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Government unveils six-year strategy to triple FX receipts

1

What We're Tracking Today

More economy news than you can shake a stick at

Good morning, wonderful people. We hope you’re strapped in, because we have a busy issue for you this morning, with news spanning diplomacy to Planet Startup, by way of a review of the Madbouly government’s economic plans, new 27% CDs to sop up some of the liquidity now hitting the market as last year’s instruments mature, and a barrel of economic indicators to mull.

BUT FIRST- It’s shaping up to be a big week on the diplomacy front. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is in town today for talks with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, according to a statement from the Palestinian News & Information Agency yesterday. The two will discuss efforts “to immediately and sustainably stop the genocidal war waged by Israel” and how to address with the “unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe” facing the people of Gaza, the agency writes.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit the UAE and KSA today in his fourth visit to the region since the war in Gaza broke out. He’s still due to visit Egypt, Israel, and the West Bank, and has already made stops in Qatar, Turkey, Greece, and Jordan. The State Department shows Blinken as being in our part of the world from 4-11 January. (Reuters | Bloomberg)

Expect Blinken here closer to 11 Januaryif the itinerary holds. It shows him passing through Tel Aviv, the West Bank, and Cairo last.

Egyptian, Qatari, and US mediators have reportedly reconvened ceasefire talks that had been put on pause after a suspected Israeli drone strike in Beirut last week, writes The National.

And Israel’s armed forces claim to have dismantled Hamas’ military infrastructure in northern Gaza, an IDF spokesman said on Saturday, reports CNBC.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- An IMF delegation visit to Cairo this month could be on the cards: Representatives from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are likely to visit Egypt this month to finalize the timeframe for our new loan from the Fund, Cabinet Spokesperson Mohamed El Homsani told Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa on Wednesday (watch, runtime: 3:17).

#2- Is Oman eyeing Ebank? Oman’s sovereign wealth fund, the Oman Investment Authority (OIA), is considering acquiring a majority stake in the Export Development Bank (Ebank) with an OIA delegation visiting Ebank last week, reports Al Borsa, citing sources it says are close to the talks. Al Borsa says that Ebank was added to the state’s IPO program at the end of last year and is one of the companies that the government intends to exit during 1H 2024. State financial institutions currently hold an 84% stake in Ebank.

We heard several rumors of an Ebank sale last year, most recently in September when unconfirmed media reports claimed that the government is planning to add the EGX-listed bank to its privatization program. Ebank denied any knowledge of a potential sale to private investors the month before after a recent change in its governing establishment laws prompted speculation that Ebank would be up for sale.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Eyes are once more on the Red Sea as the US mulls strikes against the Houthis:Washington said that the Houthi group would “bear the responsibility of the consequences” if they continued to wage attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, in a statement on Wednesday. According to defense and security experts interviewed by Bloomberg, the US could resort to appeasement, ship escorts, targeted strikes, or potentially a major offensive, if diplomatic efforts fail.

Maersk said on Friday it would skip the Suez Canal entirely “for the foreseeable future” in the latest sign that global supply chains (and Egypt’s finances) will be challenged by developments in the sea.

AND- The WSJ has a long investigative piece on allegations that Space X / Tesla / X boss Elon Musk uses illegal substances — and that his use of them could be a contributor to what some in the boardroom and in media have dubbed “erratic office behavior.”

MEANWHILE- The US Congress has less than two weeks to pass a USD 1.66 tn spendingbillor face a government shutdown. And a combined EU peacekeeping force “is a fundamental precondition for having an effective European foreign policy,” Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said in an interview with Italian newspaper La Stampa yesterday.

DATA POINT-

Egypt has planted 3 mn acres worth of wheat since November, a y-o-y increase of about half a mn acres, according to a Cabinet statement. On the import side, Egypt brought a total of 11 mn tons of wheat from abroad in 2023 compared to 9.6 mn tons in 2022, Assistant Supply Minister Ibrahim Ashmawy recently told Asharq Business.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Attention sellers, all commodities must have prices on them starting March when they are put on the market for end consumers, Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy said during a recent press conference, according to Asharq Business.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We talk with OrcasCEO Hossam Taher about the company’s 100% acquisition by Kuwaiti edtech company Baims.

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Economy

Egypt’s government unveils six-year strategy to triple FX receipts to USD 300 bn. PLUS: IMF sees USD trading at 36.83 against EGP through 2028

The government has a new and ambitious FX inflows target for 2030: The Madbouly government aims to ramp up its foreign exchange inflows to around USD 300 bn a year by 2030 — nearly triple the country’s current annual FX revenues — to boost the economy’s resilience. The new target came in a report (pdf) from the Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) that outlines the government’s economic strategy for President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s third term beginning, which starts in April.

The game plan for 2030:

  • Growing exports by at least 20% each year to reach USD 145 bn.
  • Raising tourism revenues by 20% annually to USD 45 bn.
  • Increasing remittances from Egyptians abroad by 10% annually to USD 53 bn.
  • Increasing foreign direct investments (FDI) — including investment in real estate — by 10% annually to USD 19 bn.
  • Boosting Suez Canal revenues — including revenues from maritime services —by 10% annually to USD 26 bn.
  • Ramping up outsourcing revenues by 10% annually to USD 13 bn.

Big securitization plans: The government wants to raise between USD 1.4-10.1 bn USD annually starting this year and until 2030 by securitizing 20-25% of its USD revenues. Three potential scenarios have been drawn up that will see the government offer securitized bonds to investment banks and international investors, according to the report, without disclosing what these scenarios are. The securitization plan is one of several “urgent priorities” for the short term aimed at shoring up FX revenues.

Converting 38% of external debt into FDI: The government plans to form a ministerial committee to negotiate with a number of creditor countries and banks to swap public debt for stakes in some state-owned companies, as part of the state ownership policy, with the aim of converting 38% of Egypt's external debt to investments.

Real estate = a promising source of FX: The state aims to raise USD 2-3 bn in FX receipts through the sale of real estate units by setting up a company dedicated to leasing and selling properties in foreign currency. The plan will see the government selling properties to foreign investors in exchange for five-year residence permits — a proposal we first heard about when we talked to House Housing Committee Undersecretary Amin Massoud last month.

Efforts to drum up FX from Egyptian expats: The state will set up an investment fund with a capital of USD 1 bn that will offer “diversified securities” to Egyptian expats. The fund will manage a portfolio of state-owned assets and will be run by an unspecified “fund manager with distinguished international experience.” The state will also set up a separate USD 1 bn company to invest the savings of expats in a number of “priority” industrial and service sectors.

An optimistic look at the EGP’s future: The report cites projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that see the USD changing hands at an average of EGP 36.83 from 2024 through 2028. Authorities will continue to work towards a flexible exchange rate regime to close the gap between the official USD-EGP exchange rate and the parallel market rate to improve the economy’s resistance to external shocks, the report reads.

Longer bond maturities on the horizon: The report sees the government issuing bonds with tenors of 20-30 years to service external debt due in the current fiscal year and the next in a bid to extend its debt profile beyond short-term borrowing and to improve debt sustainability.

What’s next? The report will go to the National Dialogue within the coming two months for discussion, cabinet spokesperson Mohamed El Homsani told Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (Watch, runtime: 3:52).

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Banking

Egypt’s Banque Misr + National Bank of Egypt’s new CDs attract EGP 11 bn on first day of issuance

Savers line up for high yield CDs: Savers have put away some EGP 11 bn into the newly introduced high-yield certificates of deposit (CDs) during their first 24 hours of issuance on Friday, Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 15:59) on Saturday. Savers have poured some EGP 4 bn in CDs with Banque Misr and EGP 7 bn with the National Bank of Egypt’s (NBE) on the first day, El Etreby said.

BACKGROUND: The nation’s two largest banks introduced the record-high yield CDs with yields up to 27% over the weekend, allowing clients to buy the certificates online to be activated when banks go back to work today. The issuance came after CDs worth around EGP 500 bn introduced by the two banks in January 2023 began maturing this past Friday.

Buyers have two types of CDs to choose from: Saver can opt for the certificate with aone-time payment of 27% when their CDs mature in 12 months' time or the certificate with monthly interest payouts at a reduced 23.5% annualized rate. More details on the banks’ Facebook pages (here and here).

Sound smart: It remains unclear whether consumers lined up for the new CDs in the same way that they did the last time around. Customers brought up some EGP91bn worth of high-yield CDs in the first three days of them being brought to the market in January 2023. Given the CDs were offered first over the weekend and through online channels, we’ll have to wait until at least until after banks re-open today post-Christmas to have a better idea of how popular the CDs are.

El Etreby has big ambitions: “I expect savers to invest more than EGP 500bn in this new batch of CDs,” he said, pointing to the possibility of the two banks offering the CDs until February.

The macro backdrop: Unlike last year's CDs, when the 25% yield was significantly above the 18.7% urban annual inflation recorded a month before the CDs were announced, this time around the yields are nowhere near the 34.6% rate of inflation recorded in November. Folks with maturing CDs can also opt to hedge through gold, real estate, foreign currencies, T-bills, or by trading on EGX — all of which have generated much higher gains over the last year and have been seen in hindsight as missed chances.

So why would savers choose the recently issued CDs? The target audience for these CDs is pensioners, people with low investment awareness, or those who need a stable return with no risk, economist Ahmed Shawky told Enterprise.Shawky pointed to treasury bills as an alternative to CDs that have yields of 20-22% after tax and can be sold whenever easily and without enduring losses, but told us that — unlike CDs — they require a more experienced investor. Other investments like gold and real estate are also promising alternatives, but are more long-term and require a lot of liquidity, making them less attractive to investors who seek periodical returns to cover life expenses.

Egypt’s current account deficit narrowed in 1Q FY 2023-2024 thanks to an increase inSuez Canal and tourism revenues, according to central bank figures (pdf). The current account deficit narrowed almost 12% y-o-y to USD 2.8 bn, down from USD 3.2 bn during the same period last year. The balance of payments recorded a surplus of almost USD 229 mn in 1Q 2023-2024, less than half of the USD 523.5 mn recorded during the same period last year.

This is our second quarter in the green: This is our second quarterly BoP surplus in a rowand our third quarterly surplus since 2014, after we broke the deficit streak in 2Q of last year.

The breakdown:

#1- A dip in exports: Exports weakened nearly 20% y-o-y to USD 8.3 bn, triggered by oilexports more than halving during the quarter to USD 1.6 bn “on the back of the decrease in the exports of natural gas … and oil products … due to the decline of the exported quantities and the global prices.” Meanwhile, non-oil exports inched higher to USD 6.7 bn from USD 6.3 bn the year before.

#2- Remittances declined yet again: Remittancescontinued to fall, hitting their lowest levelsince FY 2016-17 amid the continued currency uncertainty. Remittances to Egypt recorded USD 4.5 bn for the quarter — a near 30% drop from last year’s USD 6.4 bn.

#3- FDI also saw a sizable drop: Foreign direct investments came in at USD 2.3 bn, down from last year’s USD 3.3 bn. The figure was marginally higher from the USD 2.1 bn figure recorded in 4Q FY 2022-2023.

Helping cushion the losses:

#1- Imports continued to decline: Imports fell for the sixth consecutive quarter to hit USD 16.3bn from USD 19.1 bn in 1Q 2022-2023, as both oil (24% y-o-y) — thanks to dip in crude oil imports triggered by rising global prices — and non-oil (13% y-o-y) — thanks to a dip in the imports of corn, organic and inorganic compounds — imports fell. This resulted in the trade deficit narrowing to USD 7.9 bn from USD 9.1 bn a year ago.

#2- Tourism revenues rose 9% y-o-yto USD 4.5 bn, driven by an increase in both touristnights and arrivals.

#3- Transport receipts also grew over 13% y-o-y to USD 3.5 bn, driven by an increase inSuez Canal transit receipts — which were up 19% y-o-y during the period — thanks to a jump in both the net tonnage of vessels passing and the number of vessels passing by.

#4- Portfolio flows: Investors continued to pull capital from financial assets, but at a much slower pace. Egypt recorded some USD 523 mn of net portfolio outflows during the quarter compared to USD 2.2 bn in the same quarter last year.

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Economy

Egypt’s weakening currency and supply shortages continue to strain the non-oil private sector in December as PMI remains effectively flat at 48.5

Business activity enters a fourth year of contraction: Non-oil privatesector activity contracted again in December as currency weakness and supply shortages dampened demand, according to S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (pdf) published on Thursday. The index inched up to 48.5 from 48.4 in November, which despite the marginal improvement, still remained below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction for the 37th straight month.

TL;DR: "The Egypt non-oil economy rounded off the year with the fastest drop in sales forseven months over December, suggesting that the drag on demand conditions from inflation has not lost any power,” S&P Global Economist David Owen said.

Businesses avoided steep price hikes in an attempt to sustain demand: December’sneworders saw their steepest drop since May. While companies incurred higher expenses and were forced to trim their output levels due to inflationary pressure, they “were less keen to raise prices in December [as] they still face a tricky balance between supporting demand or margins,” according to Owen.

On the plus side, new hires picked up: Staffing numbers in non-oil businesses in Decemberincreased for the first time since September in a bid to boost capacity to make up for outstanding business in each of the previous five months, the report said.

Business sentiment has also rebounded from November’s record low, as a larger number ofparticipants surveyed by S&P Global were optimistic that activity will pick up and economic challenges subside.

The story got the attention of the international press:Reuters.

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Economy

Egypt’s FX reserves inch up by USD 46 mn in December

Net foreign reserves record a slight increase in December, with just USD 46.4 mn added to the stockpile during the month, according to central bank data released Thursday. Reserves inched up to USD 35.22 bn compared to USD 35.17 bn at the end of November.

But on the plus side, it's the sixteenth consecutive month of increases, with FX reservesincreasing — albeit marginally — every month since September 2022. Our FX reserves took a hit in 2022 when the double-blow of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tightening global financial conditions triggered capital flight from Egypt and other emerging markets. Reserves fell almost USD 8 bn in the six months between February and August 2022 — USD 2 bn of which we’ve been able to recoup over the past 16 months.

Sound smart: Almost USD 30 bn of our reserves are now made up of deposits made by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Libya — accounting for over 85% of our reserves.

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A MESSAGE FROM HSBC

Data-driven supply chains: Trust, transparency, and the road to sustainability

The global push towards sustainability has reached the heart of business operations — the intricate web of connections known as supply chains. Where and how companies source materials, manufacture products, and deliver goods are no longer solely a matter of cost and efficiency. The environmental and social impact of every step is now under scrutiny, driven by stricter regulations, rising consumer awareness, and a collective desire for a greener future.

The digital key

The key to achieving sustainability within these complex networks lies in digitisation, specifically harnessing the power of data to illustrate every step of the process. This begins with the adoption of ISO 20022, a standardized approach to payment transaction data. This seemingly technical shift holds immense potential. Embedded within each transaction can be a wealth of information on sustainable practices, labor conditions, and resource utilization throughout the supply chain. Granular data can be like a map, revealing the peaks and pitfalls in terms of environmental and social impact.

The importance of this data goes beyond mere reporting. It paves the way for trust. Consumers and businesses alike are increasingly demanding assurances that their choices align with their values. Transparency is no longer optional — it's a competitive advantage. When a company can trace a product's journey from start to finish, backed by verifiable data, it earns trust and loyalty. The old proverb comes to mind — ‘“rust but verify.” Data empowers companies to not only claim sustainability, but prove it.

A wave of innovation

This is where the next wave of innovation is poised to emerge. Imagine using procurement cards that not only track your spending, but also capture the carbon footprint of your purchases. This level of insight empowers more informed decision-making, allowing companies to choose suppliers based on their commitment to sustainability practices. This shift aligns with the growing trend of generative AI solutions that are being explored by multinationals and shipping companies to dynamically identify and connect with sustainable suppliers.

However, data alone is not enough. The true power lies in its standardization and accessibility. Shared data formats and open platforms enable collaboration and collective action across industries. This not only simplifies analysis and assessment, but also fosters trust and accountability throughout the supply chain.

HSBC, with its global reach, deep expertise in emerging sustainability standards, and commitment to data-driven solutions, is uniquely positioned to guide businesses on this journey. We finance industries that significantly contribute to emissions, and we understand the urgency of acting upon it. Our goal is to be a partner in sustainability, empowering our customers to reduce their environmental impact and build resilient, responsible supply chains.

The path to a sustainable future lies not just in cleaner technologies and greener materials, but also in the invisible threads of data connecting every stage of the production and delivery process. By embracing digitisation, standardization, and transparency, we can unlock the true potential of our supply chains, transforming them from conduits of consumption to engines of positive change.

By Kyle Boag (LinkedIn), Regional Head of Global Payments Solutions, MENAT, HSBC.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

The economy dominated the airwaves until the early hours

A new gov’t report on the economy gave our nation’s talking heads a lot to talk about:Lamees El Hadidi spoke with the head of the Information and Decision Support Center Osama El Gohary about a report the center issued that laid out some ambitious targets for the Egyptian economy to reach by 2030 (watch, runtime: (watch, runtime: 20:34).

** In case you missed it, we’ve got a rundown of the report in the newswell, above.

The government doesn’t want to only securitize Suez Canal revenues: El Gohary explained that the report’s idea of securitizing 20-25% of the country’s USD revenues is not related only to the Suez Canal revenues, but rather to the country’s various dollar revenues, which may include remittances from Egyptians abroad — a practice that exists in other countries.

Lamees does not seem convinced: “The report is very ambitious, outlining unrealistic numbers, and doesn’tgive any indication as to how these numbers and goals will be reached … the bit on the exchange [rate] was comedic,” Lamees said during a conversation with economist Medhat Nafei on Saturday (watch, runtime: 3:04). Nafei told Lamees that “I don’t fully agree with the plan to [securitize 20-25% of the government’s USD revenues]. It will not solve the problem of our FX shortage, but simply push it back to future years.

2024 “may be the most difficult for us economically…whether for people’s pockets, lives, or the government itself,” due to foreign debts and the cost of servicing them for this year, El Hadidi said on her show. El Hadidi also contrasted the prime minister’s previous description of the USD crisis as “transient” with his more recent statements that the crisis is expected to continue until mid-2025.

Adib had a very Adib-esque suggestion of his own: Amr Adib said that Egypt needs “an economic war council that provides the president with the best advice” in light of economic difficulties we face (watch, runtime: 22:33).

Adib and El Hadidi confront anti-Syrian campaigns: Amr Adib and Lamees El Hadidi denounced social media campaigns supporting boycotts of local Syrian restaurants and companies. The economic crisis does not justify the abuse of Syrian residents — who number some 1.5 mn people in Egypt and contribute to the development of the local economy — the two presenters said, adding that no one would accept the racist treatment of any of the 10 mn Egyptians who live and work abroad, (watch, runtime: 14:34) and (watch, runtime: 5:32).

90% of Gaza’s population has been subjected to forced displacement, Mohamed Sherdy said on Al Hayah Al Youm, citing UNRWA data, (watch, runtime: 1:59). “Where will these people go after the end of the war,” Adib said on El Hekaya while discussing how Arab countries could rebuild Gaza (watch, runtime: 2:27).

Also on the airwaves last night:

  • President Abdel Fattah El Sisi attended Christmas Mass at the new capital’sCathedral of the Nativity, “an important signal that we are one country, one homeland without distinction between Muslims and Christians,” El Hadidi said on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 0:54). Masa’a DMC also had the story (watch, runtime: 5:02).
  • The nation’s hosts also discussed El Sisi’s visit to the new capital’s Olympic City on Friday to meet with the national football team at the 90k spectator Misr Stadium. The team is preparing to head to Côte d'Ivoire to compete in the African Nations Championship, which starts next Saturday. Masa’a DMC had the story (watch, runtime: 15:21).

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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Also on our Radar

AD Ports inks USD 3 mn initial agreement to run three cruise terminals in Egypt. PLUS: ex-NDP HQ complex, Russian EV factory, Tasweyat capital increase

INFRASTRUCTURE-

AD Ports to operate three tourism terminals: AD Ports has inked a USD 3 mn initialagreement with the Red Sea Port Authority to operate and manage three cruise terminals in Hurghada, Safaga, and Sharm El Sheikh, the group said in a statement on Friday. The two sides are expected to ink the final 15-year concession agreement in 1Q 2024. The Madbouly government is expected to ink more agreements with AD Ports over the coming month, Transport Minister Kamel El Wazir said, according to Al Mal.

HOSPITALITY-

UAE-led consortium set to develop NDP HQ: An Emirati-led consortium has been awarded the bid to develop the former HQ of the now-defunct National Democratic Party in Tahrir Square, Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) boss Ayman Soliman toldEl Hekaya’s Amr Adib on Saturday (watch, runtime:4:59). The agreement has not yet been finalized and Soliman provided no further details.

MANUFACTURING-

Tarboul is getting an EV factory: Russian EV manufacturer Concordia is setting up anelectric vehicle components factory in GV Investments’s Tarboul industrial project in Giza, Al Mal reported. The products will include a 60% local component quota and finished products will be exported to the Gulf and North Africa. Production is slated for 2H 2024.

FINANCIAL MARKETS-

Capital increase on the cards for EGX clearing company: The EGX is in discussions with local financial institutions to subscribe to an upcoming capital increase for its clearing and settlement company Tasweyat Clearing Services Company, EGX boss Ahmed El Sheikh told Al Borsa. The EGX is looking for ten banks to join the ownership structure of the company, which was initially established with a capital of EGP 100 mn.

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PLANET FINANCE

MBC makes it Tadawul debut today

MBC goes public on Tadawul today: The official trading on the regional broadcaster’sshares kicks off today on the Saudi exchange, after receiving bumper demand from institutional and retail investors for its SAR 831 mn (USD 222 mn) initial public offering, according to a Tadawul regulatory filing yesterday.

MBC has priced its shares at the top of the range at SAR 25 a piece, valuing the company atSAR 8.3 bn. The institutional offering, which wrapped on 6 December, drew SAR 54.5 bn (USD 14.5 bn) of orders and closed 66x oversubscribed, while the retail offering was 18x oversubscribed. Ninety percent of the shares were offered to institutions, while 10% were handed to individual buyers.

Advisors: HSBC Saudi Arabia is quarterbacking the transaction as lead manager, JP MorganSaudi Arabia, SNB Capital, along with HSBC are acting as joint financial advisors, bookrunners, and underwriters.

EGX30

25,350

-0.2% (YTD: +1.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.83

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

19.25% deposit

20.25% lending

Tadawul

12,285

+1.2% (YTD: +2.7%)

ADX

9,661

+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)

DFM

4,088

0.0% (YTD: +0.7%)

S&P 500

4,697

+0.2% (YTD: -1.5%)

FTSE 100

7,690

-0.4% (YTD: -0.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,464

-0.2% (YTD: -1.3%)

Brent crude

USD 78.76

+1.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.89

+2.6%

Gold

USD 2,049.80

0.0%

BTC

USD 44,227.22

+0.6% (YTD: +4.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.2% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.5 bn (5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 1.8% YTD.

In the green: B Investments (+4.1%), GB Corp (+2.4%) and Palm Hills Development (+1.7%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-2.8%), Eastern Company (-2.3%) and E-Finance (-2.2%).

Asian markets are flirting with positive territory in early trading. Futures suggest the Dow will open in the red at the opening bell in New York this morning, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq in the green. European shares look set for a strong open.

9

Edtech startup Orcas has sold to Kuwait’s Baims — Orcas CEO Hossam Taher talks us through what it means

Kuwaiti edtech company Baims has acquired 100% of Egyptian edtech startupOrcas, the companies announced in a statement (pdf) yesterday without disclosing the value of the agreement. The acquisition, which Orcas CEO and co-founder Hossam Taher (My Morning Routine) — now the consolidated company’s chief strategy officer — described as a “big transaction,” provides Orcas shareholders with significant upside potential, Taher told Enterprise. We had a chat with Taher to break down the strategic acquisition, the consolidated company’s future plans, and the landscape for the edtech sector in the region.

Orcas at a glance: Founded in 2019, Orcas started out small, with the entire team fitting into a single office at the GrEEK Campus in downtown Cairo, Taher told us. Apart from support from investors, the Egyptian market itself contributed to their ability to go from that to exiting after only a handful of years. Edtech startups operate within what Taher described as a matrix that covers various learning stages — whether K-12, university, or lifelong learning — and various modes of delivery — whether one-to-one, one-to-many, or asynchronous, not to mention on and offline. Orcas’ specialty is one-to-one learning for the K-12 stage, but it expanded beyond that core focus to grow the business.

Why Egypt and edtech go together: With a vast population, a young median age,demographic variety, and a challenging and competitive job market, Egypt serves as an ideal starting point for any edtech company, Taher said. The challenges an edtech company founded elsewhere in the world might face are likely to be magnified due to these traits in the Egyptian market. But on the flipside, the risk for businesses and investors is lower, especially with the weakened currency.

How the Baims acquisition came to be: Amid the ongoing economic challenges in Egypt, Orcas began venturing beyond our borders to boost its business. The company started off by dipping its toes in the GCC market, offering their services in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This move allowed the company to maintain stability, but it was ultimately after growth, Taher told Enterprise. Orcas held a workshop in Dubai with a number of other edtech companies as it looked to grow into a holding group with different brand verticals. There was instant chemistry with Baims, because together, they ticked many of the boxes of the matrix, Taher said.

Synergy at first sight: While Orcas focuses on one-to-one classes for K-12 students, Baimsprimarily offers asynchronous learning for university students. And while Baims operated in regional markets Orcas had not entered yet — such as Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait — Orcas held the key to Egypt, the largest market in the region. After months of negotiations, the two companies decided to become one, signing the acquisition agreement in November 2023.

The post-acquisition structure: Baims fully acquired Orcas and the talent coming from both teamshas been consolidated and integrated together, but the two companies will still keep their brands and products separate. Although this structure may be revisited in the future, the two sides agreed that, for the time being, it is the best way to leverage the existing network, client base, and experience each had already accumulated, Taher told us. The difference is that now, both brands will be offering their services throughout Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan. Orcas co-founder Amira El-Gharib (LinkedIn), who is now the consolidated company’s chief operations officer, is playing a key role in “setting up an organizational structure that maximizes shared knowledge and experience.”

What’s next for the new Baims? In terms of strategy, the company is focusing first andforemost on “acing the integration” process, maximizing revenue synergies, and creating packages out of their products that would offer their clients an effective “holistic learning experience,” Taher said. They are also focusing on creating new income streams for teachers hired locally from the various markets they’re in, as well as expanding their operations team with local talent.

But they’ve also been looking beyond that: The longer term goal is “not just expanding ourreach, [but] redefining the edtech landscape in MENA,” Baims CEO Yousef Alhusaini said. Eventually, they aim to grow beyond the region, Taher said. While it may be too soon to tell where this expansion will take them, Southeast Asia and Latin America are on the list of potential markets.

The message Orcas wants to send with the acquisition? There’s plenty of hope for localstartups: Although ongoing macroeconomic headwinds are a source of increasing pressure for entrepreneurs in Egypt, the challenges can be leveraged as advantages, Taher told us. Egypt offers a wide pool of highly qualified talent that is cost efficient, while operations can run at a fraction of the cost of the same operations run abroad. While Taher sees plenty of space for startups to capitalize on these factors, investors also need to see the Egypt angle, he told us. The low-cost, low-risk nature of the Egyptian market, coupled with the high demand for education, means the startups they invest in will eventually take their experience beyond the Egyptian market, and make the venture worth their while.

And while the edtech landscape is changing, there’s always growth momentum: The initialCovid-19 momentum for edtech is likely waning — and edtech’s growth rate is slowing from where it was in 2019-2022 — the appetite for online and digital learning has prevailed. In 2019, less than 1% of the volume of Orcas’ work was online, while today, 70% are between hybrid and fully online. Hybrid learning will likely be the future of education, after the world was suddenly thrown into online learning as a result of covid lockdowns, which will always create a space for edtech companies to thrive in, Taher said.

AI will also likely be a key fixture of edtech moving forward, Taher expects. Prior to theacquisition, both Orcas and Baims dabbled with the technology, with Orcas employing a tool using data to help teachers and tutors build lesson plans tailored to specific students, while Baims worked with an AI tutor that students could ask questions and receive help from. Today, the consolidated company is developing a tool to help students in Saudi Arabia train for the kingdom’s standardized tests and predict their scores.

In the image above from left to right:Bader AlRasheed (Baims Co-Founder) Amira El Gharib (Orcas Co-Founder) Shams Adly (Orcas CMO) Yousef AlHusaini (Baims Co-Founder) Hossam Taher (Orcas Co-Founder) Mohammed Khalaf (Orcas CTO).


2024

JANUARY

9 January (Tuesday): B Investments’ general assembly (pdf) to look into capital increase ahead of Orascom Financial Holding (OFH) acquisition.

17 January (Wednesday): A delegation of Egyptian companies to visit Istanbul.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution Day / Police Day (national holiday).

FEBRUARY

1 February (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

1 February (Thursday): OPEC+ oil market monitoring online meeting.

11 February (Sunday): Deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Programin El Gouna.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline to bid for 23 blocks in an international oil and gas tender.

MARCH

20 March (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

28 March (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC) (national holiday).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC) (national holiday).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC) (national holiday).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (national holiday).

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

January 2024: The Red Sea Ports Authority is set to finalize an agreement with the Abu Dhabi Ports Group for the operation and maintenance of the tourist passenger terminal in the Sharm El Sheikh Sea Port.

Q1 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

1H 2024: The European Union is set to hold an investment conference in Egypt during spring.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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