Good morning, folks. It’s all about the IMF in today’s issue, with the Fund’s latest report giving its latest growth forecasts for Egypt, the region, and the wider world. And if that wasn’t enough IMF news for you, a whole host of senior Egyptian ministers are in Washington this week for the the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings.

We’ve got this and so much more in the issue this morning. So, let's jump right in.

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PSA-

WEATHER-It’s a hot, summer, and dusty day in Cairo today, with a high of 36°C and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s much the same in Alexandria, with a high of 36°C and a low of 18°C.

While over in the UAE, it didn’t rain lizards and frogs yesterday, but flying patiofurniture was a thing as torrential rain led to power outages, flooding, and property damage in Dubai. Water coursed through the Mall of the Emirates and a conference in festival city. Runways at Dubai International Airport were also flooded, prompting a 25-minute shutdown and the cancellation of dozens of flights. And cars did their best submarine imitation on major roadways.

In context: It was the most single-day rainfall the UAE has seen in 75 years.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day three of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings and a number of our ministers are in Washington to take part in the meetings and make the rounds. Check out the full schedule for the gathering — which kicked off in Washington on Monday and runs through 20 April — here.

#1- El Said to take the stage: Planning Minister Hala El Said will share her insights on improving economic stability in conflict-affected regions in a panel discussion titled Policymaking in Times of Conflict and Instability. During her time in Washington, El Said will also participate in symposiums on promoting comprehensive growth and gender equality, capital flows, and economic forecasts for the Middle East and Asia.

#2- Al Mashat also has a packed schedule: International Cooperation Minister Rania AlMashat is participating in a number of talks and high-level events throughout the spring meetup. Later today, Al Mashat will take part in the African Consultative Group’s ministerial meeting with World Bank president Ajay Banga before taking part in the Peterson Institute’s conference on rethinking economic policy, according to a statement from the ministry.

ALSO- CultureFest kicks off today: The AUC’s Tahrir CultureFest — held at AUC Tahrir Square running from today until Monday — is a celebration of the Cairene spirit. Panel discussions about Cairo’s history, people, and evolving culture will kick off the festival, and will be accompanied by live music, a book bazaar, a local market, and art exhibitions. Register for the event here.

WORTH NOTING FROM DAY TWO OF THE IMF AND WORLD BANK’S SPRING MEETUP-

#1- Maait on economic stability: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait yesterday held a one-on-one conversation with the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia head Jihad Azour under the title Egypt: Lessons in Restoring Macroeconomic Stability.

The finance minister has a three-point plan to make sure that Egypt keeps up the momentum of its economic reform agenda following the float in the face of an increasingly difficult situation across the region:

• Number one and the “most important” is to push towards getting inflation down towards the central bank’s average inflation target of 7% (±2%) — which is still optimistically penciled in for 4Q 2024;
• Number two is to work on bringing interest rates down after their 600 bps jump in March;
• And number three is to support human development by improving healthcare and education, while working towards an economy that better serves its people.

#2- It’s only day two, and Al Mashat has been doing the rounds: Al Mashat metwith World Bank officials to discuss challenges facing EMs, how the bank can reform its business model to better address poverty and provide development finance, and the bank’s USD 500 mn financing for the Takaful and Karama program. The international cooperation minister also took part in a meeting of G24 ministers and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia’s meeting on how debt swaps can support achieving climate action targets and Sustainable Development Goals.

And that’s not all: Al Mashat also met with officials from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to discuss joint efforts in developing Egypt’s Universal Health Ins. System — which JICA pledged some JPY 44 bn in concessional financing last year — as well as investing in human capital and the green transition.

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Apply directly to jobs@enterprisemea.com and mention “writing development program” in your subject line.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1-Dusting off old state projects: The government is looking to restart a number of stalled state projects building social housing, waste management facilities, and water infrastructure, according to a cabinet statement.

The context: This comes as the government readies itself for a new fiscal year and just after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi enters his third term, which both come with big targets to meet. Last month’s influx of foreign currency has also no doubt helped the state’s capacity to restart these projects.

#2- Minimum wage exemptions now available to the private sector? Private sector companies with more than ten workers will now be able to submit a request to their local chamber of commerce if they feel they are unable to pay their workers the newly proposed minimum wage, according to an official circular seen by Al Borsa.

Remember: The National Council for Wages has decided to raise the minimum wage for private sector workers earlier this month to EGP 6k a month up from EGP 3.5k currently starting May.

#3- Qatar and Algeria will become our two main sources of LNG, as the government seeks to import up to 52.5 bn cubic feet to meet heightened summer demand, Al Borsa reported, citing an unnamed government official.

ICYMI: Egypt is looking to buy more LNG ahead of higher demand during summer. The government has already purchased at least two shipments of LNG to be delivered next month, and is in talks to lease a floating regasification unit from Norway’s BW Energy for five years.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Shoukry to touch down in Turkey: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will head toTurkey this weekend to hold talks with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan regarding developments of the war in Gaza, reports Reuters, citing an unnamed Turkish diplomatic source.

Remember: Egypt and Turkey opened a new chapter on their relationship in February when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan landed in Cairo for the first time since 2012 and held talks with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- A retail rendezvous: The second edition of Savills Retail Connect is back on 14 May at Esca Cueva in New Giza with panel discussions, retail industry insights, and networking. Speakers will include Savills Middle East CEO Steven Morgan, Head of Northern Gulf Harry Goodson-Wickes, and Head of Property Management Insights Stephen Toal. Tap or click here to register your interest to attend.

#2- Prepare to turn your clocks an hour forward: Daylight saving time starts on Friday, 26 April. You’ll be losing an hour’s sleep as clocks jump forward one hour until the final Thursday of October.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Strap yourselves in, folks: It’s shaping up to be a very busy day for business news in our region and around the world.

#1- Are we in the “Tepid Twenties”? That was the warning from IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva to officials and businesses around the world as we headed into this week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings. It’s only by driving growth, harnessing AI, and dealing with climate change that we can turn them into the “Transformational Twenties, she said.

Her caution runs through the latest update to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which shares top billing on this morning’s front pages (Bloomberg | CNBC) with Jay Powell’s remarks on interest rates (below).

The global economy will grow by 3.2% in this year and next — on par with last year — the IMF writes in the WEO. That’s essentially the midpoint between the really slow growth we saw in the 2010s and the rapid growth we saw in the early years of this decade during the freemoney era. (We have more on the WEO’s outlook for Egypt in this morning’s news well, below.)

The tent poles: The US economy will grow at a 2.7% clip, faster than most advanced economies, while China’s GDP will expand at a 4.6% clip, unchanged from last year.

A flashing red light: “Progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a news conference on the WEO yesterday.

#2- Enter Jay Powell, who “dialed back expectations of a [US] rate cut” in remarks that “called into question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates this year without signs of an unexpected economic slowdown,” the Wall Street Journal reports. His worry: Inflation in the first quarter was higher than he’d have liked. Powell’s remarks also lead the front page of the Financial Times.

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES THIS MORNING:

#3- In geopolitics: We’re still waiting for Israel’s next move on Iran after Tel Aviv’s war cabinet yesterday postponed its meeting to today.

The hope in Western policymaking circles: That a basket of new sanctions on Iran might convince Israel not to retaliate for Iran’s drone and missile attack overnight Sunday (itself retaliation for an unprecedented attack by Israel on Iran’s embassy in Syria).

#4- In business: Microsoft has made a massive USD 1.5 bn investment in the UAE’s G42, arguably the region’s most important AI firm, EnterpriseAM UAE reports. The transaction completes G42’s pivot away from China and onto US technology, Bloomberg notes. The story is also getting prominent play in the Financial Times.

Speaking of AI: Andreessen Horowitz has raised USD 7.2 bn to invest in AI-anchored companies, the firm said in a note yesterday. The high-profile VC’s fund is among the biggest to close since the downturn in the VC “ecosystem” began a couple of years back.

Big themes for the fund: Infrastructure, growth, games, apps, and “ American dynamism ” (don’t get us started).

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We discuss how the Madbouly government’s extensive plan to develop and modernize transport infrastructure can facilitate logistic services across the country and enhance locally made products’ regional and global competitiveness.