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Fitch upgrades sovereign credit rating outlook to positive, affirms B- rating

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IPOs on the EGX to pick in 4Q 2024 or early 2025

Good morning, folks. You may be wishing that you were still sitting on the beach or however else you enjoyed the long weekend, but at least we have some positive news to kick off an all too abrupt start back at work.

In today’s issue, we’ve got very welcome news that Fitch Ratings has upgraded our credit rating outlook to positive, a floating LNG regasification unit set to arrive next month, Egypt’s first digital bank to open in 4Q, and much, much more.

But before we jump right in, did you know that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another bright and sunny day in Cairo today, with a high of 28°C and a low of 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s slightly cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 25°C and a low of 17°C.

DATA POINT-

#1- Foreign holdings of local debt have more than doubled to USD 35.3 bn as of March from USD 16.6 bn at the end of 2023, according to data compiled by Fitch Ratings. (More about the ratings agency's outlook for the economy in the news well, below)


#2- Tourist arrivals to Egypt increased 27% y-o-y in the first four months of the year, with visitors from Arab countries accounting for around 54% of all arrivals, deputy Tourism Minister Ghada Shalaby told Asharq Business.


#3- Total orders issued under the government’s car-for-FX initiative have reached just under USD 2 bn, according to a statement from the Immigration Ministry. Expats have transferred some USD 799 mn to the government under the initiative so far, the statement read.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- IPO activity in Egypt’s stock exchange will recover by 4Q 2024 or early 2025 as the market adjusts to the float of the EGP and increased interest rates, EFG Hermes Investment Banking Co-CEO Mohamed Ebeid told Asharq Business.


#2- The writing of the new tax policy document for 2024-2030 is underway, with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly instructing for the draft document to be sent to members of the National Dialogue, Chambers of Commerce, and business associations for feedback, according to a cabinet statement.


#3- An unnamed UK company is looking to invest in the country's green hydrogen sector, British Ambassador Gareth Bayley told Al Arabiya on Sunday. The projects will soon be announced, Bayley said, without providing any further details. British companies are also currently exploring further investments in renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, sustainable cities, education, and transportation, he added.

ATTENTION, EGYPT INVESTORS-

Foreign investors are falling in love with Egypt again… Foreign investors we speak with (debt, equity, and strategic alike) have a growing appetite for Egypt. They’re buying into local debt, eyeing promising shares, and committing bns of USD to both new ventures here and the growth of their existing businesses. They like the Egypt story that’s taking shape after the float of the EGP, and its competitive advantages are clear to many of them: It’s a massive consumer opportunity and a regional export hub of tomorrow.

The Enterprise Optimism Forum 2024 will do exactly what it says on the tin: Spark conversations about a future that we think is much brighter than so many in our community feel right now. Think of it as much-needed shock therapy combined with an early, actionable roadmap for those of us who are “long Egypt.”

We’ll be talking with you about the agenda over the coming couple of weeks. It features speakers from Egypt and abroad who are future-proofing their businesses and angling to capture tomorrow’s opportunities — and who aren’t afraid to answer some tough questions.

*** Interested in attending? Tap or click here to let us know. Seating is limited.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The online platform to sort out building violations goes live today: Owners of unauthorized buildings built until 15 October 2023 looking to legalize their properties in return for paying a reconciliation fee can now file their requests through a freshly launched website (here) and Android app (here), according to a Planning Ministry statement.

Remember: The cabinet approved the executive regulations for the new Building Reconciliation Act last month after the law was ratified in December, making it easier for owners of authorized buildings to legalize their properties. We dove into the ins and outs of the new act in a Hardhat last year.


#2- The House is in session today and tomorrow to look into a report on the state's balance sheets for the previous fiscal year.

And it looks like four public authorities will come under fire for incurring losses: Just four public authorities accounted for 95.6% of the EGP 14.4 bn in losses incurred by public authorities in FY 2022-23, an informed source told Enterprise. The National Media Authority incurred 73.3% of the total losses, followed by the National Authority for Tunnels (13.1%), Cairo's Public Transport Authority (5%), and the Nuclear Power Plants Authority (4.2%). The remaining 4.4% of losses came from other public authorities.


#3- For our fellow iSheep: Apple is expected to unveil new iPads this afternoon at 5pm Cairo time (7am Pacific). The expectation: a revamp of the line that restores some coherence to the offering (and for the Pro to get a FaceTime camera on the long edge). You can stream the announcement from Apple’s website or its Youtube channel.

Apple’s announcement kicks off a series of big tech events, including next week’s Google I/O and the race toward Apple’s developers conference in June.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Private sector health check incoming: S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for April tomorrow measuring the country’s non-oil private sector activity, which has been in contraction for the last 40 months.

Policymakers are hoping that we should start to see the EGP float having an effect on private sector activity: We’re still yet to see the hoped for uptick in business activity following the float of the EGP, with March’s data showing “ softer but still-solid deterioration ” on the back of persistent currency challenges and elevated inflationary pressures. Data for April will give us an insight into the private sector during the first full month following the float of the national currency.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

FRA extends deadline for submitting financial statements until 30 May: The Financial Regulatory Authority has extended its deadline for EGX-listed firms to submit their financial statements ending in March to 30 May, the authority said in a statement on Thursday.


Egypt will host ProPak MENA from Sunday, 26 May to Tuesday, 28 May at the Egypt International Exhibition Centre in Cairo. The conference will see F&B manufacturing industry professionals network and discover the latest equipment and logistic solutions for processing and packaging.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Hamas has accepted a ceasefire proposal — Israel says it’s not enough and is hammering Rafah. Here’s what you need to know this morning:

  • Hamas accepted a proposal from Egyptian and Qatari mediators;
  • Israel says it doesn’t go far enough and plans to take over the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing;
  • Israeli forces are attacking Rafah by air and on the ground. More than 1 mn people have sought refuge in city on Egypt’s border, and the Israeli army is now telling at least 100k of them in east Rafah to move into a so-called “humanitarian zone;
  • Shuttle diplomacy continues today in Cairo after both sides said they’d continue indirect talks.

Egypt condemns the move: The Foreign Ministry yesterday issued a warning calling on Israel “to exercise the utmost restraint and avoid further escalation at this sensitive time in the ceasefire negotiation process.”

There’s more foreign policy ugliness in the headlines: Russia has rattled Western capitals with an announcement that it’s running drills on the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Pundits say the Kremlin is putting on pressure in response to French and British statements on Ukraine.

SOUND SMART- Tactical nukes are smaller, less-powerful weapons designed for use on the battlefield. Strategic nuclear weapons are the things designed to take-out cities.

IN THE BUSINESS PAGES- Reuters won a Pulitzer Prize for its long-term investigation into Elon Musk’s business empire, including Tesla and SpaceX. The newswire also won for its photography of the war between Hamas and Israel. You can read the full series here, read the Pulitzer announcement, or check out the long list (pdf).

ENTERPRISE IS LOOKING FOR SMART, TALENTED PEOPLE of all backgrounds to help us build some very cool new things. Enterprise — the essential morning read on all the important news shaping business and the economy in Egypt and the region — is looking for writers, reporters and editors to help us build out new publications.

NEVER WORKED IN A NEWSROOM BEFORE? We have the Enterprise Business Writing Development Program. Whether you are a recent graduate, an industry vet, or looking to switch careers, the Enterprise Business Writing Development Program will give you the tools you need to tell the most important stories to our audience of C-suite officials, government ministers, diplomats, financiers, investors and entrepreneurs.

Not an internship program — a career: The three-month program will see full-time, paid participants take part in workshops and lectures from veteran business journalists on subject matter knowledge, while also working on constructing and filing Enterprise stories that will run on any of our publications. Those who have successfully completed the program, will then be given long-term job offers.

Apply directly to jobs@enterprisemea.com and mention “writing development program” in your subject line.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how Egyptian industry is increasingly looking towards solar energy to power its energy needs.

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ECONOMY

Fitch upgrades Egypt’s sovereign credit rating outlook to positive

Egypt’s credit outlook is looking a whole lot healthier: Fitch Ratings has revised up its outlook on Egypt’s long-term foreign currency debt to positive from stable, citing a reduction in near-term external financing risks on the back of an influx of foreign capital from the Ras El Hekma agreement, fresh funds from international financial institutions, non-resident holdings of domestic debt doubling since January to USD 35.3 bn in March, the float of the EGP, and interest rate hikes, the credit rating agency said in a statement.

Good news for sure, but Fitch isn’t ready just yet to upgrade our rating, affirming its B- rating — six notches into junk territory.

“Near-term external financing risks have markedly reduced” on the back of the Ras El Hekma agreement, float of the EGP, and the tightening of monetary policy, according to Fitch. The new post-float normal has also helped further bridge these risks as it has attracted back foreign interest in the local debt market and led to other international financial institutions to pledge additional funding. This was also helped by the fact that non-resident holdings of domestic debt (i.e. debt held by foreign investors or institutions) more than doubled to USD 35.3 bn by March, from USD 16.6 bn at the end of last year.

Currency exchange confidence has also helped: “Fitch has somewhat greater confidence that exchange rate flexibility will be more durable than in the past,” the rating agency wrote — marking a shift away from the skepticism towards the EGP float it held in late March.

And there’s some promising movement going forward: The Ras El Hekma agreement “underscores the strength of GCC financial support for Egypt,” according to the rating agency. Government efforts to start reeling in off-budget spending through the new Public Government Budget and an EGP 1 tn cap for public investment in the next fiscal year will also reduce debt sustainability risks.

But we’re not in the all-clear just yet: Loosening fiscal policy, an unmoving current account deficit, weaker commitment to the flexible exchange rate, and/or an escalation of regional conflict were all listed as potential threats to Egypt’s future credit rating, Fitch wrote.

Finance Ministry reax: “The Egyptian economy has gradually begun to restore the confidence of international ranking institutions [...] by adopting reformative, advanced, integrated and sustainable economic policies,” said Finance Minister Mohamed Maait in a statement. “The positive financial indicators during the past nine months reflect the efforts made to achieve financial discipline in light of global crises,” added Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk.

OTHER KEY KEY INDICATORS TO WATCH OUT FOR-

#1- Inflation: Fitch projects that inflation will fall from 33.4% y-o-y in March to 12.3% y-o-y by June 2025.

#2- GDP: Fitch sees growth in the current fiscal year slowing 0.7 percentage points to 3.1% before picking up to 4.7% in the next fiscal year thanks to an uptick in business confidence, FDI remittances, and real incomes.

#3- Foreign currency reserves: Fitch expects foreign currency reserves to reach USD 49.7 bn in the current fiscal year and USD 53.3 bn in the next.

#4- Fiscal deficit: The credit ratings agency expects the general government deficit to narrow by 0.3 percentage points to 5.5% of GDP in the current fiscal year, before widening above the government's target of 7.3% to 8.8% of GDP in the next fiscal year owing to high debt servicing costs and no big ticket Ras El Hekma type projects in the pipeline.

#5- Debt interest costs: The debt interest-to-revenue ratio is set to peak at around 68% in the next fiscal year, before falling to a still-high 45% by the fiscal year 2027-28.

The international press also took notice of the upgrade: Bloomberg.

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Energy

Egypt locks in a lease agreement for an LNG regasification vessel with Norway’s Höegh LNG

A floating regasification unit will be heading our way next month: Norway’s Höegh LNG will send a floating storage and regasification unit to Ain Sokhna next month, as per an agreement it signed with state-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company and Australian Industrial Energy (AIE), according to statements from the Oil Ministry and HöeghLNG. The unit is expected to cost the government USD 90 mn a year, CNN Business Arabic reported, citing an unnamed government official.

The regasification unit will remain in Egypt for around 19-20 months through February 2026, the Norwegian company’s statement read. After that, it’ll head to an Australian LNG terminal owned by AIE. The regasification unit will reduce the country’s reliance on Jordan’s terminal in Aqaba, which Egypt was given the right to use in an agreement inked last year.

Remember: A dip in domestic production has pushed the country from being a net exporter to a net importer of LNG in the recent months. The government currently seeks to capitalize on a fall in global gas prices as it looks to bypass the rising cost of mazut imports and stock up on LNG supplies in preparation for an increase in demand during summer months. Egypt reportedly plans to import three LNG shipments per month between July and October, which could cost Egypt over USD 500 mn this summer, according to CNN Business Arabic’s unnamed government source. That’s more or less consistent with earlier reports that Egypt could spend USD 120 mn per month for the four months between July and October.

ICYMI: Qatar and Algeria are poised to become our two main sources of LNG, according to unconfirmed media reports last month.

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Banking

Banque Misr to launch digital bank in 4Q after receiving license from CBE + CBE issues new ownership regulations

A step closer to launching Egypt’s first digital bank: Banque Misr’s Misr Digital Innovation (MDI) has received preliminary approval from the Central Bank of Egypt to launch the country’s first digital bank, MDI said in a statement (pdf) on Thursday. The new bank will be called Onebank, MDI announced.

What’s next: MDI plans to get Onebank off the ground in 4Q 2024 after finalizing the second phase of due diligence and acquiring the operating license.

Remember: MDI applied for a digital banking license in August, becoming the first local company to do so. The CBE updated regulations to the Banking Act governing digital bank licensing the month prior to MDI announcing its intention.

Basata to follow suit? Fintech platform Basata Financial Holding is also looking into setting up a digital bank, the company’s chairman Aladdin Saba told Al Borsa. The company is reportedly in the process of studying the requirements of acquiring a digital bank license.

More companies in line to establish digital banks? Local firms Ostoul Securities Brokerage, OPay, and PaySky have also announced their plans to apply for a digital banking license.

CBE ISSUES NEW OWNERSHIP REGULATIONS-

The CBE issued new ownership rules for banks: Buyers who are going to acquire more than a 10% stake in a bank — or a stake that would otherwise grant the buyer voting rights — will have to file a request to the CBE at least 60 days ahead of finalizing the agreement, according to a circular (pdf) issued on the CBE’s website.

The submission must include a solvency report of the applicant, future management plans for the bank and the policies they target, and a list of the shares they own in other companies, the statement read. Additionally, the acquisition must be completed within six months of receiving the CBE’s approval.

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Moves

Speedinvest taps Rana Abdel Latif as new partner

Austrian VC outfit Speedinvest has appointed Rana Abdel Latif (LinkedIn) as a partner and assigned her to its emerging markets team as the early-stage VC fund looks to expand its footprint in the region and set up an office in the region, the company said in a statement (pdf). The veteran of the Egyptian VC scene is joining Speedinvest from Cairo-based fintech investment platform Nclude. She has also worked for Global Ventures, The Cairo Angels (now Acasia), and Qalaa Holdings in her 15+ year career.

Tags:

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

The ongoing tragedy in Gaza and short-lived hopes of a ceasefire dominated the airwaves last night

On day 213 of Israel’s war on Gaza, the nation’s talk show hosts focused in on the short-lived hope for a ceasefire that led to celebrations across the enclave, which abruptly ended as Israel began ratcheting up its strikes in preparation of a long-awaited ground assault.

Fleeting celebrations in Gaza: Gazan crowds took to the streets to celebrate the possibility of an end to the war, chanting and cheering after Hamas accepted an Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal. “This is the first time we’ve seen happiness in the eyes of Gazans since 7 October . . . [following] the martyrdom of 34k women, children, parents, and elders,” Lamis El Hadidi said on her show Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 2:33). Al Hayah Al Youm's Lobna Assal also took to the airwaves to convey the optimism (watch, runtime: 2:57).

But Israel has other plans, says Al Habbash: “I fear Israel will continue its attack on Rafah. Its plan goes beyond the boundaries of repatriating Israeli hostages or false claims of eliminating Hamas,” Palestinian presidential advisor Mahmoud Al Habbash told El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 2:42). “Its goal is to continue uprooting the Palestinian presence and destroying the Palestinian cause," he said, commenting on Israel’s statement that it plans to continue its military operation in Rafah that was issued by the Israeli Prime Minister's office just hours after Hamas announced that it had accepted the ceasefire proposal.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Telecom Egypt eyes USD 500 mn loan from Chinese lender. PLUS: Credit Agricole, Hyundai Rotem, UK Export Finance, ADES, Haier, Islamic Trade Finance Corporation, EgyptAir, Matouk Bassiouny

DEBT-

#1- Telecom Egypt eyes USD 500 mn loan from China to restructure debt: Telecom Egypt is looking to secure USD 500 mn in supplier financing from an unnamed Chinese institution to restructure the company’s credit facilities and meet capital requirements this year, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed sources. The company will reportedly pay for the loan in CNY given that a portion of its revenue stream originates from China.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)


#2- Credit Agricole gets a USD 20 mn boost from the EBRD for green financing: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has greenlit a senior unsecured loan of up to USD 20 mn to Credit Agricole that will be used to support Egyptian households and private MSMEs to back climate adaptation projects, according to an EBRD project summary. Up to USD 3 mn of the funds will be co-financed by the Green Climate Fund.

INVESTMENT-

#1- Hyundai Rotem looks to establish new metro rolling stock factory in the SCZone: South Korean locomotive maker Hyundai Rotem plans to build a new factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) to produce metro rolling stock, a representative from the Hyundai Motor Group subsidiary said during a meeting with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, according to a cabinet statement.


#2- UK Export Finance agrees to fund projects in Egypt: The UK government-backed export credit agency UK Export Finance has signed an MoU with Egypt’s General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) that will allow it to fund projects and enhance trade between both countries, according to a statement from the authority.

ENERGY-

ADES expands Egypt operations with new jack-up rig: Egypt-born regional oil and gas services driller Saudi oil and gas driller ADES Holding was awarded a SAR 161 mn (USD 43 mn) contract by the Suez Oil Company to deploy a jack-up rig in the Suez Canal, the company said in a statement (pdf). The drilling is expected to kick off in the coming weeks under the 21-month agreement.

SOCIAL PROTECTION-

El Sisi raises minimum relief payments for precarious workers: President AbdelFattah El Sisi has ordered the government to raise the minimum relief payments offered to precarious workers from the Emergency Assistance Fund for Workers to EGP 1.5k from EGP 600, according to an Ittihadiya statement. El Sisi made the announcement during a speech he gave at an event to celebrate Labor Day.

LOGISTICS-

Egypt offers up EGP 40 bn worth of investments across eight governorates: Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy announced the offering of 12 new investments for logistic, commercial, administrative, and leisure projects collectively spanning over 405 fedans across eight of Egypt’s governorates, according to a Supply Ministry statement.

MANUFACTURING-

Haier’s ecological park is here: Chinese appliance manufacturer Haier has inaugurated its eco-industrial park in Tenth of Ramadan City, the company said on Thursday in a statement (pdf). The first phase of production at the park — which primarily targets the local market — kicked off in March, rolling out ACs and TV sets, with washing machines expected to be added this month to boost the overall production to more than 900k units a year.

What we know about the park: We first heard about the park — which is designed to have a total production capacity of 1.5 million units a year — in December 2022, when Haier was awarded a golden license to set up a USD 135 mn industrial park for its electrical appliances. Haier Egypt General Manager Ahmed El Gendy said in October that his company has increased its initial investment in the park to USD 160 mn. Construction on the park kicked off in March 2023, with the first phase wrapping up in November.

COMMODITIES-

Egypt wants to secure more funds from the ITFC for essential commodities: The government is seeking to raise its credit limit for essential commodities from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) by 150% to USD 500 mn a year, Asharq Business reported, citing an unnamed government official. The ITFC has approved an immediate release of USD 45 mn to Egypt until the said increase is approved, the official said.

AVIATION-

Cairo-Fujairah flights to kick off in July: EgyptAir will launch direct flights between the UAE’s Fujairah International Airport and Cairo International Airport at a rate of two flights per week on Sundays and Thursdays, starting July, Wam reports.

LAW-

Matouk Bassiouny counsels German ceramics firm on manufacturing its products in Egypt: Law firm Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy (MBH) served as counsel for German ceramics manufacturer Villeroy & Boch on drafting an agreement that will see it manufacture its products in Egypt after teaming up with Keramika Magenta, MBH said in a statement (pdf).

8

PLANET FINANCE

EU calls on China for reciprocal market access as cheap Chinese products flood the bloc

The EU is ready to face China head-on over cheap imports: President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen called on China to work towards a more balanced trade relationship with the European Union during her meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Paris yesterday. Von der Leyen warned that “Europe will not waver from making tough decisions needed to protect its economy and security,” while China is restricting the bloc’s access to its markets and flooding Europe with heavily-subsidized Chinese products, according to a European Commission statement.

But China argues that a clampdown on its imports would harm the global green transition : China’s cheaper green technologies are necessary to further the energy transition, Xi Jinping's Special Envoy for Climate Change Liu Zhenmin told Bloomberg on Thursday. Backlash from the US and EU would result in a “delay in the substitution of fossil fuels by renewables globally,” Liu said, adding that energy transition costs would increase by up to USD 6 tn — equating to a 20% jump — without cheaper Chinese products and technology.

Remember: Tensions over green technology have been brewing for a while between China and the West over the oversupply of cheap solar panels and EVs from China, which has crowded US and European markets and threatened domestic production. The European Commission launched an investigation in September to consider imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese EV imports as a protection measure for local producers.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are in the green this morning as traders in Korea and Japan returned from a long weekend. The sole exception is the Hang Seng. US stock futures were largely unchanged in overnight trading, while European futures are doing a bit better, pointing to a comfortable start to the trading day.

EGX30

26,114

+3.3% (YTD: +4.9%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.89

Sell 48.02

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.90

Sell 48.00

Interest rates CBE

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,373

0.0% (YTD: +3.4%)

ADX

9,035

0.0% (YTD: -5.7%)

DFM

4,156

+0.3% (YTD: +2.4%)

S&P 500

5,181

+1.0% (YTD: +8.6%)

FTSE 100

8,213

+0.5% (YTD: +6.2%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,957

+0.7% (YTD: +9.6%)

Brent crude

USD 83.33

+0.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.19

+2.5%

Gold

USD 2,331.20

+1.0%

BTC

USD 63,476.20

-0.6% (YTD: +50.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 3.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.6 bn (47.1% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net buyers. The index is up 4.9% YTD.

In the green: E-finance (+10.3%), Eastern Company (+9.1%), and Telecom Egypt (+9.1%).

In the red: Beltone Holding (-0.7%) and Egypt Kuwait Holding -EGP (-0.4%).

9

Going Green

The lowdown on solar energy use in the industrial sector

Solar energy use is picking up in the industrial sector: More and more, private sector manufacturers have been setting up solar power stations to power their operations in recent years amid tighter global sustainability regulations and the state’s push for greater private sector involvement. The government in 2022 drew up a plan to phase out its involvement in 45 sectors, including energy infrastructure and renewable energy projects, in a bid to open up space for the private sector to enter these fields. So what does the solar energy landscape look like for private industrial players? And what challenges does it pose?

The latest policy moves: The Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency in March approved a peer-to-peer (P2P) system that will enable private sector energy players to produce and sell renewable energy to other private sector companies through the national grid. The initiative, which will act as a trial phase as part of the country’s plans to transition to a fully open electricity market by 2025, has drawn interest from 20 private sector energy companies.

What’s prompting factories to opt for solar energy? A key driver behind manufacturers shifting to solar energy are efforts to comply with ESG standards and the ability to market their products as green, said Romany Hakeem, the chairman of Beneshty Solar and vice chairman of Sustainable Energy Development Association (SEDA). One regulation that is of particular concern for manufacturers is the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — which imposes a tax on the estimated carbon emissions associated with certain imported goods — said Hakeem. In the near future, cutting emissions will also help local manufacturers make money through carbon credits and tradable certificates representing verified greenhouse gas reductions, he added.

Remember: The government is working to launch Africa’s first voluntary carbon market — a plan which first saw the light in 2022. The Financial Regulatory Authority in March issued the registration and delisting rules for companies looking to sell certified carbon credits on the EGX after authorizing three bodies to verify projects that claim to reduce carbon emissions in February.

Switching to solar power can unlock considerable savings: Each MWh of solar energy currently saves around EGP 2.25 mn per year in electricity costs under the current electricity tariffs, said Hatem Tawfik, the managing director of Cairo Solar and secretary general of the Sustainable Energy Division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce. With successive electricity price hikes expected to take place, the cost saving potential is expected to rise to EGP 3.25 mn over the next five years, he added.

It all boils down to the financial model behind the installation: There are two schools of thought when it comes to the construction of solar power stations, said Tawfik. Some solar energy companies build solar stations at the client’s premises and then sell the electricity produced to the client at around 10% less than what they would pay for public electricity. Under this setup, called a purchase power agreement (PPA), the provider owns and operates the station. While this scenario saves the client steep upfront costs, the long-term financial gain is modest, Tawfik explained, adding that this model is best suited for corporations that are more concerned with corporate social responsibility than cost-cutting.

The alternative: Engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) agreements, on the other hand, are turnkey solutions under which the client purchases and owns the solar facility. Although this type of agreement is capital-intensive, the end user ultimately saves up to 100% — rather than c. 10% — of their electricity bill, depending on how much of their electricity needs the solar station provides, said Tawfik, who is a long-time advocate of this model.

There are effective financing mechanisms for EPC projects: Manufacturers can finance the costs of EPC installations by taking out subsidized loans offered to industrial players. They may then apply for grants from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development amounting to 10% of the loan’s value, Tawfik explained. Investing in solar stations can yield an internal rate of return of around 30% or more with the help of subsidized loans and grants, which together cut back the payback period from 7.35 years to 5 years, he said.

So how much of the energy consumed by factories does solar power cover? Solar energy provides anywhere between 10-100% of manufacturers’ electricity needs, depending on the space they have for installations, their energy consumption, and their financial capacity, Hakeem said. That being said, factories don’t usually meet all of their needs through solar energy because they are major consumers of electricity compared to households, he said.

On the ground: Almarai subsidiary Beyti’s USD 5 mn, 7.6 MWp solar power plant — which came online in 2020 — supplies around 20% of its two factories’ consumption, Corporate Affairs and Communications Director Ghada Fouad said. While for home appliances manufacturer Passap’s refrigerator factory, 50% of the energy comes from its 257 KW solar power station, said Sherif El Sayad, president of Tredco for Engineering Industries.

The challenges of going fully solar: “Full dependence on solar energy is currently not feasible due to the need for extensive battery storage, which significantly impacts costs,” said Yehia Shankir, the director of renewable energy at Elsewedy Electric. Both Fouad and El Sayad believe that it’s theoretically possible to power their operations entirely through solar energy. However, El Sayad cited “the sharp increase in the prices of solar panels due to the devaluation” as the main obstacle to doing so, while Fouad noted that “technological solutions — mainly in battery technology — and more flexible regulations” would be needed.

On the regulatory front, more incentives are needed: To encourage private sector investment in renewables, the government offers incentives like minimizing customs tariffs on renewable equipment imports and VAT on the sale of renewable energy, both Shankir and Fouad said. But more can be done, they suggested. “To further encourage renewable adoption, introducing auction systems like those in Europe and the US and expanding energy spot markets could streamline the process and promote renewable energy utilization,” Shankir said.

Proposals on the table: SEDA has presented proposals to the Electricity Ministry on ways it can incentivize producers to opt for solar energy, Hakeem said. One suggestion is to exempt components imported for solar panels from VAT — as is the case with production equipment — he explained. The Sustainable Energy Division at the Cairo Chamber of Commerce has also proposed that the government roll out a green fund that offers grants and subsidized loans for solar stations, Tawfik said. This fund can be financed through the taxation of energy-intensive products — such as traditional cars and electric heaters — and the money that the government saves as the transition to renewables drives down its natural gas bill.


2024

MAY

19-21 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt International Summit for Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity.

20 May (Monday): Malaysian Palm Oil Forum in Cairo, with attendance from Malaysian Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani.

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

29-30 June (Saturday-Sunday): EU-Egypt Investment Conference.

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday - Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

April 2024: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will visit Turkey.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

1Q 2024: The government is set to finalize the sale of the Gabal El Zeit wind farm.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

March 2024: The USD 2.7 bn MIDOR Refinery is set to begin full operations.

May 2024: Egypt to receive USD 20 bn of Ras El Hekma funds.

May 2024: Arab Finance Ministers’ meeting at Egypt’s administrative capital.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

Mid-year: The fifth Japan-Arab Economic Forum.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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