Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. January is shaping up to be a month busy with good news and we’re not even halfway through it yet.

Up first: The USD / EGP exchange rate has reached lows not seen in months thanks to an influx of hot money as our treasury yields prove attractive to foreign investors. The USD was changing hands at as low as EGP 47.12 yesterday and forecasts expect the EGP to further strengthen after we receive the latest tranche of our IMF Extended Fund Facility, giving us reason to be optimistic about the months to come.

ALSO- Our dream of becoming a regional energy hub is closer than ever, now that we started supplying Lebanon and Syria with natural gas, helping them feed their power grids. While the gas supplied isn’t ours, it is being regasified by us and pushed north using the Arab Gas Pipeline, helping position Egypt as a regional energy hub.

AND- The Madbouly government is now working towards a more ambitious growth target for 2030 — it expects the economy to grow 7.5% with the private sector playing a pivotal role in achieving this target.

MEANWHILE- The House kicked off its third legislative term yesterday, electing Hisham Badwi as speaker as well as his two deputies — former housing minister Assem El Gazzar and former deputy of the House Health Committee Mohamed El Wahsh. The move sets the stage for President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to appoint a prime minister, who will then form their own cabinet.

Look out for: The highly-anticipated debt strategy, which the Finance Ministry is said to be releasing before the end of the month.

^^ All of this and more in this morning’s news well, below.

WEATHER- It’s another windy day here in Cairo, with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority forecasting heavy wind activity and a light chance of rain. Throughout the day expect to see highs of 18°C and lows of 11°C.

EGP watch

Hot money inflows drive the EGP to early 2026 highs. The country has seen a massive surge in hot money inflows since the start of the year, as foreign investors and funds double down on local debt instruments, pushing the EGP closer to the 47 mark against the greenback. Two banking sources tell EnterpriseAM that global appetite for EGP-denominated debt has spiked in both the primary and secondary markets.

The impact: The EGP has gained over 50 piasters against the greenback since 1 January and the USD continued its slide yesterday, dipping to EGP 47.12-47.22 at the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr. This marks the strongest the local currency has been in months, as offshore investors look to high-yield emerging markets amid cooling US interest rates, according to the sources.

By the numbers: Foreign investors channelled some USD 1.2 bn toward local debt since the beginning of the year, a government source tells EnterpriseAM. Total foreign holdings in EGP debt instruments exceeded USD 40 bn last December.

It’s about a lot more than the exchange rate: High demand is forcing yields down, putting the government on track to drive the average yield on public debt down toward the target 17% mark in efforts to slash the cost of debt servicing. Sources tell us that foreign investors are now shifting appetite toward longer-dated instruments instead of the traditional 3-6 month plays, as they gear up for the Central Bank to begin a more aggressive easing cycle later this year.

Watch this space

ENERGY — Egypt is thinking about walking away from its oil price hedging program starting next fiscal year, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. The move marks a significant shift in how the state manages its exposure to global energy markets, moving away from expensive bank-led ins. contracts in favor of direct supply agreements.

For years, Egypt has tapped international banks to protect it against spikes in oil prices, but now, this ins. premium is no longer worth it, our source tells us. Last fiscal year, the Finance Ministry paid some USD 84.5 mn to hedge 55 mn barrels, but global prices stayed below the contract’s strike price. Furthermore, the consensus is that oil prices will continue to fall moving forward — with Brent crude averaging USD 61.27 a barrel in 2026, according to a recent Reuters poll.

All the factors point to a relatively stable oil market for the months to come: “First, OPEC+ has been increasing production over the last year or two … this has resulted in an estimated production surplus of approximately 1 to 1.5 mn barrels per day,” Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena tells EnterpriseAM. On top of that, the potential return of Venezuelan crude to global markets and Saudi Arabia possessing the capacity to increase production by up to 2 mn barrels a day without additional heavy investment also “suggest that global oil prices will, at the very least, remain stable throughout 2026, if not decrease.”

REAL ESTATE — The National Investment Bank (NIB) will soon ink an agreement with an Emirati investor to develop a 642-feddan mixed-use tourism and urban project in the North Coast’s Jefaira, a bank official tells EnterpriseAM. The project — located near Ras El Hekma — is expected to generate EGP 275 bn in revenues over its lifespan. NIB acquired this specific plot in 2023 as part of a debt settlement with a state entity, according to the source.

The North Coast is no longer just a summer getaway; it has become a top destination for large-scale foreign investment. Over the past couple of years, we saw the government ink the landmark USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement with ADQ and the USD 29.7 bn agreement with Qatari Diar to set up a project in Alam El Roum. NIB plans to use this agreement as a template to monetize its broader real estate portfolio through similar partnerships or outright sales to domestic and international developers.

INVESTMENT — Syria is open for business, and Egyptian companies are at the front of the line, Syrian President Ahmed Al Sharaa told a Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce delegation in Damascus (watch, runtime; 11:16). “Syria possesses great expertise, but it has suffered significant damage over the past 14-15 years. It now needs the cooperation of the entire region to rebuild itself,” he said in his pitch to the Egyptian delegation.

“While it is true there is great ruin and destruction in Syria, at the same time, every bit of destruction is an investment opportunity,” he said, arguing that “Egyptian companies should be among the first to contribute to the reconstruction of Syria.”

And much like Egypt, “Syria is changing its policies significantly by opening the floor for the private sector over the public sector,” Al Sharaa added. The Syrian head of state pointed to agriculture, textiles, and other industries as areas of potential cooperation, pledging that “the Economy and Foreign Trade Ministry and all concerned parties, including Syrian businessmen, will be at your service for any aid or successful investments you bring to Syria.”

The road to 2030

The Madbouly government sees the economy growing at a 7.5% clip in 2030, up from previous estimates of 7%, according to the Planning and International Cooperation Ministry’s revised National Narrative forDevelopment (pdf) released earlier this week.

In the driver’s seat: The government wants to see the private sector account for 72% of total investment by 2030. To reach this target private investment will need to nearly triple in real terms over the next five years.

Why this matters: This is the most aggressive signaling yet of the state’s intent to retreat from the driver’s seat. For the business community, this means the government isn’t just encouraging the private sector — it is structurally dependent on it to meet its growth target.

More ambitious targets for 2030. The state wants to reach USD 24.6 bn in annual FDI and USD 145 bn in total exports by 2030, which requires an unprecedented influx of foreign capital. To get there, the narrative leans heavily on non-traditional partners, specifically prioritizing the Africa corridor and Brics’ New Development Bank as alternative funding taps.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the MENA-IndiaCorridor?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

Meta has a new president and she’s Egyptian-American

An Egyptian-American is now one of the most senior leaders of Meta: Dina Powell McCormick has been named president and vice-chair of Meta, where she’s going to oversee the social media giant’s investment in AI infrastructure, including the buildout of “hundreds of GW” of data centers. Powell, a 16-year veteran and former partner at Goldman Sachs who also served in the George W Bush administration and was deputy national security advisor to Donald Trump in his first administration, was born Dina Habibi in Cairo. She was already a board member at Meta. Her family moved to the US when she was a child, settling in Texas.

Data point

54.7% — that’s the y-o-y increase in auto sales for November, while monthly growth was a more modest 3.2%, according to figures from the Automotive Marketing Information Council (Amic) seen by EnterpriseAM. Vehicle sales for the month stood at 16.8k units as buyers returned to the market amid falling auto prices and a more stable EGP.

The big story abroad

The escalation of US President Donald Trump’s fight against US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell via a criminal probe has drawn pushback from Republican senators as well as former Central Bank governors, as the move threatens to backfire and lead to wider support of the Fed chair. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican on the Banking Committee, which vets Fed nominees, vowed to oppose any Trump nominees to the Fed until the matter is resolved, while several other senators have spoken out against threats to the Fed’s independence.

Some analysts have also said the move will likely push Powell to stay on the Board of Governors, where his term ends in 2028, in defiance and in order to protect the Fed’s independence.

Meanwhile, former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan wrote a statement denouncing the move, saying:” This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions, with highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of their economies more broadly.”

Even US Treasury Secretary ‍Scott Bessent told Trump on Sunday that the investigation “made a mess” and could be bad for financial markets, Axios reported on Monday, citing two sources.

Markets have so far shrugged off the drama, with Wall Street notching record highs, while yields on US 10-year notes and gold prices surged before steadying slightly, and the USD fell.

^^The must-read on the topic: Trump administration probe of Fed’s Powell sparks pushback

If that wasn’t enough drama for Trump, he has also threatened credit card issuers that charge high interest rates, calling for a 10% cap, and threatened a 25% tariff on countries that “do business” with Iran. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has also said the US is “unafraid to use military force” with Iran, echoing statements made against Greenland earlier last week.

Meanwhile, other business headlines getting attention:

• Paramount Skydance has now sued Warner Bros for more information on Netflix’s takeover bid after Warner Bros’ board rejected its Gulf-backed bid last week. (Reuters)
• Apple will use Google’s Gemini for its revamped Siri in a major vote of confidence for Google in the ongoing AI race. The agreement prompted a 1% rise in Google owner Alphabet, pushing its market cap past the USD 4 tn mark. (Bloomberg)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at the future of the green hydrogen industry in Egypt as regulatory delays stall international demand.