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Good morning, friends. It’s another calm news day led by news of our upcoming LNG shipments, with four shipments expected to arrive by April and more to come throughout the summer months, and JP Morgan’s prediction of when the central bank will start cutting rates.
So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:05pm in the capital, and you’ll have until 4:35am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.
PSA-
Individuals will have until 31 March to submit their tax filings for 2024 to the Egyptian Tax Authority, while companies will have until 30 April. Filings must be submitted electronically through authority platforms.
WEATHER- It’s another warm day in Cairo, with a high of 34°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.
It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 26°C and a low of 15°C.
** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?
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ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at how the government is shifting its focus toward using government-owned companies’ unused assets for industrial development. Check out the story here.
We will soon hear what the Trump administration has to say about Egypt’s plan for Gaza: The Trump administration will give a detailed response to Egypt’s USD 53 bn Gaza reconstruction plan which was put forward as a counter to US President Donald Trump’s plan to displace Gaza’s citizens by the end of this month, Al Arabiya writes, citing unnamed sources. The US also wants to add some points of its own to the proposed reconstruction plan. The American side has asked for a list of personnel nominated to run Gaza post-war.
Remember: Arab ministers last week agreed with the US Envoy to the Middle East to continue consultations and coordination on the Arab-backed Gaza reconstruction plan, as a basis for the reconstruction efforts in the strip.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- A bigger privatization program in the making? The Sovereign Fund of Egypt is conducting a comprehensive review of the privatization program that could see it expand the program to 40-60 state-run companies, a government source told EnterpriseAM. Companies slated for privatization were expanded to 35 back in August 2023 from an earlier lineup of 32.
ICYMI- Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib last month unveiled a plan by the government to transfer the administration of all state-owned companies to the SFE as part of a strategy to maximize their returns. The first phase of the plan is focused on 370 profitable firms with straightforward ownership structures.
#2- Gov’t to press ahead with desalination plants tenders soon: The Finance Ministry is expected to kick off the first phase of its planned desalination plants tenders — involving four plants with a combined capacity of 3 mn cubic meters per day — in 2Q 2025, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM. Land is being readied for the plants on the northwest coast and the ministry is awaiting the Sovereign Fund of Egypt’s (SFE) approval to launch the tenders.
It’s been a long time coming: We first got word of the news in 2023, at the time an SFE spokesperson told us that the fund has plans to launch tenders for the plants by 3Q 2023 as part of a wider plan to set up a total of 21 plants.
The first phase could be expanded to include up to 10 plants, subject to the SFE’s approval, seeing as several prequalified companies are ready to submit financial and technical offers, our source said.
GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL-
JP Morgan sees the CBE’s easing cycle beginning in April: US banking giant JP Morgan sees the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cutting rates by 400 bps in its next meeting in April, before cutting rates by an additional 200 bps in May, the bank said in a research note. “The confirmation of the big inflation drop” in February “should give the CBE scope to commence the easing cycle from its April MPC meeting,” the note reads.
Some see the 400 bps rate cut as far fetched: “We see the MPC cutting rates by 200-300 bps,” National Bank of Kuwait Economic Research’s Noaman Khalid told us, adding that a 400 bps rate cut is unlikely seeing as the CBE is trying to show the market that it is proceeding cautiously.
Many share this sentiment: Several analysts we polled prior to the MPC’s last meeting in February predicted that the easing cycle would begin in April. “Previous statements by the CBE have pointed at wanting to see a sharper and sustained fall in the headline inflation rate, and with earlier falls in the EGP now falling out of the annual price comparison, we suspect that February and March's inflation data will provide policymakers with the evidence to loosen monetary policy,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston previously told EnterpriseAM.
REMEMBER- The MPC decided to keep interest rates unchanged when it held its first meeting of the year in February, in what was expected by some to be the beginning of its long-awaited monetary easing cycle. The MPC deemed that “the current policy rates are appropriate to maintain a sufficiently tight monetary stance.”
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HAPPENING TODAY-
Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib is in India to talk trade, industry, and — of course — investment, according to a ministry statement. The minister will meet with senior Indian officials — including External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal — along with representatives from business organizations and nine major companies during his trip.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global press, with the US dominating the few headlines worth noting.
US vows to continue “unrelenting” attacks on Yemen’s Houthis until they stop attacking vessels crossing the Red Sea, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said yesterday. “I want to be very clear, this campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence,” he said, adding that the US will stop its attacks when the Houthis say they will stop shooting vessels in the Red Sea. Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al Houthi vowed to “continue the escalation” and keep targeting US vessels in the Red Sea as long as they “continue their aggression.” (Bloomberg | AFP | Reuters)
AND- The Trump administration has deported over 200 alleged Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador, defying a federal judge’s order to halt the deportations. The White House dismissed the ruling, arguing the order had “no lawful basis.” (New York Times | AP | Reuters | FT)
*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.
In today’s issue: We spoke to AUC School of Continuing Education Dean Mahmoud Allam and G-Tec Education Egypt CEO Qaed Ebrahim to find out more about the rising demand for adult education, which is increasingly becoming recognized for its important role in keeping businesses to date.
