Highlights from the IMF’s fourth loan review

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Fourth floating regasification plant incoming

It’s one of those mixed-news days for folks who like to invest in — or watch — markets, and for a change, the ugly news is on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

THE GOOD- Retail investors flocked to Bonyan’s EGX offering, with the retail tranche of the IPO 33.7x oversubscribed at close yesterday, mirroring oversubscription by institutions earlier this week, a source close to the transaction tells us. The company offered 20-21.9% of its shares. The real estate investment firm is expected to make its EGX debut next Tuesday, 22 July, the source said.

Bonyan priced its IPO at the lower end of its range — EGP 4.96 per share, suggesting plenty of upside for buyers given the independent financial advisor said a fair value looks more like EGP 7.52.

ADVISORS- CI Capital and Arqaam Capital are quarterbacking the transaction, while Mubasher is the offering agent. Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy are serving as counsel, Baker Tilly did duties as independent financial advisor, and PwC is the auditor of record.

THE UGLY- Donald Trump rattled markets and sent the greenback down nearly 1% for a time yesterday as he stepped up his campaign against Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. US media reported that the US president had earlier this week brandished a letter firing Powell and asked the lawmakers he was meeting with whether he should send it.

BACKGROUND- Trump has waged a blunt campaign against Powell for months now, pressuring him to cut interest rates and suggesting he’s open to firing Powell if the chairman doesn’t come to heel.

Where things stand now: “We’re not planning on doing anything,” Trump said overnight. “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud, and it’s possible there’s fraud.”

Wait, fraud? Powell? The guy’s a straight-shooter’s straight-shooter, but that hasn’t stopped Republicans from trying to trump-up (pun intended) charges against him. Trump’s winged monkeys are angling to use an over-budget, USD 2.5 bn project to renovate the Fed’s HQ against Powell.

WHY IT MATTERS- The news raised fresh doubts about whether the Fed would, under the next Trump-appointed Fed boss, continue to set monetary policy independent of political interference. It’s not a stretch to say the independence of the Fed is one of the cornerstones of the global financial system. An independent Fed can make politically unpopular decisions — to, say, control inflation — without pressure from elected officials seeking short-term gains in popularity. Over the long term, an independent Fed is better able to deliver price stability and drive economic growth — that’s fundamentally what preserves confidence in both US financial markets and the greenback: global investors know that (today, at least) monetary policy is being set for economic reasons, not political ones. Go deeper with the Wall Street Journal here.

Can Trump really fire Powell? Maybe. A law on the books since 1913 gives the president the power to fire the Fed chairman, but only for “cause” — and what constitutes “cause” is largely undefined.

We’re going to cross the Rubicon one sooner or later: Powell’s term is up in May 2026.

Go deeper: The news is all over global front pages this morning, with each of the following outlets running multiple stories and explainers: Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal.

PSA-

The good news / bad news rhythm continues with this morning’s public service announcements:

GOOD NEWS- We’re in for a four-day workweek: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly announced Thursday, 24 July as a holiday for the public sector in observance of the 23 July Revolution. We’ll be on the lookout for similar statements from the Labor Ministry, EGX, and central bank.

WEATHER- As has been the case every day this week, it’s another scorching hot day in Cairo, with a high of 39°C and a low of 28°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 33°C and a low of 23°C.

BAD NEWS- That’s a wrap on Lamees El Hadidi’s Kelma Akhira. One of the nation’s most influential talking heads will be departing from ON TV — her five-year run with United Media Services ended after both sides agreed not to renew their contract, the company said in a statement.

Where to next? El Hadidi gave no indication of where we can catch her next, but we’ll be paying extra attention to her socials in the weeks to come as we wait for an announcement.

Of all the nation’s talking heads, Lamees is the smartest (and most sympathetic to the private sector) on anything involving business and the economy. We’re reaching out to ask her what’s next and we’ll report back and soon as we’ve had a chat.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Fourth floating regasification plant incoming: US-based energy infrastructure company New Fortress Energy (NFE) has deployed the Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) following a five-year charter agreement with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS), according to a press release. The FRSU will join NFE’s Energos Eskimo in Damietta in August.

The more the merrier: Egypt’s two recently-acquired FSRUs began operations sequentially yesterday after their connection to the national grid was previously delayed.

ICYMI- The 450 mcf/d Energos Winter will be stationed at Damietta’s United Gas Derivatives Company berth and will bring Egypt’s total FSRU-based capacity to 2.7 bcf/d.

As more FSRUs make their way to Egypt, our reliance on diesel and gasoil has been climbing, with imports rising 65% yo-y to 370k bbl/d in the first half of July, Bloomberg reports citing data from analytics firm Vortexa. The current inflows have surpassed all previous monthly records dating back to 2016, underlining the country’s mounting energy pressures amid declining domestic gas output and limited LNG infrastructure.

ICYMI- The spike follows disruptions in regional natural gas supplies, notably the halt of pipeline deliveries from Israel, forcing us to rely more heavily on fuel oil and diesel to meet electricity needs during peak summer demand.

The market effect: The demand jump has pulled supplies from the Middle East and Russia toward the Mediterranean, reducing available volumes for Northwest Europe and intensifying the region’s existing diesel shortage, Vortexa senior market analyst Pamela Munger told Bloomberg.

#2- Wadico eyes shale production: The New Valley Mineral Resources and Oil Shale Company (Wadico) and global mining firm BCM Group signed an agreement for the country’s first oil shale exploration and production project, according to a statement. No financial details or timeline were disclosed. Wadico aims to introduce oil shale as a viable alternative energy source and support its use in power generation and cement production, the statement adds.

There is much potential: Geological studies have shown that the Quseir-Safaga region in Egypt’s Eastern Desert hosts the country’s largest oil shale reserve, with an estimated 9 bn tons of material. The deposits could yield some 4.5-5 bn barrels of crude oil.

PLUS- Wadico signed an MoU with Qalaa Holding’s mining arm Ascom and its subsidiary ASCOM Carbonate and Chemical Manufacturing (ACCM) to boost the value of Egypt’s sand kaolin resources. Under the MoU, Wadico will provide licensing and concession areas in Ras Ghareb, while Ascom will oversee geological and mining activities, and ACCM will handle the refining of the material at its Minya facilities.

#3- Cement prices fall 25%: Cement prices in Egypt have fallen by some 25% over the past month to around EGP 4k per ton, industry players told Asharq Business. The decline follows an agreement between manufacturers and the government to increase output in response to rising local and export demand. Prices could fall more as currently idle production lines are brought back online, head of the Cairo Chamber of Commerce’s building materials division Ahmed El Zeiny told Asharq. Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena told the news outlet that local prices could fall further to EGP 3.3-3.5k a ton.

This follows a government push to restart idle plants: In early July, the government gave cement producers a one-month deadline to resume production, with a nationwide inspection campaign to ensure compliance. Industry players have been facing supply cuts instated by the Egyptian Competition Authority since 2021, which were introduced to help them tackle low prices, dampened demand, and supply gut.

#4- Preparing industries for CBAM: The industry and planning ministries are working together to prepare the industrial sector for the EU’s incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — known by its acronym CBAM. The two sides are looking to launch a new national platform to channel concessional financing and international grants toward decarbonizing the private manufacturing industry, according to a statement. The platform will serve as a tool to coordinate with development partners to fund green industrial transformation projects, improve energy efficiency, and support clean production technologies in line with CBAM requirements.

To oversee it all: A joint technical committee will be formed to monitor the implementation of priority projects and ensure integration between government initiatives and international financing platforms.

REMEMBER- CBAM, which is set to fully go into effect starting 2026, could have a considerable impact on Egypt’s exports — particularly from the country’s notoriously energy-intensive steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizer industries. We have a dedicated story on how fertilizer, cement, steel, and aluminum exporters need to prepare for CBAM — check it out here.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel ramped up its bombing campaign in Syria yesterday, attacking the military headquarters in Damascus and hitting near the presidential palace in a major escalation. The attacks killed at least three people and injured more than 30.

The strikes came amid an intensification of violence in the southern city of Sweida in Syria between Druze militants, Bedouin groups, and Syrian security forces who were sent to quell the fighting.

The Syrian Interior Ministry announced a ceasefire later in the evening, while US Secretary of State Marc Rubio said in an X post that all parties have agreed on steps that will “bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end tonight.” Syrian government forces were already moving out of Sweida last night. Several Arab countries later welcomed the news and condemned Israel’s attacks on Damascus, including Egypt, the UAE, and Qatar.

The story is getting a lot of ink: Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Guardian | Wall Street Journal

Key takeaways from the IMF’s fourth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn loan program

The IMF sees Egypt facing a financing gap of USD 5.8 bn in FY 2025-26, compared to USD 11.4 bn in FY 2024-25, the IMF said in its country staff report (pdf) for the fourth review of our USD 8 bn loan program. The figure is the fund’s projection for our financing gap after accounting for disbursals from the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) as bridging part of the gap. Here are the takeaways from the report:

The government has secured financing commitments for the next 12 months from international partners, which, together with other sources of revenue, will completely close the country’s financing gap, according to the report. This includes financing related to the sale of “development rights or direct real estate sales to external partners of at least USD 3 bn,” the IMF noted. Arab countries have also provided “assurances” they will maintain their deposits — collectively worth USD 18.3 bn — at the Central Bank of Egypt until the end of our EFF arrangement in October 2026, unless they are used for the purchase of equities, according to the report.

Our external financing needs are projected to reach USD 30.4 bn during this fiscal year, before declining to USD 27.5 bn in the FY 2026-27. This marks an increase from the IMF’s third review, when it projected our external financing needs at USD 25.9 bn for FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27.

IMF now sees Egypt reeling in USD 26.4 bn in external financing during FY 2025-26, compared to USD 24.1 bn projected in its third review. External financing projections for the next fiscal year were revised down to USD 25.9 bn, down from USD 26.0 bn in the third review.

Net FDI will be the biggest contributor among external financing sources, which the IMF expects to reach USD 15.6 bn during the current fiscal year, before inching up to USD 16.9 bn during 2026-27. Both projections have been revised upwards from the IMF’s previous review. The fund estimates that net FDI inflows recorded USD 13.2 bn in FY 2024-25, up from USD 10.8 bn in the third review. Portfolio investments, meanwhile, are anticipated to record USD 7.3 bn in the current fiscal year before falling to USD 5.0 bn in FY 2026-27.

We’re targeting USD 3 bn in asset sales this fiscal year: The government expects to receive USD 3 bn in inflows from asset sales during the current fiscal year, up from USD 600 mn last fiscal year. For FY 2026-27, the figure is expected to hit USD 2.1 bn, which is higher than those presented at the third review. This ramp-up aims to account for the shortfalls in both FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25, “to maintain the overall divestment envelope the authorities agreed at program approval,” the IMF noted.

Our sources are a little more optimistic: A government source told us earlier this week that the government aims to drum up USD 5-6 bn in fresh investments by offering stakes in six companies — including Banque du Caire, Safi, and Wataneya — on the EGX before 1Q 2026.

THE MACRO PICTURE-

GDP growth outlook: Egypt’s real GDP is expected to grow by 4.1% during this fiscal year, before accelerating to 4.6% growth in 2026-27, the IMF noted. The fund seems slightly less optimistic than the Madbouly government, which sees the economy growing 4.5% in FY 2025-26, before rising further to 5.0% in FY 2026-27.

Inflation outlook: The IMF sees inflation in Egypt reaching 15.3% on average during FY 2025-26, before cooling down to 10.7% on average in the upcoming fiscal year.

The targeted primary surplus for the current fiscal year has been revised down to 4% of GDP, which is 0.5% of GDP less than initially committed in the program. However, for FY 2026-27, the primary surplus is projected to increase to 5% of GDP, bringing it in line with prior program commitments.

External debt forecasts: Egypt’s external debt is projected to record 46.6% of GDP, reaching USD 180.6 bn during FY 2025-26, before falling to 43.3% of GDP, hitting USD 186.6 bn in FY 2026-27. Our external debt service is expected to register USD 46.6 bn during the current fiscal year, before dropping to USD 45 bn in the upcoming fiscal year.

OTHER TAKEAWAYS-

Suez Canal receipts are expected to reach USD 6.3 bn in the current fiscal year, before recovering to USD 8.2 bn in FY 2026-27, bringing them back to roughly the same levels recorded during FY 2022-2023 before the disruptions in the Red Sea since December 2023, reducing foreign exchange inflows from the vital waterway by USD 6 bn in 2024.

Tourism revenues are also expected to recover during the current fiscal year, reaching USD 17.1 bn, before jumping to USD 19.2 bn in the FY 2026-27.

On the monetary policy front, the IMF reiterated that we still need to maintain a liberalized and flexible exchange rate system. “Egypt is exposed to fundamental shocks, such as commodity price and productivity shocks, which require the use of the exchange rate as a shock absorber,” the IMF noted. “The limited variability in the exchange rate despite the numerous shocks that have impacted Egypt warrants further analysis, including on interbank market dynamics to ensure that the reform is sustained,” the IMF wrote, adding that “the perceived stability of the exchange rate is a source of risk in the near term, particularly with

respect to its impact on portfolio flows.”

WHAT’S NEXT- The IMF is set to hold its combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement on 15 September, it noted in its report. Earlier this month, the IMF decided to combine the fifth and sixth reviews, stating that “more time is needed” to make progress on the state withdrawing itself from the economy and the broader reform agenda. The seventh review is scheduled for 15 March, 2026, and the eighth review is set for 15 September, 2026.

Egypt’s debt management strategy expected by year-end, IMF says

We can expect to see an updated medium-term debt management strategy before the year is out, which will detail an annually updated multi-year borrowing strategy, guided by a portfolio cost and risk management framework, the IMF said in its country staff report (pdf) for the fourth review of our USD 8 bn loan program. This will also come alongside debt portfolio risk tolerance thresholds and operational targets, the IMF noted. Meanwhile, the strategy will encompass foreign and domestic debt, going through all instruments and financing sources.

REFRESHER- A senior government source told us earlier this week that the new public debt strategy for 2025-2030 could be released before the current quarter wraps. The strategy, which will include social and sustainability bond issuances, was set to be rolled out at the beginning of this year. However, it was postponed due to “disruptions in the interest rates market and difficulty predicting the repercussions of previous [geopolitical] tensions on the bond market,” the source told us at that time.

Reforms on the way: As part of the plan, we’re committing to implementing “comprehensive reforms along key structural and operational pillars” to improve our overall public debt management. Among the reforms to expect moving forward is the creation of a unified Debt Management Office (DMO), along with broadening the domestic debt market through the introduction of new debt instruments, including retail bonds.

The government is aiming to launch a retail bonds market this year, a senior government source told us previously. This move will allow individuals, for the first time, the option of purchasing government debt instruments and reduce the government’s debt service payments. The move is pending ongoing amendments to the system governing primary traders.

Potential side effects: These reforms may lead to a higher interest cost in the short term “in favor of medium-term capital markets savings,” the IMF said.

Improved debt reporting: “The authorities plan to prepare and publish general government debt statistical bulletins and/or reports on a recurring (quarterly), timely, comprehensive basis covering all aspects of debt and borrowing starting with a first publication focused on central government debt in April 2025, with expanded scope in November 2025 onwards,” the IMF’s report read. The Finance Ministry’s commitment to improving its debt reporting will require incorporating data on domestic financing instruments — such as auction results, private placements and overdraft borrowing — into central and general government in the current debt reporting structure, according to the IMF.

What does Egypt aim to achieve from the debt management strategy? Reducing the gross financing needs (GFN) through gradually extending the issuance maturity of domestic debt through auctions. Although Egypt just missed its end-of-September indicative target, it has steadily improved “the yearly cumulative average time to maturity at issuance of government securities from 0.56 years in June 2024 to 0.84 years in September 2024,” the IMF noted.

Public debt average maturity hit 1.8 years by the end of May 2025, according to our sources. This was primarily due to strong investor appetite for long-term debt instruments, a trend supported by CBE’s move to put interest rates downward, our sources noted.

Could this fast-track our return to the JPMorgan bond index? The move to extend the maturity of public debt instruments could accelerate Egypt’s return to JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, our sources told us before, a target the government hopes to hit by 2026. Egypt is currently seeing significant capital inflows, making our public debt market exceptionally attractive to foreign investors due to very appealing interest rates, we were told before.

The draft public debt document will establish a practical framework for debt issuances over five years, a government source told EnterpriseAM yesterday, given that there will be a quantitative breakdown of issuances for bonds, treasury bills and green bonds for the five-year period. The final draft may be subject to review by the IMF before its release, the source added.

Teda Egypt to invest USD 100 mn to develop infrastructure on a plot in the Sokhna Industrial Zone

Teda Egypt will invest USD 100 mn to develop infrastructure on a 2.9 sq km industrial plot in the Sokhna Industrial Zone in partnership with the Main Development Company (MDC), according to a statement.

The expansion — which brings Teda’s total land holding in the industrial zone to nearly 10 sq km — is meant to help localize specific industries within the zone and attract more Chinese manufacturers seeking access to regional and global markets, SCZone head Walid Gamal El Din said. Teda Egypt is nearing completion of its previously allocated 7.3 sqm Teda zone, according to the statement.

Chinese investors ❤️ SCZone: SCZone attracted over USD 4 bn in Chinese investments in the past three years, Gamal El Din said. Recent additions include Sunrev Solar’s USD 200 mn solar power component production complex and Comfily Hong Kong’s USD 20 mn bag and luggage factory. This comes as Egypt targets USD 16 bn in total Chinese investment over the next four years.

Officials pitch Egypt’s next phase of reform to UK investors at LSE Egypt Day

Pitching our economic reform story to UK investors during Egypt Day: Senior government officials met with UK-based investors and business leaders in London yesterday during Egypt Day at the London Stock Exchange in a bid to boost investor confidence and promote recent reforms. The three-day business mission — organized by the British Egyptian Business Association — is happening under the theme Egypt’s New Era: Investment Opportunities.

WHO’S IN THE ROOM- The delegation included Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk, CBE Deputy Governor Rami Aboul Naga, Deputy Investment Minister Ghada Nour, Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) Head Mohamed Farid, Sovereign Fund of Egypt Acting CEO Noha Khalil, among other senior officials, according to a FRA statement. The officials will be spending their time in London meeting with UK business leaders and investors to present Egypt’s updated regulatory, investment, and macro frameworks.

This is the story they’re telling: The event comes as Egyptian officials work to court fresh foreign inflows and spotlight positive signals in the local market — a growing pipeline of offerings on the EGX, strong appetite for Egyptian debt, and a drumbeat of investment from multinationals and other international players. Officials are eyeing a new privatization wave that could bring in USD 5–6 bn, with Banque du Caire, Safi, and Wataniya among the potential offerings.

Pitching Egypt’s next phase of reform: The delegation’s agenda focused on outlining the government’s updated reform program — including monetary and fiscal policies, private sector empowerment, and support to boost production, industry, and exports.

Kouchouk pitches long-term partnerships + policy credibility: Kouchouk rang the LSE bell to kick off the day’s trading and described the event as “a powerful opportunity for transparent dialogue and building long-term strategic partnerships based on clarity and trust.”

Farid touts regulatory upgrades to boost investor trust: Farid stressed the FRA’s commitment to improving Egypt’s non-banking financial sector. “Credibility starts with local investor trust,” Farid said, pointing to efforts to simplify processes, protect investor rights, digitize services, and launch new financial products.

ON THE SIDELINES- Foreign investor interest in Egypt is picking up as global trade dynamics shift and Egypt positions itself as a regional hub, our friend Todd Wilcox, deputy chairman and CEO at HSBC Bank Egypt told Asharq Business (w atch, runtime : 2:22) on the sidelines of Egypt Day. “We’re seeing good liquidity, a lot of multinationals and investors with interest in Egypt,” Wilcox said, noting the country’s large, young population and strategic geographic positioning as key draws. “Egypt is stepping up onto the world stage at a time where trade routes are changing,” he added.

British players are interested: “We had a group of 20 British companies come to visit us, [in a trip] organized by the Egyptian-British Chamber of Commerce a month ago,” Wilcox said, adding they were all interested in the local market and that many of those agreements are now moving forward.

HSBC believes the EGP to be stable at this stage, but flagged that it “seems to be floating with a specific band.” He also highlighted that “the currency was surprisingly resilient” during the Iranian-Israeli tit-for-tat a few weeks ago. He added that inflation is cooling down and interest rates could follow, with the lender penciling in “another 200–300 bps cut over the next year.”

Diversity is buffing up the country’s economy: “There is no one sector that dominates — it’s really a diverse and well-placed economy,” Wilcox said. He singled out alternative energy and EVs as areas of growing momentum, alongside manufacturing, textile, automotive, home appliances, healthcare, and education.

Talabat launches its largest distribution center in MENA in Yanmu East Logistics Park

Talabat’s grocery and retail arm Talabat Mart established a 22.4k sqm distribution center — its largest in the MENA region — in Yanmu East Logistics Park, according to a press release (pdf). The facility — developed by our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities, alongside AP Moller Capital and Agility — will distribute up to 1.6 mn items daily and over 48 mn items per month to its distribution network — which is expected to comprise more than 60 dark stores by the end of 2025.

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Leading in green: Yanmu East Logistics Park — a JV between Hassan Allam Utilities and Kuwait’s Agility Logistics Park — secured EDGE Advanced certification for its eco-friendly, sustainable warehousing, according to a separate press release published this month. Three of the park’s warehouses have achieved the certification with savings of 49% in energy, 53% in water, and 59% in carbon emissions.

The park’s latest tenants: Ibnsina Pharma secured a lease last December for 11k sqm of warehousing space in Yanmu East Logistics Park. This came weeks after Haier committed to leasing 11k sqm for a warehouse at Yanmu.

Talabat’s on retail growth spree: Talabat has been on an expansion spree in the region, which saw the company recently acquire on-demand grocery delivery marketplace Instashop from parent company Delivery Hero in a transaction valued at USD 32 mn in March. The company also reported robust returns for 1Q 2025, recording a 24% y-o-y rise in its adjusted income to USD 99 mn. The bottomline surge was largely driven by the company’s grocery and retail segments — spearheaded by Talabat Mart and Instashop, both contributing one third of gross merchandise value.

Nile Plastic Recycling is investing USD 15 mn in Sokhna expansion

Nile Plastic Recycling is investing an additional USD 15 mn to expand its polyethylene terephthalate (PET) recycling facility in the Sokhna Industrial Zone, according to a statement. Under a contract signed with industrial developer Main Development Company (MDC), the recycling firm plans to set up a 10k sqm annex focused on producing food-grade recycled PET.

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More capacity, more exports: The expansion will increase the company’s recycling capacity by 20k tons a year, with 70% of output earmarked for export markets. It will create around 500 direct jobs. The facility will come online following the completion of the project’s first phase.

REMEMBER- Nile Plastic Recycling inked an agreement with MDC back in November to establish a PET plastic recycling facility in the Sokhna Industrial Zone with an initial investment of USD 20 mn. The plant is set to begin operations in 1H 2026.

Three projects secure golden licenses from the Madbouly cabinet

Three projects secure golden licenses: The Madbouly government approved decisions granting three projects golden licenses during its weekly meeting yesterday. The projects are:

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

#1- The USD 58 mn freezone for linen and textile production in Sadat City — dubbed Kingdom Linen. The facility will create 500 jobs and is scheduled for completion by January 2027. The zone will export 100% of its annual capacity — 3.8k tons of linen yarn output — and reach a 30% local content ratio within three years.

REMEMBER- The cabinet approved the decision to set up the freezone back in October 2024.

#2- Masdar, Infinity’s 200 MW wind farm: Our friends at renewables firm Infinity Power and Emirati state-run renewables giant Masdar secured a golden license for their 200 MW wind farm in Ras Ghareb. Once it starts feeding the national grid in May 2027, the farm will help the Madbouly government save an estimated 175 mn cubic meters of natural gas annually. It’s expected to create around 2k jobs during the construction and operational phases.

ICYMI- The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company will purchase the power produced, under a trilateral purchase power agreement inked last year. The project will cost some USD 216.7 mn.

#3- Agro-industrial complex from Alamir gets the go-ahead: Local agriculture player Alamir Group also received a golden license for its planned complex in Sadat City. The company will establish multiple factories to process, package, and export fruits, vegetables, tomato paste, and other agro-products. The project will export more than 70% of its output while relying on 80-90% locally sourced raw materials. Scheduled to begin operations in October 2027, the facility is expected to provide 400 jobs and deepen Egypt’s agricultural value chain.

FRA greenlights Valu’s EGP 10 bn securitization program

DEBT WATCH-

#1- Valu gets green light for EGP 10 bn securitization program: The Financial Regulatory Authority approved Valu’s seventh securitized bond program, allowing the company to issue up to EGP 10 bn in bonds backed by portfolios worth EGP 13 bn, according to a filing (pdf) to the bourse. The issuance will be rolled out over two years through up to nine issuances. Just last month, the newly-listed company closed an EGP 859 mn securitization issuance.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

#2- Tasaheel lands EGP 1 bn loan: MNT-Halan’s microfinance arm Tasaheel secured EGP 1 bn from the National Bank of Egypt to on-lend, according to a press release (pdf). The funding will help the firm expand microfinance lending across governorates, supporting entrepreneurship and helping build sustainable income-generating projects.

REGULATIONS-

A slew of new FRA regulations incoming: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) is preparing to issue a wave of new regulations in the coming period, FRA head Mohamed Farid told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 4:56). The updates include platform requirements for crowdfunding and real estate investment fund platforms, as well as unified solvency standards across non-bank finance segments based on Basel III. “We found varying solvency criteria in consumer finance, microfinance, and mortgage finance. So we are working to unify them using globally recognized Basel III benchmarks,” Farid said, adding that this would “raise the financial and professional solvency” of licensed companies and improve transparency for investors.

Stricter capital rules coming for insurers: Farid also said that the FRA will soon roll out new financial and governance standards for ins. firms, including higher capital adequacy. The move comes ahead of a planned shift to international capital adequacy standards — eventually the EU’s Solvency II, which is on the FRA’s roadmap for rollout within two-three years.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

CI Capital Asset Management closed the country’s inaugural ESG equity fund, it said in a press release (pdf). The subscription was 4x oversubscribed, signaling strong investor appetite for ESG-linked investments. The fund will invest in the stocks of the 30 best-performing listed companies on the EGX, the statement said. Retail and institutional investors will be able to execute daily subscription and redemption orders starting this month through local banks and CI Capital’s fixed income brokerage arm, the asset manager said without disclosing a specific start date or name-checking the receiving banks.

TOURISM-

The Tourism Ministry and regional travel platform WEGO launched a joint digital campaign to promote Egypt as a destination in Arab markets, aiming to attract over 1 mn travelers and drive 500k bookings by June 2026, according to a ministry statement. The campaign will run targeted ads across YouTube, Google, cinemas, and malls during holidays and peak travel periods.

REMEMBER- Egypt has big tourism plans as it aims to increase the number of tourists from 15.7 mn last year to 30 mn tourists a year by 2030.

US Inflation accelerates to 2.7% in June, analysts point to tariffs

Headline US inflation climbed to 2.7% y-o-y in June, slightly exceeding the 2.6% forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The jump suggests that US tariffs are starting to leave their mark on the consumer price index (CPI). Meanwhile, core CPI was up 2.9% y-o-y.

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Tariffs are getting all the blame. Prices for goods exposed to tariffs — including toys and appliances — rose at the fastest rates seen in years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tariff impact is still modest, as businesses have likely absorbed a large portion of the costs so far, Cornell University Economics Professor Eswar Prasad told the Financial Times. This will likely change if Trump moves ahead with additional tariff threats, leading to higher costs passed to customers, Prasad says.

Global impact? Trump’s tariffs may impact consumers beyond the US market, as global brands are considering spreading costs across markets, Proxima Executive VP Simon Geale told the FT. Smart sourcing and cost savings strategies may not be enough to soften the impact of tariffs on US consumers if prices rise beyond 5%, Geale added.

Most trading partners opted for negotiating their way around the problem, with only China and Canada opting for retaliatory tariffs. Meanwhile, the EU steered clear from open confrontation with Trump, welcoming a backchannel opened by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, as well as adding military support for Ukraine to ongoing negotiations.

BUT- Appeasing can be a slippery slope: The EU Trade Commissioner cautioned that a 30% US tariff could halt transatlantic trade, leaving the bloc with “nothing to lose” and likely provoking retaliation. This creates a difficult strategic choice, as avoiding retaliation in the short term may lead to ceding long-term dominance of global supply chains to the US, head of global economy at Chatham House Creon Butler said.

US coffers are swelling in the meanwhile: Customs revenues soared to a record USD 64 bn in 2Q 2025, funneling an additional USD 47 bn into the US treasury compared to the same period last year.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the red this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei inching down 0.3% after trade figures showed Japanese exports fell for the second month straight. Wall Street futures are also indicating a lower opening ahead.

EGX30	33,474	-1.4% (YTD: +12.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 49.36	Sell 49.50
USD (CIB)	Buy 49.37	Sell 49.47
Interest rates (CBE)	24.00% deposit	25.00% lending
Tadawul	11,039	-0.5% (YTD: -8.3%)
ADX	10,176	+0.3% (YTD: +8.0%)
DFM	5,974	+1.0% (YTD: +15.8%)
S&P 500	6,264	+0.3% (YTD: +6.5%)
FTSE 100	8,927	-0.1% (YTD: +9.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,298	-1.1% (YTD: ؤ%)
Brent crude	USD 68.68	0.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.56	+1.1%
Gold	USD 3,355	+0.6%
BTC	USD 119,974	+2.1% (YTD: +28.3%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	879.72	0.0% (YTD: +13.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	145.49	-0.1% (YTD: +4.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.16	-1.3% (YTD: -1.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.4 bn (11.3% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 12.6% YTD.

In the green: Alexandria Mineral Oils (+2.1%), Sidpec (+2.0%), and Egypt Aluminum (+1.2%).

In the red: Credit Agricole (-3.3%), TMG Holding (-3.2%), and Fawry (-2.9%).

My Morning Routine: Basma Rady, Managing Director of Robin

Basma Rady, managing director of Robin: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Robin Managing Director Basma Rady (LinkedIn). Edited excerpts from our conversation:

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

I’m Basma Rady, the managing director of Robin. I joined Beltone Holding in June 2023 with a mandate to build a data science platform that serves Beltone, its portfolio companies, and the wider market. Before that, I was at the Central Bank of Egypt, where I founded and led the Data Science Hub — overseeing everything from setting the vision and mission to delivering projects that directly supported the governor, the Monetary Policy Committee, and the board. I also built the central bank’s first team of data scientists. Earlier in my career, I worked at Ernst & Young, first in New York and later in Dubai as a data science manager serving both public and private sector clients. I hold a master’s in operations research and information engineering from Cornell University. On the personal side, I’m the eldest of three — I have a younger brother and sister — and I’m married. I’m supported by a wonderful, large family.

Launching and managing Robin are now my main responsibilities. As a managing director, I’m responsible for everything from setting up the company and launching it into the market to selling to clients, ensuring delivery, managing a brilliant team, and making sure we’re delivering the right level of service and quality to the market. Right now, my day job is mostly focused on launching Robin and making sure all clients are aware of our services, how we add value, and how we can help them better serve their own customers. That’s my primary focus. Beyond that, I’m actively selling to clients and continuously building and managing a wonderful data science and analytics team.

Robin officially launched last week, but we’ve been working on it for over a year. In a post I wrote on LinkedIn titled Meet the Minds Behind Robin, I mentioned how proud I am of the team because they believed in the idea before it even had a name. The naming was a group effort — we came up with it together. The main goal of Robin is to serve clients with data science and AI services. We see a gap between the full potential of AI and data science and how companies are actually able to implement them. There’s a mismatch between what companies want to do and what they’re currently able to do — especially when it comes to building the right data foundation. That’s where Robin comes in, bridging that gap with real-world applications, ensuring data science and AI make a meaningful impact.

The name “Robin” comes from Batman and Robin — we’re the sidekick of the business. We help businesses fly. Robin is young, smart, approachable, and colorful. We don’t think data science and AI work in a vacuum — the real magic happens when smart data scientists work closely with the client and the business side to ensure impact. We design models and dashboards that are fully usable, address a business need, and are customized to each client. Our goal is to help companies unlock the trapped value in their data and turn it into a strategic asset — not just a byproduct of operations.

The most interesting trend in our industry right now is GenAI tools like ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Claude, Gemini, CoPilot, and others. These technologies automate tasks and generate content, and they’re really changing the game. At Robin, we spend a lot of time researching and experimenting with the latest tools so that when we recommend one to a client, it’s the right fit for the use case and cost-efficient. We’re actively building client-facing tools backed by GenAI, including content generation for applications and smart chatbots.

I don’t have a fixed morning routine. My schedule really depends on what’s needed from me that day. On a day when I have a 9am meeting in Smart Village, I’m up at 6am and out the door early. On days when I’m heading into the office at a more relaxed pace, I take things slower. During launch phases or intense work periods, I need to be on top of the news and market updates constantly. When I’m traveling, it’s a different rhythm altogether. I have read Improv Wisdom: Don’t Prepare, Just Show Up by Patricia Ryan Madson, which is about staying present and responding to what the moment asks of you, and that’s become my personal philosophy. I focus on what’s needed from me in the moment rather than rigid planning.

If there’s one constant in my mornings, it’s coffee. I never start my day without it. I also love spending quality time with my husband in the morning — that calm time with family is something I try to hold onto no matter how hectic the day ahead looks. I also always read EnterpriseAM in the morning as it’s reliable and gives me the information I need, right at the start of my day. I often check out the PM edition later in the day as well.

No two workdays are the same, especially while launching Robin. Broadly, my day involves talking to clients, explaining what we do, selling our services, and ensuring delivery. I also work closely with our team — planning, managing, staying up to date on what’s being developed, and making sure everything we produce has an impact.

There’s no secret to staying organized, it’s just a lot of themed to-do lists. I keep these digital to-do lists, update them regularly, and make sure they’re shared with my team. My current themes include launching Robin, sales and go-to-market, delivery of client projects, and hiring. I know they’ll evolve — in September we’ll be gearing up for our second AI hackathon, and by December, I’ll be focused on budgeting and planning for next year.

Looking ahead, the priority is for Robin to lead on data and AI across the region, not just in Egypt, but throughout MENA. I want to make sure that Robin is realizing its full potential and impact throughout the region.

When it comes to work-life balance, I don’t think of it as balance. I think of it as juggling. I got that from a book called Just Enough by Laura Nash and Howard Stevenson. Some balls you juggle in life are rubber, if you drop them, they bounce. Others, like family, are glass, they shatter if dropped. I try to give full focus to whatever’s in my hand at the moment, whether I’m in a client meeting or with family at home. That’s how I try to manage it — by being fully present.

To relax and switch off, I like to have a hot drink and a conversation with my mom, my sister, or my husband. I’m not big on watching TV or movies. When the day is done, I enjoy a quiet evening with family, a good coffee, and sleep. On vacation, I really try to unplug. That’s when I’ll read a book or two, which is something I don’t usually have time for during busy work periods.

The best piece of advice I’ve ever received came from my late father, who was an orthopedic surgeon and professor. He taught me the value of lifelong learning. Even after decades of experience, he’d stay up the night before a surgery to study, review, and refresh — not because he didn’t know it, but because he believed in always being prepared. My passion for learning comes directly from him.

CALENDAR

JULY

16-18 July (Wednesday-Friday): Egypt’s New Era: Investment Opportunities: Business mission to the UK organized by The British Egyptian Business Association (Beba)

17 July (Thursday): Deadline to apply for 36 industrial units in phase three of Robbiki Leather City.

End-July 2025: Egypt and Jordan to connect fifth FSRU ‘Energos Force’ to Arab Gas Pipeline via Aqaba port.

Also happening this month:

The first operational trial of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line
Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein
China’s State Grid aims to finalize contracts for two solar projects.

AUGUST

7 August (Thursday): Finance Ministry to begin disbursement of 50% of exporters’ pre-June 2024 dues over a four-year plan.

28 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

Mid-August: Launch of electronic platform to register Old Rent Law tenants.

Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

Late-August: Deadline for cement factories to restart production.

SEPTEMBER

8-11 September (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes London Conference takes place in the British capital.

15 September (Monday): IMF to hold its combined fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24-27 September (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

The Egyptian-Moroccan Business Council to send a delegation of 23 local companies to Rabat.

The Engineering Export Council of Egypt will ship a commercial delegation to Russia to ramp up exports to European markets.

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay.

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026.

OCTOBER

2 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

7 October (Tuesday): The 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

12-16 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Cairo.

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

NOVEMBER

16-19 November: Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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