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Good morning, wonderful people, and a very happy Monday. The Ramadan slowdown truly appears to be on us at last, as the newsflow gifts us another gentle day.
THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME: Interest rates on subsidized loans to industry and agriculture will be held steady at 11% despite the central bank’s 2% rate hike last week. Like we said — it’s a slow news day.
A brief reprieve? Expect the business press to pick up pace again today as March inflation figures are released at home, and the IMF / World Bank annual Spring Meetings kick off on the world stage.
REMEMBER- This is the last full work week of the month:
- Next week: Public and private sector workersare getting next Monday, 17 April off to mark Sham El Nessim. Banks will also be off on Sunday, 16 April to mark Coptic Easter, the central bank said yesterday.
- The week after next: Cabinet has yet to make clear what days we will observe as national holidays to mark Eid al-Fitr (which should land on or around Friday, 21 April) and Sinai Liberation Day (Tuesday, 25 April).
** SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? We’ll be breaking our fasts at 6:19pm CLT today. You have until 4:04am tomorrow morning to hydrate and grab a bite to eat.
HIGH-YIELD CDs-
Another new CD hits the market: National Bank of Kuwait Egypt (NBK Egypt) has launched a three-year, variable-rate CD at a rate of up to 20.25% on quarterly payout. The rate is 20% on monthly payout, Al Mal reports.
REMEMBER- At least four other private lenders have followed the lead of state-owned banks NBE, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, and United Bank Egypt and launched new certificates of depositin the wake of the central bank’s decision last month to raise interest rates by another 200 bps.
Demand is high for NBE’s high-interest CDs: Savers have so far poured some EGP 118 bn into the NBE’s new high-yield certificates of deposit, Al Malreports. The bank launched the three-year CDs — a fixed certificate at a 19% rate and a declining-rate certificate that starts at 22% — last week.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
Investors could get a piece of the state’s Nile view real estate: The government wants to open the door for investments in unspecified assets overlooking the Nile river in Giza and Cairo,Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said on Thursday in a meeting with several ministers and sovereign fund head Ayman Soliman.
HAPPENING TODAY-
It’s inflation day. Capmas and the Central Bank of Egypt will publish inflation data for March tomorrow, and it’s expected to be another difficult read. Headline inflation will likely soar to a record high on the back of the foreign-currency shortage, EGP devaluation and higher fuel prices, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. The median forecast of 13 analysts puts inflation at 33.6% in March, up from 31.9% the month prior and surpassing the all-time high of 32.95% in July 2017.
The IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings get underway in Washington: Global finance chiefs will converge in Washington, DC, to discuss the state of the global economy. Expect central banks’ struggle to balance bringing down inflation with protecting growth and financial stability to dominate the agenda amid uncertainty in the global financial markets triggered by the US banking crisis. The meetings run until Sunday, 16 April.
** We’ll find out more on the IMF’s prognosis for the global economy later today when it releasestwo more chapters of its latest World Economic Outlook.
In the Senate: The upper house of parliament will discuss a report on government efforts to save water by modernizing irrigation systems.
Could fiscal year = calendar year? The Senate’s Economic and Financial Affairs Committee is discussing changing the state’s fiscal year, which runs from July-June, to begin at the start of January. The committee will also discuss the impact of the real estate tax on industry and investments and how SMEs can help boost development.
Brownfield gold mining tender launches: Shalateen Mineral Resources will open aninternational gold mining tender for brownfield sites in the Eastern Desert. The company — whose major shareholders are the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority, the military’s National Service Projects Organization, and the National Investment Bank — is offering concessions in five areas in the Eastern Desert. The tender will close on 10 August.
HAPPENING TOMORROW-
It’s deadline day for NGOs to register with the government: All local and foreign NGOs have to register with the government by today under the 2019 NGO Law.
Cabinet ministers present the next fiscal year’s budget to MPs. Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Planning Minister Hala El Said will deliver statements on the new FY 2023-2024 budget and development plan in the House of Representatives tomorrow and on Wednesday.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
The foreign press is still leading with the story of leaked US military files that surfaced online, spilling details of everything from the war in Ukraine to American spying on allies in what some are calling the most serious US security lapse since WIkiLeaks. The Pentagon has not yet ruled out the possibility that some of the material is doctored or fictitious, but US officials now say they think the leak likely came from within the country rather than Moscow. (Reuters | NYT | WaPo| WSJ)
MORNING MUST READ-
Peace in Yemen before Eid? Saudi and Omani officials held talks in Yemen yesterday with the Iran-backed Houthi movement, as the KSA seeks a permanent ceasefire agreement to end the eight-year war, according to Reuters. If an agreement is reached, the parties may announce it prior to the Eid break later this month, the sources reportedly told the newswire last week.
Remember: Years of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran are beginning to thaw following a landmark China-brokered agreement last month that will see the two countries restore diplomatic ties and reopen embassies.
Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at the steps being taken to develop the domestic tire industry and address our outsized reliance on imports.
CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
GAFI’s electronic platform is coming in July: The General Authority for Freezones and Investment (GAFI) will launch its electronic platform to make it easier to set up a business on 1 July, GAFI head Hossam Heiba said(pdf)at an Alexandria Business Association iftar.
What electronic platform? The platform will provide investors with the services to establish companies, authenticate contracts at notary offices, and register using electronic signatures among other services. It was originally set to launch in April.
We are delighted to share with you that the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum will be taking place on Monday, 15 May at the Four Seasons Hotel at Nile Plaza.
DO YOU WANT TO ATTEND? The first wave of invites is going out soon. If you’re a C-suite exec, exporter, investor, official, banker, or someone who should be part of the conversation, please TAP OR CLICK HEREto request a spot at this exclusive event.
WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER? Ping a note to Moustafa, our head of commercial, here.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.
*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.
In today’s issue: We take a look at the work-shadowing experiences and training programs that can help Egyptian students and graduates gain an edge in the job market.
