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Gov’t wants to reel in EGP 3 tn in investment through 2030

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF ups Egypt’s growth forecast for FY 25-26 to 4.7%

Good morning, friends. We have reached mid-week and the news flow has taken a breather after a few busy days.

We lead today’s issue with the government’s EGP 3 tn investment target through 2030 as it looks to take 115 mn sqm in land to market. To make it a reality, a fresh package of investment incentives is in the works.

Egypt’s first: GIG Egypt could become the country’s first real estate title ins provider after it applied to the Financial Regulatory Authority for a license in a move that could unlock liquidity for the secondary market.

ALSO- We got our latest sign that the government’s reform agenda is moving us in the right direction after the IMF upped Egypt’s growth forecast for this year and the one after it.

AND- We really want to hear from you in our annual reader poll, which is back this year after a hiatus. Tap or click here and have your voice counted on issues including:

  • Whether you think business conditions will improve in 2026;
  • The biggest issue your business faces today;
  • What you think AI will mean for your company;
  • Where you see the EGP vs the USD this year;
  • And more…

We’ll have the full results of the poll for you at the end of this month.

WEATHER- Cairo is in for a windy day and a foggy morning. As for the weather, the capital is looking at a high of 18°C and a low of 10°C, according to our favorite weather app.



Watch this space

GROWTH — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upped its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.7%, a 0.2 percentage points increase from its October projection, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (pdf).

But what really stands out is the Fund’s 0.7 percentage point upward revision for the next fiscal year, bringing the forecasted headline rate to 5.4%.

The IMF’s two upgrades signal a growing consensus that the government’s reform agenda is bearing fruit and that the economic fallout from regional conflicts and tensions may not be as bad as once feared.

For the region more broadly, the Fund revised MENA’s growth forecast for 2026 up 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%, while its 2027 projection rose 0.3 percentage points to 4.0%, “supported by higher oil output, resilient local demand, and ongoing reforms.”

The global growth projection for 2026 was likewise raised 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the 2027 forecast remained stable at 3.2%. The Fund claimed that growth “remain[ed] resilient” on the back of AI and tech investment, fiscal and monetary support, supportive financial conditions, and an adaptive private sector offsetting the fallout from the trade war.

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Happening today

It’s day two of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos — and there are plenty of Egyptians taking to the stage. Representing Egypt’s private sector today is MNT-Halan CEO Mounir Nakhla, who will take part in a panel on Women at the Finance Frontier. Later in the day, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib will speak at a session on Hard Choices for Industrial Policy, while International Cooperation and Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat will speak on Where Are We with Emerging Markets?


CORRECTION: In yesterday’s issue, we referred to a plan to increase the personal tax exemption threshold to EGP 80k a year. We meant to refer to the total income tax exemption threshold for individuals, which includes both the personal exemption threshold and the zero-rate bracket. The story has been updated on our website.

The big story abroad

It’s a mixed bag in the foreign business press this morning, as Davos, Trump, and the EU’s potential retaliation against the US continue to dominate headlines.

Trump’s “Board of Peace” plans are still causing havoc, as he plans to sign off on its constitution and remit in Davos on Thursday. Invitations to the Board of Peace — which some are criticizing as being Trump’s answer to the UN — have been extended to dozens of countries, including the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, but France has openly declined the invitation and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing back due to the make-up of the Board of Peace for Gaza, which includes Qatar and Turkey.

^^The must-read on the topic: Trump Wants His Peace Board Signed in Davos. Macron Declines

Meanwhile, the chatter around the EU’s potential reaction to the US’ threats over its opposition to his claims over Greenland has extended to markets, with analysts looking at whether European countries might go as far as selling off tns of USD in US bonds and stocks, potentially driving borrowing costs up and equities down, Bloomberg reports. Analysts say this is an unlikely scenario given a lot of these assets are held by private funds, but the fact that Deutsche Bank’s chief global currency strategist is even discussing the “weaponization of capital” signals the current risks to markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty courtesy of Trump.

Speaking of markets, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent, the Intercontinental Exchange, is launching a 24/7 platform for trading of tokenized assets, Reuters reports.

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Italian fashion designer Valentino died yesterday at his home in Rome at 93, leaving behind a storied legacy both on the Red Carpet and across Paris’ haute couture catwalks.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: Does Egypt have the workforce to support its ambitious green transition targets?

Education with perspective. At Somabay, learning is about opening minds and shaping perspective. On 23 January, SBMUN will bring young voices together for dialogue, diplomacy, and shared understanding, set within a destination that encourages curiosity, confidence, and a wider view of the world.

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The Big Story Today

Egypt eyes EGP 3 tn in real estate FDI through 2030 with massive land bank and new incentive rollout

The Madbouly government is preparing an integrated incentive package designed to attract EGP 3 tn in real estate investment between 2026 and 2030, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. The plan centers on a massive land bank of 115 mn square meters, valued at over EGP 500 bn, which will be offered to local and foreign developers under a revised fiscal and regulatory framework.

Why it matters: The strategy aims to decentralize development beyond the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts. “We are looking to leverage the EGP 1 tn spent on the national road network to drive urban expansion across all of Egypt, not just coastal hotspots,” one source with knowledge of the matter told us. To that end, the Real Estate Development Chamber is setting up a committee to finalize an incentive package for developers moving into high-growth, non-coastal areas, Federation of Egyptian Industries’ real estate division head, Osama Saad El Din told us last week.

What can we expect from the package? The proposal includes a mix of tax breaks and cheaper payment terms. For projects in high-demand areas and fourth generation cities, the state will offer foreign investors in special economic zones or freezones tax breaks or exemptions. As for other massive land plots (valued at over USD 1 bn), the down payment will be slashed to just 10%.

As for projects being set up in Upper Egypt, investors will benefit from increased built-up area (BUA) ratios, higher service-area allowances, and a 20% extension on implementation timelines. In certain zones, a project will be considered complete once it reaches 80% execution, relieving developers of further construction-related fees.

Other incentives include: Cutting administrative fees for ministerial decrees by 5-25%, depending on the project’s strategic importance and boosting land utilization coefficients and water quotas by 5% to 10%.

NUCA and TDA land banks get a makeover: The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) and the Tourism Development Authority (TDA) are currently re-evaluating their massive, underutilized land portfolios. Sources indicate that internal studies are underway to re-price these plots in light of the new infrastructure network and recent investment inflows. This re-evaluation is a precursor to a fresh wave of land tenders expected to hit the market soon.

Fractional ownership takes center stage: Sources familiar with the matter tell us that a new legislative framework is currently being drafted to permit fractional property ownership, a move aimed at tapping into a broader base of international retail investors. This is being positioned as a primary real estate export tool, allowing foreign investors to gain exposure to the Egyptian market by owning shares of a property rather than being required to purchase an entire unit.

The state is also doubling down on sustainability, with a target to ensure that 25% of all new real estate projects qualify as green. To incentivize this shift, the government is offering a specialized package for eco-friendly projects, including lower interest rates on land installments and reduced administrative fees for licensing. Green projects will be granted higher “utilization coefficients,” allowing developers to maximize BUA on their plots as a reward for meeting environmental standards.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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Manufacturing

Hong Kong’s Crystal commits USD 350 mn in one of the largest FDI in Egypt’s textile sector

Hong Kong-based garment giant Crystal International is establishing a USD 350 mn integrated textile complex in Elsewedy Industrial Development’s Industria October, according to a statement. The project, which will operate under a private freezone status, marks one of the largest foreign direct investments in Egypt’s textile sector in recent years and is estimated to create 20k jobs.

Why it matters: Vertical integration is the goal. While Egypt has long been a garment assembly hub, this project targets vertical integration. The 800k sqm complex will handle everything from yarn spinning and weaving to dyeing. For operators, this is a signal that global manufacturers are looking to shorten supply chains and hedge against Asian logistics volatility by using Egypt as a near-shore base for European and US markets.

By opting for a private freezone status, Crystal — which supplies brands like Uniqlo, H&M, and Levi’s — is focusing on exports. This allows it to bypass traditional customs hurdles while benefiting from Egypt’s competitive labor and energy costs. The Industry Ministry is also leaning on the group to localize the production of components like buttons and accessories, which are currently a major import leak for the local industry.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

4

Real estate

GIG Egypt wants to launch the country’s first title insurance policy

Banks, buyers, and real estate developers may soon have a new tool to help them manage risk in real estate sales: title insurance. GIG Egypt officially applied to the Financial Regulatory Authority for a license to issue the country’s first real estate title ins policy, Managing Director Alaa Elzoheiry tells EnterpriseAM. Once greenlit, GIG plans to immediately ink strategic partnerships with developers to bake title coverage into their projects.

How it works: Unlike standard home ins. that covers future events like fire or theft, title ins. covers past, undiscovered risks at the time of purchase. The proposed policy will cover properties nationwide and not just in new cities, according to Elzoheiry. Premiums will be based on a case-by-case basis through a technical audit of the title chain, with clearer histories getting lower rates and more complex ones at risk of being rejected. Interestingly, the policy includes an option for unregistered properties, provided they have foundational proof, like court rulings or allocation letters.

Why it matters: The big thing here is comfort for buyers, who would be insured against risks they’re inheriting from the developer. By shifting the risk of title defects — such as forgery, hidden liens, or disputes — from the buyer and to the insurer, the policy makes a real estate purchase easier to think of. And if interest rates decline to the level that mortgage finance finally makes sense? It might increase bank appetite to finance that segment of the industry.

The new ins. cover, if approved by the regulator, could be a boon to sales of real estate to folks abroad, including foreigners and Egyptian expats wary of getting into a decades-long fight over a property with suspect paper. Foreign buyers, in the Gulf and elsewhere, have historically been wary of our land registry system. “This step is a total game-changer,” Uptown 6 October Chairman Moataz Shaarawy tells us. By offering a product that mirrors the legal security found in London or New York, developers can finally offer peace of mind to offshore buyers.

The possible kicker? If the FRA bites — and interest rates do come down — title insurance could really unlock liquidity for the secondary market, where buying is particularly fraught. And the new product could also bring more institutional capital into a market that’s becoming more diverse as players like our friends at GRANITE, Bonyan, and MMHD build out the nation’s fractional real estate segment. Shaarawy notes that his group is already exploring real estate investment funds that could use title ins. to help de-risk portfolios for global institutional allocators.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

5

Commodities

Egypt moves to more than triple its strategic food storage capacity in physical hedge pivot

Egypt is moving away from financial commodity ins. in favor of a massive physical hedge, more than tripling its food storage capacity from 1.8 mn tons to around 6 mn tons to insulate the budget from global price spikes, a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM. The state is now prioritizing physical hoarding as a proactive risk management tool, potentially shelving plans discussed last year to take out ins. contracts against rising commodity prices, they added.

Why this matters: The state is moving to protect its EGP 160 bn subsidy bill for commodities for the current fiscal year, which is already up 20% from the last budget. By shifting from paper hedges (which carry high premiums) to physical hedges, the state is betting that it can manage volatility more cheaply — and keep inflation in check — by buying in bulk during troughs and storing the surplus in a new, private-sector-built infrastructure.

Warehouses to accommodate the drastic increase in stockpiled commodities are also in the works, with the government to take delivery of three massive strategic warehouses designed to extend the shelf life of strategic reserves — particularly wheat — to 9-10 months in the second quarter of the year. The three warehouses in Sharqia, Suez, and Fayoum are being developed under build-own-operate-transfer agreements by Orascom Construction, Hassan Allam Holding, and Sancrete with investments totalling EGP 12 bn, we were told. The government is also accelerating the deployment of 40 smart silos before the spring procurement season.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Private sector gets a boost from the AfDB

The Planning Ministry signed two funding agreements with the African Development Bank (AfDB) yesterday totalling USD 170.4 mn, with the bulk (USD 170 mn) earmarked for the second phase of a program designed to bolster private sector development and economic diversification, according to a statement. The funds aim to drive structural reforms, stabilize the economy, and improve the business climate.

A smaller USD 400k grant will fund the expansion of Giza’s Abu Rawash wastewater treatment plant, increasing its capacity to 2 mn cubic meters daily, benefiting 8.6 mn residents.

Marakez secures financing for District 5 expansion

Marakez lined up a USD 3 bn credit facility from Kuwait Finance House Egypt to finance the expansion of its business campus Mindhaus, located in its landmark District 5 development, the developer said in a statement (pdf). The expansion will add around 17k sqm of leasable office space to the business campus.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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PLANET FINANCE

Gold, silver hit records as Trump’s Greenland ultimatum rattles markets

Gold and silver hit record highs Monday as US President Donald Trump’s Greenland ultimatum sparked a global flight to safety, fueling equity sell-offs and a weaker USD. With US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the impact was seen mainly in Europe and Asia.

What moved the market

Investors are pouring into havens as they see a return to the “US-EU trade war,” Fordham Global Foresight’s Tina Fordham told Reuters, after Trump announced 10% tariffs starting February on eight European nations opposing his bid to annex Greenland, to be raised to 25% by June without an agreement. EU officials condemned the move as “blackmail,” with Germany’s finance minister saying Europe’s “limit has been reached,” Bloomberg reports. Europe is planning retaliatory tariffs on EUR 93 bn (USD 108 bn) of US goods, and France may invoke the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument to restrict US access to public contracts and banking.

Beyond trade, the rally is being fueled by renewed concerns over US institutional stability. The Trump administration has renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and markets are anxiously awaiting a US Supreme Court argument scheduled for Wednesday regarding Trump’s effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Simultaneously, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman signaled that a fragile job market might necessitate future interest rate cuts, Reuters reported separately. Markets are currently pricing in at least two 25 bps rate cuts later this year.

A market in flux

Precious metals are having their moment in the sun: Spot gold jumped 1.7% to USD 4.68k an ounce, gold has now risen over 8% this year following a massive 64% gain last year. Spot silver surged 5% to USD 94.4 (up 32% YTD) while platinum (up 1.5%) and palladium (up 1.1%) also posted gains.

Global equities fell as risk appetite waned, with European futures down 1.1%, Japan’s Nikkei down 1%, and US tech in Frankfurt slipping — Alphabet down 2.4%, Nvidia and Microsoft down 2.2%, according to Reuters. Nasdaq 100 futures also dropped 1.25%. The USD weakened on rising political risk, with the EUR inched up 0.26% to USD 1.1628, while Bitcoin fell nearly 3% to USD 92.6k. On the flipside, European defense stocks surged nearly 15% this month on fears about Greenland — after the US seizure of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.

Looking ahead

Gold and silver rally set to continue: Analysts at Citigroup expect the precious metals rally to extend, forecasting gold to reach USD 5k and silver USD 100 an ounce within three months. JP Morgan strategists highlighted a stronger preference for gold, citing its “cleaner, bullish structural story,” while viewing any silver pullbacks as buying opportunities.

These geopolitical risks could threaten US tech: Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, cautioned that simultaneous pressure on the Fed and Europe could drive investors away from US assets, creating downside risks for already lofty US tech valuations.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s a sea of red for Asia-Pacific markets, which are down in early trading as investors remain jittery over US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland, while yields on Japan’s long-dated government bonds are rising. It’s not looking much better over on Wall Street, where futures point to a drop on the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq when markets open later today.

EGX30

45,048

+2.5% (YTD: +7.7%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.35

Sell 47.49

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.36

Sell 47.46

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

10,917

0.0% (YTD: +4.1%)

ADX

10,171

+0.5% (YTD: +1.8%)

DFM

6,344

+0.4% (YTD: +4.9%)

S&P 500

6.940

-0.1% (YTD: +1.4%)

FTSE 100

10,195

-0.4% (YTD: +2.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,926

-1.7% (YTD: +2.3%)

Brent crude

USD 63.94

-0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.60

+16.0%

Gold

USD 4,673

+1.7%

BTC

USD 92,633

-0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,001.73

+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.58

-0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

18.84

+18.7% (YTD: +26.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.9 bn (10.5% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 7.7% YTD.

In the green: Telecom Egypt (+8.7%), TMG Holding (+7.6%), and Madinet Masr (+4.9%).

In the red: Credit Agricole (-1.7%), Ibnsina Pharma (-0.9%), and E-finance (-0.8%).

8

Going Green

Egypt has ambitious green transition targets, but does it have the workforce to achieve them?

When it comes to discussing Egypt’s future, there are few government statements that don’t mention the country’s green transition as a key pillar. From large-scale solar projects on the Red Sea and ambitious — albeit delayed — green hydrogen goals to companies greening their production lines, the official narrative is one of inevitable growth.

This growth applies not just to the economy, but also to jobs, with the World Bank estimating in a report(pdf) that it will create 2 mn jobs a year between 2020 and 2050 under its baseline scenario. “Under certain parameters,” the World Bank sees this reaching as high as 3.8 mn years of employment in another report (pdf).

We need sustainable employment, not just energy

Figures for expected job years are encouraging, but the outlook for permanent jobs is unclear. Large-scale wind and solar farms often create a vast amount of jobs when they are being built, but after the project is finished and connected to the grid, many of these jobs disappear. Construction and development jobs often only last two to three years.

Long-term, sustainable green jobs are often for those in operation and maintenance roles. Solar stands out as a key creator for these kinds of jobs, with 56% of solar power jobs dedicated to them, according to the World Bank. Wind also creates a sizable amount of permanent jobs, with operation and maintenance roles accounting for 43% of the direct jobs created.

Localizing the manufacture of the hardware used in renewables projects is one way we could get a jobs dividend from the green transition. While the components used in renewables projects have historically been centered in China, the US, and a handful of European countries — in large part due to the newness of the technology — the tide is turning as manufacturing bases spread out away from the nations that pioneered the technology.

Recent announcements signal that Egypt is making progress in onshoring the manufacture of key components for renewables. Just this month, local industrial services player Kemet and China’s energy storage batteries manufacturer Cornex laid out plans to establish a USD 200 mn energy storage battery cells factory in Egypt using local raw materials, along with another project with China’s CCL Group to establish a USD 500 mn solar cells and panels plant. Throughout 2025, numerous similar projects were also announced — almost exclusively with Chinese partners.

Renewable projects struggle to find the right workers in the right place

Even where jobs exist, they are often not filled by Egyptians. In the wind energy sector, many companies operating farms are foreign, and the technicians they employ are often foreign as well, according to the World Bank. The lender attributed this to two primary factors: a shortage of skilled technicians despite an abundance of qualified engineers, and a language barrier, as English is the primary language used in most technical manuals and safety protocols.

The country’s EV ambitions also face a similar reality check. Egypt is looking to significantly increase the number of EVs on the road and the volume of vehicles assembled or manufactured within the country’s borders, but the average car mechanic in Egypt does not have the know-how for these new types of vehicles.

The right workers are also often in the wrong place. Most of Egypt’s population and skilled workforce are based in Cairo and Alexandria, which leaves projects in remote areas in Upper Egypt and the Red Sea — where the bulk of our solar and wind projects are located — with a significant lack of an already resident workforce to recruit from. Getting young professionals to relocate for these roles requires salary premiums and significant relocation costs, which, even when generous, are often not enough to persuade many.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)


2026

JANUARY

19-23 January (Monday-Friday): World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos-Klosters, Switzerland

22 January (Thursday): ESBC SEEING webinar, From Zurich to Cairo: How Global Executive Research Shapes Tomorrow’s Leadership.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

3 February (Tuesday): S&P Global to release PMI figures for January.

10 February (Tuesday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for January.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting of 2026.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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