks with stronger legal protection by standardizing the issuance process. This also reduces the risk of violating know your customer rules or facilitating the creation of companies for illegal purposes, such as money laundering or tax evasion.

However, the decision could slightly slow down new company registration processes, particularly in cases requiring a detailed review of capital documents or amendments. On the other hand, it enhances transparency and financial discipline in company formation and boosts local and foreign investor confidence in Egypt’s banking system, as it ensures that declared capital is genuinely deposited and operational. This boosts the credibility of newly registered firms.

MANUFACTURING-

The Egyptian Anode Blocks Company’s Ain Sokhna plant kicked off trial operations following the completion of the first phase of rehabilitation, according to a Public Enterprises Ministry statement. The first phase restored 125k tons of annual capacity, with output expected to double upon completing phase two in 1Q 2026. The move is part of a wider government initiative to revive and restructure idle factories.

MARKETING-

Al Ahly signed a EGP 2 bn, three-season sponsorship agreement with Qatar Airways, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed sources. Al Ahly is prioritizing partnerships with foreign and Gulf companies to secure more hard currency. This comes as the club aims to strengthen its financial position and ability to pay out salaries in foreign currencies while reviewing existing sponsorships set to expire in 2025, according to one of the sources.

EXPANSION-

MCS sets foot in the UAE: Egypt-based IT solutions and cybersecurity company Mideast Communication Systems (MCS) has kicked off UAE operations with the launch of MCS Atlas, according to a statement. The move comes as part of the company’s regional expansion across the Gulf, Levant, and Eastern regions.

Alaa Bawab (LinkedIn) will serve as CEO and Managing Partner of the UAE office. He brings to the table over 25 years of experience, most recently as Lenovo’s general manager for infrastructure solutions in the Middle East and Africa.

STARTUP WATCH-

Money Fellows eyes regional expansion: Local fintech startup Money Fellows plans to enter the Moroccan market in 1Q 2026 under a partnership with Attijariwafa Bank and one of Morocco’s sovereign wealth funds, founder and CEO Ahmed Wadi told Al Borsa. The partnership will see the formation of a new Moroccan arm, in which Money Fellows aims to secure a majority stake, Wadi added. The move comes as part of Money Fellows’ plans to expand into four GCC and African markets by 2030.

Also in the cards: The startup plans to launch a new funding round for raising USD 60–80 mn during 2H 2026 to support its expansion strategy, Wadi said.

DEBT WATCH-

Real estate development company Inertia Egypt secured a EGP 5.2 bn shariah-compliant credit facility from a syndicate of state-owned banks, according to a statement (pdf). The six-year mudaraba financing package will help fund part of Inertia’s North Coast residential project Jefaira.

Who did what? Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, the National Bank of Egypt, Housing and Development Bank, and the Suez Canal Bank all acted as lead arrangers on the agreement. Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, and the National Bank of Egypt also acted as marketers, while Banque Misr served as the facility agent, security agent, and account bank. Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy provided counsel, Engineering Consultants Group acted as an independent engineering consultant, and Baker Tilly served as a financial advisor.

EARNINGS WATCH-

Eastern Company saw its net income increase 5.8% y-o-y to EGP 9.7 bn in FY 2024-2025, according to its latest financial statement (pdf). Net revenues rose 82.8% y-o-y to EGP 37.4 bn during the year, supported by a 27.3% increase in local cigarette sales and a 17.4% rise in exports, according to a separate report (pdf) from the board.

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PLANET FINANCE

The EM equity + currency boom is here to stay

Emerging market equities have had a really good 2025 so far — and they’re on track to keep outperforming well into next year, Goldman Sachs said in a recent note. The MSCI EM index has closed each month this year in the green, and is up c.32% YTD. The index rose 7% in September as the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 2025, “contributing to a ‘risk-on’ sentiment as investors sought out assets with higher potential returns relative to safer fixed-income investments.”

This performance is expected to be sustained over the next 12 months, with Goldman Sachs upgrading its forecast from the index to 1,480 from 1,373 as of 9 October, “implying 8% price returns from current levels” in USD terms.” The outlook comes as Goldman Sachs expects strong company earnings from emerging markets, which are seen rising 9% this year and 14% in 2026.

The bull run comes after a “very long winter” — “the EM trade has not been a good one” since 2009, ABS Global Investments founding partner and portfolio manager Guilherme Ribeiro do Valle tells CIO. Indeed, the EM MSCI index underperformed the MSCI World index by more than 200 percentage points from 2010-2024, Deutsche Bank’s Oliver Harvey wrote for the Financial Times. Developed markets such as the US, Europe, and Japan, saw a concentration of liquidity during that time on the back of quantitative easing policies, while emerging markets simply were not able to do the same. However, emerging markets have broadly recovered post-covid, with rapid interest rate cuts also supporting structural changes that are now in these markets’ favor.

Even as they outperform, EM equities still boast very attractive valuations. As of last month, EMs “remain deeply undervalued: at 14x forward price-to-earnings, they are 30% cheaper than [developed markets] and a striking 42% cheaper than the US. Add in the low price-to-book ratios and higher dividend yields versus the US, and the case for EMs becomes more compelling,” Eastspring Investments said in a recent report. Goldman Sachs sees particular upside in Chinese and Korean equities, while potential reforms that would ease limits on foreign ownerships of listed companies in Saudi Arabia “could unlock passive inflows up to USD 10 bn” to equities in the Kingdom.

The key drivers of the rally: A weaker USD, and investors trying to diversify away from the US, for the most part. “The USD plays a crucial role in emerging market trade as the main invoicing currency for imports, and financial systems, with a large share of debt still denominated in it,” Harvey said. The weakening of the USD has therefore helped developing economies improve their current account balance and reduce their external liabilities, Harvey notes, and can “boost flows into EM stocks as investors look for higher returns outside the US,” Goldman Sachs says.

It’s not just equities — EM currencies are also having their time in the sun: EM currencies are also on a tear, outperforming developed market currencies in September, Goldman Sachs notes. The investment bank sees that performance continuing in the months to come, supported by a strong carry trade, the movement in the USD, and the EM equity boom.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are treading water in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei leading losses as analyst sentiment remains mixed on the country’s new cabinet — led by its first-ever woman prime minister — and export data came in lower than expected. The Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite are also in the red, while the Kospi is trading up so far.

Wall Street, meanwhile, looks likely to open flat later today. Futures for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are marginally in the red, while Nasdaq futures are trading marginally in the green.

EGX30

37,698

-0.7% (YTD: +26.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.49

Sell 47.63

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.50

Sell 47.60

Interest rates (CBE)

21.00% deposit

22.00% lending

Tadawul

11,546

-0.9% (YTD: -4.1%)

ADX

10,121

+0.2% (YTD: +7.5%)

DFM

5,976

+0.4% (YTD: +15.8%)

S&P 500

6,735

0.0% (YTD: +14.5%)

FTSE 100

9,427

+0.3% (YTD: +15.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,687

+0.1% (YTD: +16.2%)

Brent crude

USD 61.60

+0.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.52

+1.3%

Gold

USD 4,083

-0.6%

BTC

USD 109,279

-1.1% (YTD: +16.6%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

949.38

+0.3% (YTD: +22.1%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

152.05

+0.2% (YTD: +8.7%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.87

-2.0%(YTD: +3.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.9 bn (29.3% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 26.8% YTD.

In the green: Sidpec (+1.4%), Qalaa Holdings (+1.4%), and Credit Agricole (+1.3%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-1.6%), Mopco (-1.6%), and Arabian Cement (-1.5%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Eastern Company’s board proposed distributing a dividend payout of EGP 2.85 per share on its FY 2024-2025 earnings, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). The plan is pending shareholders’ approval at an upcoming general assembly meeting on 13 November.

#2- Sidpec’ extraordinary general assembly approved increasing the company’s issued and paid-in capital to EGP 2.3 bn, up from EGP 1.8 bn, by issuing 226.8 mn bonus shares at a nominal value of EGP 2.0 each, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The increase will be financed from the company’s FY 2024 earnings.

9

HARDHAT

Egypt’s real estate market sees structural recovery driven by real demand and new financing trends, Savills says

The Egyptian real estate market is going through a broad structural shift, with a positive outlook across major asset classes, according to real estate advisory firm Savills in its latest Cairo Property Market 2025 report (pdf). The report highlights changing demand patterns, new financing tools, and evolving consumer behavior that are reshaping the market. Signs of steady recovery are emerging amid continued macroeconomic stability, Savills Egypt head Catesby Langer-Paget said during a press conference attended by EnterpriseAM. Savills noted strong investor and developer interest across all asset classes, as the market stabilizes, driven by solid demographic trends and the return of end users as key buyers.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The commercial segment remains one of the market’s main growth drivers, with more than 1.1 mn sqm of new supply expected over the next few years, strategic consultancy head Rania Nazmi said. Retail sales in Egypt are expected to grow from USD 149.7 bn in 2025 to USD 201.4 bn by 2030, according to Oxford Economics. The expansion, coupled with the entry of new local and global brands, is intensifying competition and strengthening tenants’ negotiating power, Nazmi added.

The market is showing early signs of recovery, helped by new mid-market and GCC retail brands entering Egypt, particularly in F&B. Economic pressures have also helped local brands, many of which started online, expand into physical retail, operations head Sherine Badreldine said.

With supply on the rise, effective property management has become a critical success factor, Badreldine said. Tenants are becoming more selective, often negotiating rent-free periods or landlord contributions to fit-out costs. Downtown Cairo is also regaining its commercial appeal thanks to adaptive reuse projects and government-led renovation efforts, the report said.

The residential market remains a key pillar, with sale prices stable in USD despite EGP depreciation. Developers are working to maintain buyer confidence through modest reductions, longer payment plans, and a focus on finished, ready-to-deliver units.

Affordability is the main challenge. The average monthly installment for an apartment priced at EGP 6 mn — the entry point in new urban communities — is around EGP 42k, affordable to only 5-10% of Egyptian households, the report noted.

The market is gradually moving toward new financing mechanisms such as REITs, which are expected to be formally regulated soon, to widen investor access. Fractional ownership models — which allow buyers to purchase shares rather than full units — are also gaining traction, particularly for serviced apartments. Foreign demand is on the rise, supported by property ownership reforms and Egypt’s growing appeal as a secondary home destination, Nazmi said.

Branded residences are emerging as one of the fastest-growing subsegments in the market, with Cairo’s supply expected to rise sevenfold by 2031 — from three operational projects in 2025 to around 22 by the end of the forecast period, Savills said.

The expansion is being fueled by the sector’s early-stage potential, strong investor appetite, and new partnerships with luxury hospitality and global design brands, such as Elie Saab, Nazmi said. The trend reflects a shift toward luxury, fully serviced living that blends lifestyle and investment. Still, the segment faces challenges, including blurred definitions — with some developers conflating serviced apartments with branded residences — and a limited track record, Nazmi added.

HOSPITALITY SECTOR DOUBLES CAPACITY AS OCCUPANCY REBOUNDS-

The hospitality sector continues to grow, supported by state plans to double national hotel capacity to 470k keys by 2028, up from 220k currently. Occupancy rates reached 75% in early 2025, signaling renewed investor and traveler confidence in Egypt as a leading tourism destination.

New supply is increasingly catering to a broader traveler base, with growing focus on upper- and midscale brands such as Moxy and Hilton Garden Inn. In Downtown Cairo, historic properties are being converted into lifestyle hotels, including the Shepherd Hotel’s transformation into a Mandarin Oriental and the Tahrir complex into an Autograph Collection property. Still, only around 25% of hotels initially slated to open this year have been delivered due to rising construction costs, Langer-Paget said.

ADMINISTRATIVE MARKET SUFFERS FROM SUPPLY AND DEMAND MISMATCH-

The office market continues to face a structural imbalance as developers focus on selling small units to individual investors for faster cashflow, leaving limited options for corporates — particularly multinationals — seeking large grade A office spaces, Nazmi said.

This gap is opening opportunities for co-working and serviced office operators catering to SMEs and freelancers, Langer-Paget said. There are currently 44 co-working locations across Greater Cairo. REITs could also help plug the gap for large office assets thanks to their ability to acquire income-generating properties.

Cairo remains highly competitive on pricing, with prime office rents averaging USD 723 per sqm per year — as opposed to around USD 1.6k in Dubai or Riyadh, according to Savills.

EDUCATION, HEALTHCARE FACE STRONG DEMAND BUT LIMITED ACCESS TO FINANCE-

Egypt’s education sector is undergoing structural change fueled by rapid population growth, with students making up more than a third of the population. Despite strong demand and interest from operators to expand, projects remain capital-intensive and face high land and construction costs, as well as long payback periods, Nazmi told EnterpriseAM. A total of 182 new private schools opened during the 2024-25 academic year, mostly in the high-fee bracket, she added.

The healthcare market is also expanding, supported by population growth and reforms such as the Universal Healthcare Law. Still, hospital construction remains one of the most expensive real estate investments due to complex technical requirements and land costs. The sector faces shortages of specialized operators and medical professionals, with only 0.7 doctors per 1k people — among the lowest ratios in the region, Nazmi said. Private healthcare spending is expected to grow at a 10.4% CAGR through 2030.

The most efficient model is for developers to build and equip facilities, then sell them to specialized investors, who in turn contract qualified operators — reducing developers’ exposure to long-term returns, Nazmi told EnterpriseAM.

The real estate market continues to show resilience and evolving fundamentals, Savills executives said. The market is shifting back toward end users and long-term investors after speculative demand cooled during the peak of the EGP’s depreciation. Professional consultancy and asset management are increasingly critical to guiding developers and investors and mitigating risk, Badreldine said. Projects that integrate strong advisory and management practices early on achieve higher occupancy and more consistent performance, reflecting a broader market shift toward long-term value and operational quality.


Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • State-owned oil and gas contractor Petrojet was awardeda USD 1.1 bn contract to develop the second phase of the Hassi Bir Rkaiz field project in Algeria, after competing against major international firms for the project.
  • The Madbouly government is currently working to overhaul the export framework in a bid to develop an integrated export system in line with international best practices. The move aims to streamline export procedures and increase the competitiveness of Egyptian products globally.

OCTOBER

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

22 October (Wednesday): Egypt-EU Summit, Brussels, Belgium.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Stone Africa Expo, Cairo International Conference Center.

28 October (Tuesday): BEBA’s working dinner with Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

October: The tenth session of the Egyptian-Lebanese Joint Higher Committee.

Mid-October: Capmas to publish the findings of its 2023-2024 income and expenditure survey.

NOVEMBER

1 November (Saturday): The official opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

3 November (Monday): S&P Global to release PMI data for September.

9-11 November (Sunday-Tuesday): The sixth edition of the TransMEA 2025 forum and exhibition, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

10 November (Monday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for October.

16-19 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23-25 November (Sunday-Tuesday): NEBU Expo 2025 gold and jewelry exhibition, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, New Cairo.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

November: The Conference on Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development in Gaza.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (Monday-Thursday), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

4-7 December (Thursday-Sunday): Egy Stitch & Tex Expo 2025, Cairo International Conference Center.

15 December (Monday): Neo Gen PropTech and Sustainable Smart Cities Conference, The St. Regis Hotel New Capital

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

December: Germany’s North Rhine-Westphala business delegation to land in Egypt.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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