It’s a grim morning out there, ladies and gentlemen, as we head back to the trenches after a beautiful midweek holiday. To wit:
- US and European equities cratered yesterday, with American equities erasing their gains for the year as a rout kicked off by tech shares deepened and edged into other sectors. The big five “FAANG” tech stocks have lost a combined USD 1 tn in market cap since the correction began.
- Asian shares are following suit this morning. (You can get the latest snapshot here.)
- Oil plummeted 7.6% on Tuesday, driven in part by Wall Street’s use of futures contracts.Need a primer on what’s going on with oil? Stanley Reed has your back.
- The USD was up more than 0.7% against a basket of six major currencies. With “fears of a slowdown in [global] economic growth growth taking hold,” the greenback is looking like a safe haven, some think.
- Still, Wall Street’s “fear gauge” hasn’t returned to its October peak yet, though the Vix is now at a three-week high.
What’s going on? A growing number of analysts are worried about the global growth outlook, and some are suggesting that the markets are picking up on underlying weaknesses in the US and other developed economies.
A loss of momentum in Western markets is going to create more turbulence for EM: “There should be little doubt that developed economies are losing momentum,” the always-on-point Mohamed El Erian writes for the Financial Times — and “the Brexit saga, Italy’s stand-off with Brussels and the changing politics in Germany” suggest there could be still more downside to come. That’s “only adding to the complexities facing an emerging world already coping with China’s more uncertain outlook. … The world’s emerging economies also face challenges because of the shift from synchronised growth in developed economies last year to a much more mixed trend in 2018.” What does this all mean for investors? Read: Risks rise for investors as developed economies falter.
The bottom line? It may not yet be time to “buy the dip,” the FT suggests (see chart, below).
Donald Trump is standing with Saudi Arabia, downplaying Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, “pledging to remain a ‘steadfast partner’ of the kingdom and dismissing U.S. intelligence conclusions that the Saudi crown prince had ordered the killing of a dissident journalist last month,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Speaking of MbS: The crown prince will visit Egypt “soon” in a tour that will also take him to the UAE and Bahrain before heading to Argentina to attend the G20 summit, a diplomatic source revealed. MbS is due to hit the road this coming Friday.
Carlos Ghosn, the architect of the Nissan-Renault alliance, was arrested in Japan on Monday. The high-flying exec, who was said to be negotiating a full merger between the two companies in the days leading up to his arrest, faces charges he under-reported his compensation. That merger could be entirely off now: “Nissan’s investigation into alleged misconduct by Chairman Carlos Ghosn is expanding to include Renault-Nissan finances … in a further sign that Nissan may seek to loosen its French parent’s hold on their global carmaking alliance,” Reuters reports. The allegations are a warning to high-flying chief executives everywhere, the Financial Times editorial board writes.
A ray of sunshine? Goldman’s 2019 outlook for emerging markets: Goldman Sachs expects EM shares, currencies and bonds to see a “modest” rebound next year after a tumultuous 2018, according to its 2019 Outlook report (pdf). Returns on assets during the next six months may be better than the past period, analysts wrote, especially as concerns about the next US recession grow over time. Goldman sees EM growth sliding to 4.7% next year compared to 5.1% this year before accelerating to 5.3% in 2020. Thanks to a modestly weaker USD and economic improvements outside of China, EM equities will see the biggest rise at 12 percent in USD terms, while EM currencies should appreciate by an average of 2 percent, while local rates return round 10 percent and sovereign bonds return 5.5 percent, Bloomberg writes, picking up on the report.
In miscellany this morning:
- We like standing desks for our backs and hips — but using one doesn’t qualify as exercise, and there’s no real research proving that sitting at work will kill you. (NYT)
- 4am starts and spinach smoothies: Da Vinci Code's Dan Brown on how to write a bestseller. (Guardian)
- Four on the floor? Not for you. A Canadian province will phase out sales of non-electric cars by 2040. (Reuters)
- Pasta maker Barilla wants to sell you a Nutella knock-off and thinks you’ll buy it because it has no palm oil. (Reuters)
MUST-READ INTERVIEW: Fidelity’s Abigail Johnson (“most powerful woman in investing”) speaks to Bloomberg about cryptocurrencies, M&A and why her firm cut index fund fees to zero.
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