Government raises the prices at the pumps for the first time in 2025

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What We're Tracking Today

EU gives Egypt greenlight to join EUR 95.5 bn Horizon Europe research program

Good morning, folks, and welcome to what already seems like another busy week in local business news. In today’s issue, we’ve got news that inflation sped up in March, S&P Global Ratings cut our credit outlook, big ticket manufacturing projects in the pipeline, and — as you’ve probably heard a hundred times already — price hikes at the gas station.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi investments on the horizon? Some 100 Saudi investors and members of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council led by the Federation of Saudi Chambers landed in Cairo yesterday to kick off a visit aimed at deepening investment ties between the Kingdom and Egypt, Saudi state news agency SPA reports.

On the agenda: The Saudi delegation will participate in a Saudi-Egyptian investment forum, hold B2B meetings, conduct site visits to major projects, and meet with cabinet members and company representatives. Talks will spotlight prospects across different industries, including manufacturing, real estate, tourism, and trade zones.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s set to be a cloudy day in Cairo today, with a high of 23°C, a low of 15°C, and the chance of light rain, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s much the same in Alexandria, with cloudy skies, a high of 21°C, a low of 13°C, and the chance of light to moderate rain and possibly thunder.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt is set to officially join the EU’s research and innovation funding program Horizon Europe in November, following negotiations between the country and the European Commission successfully wrapping up, the EU’s executive arm said in a statement. Egypt is now the only second African nation to join the program, following in the footsteps of Tunisia.

Horizon Europe is an EU research and innovation program with a budget of EUR 95.5 bn — yes, bn not mn — running from 2021 to 2027. The program tackles global challenges like climate change, health crises, and more, by funding research and promoting cross-country and -continent collaboration.

Egyptian companies, universities, public bodies, and other entities can apply for funding starting now, with the transitional period running until the signing enabling Egyptian entities to respond to budget calls.

“Egypt’s association to Horizon Europe will drive progress in key sectors like energy, food security, and digital transition, creating new opportunities for innovation,” said European Commissioner for Startups, Research, and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva.

Check out our full calendar on the web| for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The country’s largest ever housing unit offering will kick off Tuesday, with the Housing Ministry offering up the first 35k units of the 261k offering, according to a ministry statement. The Housing and Development Bank will publish unit specs, locations, and terms through its reservation portal.

DATA POINT-

Total interbank market transactions surpassed the USD 3.5 bn mark last week, a banking source told EnterpriseAM — a significant jump from the USD 750 mn-1.2 bn the market usually sees changing hands each week. Trump’s escalation of the trade war saw stocks and currencies at home and abroad jump and fall during an unpredictable and volatile week for the markets, with foreign investors both exiting and re-entering Egypt’s debt market at various points throughout the week.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The global tariff war is continuing to lead the news cycle across the global press, with both the business and national papers focusing on US President Donald Trump’s decision to spare smartphones, laptops, chips, and other electronics from his sweeping new tariff regime. The US Customs and Border Protection authority on Friday published a bulletin, listing all the products that will be “excluded from the reciprocal tariffs.” The carveout covers USD 390 bn worth of US imports in 2024 — including some USD 101 bn from China — shielding devices that aren’t manufactured in the US from the 10% global tariff and the much steeper 125% levy on Chinese goods. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | Financial Times)

While a little closer to home, the US and Iran are back at the negotiating table. Tehran and Washington held their highest-level indirect talks in years on Saturday in Oman, marking a potential shift in a long-running standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. Both sides described the two-hour session — mediated by Omani officials — as “constructive” and agreed to resume talks next weekend. US envoy Steven Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly discussed a framework for a possible agreement aimed at scaling back Iran’s uranium enrichment activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief. (Financial Times | Reuters | Axios | AP | CNN | New York TImes)

From April 11–13, 2025, Somabay, Egypt becomes a global stage of artistry and athleticism as the prestigious World Aquatics Artistic Swimming World Cup welcomes 240+ elite athletes from 30+ countries. This international showcase features breathtaking routines, dazzling lifts, and world-class creativity — set against the stunning Red Sea coastline.

Egypt hikes vehicle fuel prices by up to 14.8%

Prices at the pumps are going up for the first time in 2025, after the Oil Ministry’s fuel pricing committee raised fuel prices by 11.8-14.8% over the weekend, it said in a statement. The government last hiked prices at the gas station back in October 2024, when it hiked prices by up to 17.4% for some types of fuel.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

A look at the new prices at the gas station:

95-Octane now costs EGP 19.00 per liter, up 11.8% from EGP 17.00;
92-Octane rose to EGP 17.25 per liter, up 13.1% from EGP 15.25;
80-Octane reached EGP 15.75 per liter, up 14.5% from EGP 13.75;
Diesel and kerosene now cost EGP 15.50 per liter, up 14.8% from EGP 13.50;
Drivers of natural gas-powered vehicles were spared the hike, with the committee deciding to leave prices unchanged for them at the pump.

The price for a 12.5-kg butane gas cylinder also rose, increasing to EGP 200, up 33.3% from 150 EGP, while the commercial cylinder now costs EGP 400, up 33.3% from EGP 300.

Industrial mazut also saw a hike, with mazut supplied to most industrial sectors rising 10.5% to EGP 10.5k per ton. But there was good news for the food industry and electricity generation, with mazut prices for them kept at the same levels as before.

The statement made no mention of whether household natural gas prices were adjusted or left unchanged.

THE AFTERMATH-

Users of public transport in the capital are also going to feel the pinch, with fare hikes announced by Cairo Governorate :

Public bus fares rose to EGP 10 up from EGP 9 for regular buses and EGP 20 up from EGP 17 for air-conditioned vehicles,
White taxi meters in Cairo will now start at EGP 11.5, up from EGP 10.5 and rising to EGP 2.25 per km.
Minibus travel in Cairo will now cost EGP 16 up from EGP 14, and EGP 19 up from EGP 17 for air-conditioned vehicles.

Despite the cut in subsidies, the state still spends EGP 366 mn per day and EGP 11 bn a month on fuel subsidies, according to a separate statement from the ministry. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly reiterated as early as recently month the country’s intention to have energy prices reach cost recovery levels by the end of the year by phasing out all fuel subsidies in line with its structural reform agenda with the International Monetary Fund.

But some think the IMF may agree to slow the pace of energy reform, including Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed, who told us that getting fuel prices up to cost recovery levels by end of the year would cause “drastic and rapid movements” in inflation. Although the details of the discussions are still mostly unknown, Madbouly said in a presser near the end of last year that the two sides were negotiating “how we can postpone some of the targets so that we do not put pressure on the citizens in the coming period.”

Subsidy cut slowdown or not, we shouldn’t see any more fuel price hikes for the next six months, the Oil Ministry confirmed.

But shouldn’t a decrease in global oil prices be reflected at the pumps? Although Brent crude futures are currently at USD 64.76 per barrel, down 13.4% over the month, the decision to hike prices will help the government avoid budget strain from previous oil import contracts signed before the current dip in global prices, two government officials told EnterpriseAM. The government moved quickly to secure new low-price contracts, anticipating US-China trade tensions and other global uncertainties to impact markets.

Analysts we spoke to all agreed that the move will add to inflationary pressures — and even push up the headline figure. Banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal forecast the move to have direct and indirect impact that could see headline inflation reaching 15.5%, while Zilla Capital’s Aya Zoheir expects the decision to push April’s inflation to reading to the 14% mark. Some, including economist Mona Bedair, argued that although the “phased adjustment of domestic energy prices may introduce mild inflationary pressures ahead, these factors do not overshadow the broader trend of easing domestic inflation.”

Unlike most other goods or commodities, an increase in fuel prices doesn’t just increase the price at the gas station, but also in the souq, the supermarket, and for any goods that need to be transported. HC Brokerage’s Equity Research Head Nemat Choucri told us that the diesel price hike would increase food transportation costs and in turn food and beverage prices, while the mazut price increases “would increase the production cost for the industrial sector and hence would lead to higher prices of industrial products.”

Fuel price hikes “will add a new layer of complexity to the Monetary Policy Committee’s

[interest rate] decision,” economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us, adding that “this increase is expected to lead to higher inflation readings in the coming months, which may prompt the central bank to adopt a more conservative approach and hold off on cutting interest rates.”

The international press also took note of the hike: Reuters

Egypt’s inflation picks up in March to 13.6%, snapping months-long downward trend

Annual headline urban inflation reversed its downward trajectory to hit 13.6% in March, marking an 0.8 percentage point increase from the 12.8% recorded in February, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. This figure ends a four month-long downward trend. On a monthly basis, inflation edged up by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%.

Food and beverage price inflation drove the trend, with segment — the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation — rising 2.9 percentage points to 6.6% in March. “This came on the back of rises in bread and cereals, vegetables, and in particular fruits inflation which surged to a record high of 88.0% y-o-y,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston wrote. Economist Hany Abou El Fotouh, economist Mona Bedair, and HC Securities’ Heba Mounir similarly highlighted fruit prices during Ramadan as a driver of the increase in comments to EnterpriseAM.

While headline inflation was up, annual core inflation fell in March, with the reading — which excludes volatile items like food and fuel — dropping 0.8 percentage points from the month before to 9.4% y-o-y, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, core inflation stood at 0.9%, down from 1.6% the month before.

The fall in core inflation gives “hope that these pressures are temporary,” Abou El Fotouh told us. Bedair also highlighted the importance of the dip in core inflation, telling us that the core inflation dipping below 10% for the first time since February 2022 is “a clear signal that underlying pressures are moderating.”

Most analysts told us that they expect inflation to continue rising modestly into April, including Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed, who pencilled a provisional 14.5% headline rate for the month, while others were yet to settle on a number they were willing to share.

Zooming out, inflation still seems to be on a broadly downward trajectory, with upcoming mild inflationary pressures ahead — be it fuel price hikes or related to currency exchange depreciation — not able to “overshadow the broader trend of easing domestic inflation,” Bedair said. “However, global fluctuations remain a gateway to inflationary risks and currency fluctuations,” Ahmed and other analysts warned.

So, what does this mean for interest rates? With the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting to decide interest rates set to take place this week, economists, analysts and members of the business community are trying to get a read on how March’s inflation data could influence their decision. Analysts and economists we’ve spoken to so far still mostly see the bank cutting — albeit with a more conservative approach as it assesses the mild uptick in inflation, the effect of recently announced fuel price hikes, and what Trump’s unpredictable trade war may have in store for Egypt. We’ll have more insights from analysts and economists later in the week in our interest rate poll — watch this space.

Some corners of the global press also picked up the story: Bloomberg | Reuters

S&P trims Egypt’s credit outlook to stable, Fitch reaffirms stable outlook

S&P trimmed Egypt’s credit outlook to stable, bringing the rating agency's forecast in line with Fitch Ratings, which reaffirmed its stable outlook over the weekend. S&P Global Ratings revised Egypt’s outlook to stable from positive and maintained its B-/B rating — six notches into junk territory — for Egypt’s long- and short-term local and foreign currency debt, it said in a disclosure. The ratings agency pointed to high debt-servicing costs and a still-vulnerable external position amid heightened global market volatility and geopolitical risk.

Fitch Ratings also maintained its stable outlook for the country’s credit rating at B — five notches into junk territory —citing “weak public finances, including exceptionally high debt interest/revenue, sizeable external financing needs and volatile commercial financing flows,” it said in a commentary over the weekend.

REMEMBER- S&P upgraded our outlook from stable to positive in March 2024 shortly following the float of the EGP, citing “significant steps” taken by authorities to address the country’s macroeconomic imbalances as well as FX inflows. Afterwards, it maintained the positive outlook and rating in October. Fitch ratings on the other hand upgraded our credit rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ with a stable outlook last November — for the first time since 2019 — citing FX inflows from the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement, our expanded USD 8 bn IMF program, and the EU’s EUR 7.4 bn aid package, alongside better structural reforms.

What changed: S&P’s revision reflects persistent fiscal and external deficits, elevated borrowing needs, and high debt-sevicing costs — government interest payments are projected to consume 58% of revenues in the fiscal year 2024-2025, declining only gradually to 45% by FY 2027-28 — all of which exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Although keeping its assessment the same, Fitch echoed the same concern, projecting that “government debt interest/revenue will peak near 61% in FY26, before falling to 38% in FY29.”

The concern isn’t just fiscal: S&P flagged a potential pullback by foreign portfolio investors amid tightening global financial conditions, warning that “risk-off positions” could pressure the EGP bond market.

ICYMI- Debt markets saw outflows last week after the scope of the Trump tariff war became clear — as some investors opted to lock in gains and move to cash or other less-risky assets in a time of uncertainty.

Still, both agencies acknowledged progress on structural reforms: While the global financial context remains turbulent, S&P noted Egypt has pushed ahead with meaningful policy shifts throughout the previous year, saying “the foreign currency market has largely been driven by market forces, supporting competitiveness and an improvement in economic growth.” Fitch echoed this sentiment, stating that “greater exchange rate flexibility has been maintained since the March 2024 depreciation of the official rate, with no re-emergence of FX backlogs or a significant differential with the parallel market rate.”

The two were in agreement that the 10% US tariff on Egyptian exports is unlikely to cause major disruption: “Egypt’s goods export exposure to the US is relatively low,” S&P said, with exports making up “less than 6% of goods exports and less than 0.5% of GDP” in 2023. Similarly, Fitch pointed out that the country “has relatively limited direct exposure to US tariffs and cuts in US economic aid.” The new tariff could affect a narrow band of Egypt’s exports — including textiles, carpets, iron and steel, vegetables, and glass — but is expected to have a limited macroeconomic impact.

Some think we could even stand to gain from it: Sources we spoke to believe the tariffs could present an unexpected chance for Egypt’s industrial base, particularly in manufacturing, as firms seek to sidestep higher duties by relocating operations to lower-tariff countries like Egypt. We have more on this in last week’s Inside Industry, which you can check out here.

The bigger concern is global contagion: “Secondary effects of tariff barriers on other countries globally, alongside market volatility, will likely have a downward impact on global financing conditions, as well as those in emerging markets like Egypt,” S&P warned. A dip in global energy prices should provide some relief though, given Egypt’s position as a net energy importer.

An upgrade could still be in the cards: S&P said it could raise Egypt’s rating if “net government or external debt positions improve faster than we currently expect,” naming higher FDI, state asset sales, and robust growth as some of the ways the Madbouly government could improve its debt position. Fitch also said it could upgrade our rating if there is “further reduction in external vulnerabilities” and “lower debt issuance costs and fiscal consolidation.”

A downgrade is also very much possible if reform momentum slips: Both agencies warned that any sign the government is backtracking on macroeconomic reforms — especially exchange rate flexibility — or allowing foreign currency shortages to re-emerge could trigger a negative rating action. S&P also flagged debt distress as a risk, noting a downgrade could happen “if the elevated interest costs prompt the government to undertake a debt exchange that we consider to be distressed.” Meanwhile, Fitch flagged “further escalation of regional conflict… with a larger negative spill-over impact on tourism, Suez Canal receipts, investor sentiment,” as potential negative triggers.

Private sector leads Egypt’s wheat imports in 1Q 2025 as state purchases plummet

Private companies accounted for 72% of Egypt’s wheat imports in 1Q 2025, while the government secured the remaining 28%, according to data from the General Organization for Export and Import Control seen by EnterpriseAM. The private sector imported around 2.0 mn tons during the quarter, up from 1.2 mn tons in the same period last year, while the government's wheat imports fell over 61% y-o-y to reach around 800k tons. The Madbouly government’s wheat imports in 1Q 2025 marked the lowest quarterly level on record, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

The full picture: Total wheat imports for the quarter stood at 2.8 mn tons, down 11.3% y-o-y. However, the figure remains slightly above the five-year quarterly average of 2.7 mn tons.

Regional instability is creating fresh demand for flour exports from Egypt, and the local market is responding by bringing in more wheat to produce flour, Egyptian Swiss Group General Manager Ahmed Elsebaie told EnterpriseAM. He added that more orders are expected to come in during the coming months. A local flour exporter similarly attributed the surge in private sector wheat imports to an improved export window for flour amid rising conflict in nearby markets such as Palestine and Sudan, in comments to EnterpriseAM.

Egypt’s flour exports are expected to rise 30% y-o-y to 1.7 mn tons by the end of 2025, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture report seen by EnterpriseAM. Exports doubled y-o-y in 2024, with most of Egypt’s flour exports going to African markets, with Sudan alone accounting for around 60% of annual contracts, followed by Eritrea, Somalia, Yemen, and Djibouti. Flour exports have grown more than 11x over the past decade, reaching 1.3 mn tons in 2024 and bringing in USD 450 mn, according to data from the Food Export Council.

Egypt’s improved FX position and relatively stable global wheat prices have encouraged private sector players to increase their purchases and build reserves, wheat and vegetable oils supplier Egyptian Australian Company Managing Director Ali Ramadan said. The instability in the region is impacting businesses, so companies are hedging against any future shocks like the 2023 wheat shortage that resulted in the emergence of a black market, he added.

Mohamed Abdallah, CEO of Vodafone Egypt, recognized for leadership excellence at the CEO Today Middle East Awards

Mohamed Abdallah, CEO of Vodafone Egypt, was recognized for both CEO Excellence and Company of the Year in Telecommunications by the CEO Today Middle East Awards 2025. He continues to lead Vodafone Egypt with a strategy that positions it as a telecom company that delivers value and has a positive impact on people’s everyday lives.

Under his leadership, Vodafone Egypt has evolved beyond a typical telecom company into a leading digital enabler of change in Egyptian society. The company is rolling out digital platforms that touch nearly every aspect of life — from financial inclusion and healthtech, to education and small business empowerment.

This prestigious award adds to list of awards recently acquired by Vodafone Egypt, including being named the #1 Best Place to Work for Women in Egypt and earning a Gold Award for Excellence in Inclusion, Equity, and Diversity. Together, these recognitions show that the company is leading the market not only in achieving exceptional results, but also in creating an inclusive workplace.

Egypt’s Minya, Fayoum are getting new textile industrial zones that could bring in USD 3 bn in investment

The Madbouly government has plans to set up two integrated textile industrial zones in Minya and Fayoum at a total cost of EGP 27 bn, Industry and Transport Minister Kamel El Wazir announced yesterday. The two zones are expected to bring in some USD 3 bn in local and foreign investment.

The projects will be developed in partnership with the private sector, with each zone — each covering 5.5 mn sqm — to be developed through the industrial developer system, which allows private companies to develop land for industrial use and take care of its management, operations, and marketing.

The zone in Minya will be the first specialized textile hub in Upper Egypt, coming in with an investment cost of EGP 12 bn and set to create around 250k direct and indirect jobs. It is expected to bring in USD 1.5 bn in domestic and foreign investment once fully operational. El Wazir said that the zone will revive Minya’s textile industry.

Investors are already lining up for the Minya project, with Garment Export Council Chairman and Giza Spinning and Weaving CEO Fadel Marzouk previously telling Al Arabiya before the zone was properly announced that it had already attracted the interest of more than ten Chinese and Turkish companies willing to commit investments to the project this year.

What about the Fayoum zone? The Northern Fayoum zone will cost EGP 15 bn and aims to create 150k jobs and attract USD 1.5 bn in investment when fully operational. The zones will include a fully integrated textile manufacturing chain, ranging from spinning, weaving, and dyeing to ready-made garments and home textiles.

The two zones will house a lot more than just industry, with the projects set to include service and logistics zones, industrial schools specializing in textile manufacturing, healthcare facilities, exhibitions, research hubs, marketing centers, and investor service centers.

The government will help fast-track the projects by facilitating the implementation process to ensure quick implementation and operation, aiming to advance its plan to increase Egypt’s textile exports from USD 2.8 bn to USD 11.5 bn within five years.

Ghada Waly, Ismail Mansour join Palm Hills’ board

Palm Hills Developments elected a new board of directors for a three-year term after shareholders voted at the company's ordinary general assembly meeting last week, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf).

Those at the helm are retaining their roles — Yasseen Mansour is staying on board as the company’s chairman and managing director, while Mohamed Mansour has been reappointed as vice chairman.

New on board: UNODC Executive Director and former Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Waly (LinkedIn) has been appointed as an independent non-executive board member. Meanwhile, Ismail Mansour is joining as a board member representing El Mansour & El Maghraby Investment and Development.

The company is putting together fresh funds for Casa Cook expansion with Banque Misr: The board greenlit a long-term syndicated loan of up to EGP 1.3 bn for its subsidiary Middle East for Real Estate and Tourism Investment to be co-financed with Banque Misr, according to a separate EGX disclosure (pdf). The funds will go into financing the addition of 200 rooms at the Casa Cook hotel in Hacienda White on the North Coast.

Fuel price hikes led the conversation across the channels

Fuel price hikes dominated the airwaves last night, following the government’s latest move to raise prices at the pump. Oil Ministry spokesperson Moataz Atef told Lamees El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 10:09) that the decision factored in global oil prices, import ratios, production costs, and the exchange rate.

The hike will be felt by transport costs, which are set for 8-9.5% increase, Alexandria Chamber of Commerce’s land transport division head Mansour El Breik told El Hadidi over the phone (watch, runtime: 4:04).

But the impact on home appliances is expected to be limited, Federation of Egyptian Industries’ electrical appliances division head Hassan Mabrouk told El Hadidi, describing any forthcoming price increase as “very minimal” (watch, runtime: 2:46).

But even with the increase in fuel prices, some goods including eggs and poultry are getting cheaper, Poultry Producers Union Vice Chairman Tharwat El Zeiny told El Hadidi in a phone interview (watch, runtime: 5:01). El Zeiny attributed the decline in prices to improved supply.

Unsubsidized bread prices are expected to rise 25%, Bakeries Division head Abdullah Ghorab told Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 6:19). However, the price of subsidized bread will remain unchanged, Supply Ministry undersecretary Nasser Thabet told Azza Moustafa on her show Al Sa’aa Al Sadesa’ (watch, runtime: 7:33).

Atef also reiterated the government’s position that there will be no power outages next sumer, a message that had was conveyed on Thursday during Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s most recent presser (watch, runtime: 1:06)

It wasn’t just Lamees who covered the price hike, as the the topic got airtime across the networks, including on Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 4:03), Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 2:19), and El Hekayah (watch, runtime: 5:24).

ALSO ON THE AIRWAVES- “We could lose part of our market share in Europe, because Asian [companies] will run to Europe to escape the pressure of the US tariffs,” Turkish-Egyptian clothing manufacturing firm T&C Garments Chairman Magdy Tolba told Cairo Weekend’s Zeina Soufan (watch, runtime: 16:04). Tolba explained that Egypt’s status quo can’t afford to be more competitive than Europe in regards to attracting Asian investors, therefore, “we must work really hard” on boosting our exports to US markets, Tolba added. He outlined what needs to be done in three points; “expanding our capacity, upgrading our industries, and adjusting trade agreements,” Tolba said, referring to Qualified Industrial Zone (QIZ) agreement’s 10.5% Israeli-component requirement, which the government has been long negotiating with the US for a lower percentage.

US’ Progress Rail inks USD 235 mn worth of modernization, spare part, technical support agreements. PLUS: CMA CGM, Emarat Misr

TRANSPORT-

Egyptian National Railways signed three contracts worth over USD 235 mn with US-based Progress Rail to upgrade and maintain parts of the country’s locomotive fleet, according to a statement from the Transport Ministry, another from the US Embassy in Cairo, and a statement from Progress Rail. The agreement with the Caterpillar subsidiary covers the refurbishment of 100 diesel-electric locomotives at a cost of USD 185 mn, a USD 42 mn contract to supply spare parts for 141 units over 15 years, and a USD 5 mn technical support agreement for the same units over five years, with an option to extend for another five.

We knew this was coming: The cabinet approved the transaction during one of its weekly meetings late last month.

LOGISTICS-

French shipping giant CMA CGM secured a 35% stake in the October Dry Port under a strategic partnership it signed with the port, according to a Transport Ministry statement. The partnership aims to boost the port’s operations, improve cargo flow, and provide integrated logistics services.

BACKGROUND- The October Dry Port Company (ODP) is setting up the USD 60 mn Sixth of October dry port under a build-operate-transfer structure. ODP is a JV that is 70% owned by Elsewedy Electric, 20% held by SLP for Logistic Properties, and 10% by DB Schenker Egypt — it remains unclear whose stake CMA CGM took over.

What they said: “The arrival of CMA CGM as a partner represents a major step towards consolidating the October Dry Port's position as a national and regional logistics hub,” said Elsewedy Electric CEO Ahmed Elsewedy. “This agreement strengthens Egypt's position as a regional logistics hub and supports national goals to promote industrial growth, sustainable development, and its integration into global trade.”

ENERGY-

Emarat Misr plans to roll out ten fueling and service stations across the country, according to an Oil Ministry statement. The new stations will add to the company’s portfolio of 17 stations nationwide.

DIPLOMACY-

Egypt and Hungary signed an agreement to expand cooperation across 26 sectors over the weekend during the Egyptian-Hungarian Joint Committee, according to a statement from the Planning and International Cooperation Ministry. The sectors include trade, investment, military production, and customs. Both nations also signed an MoU to reduce industrial pollution, protect the environment, and exchange knowledge. The Hungarian side highlighted potential partnerships between the two countries in the fields of green hydrogen, food security, ICT, and AI.

Tariff troubles loom over US March inflation relief

US inflation beats expectations, but tariff impact yet to surface: The US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which excludes food and energy — rose 2.8% y-o-y, marking its lowest annual increase since March 2021, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the figures outperformed Wall Street’s 3% forecast, economists caution that impending tariffs could soon reverse the trend.

Fed’s target still distant: Headline inflation has come down significantly to 2.4% from its 9.1% peak in June 2022. However, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target.

Not out of the woods yet: “The good news of an inflation soft print in March needs to be taken with a grain of salt,” Fwdbonds’ chief economist Christopher Rupkey told Reuters, pointing to the intensifying trade war with China. Mark Zandi of Moody’s seconded the notion, telling CNBC that the CPI data “means nothing” because it does not yet reflect recent tariff activity.

Why the delay? The full impact of tariffs hasn’t yet filtered through, as firms had stockpiled imports in early 2025 to get ahead of tariff hikes, Fitch Ratings’ Brian Coulton told CNN.

What are we looking at? Tariffs could push inflation up to 4% — double the Fed’s target — by year-end, CNBC reports, citing projections from Capital Economics and Vanguard. Analysts remain divided on whether this will be a temporary spike or a more persistent trend.

Uncertainty is the key word: Analysts are changing their projections continuously, as the tariff situation remains fluid, with little indicators on where things will stand once the dust settles. Trump recently postponed some country-specific tariffs for 90 days pending trade negotiations, but still maintained a 10% blanket levy on all imports as well as the steep 145% tariff (so far) on Chinese imports. The US administration also spared smartphones, laptops, chips, and other electronics from the sweeping new tariff regime in a bid to ease impact on consumer prices, a decision which covers USD 390 bn worth of US imports in 2024 — including some USD 101 bn from China.

Trump is not backing down on cuts: Despite policy volatility, Trump continues to wage his campaign on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. While central bankers remain cautious, markets anticipate three to four rate cuts by year-end, with the first expected in June. “Going forward the Fed is likely to face a difficult trade-off as tariff driven price increases start to feed through to the inflation data and activity remains soft,” CNBC quotes Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Kay Haigh as saying.

EGX30	30,811	+2.4% (YTD: +3.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 51.27	Sell 51.41
USD (CIB)	Buy 51.28	Sell 51.38
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	11,503	+3.7% (YTD: -4.4%)
ADX	9,158	+0.4% (YTD: -2.8%)
DFM	4,966	-0.2% (YTD: -3.7%)
S&P 500	5,363	+1.8% (YTD: -8.8%)
FTSE 100	7,964	+0.6% (YTD: -2.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,787	-0.7% (YTD: -2.2%)
Brent crude	USD 64.76	+2.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.53	-0.8%
Gold	USD 3,245	+2.1%
BTC	USD 85,438.90	+2.4% (YTD: -8.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.8 bn (8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 3.6% YTD.

In the green: Ibnsina Pharma (+6.7%), E-finance (+4.4%), and GB Corp (+4.2%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-0.2%).

CALENDAR

APRIL

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

27 April (Sunday): Deadline for applications to MINT Incubator's 3-month equity-free startup program with Alex Angels.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

30 April (Wednesday): Deadline for Australia Awards Scholarships applications.

Mid-April: Egyptian trade delegation to promote investments during an official visit to Canada

Business-to-business forum of Egyptian and Moroccan companies to promote bilateral trade, Cairo, Egypt.

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

MAY

7-10 May (Tuesday-Saturday): Egypt hosts the 24th Pan Arab Junior and Ladies Golf Championship.

10 May (Saturday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for April.

1 May-10 July (Thursday-Tuesday): 500 Global's Scale Up Program, Cairo

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

Egyptian-Russian Business Forum

May 2025: Egypt-Singapore Business Forum, Cairo.

JUNE

10 June (Tuesday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for May.

MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

Realme to open smartphone factory

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

November: Egypt to join the EU’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2026

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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