Finance Ministry mulls postponing international bond issuance program on back of global financial uncertainty

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The US wants American companies to invest in Egyptian ports, but geopolitics, not economics, seems to be driving the push.

Morning all, and welcome to a brand new month. We kick off the second month of the year with equal doses of caution and optimism. In today’s issue, we’ve got an exclusive that the Finance Ministry is mulling pressing pause on its plan to issue international bonds due to the recent uptick in global market volatility, while hot money inflows continue to rise.

This morning’s issue also sees our annual readers’ poll officially brought out of retirement and rebadged as our annual EnterpriseAM Executive Sentiment Survey. Despite headwings, some 94% of you tell us that you see business conditions improving and you don’t seem too bothered about the negative impacts of AI or the global trade war either.

Also in today’s issue is news that record tax gains were outpaced by debt interest increases in 1H 2025-26, a new EGX30 line-up, the first title insurance license approval, the expansion of the state’s subsidized loan program for industry, and more.

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WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
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Watch this space

LOGISTICS — The US wants American companies to invest in Egyptian ports, but geopolitics, not economics, seems to be driving the push. Once again, talk of US investment in Egypt’s maritime infrastructure has been filtering through embassy and government statements, with US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau discussing the topic with Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir during his visit to Egypt last week, according to a ministry statement.

The reason? Washington’s efforts to challenge China’s presence in global waterways, in our view. Landau’s comments — which follow a delegation of US companies led by Ambassador Herro Mustafa Garg in September to “explore” port investments and a joint briefing in April to showcase the sector to investors — come amid Trump administration pressure on ports and waterways across the globe where China has a presence. The US alleges that China’s foothold in maritime logistics erodes the neutrality of the nations hosting the projects, gives China extensive intelligence on US logistics and naval movement, and grants it the ability to leverage its assets to harm US interests, especially during a war.

Securing US port investments may be Egypt’s best play to avoid a more punitive approach from the US, as seen in Panama, where the Trump administration threatened to occupy the waterway and aggressively pushed for the takeover of Chinese-linked assets by groups including Blackrock. Washington has so far pushed Panama’s supreme court to rule that concessions on the Panama Canal held by Chinese-linked firms were unconstitutional and exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative. A similar approach to Egypt would endanger the huge amounts of Chinese investments around the Suez Canal and the many more bns planned.

TAX — The Finance Ministry is finalizing a tiered classification system for corporate taxpayers to extend tailored service packages, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. Companies will be grouped into platinum, gold, and silver categories based on a yet-to-be-confirmed set of criteria, but chief among them is compliance, our source tells us.

What we know so far: The platinum tier will grant eligible companies 30 expedited services, including a fast-track VAT refund processed within a maximum of five working days instead of the current 22 days. Gold and silver tiers will grant scaled-down versions of these services based on governance rules currently being discussed and drafted.

Why it matters: The classification system will operate alongside recent tax facilitation packages to improve collection efficiency and streamline administrative hurdles, our source says, supporting the state’s target of raising tax revenues by 1-2% of GDP annually by 2030.

IPO watch

Gourmet Egypt has priced its IPO at the top end of its range at EGP 6.90 per share, wrapping up its bookbuilding process that saw its private tranche oversubscribed 12.2x, according to an announcement (pdf). The offer price gives the premium grocer a market cap of EGP 2.76 bn.

The subscription window for institutional investors closed on Thursday, while retail investors still have until Wednesday. We can expect trading to start “on or around Monday, 9 February.”

Gourmet listed on the EGX last month, under the ticker GOUR.CA.

“This level of demand reflects Gourmet’s solid market position, its commitment to quality, and its ability to meet the needs of premium, quality-conscious consumers,” Gourmet Chairman Michael Wright said.

Why it matters: A good IPO would prove the EGX is a real alternative to strategic sales for PE outfits facing pressure to return liquidity to their limited partners.

ADDING TO THE IPO PIPELINE- Tatweer Misr to IPO next year? Real estate developer Tatweer Misr aims to bolster its financial and operational position leading up to a listing on the EGX or the entry of a strategic investor by 2027 as part of a five-year plan, CEO Ahmed Shalaby told Asharq Business.

Expansion plans: The developer is currently in advanced negotiations over a piece of land in Oman, Shalaby said, adding that the company is also looking to acquire more plots locally.

Project update

The UK-based Polar Hydro hiked the price tag for its plannedwaste-to-energy project in Giza to USD 4.2 bn under an MoU inked to implement the project, according to an Environment Ministry statement. The project to rehabilitate the old Shabramant dump, process at least 5k tons of waste per day, and convert accumulated waste into biofuels, fertilizers, and other export-oriented products under a private freezone model first came to our attention in December with a USD 2.5 bn investment ticket.

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News triggers

It’s the first week of February — here are the key news triggers to keep your eyes on this month:

Non-oil private sector activity to continue in the green for the third straightmonth?The private sector is eagerly awaiting S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index report for January on Tuesday, after the index pushed into the green for the last two months — a feat achieved only twice since November 2020.
The business community and policymakers will have their eyes on January’s inflation figures — due on 10 February — for early clues on how the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will act at its monetary policy meeting just two days later. The country’s last monthly reading showed annual headline urban inflation unchanged at 12.3% despite food and beverages price increases, emboldening forecasts that inflation is set to continue making decent progress toward the CBE’s target of 7% (±2%) by the end of 2026.
Will the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee kick off 2026 with another interest rate cut? The central bank’s committee in charge of monetary policy will meet on 12 February to decide on the pace of the interest rate cycle, after cutting rates by 100 bps at its last meeting. The year ahead should see the central bank put its rate-cutting cycle up a gear, Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena has previously told EnterpriseAM, expecting another 800 bps worth of cuts to come to bring down real interest rates to 1-2%.

Morning must read

The greenback’s tough start to the year “if sustained, would boost the near-term economic outlook for Egypt,” Capital Economics argues in a report assessing the impact of depreciating USD on the region. Egypt “stands out as a key beneficiary [in the region] of a weaker USD,” argues the research firm, pointing to the EGP’s 9% appreciation against the USD since May and its knock-on impact on import price inflation — which in turn provides breathing room for interest rate cuts.

A weaker USD also means more manageable public debt repayments, 40% of which are denominated in FX, with the USD playing an oversized role in this, the firm notes. “Alongside a sizable primary budget surplus, declining local currency bond yields, and strong nominal GDP, this will help to sustain the public debt ratio on its downward path,” the agency adds.

Data point

EGP 15.7 tn — that’s the total value of securities traded in the local market last year, up from EGP 2.3 tn in 2024, according to a statement from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA). Treasury bills and bonds accounted for the lion’s share at EGP 13.1 tn, while stocks traded on the EGX totaled EGP 2.4 tn.

The year also saw the markets welcome 299k new investors, which FRA chief Mohamed Farid said reflected “the growing confidence of investors in the market as a result of reform and regulatory policies.”

PSA-

WEATHER- The mercury is rising in Cairo today, with a welcome high of 26°C and a low of 16°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s also getting hotter in Alexandria, with a high of 26°C and a low of 15°C.

The big story abroad

News of BTC’s steep price drop has caught the attention of the global press, as a wider selloff afflicted several major cryptocurrencies. Yesterday, BTC fell to its lowest level since April 2025, plunging below USD 80k, attributed to a failure to attract buying interest despite conditions that historically would have been supportive, namely the backsliding greenback. The dip wiped out some USD 111 bn off the crypto market’s total value in a single 24 hour period, according to data by CoinGecko.

AND- What could Trump’s Fed chair nomination mean for the central bank? The Federal Reserve may be looking at a “regime change” once US President Donald Trump’s pick for the chief position, former Fed governor and Wall Street veteran Kevin Warsh, replaces current Fed chair Jay Powell. Warsh has been critical of the Fed for gradually expanding its role beyond its original mandate. Markets are also expecting him to balk at the aggressive rate cuts called for by Trump.

Warsh is considered by some to be a “pragmatist” whose historical disposition against inflation is unlikely to result in unwarranted cuts that allow overheating of the economy, Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long told Reuters. That said, more clarity on his future policy decisionmaking is still needed. Warsh’s nomination is yet to be approved by the Senate.

ALSO WORTH READING- Investors are scrambling to reprice loans to software firms as the AI boom threatens digital products with obsolescence. Despite widespread optimism in debt markets, a loan sell off has hit software players, including Cloudera, which saw pricing on one of its loans drop by USD 0.07 last week. The stakes are especially high in light of software accounting for 12% of the credits in the Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index.

From world-class tennis with the ATP Challenger 75, to the kickoff of upcoming football camps and hosted experiences, Somabay brings together premium hospitality, natural surroundings, and world-class sports infrastructure, creating an environment where focus, movement, and recovery happen seamlessly.

It is a destination designed for athletes, teams, and partners, where sport, lifestyle, and community align, and where sport lives beyond the game.

Egypt could postpone international bond issuance program due to global financial uncertainty

Egypt’s plan to raise USD 1.5-2 bn from eurobonds this month may be put on hold, with the Finance Ministry cautious of recently unpredictable global markets, a volatile USD, and gold reaching new heights, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. Current market conditions could delay international issuances until global markets stabilize and the timing becomes more favorable for Egypt to return to international markets, the source added.

Before the US-EU spat over Greenland unnerved financial markets, momentum for the sale and expectations of attractive yields had been strong on the back of improving economic indicators domestically, a decline in sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, and lower perceived default risk, we were told.

Why it matters: No country is an island or immune to prevailing global trends. By adopting this cautious approach, the Finance Ministry is protecting itself from exposure to costly borrowing, opting instead to explore lower-cost alternatives, including bonds backed by international institutions and sovereign sukuk.

But while future international bond issuance activity may take a back seat for the time being, there’s plenty of action from hot money inflows. Investments across both the primary and secondary markets are seeing a massive uptick amid global market disruptions, our source tells us. This follows foreign holdings of Egyptian local debt rising USD 4 bn in 2025 to USD 45 bn as rates on local sovereign debt fell 50-100 bps, indicating that investors are seeing Egypt as a stable high-carry trade amid uncertainty in Western markets.

Confidence returns to the business community with 94% expecting better business conditions in 2026 -EnterpriseAM Executive Sentiment Survey

Our annual readers’ poll is back after a hiatus and it looks like the business community is finally shaking off years of economic pessimism and daring to be optimistic as we begin 2026. Before we jump into the results of our Annual EnterpriseAM Executive Sentiment Survey, we want to say a big, big thank you to all those who took part in the poll.

It seems that almost all of you are entering 2026 with an optimistic step in your stride, with 94.1% of you either agreeing or strongly agreeing with the statement that business conditions will improve in 2026. Those who strongly agreed accounted for a sizable 27.5%.

This follows a few difficult years and a whole lot of pessimism from the business community. Policymakers will be happy to hear that it seems reforms and the often hard choices are paying off, as only 2% of you disagreed and 4% didn’t know.

The community also looks back on the first full year following the float of the EGP in a broadly positive light, with 92.2% of you telling us you either agree or strongly agree.

Bureaucracy and government regulation was the clear front runner as the biggest issue facing your businesses today with 39.2% of the vote, reflecting that while progress has been made doing business in Egypt remains tricky for many of us. The interest rate environment despite recent cuts ranked as the second most widespread concern with 27.5% of the vote.

But for 25.5% of you, finding and retaining talented employees ranked as your biggest challenge, a theme we’re starting to hear a lot more now that more immediate economic challenges are easing. Just 2.0% of you signalled taxation as the key problem, while 2.0% pointed to FX access as your biggest issue.

Challenges or not, a good 76.5% of you say your businesses will increase their investments here in Egypt this year, while only 5.9% say it’s unlikely and 13.7% say you don’t know.

But it seems you’re all waiting for rates to fall before you look to debt to fund expansion, with a 16-17% overnight lending rate as the highest some of you will tolerate before making the move. The sweet spot seems to be 10-13%, which had some 25.0% of the vote.

Most of you seemed to be unsure whether the government is sympathetic to the needs of the private sector, with 39.2% telling us neither agree nor disagree with the statement. However, a much larger percentage of you agreed with the statement than disagreed, with 37.3% of you either agreeing or strongly agreeing against 23.5% that disagreed or strongly disagreed.

A majority of 66.7% of you see the EGP staying where it is against the greenback or improving by the end of 2026, including an optimistic 2.0% that think the EGP could strengthen to 43 against the USD. While a fair few of you see the EGP depreciating this year, the weakest you think it will go is only as far as 51 against the greenback.

While 98.0% of you don’t see inflation getting worse, only 17.7% see inflation falling within the central banks target of 7% (±2%) by the end of 2026. Most see inflation ending the year at 10% with 31.4% of the vote, but a surprisingly large 29.4% see inflation standing about where it is now after 12 months.

The great AI shake up is coming and only 7.8% think it will harm your company. A collective 58.8% either agree or strongly agree that AI will be a net positive to your business, but many of you seem to think it won’t have much of an effect on you, with 27.5% neither agreeing or disagreeing with the statement.

Despite the global tariff war continuing to dominate the pages of the international business press, it seems the Egyptian business community is unfazed, with 52.9% of you telling us that the global tariff wars will have no impact on your business. In fact, more of you told us that it will help your business, not hinder it.

Debt interest eats up record tax gains in 1H 2025-26

Interest payments on public debt were up 34.6% y-o-y in 1H FY 2025-26 to EGP 1.3 tn on the back of higher overall debt levels and borrowing costs, according to the Finance Ministry’s latest financial performance report.

The spike in debt servicing costs effectively eclipsed a record tax collection, which jumped 32.1% y-o-y to EGP 1.2 tn during the six-month period. Increased tax collection pushed total budget revenues up 30.2% y-o-y to EGP 1.4 tn alongside a 12.8% jump in non-tax revenues to EGP 177.5 bn.

Despite efforts to curtail public spending increases, total public spending rose 26.9% y-o-y to EGP 2.2 tn, which the ministry attributed to a mix of rising wages, subsidies, and state investments, alongside debt service costs.

The result? The overall budget deficit widened 0.2 percentage points to 4.2% of GDP for the period, coming in at EGP 881.73 bn.

Why this matters: The government is running a tight ship on operations, but until interest rates fall significantly, the record tax checks you’re writing are going straight to the banks, not into the ground.

What’s next? The market is waiting for the Public Debt Strategy, which is expected to be out very soon. We expect the Ministry to outline a pivot away from expensive, short-term T-bills toward longer-tenor bonds now that interest rates have likely peaked. This will be followed by the Tax Policy Document, which must find a way to keep revenue growing without stifling a private sector that is already reeling from high costs.

Inside Sokna’s push to bring tech to Egypt’s funeral services sector

Coffee with Ahmed Gaballah, founder and CEO of Sokna: When Ahmed Gaballah left Silicon Valley to build Egypt’s first funeral services startup, many couldn’t quite wrap their heads around what the former Google and Facebook guy was thinking, especially at a time when tech startups in Egypt were taking off. Seven years on, Sokna has become part of what happens instinctively when loss strikes — operating across the country, partnering with hospitals, embassies, and syndicates, and quietly applying data and technology to one of the most traditional sectors in the world. We sat with Gaballah to talk about Sokna’s upcoming cemetery project, the technology push planned for 2026, and how the company is preparing for global expansion.

EnterpriseAM: When we first met in 2021, people used to call you the crazy guy who left Silicon Valley to become an undertaker in Egypt. Do they still see you that way?

Ahmed Gaballah: Today it’s very different. When a funeral happens, people say, “How did you not call Sokna?” It’s become part of what people instinctively do when death occurs. Growth came from people seeing the team on the ground and valuing the service. About three years ago, we hit a tipping point — awareness snowballed and growth became organic. That’s net promoter score in action. Traditional marketing doesn’t work in a space this sensitive.

EnterpriseAM: Let’s go back to the beginning. You started around seven years ago?

Gaballah: March 2019 exactly. We were three people and handled 19 funerals that year. I was the funeral director; the other two focused on research. We worked in Egypt, then traveled to seven countries — Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and others — to study how funerals operate. We attended funerals, ran surveys, spoke to families, and shadowed undertakers. By the end of 2019, we had built a 14-step professional funeral process. In January 2020, we hired our first team — six people — and officially launched Sokna.

EnterpriseAM: Did you start with friends and family?

Gaballah: Of course not. You can’t ask friends to call you when someone dies. We tried everything. We spoke to doormen in Zamalek, handed out cards — it didn’t work. Condolence halls were too late. Health offices didn’t work.

Eventually, we realized hospitals were the real entry point. So we went to hospitals and spoke to security. 99% rejected us. Three kids with notebooks — one just back from the US — saying we’d organize funerals. Until one person gave us a chance and made a call. That was our first case. We were working out of my house. When the call came, we rushed — the fastest drive of my life.

EnterpriseAM: Coming from Silicon Valley, you chose a business that isn’t inherently tech-driven. How does it scale?

Gaballah: In the beginning I was thinking of making the classic mistake: app first. After coordinating the first 19 funerals myself, I realized people in grief will not download an app. You can’t build technology for its own sake and force it onto people.

At Sokna, technology works in the background — dispatching, prediction, data tracking, decision-making. Internally, it’s everywhere. Externally, the only question is what genuinely helps the customer.

This year, we’ll launch technology-driven products that make the experience easier and allow us to scale beyond Egypt. Death is universal. The challenge is finding where technology is relevant across cultures without physical presence, we believe that can be built from Egypt.

EnterpriseAM: Did demand ever exceed your capacity?

Gaballah: Always, even now. The difference is how we manage it. At the core is a supply–demand equation. We know our historical data precisely — how many services we delivered and how organic growth evolves.

We also model future demand. When we enter a partnership, we study historical death rates at that hospital. Geographically, it’s the same logic. If we expand into a new area, we can predict demand using seven years of data — population size, hospitals, death rates.

The models tell us when to hire. If the signal is 100 people, we hire 100 — not 200. Demand here is inelastic, so efficiency matters. If we expect 100 cases and get 110, we activate trained on-call teams. They handle low-risk tasks, like permits, while the funeral director retains ownership. When that contingency pool gets used frequently, that’s the signal to hire full-time staff.

EnterpriseAM: Have you become profitable?

Gaballah: We’ve been profitable for years now. From 2019 to 2021, I self-funded the company. I was working in Silicon Valley and wasn’t worried about money. When we made a fund round in 2022, capital wasn’t the goal. I wanted two things: external validation from strategic investors who understand execution, and if we later enter cemeteries, I want real estate investors who can help execute.

I initially wanted to raise USD 300k. Demand reached USD 1.5 mn. The entire raise took 10 days. I ran it on a strict schedule: 20-minute pitch, four to five days of due diligence, a hard deadline, and one week to sign and fund.

We brought in top US and regional VCs, including Mentors Fund, ACE & Company, KV Ventures — plus long-term real estate figures, and top technology leaders who led design across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

EnterpriseAM: You operate across all governorates. Is Egypt really multicultural when it comes to funeral rituals?

Gaballah: Extremely. This space is hyper-local — between governorates, neighborhoods, even families. We initially thought we could standardize the service. That was wrong.

People experience death very differently. Some want speed, others wait for family. Some want precise rituals; others want minimal intervention. The bigger difference is emotional response — anger, denial, confusion, peace. The challenge is understanding what someone needs, often without them saying it, and very quickly. This isn’t a product problem. It’s a human one.

Globally, three variables define every market: religion, culture, and legal framework. Markets differ sharply, but there are proxy markets with shared traits.

EnterpriseAM: Does this feed into global expansion?

Gaballah: Yes, and even to operate properly in Egypt we had to understand this deeply. It’s one of the most fascinating research areas I’ve worked on — the intersection of religion, culture, and death.

From the start, Sokna has attended the world’s largest funeral directors’ gathering — the NFDA conference in the US. Every time we go, major global players approach us. They follow our work and are impressed by our data-driven model and clear technology roadmap.

Technology has barely entered this space — even in the US. These multi-bn companies remain highly traditional. That’s the opportunity: to enter, reshape the sector, and get incumbents to adopt what we’re building by proving that our technology delivers real value.

EnterpriseAM: But no one has come with a direct deal.

Gaballah: No, and we don’t want that. We want to grow globally.

** Want more? Part two of our conversation with Gaballah will be published in tomorrow’s issue of EnterpriseAM — stay tuned.

Edita, Kima, Heliopolis Housing, and Orascom Investment Holding join the EGX30 in semi-annual shuffle

EGX30 is getting a facelift on 1 February, with its latest semi-annual set to say goodbye to four new constituents that will exit the benchmark EGX30 index and be replaced by four newcomers, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf).

Who’s out: It’s a tough review for the petrochemicals and banking sectors. Sidpec, Mopco, and Credit Agricole are all departing the index, alongside real estate player Madinet Masr.

Who’s in: Taking their places are snacks giant Edita, Heliopolis Housing, Kima, and Orascom Investment Holding.

Why it matters: Funds that track the EGX30 are mandated to reflect these changes. Expect selling pressure on the exits and buying interest in the entrants as portfolio managers rebalance their holdings to match the new weights by the start of next month.

Sound smart: The EGX30 selects the market’s top 30 companies primarily based on liquidity and activity, filtering for firms that trade on at least 95% of sessions and meet strict thresholds for freefloat, turnover ratio, and daily trading value. Eligible candidates are ranked by their average daily trading value, with the top 27 automatically qualifying and the final three spots selected from those ranked 28-33 — prioritizing existing constituents to ensure index stability. To preserve diversity, no single sector is allowed more than five representatives.

** Want to dive deeper? Check the eligibility criteria here (pdf).

Amr Adib on where you should be investing this year

As the prices of gold and silver see major fluctuations, El Hekaya’s Amr Adib gave his viewers some investment advice: “do nothing.” He also warned his viewers against making ill-considered investment decisions this year.

What about those looking to invest in real estate? Adib hinted at a period of stagnation in the local real estate market. He spoke to Talaat Moustafa Group chairman Hisham Talaat Moustafa, who pushed back against any suggestion that real estate prices could decline.

Moustafa stressed that Egypt’s real estate market is fundamentally cost driven, and the price of land, steel, cement, and labor all on the rise — a view that echoed what we heard from multiple developers during last week’s AmCham real estate conference. Moustafa argued that this dynamic automatically underpins the value of existing fully finished units, particularly in a market supported by strong demographic demand.

Sarwa Ins. becomes the first insurer to get the green light to issue and activate title ins. policies

Sarwa Ins. beats GIG to the finish line with Egypt’s first title ins. approval

Sarwa Ins. became the first insurer in Egypt to receive final regulatory approval from the Financial Regulatory Authority to issue and activate title ins. policies, according to a company statement seen by EnterpriseAM. The move positions the ins. arm of Contact Financial Holding as a first-mover in a segment expected to unlock liquidity from international investors.

“We are laying the foundation for a new phase of financial maturity in which [ins.] plays the role of a strategic enabler, granting investors and international institutions full confidence in the safety and viability of their assets,” said Contact Financial Holding CEO John Saad.

Gov’t expands 15% subsidized lending initiative to new industries

The cabinet greenlit the expansion of its subsidized 15%interest rate loan program to include the pharma, engineering, food, chemicals, mining, construction materials and refractories, leather, metals, and spinning, weaving, and ready-made garment industries, according to a cabinet statement.

Under the newly approved amendments, the government increased the financing limits to accommodate larger industrial projects. The maximum loan limit per client has been raised to EGP 100 mn, while the limit for related parties now stands at EGP 150 mn.

China’s Guide Automotive Technology to build EV, battery, and water desalination membrane factory

Guide Group subsidiary Guide Automotive Technology became the latest Chinese manufacturer to commit to setting up shop in Egypt with a USD 63.9 mn factory, which will produce electric vehicles, batteries, and membranes for water purification and desalination in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, the authority said in a statement. The project is expected to create 1k direct jobs and will be developed in three stages, starting with two-, three-, and four-wheeled electric vehicles.

More Egyptian-assembled Chinese cars to hit the market

Another Chinese auto player is setting up shop here: Chinese automaker Kaiyi Motors will start assembling some of its models locally, under a contract inked with its local agent yesterday. The move is expected to reduce production costs and in turn offer models at more competitive prices locally and support future exports to regional markets.

In line with our automotive localization efforts: The Madbouly government has made it a priority to localize the assembly of vehicles as the first step in its plan to truly localize the automotive sector. It updated the Automotive Industry Development Program last year with the goal of attracting more investments and deepening the localization of the sector.

Aman Consumer Finance closes EGP 867.5 mn securitized bond issuance

Aman Consumer Finance wrapped up an EGP 867.5 mn securitized bond issuance, according to a statement from financial advisor CI Capital. The bond came in four tranches with tenors ranging from 6 to 36 months, receiving ratings of P1 to AA+ by Meris.

ADVISORS- CI Capital acted as the financial advisor, issuance manager, bookrunner, and lead arranger. Zaki Hashem & Partners provided counsel, and United for Auditing, Tax, Advisory & Financial Services was the financial auditor.

Fed says no rate cut this time around

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its meeting last week, putting on hold a monetary easing cycle that saw three consecutive rate cuts late last year. The key rate remains unchanged at 3.5-3.75%.

“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization,” the Fed said in a statement.

The AI effect: When asked about the divergence between strong GDP growth and a soft labor market during the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it may be down to increased productivity, and that AI may have played a role. He cautioned that reading the labor market is difficult because of the unusual situation where both the demand and the supply of labor have fallen, due to lower immigration and slower job growth.

Powell is facing a barrage of attacks from the Trump administration. The war between the White House and the Fed turned into a legal showdown this month as Powell publicly attacked a DOJ probe into HQ renovations his office ordered, calling it a “pretext” for President Trump to force interest rate cuts.

The tussle saw Powell make rare political statements during the press conference. He advised the Fed chair set to replace him to stay out of elected politics and engage with Congress members on both sides of the aisle. Powell’s tenure is set to end later this year, unless Trump follows through with his wild threats and fires the independent institution’s head.

Powell also confirmed he will attend the hearing for the legal case against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, calling it “the most important legal case in the Fed’s 113-year history.” The Supreme Court will decide whether Trump can fire a Fed governor, with the ruling set to have wide implications on the Fed’s independence.

What’s next? Markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year starting in July, which means the two remaining meetings in Powell’s term are expected to stay the course.

EGX30	47,786	-0.1% (YTD: +14.2%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 46.85	Sell 46.98
USD (CIB)	Buy 46.85	Sell 46.95
Interest rates (CBE)	20.00% deposit	21.00% lending
Tadawul	11,382	-0.7% (YTD: +8.5%)
ADX	10,282	-0.8% (YTD: +2.9%)
DFM	6,435	-0.7% (YTD: +6.4%)
S&P 500	6,939	-0.4% (YTD: +1.4%)
FTSE 100	10,224	+0.5% (YTD: +2.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,948	+1.0% (YTD: +2.7%)
Brent crude	USD 69.32	-0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.35	+11.1%
Gold	USD 4,745	-11.4%
BTC	USD 78,178	-7.2% (YTD: -10.8%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,013	+0.1% (YTD: +2.0%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	151.48	-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	17.44	+3.3% (YTD: +16.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.1% at Wednesday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.5 bn (35.3% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 14.2% YTD.

In the green: Credit Agricole (+2.6%), Eastern Company (+2.2%), and Madinet Masr (+1.9%).

In the red: Egypt Aluminum (-3.7%), Ibnsina Pharma (-2.9%), and Rameda (-2.5%).

CALENDAR

2026

FEBRUARY

3 February (Tuesday): S&P Global to release PMI figures for January.

3 February (Tuesday): Capital Markets Summit

10 February (Tuesday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for January.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting of 2026.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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