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Gov’t raises prices at the pumps for the second time in 2025

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Egypt’s natural gas production jumps q-o-q in 3Q

Good morning, all. We kick off the work week with a brisk issue led by energy news after the government raised fuel prices by up to 12.9%. A fuel price increase is never just that, its impact will surely be felt across sectors but experts we spoke to remain optimistic that inflation will remain contained as we close out the year.

KEEP AN EYE OUT- Alongside the impact of the hike on inflation, we will also stay on the lookout for the government’s long awaited public debt strategy, which Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk now says will be out in December.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s a sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 30°C and a low of 20°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 28°C and a low of 19°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Natural gas production in 3Q 2025 clocked in the country’s first quarter-on-quarter rise in three years, according to preliminary data obtained by industry publication Middle East Economic Survey (Mees). Production rose by a small — but welcome —1% q-o-q to a daily average of 4.2 bcf/d for the three-month period.

But don’t bet on a sustained recovery of the sector any time soon, Mees cautions, pointing to an expected drop in output from the Zohr field till the end of the year. The quarterly gains stem from Shell’s successful doubling of output from its West Delta Deep Marine project, but there’s not much in the way of a development pipeline across the nation to carry on the momentum, according to the outlet.

REMEMBER- Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said in August that his government aims to boost Egypt’s gas production to 6.6 bcf/d by 2027.


#2- Where’s the Cairo Airport Terminal 4? President Abdel Fattah El Sisi reviewed progress on the construction of Terminal 4 of Cairo International Airport during a meeting with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Civil Aviation Minister Sameh Elhefny, and other senior officials, according to a statement from Ittihadiya. The terminal is expected to double the airport’s annual capacity to 60 mn passengers, once complete.

REMEMBER-The USD 4.5 bn fourth passenger terminal at Cairo International Airport, first announced in 2019, will be completed within four years after securing the cabinet’s approval, Elhefy previously said.

Also on the aviation front: The meeting also reviewed plans to expand Egypt’s annual civil aviation capacity to 72.2 mn passengers by the end of 2025 and attract foreign investment through new integrated airport investment zones, as part of the government’s broader strategy to welcome 30 mn tourists annually.


#3- Our green bunkering ambitions have taken another hit, following the International Maritime Organization voting to shelve its net-zero framework on Friday. The UN body had been readying to rubber-stamp the push for a 20% reduction in emissions in the industry by 2030 and net-zero by 2050 through a set of emission reduction mandates and penalties before the Trump administration began threatening nations and individuals with tariffs and visa restrictions if they voted it through. The shipping body will revisit the legislation for another vote in a year’s time.

Charging shipping lines for emissions was seen as a central tool to push the industry to seek out less polluting fuels like green hydrogen, which policymakers here at home and foreign investors thought could be the catalyst for accelerating the push to turn the Suez Canal into a green bunkering hub. As of June last year, Egypt had signed 32 MoUs amounting to some USD 175 bn worth of investments for green hydrogen projects, but the “challenge is turning those promises into projects,” according to the Green Hydrogen Organization.

** We recently published a deep dive into the headwinds facing our green bunkering efforts and what experts say we should do. Check it out here.


#4- Egypt’s Imdad inked a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia’s EMC to set up two integrated industrial complexes — one in Egypt and another in Saudi Arabia — according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. The complexes will be set up in Tenth of Ramadan and Jeddah 2nd Industrial City. Timeline details and investment costs were not disclosed.


#5- Egypt, IFC talk deepening cooperation: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib and Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat met with IFC Managing Director Makhtar Diop on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, where they discussed expanding partnership to implement the State Ownership Policy and efforts to empower the private sector. Both sides also highlighted the importance of regional stability to foster investor confidence.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Aswan Forum kicks off today in — you guessed it — Aswan under this year’s theme of A World in Flux, A Continent in Motion: Navigating Africa’s Progress Amid Global Shifts. The two-day event will gather leaders from Africa and further afield to discuss African-led solutions to champion “African-led solutions that reflect the continent’s aspirations for peace, development, and prosperity.”


#2- It’s day one of the Arab-African Investment & International Cooperationsummit. The four-day summit, organized by the Arab Women Investors Union in Cairo, will focus on sustainable development, international partnerships, and capital pathways for this year’s edition.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Investors have until tomorrow to bid for 386 ready-to-deliver industrial units across the country offered up on the Egypt Industrial Digital Platform, spread across 12 industrial complexes in 11 governorates, according to an Industry Ministry statement.

The offering includes units ranging from 48-792 sqm for engineering, chemicals, food, textiles, ready-made garments, metals, plastics, and pharma activities. It includes facilities in Beni Suef, Sohag, Red Sea, Qena, Assiut, Minya, Fayoum, Luxor, Alexandria, Aswan, and Gharbia. Applicants can own or lease the units.

The government is also offering a 5% declining interest rate on loans and bank financing covering up to 100% of the unit’s value, along with financing for equipment and machinery, and the provision of technical and marketing support through the MSME Development Agency.

SUNDAY MORNING KUDOS-

Our friends at Al Tamimi and Company marked last week the 10-year anniversary of their opening in Egypt. “Over the past decade, we have not only built a strong team of talented lawyers, but have also been privileged to support clients on some of Egypt’s most significant projects,” said Ayman Nour (pictured, right), partner and head of the Egyptian office, pointing to a roster of clients that includes Egyptian government institutions, multinationals, regional investors, and domestic companies. The firm aims to continue growing here, said chairman Essam Al Tamimi (pictured, left), noting, “Egypt is a vital hub for business and investment.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The International Conference for the Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development in Gaza will be held in Cairo in the second half of November, with preparations currently underway, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said in a call. The event aims to mobilize international support and financial commitments to rebuild Gaza.

Danish shipping giant Maersk will also offer support for Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, Chairman Robert Maersk Uggla said during a meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Uggla said the East Port Said Port would be a key logistics hub in the reconstruction efforts.

MEANWHILE- Israel refused to open the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza, after the Palestinian Embassy in Egypt said the crossing would reopen on Monday for people returning to the strip, the Associated Press reports. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said reopening the crossing would depend on Hamas fulfilling its ceasefire obligation to return the remains of all 28 dead Israeli hostages.

#2- The transport and logistics exhibition TransMEA will run between 9-11 November at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The exhibition, organized with the Transport Ministry, will bring together global and regional players to showcase innovations in mobility, logistics, and smart infrastructure.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.


** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Massive crowds of protestors have gathered across cities in the US on Saturday as part of the No Kings movement against US President Donald Trump’s policies, marking the second wave of such protests this year, following the June demonstrations. Demonstrators are protesting against Trump’s immigration crackdown, restrictions on press freedom, push to deploy National Guard troops to American cities, “authoritarian” agenda, and crackdown on First Amendment rights. Republicans and Trump allies branded the protests as anti-American, and a far-left Antifa movement. (Reuters | AP | Financial Times | Washington Post | CNN | BBC)

OVER IN ASIA- Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire putting an end to a week of clashes on the border of the two countries, that have killed dozens and injured hundreds — in what was said to be the worst violence between the two nations since the Taliban took power in Kabul in 2021, Reuters reports. The agreement came during peace talks in Doha, mediated by the host country and Turkey.

From October 12–16, Somabay hosted the Somabay World Cup for the first time in Egypt, welcoming 173 participants from 19 countries to its signature Red Sea course. The tournament spotlighted Egypt’s growing presence on the global golf map, set against Somabay’s year-round sunshine, luxury resorts, and world-class sports and leisure scene.

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Energy

Egypt hikes fuel prices ahead of expected IMF loan review

Egypt raised fuel prices for the second time this year, with fuel prices up by up to 12.9% for conventional fuels, according to an Oil Ministry statement following a decision by its fuel pricing committee that came into effect Friday. A government push to phase out energy subsidies and bring domestic prices in line with international energy markets has seen 95-octane prices rise by 40.7%, 92-octane by 54.0%, 80-octane by 61.4%, and diesel prices by 75.0% since the start of 2024, according to calculations by EnterpriseAM.

The move came amid discussions on the IMF’s combined fifth and sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility program, which took place between an Egyptian delegation and the fund on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF annual meetup in Washington that wrapped Saturday. One of Egypt’s main commitments — and sticking points — with the fund was to close the gap between fuel cost and its end price by the close of 2025, excluding diesel.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Here’s what you’re paying now:

  • 95-Octane is now priced at EGP 21.00 per liter, up 10.5% from EGP 19.00;
  • 92-Octane rose to EGP 19.25 per liter, up 11.6% from EGP 17.25;
  • 80-Octane is now EGP 17.75 per liter, a 12.7% increase from EGP 15.75;
  • Diesel price climbed to EGP 17.50 per liter, up 12.9% from EGP 15.50;
  • The price of compressed natural gas for automobiles rose to EGP 10.00 per cubic meter, up 42.9% from EGP 7.00 previously — a price that has been fixed since October 2024.

But on the plus side, this will be the last fuel price hike for at least a year, according to the ministry. The decision was supported by the decline in global oil prices, the improvement in the exchange rate, and Egypt’s success in securing its petroleum needs, which allowed the state to recover costs and fix prices for a full year instead of conducting quarterly reviews, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The source added that improving regional conditions also helped redistribute the burden across all petroleum products and reduce some of the previously planned increases before the Gaza onslaught was halted.

The hike is widely expected to break the country’s four-month streak of cooling inflation, potentially rising up to 13.5% y-o-y in October, up 1.8 percentage points from September, Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM. The increase could also result in month-on-month inflation rising from September’s 1.8% to as high as 3.5%, according to Genena.

But even with the speeding up of inflation to this point, inflation will still be short of a good 8% or more from the country’s overnight lending rate of 22.00%, Genena added. Analysts seem in agreement that the central bank will hit pause on rate cuts this November to assess the impact of the fuel price hikes, but many, including Genena, think the central bank may decide that it has the room for another 100 bps cut in December.

“We believe the fuel price hike will cast its shadow on inflation rate through mainly impacting food and transportation items,” Thndr Securities Brokerage’s Esraa Ahmed told us. “We believe annual inflation rate will remain relatively contained, hovering around 12.5-13%, giving CBE room to cut interest rates gradually by another 100 bps up to year-end.”

DATA POINT- The price increase will save the government some EGP 28 bn this fiscal year, an unnamed government official told Asharq Business.

Rising diesel prices will likely push up production and distribution costs for farmers, especially those producing fruits, vegetables, and foodstuffs, which in turn could lead to higher prices for consumers, Farmers’ Syndicate head Hussein Abu Saddam told us. However, the effect on manufactured food prices is expected to remain limited due to the stronger exchange rate and lower import costs, which have helped stabilize production inputs, Egyptian Federation of Chambers of Commerce’s Food Division member Hazem El Menoufy told EnterpriseAM. El Menoufy explained that ample supply and strong competition among producers will also help prevent large price increases.

Freight rates for container transport at ports are also expected to rise following the diesel price hike, Chamber of Commerce’s International Transport and Logistics Division Secretary General Amr Al Samdoni told EnterpriseAM. Al Samadoni said that his division is currently assessing the size of the increase.

Land freight rates have already seen limited movement, with expected increases of 7-8% following the rise in diesel prices, the Alexandria Chamber of Commerce’s International Transport and Logistics Services Division said in a statement. The expected increase represents a realistic reflection of cost pressures, while remaining balanced with current market demand, Land Transport Committee head Mansour El Bereek told us.

The increase in prices is also expected to raise operating costs for mobile networks and telecom infrastructure, a senior source at a telecom company told EnterpriseAM, adding that companies are trying to absorb the increase internally while ensuring service quality. Another industry source said that a study on operating costs will be conducted, and if expenses rise significantly, companies may request the National Telecoms Regulatory Authority to review potential adjustments to service prices.

The rise in fuel prices will likely have a limited effect on building materials, as the construction sector relies on several energy sources beyond petroleum, Chamber of Commerce’s Building Materials Division head Ahmed Al Zeini told EnterpriseAM. However, land transport and freight costs are expected to increase, Al Zeini said.

The price hike also caught the attention of the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Associated Press.

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DEBT WATCH

Egypt to unveil public debt strategy in December

New public debt strategy set for December release: The Finance Ministry is planning to unveil its new public debt strategy this December, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told representatives from JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs in Washington, according to a ministry statement.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The announcement confirms what we reported in July about the upcoming strategy for 2025-2030, which will feature social and sustainability bond issuances. Originally slated for release at the start of this year, the strategy was postponed due to “disruptions in the interest rate market and difficulty forecasting the impact of previous tensions on bond markets,” a source told EnterpriseAM at the time.

The broad strokes: The Finance Ministry aims to bring public debt down to below 75% of GDP within three years, from 85% in the last fiscal year, while cutting debt servicing costs to 7% of GDP and extending debt maturity to five years.

How are we going to get there? The strategy will employ several mechanisms, including debt-for-investment swaps modeled after the Ras El Hikma agreement — converting a significant portion of regional and international deposits into investments — alongside increased concessional financing from financial institutions.

That’s not all: At least half of the USD 1.25-1.5 bn in proceeds the state is targeting from offering up stakes in four state-owned companies by June will go toward reducing government debt, which will help support the government’s efforts to reduce debt by 10% of GDP over two years.

By the numbers: The Finance Ministry reduced the state’s external debt by USD 4 bn over the past two fiscal years, while domestic debt fell by 10% during the same period, according to a document seen by EnterpriseAM. The debt-to-GDP ratio reached 11% (EGP 1.9 tn) by the end of FY 2024-2025, up from 9.8% (EGP 1.3 tn) in the fiscal year prior. Debt accounted for 49.4% of total public spending last fiscal year, according to the document.

REMEMBER- Egypt returned to the international debt market earlier this month, with a USD 1.5 bn sukuk offering, which received USD 9 bn in subscription requests. The issuance stands as Egypt’s third-ever sovereign sukuk issuance and the fiscal year’s first, following June’s USD 1 bn sovereign sukuk issuance, which was fully subscribed by Kuwait Finance House, and our maiden sukuk issuance back in 2023.

More to come: The ministry is also planning two more international issuances this year. One will be a conventional issuance, while the other could either be a labeled bond — think green, blue, or sustainability bond — or an issuance in a foreign market, like a Panda or a Samurai bond. Total issuances for the year will total USD 4 bn — just like last year.

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4

Banking

Central Bank of Egypt raises rates on subsidized mortgage initiatives for low- and mid-income borrowers

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) hiked the interest rates offered under its two subsidized mortgage finance initiatives, according to a circular seen by EnterpriseAM. The rate on the initiative for middle-income borrowers following the cabinet’s green light has been raised to a declining 12% from 8%, while the rate on the program for low-income borrowers increased to a declining 8% from 3%. The decision applies to all new loans issued under the two initiatives as of 15 October 2025, with no retroactive effect on existing financing.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The central bank said the revision comes as part of a broader review of the state’s mortgage finance programs to align with current economic conditions. The change follows multiple rate hikes and an overall tightening of monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation and restoring balance in credit pricing.

The initiatives had long offered highly subsidized financing for homebuyers, allowing repayment periods of up to 30 years at fixed declining rates. Under the new terms, new borrowers will pay higher monthly installments, though existing beneficiaries will continue servicing loans at their original rates. Commercial banks implementing the initiatives are expected to adjust their lending pipelines and marketing accordingly.

IN OTHER BANKING NEWS-

CIB is preparing to launch a fully digital bank in Egypt before the end of 2026, CEO Hisham Ezz Al Arab told Asharq Business. A holding company abroad — likely in the UAE or UK — will establish the bank in Egypt and then in other countries, he added.

ICYMI- The bank will apply for a digital banking license early next year, Ezz Al Arab said last week, adding that it will not take long to obtain the license, as the bank has been working on developing its platform for over a year.

5

Diplomacy

Egypt, India want to boost trade to hit USD 12 bn

More Egyptian-Indian trade ahead: During his time in New Delhi, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra and spoke to Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, where they agreed to boost trade between the two nations to hit USD 12 bn, up from USD 5 bn currently.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

To make it happen: Abdelatty pointed to the need to form an Egyptian-Indian business council and an Egyptian-Indian Chamber of Commerce, as well as the need to hold a joint business forum during Goyal’s scheduled visit to Egypt early next year.

On the agenda for Goyal’s visit: The minister will lead a delegation of representatives of major Indian companies and members of the Federation of Indian Industry looking to learn more about potential investments in the local market, namely in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. Discussions will also touch on setting up an Indian Industrial Zone within the SCZone.

Abdelatty was in New Delhi to co-chair the Egyptian-Indian Strategic Dialogue alongside his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar. The first session of the dialogue touched on trade, investment, defense cooperation, as well as regional and international issues.

Fertilizer-for-wheat swap? Abdelatty also met with head India’s Sun Group, where he brought up the possibility of looking into an agreement to swap Egyptian fertilizers for Indian wheat, according to a statement. He pitched further Indian investment in Egypt’s industrial sectors, citing recent reforms aimed at creating a more competitive investment climate.

WHILE IN INDIA- Abdelatty delivered a letter from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to Modi highlighting ways to deepen Egyptian-Indian ties. Abdelatty said Cairo looks forward to hosting the eighth Egypt-India Joint Committee in 1H 2026.

6

Moves

Essam Farid tapped as president of the Egyptian Senate for the 2025-2030 legislative term

Senate elects Essam Farid as its president for the next five years: The Senate elected Judge Essam Farid as president for the 2025-2030 legislative term — he secured 100% of the votes with no invalid ballots, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. Farid had a long career as part of Egypt’s legal system and is currently a member of the Supreme Judicial Council.

IN CONTEXT- The Senate elects a president and two deputies from among its members at the beginning of each legislative term, by an absolute majority of valid votes.

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EGYPT IN THE NEWS

CNN Business zooms in on Egypt’s North Coast real estate boom

CNN Business is the latest outlet to shine a spotlight on Egypt’s North Coast, reporting that the Mediterranean strip has already attracted some USD 70 bn in investment over the past two decades, with PwC Middle East estimating another USD 150 bn on the way. The growth of the North Coast real estate market and its acceleration following the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement is a familiar story to long-time readers of EnterpriseAM, but it is increasingly becoming known to global investors and elite holidaymakers alike.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

National Bank of Egypt opens its first Saudi branch

EXPANSION-

#1- The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) inaugurated its first Saudi branch in Riyadh on Thursday, after receiving clearance from the Saudi Central Bank to operate in the kingdom, according to a statement (pdf) from the state-owned bank. CEO Mohamed El Etreby said the branch marks a key step in NBE’s international expansion strategy and will focus on corporate banking and trade finance services for companies operating in Saudi Arabia.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)


#2- 2M Electric Egypt will invest SAR 200 mn to set up a factory in Saudi Arabia by mid-2026, Commercial Sector Director Ahmed Hassan told Al Borsa. The 6k-sqm facility will produce low- and medium-voltage electrical panels using 100% Egyptian labor and technology. The expansion is part of the company’s plan to tap into Gulf and African markets, aiming to add production lines and grow exports to Tanzania, Kenya, Sudan, and Iraq.

REAL ESTATE-

Hassan Allam Construction will build a new 305-feddan luxury development under a USD 550 mn turnkey contract, covering infrastructure, landscaping, and the building of residential, commercial, and office units, according to a company statement (pdf). The project is being developed by fellow Hassan Allam Holding’s subsidiary Hassan Allam Properties alongside Grova Developments.

ENERGY-

The Suez Canal Authority is mulling setting up a natural gas liquefaction and storage facility to fuel its locomotives, according to an Oil Ministry statement. The proposed project in Port Said would support the authority’s green transformation strategy.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION-

The EU unveiled a new Pact for the Mediterranean to strengthen political, economic, and social ties with Southern Mediterranean partners, according to a statement from the EU. The pact aims to create a “Common Mediterranean Space” that is connected, secure, and resilient through projects that promote clean energy, investment, and job creation. The initiative focuses on practical cooperation to support youth, women, and small businesses while also addressing shared challenges such as migration management, maritime security, and infrastructure resilience.

The strategy rests on three pillars — people and innovation, sustainable and integrated economies, and security and migration. Flagship projects include a Mediterranean University to link students across the region, the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy and Clean Tech Initiative (T-MED) to scale up clean energy cooperation, and a regional forum on peace and security. The pact — open to engagement with partners beyond the Southern Mediterranean such as the Gulf and Sub-Saharan Africa — will be endorsed in November 2025. An accompanying action plan outlining participating countries and initiatives is expected in early 2026.

MANUFACTURING-

Local gold trader and manufacturer Avrio Gold plans to launch a new 1k-sqm plant for jewelry and gold bar production in an industrial zone in early 2026, according to a statement from the company seen by EnterpriseAM. The expansion is part of the company’s plan to boost output and strengthen its footprint in Egypt’s gold market, where it also serves as an authorized distributor for several global bullion brands.

EARNINGS WATCH-

Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals’ bottom line fell 20.4% y-o-y in 9M 2025, logging in EGP 1.5 bn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The company's revenues for the period rose 8.9% y-o-y to EGP 10.9 bn.

9

PLANET FINANCE

Big investors retreat from risky credit after rally leaves spreads near crisis lows

Major asset managers are cutting exposure to riskier corporate debt as a multi-year rally is leaving valuations stretched, the Financial Times reports. BlackRock, M&G, and Fidelity International are shifting into higher-rated or government bonds, warning that credit markets now offer little reward for added risk. The rally, which had been fueled by easing trade-war fears and expectations of deeper Fed rate cuts, could be underpricing risk and reflecting an overly optimistic view on the economy

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What’s priced in now is a “Goldilocks” scenario of steady growth and falling rates, but BlackRock’s Simon Blundell called it a “risk/reward [that] certainly lends itself to a defensive position in credit markets.”

Spreads at crisis-level lows: Credit spreads in the US and Europe have tightened to about 0.8 percentage points over government debt, down from 1.5 ppts in 2022 and near their lowest since the global financial crisis, dragging down their appeal compared to the safer alternative. “Credit spreads are so tight that there’s almost no ability for them to tighten further,” said Fidelity’s Mike Riddell.

Some cracks are emerging, with spreads edging wider amid renewed US-China trade tensions and the collapse of auto-parts supplier First Brands Group. Several leveraged-loan transactions, including a USD 5.8 bn sale by chemicals maker Nouryon, have been shelved, while prices for weaker loans have slipped.

Risk is mispriced: Some managers warn that credit differentiation has vanished. “Not only is the corporate credit market way too tight, it’s also equivalently tight between companies,” Andrea Seminara of Redhedge said, warning that “idiosyncratic risk [...] is completely unpriced.”

Not everyone is turning bearish: M&G’s Ben Lord said all-in yields remain appealing as US investment-grade bonds offer about 4.8%, though he still favors covered and higher-rated financial bonds — the cost of buying into which “is as low as it’s ever been,” he said.

EGX30

37,677

+0.1% (YTD: +26.7%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.51

Sell 47.65

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.50

Sell 47.60

Interest rates (CBE)

21.00% deposit

22.00% lending

Tadawul

11,697

+0.1% (YTD: -2.8%)

ADX

10,124

-0.2% (YTD: +7.5%)

DFM

5,992

-0.6% (YTD: +16.2%)

S&P 500

6,664

+0.5% (YTD: +13.3%)

FTSE 100

9,355

-0.9% (YTD: +14.5%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,607

-0.8% (YTD: +14.5%)

Brent crude

USD 61.29

+0.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.01

+2.4%

Gold

USD 4,213

-2.1%

BTC

USD 107,105

+0.6% (YTD: +14.5%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

947.01

+0.1%(YTD: +21.8%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.76

+0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

20.78

-17.9% (YTD: +19.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.3 bn (38.9% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 26.7% YTD.

In the green: EFG Holding (+2.7%), Raya Holding (+2.1%), and Egypt Kuwait Holding -EGP (+1.7%).

In the red: Arabian Cement (-1.9%), Misr Cement (-1.8%), and Qalaa Holdings (-1.1%).


OCTOBER

19-20 October (Sunday-Monday): Egypt to host the fifth edition of the Aswan Forum.

19-22 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit.

22 October (Wednesday): Egypt-EU Summit, Brussels, Belgium.

23-25 October (Thursday-Saturday): Stone Africa Expo, Cairo International Conference Center.

28 October (Tuesday): BEBA’s working dinner with Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib.

October: The third iteration of the Export Smart Exhibition and Conference.

October: The tenth session of the Egyptian-Lebanese Joint Higher Committee.

Mid-October: Capmas to publish the findings of its 2023-2024 income and expenditure survey.

NOVEMBER

1 November (Saturday): The official opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

3 November (Monday): S&P Global to release PMI data for September.

9-11 November (Sunday-Tuesday): The sixth edition of the TransMEA 2025 forum and exhibition, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

10 November (Monday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for October.

16-19 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT 2025, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 November (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23-25 November (Sunday-Tuesday): NEBU Expo 2025 gold and jewelry exhibition, Egypt International Exhibitions Center, New Cairo.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

November: The Conference on Early Recovery, Reconstruction, and Development in Gaza.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (Monday-Thursday), Egypt International Exhibition Center.

4-7 December (Thursday-Sunday): Egy Stitch & Tex Expo 2025, Cairo International Conference Center.

15 December (Monday): Neo Gen PropTech and Sustainable Smart Cities Conference, The St. Regis Hotel New Capital

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

December: Germany’s North Rhine-Westphala business delegation to land in Egypt.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

3Q 2025: Polaris Parks to finalize contracts for two new industrial zones in the new capital and Sadat City.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

15 March 2026: IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

15 September 2026: IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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