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Monday, 16 Oct 2023

What We’re Tracking Today
War Watch
Manufacturing
Development Finance
Legislation Watch
Energy
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar

Expelling Gazans into Sinai is a “non-starter,” says Blinken, as Egypt plans international summit

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Today at a glance

1

WAR WATCH

Expelling Gazans into Sinai is a “non-starter” -Blinken.
2

WAR WATCH

Could some aid enter Gaza today?
3

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Egypt plans int’l summit to address the war.
4

INVESTMENT WATCH

Chinese, Turkish firms look to expand manufacturing footprints in Egypt.
5

Development finance

IFC lends Banque Misr USD 234 mn for SME on-lending.
6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Elsewedy Electric, Al Kharafi to build new transformer stations.
7

LEGISLATION WATCH

House passes cost-of-living payout, tax break.
8

PLANET FINANCE

US could sidestep a recession, say economists.
9

BLACKBOARD

This year’s higher education rankings are a mixed bag for Egypt’s universities.

Monday, 16 Oct 2023

What We’re Tracking Today
War Watch
Manufacturing
Development Finance
Legislation Watch
Energy
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Egypt plans int’l summit to discuss Gaza conflict

Good morning, friends.

The conflict in Gaza remains the BIG STORY AT HOME on this very war-heavy morning after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met yesterday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. There is also a report that suggests there may have been progress on talks to allow aid into the enclave, and the Biden administration says it now views the expulsion of Palestinians out of Gaza and into Sinai a “non-starter,” the US’ top diplomat said in an interview. We have a rundown on the situation on the ground and in diplomacy in this morning’s news well, below.

The war is set to dominate today’s news cycle, with plenty of activity on the diplomatic front as Israel prepares for what it says will be a decisive land invasion of Gaza.

#1- Egypt wants to host a summit to address the conflict in Gaza, with El Sisi looking to invite regional and world leaders to Cairo to discuss “the developments and future of the Palestinian issue,” Ittihadiya said yesterday following a meeting of the National Security Council. There’s no word yet on when the summit will take place or who’s on the invite list. The summit got wide attention on last night’s talk shows, from Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 3:50 | 9:04) to El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 3:04) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 3:39).

Blinken declined to confirm whether the US would attend the summit when asked in an interview yesterday, saying only that the US “welcomes any efforts’ to resolve the conflict.

#2- New US Gaza envoy arrives in Egypt today:Veteran diplomat David Satterfield has been tapped to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza Blinken told reporters yesterday. The Biden administration announced Satterfield’s appointment yesterday amid global alarm about the human cost of Israel’s war against Hamas.

#3- UNSC vote today: Russia will today push for a UN Security Council vote on its draft resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire and condemning terrorism and civilian deaths, according to Reuters.

The Arab League is planning a UNSC resolution of its own. Look for the body to present a three-pronged plan to agree a ceasefire, ensure aid into Gaza, and prevent the displacement of Palestinians, Arab League official to the UN Maged Abdel Fattah said on Ala Masouleety last night (watch, runtime: 9:53).

#4- An emergency OIC meeting this week: Saudi Arabia will host an emergency meeting of theOrganization of Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh on Wednesday to discuss the escalating situation.

THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT-

A warning from Jamie Dimon: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said over the weekend, warning that the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine could destabilize food and energy prices.

Market reaction to the war has so far been relatively “muted,”Reuters reports, but analysts worry that global inflation and interest rates could rise if the conflict expands to the wider region. “I have no clue whether markets will remain relatively well behaved,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit told Reuters.

On the energy side of the equation, oil prices rose by 6% on Friday on vague concerns about output. Last week, Egypt’s gas imports from Israel dropped 20% after Chevron halted production of the Tamar gas field in the Mediterranean. Safe haven assets including gold and the USD are already attracting investors, with gold prices up 3% at the close of last week and the USD on a one-week high.

Asian markets are stable (ish) to start off the week: Oil and gold prices are down slightly in Asian trading this morning, suggesting that investors aren’t (yet) freaking out about the prospect of a wider war in the region. The stock markets are a different story, with most bourses in the region in the red. The Nikkei (-1.6%) is leading losses, with shares in South Korea and China also lower. Stock markets in Europe and the US will open in the green later today, according to equity futures.

^^ We have the full details in this morning’s War Watch, below.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Today in the House: Another three bills are due to be put to a General Assembly vote today:

  • The expat car-for-FX initiative could be on its way for a three-month reboot. MPs will discuss and vote on whether to allow Egyptian expats to import tax-free with the proviso that they deposit the equivalent of saved duties and taxes in a five-year FX certificate of deposit. The Madbouly government expects to drum up between USD 450 mn and USD 1 bn via the new iteration of the program, a government source told Enterprise.The Finance Ministry had targeted USD 2.5 bn in the first round of the scheme, which reportedly raised around USD 900 mn.
  • Changes to the Importers Registry that would allow foreign companies to become importerscould see the light of day if MPs vote through the legislation today. The bill would allow non-Egyptian investors to become registered importers and hold up to 49% of a trading company.
  • Abu Dhabi Ports could gain the right to build and develop the superstructure of the SafagaPort as well as handle its management, operation, and management if a new draft bill passes the floor.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

S&P is next up to review our credit rating: S&P Global Rating will publish its review of our sovereign credit rating on Friday. Moody’s downgraded its rating for Egypt to Caa1 from B3 earlier this month due to worsening debt affordability and the FX crunch.

GREEN ENERGY-

Wind farm proposals from Scatec, OC to be finalized before year’s end? The Madbouly government expects to close on separate agreements with Orascom Construction and Scatec to build new wind projects, a senior Electricity Ministry official confirmed to Enterprise. The New Renewable Energy Authority and the energy companies are expected to sign development agreements within the next two months, our source told us.

Remember: On the sidelines of COP27 last November, an OC-led consortium with Engie and Toyota Tsusho signed up to build a 3-GW wind farm and Scatec said it was interested in building a portfolio of up to 5 GW of wind projects worth some USD 5 bn.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Egypt AutomotiveAftermarket Exhibition will run for the next three days at the Cairo International Convention Center, gathering players in the aftermarket industry including manufacturers and retailers.

The deadline for technical and financial offers for the Misr Aluminum Company rehabilitation project has been extended by one month, according to an EGX disclosure from the company Sunday. The deadline was pushed back from 12 October to 12 November “based on the request of many companies,” the statement said.

ICYMI-

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at how Egypt’s elevator industry — which has typically supplied around 30% or less of the country’s total elevator demand — now needs to pick up production as imports of completely built elevators have become increasingly limited and expensive.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue:Higher education rankings show a mixed bag for Egypt’s universities

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2

WAR WATCH

Could some aid enter Gaza today? Plus: Blinken says expelling Gazans into Sinai is a “non-starter.”

Could humanitarian aid be allowed into Gaza today? The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza will open today for foreign nationals and humanitarian aid, NBC News reported yesterday following high-stakes talks in Cairo. A Palestinian official told the American broadcaster that from 9am CLT today, foreign nationals will be able to leave the enclave into Egypt and vital humanitarian aid will be allowed in. A separate bulletin from Asharq Business reported the same information, citing unnamed sources.

Maybe? The Egyptian government is yet to comment publicly on the report and there’s been no word yet from the Israelis that they won’t strike aid convoys rolling in. Egypt over the weekend refused to open the border for foreigners looking to leave Gaza, saying behind closed doors that it would only do so if aid were allowed into the strip.

Border discussed at Cairo talks between El Sisi, Blinken: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken telegraphed the opening of the border yesterday in comments to reporters following a “very good” conversation with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo. “Rafah will be reopened. We’re putting in place with the United Nations, with Egypt, with Israel, with others, a mechanism by which to get the assistance in and to get it to people who need it,” he said. The two agreed on the need to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza and prevent civilian deaths, according to a US readout of the conversation. Ittihadiya’s release after the meeting was brief and said only that the two “long standing strategic partners” discussed “military escalation” in Gaza.

Israel has “over-extended the right to self-defense and turned into collective punishment for 2.3 mn people in Gaza,” El Sisi told Blinken in public comments before their meeting (watch, runtime: 11:12). El Sisi said that Egypt “unequivocally” condemns the massacre of Israeli civilians by Hamas but said that at the root of the crisis is “accumulated fury and hatred” caused by the occupation. An earlier meeting of the National Security Council had discussed the need for an end to civilian deaths and the provision of aid, and expressed support for the two state solution, Ittihadiya said.

The Biden administration won’t push for Gaza evacuation: The US will not back calls from Israel to resettle thousands of Gazans in Egypt, Blinken said in an interview with Al Arabiya. Blinken has been on a whistle-stop tour of Arab capitals over the past week for talks with regional leaders, most of whom have publicly condemned plans to force Palestinians out of Gaza. “I’ve heard directly from Palestinian Authority President [Mahmoud] Abbas and from virtually every other leader that I’ve talked to in the region, that that idea is a nonstarter, and so we do not support it,” he told the Saudi broadcaster.

But the pressure is still there:Qatari and Israeli officials have been in Cairo in recent days to push for Palestinians to be allowed into the country, while a number of European leaders have spoken with El Sisi on the subject, according to the Wall Street Journal. Danny Ayalon, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, threatened that Egypt “will have to play ball” with the plans if it wants to avert a humanitarian disaster.

MPs condemn Gaza assault: A large number of Egyptian MPs delivered speeches in the House yesterday condemning Israeli aggression and rejecting the displacement of Palestinians. House Speaker Hanafi Gebaly accused Israel of breaching international law, and warned that its actions could trigger a wider conflict in the region.

NO GROUND INVASION YET-

The Israeli military is yet to start its anticipated ground invasion of Gaza. Amid the continued build-up of troops around the territory, analysts are warning of the potential risks of a full-scale invasion, from the difficulty of defeating Hamas in close-quarters urban combat to the likelihood of a wider conflict with Hezbollah and Palestinian fighters in Lebanon. In an interview yesterday, President Biden endorsed a decision to defeat Hamas but warned that an attempt to reoccupy the territory would be a “big mistake.”

But the rhetoric is ugly: In the past few days Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops that the IDF will “eliminate everything” in Gaza, the Israeli president suggested that all Gaza’s civilians are legitimate targets, and the country’s cabinet minister indicated that it will seize Palestinian land. “Whoever starts a war against Israel must lose territory,” Gideon Sa’ar said in an interview. Gaza “must be smaller at the end of the war.”

An “unprecedented human catastrophe” is taking place in Gaza a week into Israel’s siege, the head of the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, Philippe Lazzarini, said yesterday, warning that his colleagues are no longer able to provide humanitarian assistance. Thousands of people are without shelter, with an estimated 1 mn people displaced by the conflict, more than 600k of whom have fled Gaza City since Friday.

The death toll is climbing rapidly: Almost 2.7k people in Gaza have been killed in Israel’s bombing campaign and another 9.6k wounded, according to the latest figures from the Palestinian health ministry. This is up from just over 2.2k the day before. About 1.3k Israelis died and more than 3k were wounded in Hamas’ attack on 7 October. The Israeli military said yesterday that it had confirmed that Hamas was holding 155 people hostage, an increase from its previous 126 estimate.

DIPLOMACY-

  • A congressional junket. Yeah. That’s the solution: US senators are trying to rescue normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel and will head to the Middle East in the “coming days” to encourage the two countries to continue with the process. Several reports in the international press, including in AFP and Reuters, reported last week that the Saudis have paused the discussions due to the war.
  • The UN: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Hamas to immediately release Israeli hostages and Israel to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, warning that the region is “on the verge of the abyss.”
  • The EU: “We strongly emphasize Israel’s right to defend itself in line with humanitarian and international law,” the EU said in a statement calling on Hamas to release the hostages.
  • Russia: Russian president Vladimir Putin has compared Israel’s blockade of Gaza to Nazi Germany’s siege of Leningrad (modern day St. Petersburg) during the Second World War, which killed more than 1 mn Russians.

SPEAKING OF REGIONAL CONTAGION…

Clashes on Israel’s northern borders are escalating: Israeli jets bombed several targets in Lebanon yesterday after armed groups launched missiles into northern Israel. Hezbollah fighters attacked several Israeli army posts and a village, injuring five, while rocket fire hit the headquarters of the UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon.

Iran is now warning the US, as well as Israel: “If the scope of the war expands, significant damages will also be inflicted upon America,” Iranian media reported Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian as telling Al Jazeera yesterday.

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3

Manufacturing

SCZone secures over USD 100 mn in textile projects on China tour

There’s a lot of manufacturing news today,with overseas trips by the SCZone and Trade Ministry lining up nine-figure sums of potential investment from China and Turkey. This is good news for the Madbouly government, which has been on an investment promotion kick using tools including golden licenses and more recent business reforms.

CHINESE INVESTMENTS-

Over USD 100 mn in Chinese textile investments could be coming to the SCZone: The Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) and a number of Chinese companies have signed agreements to establish textile projects worth a combined USD 101.3 mn in investment in the West Qantara Industrial Zone, a cabinet statement said yesterday. The statement did not provide any details on the production capacities of the project or their implementation timelines.

SCZone chief Walid Gamal El Din is currently in China to drum-up investment: Walid Gamel El Din landed in Shanghai on Sunday to meet with Chinese companies within the textile industries and other sectors targeted for localization in the authority’s ports and regions. The SCZone signed initial agreements with a number of Chinese companies in May, during its China and Hong Kong roadshow.

Hengsheng to invest USD 70 mn in textile factory: The SCZone signed a usufruct contract with Hengsheng Dyeing Zhejiang Company to invest USD 70 mn building a dyeing, processing, and textile manufacturing project on a 200k sq m plot of land in the West Qantara Industrial Zone, which is expected to create some 1.5k new job opportunities.

More to come: Three letters of intent were also signed to establish textile projects, with contracts hopefully being signed in the upcoming months, the statement read.

#1- Fabrics producer Shanoxing Yuding Textile Company wants to invest USD 5 mn to open a factory — under the name Dinghang Egypt — on a 12.7k sq m plot in the West Qantara Industrial Zone. The factory will create 100 new jobs and the company plans to export 90% of the total production to the US and European market.

#2-Shengzhou Captain Industrial and Trading Company chair Wang Xiao Rong signed a letter indicating that the company wants to invest USD 5 mn in a plant manufacturing spandex, polyester and elastic yarns on a 12k sq m plot in the West Qantara Industrial Zone, creating some 500 new jobs.

#3- Australian China-based investment firm IndoChine Holdings could spend USD 21.3 mn developing a factory in the Qantara West Industrial Zone. The Hangzhou-based company plans to export 100% of the factory’s products to US and European markets.

The SCZone’s textile sector has seen a host of commitments this year: Agreements for some USD 45 mn worth of textile projects in China’s TEDA industrial zone in Ain Sokhna were signed in July, while the local unit of Shanghai-listed Chinese textile manufacturer Zhejiang Cady Industry announced in August that it would invest USD 60 mn to establish a factory in the TEDA zone, with the first phase set to start this year and wrap up before the end of 2024

ICYMI- China is looking to expand its presence in Egypt in a big way: Some 10-15 Chinese companies have shown interest in establishing a specialized industrial zone for chemicals with investments worth the equivalent of USD 7.5-12 bn in CNY over the next three to four years. The push comes as many manufacturers look to diversify their footprints by adopting a “China +1” posture.

CNY investments could accelerate that: Authorities could allow Chinese to make local investments in CNY, with media outlets reporting that there is an agreement between the General Authority for Freezones and Investment and the Central Bank of Egypt to increase the use of the currency in Egypt. Talks are ongoing for the China Development Bank to set up a branch in Egypt, a move that would enable Chinese companies to access CNY in Egypt to fund local investments.

TURKISH INVESTMENTS-

Trade delegation drums up Turkish investments: Trade Minister Ahmed Samir was in Turkey to meet with companies working in textiles, paper, real estate, and other industries and promote investment in Egypt, according to a Trade Ministry statement yesterday.

#1- Textile and real estate company Eroglu Holding wants to expand one of its existing textile factories in Damietta to bring annual production to 50 mn meters of fabric and yearly sales to USD 150 mn. The company also wants to set up a USD 300 mn polyester and nylon factory on 500k sq m in the Suez Canal with the aim of achieving USD 200 mn in annual sales. The company is also mulling over opening a mattress factory at a cost of USD 200 mn to both serve local demand and export to Africa.

#2-Hygiene and sanitary products company Hayat hopes to open three additional factories in the country. A USD 70 mn paper tissue factory is on the cards, as is a USD 35 million industrial detergents plant, and a diaper facility of an unspecified size. The company is also studying the possibility of opening a paper factory that uses our abundant date palms as the main raw material. The company has been operating here since 2012 and has invested USD 550 mn so far in its Egypt operations.

#3-Clothing giant LC Waikiki wants to open a factory in one of our freezones to take advantage of the incentives on offer. On the high street (and malls), the Turkish company wants to expand to 100 stores in five years, more than double the 38 it currently has. Its total investments here currently stand at USD 100 mn.

#4- Fellow clothing company T&C is looking to expand its total factory footprint here to 100k sq m. The company already employs 6.5k people

#5- And last but not least, for the sweet tooths out there, Turkish confectionery companyKervan is aiming to expand its current factory by over 50% to 50k sq m.

BACKGROUND- Amid warming diplomatic ties between Egypt and Turkey, Turkish banks and manufacturers have been expressing their interest in expanding into the local Egyptian market, and the two sides even reinstated the Egyptian-Turkish Business Council for the first time in 10 years in May.

IN OTHER MANUFACTURING NEWS-

Alstom to ink EUR 300 mn industrial complex contract next month: French rolling stock manufacturer Alstom will ink a EUR 300 mn contract with the Transport Ministry on the sidelines of the the Transmea Conference, taking place from 5-8 November, Amwal Al Ghad reported, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter. Alstom will use the investment over the next three years to establish two factories in Borg El Arab to produce electrical systems along with metro and monorail rolling stock. Over the summer, the cabinet approved in principle Alstom’s plans.

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4

Development finance

IFC loans Banque Misr USD 234 mn to support small, female-owned businesses in Egypt

IFC to help finance our MSMEs — and especially women-led MSMEs: The International Financial Corporation (IFC) will provide state-owned Banque Misr with a USD 234 mn loan for on-lending to privately-owned micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), with half of the loan earmarked for women-led businesses, the lender said in a statement on its website. The loan, which was announced on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF’s annual meeting in Marrakech, will “create new jobs, boost economic growth, and reduce the gender financing gap,” the statement said.

It’s a bit less than originally expected: The IFC was considering lending Banque Misr USD260 mn, with the IFC providing USD 216.7 mn and the rest coming from its co-lending program, the lender’s website said in May. At the time the IFC said the loan had a tenor of five years, this was not confirmed in the recent statement.

The breakdown: The loan is composed of USD 190.7 mn in funds from the IFC and a further USD 43.3 mn from the IFC’s emerging markets mobilization platform MCPP One Planet. The project will also be able to access concessional funding through the IFC’s Global SME Finance Facility.

Not the first time the IFC and Banque Misr partnered up to support women-led businesses: The IFC supported Banque Misr’s Zaat program for female entrepreneurs launched in 2022. However, this new USD 234 mn loan marks the IFC’s “first gender-lens investment” in one of our state-owned banks, the statement added.

Banque Misr saw the EBRD greenlight USD 100 mn for MSMEs in July: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced it would provide a loan of USD 100 mn to the bank to be directed to supporting MSMEs in May, with a focus on businesses located in areas with limited access to financial services.

DATA POINT: TheIFC’s Egypt portfolio now stands at some USD 1.7 bn, backed up with an active advisory portfolio amounting to USD 32 mn.

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5

LEGISLATION WATCH

House passes cost-of-living payout, tax break

MPs yesterday gave final approval to draft bills that deliver a tax cut for workers and an exceptional cost-of-living payout for pensioners and public-sector workers. The two bills will now be sent to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to be ratified into law and will retroactively come into effect from 1 October.

#1- Tax cut: The House approved amendments to the Income Tax Act that would raise the tax exemption threshold by 25% to EGP 45k from EGP 36k. The measure was announced last month as part of a package of measures aimed at reducing the impact of soaring inflation on low earners.

The numbers: The income tax exemption threshold has risen 275% in just nine years, mirroring the minimum wage rising 233% in the same period, according to a House committee report.

#2- Cost of living allowances and pension payouts: The draft bill will amend the 2022 law to raise the exceptional cost of living allowance to EGP 600 for all state employees starting this month, double the EGP 300 paid out previously, while also doubling an exceptional grant for pensioners to EGP 600 from EGP 300.

The numbers: The wage hike is set to cost EGP 15.8 bn and the pension payout will come in at EGP 32 bn.

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6

Energy

Egypt and Jordan mull new subsea electricity link

A new Egypt-Jordan electricity link upgrade may be in the works: Egypt and Jordan are currently conducting a technical and financial study for a new 1.1 GW subsea power cable, a government source told Enterprise. The total 2 GW link between the two countries, announced by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly in August and reported by Ahram Online, will be supported by the proposed subsea cable as a way to reduce costs.

When’s decision time? The two countries will decide by the end of the year whether to implement the plan.

What we know so far: The state expects to break ground on the first phase of the capacity expansion in 1Q 2024, our source told us. The new cable will be laid in tandem with work on the Egypt-Iraq link and its first phase is expected to wrap by the end of 2024. We haven’t heard how much this is all going to cost, but our source told us that Jordan will pay for the project without going into details about how the country plans to finance it.

*Correction on 16 October 2023: Our initial coverage said that Jordan and Egypt had scaled back their initial planned upgrade to our electricity link between the countries to 1.1 GW for the time being due to economic headwinds. Instead, they are studying channeling 1.1 GW of a total 2.2 GW link through a subsea cable as a cheaper alternative to on-land cables.

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7

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Gaza continues to dominate the nation’s talk shows

The Gaza war entered its ninth night of coverage, as the nation’s talking heads focused on President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Cairo. The meeting between El Sisi and the National Security Council also got a lot of coverage, as well as on-the-ground developments in Gaza throughout the night.

Israel’s reaction goes beyond the issue of self defense and amounts to collective punishment, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his visit to Cairo yesterday. El Sisi’s comments received widespread coverage on last night’s talk shows. Presidential spokesman Ahmed Fahmy appeared on El Hekaya to tell Amr Adib that El Sisi was keen for his comments during the meeting to be “clear and in numbers” so that the whole world could hear it. Adib drew his audience’s attention to what he said is the US administration’s confusion in managing the ongoing conflict in Gaza (watch, runtime: 4:49 | 3:04).

Lamees El Hadidi spoke to Al Sharq Al Awsat’s Washington bureau chief Heba El Qudsito find out what happens now after Blinken’s visit to the Middle East (watch, runtime: 3:04 | 14:49).

The US is concerned about hostages and regional interference: The US and Egypt share a common perspective on Gaza, US State Department regional spokesman (and former Cairo hand) Sam Werberg said during an appearance on Ala Masouleety. Werberg added that the US is looking to make it possible for humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and is trying to help US hostages and other Americans in Gaza. He also expressed the US administration’s concern that Iran or Hezbollah may interfere in the conflict (watch, runtime: 29:48).

The Gaza Strip is in a “major calamity and disaster,” said UNRWA spokesperson Adnan Abu Hasna, who appeared on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 12:23) and El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 6:06) to discuss the current conditions in Gaza. “There is currently no electricity or internet and people are besieged…I have lived through all the wars, but I have never seen anything like what is happening now,” he said. Rami El Nazer, the executive director of the Egyptian Red Crescent, appeared on Lobna Assal’s Al Hayah Al Youm to talk about the aid piling up while it waits to reach Gaza (watch, runtime: 5:54).

Also on the airwaves last night:

  • Food price controls: Coverage on the government and private sector’s initiative to reduce the prices of basic food commodities continued on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 1:46 | 1:55) and El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 3:01).
  • Election 2023:Talk about December’s presidential election was limited to preparations to facilitate Egyptian expats voting on Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 4:13).
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8

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Egypt’s Elsewedy and Kuwait's Al Kharafi grab electricity transformer station contracts

INFRASTRUCTURE-

#1- Elsewedy Electric, Al Kharafi to build new transformer stations: The government has awarded contracts to construct two transformer stations to Elsewedy Electric and a subsidiary of Kuwaiti conglomerate Al Kharafi Group, Asharq Business reports, citing Atter Hannoura, who heads the Finance Ministry’s PPP unit. Under the contracts, Elsewedy will establish a station at New Alamein and Al Kharafi will construct one at Tenth of Ramadan City. This is part of the government’s EGP 7 bn project to establish nine transformer stations in partnership with the private sector. Hannoura did not disclose the value of the contracts.

ICYMI- The news comes a few days after the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it is considering providing up to EUR 165 mn in financing to the government to upgrade the country’s electricity grid.

#2- Schneider Electric x Suez Canal Authority: Schneider Electric has signed a contract with the Suez Canal Authority to carry out maintenance work on the electrical and control systems in the three tunnels under the canal, it said in a press release (pdf) last week.

FINANCE-

Emirates NBD x Al Ahly Tamkeen: Emirates NBD Egypt will provide a EGP 200 mn loan to the National Bank of Egypt’s microlending unit Al Ahly Tamkeen to help it expand its loan portfolio, it said in a statement (pdf) yesterday.

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9

PLANET FINANCE

Optimism grows that the US may avoid a recession

US could sidestep a recession, say economists: With the Fed potentially halting its cycle of interest rate hikes, inflation easing, and growth surpassing expectations, economists have now put the chance of a US recession within the next year at 48%, down from a 54% average in July, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing data from its quarterly survey of business and academic economists. The results are the first time that the country’s recession probability has fallen below 50% since the middle of 2022.

Driving optimism: Strong jobs data and economic growth, falling inflation, and optimism that interest rates have reached their peak.

A case for a soft landing: The predictions relay confidence that the Fed will be able to create a ‘soft-landing’, a situation in which inflation falls without causing a recession, writes the WSJ. “The case for a soft landing has undeniably strengthened,” Deutsche Bank economists said.

But risks still remain: Deutsche Bank economics warned that despite the optimism,“headwinds such as depleted savings, tightening credit conditions, slowing income growth and return of student debt payments will weigh more appreciably over the next year.” Recent developments like the war in Gaza and the potential for regional escalation could also have unforeseen effects for the US economy in coming months.

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The EGX30 rose 1.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.6 bn (19.4% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 39.2% YTD.

In the green: Mopco (+16.7%), Orascom Construction (+14.0%) and Oriental Weavers (+6.1%).

In the red: Madinet Masr (-3.3%), EFG Holding (-2.8%) and Alexandria Containers and Goods (-2.7%).

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

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BLACKBOARD

The 2023 higher education rankings are a mixed bag for Egypt’s universities

Egyptian universities broadly faced some setbacks in this year’s international rankings, although there were also some bright spots. Different international rankings showed different levels of performance among Egyptian universities, with one ranking seeing more universities entering the ranking, while another saw the majority of ranked universities fall back in their standings.

There are a handful of global ranking systems out there, but there are three that really count: The QS World University Rankings, the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, and the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU, or the Shanghai Ranking). The 2024 edition of the ARWU ranking has yet to be released.

We have 12 more Egyptian universities included in THE’s 2024 ranking, which now includes 38 Egyptian universities, up from 26 in last year’s edition. Badr University in Cairo, Delta University for Science and Technology, Egyptian Russian University, Misr University for Science and Technology, and Pharos University all became reporter universities in the latest rankings, as were Canadian International College (CIC), Future University, October 6 University, October University for Modern Sciences and Arts (MSA), and University of Sadat City, which were also reporter universities in last year’s ranking. Reporter universities feed in data, but are not ranked.

The methodology: THE’s ranking system adopts 13 performance indicators grouped into five areas: Teaching (the learning environment); research (volume, income and reputation); citations (research influence); International outlook (staff, students and research); and industry income (knowledge transfer), THE rankings methodology notes.

Aswan University breaks its streak: After a four-year run of being ranked as the top Egyptian university in THE’s ranking, it ceded the top spot to Egypt-Japan University of Science and Technology (E-JUST), which is ranked 601-800. E-JUST was a reporter university last year. Aswan is tied with Al Azhar University, Alexandria University, the American University, Cairo University, Damietta University, Kafrelsheikh University, Mansoura University, and Zagazig University, all of which are ranked 801-1000.

A number of universities stumbled in this year’s ranking: Aswan had been ranked in the 401-500 range last year, while Kafrelsheikh and Mansoura were ranked 501-600 last year, and Cairo University was ranked 601-800.

Over in the QS ranking, it’s Cairo University’s time to shine:This year, Cairo University is ranked 371, leading in the academic reputation, employer reputation, employment outcome, international research network, and sustainability scores. This is a leap from the university’s position in last year’s ranking, which placed it in the 551-560 range.

AUC leads the private pack: The American University in Cairo (AUC) is the top-ranked private university in Egypt, coming in at 415 in the overall ranking and second in the country behind Cairo University. AUC ranks strongest in terms of the faculty-student ratio, citations per faculty, and international faculty ratio.

As for the rest of the ranking: Ain Shams University is ranked as the third-best Egyptian university (721-730), followed by Alexandria University (901-950); the Arab Academy for Science, Technology, and Maritime Transport, Assiut University, Future University in Egypt, and Mansoura University (1001-1200); Al Azhar University, British University in Egypt, German University in Cairo, Helwan University, Suez Canal University, Tanta University, and Zagazig University (1201-1400).

We continue to have the highest number of universities represented in the QS rankings out of all African countries: Egypt maintained its lead position on a continent level in the QS World University Rankings 2024, with 15 ranked universities, out of 32 from the continent. Egypt had 14 universities in the ranking in 2022.

Regionally, our universities aren’t quite at the top: We didn’t crack into QS’ ranking of the top 10 universities in the Arab region, with AUC coming in at 11 and Cairo University landing in the 12th spot regionally. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz University snagged the top spot in the regional ranking, followed by Qatar University, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, King Saud University, American University in Beirut, United Arab Emirates University, Khalifa University, Sultan Qaboos University, American University of Sharjah, and University of Jordan.

Your top education stories for the week:

  • Wycombe Abbey in the NAC: British private school Wycombe Abbey will establish a branch in the new capital, according to a statement (pdf) last week from the city’s developer.
  • CIRA taps Ain Shams president as senior advisor: CIRA Education has hiredMahmoud El Meteini as group senior advisor.
  • Venture money for education startups: Saudi accelerator Value Makers Studio (VMS) has invested in local education startups Akhdar and OBM Education.
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CALENDAR

OCTOBER

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

20 October (Friday): S&P Global Ratings to review Egypt’s sovereign credit rating.

20 October (Friday): Deadline for applying for Dar Venture’s Dare incubator.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

27 October (Friday): Deadline for bidding in tender for five solar plants on north coast.

27 October- 2 November (Friday-Thursday): Gouna Film Festival.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October – 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network, American University of Cairo.

31 October – 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

Signposted to happen some time in October:

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

3 November (Friday): Fitch to review Egypt’s sovereign credit rating.

8 November (Wednesday): Turkish-Arab Economic Forum 2023, Istanbul.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

12 November (Sunday): Deadline for technical and financial offers for Misr Aluminium Company rehabilitation project (extended from 12 October)

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt VC Summit, Conrad Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

22 November (Wednesday): Deadline to apply to FRA for credit rating license.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

November: Bidding deadline for 5 gold mine concessions in the Eastern Desert (TBC).

DECEMBER

December: Kenyan trade conference in Egypt.

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

  • Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
  • Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

Q1 2024: Opening of the new developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2024

JANUARY

7 January (Sunday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution day.

APRIL

6 April (Saturday): Coptic Easter.

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (TBC).

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (TBC)..

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

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