Good morning, wonderful people. It’s another econ-heavy morning with the newsflow still driven by the float of the EGP — and that’s not going to change as we look ahead to the announcement today of an assistance and investment package from our friends in the European Union.
A delegation led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be in town today. Word is that the prime ministers of Greece, Italy, and Belgium will also be making the trip — the first two are long-time allies of Egypt in the bloc. It’s rare, to say the least, to see Von Der Leyen here with three heads of government.
The expectation is that we’re in line for a multi-bn EUR support package, but it won’t be the EUR 7.4 bn that the Financial Times says we’re getting.
Look for a package worth EUR 5 bn through 2027, with as much as EUR 1 bn of that fast-tracked for disbursal 1-2 weeks down the road, a senior EU diplomat tells us. The remaining EUR 4 bn in medium-term support will need to go through the European Parliament, where a number MEPs have been vocally critical of Egypt.
EUR 5 bn tracks with what Finance Minister Mohamed Maait has guided us all on: He’s said previously that he expects EUR 4.6-5.5 bn from our European allies. Greece and Cyprus remain strong regional allies of Egypt and business and economic ties with Italy are warming, but many in the bloc are backing support for Egypt as part of a broader policy to stem illegal migration to Europe.
WATCH THIS SPACE #1- The IMF executive board has yet to put Egypt on its public calendar, which now extends through 26 March. We expect the board to meet by month’s end provided the staff-level agreement on our assistant package gets circulated in time to give the board two weeks’ notice of what they will be voting on.
AND- Separate talks are still continuing that could see officials line up another USD 1-1.2 bn in climate finance under the Fund’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility.
WATCH THIS SPACE #2- There’s still no word on how much funding we may be getting from the World Bank. The Madbouly government has suggested we could be getting as much as USD 3 bn from the lender
So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:05pm in the capital, and you’ll have until 4:34am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.
PSA- Greater Cairo will experience light rain and wind throughout the day, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority and our favorite weather app.
The search for the next IMF chief begins: The International Monetary Fund has begunits official selection process for its next director. The Fund’s current head Kristalina Georgieva is widely expected to be nominated again to serve a second five-year term. The Fund’s board expects to make its decision by the end of April.
Egypt and Georgieva have history: Under her leadership, Egypt was able to secure a USD 3 bn loan from the fund, which was then expanded to USD 8 bn. In the process, she held talks with basically every higher up in the country — President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, CBE governor Hassan Abdalla, and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait.
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SIGN OF THE TIMES-
MAF revenues take hit on the back of weakening currencies + boycotts: Dubai-based conglomerate and long-time key investor to Egypt Majid Al Futtaim saw revenue from its retail sector fall 4% y-o-y to AED 24.7 bn (c. USD 6.7 bn) in 2023, according to its latest earnings release (pdf). The company — which owns and operates French supermarket brand Carrefour in some 70 locations across Egypt — attributed the slump to “currency devaluation in Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Kenya … and a shift in consumer sentiment related to geopolitical tensions in the region.” Carrefour last year entered Israel, putting it on the list of brands boycotted by consumers.
How might this impact Egypt? “The company is still on track to open 200 additional grocery retail stores between now and 2030,” the company assured in a statement seen by Bloomberg, and still intends to pump EGP 30 bn over the next ten years into expanding grocery retail, real estate, shopping mall and entertainment companies in Egypt.
HAPPENING TODAY-
The EGX will halt trading on Arafa Holding, the company behind fashion brand Concrete, starting today as the holding company carries out a demerger, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The transaction will see our friends at Arafa rebrand to Concrete Fashion Group for Trade and Industrial Investment and spin off subsidiary Gtex for Trade and Industrial Investments.
Shares of the two companies will be trading on the EGX starting Sunday, 24 March. We’ll have more soon, but the star to watch will be Concrete Fashion Group, which will make its market debut with an impressive board, strong management team, and assets that include domestic fashion player Concrete as well as a strong export portfolio.
DATA POINT
More imported cars on the road: Some 25k cars have been delivered to Egyptians under the Madbouly government’s expat car import initiative with 250k import approvals issued, according to a statement from the Finance Ministry. Some 470k Egyptian expats have signed up for the scheme.
WAR WATCH
Ceasefire talks to resume as Rafah assault looms: Despite agreeing over the weekend to send a delegation to Qatar for ceasefire negotiations today, Israel has doubled down on its intentions to attack Rafah — one of the world’s most densely populated places that is home to nearly 1.5 mn displaced Palestinains. Ceasefire talks should restart today in Doha, but could be pushed to tomorrow, the Associated Press reports, citing unnamed Egyptian officials.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s unusually quiet in the global press even for a Sunday, with no single story dominating the headlines.
Joe Biden gave a thumb-up to the US Senate majority leader’s speech slamming Benjamin Netanyahu, in which Chuck Schumer called the Israeli PM an obstacle to peace in our region.
On planet finance: Sam Bankman-Fried could face up to 50 years in jail — that’s therecommendation from prosecutors, while his lawyers are saying he should face no more than 6.5 years behind bars. He was found guilty of seven charges in a crypto scheme last year.
The latest sign that PE loves advisory firms: The US arm of Grant Thornton is selling a majority stake to buyout firm New Mountain Capital. Check out the joint press release.
AND- Consulting firms may be doing amazing business in our part of the world, but it’s not like that in the US of A, prompting the Wall Street Journal to ask on its front page why, ifconsultants are paid to fix businesses, can’t they fix their own?





