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Monday, 2 Feb 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Commodities
A Message From Vodafone Egypt
Coffee With
Capital Markets
Transport
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar

Finance Ministry eyes AI and cross-settlement to unlock corporate liquidity

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Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

FinMin taps AI for real estate pricing, revamps central clearing in second tax facilitation package.
2

Commodities

Gov’t opens sugar export taps for first time in three years to drain 1 mn ton glut.
3

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Bosta may soon be delivering itself to the EGX.
4

Transport

Alexandria Metro works begin as ministry eyes New Abu Qir high-speed rail link.
5

Coffee With

Sokna CEO Ahmed Gaballah on the startup’s cemetery project.
6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Alexbank, Blu EV launch EV microfinancing, HAP’s big investment push, and Beltone’s Moroccan ticket.
7

PLANET FINANCE

USD rebound sends gold crashing.
8

BLACKBOARD

The state sets a 20% market share target for private schools by 2030 in its National Narrative for Comprehensive Development.

Monday, 2 Feb 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Commodities
A Message From Vodafone Egypt
Coffee With
Capital Markets
Transport
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Bosta may soon be delivering itself to the EGX

A warm morning to you all, and welcome to another packed issue with everything from AI-driven tax reforms to a potential IPO listing coming to the EGX soon, to a fundamental shift in how the state views the private sector’s role in education.

Leading the issue is news that the Finance Ministry is moving beyond mere talk of tax facilitation with a second tax package that leans heavily on technical fixes to unlock corporate liquidity. By revamping the central clearing system to allow cross-settlement of debts and deploying AI for real estate valuation, the state is attempting to widen the tax base and settle legacy disputes.

Also in today’s issue is news that the state’s three year on sugar exports has come to a close, Bosta alleged to be eyeing an IPO, part two of our sit down with Sokna CEO Ahmed Gaballah, and much more.

***

WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
***

Watch this spacet

IPO — Bosta may soon be delivering itself to the EGX. The parcel delivery company is reportedly looking to list 20-30% of its equity capital by year-end in an EGP 8 bn float, Asharq Business reports, citing a source it says is in the know. The potential IPO of the company that has an estimated 20% share of the domestic parcel delivery market, with 50 warehouses and a courier network of around 8k riders would mark the EGX’s first listing of a pure-play parcel delivery company.

The potential listing comes as Egypt’s IPO market shows signs of revival, with Gourmet’slistingalready in progress, speculation that Capital Med may be making its debut, and Banque du Caire having tested the waters for a spring listing. Additionally, officials have highlighted a pipeline of approximately 13 more government-backed companies set to follow suit.

Bosta’s IPO track is running alongside a USD 32 mn funding round, following roughly USD 27 mn raised since launch, according to the outlet.

The speculation comes hot on the heels of the logistics firm launching a new USD 5 mn automated sorting machine last week, according to a statement (pdf) from the company. The machine, which is among the first-of-its-kind in the region, can handle more than 250k parcels per day.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the MENA-IndiaCorridor?

Happening tomorrow

Non-oil private-sector activity to remain in the green for the third straightmonth?The private sector is eagerly awaiting S&P Global’s January Purchasing Managers’ Index report tomorrow, after the index pushed into the green for the last two months — a feat achieved only twice before since November 2020.

The annual Capital Markets Summit kicks off tomorrow under the theme “Financial Technology: The Path to Investment Inclusion.” The one-day event features appearances from senior figures from the private and public sectors, including Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk, Beltone’s Khalil El Bawab, CI Capital’s Mahmoud Khalifa, EGX’s Islam Aazam, Thndr’s Ahmed Hammouda, and Contact Financial Holding’s John Saad.

Data point

EGP 4 bn — that’s the total value of attempted financial fraud thwarted in 2025, up 268% y-o-y, according to a statement from the central bank. Over the same period, a total of EGP 116.8 mn was paid in compensation to victims of fraud, compared to EGP 6.5 mn a year earlier, marking a 1.7k% y-o-y increase.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s set to be a hazy day in Cairo today, with a high of 24°C and a low of 14°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a cloudy day over in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 12°C.

Circle your calendar-

RiseUp Summit kicks off on Thursday, bringing together up to 20k attendees from founders, investors, and professionals to talk all things startups under the theme “The Turning Point.” The event — running until Saturday — will be held at the Grand Egyptian Museum. You can book your ticket on the event’s official website.

The big story abroad

It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global business press, with one story dominating the headlines — the gold and silver crash. Bloomberg is out with a piece looking at the role Chinese speculators played in the metals’ rally and subsequent crash. The rally seen by gold, sustained over years by central banks hedging against potential losses from the USD, was intensified in recent weeks by a wave of buying from Chinese investors and equity funds.

Then came the selloff: As soon as the greenback started heading upwards, boosted by news of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, Shanghai cashed out its holdings in gold. The fallout saw the metal dropping at one point by more than USD 200 an ounce in ten minutes.

Silver was another casualty of the sudden twist of fate, dropping by 27% on Friday — its biggest drop on record.

^^ We have more on the rebound of the USD and gold crash in this morning’s Planet Finance.

CLOSER TO HOME- Egypt, Qatar, Turkey to broker US-Iran talks this week: The Trump administration is reportedly open to a diplomatic solution with Iran, as Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey work to broker a sitdown in Ankara this week, Axios reported, citing sources it says are in the know. Negotiations would involve a meeting between White House envoy Steve Witkoff and high level Iranian officials to discuss averting the breakout of a regional war.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi urged Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to take a meeting with US officials over a phone call last Saturday. El Sisi emphasized that a peaceful resolution is necessary to settle the issue of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at the government’s education strategy for 2030 in the recently released second edition of the National Narrative for Comprehensive Development and the problems we’re going to face meeting them.

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From world-class tennis with the ATP Challenger 75, to the kickoff of upcoming football camps and hosted experiences, Somabay brings together premium hospitality, natural surroundings, and world-class sports infrastructure, creating an environment where focus, movement, and recovery happen seamlessly.

It is a destination designed for athletes, teams, and partners, where sport, lifestyle, and community align, and where sport lives beyond the game.

2

The Big Story Today

FinMin taps AI for real estate pricing, revamps central clearing in second tax facilitation package

The Finance Ministry has finalized updates to the central clearing system and is preparing an AI-driven real estate valuation framework as part of the soon to be released second tax reform package, government sources told EnterpriseAM. The measures aim to unlock corporate liquidity and settle legacy disputes by streamlining how the state and taxpayers balance their books.

Why it matters: The package is a pillar of the Madbouly government’s strategy to lure foreign direct investment and boost tax revenues by 1-2% of GDP in the coming fiscal year. The goal is to hit these targets by widening the tax base and improving efficiency rather than hiking rates.

The updated system will allow for seamless credit and debit cross-settlements between a taxpayer’s entitlements and liabilities across all government entities, according to our sources. Crucially, the system will stop calculating delay interest starting from the date the debt was originally due to the taxpayer, significantly lowering settlement costs and providing immediate liquidity to firms, the sources added.

For the first time, the ministry will deploy AI to price real estate and activate a risk-based system to verify contract validity, our sources revealed. While the real estate transaction tax remains at 2.5%, it will be calculated based on the AI system’s indicative prices if a significant discrepancy is found in submitted contracts, aiming to curb manipulation and ensure fiscal fairness, the sources noted.

New legislation is also in the works to expand the flat tax regime for SMEs, with projects with a turnover under EGP 20 mn to benefit from the flat tax for the 2023 and 2024 tax years, our sources said.

The ministry is studying a hike in the total income tax exemption threshold for individuals to EGP 100k–120k next fiscal year, up from the current EGP 60k. This is notably higher than the EGP 80k threshold previously under consideration, the two sources told us.

What’s next? Six legislative amendments for the proposed changes have been finalized and will be submitted to parliament once the rounds of community dialogue are completed. But passing the amendments may take some time, our sources tell us, with the package expected to come into effect after the end of the tax season on 30 April in order to protect current revenue collection cycles while giving the tax community a window to digest and apply for the new incentives.

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3

Commodities

Egypt opens sugar export taps for first time in three years to drain 1 mn ton glut

The government has officially resumed sugar exports to help local producers clear a massive 1-mn-ton inventory surplus, Federation of Egyptian Industries Sugar Division head Hassan El Fendi tells EnterpriseAM. With a 10-month strategic reserve in place and the beet harvest beginning, the decision to reverse the export ban after three years is designed to provide an immediate liquidity injection for state and private factories struggling with high overheads.

Why this matters: The decision to permit exports comes as a response to producer demands. With local production costs exceeding global prices and delays in the financing initiatives requested by the sector, exporting has become the sole lifeline for refineries to generate liquidity and avoid bankruptcy. The timing is also not coincidental, with the ban on raw sugar imports set to expire this month, threatening to flood the domestic market with even more low-cost supply.

The current abundance “negates any feasibility of continuing the export ban,” and further ensures domestic price stability even during the peak consumption period of Ramadan, Al Fendi said. The Trade Ministry’s committee overseeing the sugar trade will meet periodically to review permitted export volumes, ensuring no sudden shortages occur in the local market.

What’s next? The primary challenge now lies in the companies’ ability to compete in foreign markets at current low global prices. This may soon lead to calls for export subsidies to compensate for the disparity in local production costs.

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4

A MESSAGE FROM VODAFONE EGYPT

Vodafone Business Next Summit 2026 in Aswan: business leaders explore the future of business

As Egypt accelerates toward its Vision 2030 goals, digital transformation is no longer a future ambition. It is a present-day imperative shaping how organizations compete, grow, and deliver value. At the Vodafone Business Next Summit 2026, held in the heart of Aswan from 28-30 January, business and technology leaders gathered to reimagine what it takes to build resilient, future-ready enterprises in a rapidly evolving digital landscape.

Centered around the theme The NEXT Enterprise: Re-imagine your Business for 2030, the summit offered a strategic view of the global and local technology trends redefining industries, from cloud and AI to cybersecurity, IoT, and integrated digital solutions. Through the keynote strategic co-creation forum, insights, and expert-led discussions, attendees explored how the rapid evolution of technology, market dynamics, and innovation is converging to reshape how organizations operate and scale.

The agenda began with a welcome note from Mahmoud El Khateeb, Vodafone Business Executive Director, providing insights into how technology and business trends are shaping the future of digital transformation.

The experience extended beyond the main stage into a hands-on co-creation workshop where participants moved from strategy to execution. Guided by digital transformation experts, business leaders engaged with practical frameworks and tools that can be applied immediately within their own organizations as they plan for 2030 and beyond.

As the summit comes to an end, its influence extends beyond the venue, impacting the strategies leaders will implement in their organizations and the partnerships that will define future developments. The Vodafone Business Next Summit 2026 provides more than just insights; it offers a collaborative blueprint for how enterprises in Egypt can successfully navigate the next phase of digital growth.

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5

Coffee With

Sokna CEO Ahmed Gaballah on why hospitals and others are now seeking out the startup rather than the other way around

Coffee with Ahmed Gaballah, founder and CEO of Sokna: In part one of our conversation with Gaballah — which you can check out here — we discussed Sokna’s upcoming cemetery project, the technology push planned for 2026, and how the company is preparing for global expansion. In part two, we dive deeper into how the funeral services startup looks to partner with hospitals, embassies, and others to expand, how they’ve worked to build trust with clients, and what’s next for the company.

EnterpriseAM: You’ve built a strong network of partnerships. How did that happen?

Ahmed Gaballah: Sokna is purpose-driven before anything else. We don’t do partnerships for the sake of business. We focus on three values, the first of which is accessibility, by serving different financial and social segments.

Second is cultural respect. Public figures and artists who contributed to society deserve funerals that reflect their value, always with the family’s full approval. The family decides, but honoring these individuals matters to us as a community.

Third, building a service that can work beyond Egypt. We don’t copy models country by country. We study similarities — religion, culture, legal frameworks — and expand responsibly.

Today, we operate in most major hospitals across Greater Cairo. Corporate partnerships came next, but at first, we underestimated them. Traditionally, companies supported employees during happy moments — marriage, childbirth. Over time, they realized that standing by employees during loss builds long-term loyalty. That’s when companies began reaching out to us.

We also partnered with embassies for cross-border cases, and with professional syndicates — including the Actors’ Syndicate and the Journalists’ Syndicate — to manage funerals for members and public figures with coordination and dignity.

Over seven years, we estimate we’ve helped around 1 mn people inside and outside Egypt. People are often surprised by that, but the data is public. Our customer satisfaction rate is 99.5%, based on feedback from 74% of users. More importantly, our NPS is 98.9 — a figure that’s rare globally. That’s the engine behind our organic growth.

EnterpriseAM: You don’t see numbers like that often.

Gaballah: You don’t. It means almost every customer becomes a promoter. Out of every 100 people who use Sokna, 99 actively recommend it. Operationally, we grew 31% in services. Today, 63% of people know Sokna organically. We no longer chase hospitals — they come to us. Revenue from individuals grew 84%. Revenue from companies, syndicates, and embassies grew threefold. They pay on behalf of employees and members. That’s institutional trust. If they didn’t see value, they wouldn’t pay.

Sixty percent of customers choose the most comprehensive package — permits, certificates, cemetery preparation, everything. People don’t outsource the full experience unless they see real value. Pre-planning revenue also grew 34%. People are now booking services in advance.

EnterpriseAM: What’s next?

Gaballah: There’s two tracks. Firstly, technology products that serve people inside and outside Egypt.

Second, the cemetery project. We’ve opened registration of interest because people are already asking to book. It gives them early access once we launch. Demand is clearly there.

We don’t just want “better cemeteries.” We want integrated management, integrated services, sustainability, and a qualitative improvement in how services are delivered — in a humane way suitable for all segments.

Our design and project are based on solving problems we’ve tracked for seven years: operational requirements from real operations, global best practices, religious practices that must be present, and specialized management. Otherwise, any real estate developer could just build a few structures — one of the core problems today.

The project solves basics: security and safety, accessibility, parking, maintenance, and bathrooms. It also solves capacity planning. At peak times, multiple funerals in the same area block access and create traffic. We looked at it from the perspective of funeral attendees, visitors over time, and other users, and included what services will exist inside the cemeteries.

EnterpriseAM: Is Sokna your life’s project?

Gaballah: I see life in stages. I started with horse training in the US, then technology and real estate, then Sokna. This stage gave me purpose and energy. There may be another stage later after we’ve achieved maximum impact here. There’s a long runway. Cemeteries and technology are long-term plays in Egypt and globally. The real question is whether we can build something here that becomes the standard elsewhere.

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6

Capital markets

EGX30 hits record high in January

Another month, another record high for the EGX: The EGX30 index concluded January at a record high of 47.78k points, marking a sharp 14.2% monthly increase, according to the bourse’s monthly bulletin (pdf).

Large caps are running the game: The headline growth masks a significant divergence across the broader market, as the small and mid-cap EGX70 EWI fell by 7.4% during the same period. While total market capitalization grew 5.3% to EGP 3.2 tn, this appreciation was concentrated exclusively in the heavyweights of the EGX30, which saw their combined market value jump 12.2%.

A bond + bill market: The exchange continues to be a secondary market for government debt rather than a capital-raising venue for the private sector. Fixed-income instruments captured a dominant 93.7% of the total value traded in January.

Could equities make a serious comeback this year? The government is working on selling stakes in some of its companies on the EGX including Banque du Caire and, potentially, AlexBank. And the private sector is also tipping its toes in, with Gourmet’s offering priced yesterday at the top of the range while Bosta and Capital Med are both said to be interested in testing the waters. Still, the value of trading in listed stocks would need to rise 15x to be equal to that of fixed-income.

Sentiment is bullish on banking with the index up 17.4% last month, alongside IT & comms which was up 12.8%, while healthcare and pharma was down 6.2%, followed by shipping and transportation (-5.5%)

Institutional concentration: Local institutions were the primary exiters from listed stocks (excluding deals), offloading over EGP 4.1 bn. Conversely, foreign and Arab institutions were the largest institutional net buyers in this segment at EGP 3.8 bn.

BUT- The picture shifts significantly when including bonds and bills, with foreign institutions’ net buying rising to EGP 193.1 bn, confirming that their primary interest remained in the sovereign debt market rather than listed equities.

Retail floor: Local retail investors provided the strongest support to the equity market, with net purchases exceeding EGP 1 bn. Arab retail investors were net sellers of EGP 735.4 mn, moving in the opposite direction of their institutional counterparts.

EFG Hermes topped the EGX brokerage league table with a 15.5% market share, according to figures released by the bourse (pdf). Thndr Securities Brokerage came in second with 11.6%. CI Capital (7.5%), Mubasher (7.1%), and Cairo Capital Securities (6.1%), rounding out the top five.

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7

Transport

Alexandria Metro works begin as ministry eyes New Abu Qir high-speed rail link

The Transport Ministry is mulling an extension of the Alexandria Metro to New Abu Qir in a bid to integrate the metro system with the fourth Abu Qir–Port Said high-speed railway line, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. The new metro is also slated to cut travel times along the corridor in half — dropping to just 25 minutes from 50 minutes, our source added.

Passenger capacity is also expected to increase to 60k passengers per hour one-way, up from its current 2.85k threshold. Congestion and traffic bottlenecks along the line will also be eased — with headways capped at 2.5 minutes.

The ministry tapped the US-based Institute for Transport and Development Policy’s consulting arm LGIT to serve as advisor for the Alex metro project in a contract valued at EUR 608k, our source tells us. The first phase of construction works has officially started, following the suspension of operations on the old Alexandria tram line last week. Construction will include the establishment of two depots at Abu Qir and Kafr Abdo, with building and infrastructure works.

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8

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Egypt bans Roblox in a bid to protect children

Your little ones will have to say goodbye to Roblox, the online gaming platform mainly targeting children, after the Supreme Council for Media Regulation (SCMR) decided to block it, citing safety concerns. The decision will be implemented in coordination with the National Telecom Regulatory Authority (NTRA), SCMR deputy Essam El Amir said before the Senate yesterday.

“This game is extremely dangerous” for children, El Hekaya’s Amr Adib said last night, expressing his support for the decision (watch, runtime: 5:49). “It’s a cursed game that makes kids hyperactive and irritable… I hate Roblox and I hate children’s addiction to it.”

“We have not yet received any official decision regarding the ban of the game,” NTRA spokesperson Mohamed Ibrahim said during a phone call with El Sora’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime 2:08). Ibrahim added that the NTRA will roll out the ban immediately upon receipt of the decision from the council.

The move comes after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s call last month for new legislation restricting the use of social media platforms and some electronic games by children under a “certain age.”

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9

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Alexbank, Blu EV launch EV microfinancing, HAP’s big investment push, and Beltone’s Moroccan ticket

Alexbank, Blu EV to roll out electric two-wheeler financing for gig workers

Alexbank and Orascom Investment Holding’s Blu EV are developing a new microfinancing model to move Egypt’s delivery fleet to electric, which they say can increase riders’ take-home pay by some 35%, according to a joint statement (pdf). The two signed an MoU for the program to provide simplified credit for electric motorcycles, specifically targeting those working in last-mile delivery and the gig economy.

Why it matters: The partnership addresses the primary friction point for commercial EV adoption — high upfront costs. By combining a 0% down payment with 36-month repayment plans and 48-hour credit approvals, the program lowers the barrier to entry for delivery riders and small business owners — who typically lack access to traditional bank credit — to make the move to electric that will ultimately save them money in the long run.

Hassan Allam Properties eyes EGP 14 bn of investments in 2026 + Europe, KSA expansions

Hassan Allam Properties plans to invest EGP 14 billion in investments dedicated to the construction of new and existing projects in 2026, CEO Mohamed Allam said at a presser. Allam explained that the company targets contractual sales ranging between EGP 30 bn and EGP 40 bn during the current year.

The company is also currently studying several projects in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh and Jeddah and in Europe as part of its plan to diversify its investment portfolio, he said. The projects would come in addition to its current eight projects and 4 mn sqm land bank.

TotalEnergies partners with Nissan Egypt to manufacture oils and secure the after-sales market

TotalEnegies will manufacture motor oils branded and designed for Nissan models in Egypt under a strategic partnership signed with the Egyptian arm of the Korean automaker, according to a joint statement (pdf). The move by the country’s largest exporter of passenger vehicles isn’t just about localization — it’s about securing aftermarket sales, with TotalEnergies’ national network of refuelling stations, service centres, and distributors set to carry the product along with a selection of other genuine Nissan spare parts.

Beltone participates in USD 15 mn funding round for Morocco’s Yakeey

Beltone Holding’s Beltone Venture Capital made an undisclosed strategic equity investment in Morocco-based proptech startup Yakeey, as part of the startup’s USD 15 mn Series A round, according to a statement from Beltone. Beltone joined international and regional investors in the round, including the International Finance Corporation, Enza, and 212 Founders.

The move comes as Beltone VC has been ramping up its activity in the Moroccan entrepreneurial landscape as of late — having invested in Moroccan eyewear brand LNKO, exited Moroccan last-mile delivery logistics platform Cathedis, and backed e-bike rental company VelyVelo’s expansion into the country.

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10

PLANET FINANCE

Crowded trades reverse as metals plunge and USD gains

A week of sharp market swings showed how quickly crowded trades can reverse. Tns of USD shifted as consensus bets stumbled, revealing the delicate positioning beneath an otherwise resilient bull market, Bloomberg reports. Precious metals bore the brunt of the volatility, with gold seeing its sharpest drop in decades and silver suffering a record-breaking plunge.

What happened? The USD index posted its biggest single-day gain since May, strengthening the greenback and unwinding the debasement trade that had fueled metals. The rebound crushed short-USD positions, sending gold down more than 9% and silver about 27% in a single session while triggering the worst relative day for emerging-market equities versus US stocks since May.

The selloff followed an extended period of crowding where gold had been trading around 44% above its long-term trendline — a premium last seen in 1980. Long gold was already flagged as the most crowded global trade, according to Bank of America’s fund manager survey for January, leaving markets vulnerable to a violent correction once sentiment turned.

What drove everyone to metals? The ever-increasing uncertainty taking over the global stage since January, fueled by unpredictable decisions made by the Trump administration, such as the sudden military operation in Venezuela and the looming threat of attacks on Iran.

“The unthinkable has been happening daily. The rally was obviously too much too fast,” Nicky Shiels, analyst at MKS Pam told the Financial Times.

The Warsh effect: The selloff accelerated after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, with his hawkish reputation reviving uncertainty over the future path of rate cuts, according to Bloomberg analysts.

Investors weigh next moves: Some investors who rode gold’s rally are now questioning whether the pullback signals an early warning or just a pause. Jeff Muhlenkamp, whose USD 270 mn fund has benefited from the rally, told the business news service that the drop complicates exit decisions, as selling too soon risks missing further upside.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It is shaping up to be another eventful week for markets, as investors digest the latest fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the USD’s rebound after hitting lows not seen in years, and Trump’s nominee for Jay Powell’s replacement as Fed chair. Asia-Pacific markets are in the red this morning in early trading, with South Korea’s Kospi leading losses.

EGX30

47,663

-0.3% (YTD: +14.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.06

Sell 47.20

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.10

Sell 47.20

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

11,167

-1.9% (YTD: +6.5%)

ADX

10,282

-0.8% (YTD: +2.9%)

DFM

6,435

-0.7% (YTD: +6.4%)

S&P 500

6,939

-0.4% (YTD: +1.4%)

FTSE 100

10,224

+0.5% (YTD: +2.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,948

+1.0% (YTD: +2.7%)

Brent crude

USD 69.32

-0.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.35

+11.1%

Gold

USD 4,745.1

-11.4%

BTC

USD 76,664

-2.1% (YTD: -12.3%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,013.1

+0.1% (YTD: +2.0%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.48

-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

USD 17.44

+3.3% (YTD: 16.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.3% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.3 bn (6.4% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 14.0% YTD.

In the green: Edita (+5.0%), Qalaa Holdings (+4.8%), and Egypt Aluminum (+4.2%).

In the red: GB Corp (-2.0%), CIB (-1.9%), and EFG Holding (-1.3%).

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard
11

BLACKBOARD

The state sets a 20% market share target for private schools by 2030 in its National Narrative for Comprehensive Development

For decades, Egypt’s K-12 system has been defined by three challenges: a chronic shortage of teachers, outdated infrastructure, and a curriculum that fails to prepare graduates for the private sector. The government’s 2030 strategy, detailed in the recently released second edition of the National Narrative for Comprehensive Development (pdf), suggests the state has finally realized it cannot solve these problems alone. The plan signals a shift toward aggressive private-sector integration and a pivot toward technical education.

Why this matters: The government wants to increase the private sector’s share of the education market to 20% by 2030. For operators in the education space, this means a likely easing of licensing bottlenecks for nurseries and schools. For those in industry, it signals a sizable influx of technical education graduates to fill gaps in the labor market.

There’s no easy fix teacher shortages

The government is also committed to reducing class density to 30 students per class, down from 40 students last fiscal year, focusing on high-density governorates such as Giza, Assiut, Minya, Sohag, Fayoum, Qena, Cairo, Beni Suef, and Qalyubia. This will be supported by bringing down the student-to-teacher ratio to 20:1 by the end of the decade, down from 29:1 last fiscal year.

To fill the gap, the government is planning to go on a hiring spree, with funding set aside to hire 167k contract teachers and targeting graduates from faculties of education. Reducing the strain on teacher numbers is being done by reducing the number of lesson slots for core subjects from 12 to 8.

But meeting 2030 education targets is going to be hard considering that Egypt lost 127k teachers between 2018 and 2023. The narrative acknowledges this, but proposes solutions that look more like stop-gaps than long-term fixes, including by raising the per-lesson rate for contract teachers from 20 EGP to 50 EGP.

Even with newer and more classrooms, the fact remains that we need teachers to man them. Overcrowded classrooms risk what those in education call learning poverty — where children are in school, but not learning — which not only doesn’t give the children the education that they deserve as a right in and of itself, but harms the quality of entry-level labor that the country and the companies operating here need.

Bigger, better, and more schools

Work is underway to build 13-15k new classrooms annually, following the construction of 150k classrooms over the past decade. This is in addition to existing mechanisms, including the introduction of rotating classes, increasing the school week to 6 days.

There are targets to increase the availability of classes in distinguished and competitive education to 10% by 2030, up from 7% last fiscal year, by building more Japanese, STEM, Nile, iInternational public, and other types of schools.

The state also eyes an expanded role of the private sector, with a target for the private sector to account for 15% of all students by 2030, up from roughly 12.7% today. While a 2.3% jump sounds modest, in a country of 25 mn+ students, that represents a massive transfer of capital and responsibility.

The early education sector has a private sector-sized hole that needs to be filled

The most significant signal for the business community is the state’s admission of a gap that needs to be filled. The narrative points to a 32% deficit in early childhood centers recorded in FY 2022-23, which it proposes fixing with facilitated licensing for private nurseries and allowing private schools to operate early-childhood classrooms, in addition to a new kindergarten curricula and efforts training staff.

By 2030, the narrative seeks to increase the gross enrollment rate for children in pre-primary education (ages 4–6) to 35%, up from approximately 22.8% in 2025, by increasing the number of kindergarten classes in schools.

Doubling down on technical education

By 2030, the goal is for 55% of all secondary students to be in technical and vocational tracks, up from 44% today. The centerpiece of this push is the applied technology schools model with partnerships with private industrial players like Elsewedy Electric or GB Corp.

The government is targeting 100% employment of university places for all of these graduates by the end of the decade. But while the ambition and general direction is encouraging, the educational footprint to absorb some 55% of the youth population when only 511 of these schools currently exist will require a massive, rapid expansion of private-sector industrial partners willing to take on the teaching burden.

Al Azhar are succeeding where many others aren’t

Perhaps the most surprising data point in the 2030 strategy is the explosion of Al Azhar schools. While enrollment in general public schools grew at a sluggish 1.1% over the last three years, Al-Azhar schools saw a staggering 15% growth rate.

This isn’t just a cultural shift — it’s an economic one. Parents are fleeing the overcrowded public system for the perceived discipline and better teacher-to-student ratios in the Al Azhar system. The government’s response — targeting a 30% accreditation rate for Al-Azhar institutes by 2030 — is an attempt to bring this shadow education market under the same quality-control umbrella as the secular state system.

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CALENDAR

2026

FEBRUARY

3 February (Tuesday): S&P Global to release PMI figures for January.

3 February (Tuesday): Capital Markets Summit

10 February (Tuesday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for January.

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting of 2026.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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