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Here’s what to watch for as reports suggest we’re closing in on a USD 9 bn agreement with the IMF.

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

EGX30 in bull market territory

Good morning, friends. It’s a tense morning in Cairo after the EGP hit 70 against the greenback. With the central bank set to meet tomorrow to discuss interest rates, speculation is rampant in the domestic and global press alike that we’re both edging toward devaluation and closing in on agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a larger assistance package.

We have the rundown on the state of play in this morning’s news well, below, along with a guide to the 10 things on which you’ll want to keep an eye whether on the road to a new agreement.

MEANWHILE- The EGX30 is now in bull market territory for 2024, with its year-to-date return rising to 21.9% after the index closed up 3.8% yesterday, according to market data. The index also surpassed the 30k point threshold for the first time in its history. The index has been on a months-long rally now as investors look to stocks as a hedge against high inflation and a weakening EGP.

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But what about the UAE? We’ve also got you covered with EnterpriseAM UAE.Subscribehere or you can head over to the website here.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates this evening following the end of its two-day policy meeting. We dive into analyst expectations and the rationale behind them in this morning’s Planet Finance.

WAR WATCH-

One step forward, two steps backward: Israel and Hamas appear to be on completely different pages regarding the proposed agreement that would see Israel halt fighting in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing hostages. Hamas showed openness to the agreement, with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh saying that the group is studying it and that the group would consider any agreement that would see the “comprehensive cessation” of attacks on Gaza, “serious prisoner exchange,” and the IDF troops withdrawing from the enclave. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected any agreement that stipulates withdrawing Israeli troops from Gaza or releasing Palestinian prisoners.

What’s next? A Hamas delegation is reportedly landing in Cairo today to discuss the proposal with Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, Times of Israel wrote.

New details regarding the agreement: If implemented, the ceasefire agreement will see Israel release 100-250 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons in exchange for each Israeli held hostage by Hamas. The first phase of the agreement includes a 45-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of 35 hostages. Mediators are also hopeful that agreement will open the door for discussions regarding a permanent ceasefire.

We saw this coming: The agreement is the product of negotiations held in Paris earlier this week between Kamel and a number of US, Israeli and Qatari leaders — including head of Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet Ronen Bar and CIA head William Burns.

The story is receiving a lot of attention: FT | Bloomberg | Associated Press | The Guardian.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Saudi Aramco drops plans to boost capacity, which would have pushed its production capacity to 13 mn barrels a day by 2027.

READ BETWEEN THE LINES- “It’s the clearest sign yet that the Kingdom is moderating its expectations of global oil demand growth in the coming years,” Vanda Insights’ Vandana Hari said in a Bloomberg report.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Elon Musk’s Neuralink implanted a brain chip into its first patient yesterday as part of the startup’s plan to enable mortals like us — with a special focus on those suffering from paralysis — to control machines with our thoughts. (The Guardian)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a look at Egypt’s real estate market, its performance over the past year, and what we can expect from it this year.

Escape to Somabay, where the sun-kissed shores await your arrival. Immerse yourself in the warmth of a perfect vacation, starting each day with the radiant embrace of the sun. Unwind, explore, and create unforgettable memories in this paradise by the sea.

2

ECONOMY

Reports suggest Egypt is closing in on a new, larger IMF package + devaluation. Here’s what to watch for.

Is an IMF package imminent? Cairo has been abuzz since midday yesterday with chatter that the Madbouly government is nearing a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

The press is reporting that an agreement in principle is in sight, but there’s no consensus on the size of the assistance program.

  • Talk show queen Lamees El Hadidy said last night the government is nearing an agreement that would take the package to USD 7-8 bn over three years, with USD 700 mn disbursed up front after two in-process reviews are wrapped up (watch, runtime: 11:14).
  • Al Hadath, the breaking news arm of Al Arabia, reported yesterday that there is agreement on a USD 7 bn program (watch, runtime: 6:02). Cairo24 picked up the blurb.
  • Al Shorouk, meanwhile, puts the value of the program at USD 6 bn, adding that Cabinet spokesman Mohamed El Homosany said the government is preparing to make a statement on the results of the talks with the IMF delegation.
  • Reuters quotes Daniel Leigh, a senior IMF official, as saying the first and second reviews of the fund’s initial USD 3 bn loan program could wrap up “in the coming weeks.”

Four sources with knowledge of the state of play with whom we spoke yesterday have told us that an agreement worth c. USD 9 bn is nearly over the finish line, though they cautioned that circumstances can change before a final agreement is reached, potentially revising the value of the program or extending the process by days or weeks. Separately, three well-placed sources put the value of the agreement at USD 6 bn.

What’s with the difference between the two figures? A larger program may only be possible if we go for a full float, not a managed devaluation. In the latter scenario, we would be looking at wrapping reviews of the USD 3 bn program already in place and then unlocking up to USD 3 bn more over an extended period of time. It remains unclear which scenario policymakers in Cairo will pursue.

In all cases, the value of the program would include the USD 3 bn the IMF had originally committed under a 46-month agreement back in late 2022. We have yet to draw any of that cash since an initial release of USD 347 mn. Under the terms of the agreement, the balance could only be unlocked tranche-by-tranche after reviews by the IMF of our progress on a range of reforms and other conditions.

What we know: An IMF delegation has been in Cairo for two weeks to work out an agreement. Their mission was due to wrap up yesterday, but the delegation is reportedly willing to extend its stay to put it over the finish line. The meetings have absorbed a massive percentage of the cabinet economic team’s bandwidth: There was no cabinet meeting last week, and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat was the only minister to make the trek to Davos for the World Economic Forum — a gathering typically attended by multiple cabinet members.

THE STATE OF PLAY ON THE EGP

The EGP hit record lows in the parallel and derivative markets yesterday as speculation about a possible float reached a fever pitch.

#1- The EGP was changing hands at 70.00 and beyond to the USD in the parallel market, while the official rate remains 30.95.

#2- Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards now put the EGP at 63.00 to the greenback, while GDR transactions yesterday that we’ve heard of imply a rate just north of 70.00.

Gold bug Naguib Sawiris poured fuel on the fire, saying on X that it’s time to devalue — and to use the parallel market rate as the starting point for discussion. “The right thing to do is to [set the official rate] at the black market price” and let it equilibrate from there, he said. “People will only sell [FX] in official channels if the two rates are equal.” Bloomberg used Sawiris’ posts as the hook on which to hang its story on the state of our FX crunch.

How to think about the gap between forwards and the parallel market. In a nutshell: Black market = our current mental state. Forwards = future direction of travel. Forwards often miss the mark, but the market for them is a lot more liquid — and vastly more transparent — than the parallel market. The parallel market is disproportionately influenced by the sentiment of individual sellers rather than by corporates making (comparatively) large purchases to cover L/Cs and transfers.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR-

Issues and questions you’ll want to keep an eye on when and if an agreement is announced:

#1- Is it a float or a managed devaluation? Dueling options on the table right now include (a) a move straight to a full float (see: Sawiris, Naguib, above) and (b) a more gradual process where the current is brought to a market-clearing rate in a series of more controlled auctions, possibly over an extended period of time. There’s no consensus in the press or among the people we’ve spoken with, though it seems we may be edging toward a managed or gradual process, Al Borsa writes. The language used by the central bank and the IMF to describe our FX exchange rate policy will be key.

#2- When does the shift to a flexible currency regime happen? Whether it’s a float or a managed devaluation, will the IMF require it happen first as a condition of getting to a staff-level agreement? Or will the central bank want to have cash in hand ahead of time to fight a possible overshoot?

In past devaluations, the central bank’s playbook has been to announce an early-morning interest rate decision (if it makes a move on rates at all) and then hold a series of auctions in the interbank market to allow a period of price discovery, posting new exchange rates at bank counters (online and IRL) nationwide in the process. The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can meet outside its regular schedule if it wishes to do so.

#3- What’s the EGP really worth? Yesterday’s parallel market rate in the EGP 68-70 range is one that we (and just about any economist you speak with) think is out of whack with the market’s fundamentals.

#4- The total value of the package matters, sure — but almost as important is how fast we get it. Officials have been talking about a package in the USD 9-12 bn range. Cabinet and Central Bank Governor Hassan Abdalla will want the maximum up-front commitment possible to get the gears of the economy unstuck fast. The IMF will want to retain substantial cash as a lever to ensure we push ahead with reforms. We’re told the government is hoping to get USD 3 bn in hand quickly.

#5- The length of the approval cycle. The signing of a staff-level agreement on its own doesn’t automatically unlock funds. The IMF’s executive board would have to sign off on the text. The board’s schedule is here — it has meetings booked through 7 February to discuss Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Chile. Egypt doesn’t yet appear on the agenda, but the board can add a meeting or change an agenda effectively at will.

#6- What does the conditionality look like? The IMF will demand we move to a flexible exchange rate policy, fast-track the sale of state assets, curb the state’s involvement in the economy, and slow down government spending, particularly on infrastructure projects. You can also expect social support spending to be a feature. Pundits will be watching closely to see what other conditions may be tacked on.

#7- What happens when the Central Bank of Egypt meets on Thursday? Only four of nine analysts we spoke with for our customary poll ahead of the MPC meeting expect the bank to leave interest rates on hold. Two see 150-200 basis point hikes, and three weren’t willing to make a call. All were speaking with no expectation that an IMF agreement would be announced ahead of time. If a pact with the IMF is imminent, a hold at Thursday’s meeting could mean only that the CBE is keeping its powder dry ahead of a major decision post-agreement.

#8- What language do government officials — from the cabinet table to Ayman Soliman’s Sovereign Fund of Egypt — use in discussing asset sales? Will they entertain the idea of selling specific assets below book value just to stimulate the market? One way to spur fresh FDI is to offer an attractive asset at a great price. Snap IPOs are also worth considering — the EGX climbed 70.5% in 2023 and is up 21.9% so far this year as investors look for assets into which to park liquidity amid soaring inflation.

#9- Will the IMF agree to reschedule some of the upward of USD 6 bn we owe it this year in repayments? Could the IMF serve as a catalyst for a swap of some of that debt for equity in companies or assets moving through the national asset sale program?

#10- What other channels will the central bank and the government use to add to their war chest? For example: Al Arabiya reports the CBE will sell USD 1 bn of one-year treasury bills next week. The broadcaster cited unnamed sources as backing the report.

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ECONOMY

IMF now sees Egypt’s economy growing at a 3.0% clip in the FY 2023-24

IMF slashes our growth outlook: The IMF has downgraded its fiscal year 2023-2024 growth forecast for Egypt to 3.0% from October’s projection of 3.6% in its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf). This continues a downward trend that has seen the IMF successively cutting Egypt’s FY 2023-24 outlook to 4.1% from 5.0% in July and then again to 3.6% from 4.1% a few months later.

This is in line with government expectations, whichsees the economy growing an estimated 3.0% in FY 2023-2024 according to latest forecasts.

But less optimistic than other international monitors: The World Bank and S&P both put our GDP growth at a more optimistic 3.5% for the current fiscal year.

Growth slowed more in FY 2022-2023: The Fund revised downwards its growth estimate for the last fiscal year to 3.8% from 4.2% previously. The economy grew at a 6.7% clip the year before.

The economy is expected to slightly rebound next fiscal year: The Fund now sees Egypt’s economy growing at a 4.7% clip in the FY 2024-2025, slightly below previous projections of 5.0%.

THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK-

IMF trims MENA outlook: The IMF lowered its MENA growth outlook for the year by 0.5 percentage points, now expecting regional growth to pick up to 2.9% in 2024 from 2.0% the year before. The Fund pointed to temporary oil cuts in Saudi Arabia as the main driver behind the slashed outlook.

It’s not looking good for Saudi Arabia: The Fund now sees the Kingdom’s economy to grow at a 2.7% clip for 2024, down 1.3 percentage points from October’s projections. The country’s GDP shrunk 1.1% last year in “one of its steepest contractions of the past two decades,” according to Bloomberg.

THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK-

On a global level, there’s slightly more optimism: The Fund revised upwards its 2024 global growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, thanks to the strength of the US economy and certain emerging markets, alongside fiscal support in China.

What about next year? The IMF left its 2025 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2%, well below the global growth average between 2000 and 2019 of 3.8%. The Fund sees high interest rates and fiscal support withdrawal weighing on economic growth.

Soft landing in sight? Global headline inflation is thought to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, as “the global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blogpost. “On the downside, new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks –– including continued attacks in the Red Sea –– and supply disruptions or more persistent underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions,” he cautioned.

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Coffee With

Coffee With: Mohammed Gad, CEO of Standard Chartered Egypt

A new bank is in town: British multinational bank Standard Chartered ’s newly formed local arm Standard Chartered Egypt has officially begun banking operations after getting the final go-ahead from the central bank, according to a statement (pdf) from the bank yesterday.

We sat down with the lender’s Egypt CEO Mohammed Gad to discuss why Egypt, why now, and what the bank is hoping to achieve in its first year here. Gad has more than 22 years of experience in the industry. He joined Standard Chartered in 2012 and has since held senior roles at the bank including, CEO of its operations in Qatar. Below are edited excerpts from our conversation:

Enterprise: Why Egypt? And why now?

Mohammed Gad: Egypt is a very important market for our global network. From Standard Chartered’s global and MENA perspective, Egypt is an important piece of the puzzle. We need to be on the ground in Egypt, supporting our clients. Most of our multinational clients banking with Standard Chartered around the globe are present in Egypt.

We're not new to Egypt, we’ve had a representative office since 2007. But now, we’ve upgraded our presence in Egypt to a full-fledged commercial bank. Egypt has the third-largest GDP in the Arab world, with very dynamic demographics and a youthful population, so there's a lot of growth potential here.

And now Egypt has become a part of Brics, and we have had a strong footprint in most of the Bricscountries for decades. It’s more meaningful for us to have a proper presence in Egypt because of the investment and trade opportunities from being in Brics that will now be open to Egypt.

E: What will happen now that Standard Chartered has become a fully licensed commercial bank?

MG: Now we are licensed by the Central Bank of Egypt as a branch of a foreign bank, we will be a branch of Standard Chartered in Egypt. The focus will be wholesale banking, so we'll focus on corporate and investment banking. We don't have a retail presence now, but in the long term we plan to penetrate the retail market.

Being part of a full franchise means that we can support all our clients in trade, the financial markets, and help them hedge risk, whether it's commodity prices or FX rates. We can also support them withproject finance, export credit agencies, and what we call structured export finance — to help our clients to mobilize funding from multilateral organizations and development banks.

E: But what about wealth clients?

MG: We have our wealth centers across the globe, so if there is a wealth client in Egypt or a private banking client in Egypt, we can definitely give them the full support and a fully fledged service through our global network, including Singapore, Hong Kong, UAE, New York, and London.

E: Why a new license? Why not enter via acquisition?

MG: We thought it was better to build our own franchise with our own systems, policies and procedures.We knew it would be more difficult to build a bank from scratch, but we have a very focused mandate.You're building your own infrastructure, technology infrastructure, your policies, and procedures, all from scratch. But, it's a cleaner way to start.

E: How was it working with the central bank?

MG: The Central Bank of Egypt has been a great supporter of Standard Chartered, and now is a good time to thank the leadership and the whole team at the CBE. We dealt with a lot of stakeholders in the central bank and all of them have given us immense support. They were very keen to clear any hurdles or roadblocks for Standard Chartered and I don't think we would have been successful in launching without the support and the guidance we got from the central bank.

E: Where do you see your competitive edge?

MG: Our edge comes from our ability to mobilize the funding needed through the multilaterals and multilateral development banks to support any capex, infrastructure, utilities, or greenfield project finance for the Egyptian government and its affiliates. Also, our ability to mobilize and facilitate the flow of investment, trade, and capital to support the economic aspirations of Egypt.

And we are a trade bank at heart, so we'll support our clients to help them better manage their money and to help them import or export.

We have our own industry experts as well, or what we call industry bankers, who are focused and specialized in power, utilities, and infrastructure — and this includes everything from aviation to oil and gas. These dedicated professionals don't just provide our clients with general financing solutions, they can also give advice on an industry level.

E: What industries and types of clients are you targeting?

MG: In terms of industries, we are sector agnostic. We are focusing on four client segments. We’re focussing on the private sector, government-related entities, financial institutions, and multinational companies operating in Egypt — and we hope to make a positive change by supporting them.

E: Are you going to focus more on project finance or trade finance?

MG: It will be a balancing act between long-term project finance and short-term trade finance, but by nature Egypt is a net importer, so trade finance is very important for any bank operating here.

E: We are here at the head office and your first branch at Cairo Festival City, when and where will we see new branches?

MG: We're going to start with just the Cairo Festival City branch, because we're really trying to be as digital as we can be. It's not about having a full network of branches, but making sure our clients are properly connected digitally to process transactions. We have our own ebanking platform called S2B — or ‘straight to bank’ — which provides a seamless process that is more convenient and secure for our clients. Digital transformation is at the heart and DNA of Standard Chartered, but that said, we plan to add another three or four corporate branches.

E: Looking down the road, what says you’ve had a good first year?

MG: Kicking off operations in Egypt is already a great milestone for us,it has been a long journey. One year from now, I think success will be to make sure that we are very well positioned with the four client segments I mentioned earlier.

As a multi-product bank, we want to make sure that we are supporting our clients on the financial side and on the financial advisory side, to help them manage their balance sheet and capital structure, and also manage their risks. We are more than just a transactional bank, we are looking to build long term and meaningful relationships with our clients.

E: How are you going to get off to a good start amid the foreign currency crisis, high interest rates, and trade hurdles?

MG: There is always a silver lining.I think that for us as an international bank, the first step is to support our multinational corporate clients operating in Egypt. Most of them are very keen to bank with Standard Chartered in Egypt.

There’s no perfect time to enter a country. If you look at what is happening geopolitically and what’s happening in the global economy, you could also say that this applies to any emerging market. We are not looking at Egypt in the next one or two years, we are looking at Egypt fifty years from today. We have a very strategic view on Egypt and we are here to stay. We have been in the Middle East for more than a hundred years, so we have seen a lot of economic cycles, ups and downs, and we still stay committed to our clients across our global network.

E: Do you have portfolio targets for the first year?

MG: To be honest, I am not really worried about numbers. Our key focus is to make sure our technological infrastructure is ready and that as many products as we can get ready are available for our clients in Egypt.

E: And what are your hiring plans for this year?

MG: If you ask me one lesson learned from all the projects we’ve done, it is that the key success factor is the human capital that we have at Standard Chartered. We hired the management team here and we will continue to build up the team between now and next year.

Technical expertise, know-how, and exposure are very critical, but equally important is people’s character, mindset, attitude, and resilience. We are looking for people who will never give up. If you encounter a hurdle, you think of a solution.

E: Any plans for acquisitions or partnerships this year?

MG: We do not have any plans for acquisitions on the cards, but definitely partnerships with key stakeholders like Egyptian Banks Company to better serve our clients. We are also looking for partnerships with fintech companies. We are open for any meaningful partnership that will deliver added value to our clients.

E: And lastly, what do you think is in store for the Egyptian economy and EGP in 2024?

MG: I think the government will take all the right measures to make sure it solves the FX issue. I believe if we get the right support from the IMF in combination with an accelerated privatization program, then we will hear some good news about the EGP.

5

LEGAL

Youssef + Partners to shake up Egypt’s legal industry with generative AI through partnership with Harvey

One of the region’s leading law firms is about to get a helping hand from AI: Our friends at Cairo-based arbitration firm Youssef + Partners (Y+P) has signed a strategic partnership with American legal profession-focussed generative AI startup Harvey to integrate the technology into the firm’s legal practices and client services, Y+P said in a statement.

Harvey? The legal sector-focused AI company is backed by ChatGPT developer OpenAI and Silicon Valley-based VC giant Sequoia Capital, which both contributed to Harvey’s USD 80 mn series B funding round in December. Harvey made headlines last year after partnering up with magic circle law firm — insider speak for one of the top five London-based law firms — Allen & Overy to use AI to draft contracts in what the Financial Times described as a “challenge to [the] legal industry.” The startup also sent shockwaves through the legal world when it partnered up with PwC’s Legal Business Solutions in March.

The details: Egypt’s top dispute resolution law firm of 2023— according to Chambers Middle East — will be one of the two first law firms in the region to integrate the technology to “streamline legal functions including litigation analysis, document production, research, and compliance,” the statement said.

But real, flesh and bone human lawyers won’t be completely obsolete from the process:“All outputs without exception undergo thorough scrutiny, review and validation by Y+P attorneys, and the tool is strictly limited to use by qualified attorneys,” the statement added.

Watch out for more AI in the legal world: “The adoption of AI will become more prevalent and accessible in the legal sector across the region and the world, as we see more providers, platforms, and solutions emerge and as more awareness is spread,” Youssef + Partners told Enterprise.

6

EARNINGS WATCH

UAE’s Mashreq Bank achieves record net income in 2023

Our friends at Mashreq reported a 130% y-o-y rise in net income in 2023 to AED 8.6 bn (USD 2.3 bn), according to the bank’s earnings report (pdf). Management attributed the growth to a 69% y-o-y rise in net interest income to AED 7.7 bn, as well as cost reduction and solid client margins. A high interest rate environment and favorable one-off effects linked to loan loss provisioning backed the growth, the bank said. The bank’s non-interest income was up 13% y-o-y to AED 3.1 bn.

The bank’s total assets grew 21.7% y-o-y to AED 240 bn, as it ramped up loans and advances 25% y-o-y to a cumulative AED 149.5 bn, according to the report. Customer deposits rose 29% y-o-y to 146.2 bn.

What they said: “Our franchise continues to yield outstanding results, bolstered by the addition of a substantial number of new clients and the deepening of existing relationships across the bank,” Mashreq Chairman Abul Aziz Ghurair said.

Looking ahead: “Our course and position remain resolute, even in the face of ongoing uncertainty,” Group CEO Ahmed Abdelaal said. “We possess a stable, robust, and resilient business model, characterized by high quality earnings and a well-diversified loan portfolio spanning various markets.”

Operational adjustments could be necessary as interest rates normalize: “It is imperative, however, that we brace ourselves for the normalization of interest rates, which will necessitate adjustments in operational strategies to align with this new reality,” he added.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

7

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Egypt’s El Sisi ratifies green hydrogen incentives

LEGISLATION-

Green hydrogen incentives are officially law: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi ratified a decision putting forward a package of green hydrogen incentives yesterday, according to the Official Gazette. The decision includes a series of tax and non-tax related incentives aimed at boosting Egypt’s green hydrogen industry. The incentives were greenlit by the cabinet in May and MPs approved them earlier this month.

** We dive into the full package of incentives and the eligibility requirements in our coverage of the story last month.

8

PLANET FINANCE

The Federal Reserve to announce decision on interest rates today

It’s Fed day: The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates later today following the end of its two-day policy meeting.

No cuts just yet: Economists expect the Fed to leave interest rates at their current 22-year high of 5.25-5.5%, writes the Financial Times. Economists are instead looking to the Fed to cut rates at their following meeting in March or further down the line — late spring to early summer. “I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in December. The central bank has repeatedly urged caution to bullish markets that have priced in interest rate cuts as early as March, insisting that more encouraging inflation data is needed before the central bank can consider reversing its tightening cycle.

Premature cutting could be dangerous: Economists optimistic that rate cuts are coming later in the year feel the US economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates for longer rather than risking price pressures bouncing back after a premature cut.

EGX30

30,347

+3.8% (YTD: +21.9%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.83

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

19.25% deposit

20.25% lending

Tadawul

11,986

-2.2% (YTD: -0.2%)

ADX

9,519

-0.3% (YTD: -0.6%)

DFM

4,168

-0.1% (YTD: +2.7%)

S&P 500

4,925

-0.1% (YTD: +3.3%)

FTSE 100

7,666

+0.4% (YTD: -0.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,663

+0.5% (YTD: +3.1%)

Brent crude

USD 82.87

+0.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.09

+1.6%

Gold

USD 2,055

+0.5%

BTC

USD 43,534

+0.5% (YTD: +3.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 3.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.3 bn (119.5% above the 90-day average). Egyptian investors were net sellers. The index is up 21.9% YTD.

In the green: Oriental Weavers (+15.0%), Talaat Moustafa Group (+14.6%), and Orascom Development (+9.3%).

In the red: Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (-2.4%), Mopco (-2.0%), and GB Corp (-1.8%).

9

HARDHAT

A look at Egypt’s real estate market’s performance in 2023 + what to expect in 2024

Real estate sector shows resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges:The real estate sector managed to maintain positive momentum and show resilience in 2023 and heading into the following year, despite the persistent challenges coming from high inflation and interest rates, FX shortages, and import restrictions, global real estate consulting firm JLL said in its yearly review (pdf) for 2023.The report took a look at the residential, hospitality, office, and retail markets.

RESIDENTIAL-

2023 was a good year for the residential sector: The residential sector maintained high demand throughout 2023, despite units getting pricier on the back of inflation driving construction cost up. Buyers looked at residential units as means to hedge against a weakening EGP.

Further increase in prices is expected: Real estate prices are expected to see a significant increase — that could go up to 50% — in the near future, mostly due to the rapid increase in input costs, New Cairo Developers Association Head Mohamed El Bostany tells us.

New strategy? Some landlords have scaled back their payment plans to 5-8 years from up to 15 years, a move which is expected to fast track recovery in the sector as developers “explore cost-saving measures such as buying construction materials in bulk and offering advanced payments to contractors,” JLL said in the report.

In numbers: Cairo’s residential sector added some 23k units to the fray in 2023, up from 18k in 2022, increasing the total stock to around 268k units. However, that turned out to be way below the 35k JLL had projected in its 2022 market report (pdf). Another 33k units are expected to be delivered in 2024.

“It’s a very speculative market at the moment,” JLL’s Egypt Country Head Ayman Sami told Enterprise. Most of the units are being priced with the anticipated devaluation factored in as developers seek to “hedge against any future volatility in the exchange rate …which creates big cost increments.” On the other hand, input costs are increasing at a rate where they sometimes eat up at developers’ profit margins, so the higher sale prices aim to make up for some of the losses, Sami added, explaining that the contractor too would be looking to hedge gainst EGP volatility.

ICYMI- The government in July approved a decision to remove the cap on the number of properties foreigners can own provided that they pay for the properties in hard currency. The government is also working on a real estate-for-FX scheme that would grant incentives for Egyptian expats and foreigners in Egypt who are willing to pay in foreign currency to purchase properties in Egypt from private-sector developers.

HOSPITALITY-

More hotel rooms are being added to accommodate increase in arrivals: Around 250 rooms were added to Cairo’s hotel stock — well below the 900 projected by JLL last year — bringing the total hotel inventory to roughly 28k rooms. Over 1.5k rooms are expected to be delivered in 2024, mainly coming from 4- and 5-star hotels, according to the report.

Remember: Egypt welcomed a record 14.9 mn tourists in 2023, increasing the appetite of global hotel operators to expand their operations in Cairo, the report noted.

Tourism plays a big part in attracting foreign buyers to the real estate market, Sami tells us.Some real estate developers have already shifted their strategies to attract foreign buyers — especially from the GCC countries — with the North Coast becoming an increasingly attractive destination, Sami added.

OFFICE + RETAIL-

Office spaces were mainly targeted by international companies in Egypt and those looking to upgrade their office spaces, especially in the New Cairo area.The year saw the delivery of about 136k sqm of office space, which is below the 400k sqm previously projected. Almost 570k sqm of office space are scheduled for delivery in 2024, with offices in the new capital contributing the lion’s share, closely followed by New Cairo.

The retail sector had a rough 2023: A mere 83k sqm of gross leasable area (GLA) were added to Cairo’s retail market in 2023, compared to the 380k sqm that were expected to be delivered. Soaring inflation, the EGP’s devaluation, and the shrinking consumer purchasing power have weighed on the sector, the impact of which is expected to carry over into 2024. Some 447k sqm of retail space are scheduled for completion in 2024, the report estimates.

“Retail is still not a bad asset class, it’s just that things have changed — mainly for the international brands, in terms of affordability and import restrictions,” Sami explained. “E-commerce has [also] affected the amount of space that is required by retailers,” coupled with all the challenges we’ve had over the last few years, and then you start to see the reasons for the shift in the market, he added.


Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • Metro Line 4 phases 2, 3 are coming: The Transport Ministry and the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will start working on the feasibility studies for the second and third phases of Metro Line 4 in April, with plans to wrap them up by the end of 2024.
  • Better water management: The Irrigation Ministry inked an MoU with El Sewedy Industries and Australia’s Rubicon Water to cooperate and share information and resources in efforts to improve water management. (Statement)
  • Egypt, Jordan to lay out subsea cable: Telecom Egypt inked an agreement with Jordanian telecom service provider NaiTel to build a subsea cable — dubbed Coral Bridge.

2024

FEBRUARY

1 February (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

1 February (Thursday): OPEC+ oil market monitoring online meeting.

4 February (Sunday): The Senate meeting.

8 February (Thursday): Deadline to apply to Shalateen Mining Company’s international gold exploration tender.

11 February (Sunday): Deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Programin El Gouna.

15-16 February (Thursday-Friday): Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva meets with President El Sisi in Cairo.

19-21 February (Monday-Wednesday): EgyptEnergy Show, Egypt International Exhibition Center

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline to bid for 23 blocks in an international oil and gas tender.

MARCH

20 March (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

28 March (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 March (Friday): Egypt removed from JPMorgan Chase’s Emerging Local Markets Index Plus.

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC) (national holiday).

15-21 April (Monday-Sunday): The IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings.

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC) (national holiday).

28 April (Sunday): Grace period to ins. brokerage firms to comply with Law 215 for 2023 expires.

28-29 April (Sunday-Monday): Saudi Arabia hosts a World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting on ‘global collaboration, growth, and energy.’

29 April (Monday): The government’s car export scheme expires.

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC) (national holiday).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (national holiday).

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday - Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

January 2024: The Red Sea Ports Authority is set to finalize an agreement with the Abu Dhabi Ports Group for the operation and maintenance of the tourist passenger terminal in the Sharm El Sheikh Sea Port.

February 2024: Egypt will sign a USD 1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC).

February 2024: Funds from the Islamic Development Bank for the high speed electric railway will get the sign off.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

1H 2024: The European Union is set to hold an investment conference in Egypt during spring.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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