Good morning, everyone. After a busy Wednesday, we have a brisk issue for you this morning as we slide into the last weekend of the year.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- When can we expect the newly unlocked USD 1.2 bn from the IMF to land in state coffers? The IMF executive board is yet to put Egypt on its public calendar — the calendar appears to be cleared for the holidays. If the board doesn’t add Egypt to its calendar by Friday, then its discussion and vote on the country’s latest tranche will likely be pushed till after the new year celebrations, a government source told EnterpriseAM.
Remember: The International Monetary Fund reached a staff level agreement with the Egyptian authorities on the fourth review of its USD 8 bn loan program yesterday. The agreement grants Egypt access to USD 1.2 bn — the biggest tranche of the program so far — after the executive board gives its stamp of approval.
After the green light from the board, the USD 1.2 bn will be transferred to the central bank, which will then transfer its EGP equivalent to the Finance Ministry, our source added.
AND- In line with commitment to protect vulnerable groups: Next fiscal year’s budget — which goes to the House at the end of March — will include a new social program that focuses on increased spending to protect vulnerable groups amid soaring inflation.
#2- Real estate interest rates to stay at 15% until mid-2026: The Housing Ministry will extend its 15% cap on the interest rate on installments for real estate developers until 15 May 2026, Mubasher reports. The cap was introduced back in August to reduce financial burdens on developers and allow for faster project completion.
HAPPENING TODAY-
#1- To cut, or not to cut? The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet later today to review interest rates. The committee has left rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings this year, since the committee delivered a 600 bps rate hike following a surprise monetary policy meeting in March in conjunction with the float of the EGP and a larger loan package from the IMF being approved soon after.
The MPC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged amid ongoing price volatility, mixed signals in inflationary trends, and the depreciation of the EGP against the greenback, according to our poll of ten analysts and economists.
One vote for a cut: The National Bank of Kuwait sees “an early window for the central bank to embark on interest rate cuts from its final meeting of the year on December 26, potentially with a heavily front-loaded cut of 2-3%,” it said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM. The lender explained that while keeping rates unchanged would be a “more measured approach,” it would result in a “more compressed timeline for cuts in 2025.”
The outlook for 2025: The lender sees inflation averaging 13% in 2025, giving the central bank the chance to “bring policy rates down by a minimum of 8-10% in 2025 and further in 2026.”
#2- CBE to hold EGP t-bill auction: The Central Bank of Egypt will auction off EGP 60 bn worth of one-year and six-month EGP-denominated treasury bills with the submission deadline penciled in for 11am today, according to data on the central bank’s website. The central bank will auction off EGP 35 bn worth of six-month bills and EGP 25 bn worth of one-year bills.
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DATA POINT-
Egypt repaid USD 38.7 bn in outstanding debt this year, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly told the cabinet yesterday. Some USD 7 bn were repaid during November and December.
PSA-
WEATHER- It’s another cold day in Cairo, with a high of 18°C and a low of 10°C, according to our favorite weather app.
It’ll be partly cloudy but much the same temperature in Alexandria, with a high of 18°C and a low of 10°C.
And over the weekend, expect to see a high of 18°C and a low of 10°C in the capital.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
Two stories are dominating the front pages this morning:
#1- An Azerbaijani passenger jet crashed in Kazakhstan yesterday, killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. The flight was en route from Baku to Grozny in southern Russia when it flew miles off course, then eventually crashed on shore. While it remains unclear why the flight diverted course, Reuters explains that the flight diverted “from an area of Russia that Moscow has recently defended against Ukrainian drone attacks.” Initial investigations by Russian authorities suggest that the accident was the result of the plane colliding with birds. (Reuters | The Guardian | AP | BBC | CNN | New York Times)
#2- Russia launched a missile attack targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure yesterday, which caused Ukrainian state-owned electricity transmission company to restrict electricity in efforts to minimize damage to the country’s energy system. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | New York Times | France 24)





