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Monday, 19 Jan 2026

What We're Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Capital Markets
Energy
M&a Watch
M&a Watch
Startup Watch
Moves
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
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Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

Is Gourmet the next Spinneys UAE, and will regional investors bite?
2

Capital markets

Futures trading to land on the EGX in March.
3

Energy

Oil Ministry is working overtime to ensure we see an uptick in natgas production.
4

What We're Tracking Today

Gov’t considers raising income tax exemption threshold next fiscal year.
5

M&A WATCH

Alta Semper takes majority stake in Big Ramy’s Nature’s Rule.
6

M&A WATCH

Edita now owns HoHos, Twinkies, Tiger Tail across all of Africa.
7

Moves

Karim Azmi joins Zaki Hashem as partner.
8

Also on our Radar

GRANITE secures fintech license.
9

PLANET FINANCE

The 2026 global outlook: Stability meets “hidden” friction.
10

BLACKBOARD

Higher education shifts from mass market degrees to tackling industry bottlenecks.

Monday, 19 Jan 2026

What We're Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Capital Markets
Energy
M&a Watch
M&a Watch
Startup Watch
Moves
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt considers raising income tax exemption threshold next fiscal year

Good morning, friends, and happy Monday to you all. Just like yesterday, we have a busy issue for you this morning, so let's dive right in.

A deeper dive into Gourmet’s IPO: Now that we’ve had time to digest Gourmet’s intention to float, we dive into what we believe will define 2026’s first IPO on the bourse — valuation and timeline.

Hub status loading: The Oil Ministry is preparing for its latest steps to position Egypt as a regional energy hub — launching fresh exploration tenders and drafting a schedule to clear all overdue payments to foreign energy players. Meanwhile, the government is looking into a plan to set up a gold refinery in hopes that it will help position us as a regional gold hub.

AND- Mr. Olympia Big Ramy is making headlines after Alta Semper acquired a majority stake in his co-founded dietary supplement producer Nature’s Rule in a bid to take it regional.

PSA — We are bringing back our annual readers’ poll to get the inside scoop on the business community’s outlook for 2026. For us at EnterpriseAM, there’s no greater asset than our informed readers, so we want to hear from you. Want to contribute? Click here to fill out our short anonymous survey.

Already taken our poll? We have one more polite request. A technical glitch yesterday meant that responses to the poll were not recorded. The problem is now fixed, and we’d really appreciate it if you quickly take the 1-minute poll again. We apologize for the inconvenience.

ALSO- Public and private sector workers are in for a three-day weekend, but a week later than expected, after Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly declared Thursday, 29 January — instead of Sunday, 25 January — a paid holiday in observance of the 25 January Revolution and Police Day, according to a cabinet statement.

WEATHER- It’s a cloudy day in Cairo, with a high of 19°C and a low of 10°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Watch this space

TAX —The Madbouly government is considering raising the total income tax exemption threshold for individuals to EGP 80k per year next fiscal year, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. The proposed plan includes increasing the base zero-rate bracket from EGP 45k to EGP 60k, alongside a bump in the personal exemption from EGP 15k to EGP 20k. Deputy Finance Minister Sherif El Kilany told us that the move is under study back in December.

Why it matters: This move, which comes as part of a new social protection package, is designed to shield low and middle-income earners from the impact of inflation and structural reforms. The wider package will include wage hikes and sector-specific incentives, according to another source familiar with the matter.

The timeline: The legislative amendments for raising the threshold will head to the House by March, coinciding with the submission of the budget draft for the new fiscal year.

MINING — Egypt is moving to formalize its position as a regional gold hub with a new national refinery. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly chaired the inaugural meeting of the Higher Committee for Gold yesterday to review plans for a facility specialized in refining raw gold to international standards, according to a statement. The committee, established by presidential decree earlier this month, aims to shift Egypt from a raw mineral exporter to an industrial center capable of serving both domestic and export markets.

The government is currently scouting three potential sites for the project, which is slated to operate as a PPP. The move is designed to curb illegal trading and secure international accreditation for Egyptian gold. The committee — which includes the CBE governor and investment, planning, and oil ministers — is drafting new legislation to govern and regulate the sector.

The project is the physical counterpart to the Pan-African Gold Bank. It builds on the MoU between the CBE and Afreximbank inked last month to establish a gold banking ecosystem and an accredited refinery within an Egyptian freezone.

The bottom line — this is a monetary sovereignty play. Accredited local refining allows the CBE to build a documented and liquid gold reserve. The move could also improve the country’s credit profile and reduce borrowing costs by providing a tangible, world-class guarantee.

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Happening today

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos kicks off today under the theme A Spirit of Dialogue, reflecting a more cautious global mood. There’s not much planned for day one — as is usually the case — but we will be keeping a close eye on the five-day forum. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is scheduled to deliver a special address, alongside appearances from Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib, Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk, CIB CEO Hisham Ezz Al Arab, and MNT-Halan founder and CEO Mounir Nakhla.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING FOR — El Sisi and Trump to hold a joint summit? El Sisi and US President Donald Trump will meet on Wednesday on the sidelines of the forum for an Egyptian-American Summit, Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa said last night (watch, runtime: 46:51). If the summit does happen, we expect the GERD dispute to be high on the agenda after Trump said the US is ready to restart mediation between ⁠Egypt ‍and Ethiopia over the matter. We also expect the two to discuss the push for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and rising geopolitical tension.

The big story abroad

A showdown between the US and the EU is set to take over Davos, as the EU readies a package of retaliatory tariffs — potentially EUR 93 bn’s worth — or restrict some US firms from the bloc’s market in response to US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff threat to European countries over their opposition to his campaign to take over Greenland. Plans are being drawn up now to give EU countries leverage during talks that are set to take place at Davos this week, the Financial Times reports.

In other Trump-causing-anxiety-for-geopolitical-leaders news… the US has started inviting heads of states to join the US’ new “Board of Peace” which is being touted as an “international organization that seeks to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict.” The board — which would initially focus on rebuilding Gaza and then address other global conflicts — would become official once three member states agree to the draft charter for the proposed group.

Trump has already invited several European nations to join the board, along with Egypt and Turkey, while Argentina’s Javier Milei and Canada’s Mark Carney were also invited to be part of a Board of Peace for Gaza. Diplomats have raised concerns that this would be a “Trump United Nations” given Trump’s criticisms of the UN in the past.

The so-called board would also allow countries who pay a USD 1 bn fee a permanent spot on the board — otherwise, countries would join on a three-year term basis, Bloomberg reports.

MEANWHILE- Senegal clinched its second Afcon title after a dramatic game that saw it beat Morocco 1-0, even after players had walked off in protest of a controversial penalty that was awarded to Morocco in stoppage time. The penalty ended up being an easy save as Morocco’s star player Brahim Diaz attempted a Panenka-style chip, giving Senegal’s Papa Gueye a chance to score in extra time.

PLUS- The Syrian government and Kurdish-dominated militia the Syrian Democratic Forces have reached a ceasefire agreement after Syrian troops seized towns controlled by the SDF this week as Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa works to extend his rule in the north. (Reuters)

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look at how the higher education sector is changing to meet evolving industry needs.

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Education with perspective. At Somabay, learning is about opening minds and shaping perspective. On 23 January, SBMUN will bring young voices together for dialogue, diplomacy, and shared understanding, set within a destination that encourages curiosity, confidence, and a wider view of the world.

2

The Big Story Today

Is Gourmet the next Spinneys UAE, and will regional investors bite?

With Gourmet’s intention to float out earlier this week, the market is moving beyond the announcement itself and into the harder questions that will define this IPO. How should the business be valued? Who is it really comparable to? And what, exactly, are investors being asked to underwrite?

As the book-building process approaches, those questions collapse into one central debate: Should Gourmet be priced like a conventional local grocery chain, or does it deserve the premium multiples of a regional peer such as Spinneys UAE?

Our take

The right valuation benchmark: Spinneys, not LuLu. For investors searching for a regional comparable, the template is already trading in Dubai. While Gourmet has little in common with LuLu’s volume-led, mass-market model, it aligns closely with the Spinneys Dubai thesis — a business built around affluent immunity, where a higher-income customer base is structurally better able to absorb inflation.

This positioning is not accidental. Gourmet Chairman Michael Wright spent over a decade as Group CEO of Spinneys, transplanting the same quality-first, high-margin operating DNA into the domestic grocer.

Where the valuation debate really sits: Margins. Spinneys is currently trading a 17x P/E on the Dubai Financial Market, and it had a sector-leading 19.6% EBITDA margin at listing. Gourmet, by contrast, comes to market with a 13.8% EBITDA margin, up sharply from 6.3% in 2022.

The bull case is not that Gourmet already matches Spinneys' profitability. Rather, investors are being asked to underwrite the 600 bp efficiency gap that management is expected to convince investors it can close over the next few years. The valuation, in that sense, is less about current earnings and more about operational convergence.

Institutional appetite: Who buys without an export hedge? For foreign and regional investors, Gourmet lacks a feature that has supported recent industrial IPOs: export revenue as a natural FX hedge.

Management’s counter-argument is that vertical integration is the hedge. Through Gourmet Food Solutions, the group manufactures its own meat, poultry, and bakery products, insulating margins from volatility in imported finished goods and reframing the story around import substitution rather than FX exposure.

One of the strongest upside signals is what isn’t happening. B Investments is not exiting, retaining a 40% stake post-IPO (down from 53% stake). That functions as a de facto long-term lock-up and suggests the private equity sponsor sees further value creation that a full exit would fail to capture. With the offering (of up to 47.6% of the grocer) structured as 80% institutional and 20% retail, it’s likely the bookrunner — EFG Hermes — has been courting a cornerstone investor to anchor the book and encourage engagement — as they did with National Printing.

The cashout concern: A common one with secondary-heavy IPOs is that the company emerges capital-constrained, with proceeds flowing to selling shareholders rather than the business. Gourmet’s balance sheet mitigates that risk. The company enters the listing process with EGP 274 mn in cash and minimal debt of EGP 29 mn, giving it sufficient liquidity to fund new store openings and expand its “Produced by Gourmet” range without relying on IPO proceeds. This financial flexibility also allows Gourmet to pursue growth while still supporting a dividend policy, aligning it with the yield expectations investors now associate with Spinneys UAE.

When can we expect Gourmet to start trading? While the Intention to Float provides no information about when we can expect the grocer to start trading on the EGX, we think it will happen sometime over the coming few weeks before we welcome Ramadan. Trading volumes dry up during the month, and trading days get shorter.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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3

Capital markets

Futures trading to land on the EGX in March

Derivatives trading is almost here. The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) officially licensed the EGX to operate its futures exchange, clearing the way for trading to launch as early as March, according to a statement. This aligns with the exchange's latest guidance that a functional derivatives market will go live before the end of 1Q.

SOUND SMART- Think of derivatives as contracts that derive their value from the performance of an underlying asset — like a stock, index, or commodity — allowing investors to hedge against risk or speculate on future price movements without owning the asset itself. This market includes futures — the type of derivative the FRA just greenlit — which lock in prices for a later date, and options, which give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset, providing a form of financial ins.

Beyond simple wagers on price direction, derivatives enable strategies like short selling to gain from market declines and swaps, which allow parties to exchange variables like interest rates of currencies to stabilize cashflow. Because these instruments typically require only a small upfront deposit to control a large position, they provide significant leverage, which amplifies both potential earnings and the risks of a total loss.

The rollout will be phased, debuting with futures contracts on the benchmark EGX30 index, before eventually expanding to the EGX70, single-stock futures, and options.

Seven brokerage firms have already applied for licenses to trade futures, and technical linkages between brokers and the clearinghouse are expected to be finalized within a month.

Our take

This introduces the country’s first true hedging mechanism for equities — a critical development for institutional investors. Foreign funds, in particular — which EGX Chairman Islam Azzam said have already requested meetings — often view the ability to hedge exposure or short the market as a prerequisite for capital allocation in frontier and emerging markets.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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4

Energy

Egypt is working overtime to ensure an uptick in natgas production

The Oil Ministry is lining up an exploration push built around two international tenders, revamped pricing terms, and faster arrear payments, a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM.

The clock starts now: The first international tender is set to launch next month, with the second following in 2H. The second round will lean on fresh seismic data from a survey kicking off next month, covering 18k km in the Mediterranean and 5.3k km in the Western Desert.

At the core is a rework of exploration and production pricing — a long-standing ask from international operators. The aim is to make undeveloped areas — including those in Upper Egypt — more attractive to investors.

Money talks: The government is preparing a schedule to clear dues owed to foreign energy players. After a USD 400 mn payment this month, the ministry plans to push another USD 350 mn by March, sending a clear signal to international oil companies.

The latest sign we’re not as heavily reliant on LNG imports as we once were: The Energos Eskimo floating storage and regasification unit has departed from Ain Sokhna — despite a multi-year contract — signaling confidence in our supplies as well as Israeli gas.

Egypt wants gas production back at 6.6 bcf/d, up from some 4.2 bcf/d now, to cut its import bill and lock in its regional hub ambitions.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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5

M&A WATCH

Alta Semper acquires majority stake in Big Ramy’s Nature’s Rule

Alta Semper acquires majority stake in Nature’s Rule: London-based private equity firm Alta Semper has acquired a majority stake in local dietary supplement leader Nature’s Rule, according to a press release (pdf). Nature’s Rule is best known for its Redrex brand, a sports nutrition line developed in partnership with Egyptian bodybuilding icon and co-founder Big Ramy. The transaction, whose value was not disclosed, is currently awaiting final regulatory approvals.

The acquisition is a bet on Egypt’s manufacturing competitiveness. Alta Semper plans to utilize Nature’s Rule facility as a low-cost production base for regional exports, Kareem Ghaly, the firm’s MENA Head, tells EnterpriseAM. By leveraging lower local energy and labor costs, the firm aims to transform the company into a regional export powerhouse.

The upside: The facility is currently operating below maximum capacity — Nature’s Rule can double its output to meet new regional demand without requiring immediate, heavy capital expenditure on new machinery, Ghaly noted.

What’s next: Beyond the ‘Big Ramy’ athlete demographic, Alta Semper is looking to take Nature’s Rule mainstream. The company recently signed a strategic partnership with El Ezaby Pharma to boost local retail presence beyond specialized supplement shops and gyms. Long-term plans include a push into fortified foods and malnutrition treatments in partnership with African government organizations.

Natures’ Rule products currently feature 30-40% local content, allowing for price points significantly lower than imported alternatives. At the moment, exports account for roughly 40-45% of production and the PE aims to hike that figure to 65-70% within five years. This shift is designed to ensure the company maintains a “net positive” hard-currency position to cover its imported raw material needs, Ghaly told us.

The exit play: Ghaly sees the company as a prime target for a strategic acquisition or an IPO within five years. He notes that the sector’s flexibility — regulated by the National Food Safety Authority but free from state price caps — makes it a high-margin, attractive target for future investors.

ADVISORS: Nexus Capital acted as the sole financial advisor to the founders, with Amr & Partners serving as their counsel. Krossing Legal and Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy provided counsel to the buyer, while Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz, a member firm of Grant Thornton was financial and tax advisor, Amra Health commercial advisor, and IBIS Consulting was ESG and impact advisor.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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6

M&A WATCH

Edita now owns HoHos, Twinkies, Tiger Tail across all of Africa

Edita now owns HTT brands across the continent. EGX-listed Snackmaker Edita Food Industries has acquired the exclusive rights to the HoHos, Twinkies, and Tiger Tail (HHT) brands across an additional 45 African countries under an agreement inked with US-based Hostess Brands, according to a press release (pdf). The move makes Edita the owner of the three brands across the entire African continent, building on its existing ownership of the brands in the MENA region.

We don’t know the price tag, but we do know that the cost of the acquisition is separate from Edita’s EGP 4 bn capex for the year, which will go towards expanding its footprint in Egypt, Morocco, and Iraq, IR and Investment Manager Omar El Abhar tells EnterpriseAM.

Edita is taking a demand-led approach: “We are moving with big ambition, but with financial and operational caution that links spending to real demand growth,” El Abhar tells us. Initial expansion into the new African markets will be served via exports from existing manufacturing hubs in Egypt and Morocco, according to El Abhar, who didn’t rule out establishing new manufacturing units deeper in Africa once demand justifies the investment.

The big picture: The move is a key pillar in Edita's bid to hit a record EGP 26 bn sales this year, El Abhar tells us. It also serves as a natural FX hedge, increasing the company's hard-currency revenue stream as it scales its regional footprint.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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7

Startup watch

Knot Technologies looks to expand its efforts to kill the event ticket resale black market with USD 1 mn pre-seed round

Knot Technologies announced a USD 1 mn pre-seed round led by Cairo-based VC A15 in a statement (pdf). Founded by a team from Meta, Goldman Sachs, and Mubadala, the company is working to “rebuild how identity, distribution, and value flow in live events.”

Knot exists to address a problem many of us know only too well. “It’s almost impossible to get these [in-demand] tickets from the primary market because of all the bots [and] professional resellers,” co-founder and CEO Ahmed Abdalla tells EnterpriseAM. Fans end up paying "10 times the price, 100 times the price" on unregulated channels, only to find out at the venue that they have a fake ticket.

For operators, this is about recapturing leaked revenue. Currently, organizers see “10 to 20% of a stadium” sold on the black market at massive markups, but “they’re not able to capture any of that upside.” Knot allows them to bring that unregulated activity back onto their own balance sheets.

The startup is using AI to scrap the first-come, first-served model of ticket sales. “For us, preventing resale shouldn’t actually just happen at the resale level...we want to ensure from the very beginning that the ticket goes to the right person based on the data,” Abdalla explains. Knot is positioning itself as a silent backend that integrates with venues and event organizers’ websites that ensures that for its clients. To do this, it relies on an “AI layer that authenticates identity, governs distribution, and tracks demand in real time,” according to the statement.

While ticketing is Knot’s main focus right now, “the underlying technology has the potential to create value far beyond ticketing,” according to co-founder and CTO Hussein Elbendak. Abdalla sees the technology expanding to any market with high demand and “unregulated secondary markets,” like sneaker drops and restaurant bookings in cities like London and New York.

What’s next? The startup has its eyes on entering at least three or four major geographies by the end of the year and establishing itself as one of the largest ticketing companies in Egypt, Abdalla said.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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8

Moves

Karim Azmi joins Zaki Hashem as partner

Zaki Hashem, Attorneys at Law named our friend Karim Azmi (LinkedIn) as a partner, according to a statement. Karim will focus on hospitality, real estate, and corporate and commercial matters, as well as regional and cross-border transactions. He brings more than 27 years of experience across Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, having held senior legal roles at Cenomi Centers, Abu Dhabi National Hotels Company, Spar International UAE, and Majid Al Futtaim Properties. Azmi has advised multinational clients on Egyptian law, including transactions with the government across hospitality and infrastructure.

“Inside baseball” fact of the morning: Nearly 18 years ago, Karim prepared and filed the incorporation papers for Inktank Communications, Egypt’s first investor relations advisory firm and better known today as Enterprise Advisory. Mabrouk, ya Mr. Karim. 🙂

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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9

Also on our Radar

GRANITE secures fintech license

Our friends at GRANITE secured a fintech license from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), setting the stage for the launch of the Granite Money Market Account mobile application, according to a statement (pdf) from the company. The company is now authorized to accept fund subscriptions and carry out purchase and redemption transactions for open-ended investment funds. The money market account targets individuals and institutions seeking tax-exempt daily returns on idle cash. “The platform enables corporates to move beyond passive cash holding toward a more disciplined and optimized approach to treasury management.”

Timing is everything: Granite’s fully digital money market account, the first of its kind in Egypt, comes at a crucial time when EGP 1.3 tn in savings certificates are set to mature and “liquidity has become a central focus, with institutions competing aggressively to retain deposits amid shifting interest rate conditions,” the company said.

ALSO FROM THE FRA- The authority issued fresh approvals and licenses to a handful of firms, including Adva, which was granted a consumer finance license.

Kemet continues its push for the localization of renewables components

Local industrial services player Kemet will establish a USD 500 mn solar cells and panels plant in partnership with one of Chinese GCL Group ’s companies, under a cooperation inked between the two sides. The plant will have an annual production capacity of 5 GWs. Kemet also inked an MoU with China’s TBEA to establish an inverter factory, Egypt’s first. Inverters are critical devices in renewable energy systems.

Kemet is shaping up to be a key player in the Madbouly government’s push to localize the production of renewable energy materials and reach its renewables target. Kemet and China’s Cornex last week agreed to establish a USD 200 mn energy storage battery cells factory in Egypt using local raw materials, helping address one of the most expensive and import-heavy components of large renewable projects.

Production disruptions to Lukoil’s Egypt assets delayed for now, with sale deadline extension

The US Treasury extended sanctioned Russian energy major Lukoil’s deadline to secure buyers for its overseas assets to 28 February, a statement (pdf) showed. These assets, valued at a total of USD 22 bn, include a 50% share in the West Esh El Mahalla concession — operated alongside the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation — and a 24% interest in the Meleiha oil concession in the Western Desert. If interested suitors — including the UAE’s International Holding Company and Saudi Arabia’s Midad Energy — fail to reach an agreement over the 45-day extension, sanction complications could raise the possibility of production disruptions.

Egypt could follow Iraq’s lead in planning for a temporary state takeover to ensure smooth operations. Earlier this month, the Iraqi cabinet greenlit plans to take over the running of its West Qurna 2 oilfield — Lukoil’s largest foreign asset and one of the world’s biggest oil fields — as they seek to secure a buyer over a 12-month period.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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10

PLANET FINANCE

The 2026 global outlook: Stability meets “hidden” friction

The global economy in 2026 will be defined by a state of deceptive stability, where the "settled dust" of headline growth figures masks a series of profound structural shifts in trade, technology, and monetary policy, according to Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI. Global real GDP growth is projected to land at 2.5%, marginally below the 2.6% estimated for 2025. While this suggests a return to a predictable macro environment, nine “hidden” risks — from US intervention in Venezuela to the cooling of the AI investment cycle — threaten to rock the boat, BMI says.

The primary takeaway for 2026 is not that the volatility of the early 2020s has vanished, but rather that the “shocks” of the previous five years — from aggressive interest rate hikes to radical trade realignment — have now become the baseline reality.

This “new normal” is defined by a global easing of inflation and a subsequent stabilization in monetary policy support. Most central banks are expected to reach their terminal rates by 2026, marking the end of the most aggressive tightening and easing cycles in recent memory. While this suggests a more predictable cost of capital, BMI notes that this “settled” environment creates its own set of challenges.

What to look for under the hood

The danger for 2026 is a sense of complacency driven by the steady headline data. The report identifies nine under-appreciated or less well-recognized risks and surprises that could disrupt the consensus view. These “hidden” factors are designed to alert readers to alternative scenarios that exist across multiple geographies and industries, moving beyond the standard macro predictions that most of the market is currently pricing in.

Among the risks (and upside) lurking in the shadows: BMI identifies a handful of potential risks and positive scenarios that could shape the year ahead. These include the shift toward US-led “grand bargains” with China and Russia that risks alienating traditional allies, fragmenting global supply chains, and sparking trade protectionism. Meanwhile, the global landscape could face critical vulnerabilities from crumbling Antarctic treaties, widening vaccine immunity gaps, increasingly uninsurable cyber risks, and the struggle of aging Asian economies to secure essential skilled talent.

Also worth looking out for: The US’ fiscal health, as the country could be looking at a “financial repression” shock in 2026, BMI suggests. Public debt sits at nearly 100% of GDP and net interest outlays set to top USD 1 tn in 2026, while fiscal deficits are at 6.0% and the gross federal debt is at USD 38.4 tn. “This arithmetic collides with a heavy maturity calendar and large gross issuance, keeping the Treasury market acutely sensitive to funding conditions,” BMI says.

AI bust? Adding fuel to the fiscal fire is a physical bottleneck in the AI shift. Surging electricity demand from data centers is hitting the hard limits of the US, UK, and the EU’s power grid. BMI warns that 2026 could see “processing power” rationed, with wholesale electricity prices spiking by 25-200% at key nodes, potentially adding 0.3-0.5 percentage points to headline CPI. This will complicate the path towards inflation targets, and disrupt the investments and fiscal sustainability trajectory.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are starting off the week on mixed footing, with investors keeping an eye on China’s 4Q 2025 GDP figures and other key data, as well as Washington’s continued drama over Greenland. Japan’s Nikkei and the Hang Seng Index are both in the red, while the Shanghai Index and South Korea’s Kospi are trading up. Wall Street futures suggest a muted start to the trading day across the pond, after closing a losing week on Friday.

EGX30

43,953

+1.4% (YTD: +5.1%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.32

Sell 47.45

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.33

Sell 47.43

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

10,913

+0.9% (YTD: +4.0%)

ADX

10,123

+0.7% (YTD: +1.3%)

DFM

6,316

+0.9% (YTD: +4.5%)

S&P 500

6,940

-0.1% (YTD: +1.4%)

FTSE 100

10,235

0.0% (YTD: +3.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,029

-0.2% (YTD: +4.1%)

Brent crude

USD 64.07

-0.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.49

+12.3%

Gold

USD 4,669

+1.6%

BTC

USD 92,611

-2.5% (YTD: +5.7%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,001.73

+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.58

-0.2% (YTD: -0.2%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

15.86

+0.1% (YTD: +6.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.8 bn (47.8% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 5.1% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Aluminum (+6.6%), Credit Agricole (+6.2%), and Raya Holding (+6.2%).

In the red: Telecom Egypt (-0.4%) and Orascom Development (-0.4%).

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard
11

BLACKBOARD

Higher education shifts from mass market degrees to tackling industry bottlenecks

For decades, Egypt’s higher education model was built on a simple, albeit flawed, social contract: provide mass-market degrees to mns of graduates and hope the economy absorbs them. The results — a chronic skills gap and a private sector forced to spend mns on retraining — have long been a drag on productivity.

Now, a new generation of specialized universities is attempting to tear up that contract. By moving away from centralized campuses and toward a multi-campus, decentralized model built around specific industry bottlenecks (food, transport, tourism, sports), the state is signaling a pivot toward just-in-time, investor-led education. The debut of the Food Sciences University in the 2026-27 academic year, in partnership with Japan’s Hiroshima University, is the first real test of whether Egypt can successfully outsource its human capital development to the very companies that need it most.

The factory floor, farm, or lab is the new classroom

The most striking feature of the Food Sciences University — and the transport-focused university with Germany's TU Dresden that will follow — is the absence of a traditional, fixed campus. Students will receive their academic grounding at partner institutions like Cairo University and Benha University, but their practical training will take place at investor-owned farms and factories, Education Development Fund Secretary-General Rasha Saad Sharaf tells EnterpriseAM.

We’re not talking about just field trips here; this is a structural integration of the private sector into the curriculum, Sharaf added. For the state, this bypasses the need for massive capex investments in mock laboratories or state-run training farms that often lag behind market technology. For the investor, it provides a first look at the talent pool trained specifically on their systems and hardware.

Why food and transport? And why now?

The selection of the first two verticals — food and transport — is no accident. With the Nile under pressure and global supply chains volatile, Egypt is keen on creating smart agriculture solutions. The upcoming Food Sciences University’s focus on water resource management, drones, and satellite-guided irrigation is a direct response to the reality that Egypt can no longer afford traditional farming. Alongside its specialized colleges for smart agriculture and water resources management, the university will also house colleges for animal production, food processing technology, and agricultural mechanization — which also tie in with the country’s move to boost local food supply and increase exports.

Meanwhile, the transport-focused university, backed by German expertise, aligns with the state's multi-USD bn investment in ports, high-speed rail, and the Suez Canal Economic Zone. You cannot run a global logistics hub on civil engineering degrees alone; you need transport economists and logistics managers.

Exporting human capital

There is an underlying demographic pressure driving this shift. Egypt is not just training these students for the domestic market. The goal, as highlighted by Sharaf, is to create graduates who compete globally.

In an era where human capital as a service is a viable export, Egypt is positioning its specialized graduates to fill roles across the GCC, in Europe, and elsewhere. By partnering with Hiroshima and Dresden, Egypt is looking to get its graduates an internationally recognized seal of approval to enter the international labor market.

Mind the (funding) gap

Academic education alone isn’t enough to address the big problems like food security in Egypt and Africa, Professor Khaled Ayad from the Agricultural Research Centre tells EnterpriseAM. To achieve real impact, serve the private sector, push economic development, what’s needed is effective partnerships and funding to undertake specialized research, he added.

But it seems this new approach has caught the attention of some local players, with the Higher Education Ministry currently exploring partnerships with major manufacturers and local investors to partner with the new universities, a government source tells EnterpriseAM.

For this model to work, the Higher Education Ministry needs a critical mass of investors to open their gates to students. The question is whether major Egyptian companies working in these specific industries see the upside and the benefit for their business, or if they view this as just a burdensome mandate.

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CALENDAR

2026

JANUARY

19-23 January (Monday-Friday): World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos-Klosters, Switzerland

22 January (Thursday): ESBC SEEING webinar, From Zurich to Cairo: How Global Executive Research Shapes Tomorrow’s Leadership.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

3 February (Tuesday): S&P Global to release PMI figures for January.

10 February (Tuesday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for January.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting of 2026.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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