IMF managing director is in Cairo for meetings with key stakeholders

1

What We're Tracking Today

IMF boss is in town for talks with El Sisi, Madbouly, Abdalla

Good morning, friends. We are kicking off the week with an issue packed with good news: our budget deficit has narrowed, the net foreign asset surplus is rising again, Fitch Ratings upgrades our credit rating, and the IMF is optimistic about our medium-term growth.

More good news coming our way? We could be in line for more good news this week with the IMF boss in town for meetings with key stakeholders.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- IMF managing director is in Cairo: The IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva kicked off talks with Egyptian officials, including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and CBE governor Hassan Abdalla yesterday after landing in Egypt. Georgieva’s visit comes as the state seeks to renegotiate the terms of our USD 8 bn loan agreement and precedes a visit from a delegation from the Fund in preparation for the program’s fourth review.

Watch out for: Georgieva will join Madbouly and Abdalla for a presser at the new capital later today.

On the agenda: Georgieva will be meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and key stakeholders “about maintaining Egypt's economic stability and fostering inclusive growth that will create opportunities for all Egyptians.”

Remember: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi last month stated that the country might need to revisit the IMF agreement in light of the economic pressures the country is facing as it undergoes agreed-upon reforms. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly last week noted that the state is focused on extending the timeline for implementing measures, in light of local and regional developments since the agreement’s drafting. The IMF has expressed willingness to revisit the terms of the agreement, with Georgieva saying that the Fund has “been very open to adjust the Egyptian program or any other program to what is best to serve people.”

#2- The EGP dips against the greenback: The USD rose more than 0.4% against the EGP on Thursday to reach EGP 48.94 to the greenback, marking its highest level since August’s global market meltdown, Asharq Business reports.

Questions are being asked about the EGP’s recent stability: The news coincides with investors reportedly pressing the IMF for an explanation regarding the EGP’s stability amid regional shocks and in light of Egypt’s pledges to maintain a flexible exchange rate, Bloomberg writes citing sources familiar with the matter. Maintaining exchange rate flexibility has been a key focus area of our IMF agreement.

Expect the topic to be brought up during upcoming meetings: Fund officials will discuss the flexibility of the EGP with authorities, Bloomberg writes without providing further details.

SIGN OF THE TIMES-

Coca-Cola continued to feel the heat of local boycotts in 3Q 2024, as Egyptian consumers continued to reject the soda giant amid key US ally Israel’s continuing war on Gaza, Reuters reports. “Like many other international brands, we have seen an impact from the boycott in Q3 in Egypt. Volumes of Coca-Cola are most affected, however, many of our other brands are less affected or not at all,” the company told the newswire.

Remember: Volumes of Coke sold in Egypt reportedly declined by double-digit percentage points in the first six months of 2024.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The House is back in session: MPs will reconvene today through Tuesday to discuss and vote on three draft bills regulating criminal procedures, the Police Authority’s performance, and extending tax dispute settlements.

Taxpayers could have a looser deadline: The House will discuss and vote on amendments to the law regulating the tax dispute settlement on Tuesday, which will see the deadline for settlements pushed to 30 June 2025. The House's Budget Committee and the Senate approved the amendment last week.

Remember: The cabinet last week approved a draft law to settle the status of taxpayers and end existing tax disputes — part of its wider drive to ease the burden on taxpayers and unify and improve tax services. Cabinet spokesperson Mohamed El Homsani previously said that all tax disputes predating the announcement will be settled as part of wider efforts to build trust with taxpayers.

#2- The Iraq Investment Forum 2024 wraps up: A delegation from the Contractors Union is in Baghdad today for the second and final day of the Iraq Investment Forum, where the Iraqi government is showcasing available project offerings across various sectors, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and water waste. The union is expected to land agreements between local contracting companies and Iraqi entities to carry out construction projects there in the upcoming period.

Local construction firms have been loving the Iraqi market, which has become one of a number of key markets local firms have been expanding to as domestic opportunities shrink. The Iraqi construction market is expected to grow significantly over the coming ten years, our sources said, adding that they expect demand to exceed the USD 500 bn market over the next decade. We dove into the full story in a HardHat published last in September.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- The World Urban Forum to kick off Monday: The UN’s World Urban Forum will run from Monday to Friday in Cairo, and will bring together a global array of policymakers, urban planners, academics, business leaders, and community representatives to address today’s critical urban challenges. Co-organized by the Egyptian government, the forum will feature discussions and workshops aimed at reshaping urban policies and fostering sustainable, inclusive cities for the future. Check out the agenda or register to attend via the links available on the event’s official website.

#2- The three-day FinExpo Conference and Exhibition will begin on Thursday, 7 November at the Cairo International Convention Centre. The conference will bring together top banks, tech firms, and financial service providers for in-depth discussions on economic forecasts, stock market trends, and digital trading platforms. The event will feature over 50 speakers, and 25 talks and panel discussions. Register to attend on the event’s website.

#3- The annual Carerha Summit is set to begin on Friday: Female-focused edtech platform Carerha will kick off its annual two-day summit on 8 November in Sheikh Zayed’s Capital Business Park. The USAID- and DAI-backed event is expected to host 5k attendees and feature “engaging panels, talks, and fireside chats on topics such as empowering women in fintech, success stories of Egyptian brands, leveraging various platforms for business growth, and building businesses at a young age.” Find the link to register on the platform’s Facebook page.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

It’s the first week of November — here are the key news triggers to keep your eyes on this month:

Non-oil private sector activity to fall again? S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for October on Tuesday, 5 November, measuring the country’s non-oil private sector activity. Last month’s reading saw non-oil private sector activity contract just one month after expanding for the first time in three years amid heightened cost inflation.
Fresh inflation figures: Capmas and the CBE are expected to publish October’s inflation data on Sunday, 10 November. Data for September saw annual headline urban inflation rise for the second month in a row on the back of rising energy costs.
Interest rates: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on 21 November to review interest rates. The CBE left rates unchanged when it last met in October.

DATA POINT-

#1- Egypt’s population reached 107 mn yesterday, marking an increase of 1 mn in 268 days, according to CAPMAS data. The fertility rate has declined from 3.5 children per woman in 2014 to 2.54 in 2023. Director of the Planning Ministry’s demographic center Amira Tawadros told EnterpriseAM that the drop reflects the government’s successful family planning efforts through the National Family Development Program, which works across all state entities and utilizes digital tools to lower birth rates.

We’re slowing down: The population reached the 106 mn milestone in February 2024, increasing by 1 mn in 250 days.

#2- Egypt is aiming for 120 GW of total electrical capacity by 2040, with 60% set to come from renewable sources, according to an Electricity Ministry statement. Key targets for 2040 include 65 GW of our capacity coming from wind and solar power, 2.4 GW from pumped storage, and reducing fossil fuel reliance to 49 GW.

PSA-

WEATHER- The weather in Cairo continues to cool today, with the capital in for a high of 26°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s almost the same in Alexandria, with a high of 25°C and a low of 19°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There are two stories vying for your attention this morning in the international press, including the latest from the US presidential elections as early voting gets underway and Berkshire Hathaway’s latest earnings.

#1- Kamala Harris is three percentage points ahead of Donald Trump among likely US voters in Iowa, a traditionally Republican-leaning state where Trump secured an eight-point victory over incumbent Joe Biden in 2020. Trump had also secured Iowa’s vote in the 2016 elections. The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released overnight indicates that women voters are driving the unexpected outcome, with 57% independent women voters likely to vote for Harris — compared to 29% in favor of Trump. Among all independent voters, Harris maintained a 13-point lead over Trump. (Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | Reuters)

#2- Berkshire Hathaway’s cashpile has grown to USD 325.5 bn, after the conglomerate moved to sell off its holdings in Apple down to USD 69.95 bn in 3Q 2024 — equivalent to around one-quarter of its shares in the company, according to Berkshire’s 3Q 2024 earnings report (pdf). The selldown of its Apple position — part of a USD 34.6 bn sale of shareholdings in the three months ending in September — also saw Warren Buffet’s firm selling some USD 36.1 bn of its position in Bank of America during the quarter. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | CNBC)

Egypt’s budget deficit narrows to 2.2% during 1Q of FY 2024-25

The FinMin gives us a rundown of key economic indicators for 1Q 2024-25: Egypt has seen its budget deficit narrow, its primary surplus expand, and its revenues up during the first three months of FY 2024-25, despite the ongoing regional war, according to the Finance Ministry’s latest monthly financial report (pdf).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

#1- Budget deficit narrowed to 2.12% of the country’s GDP in 1Q 2024-2025, recording EGP 361.8 bn, up from a EGP 455.8 bn deficit during the same period last year, driven by an increase in revenues, mainly from the taxpayers, and a decline in the debt service bill.

#2- Revenues were up 40.3% y-o-y during the three-month period to stand at EGP 470.1 bn, with the lion’s share collected from taxpayers, which made up 87.9% of total revenues.

Tax revenues saw a big leap in 1Q 2024-25, reaching EGP 413.3 bn, up 45% y-o-y — their biggest jump in 20 years. The jump was attributed to growth across all tax types, driven by better economic performance and the unwinding of the FX crisis. Additionally, tax systems digitization played a key role in improving tax administration and expanding the tax base, ultimately boosting revenues, according to the report.

#3- Government spending increased by 4.7% y-o-y, standing at EGP 827.7 bn in 1Q 2024-2025. This was driven by a 5.4% y-o-y dip in debt service bill, which sat at around EGP 452 bn thanks to “efforts to control public spending by improving debt management through distributing payments over the length of the fiscal year and diversifying financing sources.”

#4- Spending on support and subsidies also increased during the quarter, rising by 39.8% y-o-y to EGP 133 bn in 1Q 2024-2025. This included increased spending on food subsidies (EGP 26.1 bn) and social support programs.

The bigger picture: The government has penciled in growth of 4.0% for the fiscal year. Headline inflation is expected to drop to an average of 17.9% over the current FY. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is expected to increase to 7.3% of the country’s GDP.

Fitch upgrades our credit rating to ‘B’ citing greater confidence in structural reforms

Fitch Ratings upgraded our credit rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ with a stable outlook for the first time since 2019, citing FX inflows from the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement, our expanded USD 8 bn IMF program, and the EU’s EUR 7.4 bn aid package, alongside greater confidence in the durability of our structural reforms, the credit ratings agency said in a statement.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Our commitment to a flexible exchange rate played a key role: Fitch’s report noted that limited intervention in FX markets since the EGP’s float in March has given the ratings agency “somewhat greater confidence that the more flexible exchange rate policy will prove more durable than in the past.” It also noted the country’s replenished international reserves and a more positive debt outlook as among its reasons for the rating hike.

Government efforts have helped: Fitch notes that government efforts including expanding the tax base, cutting subsidies, and limiting off-budget public investment have all moderately reduced risk to public finances. The report also noted a resilient banking sector as a key source of financing flexibility for the state.

Still, the economy faces key challenges: The ratings agency was less sanguine about the potential impact of further regional conflict, which has already affected revenues through falling Suez Canal receipts. Fitch noted that revenues from the Suez Canal are only expected to recover to around half of the FY 2022-23 level in FY 2025-26. “Social instability” was also noted as a risk factor, with the ratings agency pointing to continued high inflation and structural challenges like youth unemployment as potentially limiting reform.

Fitch still has concerns about our debt burden: Interest costs to general government revenue are projected to remain well above the 13.9% median for ‘B’-rated countries, with Fitch penciling in the country’s interest to revenue cost for FY 2028-29 at around 37%, down from an expected high of 61% in FY 2024-25. The ratings agency expects a similar trend to hold for our debt-to-GDP ratio, anticipating it to fall to 78.9% by FY 2025-26 from 89.1% in FY 2023-24, but remain above the median ‘B’ rating of 56.4%.

The ratings agency also weighed in on the potential renegotiation of our IMF agreement, writing that despite the government’s “newly-stated intent to renegotiate some targets,” it believes that the state “remains broadly committed” to the structural reforms agreed to as part of the agreement.

What’s going to get us our next rating upgrade? Fitch pointed to a narrowing current account deficit, higher FX reserves, continued exchange rate flexibility, and fiscal consolidation as key improvements that might lead to a ratings increase.

The international press also had the story: Reuters | Bloomberg.

The IMF sees Egypt’s medium-term growth rising above 5% as regional conflicts subside, structural reforms are implemented

IMF strikes upbeat tone on Egypt’s medium-term growth: The IMF expects constraints on Egypt’s growth to ease as regional tensions subside and structural reforms are implemented, it said in its most recent Regional Economic Outlook (pdf). The Fund noted that “an assumed easing of the conflict in Gaza and Israel next year and steady implementation of reforms are projected to help lift growth in Egypt to 4.1% in 2025 and above 5% over the medium term.”

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Remember: The IMF has kept our growth forecast for the current fiscal year unchanged at 4.1%, after slashing it 0.3 percentage points in July. This is higher than both the Madbouly government’s and the World Bank’s growth forecasts for the current fiscal year, which come in at 4.0% and 3.5%, respectively.

Our efforts toward fiscal consolidation are winning us accolades: The Fund noted our significant steps toward reducing our primary deficit through subsidy reforms and improved revenue collection, including tax base expansion. This, coupled with the planned use of some of our Ras El Hekma funds to pay down our debts, has the Fund penciling in a six percentage point decrease in our public debt by the end of FY 2024-25.

There’s still room for improvement, though: The fund noted that Egypt is among the countries that would be well-served by liberalizing interest rates, increasing private ownership in the banking system, and developing capital markets, saying that “financial sector policies that foster competition, reduce the dominance of state-owned banks, and encourage the broadening of the investor base can advance financial development and facilitate higher growth and inclusion.”

On a regional basis: The IMF now sees the MENA region and Pakistan growing 2.1% this year, down 0.6 percentage points from its earlier estimate of 2.7%. Regional growth is expected to rebound in 2025 to 4%.

** We dove into the Fund’s forecast for the MENA region in this morning’s Planet Finance.

The story was also picked up by international press: Reuters | Bloomberg.

Egypt’s net foreign asset surplus rises to USD 10.3 bn in September

Net foreign asset surplus in the Egyptian banking system rose 6% to record USD 10.31 bn in September, up from USD 9.7 bn in August, according to EnterpriseAM calculations based on Central Bank of Egypt figures. The figures represent Egypt’s fifth consecutive month in the green and a turn-around from August, which saw net foreign asset surplus fall 27%. The country’s banking system has maintained a surplus since May, when net foreign assets shifted from deficit to surplus for the first time since February 2022.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Commercial banks saw improvement, but remained in the negative: Net foreign assets in commercial banks remained in the red, coming in at a deficit of around USD 132 mn, up from a deficit of USD 536 mn in August. Assets rose 3.3% to USD 28.5 bn, offsetting a 1.8% rise in liabilities — which rose to around USD 28.6 bn.

The central bank was in the green despite shrinking assets: The CBE saw a 1.7% increase in net foreign asset surplus in September, which rose to USD 10.4 bn, up from USD 10.3 bn in August. Assets fell by USD 109 mn to USD 45.2 bn, while liabilities fell by around USD 64 mn to USD 34.7 bn.

Remember: Net foreign asset deficit in the Egyptian banking system reached its all-time high back in January, recording USD 29.0 bn, before gradually dropping in the months that followed following the Ras El Hekma agreement, the float of the EGP, and later foreign portfolio inflows.

CSCEC subsidiary inks agreement to operate new capital’s business district

Egyptian-Chinese consortium inks agreement to operate new capital’s business district: A consortium of China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) subsidiary Umi Group and IGI Holding have signed an agreement with the New Urban Communities Authority to manage and operate the Central Business District in the New Administrative Capital, according to a Housing Ministry statement.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: The agreement will see the consortium take over the operations of the district once construction is complete, Housing Minister Sherif El Sherbiny said in the statement. The consortium will focus on using local components and training local employees, and will apply “advanced technology based on artificial intelligence, energy monitoring and management, carbon emission tracking, and environmental sustainability standards.”

Remember: A total of 20 administrative, commercial, and residential towers are being built by CSCEC — the largest construction company in the world by revenue — including the 400-meter-tall Iconic Tower in the new capital.

New Alamein is well on its way to having a new skyscraper: CSCEC has finalized the structural framework of the Iconic Tower in New Alamein, according to a Housing Ministry statement, with CSCEC General Manager Wen Bing stating that the project “serves as the cornerstone and central development hub within this promising city.” The tower was built by Egyptian and Chinese teams under the supervision of the Housing Ministry, and boasts the largest concrete base ever poured in Africa, according to Wen.

A new Alamein industrial zone is also in the works: CSCEC is looking into setting up an industrial zone in New Alamein, according to a cabinet readout of a meeting between Wen and Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly. The government is particularly interested in manufacturing EVs, renewable energy components, and construction materials in the area, Madbouly said, noting that with the many projects to develop the North Coast, which will require more construction materials.

The new capital’s medical city is still on the drawing board: Wen confirmed CSCEC’s commitment to establishing its planned medical city in the new capital as soon as possible in partnership with the Health Ministry. The project will be a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Wen added.

Remember: The General Organization for Teaching Hospitals and Institutes recently inked an MoU with CSCEC to design and construct the new medical city, which is expected to house 18 specialized clinics with over 4.2k beds, research centers, central laboratories, a blood bank, and other services. The project comes as Egypt aims to position itself as a medical tourism destination.

The company’s Ain Sokhna factories are up and running: Wen also noted CSCEC’s completion and launch of steel structure and glass facade plants in Ain Sokhna, with plans to expand by acquiring additional land.

Egypt hosts reps from Hamas and Fatah to discuss post-war Gaza

Egypt brings together rival Palestinian groups: Yesterday, Egypt hosted senior officials from Hamas and Fatah to discuss setting up a committee to run Gaza after the war, an unnamed official told Al Qahera News. The committee would be made up of independent figures that are not aligned with any movement and the idea was met positively and with flexibility from the two sides.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Hamas is persistent that a ceasefire agreement isn’t divided, fearing that Israel would resume its attacks on Gaza after Hamas hands over its hostages, the source told Al Qahera News.

Remember: Egypt has proposed an initial two-day ceasefire in Gaza to exchange Israeli detainees of Hamas for Palestinian prisoners. The temporary ceasefire would then see permanent ceasefire talks resume within 10 days. While initially both sides were reportedly ready to commit to the new accord, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was said to still be set on continuing Israel's invasion and strikes on northern Gaza during ceasefire negotiations, going against one of Hamas’ key conditions.

AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF- El Sisi, Burns discuss ceasefire: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and newly-appointed General Intelligence Service head Hassan Rashad met with CIA Director William Burns on Thursday to discuss the latest efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and exchange of hostages, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The meeting followed Burns’ three-day trip to Doha for talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials.

Aid facilitation topped the agenda: El Sisi discussed ways to facilitate the movement of aid into Gaza to address the enclave’s growing humanitarian crisis as Israel moves to ban UNRWA, the UN agency that provides aid and support to Palestinian refugees — effectively barring aid from the largest aid provider to Gaza and the Palestinians.

El Sisi and Burns also discussed the escalations in Lebanon, with El Sisi stressing the need for an immediate ceasefire to preserve the country’s sovereignty.

Saudi Egyptian Developers secures EGP 4.4 bn from eight banks

SED secures EGP 4.4 bn to fund New Cairo project: New Urban Communities Authority and Saudi Finance Ministry JV Saudi Egyptian Developers (SED) has secured EGP 4.4 bn from a syndicate of eight banks led by FABMisr, according to a statement (pdf). The loan was 1.5 times oversubscribed and will fund a portion of the investment costs of the developer’s EGP 25 bn mixed-use Central project in New Cairo.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The breakdown: FABMisr — which led the syndicate as the primary lead arranger and financing agent — contributed the largest share of the loan with EGP 800 mn, followed by Emirates NBD at EGP 750 mn, Amwal Al Ghad reports, citing banking sources. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Egypt and Arab Bank each provided EGP 650 mn, while the Housing and Development Bank and EG Bank allocated EGP 500 mn each. Midbank added EGP 300 mn, while Al Baraka Bank contributed EGP 200 mn.

The loan will allow SED to fast-track construction, with delivery expected within 3-4 years, company CEO Mohamed El Taher told Asharq Business. Project investments have reached over EGP 26 bn, with sales exceeding EGP 36 bn, El Taher added.

Advisors: Matouk Basiouny & Hennawy served as legal advisor to the lenders, while White & Case acted as legal counsel to the borrower.

GUARANTEES FROM THE EBRD-

EBRD to help CIB boost SME lending: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will provide a EUR 25 mn unfunded financial guarantee for CIB to boost SME lending in Egypt, the lender said on its website. The agreement has passed the final review and is pending approval.

The details: The agreement will see the EBRD guarantee 50% of a portfolio worth up to EUR 50 mn of SME sub-loans that CIB will issue over the next five years, allowing the bank to expand its lending capacity nationwide.

DIG DEEPER- September’s EnterpriseAM Finance Forum brought together some of the brightest minds in SME financing to discuss new and existing efforts to finance these higher-risk enterprises.

EFG Hermes remains at top of the Egyptian Exchange brokerage league in October

EFG Hermes’s brokerage arms topped the EGX brokerage league table in October, with a total market share of 15.4%, according to figures from the bourse (pdf). Rounding out the top five were Thndr Securities (8.5%), CI Capital (6.0%), Mubasher Securities (5.7%), and Beltone Holding (5.4%)

Adib weighs in on Fitch Ratings upgrading our credit rating

On a calmer than usual night on the airwaves, two topics took over. El Hekayah’s Amr Adib had a lot to say about Fitch Ratings upgrading our credit rating to B and he interviewed an expert to weigh in on Egypt hosting Hamas and Fatah representatives yesterday.

Adib’s two cents: “Egypt is currently catching its breath after an extremely difficult period that saw FX shortages, power outages, and market and budget problems,” Adib said (watch, runtime: 23:51), and emphasized that “the next eight months will be decisive for the economy.” Our improved credit rating by Fitch Ratings indicates that “we’re on the right track.

What went down at the negotiations table yesterday? Hamas and Fatah representatives came together in Cairo yesterday for Egypt-led discussions aimed at bringing the two rival groups closer. “Saturday, November 2, 2024, was different from what we've seen over the past year of aggression on Gaza,” Command and Staff College advisor Osama Mahmoud told Adib (watch, runtime: 8:56). The Egyptian-hosted meetings resulted in an agreement between representatives of both movements to form a committee responsible for managing Gaza after the Israeli war ends, Mahmoud said.

** We have more on both stories in the news well, above.

Egyptian gov’t denies claims it received an Israel-bound arms shipment

It’s a busy morning for Egypt in the foreign press, with Reuters covering allegations that Egypt received an Israel-bound arms shipment, which the Transport Ministry was quick to deny, explaining that the shipment had been intended for and received by the Military Production Ministry. The Egyptian military in a separate statement made it clear that there is no kind of cooperation between it and the Israeli army.

More claims invalidated: Reuters quotes two unnamed Egyptian officials dismissing Israeli claims that the Israeli military had shot a drone coming in from Egypt attempting to smuggle in weapons to Israel.

AND- Bloomberg is out with a piece on the successful battle to rid Egypt of malaria, with the outlet noting the significance of Egypt’s designation by the World Health Organization as malaria-free. The outlet notes that Egypt is only the third country in the region and the first since 2010 to receive the designation.

Hospitality players’ EGP 50 bn subsidized loan program goes live

HOSPITALITY-

#1- The finance and tourism ministries have officially launched a new EGP 50 bn subsidized loan program for the tourism sector, according to a joint statement. The initiative will offer financing at 12% interest, providing tourism operators with extended support to expand facilities and accommodate an anticipated growth in visitor numbers — with a focus on key tourist destinations in Luxor, Aswan, Greater Cairo, the Red Sea, and South Sinai governorates.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Refresher: The program, which was approved by the cabinet back in July, will give the eligible companies access to up to EGP 1 bn in financing —- rising to EGP 2 bn for related entities, over the course of one year. Funding must be accessed within 16 months, with companies receiving a six-month grace period to obtain final or temporary operating licenses. Under the program, participating companies will have to convert some 40% of their foreign currency revenue through formal banking channels. The program will run until the end of June 2026.

#2- Cairo will be home to the world’s largest Sofitel: French hospitality group Accor Group will open its Sofitel Cairo Downtown Nile — the largest Sofitel in the world — in January 2025, according to a statement. The 615-key hotel is Accor’s fourth Sofitel in Egypt and will include four dining venues, a wellness center, and some 2k sqm of venue space. The hotel will operate under a management agreement with the International Company for Touristic Investments.

REGULATIONS-

FRA issues new regulations for ins. firms: The Financial Regulatory Authority has issued a new decision that requires ins. companies to regularize their operations in line with the Unified Ins. Law by 1 December. according to an FRA statement.

Remember: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ratified the Unified Ins. Law back in July. The law aims to regulate ins. companies, special funds, obligatory operations such as highway accidents, and state the new supervisory rules for the ins. industry.

LOGISTICS-

Egypt activates oil agreement with Fujairah: Egypt has welcomed the first oil tanker as part of an MoU inked with the Emirate of Fujairah earlier this year, according to an Oil Ministry statement on Friday. The MoU, signed in August, outlines plans to transform Al Hamra port on the Mediterranean coast into a USD 3 bn petroleum logistics zone. The construction of the zone is reportedly expected to kick off in 1H 2025, with an estimated completion time of three years.

LEISURE-

Somabay partners with Wander Development to develop, manage, and operate a new commercial hub, expected to be completed by 2025, according to a statement (pdf). The project will include shopping spaces, food and beverage outlets, workspace solutions, and hospitality offerings.

WATER SECURITY-

More collaboration on water security for Egypt and Uganda: Egypt and Uganda announced plans to collaborate on water projects aimed at benefiting all Nile Basin countries, agreeing to hold a joint political consultation session to discuss water security, according to a statement.

AVIATION-

Air Cairo has launched a new regular flight route linking Cairo, Aswan, and Abu Simbel. Over 70 international tourists were aboard the route’s inaugural flight last week, according to a Civil Aviation Ministry statement. The airline increased its weekly flights between Cairo and Aswan to 26, between Aswan and Abu Simbel to nine, and between Cairo and Luxor to 20.

That’s not all: Air Cairo last week commenced the first of its flights from Giza’s Sphinx International Airport to Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada. The flight operator has plans to expand its international network and increase its fleet to 40 aircrafts by March 2025.

IMF lowers MENA growth forecast amid regional conflicts and oil cuts

The Middle East region’s economic growth is expected to slow to 2.1% in 2024, down from an earlier estimate of 2.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest regional economic outlook (pdf). Next year’s growth forecast was also trimmed to 4%, driven by insufficient foreign direct investment amid regional wars and high debt levels in middle-income economies.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The IMF attributed the slowdown to regional conflicts, particularly the escalated tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Sudan, impacting stability and potentially creating “lasting economic losses,” according to the report — a projection echoed by the IMF’s MENA and Central Asia director, Jihad Azour, in an interview with Bloomberg.

There’s some flexibility on structural reform, but not much: States around the conflict zone, including Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq, “need to be protective to preserve their macroeconomic stability,” Azour said. However, “crucial structural reforms could face rising social discontent and political resistance, hindering policy execution and constraining growth.”

Oil cuts are also to blame: Oil production cuts imposed by OPEC+ are also squeezing revenues for oil-reliant MENA economies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The oil management alliance recently delayed a planned supply increase to December, citing weak demand from China and increased production elsewhere.

But the non-oil sector remains a bright spot: “Growth of the non-oil sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council has been resilient and has been driving the growth for the last couple of years,” Azour said.

Less gloomy on the global front: The IMF revised downwards its forecast for global growth in 2025 to 3.2%, a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from its July estimate, on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism.

EGX30	30,658	+0.9% (YTD: +23.2%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 48.89	Sell 49.03
USD (CIB)	Buy 48.88	Sell 48.98
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	12,022	0% (YTD: +0.5%)
ADX	9,349	+0.2% (YTD: -2.4%)
DFM	4,621	+0.7% (YTD: +13.8%)
S&P 500	5,729	+0.4% (YTD: +20.1%)
FTSE 100	8,177	+0.8% (YTD: +5.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,878	+1.0% (YTD: +7.9%)
Brent crude	USD 73.10	+0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.66	-1.6%
Gold	USD 2,749	0%
BTC	USD 69,271	-0.2% (YTD: +64.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.0 bn (6.3% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 23.2% YTD.

In the green: Emaar Misr (+4.8%), Ezz Steel (+3.6%), and Abu Qir Fertilizers (+3.4%).

In the red: Juhayna (-1.1%), Egypt Kuwait Holding - USD, and Eastern Company (-0.7%).

CALENDAR

2024

NOVEMBER

2-3 November (Saturday-Sunday): The Iraq Investment Forum.

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

7-9 November (Thursday-Saturday): FinExpo Conference and Exhibition, Cairo.

8-9 November (Friday-Saturday): Carerha Summit 2024, Cairo, Egypt.

10-12 November (Sunday-Tuesday): Falak Startups’ Fund Manager Masterclass, Cairo, Egypt.

12-15 November (Tuesday-Friday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit, Aswan, Egypt.

17-19 November (Sunday-Tuesday): Autotech Exhibition for Automotive Aftermarket & Feeder Industries, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): Annual Digital Nation Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

28-30 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Cairo International Wood and Wood Machinery Show, Cairo, Egypt

30 November (Saturday): Deadline to apply for renewable energy projects under the peer-to-peer (P2P) system.

DECEMBER

16-17 December (Monday-Tuesday): Mining World Conference 2024, London, UK.

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

First week of November: Egypt-Turkey high-level trade consultation mechanism.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

28 January (Tuesday): Nigeria to inaugurate the USD 5 bn Africa Energy Bank in Abuja.

7-10 April 2025 (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE.

May 2025: Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

March 2025: Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily