IFC to issue EGP 100 bn worth of bonds

Wednesday, 15 Oct 2025

IFC to issue EGP 100 bn worth of bonds

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Today at a glance

DEBT WATCH

IFC to issue EGP 100 bn worth of EGP-denominated bonds as early as 2025.

Energy

Oil Ministry unveils USD 5.7 bn plan to drill hundreds of exploration wells.

Manufacturing

Gov’t grants new exemption periods from delay penalties and fees for under-construction factories.

Startup watch

Local startups need unified laws, faster licensing, and early-stage funding to unlock growth, says Entlaq.

DEBT WATCH

B.TECH closes EGP 1.5 bn securitization.

Moves

Odin’s Hashem El Sayed appointed assistant PM, head of state-owned companies cabinet unit.

Also on our Radar

More cement production licenses incoming?

PLANET FINANCE

IMF upgrades global growth forecast, warns of tariffs and AI bubble.

HARDHAT

Gov’t wants to almost double electricity and renewables investments this fiscal year.

What We're Tracking Today

Kouchouk relays a message of reassurance to investors

Good morning, friends. We’re halfway through what has been a pretty eventful October and we don’t expect the news flow to slow down as the month draws to a close. We lead today’s issue with debt news, with the IFC gearing up to issue EGP 100 bn worth of bonds within months.

ALSO IN TODAY’S ISSUE- The Madbouly government unveils its plan to up oil and gas exploration in the years to come and we dive into Entlaq’s report dissecting our startup scene.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cool fall day in Cairo, with a high of 28°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 27°C and a low of 18°C.

GDP WATCH-

The IMF expects Egypt’s economy to grow 4.3% in 2025, according to the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook (pdf). The fund also sees the economy growing 4.5% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2030. While the report didn’t offer much commentary on Egypt, it mentioned that “the outturn in the first half of 2025 was better than expected.” The report doesn’t mention growth projections for the country’s fiscal year, which runs from July to June.

What about the global picture? We dive deeper into the WOE in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

More to come: Expect more commentary on Egypt when the IMF releases its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia on 21 October.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The economy is showing signs of improvement and steady growth amid rising investor confidence, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told international investors on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetup in Washington, according to a ministry statement. Recent economic and fiscal reforms have helped sustain stability and push growth to 4.4%, Kouchouk said.

Driving growth: Private sector investments grew 73% last fiscal year, supported by better governance of public investments, which created more space for private participation and lowered the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio. Kouchouk added that fiscal policy now focuses on boosting production and exports and making growth more inclusive, while improved economic policies have helped ease inflation.

#2- Owners of New Urban Communities Authority-established units will soon get a three-month window to settle late payment fees under more favorable conditions, following the proposal’s approval by the Housing Ministry, according to a ministry statement. The move covers all types of land — residential, commercial, service, investment, industrial, and legalization plots — as well as coastal units.

The authority will grant a 70% waiver on late-payment fines for those who pay all outstanding dues in full and a 50% waiver for those who pay half. An additional 10% reduction applies if payment is made within 30 days of the official announcement. The measure, which can only be used once within the three-month period, is part of the government’s broader drive to ease burdens on citizens and investors and maintain a favorable climate for real estate investment.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s day three of the World Bank and IMF annual meetup in Washington. Yesterday’s release of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook is continuing to get a lot of ink in the financial press this morning, after the Fund noted the global economy’s “unexpected resilience” despite global tariff war uncertainty weighing on growth. This pushed the fund to up its global GDP forecast 0.2 percentage points from its July projection to 3.2%.

** Want to dive headfirst into the report to find out more? We’ve got a rundown in today’s Planet Finance in the news well, below.

#2- It’s day four of Cairo Water Week, the country’s annual event to discuss innovative solutions for climate resilience and water sustainability, which is taking place at New Cairo’s Triumph Luxury Hotel and will wrap tomorrow. The event’s packed schedule includes workshops, exhibitions, and sessions around adaptation to climate change, water resource management, nature-based solutions, and sustainable infrastructure. The event will also host competitions for young inventors and showcase new technologies aimed at advancing the water sector in Egypt and the region.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Government bonds rallied yesterday as equities took a hit and investors piled into safe haven assets following renewed tensions between the US and China as the latter faces a 100% tariff on its goods after it tightened export controls on rare earth minerals.

The yield on the UK’s benchmark 10-year government bond — gilts — lost 8 basis points, while yields on US 10-year Treasuries fell 3 basis points, and yields on bonds in France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and Japan all edged lower. (CNBC)

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled he would back another rate cut as preliminary labor market data shows signs of distress, despite the official jobs market data being delayed to the ongoing US government shutdown. (Financial Times)

CLOSER TO HOME- The fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement has already started to face snags, just a day after US President Donald Trump heralded the end of the war during his visit to the region. Israel said it would limit the volume of humanitarian aid going into Gaza to half since Hamas has failed to return the bodies of some of the deceased hostages, as was agreed. Hours later, though, Hamas delivered some of the bodies, but US President Donald Trump is threatening Hamas with retaliation if it does not lay down its arms.

The question of Hamas’ disarmament remains contentious, with Hamas yet to comply as it deploys hundreds of security forces in Gaza and follows through with executions of several people accused of collaborating with Israel. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Guardian)

Trump is also threatening to cut financial aid to Argentina if current president — and Trump ally — Javier Milei loses the upcoming election, threatening a USD 20 bn commitment to the country. (Guardian | Reuters | AP | New York Times)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at what the state is doing to up electricity and renewables investments this fiscal year.

Tags:

Ahmed Kouchouk What We're Tracking Today

From October 12–16, Somabay hosted the Somabay World Cup for the first time in Egypt, welcoming 173 participants from 19 countries to its signature Red Sea course. The tournament spotlighted Egypt’s growing presence on the global golf map, set against Somabay’s year-round sunshine, luxury resorts, and world-class sports and leisure scene.

DEBT WATCH

IFC to issue EGP 100 bn worth of EGP-denominated bonds as early as 2025

The government gave the International Finance Corporation (IFC) the green light to resume its EGP-denominated bond program plan, a government source told EnterpriseAM. Under the proposed plan, the World Bank’s private sector-focused arm will list the bonds on the EGX before on-lending the proceeds to Egyptian private sector companies.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The IFC is expected to issue up to EGP 100 bn worth of financial instruments in the first phase — equivalent to USD 2.1 bn at today’s exchange rate — with the initial issuance likely to take place before the end of 2025 or in 1Q 2026, the source said.

The program is all about the IFC acting as a market catalyst, helping persuade otherwise hesitant local investors to mobilize their capital and channel it to local companies. The IFC’s triple A rating can attract large local players with substantial EGP liquidity — think pension funds and ins. companies — that are only really interested in long-term and, importantly, safe assets. Via the IFC as essentially a mediator and guarantor, these funds originating from local investors can be made available to local companies — especially those that have difficulty acquiring traditional financing.

It also protects local companies looking to borrow from the risk of currency mismatch, as the IFC will on-lend EGP-denominated loans. Private sector borrowers often have to borrow in USD. This means that swings in the exchange rate create a lot of uncertainty, making financial planning difficult. The unpredictable liability can also scare away investors and, in the worst-case scenario, lead to bankruptcy. IFC-led loans also help in setting a reasonable pricing benchmark for others in the market to follow.

Issuing EGP-denominated bonds outside of Egypt could also be part of the plan, with a proposal from the IFC to expand the program to foreign markets getting the green light from the Finance Ministry, our source told us.

But there are still quite a few details to iron out, with work currently underway to formulate the mechanism and exact plan for both the local and international issuances planned by the IFC, our source added.

Tags:

debt watch

Energy

Egypt unveils USD 5.7 bn plan to drill hundreds of exploration wells

The government’s plan for oil and gas exploration over the next five years includes drilling 480 exploration wells at a total cost of USD 5.7 bn, Oil Minister Karim Badawi said at the World Energies Summit.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

In 2026 alone, the state plans to drill 101 wells — 67 in the Western Desert, 14 in the Mediterranean, nine in the Gulf of Suez, and six in the Nile Delta — as part of efforts to boost local production.

Seismic surveys are being launched to identify fresh exploration prospects, including a survey in the East Mediterranean by EGAS and the Schlumberger-Viridien alliance. Similar projects are underway in the Western Desert and the Gulf of Suez.

Recent incentives have supported expansion, with 21 new exploration agreements worth some USD 1.1 bn signed in the past year and 300 wells brought online, Badawi said. Meanwhile, gas output rose in August, marking the first monthly increase in years, Badawi noted.

DATA POINT- Petrochemical exports are projected to increase to USD 4.2 bn by 2030, up from USD 2.4 bn this year, through expanded production and new projects.

REMEMBER- Egypt plans to stop importing LNG by 2030 and significantly up exports by 2027.

The Oil Ministry will soon launch an international tender for oil and gas exploration in the Red Sea through the Egypt Upstream Gateway (EUG), according to a ministry statement.

AND- The China National Offshore Oil Corporation expressed interest in investing in Egypt’s oil and gas sector, particularly in the Mediterranean and Red Sea, according to a separate statement. Badawi also met with executives from Capricorn Energy, Woodside Energy, and Pharos Energy to discuss expanding their operations in the country.

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energy oil and gas

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Manufacturing

Egypt grants new exemption periods from delay penalties and fees for under-construction factories

The Industrial Development Authority (IDA) will provide grace periods for stalled industrial projects that have gone past their implementation deadlines, according to a statement from the Industry Ministry. The move aims to support factories that are struggling to restart operations and to accelerate the completion of those under construction.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Here’s what the package of new incentives for industrial projects entails:

A six-month grace period will be granted to industrial projects that have completed more than 50% of construction works, allowing them to finalize the project, obtain their operation and industrial registration licenses, with a full exemption from delay penalties for the duration of the grace period.
A 12-month grace period will be given to projects that have not yet started construction or have completed less than 50% of the work but already hold a building permit. These will be exempt from penalties for the first six months only, after which standard fees and penalties will apply.
An 18-month grace period will be granted to projects that have not yet obtained a building permit or begun construction to give them time to secure both building and operating licenses, as well as an industrial record. These projects will also be exempt from penalties for the first six months only, with standard fees applied afterward.
Reinstatement of withdrawn land: The decision also allows investors to reapply for land plots even after land allocations were withdrawn but not yet reallocated or offered to other investors, provided they pay the due penalties.

Manufacturers must submit an application to the authority before 30 April 2026 to qualify for the new incentives and be exempt from delay penalties and standard fees for not completing their projects on time. Once approved, the grace period will begin immediately. The move comes in response to requests from manufacturers with struggling projects, the statement said.

How are the fees and penalties calculated? Standard costs and delay penalties will be calculated according to the IDA’s governing rules and decisions. In case of failure to meet the new deadlines, land plots will be reclaimed, and legal measures will follow.

Tags:

Industrial Development Authority Manufacturing

Startup watch

Egypt’s startups need unified laws, faster licensing, and early-stage funding to unlock growth, says Entlaq

Egypt’s startups are brimming with potential but remain constrained by structural and regulatory hurdles, according to Entlaq’s Egyptian Entrepreneurship Diagnostics Report 2025. The report describes the ecosystem as “vibrant, imaginative, and expanding,” yet one that’s “constrained by structural bottlenecks, macroeconomic volatility, and fragmented governance.” It urges policymakers to translate the country’s entrepreneurial momentum into tangible outcomes by building what it calls “a durable engine for national growth.”

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Fragmented framework weighs on founders: The local startup landscape remains “undermined by institutional overlap and regulatory fragmentation, with no single authority empowered to lead national startup strategy,” the report reads. Multiple agencies “operate in silos, resulting in conflicting mandates and a lack of coherent direction.” Despite reforms, “startup registration remains complex and slow, especially outside Cairo,” with survey data showing that 68% of startups are unaware of their eligibility under Law 152, and “nearly half are not registered with MSMEDA.” The report deduced that “incremental reforms will no longer suffice,” calling for “a calibrated policy shift … that redefines the relationship between startups, the state, and society.”

Registration overhaul at the top of the list: Entlaq’s short-term roadmap begins with fixing registration. “Egypt's current startup registration process is riddled with institutional fragmentation, forcing founders to navigate redundant procedures across GAFI, MSMEDA, FRA, ITIDA, and the Commercial Registry.” With an average registration time of 18-30 business days, compared with 4.5 in the UAE and 2 in Rwanda, the system “inhibits market entry and disincentivizes formalization.” A centralized digital registry modeled after the UAE's Basher could slash registration timelines to under seven days and help ramp up formalization rates by 40%, the report recommends.

Capital still trapped in Cairo: The report underscores the concentration of venture funding in the capital, pointing out that “pre-seed and seed-stage startups in Egypt remain acutely underfunded, with only 4% of VC capital reaching this segment, primarily in Cairo.” The capital gobbles up some 90% of all funding, leaving other governorates “chronically underserved.” To correct this imbalance, Entlaq proposes a “targeted EGP 500 mn pre-seed fund, with 40% earmarked for regional micro-funds,” designed to “democratize capital flows and crowd in early-stage investors.” The fund could help more than 500 startups — half of which are based outside Cairo — within a year, eventually generating 10k jobs and “jumpstarting inclusive ecosystem growth.”

Policy, data, and IP gaps still wide: Despite progress under Law 152, the report warns of persistent governance bottlenecks, noting that “there is no centralized startup observatory or public dashboard aggregating funding trends, founder demographics, or policy outcomes.”

The absence of unified data “stifles investor visibility and evidence-based policymaking.” The report proposes creating a National Startup Observatory “to collect, harmonize, and publish real-time ecosystem data,” equipped with AI-based analytics and open-data standards to “shift Egypt's innovation policymaking from anecdotal to evidence-based.” It also calls for a National Intellectual Property and Innovation Commercialization Law, as “fewer than 2% of registered patents are licensed for market use,” and urges the establishment of “Technology Transfer Offices (TTOs) across all public universities.”

Public procurement, exits, and taxation: Public tenders remain “structurally inaccessible to startups due to legacy criteria like past performance and financial guarantees.” Entlaq’s roadmap includes “a ‘Startup Fast Track’ across national programs such as Hayah Karima and Digital Egypt” that would “reserve 5-10% of contracts for eligible startups.” At the same time, Egypt’s 19 mn freelancers and gig workers “remain largely informal due to tax ambiguity and lack of micro-enterprise tools.” A ministerial decree under the Income Tax Law could introduce “simplified flat tax bands (5-10%)” and “formalize over 100k freelancers within a year.”

Legal reforms for the medium term: To move beyond patchwork regulations, the report calls for a dedicated Startup Law “modeled on Tunisia’s Startup Act and Senegal’s Law No. 2020-01” that would “institutionalize a clear legal identity for startups.” The report says this would “could formalize over 15k ventures, boost pre-seed investments by up to 60%, and elevate Egypt's startup survival rate to over 35%.” The mid-term agenda also includes “digital sandboxes for regulatory experimentation” across “healthtech, edtech, and agritech,” and startup units in every governorate to provide “one-stop access to registration, advisory, co-working spaces, procurement pilots, and local data mapping.”

Long-term vision: For the long haul, Entlaq envisions embedding startups into national strategy. It recommends establishing “a Startup Investment Arm within the Sovereign Fund of Egypt” to provide “long-term capital anchoring through blended finance, co-investments with DFIs, and fund-of-funds models.” On talent, it finds that “over 51% [of youth] express interest in launching a business, [but] fewer than 15% of students receive any structured training in business formation, innovation, or digital economy skills.” Embedding entrepreneurship in the national curriculum could, the report says, “equip over 4 mn students with the entrepreneurial literacy necessary to fuel Egypt's next wave of inclusive growth.”

The bottom line: The report concludes that “economic resilience cannot be achieved without unlocking the potential of Egypt’s demographic dividend,” framing youth, gender, and regional inclusion as “cross-cutting equity imperatives.”

Tags:

Entlaq Startup watch startups

DEBT WATCH

B.TECH closes EGP 1.5 bn securitization

B.TECH completed a EGP 1.5 bn securitization issuance, which marks its first issuance under a EGP 10 bn program, according to a statement (pdf) from counsel Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy. Capital Securitization Company, a licensed SPV, issued the bonds backed by B.TECH’s receivables.

B.TECH’s transaction comes amid a flurry of October issuances in the securitized debt market. MNT-Halan’s microfinance arm Tasaheel completed a EGP 3.75 bn issuance, its third under a EGP 20 bn program. Valu also closed a EGP 1.1 bn issuance, the second under its EGP 10 bn program, while Contact Financial Holding wrapped up a EGP 1.3 bn issuance. The wave of activity highlights continued momentum in Egypt’s nonbank securitization space, as consumer finance players tap capital markets to free up liquidity.

ADVISORS- Al Ahly Pharos served as the financial advisor, Baker Tilly as the auditor, and Middle East Rating & Investors Service (Meris) as the rating agency.

IN OTHER DEBT NEWS-

Al Baraka Bank Egypt inked a EGP 200 mn financing agreement with the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise Development Agency (MSMEDA) to on-lend to SME projects across Egypt at competitive rates, according to a statement (pdf). The lender will focus on digital transformation, industrial, and agricultural projects.

Tags:

B.TECH debt debt watch

Moves

Odin’s Hashem El Sayed appointed assistant PM, head of state-owned companies cabinet unit

Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly appointed Odin Investments CEO Hashem El Sayed as assistant prime minister and head of the cabinet’s unit dedicated to state-owned companies, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette. El Sayed will serve a four-year term, which could be renewed once.

REMEMBER- Last year, the cabinet approved a draft law establishing the central unit dedicated to state-owned companies — dubbed the State-Owned Companies Inventory and Follow-Up Unit — with the aim of regulating state ownership in companies that the government wholly owns or holds stakes in.

Tags:

Madbouly Cabinet moves state privatization program

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Samih Sawiris says the state is finally recognizing investors’ importance

Lamees El Hadidi sat down with Egyptian businessman Samih Sawiris on her show El Sora — the two discussed the investment landscape and the local real estate bubble (runtime: 02:09 | 03:14). Sawiris said that 2025 marks the first year he feels the government has begun to recognize “the importance of investors, both large and small,” adding that moving forward more steps need to be taken to remove barriers faced by investors to attract new investment and expand existing ones.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

On the slowdown in the real estate market, Sawiris said the correction was necessary, adding that he is pleased with the decline in sales as the previous pace had signaled the risk of a bubble.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS real estate Samih Sawiris

Also on our Radar

More cement production licenses incoming?

MANUFACTURING-

#1- The Madbouly government is planning to offer two new cement production licenses before the end of 2025 to boost capacity and curb local price increases, Asharq Business reports, citing three unnamed government officials. Each license will include a full production line that will add between 1.5-2 mn tons in annual output.

The move aims to meet growing domestic and regional demand amid an expected uptick in reconstruction projects across the region. Industry insiders expect local cement consumption to rise to around 52 mn tons by the end of 2025 — up from 47 mn tons last year — supported by higher construction activity and stronger market demand.

REMEMBER- The Industry Ministry announced that factories increasing output this month will receive one-time discounts on fees tied to amendments in their production-capacity licenses, aiming to encourage higher utilization, stabilize prices, and ensure adequate domestic supply. The move follows a July directive that gave cement factories one month to restart idle production lines as part of efforts to balance supply and demand in the local market.

#2- Turkey’s Kipas Textiles plans to set up a USD 100 mn integrated denim fabric production complex in Sadat City. The project is part of the company’s efforts to expand its presence in Egypt.

REMEMBER-Egypt has been in talks with the Turkish Clothing Manufacturers' Association to attract new investments in garment supplies and accessories, with a Turkish business delegation planning to visit Egypt before the end of the year to explore establishing new factories to serve local and export markets.

BANKING-

CIB is planning to apply for a digital banking license early next year, Chairman Hisham Ezz Al Arab told Al Arabiya. He added that it will not take long to obtain the license as the bank has been working on developing its platform for over a year.

Everyone is lining up to get a digital banking license: QNB got the greenlight to establish the new digital bank EZBank earlier this month, Banque Misr’s Misr Digital Innovation received approval from the CBE to transform into the country's first fully digital-native bank onebank, and Raya Holding is planning on applying for a digital banking license by the end of the year.

REAL ESTATE-

Downtown Cairo-focused Al Ismaelia for Real Estate Investment has launched the TamaraHaus project to restore a historic Neo-Renaissance building in Downtown Cairo, originally built in the early 20th century, according to a statement. The building will be managed and operated by Alchemy Group’s Alchemy Experience and will serve as a cultural and lifestyle hub.

The details: Alchemy Experience invested around EGP 200 mn in the property over the past two years. The redevelopment will feature a boutique hotel, restaurant, and fitness studio, Ismaelia Chairman Karim Shafei said at a press conference attended by EnterpriseAM yesterday.

The developer expects to complete its capital increase by the end of this year or during the first quarter of 2026, according to Shafei. The capital hike is expected to accelerate the company’s investment plan to acquire new assets and develop several of its buildings in Downtown Cairo. The plan also includes developing 150-200 hotel units within two years, Shafei added.

Tags:

Al Ismaelia for Real Estate Investment ALSO ON OUR RADAR banking cement Central Bank of Egypt CIB Manufacturing real estate

PLANET FINANCE

IMF upgrades global growth forecast, warns of tariffs and AI bubble

The IMF upgrades global growth forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its July estimates, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf). The fund expects growth to ease further to 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast.

Behind the steady outlook: The IMF said global activity has held up better than expected despite trade policy shifts, supported by lower-than-expected tariff rates, an agile private sector that front-loaded imports and rerouted supply chains, a weaker dollar, fiscal stimulus in Europe and China, and an AI-driven investment boom. “So bottom line: not as bad as we feared, but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need,” Reuters quotes the IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas as saying earlier this week.

MENA gets an upgrade: The MENA region is expected to log a 3.3% growth this year, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from July projections. Growth is set to accelerate next year to 3.7%, a 0.3 point upgrade. The IMF cited Saudi Arabia’s fast-than-anticipated oil production hikes and Egypt’s better-than-expected outrun in the first half of the year as the main drivers of the upgrade.

Major economies saw mixed revisions: The IMF now expects the US to grow 2.0% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from its July forecast, while Japan’s 2025 growth got an upgrade by 0.4 percentage point to 1.1%. Meanwhile, the fund lowered its forecast for Canada’s growth by 0.4 percentage point to 1.2%, and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%.

China and India also see stronger outlooks: China’s 2025 outlook stayed unchanged at 4.8% on the back of increased exports that the IMF says were unsustainable, pointing at the country’s contracting real estate sector pushing its economy to “the edge of debt-deflation trap,” Gourinchas noted. Meanwhile, India’s growth forecast rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% for 2025, while the 2026 growth outlook got a downward revision to 6.2%, from earlier forecasts of 6.4%.

Across the Atlantic: Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.2% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from July, buoyed by Germany’s fiscal expansion and Spain’s growing momentum. The IMF expects the area’s growth to reach 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.2% in the previous forecast.

Trade remains a swing factor: The fund projects global trade volumes to grow 3.6% in 2025,, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff hikes. This front-loading effect will likely carry over into 2026, with trade growth forecast to rise to 2.3% — 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous projection.

AI bubble is a major downside risk: Growing investments in AI echo the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, Gourinchas said in a blogpost. ”Markets could reprice sharply, especially if AI fails to justify lofty profit expectations. That would dent wealth and curb consumption, with adverse effects potentially reverberating through the financial system,” Gourinchas added.

The inflation outlook: Global headline inflation is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, “virtually unchanged” from July’s or April’s projections. Inflation is expected to remain above target in the US, while easing in Europe and Asia, indicating lower growth performances.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are inching higher this morning, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 1.6% in early trading, while Japan’s Nikkei is up 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are subdued following a volatile session fueled by US-China trade concerns.

EGX30	37,459	+0.1% (YTD: +26.0%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.65	Sell 47.78
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.66	Sell 47.76
Interest rates (CBE)	21.00% deposit	22.00% lending
Tadawul	11,596	0.0% (YTD: -3.7%)
ADX	10,111	+0.1% (YTD: +7.3%)
DFM	6,033	+1.4% (YTD: +17.0%)
S&P 500	6,644	-0.2% (YTD: +13.0%)
FTSE 100	9,453	+0.1% (YTD: +15.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,552	-0.3% (YTD: +13.4%)
Brent crude	USD 62.28	-1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.01	-0.6%
Gold	USD 4,178	+0.4%
BTC	USD 113,327	-1.9% (YTD: +21.3%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	944.44	0.0% (YTD: +21.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.00	0.0% (YTD: +7.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	20.81	+9.4% (YTD: +19.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.9 bn (30.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 26.0% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Development (+3.4%), EFG Holding (+3.2%), and Egypt Kuwait Holding -EGP (+1.9%).

In the red: Arabian Cement (-3.6%), Ibnsina Pharma (-2.4%), and Orascam Construction (-2.1%).

Tags:

Financial Markets Planet Finance

HARDHAT

Egypt wants to almost double electricity and renewables investments this fiscal year

Egypt is looking towards the private sector to help it increase total investments in electricity and renewables to EGP 136.3 bn this fiscal year, up from EGP 72.6 bn in FY 2024-2025, according to a statement from the Planning Ministry. Under the plan, the private sector will account for 27% of total investment, with the public sector investing the remaining 73%.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The move would push electricity and renewables’ contribution to GDP to EGP 285 bn for the fiscal year, followed by annual growth of 15-20% to reach EGP 430 bn by the fiscal year 2028-29. Similarly, the country plans to increase the two sectors’ output to EGP 655.6 bn and then to EGP 984.4 bn by the fiscal year 2028-29.

Renewables are set to play an important role in achieving these goals, with the government looking to increase the share of renewable energy in the energy mix by eight percentage points this fiscal year to 20%. Solar and wind will drive this, with a targeted capacity of 6.5 GW by the end of June. A capacity of 2 GW of renewable energy was added this year, which in turn helped reduce electricity consumption from fossil fuels, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

The government seeks to support private sector participation in renewables by providing land, permits, and technical and financial support, with funding targeted through local and international partners. Expanding renewable energy activities will reduce the cost of electricity production and support Egypt’s transformation into a regional energy hub, our source told us.

Expanding electricity coverage nationwide to 99.8% by the end of FY 2025-2026 is also a priority, with Egypt now fully covered by electricity, except for some remote areas far from urban zones, such as a number of tourist areas in South Sinai, our source said. Converting overhead lines to underground cables and cutting electricity losses from 19.6% to 16.5% is also part of the plan to improve the grid.

One way it will do this is by upgrading transmission and distribution networks — including major transformer stations. A project to expand transformer stations in Tenth of Ramadan and Zahraa Nasr City is currently underway.

Unpredictable global fuel prices should push the public and private sectors to invest more in renewables, which could help significantly lessen our energy import bill, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The government has already made progress on that front, cutting its petroleum product import bill by USD 3.5 bn last fiscal year — a result in part driven by increased electricity generation from renewable sources.

The cost of grid interconnection remains an obstacle to diversifying investments and developing new projects, one of the sources told us, even though Egypt already has extensive plans and allocated lands for renewable energy projects, along with major existing investments and further projects planned in the coming period to increase the share of renewables.

Financing is also one of the biggest obstacles in the implementation of more projects, especially in the wind and solar power sectors, the source added. “We are currently in talks with several international partners to secure the necessary funding, in addition to providing government guarantees for the electricity sector as part of agreements with investors through public-private partnerships,” they said.

But new incentives are on the way to support the sector, including introducing a set of procedural facilitations and tax and custom breaks on equipment, one of the government sources told us. This will support upcoming projects such as power plants and transformer stations offered up under the PPP framework, they added.

Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

The Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit is abackup in case Israel — once again — cuts off gas supplies. The newly operational 450 mcf/d Energos Winter is currently only running at a fraction of its capacity, processing only 70 mcf/d from its berth in Damietta.
Vodafone Egypt has carried out the world’s first test of a commercial 50Gbps microwave link, which it did in partnership with Huawei Egypt and under the supervision of the National Telecom Regulatory Authority.

Tags:

electricity energy Hardhat renewables

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

12-16 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo.

13-18 October (Monday-Saturday): Annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

19-20 October (Sunday-Monday): Egypt to host the fifth edition of the Aswan Forum.

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

22 October (Wednesday): Egypt-EU Summit, Brussels, Belgium.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Stone Africa Expo, Cairo International Conference Center.

28 October (Tuesday): BEBA’s working dinner with Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

October: The tenth session of the Egyptian-Lebanese Joint Higher Committee.

Mid-October: Capmas to publish the findings of its 2023-2024 income and expenditure survey.

NOVEMBER

1 November (Saturday): The official opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

16-19 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23-25 November (Sunday-Tuesday): NEBU Expo 2025 gold and jewelry exhibition, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, New Cairo.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (Monday-Thursday), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

4-7 December (Thursday-Sunday): Egy Stitch & Tex Expo 2025, Cairo International Conference Center.

15 December (Monday): Neo Gen PropTech and Sustainable Smart Cities Conference, The St. Regis Hotel New Capital

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

December: Germany’s North Rhine-Westphala business delegation to land in Egypt.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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