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Enterprise Finance Forum 2.0

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What We're Tracking Today

The next Enterprise Finance Forum takes place on 24 September

Good morning, wonderful people. Before we get underway this morning, please take a moment to mark your calendars because:

There are just 63 days left until our next Enterprise Finance Forum, which will take place on Tuesday, 24 September at the St Regis Hotel on the bank of the Nile here in Cairo.

The nation’s finance industry is at a turning point. Less than six months after the float of the EGP, we are on the right side of a protracted FX crunch that had the business community and Planet Finance alike in a chokehold.

We’re also in the early days of a generational realignment of power not just in our region, but in the global finance industry: The UAE has for more than a decade been the unquestioned epicenter of finance in the Mideast. Saudi Arabia is jockeying for a position, offering a fat fee wallet as it invests bns in gigaprojects — but institutions that don’t declare it their regional headquarters could be left on the outside looking in.

Enter Egypt, where we need to ask tough questions about our role in this finance ecosystem — and about the role the industry can play in building a real, export-led economy that will be far more resilient to shocks going forward.

On the agenda in September:

  • We’ll ask a senior government official to tell us why it’s different this time around;
  • Top CEOs answer the most difficult questions in Welcome to the Hot Seat;
  • What does the New Middle East Economy look like, and what’s our finance community’s role in it?
  • How is Planet Finance preparing for the largest inter-generational transfer of wealth the world has ever seen?
  • Who are the next generation of giants who will be staples of your fee wallets and your NIMs in the future?

PLUS: The outlook for dealflow, opportunities in consumer finance, how we should be thinking about energy, why customer experience is key online and off, and what’s driving the next generation of Egyptian giants.

The 2024 Enterprise Finance Forum is our flagship forum and part of our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings that allow senior members of our community to openly and frankly discuss critical issues in key sectors of the economy.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND? Everyone who plays a role in our industry, from commercial and investment bankers to asset managers, fintech founders, NBFS leaders, and professional services providers of all stripes. Attendees at our events are C-suite officers, business owners, and their direct reports; we also make an allocation for folks we think could be tomorrow’s founders and C-suite executives.

Want to request an invitation? Tap or click here Space is strictly limited. Formal invitations will start going out next month, and the only way to receive one is to let us know you’re interested.

EGX WATCH-

From NileX to the EGX: Lotus for Agricultural Investments and Development has moved from the EGX’s small and medium enterprises market to the main market after spending a little over a year trading on the NileX.

A capital increase ahead: The company has plans to increase its capital over the coming period as part of its expansion plan, Managing Director Ayman Al Abd said, without disclosing any further details.

More companies to leave the NileX for the EGX: Another company or two will be moving from the SMEs market to the main market “over the coming few months,” bourse head Ahmed El Sheikh told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:10). The SMEs market serves as a “business incubator” where companies can list for 3 to 5 years as they work to raise capital and implement expansion plans that ultimately propel them to the main market, he previously said.

And more listings all around: The bourse is currently studying the prospect of listing 11 new companies — eight on the EGX and three on the NileX, he added.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The final chance to subscribe to the Act Financial IPO. Retail investors — who are being offered 60 mn shares — can subscribe to a minimum of 1k shares and a maximum of 1.75 mn shares until later today. The subscription period for institutional investors wrapped up last Thursday.

High demand from retail investors: The retail investors’ offering was 34x oversubscribed by the end of trading yesterday, Al Mal reported citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter. The institutional investors’ offering was 20.2x oversubscribed.

DATA POINT-

#1- Peak energy consumption: Energy consumption reached its highest level ever on Sunday at around 165 mn cubic meters of fuel equivalent, the Oil Ministry said in a statement. The announcement adds color to statements from the Electricity Ministry spokesperson as to why power cuts continued throughout Sunday, despite promises that the government will be halting them until mid-September.


#2- Egypt’s wheat imports jumped 34% y-o-y in the first six and half months of 2024, rising to 7.5 mn tons, with private sector imports leading the increase, Al Arabiya reports citing official data.

ICYMI: Last week, state grain buyer GASC bought 770k tons of wheat from Russia and Bulgaria in its largest single purchase since June 2022 — part of a bid to bring strategic wheat reserves up from six month’s supply to nine.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another hot one in Cairo, with a high of 38°C and a low of 27°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 34°C and a low of 25°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

No surprises here — Kamala Harris is leading front pages everywhere after suddenly becoming the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Also getting attention: Israel is evacuating Khan Younis; ether ETFs are coming; and Google is keeping advertiser cookies.

Harris addressed her campaign staff yesterday as her candidacy earned the backing of key party officials, with former House speaker Nancy Pelosi the latest to give Harris her stamp of approval. Hollywood celebrities are also rallying around Harris and donating to the campaign — and Charli XCX seemingly triggered a viral meme campaign after tweeting that Harris “IS brat.” The campaign is leaning into it in a bid to attract Gen Z votes.

The sitting vice president aims to lock-in the delegates she needs to secure her nomination by tomorrow evening, Reuters reports. The Democratic National Committee has agreed to hold a virtual roll call to choose their nominee by Wednesday, 7 August. The formal convention will start on Monday, 19 August.

The key question on everyone’s minds now: Who will Harris pick as her running mate? Bloomberg, the New York Times and Politico each have a list of folks they think are likely candidates.

MEANWHILE- The US Secret Service admitted its “failure” in protecting Trump during his assassination attempt, and Biden said dropping out of the race was “the right thing to do.”

OVER IN GAZA- While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to Washington to address congress tomorrow, Israel has ordered civilians to evacuate Khan Younis as it relaunches attacks against Hamas, sending hundreds of thousands to the humanitarian area in Al Mawasi by the coast and killing 70 Palestinians in the meantime. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

IN BUSINESS NEWS- Several stories are making the rounds:

#1- The ripple effects of the global tech outage on Friday could last weeks, experts say, as flights continue to face delays across the world and healthcare services face ongoing snarls.

#2- The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of ether ETFs six months after the successful launch of BTC ETFs, with trading expecting to kick off today, CNBC reports. The ETFs could attract some USD 15 bn to market in its first year and a half, analysts expect.

#3- Google is scrapping long-standing plans to replace third-party cookies — long used by advertisers — after receiving feedback that the transition would be disruptive and would impact all online publishers. Read Google’s full blog post about the decision here.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We break down a new report from the European Court of Auditors that calls into question whether the EU’s green hydrogen strategy is sufficient to reach Europe’s 2030 goals.

Dive into the Aquaman Experience: A Premier Open Water Swimming Event at Somabay

Aquaman is an exhilarating open water swimming competition set in the breathtaking surroundings of Somabay, Egypt, from 24 to 26 October. With six diverse races catering to various skill levels, it presents a thrilling challenge for swimmers of all ages. International participants can benefit from exclusive promo codes, while Egyptian swimmers can conveniently register in EGP. Join us for a world-class event that celebrates the spirit of competition and aquatic excellence. Register now: https://www.aquaman.co/

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Economy

Egypt’s external debt fell 8% between December and May

Egypt’s external debt registers record decline in May: External debt dropped to USD 153.9 bn at the end of May, down by USD 14.2 bn — or 8.43% — from its level at the end of December 2023, according to a high-level source at the central bank.

We’ve got our imports covered for eight months: Egypt’s foreign reserves can now cover around 7.9 months of merchandise imports, “greatly exceeding internationally recognized safe levels,” the source said.

Lower yields on USD-denominated bonds and falling credit risk augur well for Egypt’s credit rating outlook and cost of borrowing in international markets, the source added, pointing to the decline in the risk accorded Egypt’s debt instruments as a sign of international markets’ confidence in the ability of the country to meet its obligations.

Also helping: There was “tremendous growth” in FX inflows, which rose 200% — remittances from Egyptians abroad more than doubled — between early March and now.

ICYMI- FX reserves hit a record high in June: Net foreign reserves increased in June to just under USD 46.4 bn, surpassing the previous peak of USD 46.1 bn recorded in May.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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M&A WATCH

MENA Glass wants to up its stake in Middle East Glass — submits USD 58 mn offer

A new entry in the race for Gulf Capital’s stake in Middle East Glass: Parent firm MENA Glass Holding has submitted a mandatory tender offer to acquire an additional 40.8% — represented in 25.5 mn shares — in EGX-listed bottle maker Middle East Glass (MEG) in a USD 57.8 mn transaction, the Financial Regulatory Authority said in a statement (pdf)

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Remember: MENA Glass Holding already holds 52.9% of MEG, while Gulf Capital’s 36.9% stake (owned through special purpose vehicle MTM Packaging 2) makes it the second-largest shareholder. IGC Holdings owns 6.3%.

Who’s selling? Gulf Capital is looking to offload its entire stake — represented in 23.1 mn shares — in the company, while IGC rejected the offer.

The offer on the table: MENA Glass has offered to pay USD 2.26 per share — which would put the transaction value at some USD 57.8 mn if the buyer ends up securing the full 40.8% and at some USD 52.2 mn if it only secures Gulf Capital’s stake.

A huge markup: The offer marks a 774% premium to MEG’s average share price of EGP 12.54 a piece over the six months ending on 21 April, when MENA Glass submitted the MTO to the FRA, and values the whole company at almost EGP 6.9 bn, according to our calculations.

The end goal: If it succeeded in securing the full desired stake, the transaction will leave MENA glass with a 93.7%.stake in MEG — 87.4% without IGC’s stake.

What’s next? MEG has 20 working days to respond to the offer.

Post-acquisition plans: MENA Glass plans to resume and continue the expansion plans determined before the transaction, including plans to enhance production efficiency, carry out required maintenance upgrades, and ramp up exports. The buyer also pledged to continue listing the company’s shares on the EGX and not delist them.

Demand is high for Gulf Capital’s stake, with many investors expressing interest for the stake over the last quarter of 2023, including Africa-focused private equity firm Development Partners International, impact investor Mediterrania Capital Partners, and a number of other unnamed bidders.

Advisors: EFG Hermes will broker the acquisition, while Bahaa Eldin Law Office and MENA Associates will act as the buy side legal advisor. Arqaam Capital is the sell-side advisor.

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IPO

Compass Capital’s Bonyan mulls IPO

Bonyan mulls IPO: Compass Capital subsidiary Bonyan is reportedly planning to offer a USD 120 mn stake in an upcoming initial public offering on the EGX by year-end, Asharq Business reports, citing two unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter. Bonyan is set to list on the EGX this week in preparation for the IPO.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Refresher: Bonyan’s real estate portfolio — which spans east and west Cairo — includes a project in Redcon Properties’ Golden Gate project in the Fifth Settlement, a mall in Sheikh Zayed, as well as six office buildings in New Cairo's central business district. It is also the developer behind Sheikh Zayed’s Walk of Cairo.

It’s been pretty dry for the IPO market: Last year saw only a single company make its EGX debut, with Taqa Arabia listing 1.35 bn shares on the exchange in a technical listing rather than an IPO. No company has made its EGX debut since, but we’re days away from Act Financial making its long-awaited IPO on the bourse, offering some 32% of the company’s shares following a capital increase.

Advisors: CI Capital and Arqaam Capital will manage the offering.

5

Startup watch

Flat6Labs to launch new USD 85 mn Africa-focused investment fund

A new Flat6Labs fund in the pipeline: Regional VC firm Flat6Labs is planning to launch a USD 85 mn seed fund that will focus on startups in Egypt, Tunisia, and Africa at large by next year, Flat6Labs CIO Dina El Shenoufy told Enterprise.

What’s next? The firm is currently in talks with a number of financial institutions — including the International Finance Corporation — over their participation in the fund, she added.

What sectors is the firm eyeing? Climate change solutions are among the firm’s priority sectors, as well as edtech, logistics, healthcare, and agritech — a field that is in high demand in Egypt and other African markets, El Shenoufy told us.

Flat6Labs’ portfolio: The firm currently manages some USD 96 mn-worth of investments in Egypt and the Arab world, El Shenoufy said. It has invested in 160 startups in the Egyptian market across various fields — including 95 companies operating in the tech, healthcare, e-commerce, and logistics sectors through its first USD 13 mn fund.

ALSO- Flat6Labs to participate in the relaunched Shell Intilaaqah Egypt Program, under a collaboration agreement with Shell Egypt, Shell Egypt said in a press release (pdf). The program aims to support over 1k Egyptian entrepreneurs a year, with Flat6Labs helping them define their mission, vision, and initial strategy.

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Also on our Radar

Marriott to open new Downtown hotel

HOSPITALITY-

Marriott to set up new Downtown hotel: Hotel brand Marriott and Reliance Egypt’s hospitality arm Reliance Ventures are partnering up to repurpose part of downtown’s Lazoghly complex — formerly the offices of the Interior Ministry — into a Moxy Hotel, according to a press release (pdf). The hotel, set to open in 2029, will be within close proximity to Tahrir Square, the Egyptian Museum, and the Cairo Opera House.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Remember: The Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) signed an agreement last March with A Developments to redevelop the Interior Ministry’s former HQ into a mixed-use complex that will include “office and co-working spaces, retail outlets and restaurants, as well as edutainment facilities.”

ENERGY-

#1- US oil giant Apache has plans to expand its operations in Egypt, this came during a meeting between President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Apache’s CEO John Christmann and other company higher ups to discuss the firm’s ongoing activities in Egypt, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The CEO also mentioned the company’s goal of boosting production over the coming period, “given the availability of ample opportunities for new discoveries.”

Remember: Apache, the country’s largest oil producer, had plans to invest USD 1.4 bn on exploration and production in Egypt this year as part of a wider plan to spend USD 3.5 bn here by 2027.

Sounds familiar? This comes shortly after news that Italian Energy giant Eni plans to drill two new wells in the Zohr field in 2H 2025 with investments of USD 160 mn. This coincided with news that the government had cleared USD 1.3 bn worth of arrears to foreign oil and gas companies operating in the country at the end of June, The government plans to clear USD 3.2 bn worth of arrears during the current fiscal year.


#2- Infinity steps foot into Sierra Leone: Our friends at renewables firm Infinity Power have inked an MoU with Sierra Leone’s Energy Ministry to develop 1 GW-worth of renewable energy projects by 2033, according to a press release (pdf). The projects will likely include “solar PV, floating PV solar, hydro, battery storage, and wind,” according to the statement.

Infinity has been taking an interest in African markets: The renewables firm also inked an MoU with the Cameroon West Regional Council last week to develop 4 GW-worth of renewable energy projects by 2035.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

Azimut launches its Furas Al Shariah fund: Asset manager Azimut has launched its shariah-compliant investment fund, dubbed in Arabic the Furas Al Shariah AZ fund, which will invest in stocks listed on the newly-launched sharia-compliant EGX33 index. The fund will not be tied to how the EGX33 weighs each company, Azimut Managing Director Ahmed Abou El Saad previously told Al Mal.

Customers can invest in the fund using Azimut’s trading app, azInvest. You can download the application from the App Store or Google Play.

IPO WATCH-

Progress on the Gogreen IPO: Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery manufacturer Gogreen for Agricultural Investment and Development has appointed Professionals For Investment Banking as independent financial advisor to prepare the fair value study of the company ahead of its IPO, Al Borsa quotes Odin Investments Chairman Hashem El Sayed as saying. Offering manager Odin Investments is looking to finalize the offering procedures to complete the IPO within the next three months, El Sayed added.

ICYMI: Gogreen is set to offer no less than 20% of its shares on the bourse. The company is temporarily listing 1.4 bn shares — spread across five phases — at a nominal value of EGP 0.10 ahead of its IPO.

REAL ESTATE-

#1- Real estate developer Madinet Masr will develop an integrated residential project in the fourth phase of Mostakbal City under a partnership agreement with Midar for Investment and Urban Development, according to a pressrelease(pdf). The 238-acre project will include apartments, villas, commercial spaces, and green areas and will be carried out under a revenue-sharing basis.

The price tag: “Upon signing the contract, an initial payment of EGP 1.07 bn was made, from a total future asset value that could reach approximately EGP 21.4 bn to be paid by 2032. The current project land’s investment value is estimated at around EGP 7.6 bn. Additionally, the agreed partnership ratio between the two parties is 62% in favor of Madinet Masr and 38% in favor of Midar,” the release said.


#2- Arco inks agreements to develop a tourist and a residential project: Real estate developer Arco inked two separate agreements with Middle East for Investment & Touristic Development and Palm Hills, Asharq Business reports, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.Middle East for Investment & Touristic Development will develop a 743-feddan Arco-owned plot on the North Coast, earning 65% of the projected EGP 200 bn revenue over 12 years. Meanwhile, Palm Hills will develop a 56-feddan residential project on a plot owned by Arco, earning 65% of the projected revenues.

EDUCATION-

Al Ahly CIRA’s Saxony Egypt University receives presidential approval: Al Ahly CIRA — an education investment company set up by CIRA Education and Al Ahly Capital Holding in 2021 — has received the greenlight from President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to commence operations at the Saxony Egypt University of Applied Sciences and Technology (SEU), the company said in a press release (pdf). SEU will launch four programs during its first year, before eventually offering over 60 different programs, under 10 faculties.

When does it kick off operations? The launch date will “depend on the completion of the required operational approvals and the completion of the first phase of construction.”

INVESTMENT-

#1- More investments from the SEII ahead? Saudi Egyptian Industrial Investment (SEII) plans to invest some USD 20 mn over the coming period, CEO Ahmed Ata told Al Borsa. The company is eyeing investments in a glass and a textile company to be carried out via capital increases.

Remember: Last month, Ata said that SEII is considering reviving its bid to acquire a majority stake in state-owned El Nasr Glass and Crystal.


#2- ECDC allocates land to Nile Sugar: The Egyptian Countryside Development Company (ECDC) inked an agreement with Nile Sugar to allocate 14k feddans of land to set up an integrated industrial-agricultural project for sugar production, according to a press release (pdf). Nile Sugar aims to complete the reclamation and cultivation of the new land within three years, starting with engineering and well-drilling.

Background: The 14k feddan allotment is part of a 1.5 mn feddan land reclamation project announced by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in 2015 as one of several national mega projects. The project involves tendering a vast expanse of land in the Western Desert to qualified investors and aims to increase the size of Egypt’s arable land by 20%.

STARTUPS-

Kemitt enters the Saudi market: Egypt-based e-commerce startup Kemitt has stepped foot into the Saudi market shortly after closing an undisclosed funding round, the company said in a press release (pdf).

**We sat down with Adham Elbedewy, Kemitt’s head of commercial and founding team member, for our My Morning Routine column back in January.

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PLANET FINANCE

The bad habits of NBFIs are a growing threat to the global financial system, the Financial Stability Board warns

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is urging global financial regulators to tighten their grip on non-banking financial institutions (better known as NBFIs). Klass Knot, the FSB chair whose name might make for a good Bond villain, expressed the worries in a letter to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ahead of their Rio de Janeiro meeting later this week, the Financial Times reports. Knot wants regulators to step up both the rollout of tighter rules and enforcement. You can read the full letter here.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

IN CONTEXT- No fire without a spark: The FSB, a key international watchdog, has been concerned about the risks posed by NBFIs since a March 2020 meltdown triggered when debt-laden hedge funds pile into cash (and sold down other assets) as the covid-19 crisis set it.

Detractors call NBFIs “shadow banks,” and Knot thinks they control AUM worth USD 218 tn — nearly half of all assets in the global financial system, exposing everyone to the risks posed by the heavily indebted sector, according to the salmon-colored paper.

THE CULPRIT- Higher leverage + less oversight and low transparency: NBFIs including hedge funds and finance companies have been “taking on additional leverage through off-balance sheet exposures, including foreign exchange swaps and forwards” that has “grown significantly over the past decade,” said Knot.

The problem: Unlike banks, which are heavily regulated, NBFIs often operate with higher leverage and less oversight, making them more susceptible to financial shocks.

The pitch: The FSB wants to see regulators demand NBFIs hold more liquid assets and engage in regular stress tests — and impose tighter rules on redemptions at money market funds.

Why the FSB matters: The body was set up in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis to monitor and make recommendations about the global financial system. Its primary purpose is to coordinate national financial authorities and international standard-setting bodies to develop and promote the implementation of effective regulatory, supervisory, and other financial sector policies. It’s quasi-governmental: The FSB is made up of the central bank governors and finance ministers of major economies, along with international financial and economic bodies such as the IMF, and the World Bank. FSB has no legally binding powers of its own.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

To indulge in the armchair analysis that the financial press loves to fall back on when looking at how markets are moving: Asian investors are mixed on the prospect of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for this fall’s elections. Shares are up in early trading in Australia, Japan, and South Korea (all key US allies in Asia), while the Shanghai Composite is down and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is flat.

Wall Street welcomed Joe Biden’s decision to step down, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all rising. US and European equities futures were up in overnight trading.

EGX30

28,992

+16.5% (YTD: +0.7%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.37

Sell 48.51

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.36

Sell 48.46

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,175

-0.2% (YTD: +1.7%)

ADX

9,279

+0.4% (YTD: -3.1%)

DFM

4,179

-0.1% (YTD: +2.9%)

S&P 500

5,564

+1.1% (YTD: +16.7%)

FTSE 100

8,199

+0.5% (YTD: +6.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,897

+1.5% (YTD: +8.3%)

Brent crude

USD 82.40

-0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.23

-0.8%

Gold

USD 2,445

+0.1%

BTC

USD 67,918

+0.3% (YTD: +60.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.8 bn (22.9% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 16.5% YTD.

In the green: Madinet Masr (+5.7%), Egypt Kuwait Holding (+3.5%), and AMOC (+2.9%).

In the red: GB Corp (-4.1%), Orascom Development (-3.5%), and Palm Hills Development (-2.1%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Heliopolis Housing and Development is paying out a dividend of EGP 1.34 per share on its 2023 earnings, after its general assembly approved the move, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). The dividends will be distributed in a single installment within a month.

8

Going Green

Why the EU is unlikely to meet its 2030 green hydrogen production and import targets

Europe’s green hydrogen targets could turn out to be a pipe dream: The EU’s targets for expanding its green hydrogen market are “unrealistic,” the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said in a report (pdf) on the bloc’s industrial policy for green hydrogen. The bloc’s targets of producing 10 mn tons of green hydrogen and importing another 10 mn tons by 2030 under its REPower EU plan “turned out to be overly ambitious” and are unlikely to be met, the audit body said. The European Commission “did not undertake robust analyses” before setting the targets, it added.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Background: With the launch of the European Green Deal in 2019, the EU set forth the goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050 — in other words, achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within that time frame. The target is legally binding under the European Climate Law. Recognizing that green hydrogen could catalyze the transition toward climate neutrality, the European Commission adopted the EU Hydrogen Strategy in 2020. Two years later, it set more ambitious hydrogen targets as part of the REPower EU plan, which aims to eliminate the bloc’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels by the end of the decade in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The hydrogen targets are non-binding: The EU’s production and import targets are non-binding for member states and are “more aspirational than compulsory,” the report reads. Not all countries set their own targets, and those who did aren’t necessarily aligned with the Commission’s targets, the report reads. However, member states did have to set national energy and climate plans (NECPs), which may include green hydrogen targets. Some 24 members of the 27-nation bloc had submitted their NECPs by last December.

Only one country has committed to green hydrogen targets in its NECP: Of the 24 states who submitted NECPs, only Germany had included green hydrogen import targets as of last December. None set forth production targets.

The strategy is more ambitious than the sum of its parts: The sum of the installed electrolyser capacity targets set by 16 member states in their NECPs ranged from 46 GW to 50 GW of input, well below the installed capacity needed to produce 10 metric tons of green hydrogen. Additionally, some of this capacity pertains to low-carbon hydrogen rather than green hydrogen.

Accessing funds is no walk in the park: The estimated EUR 18.8 bn of funding earmarked by the EU for hydrogen-related projects between 2021 and 2027 is scattered over several programs with different funding rules. The fragmented funds make it difficult for hydrogen project developers to identify the program that is best suited to their needs. Some 72.3% of the funds are allocated by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), while the remainder comes from an array of programs managed by different Commission directorates-general according to different management modes.

Public investment plans have some ways to go: While much of the investments along the hydrogen value chain will have to be financed by the private sector, public investment is crucial to support the development of hydrogen infrastructure and a green hydrogen market, according to the report. As of yet, however, the EU’s estimates of investments needed are “not exhaustive,” the report reads, with the Commission not in possession of complete data on either national or EU-wide plans. And while the Commission has taken steps to ease individual member state’s ability to provide aid to shepherd the green transition along, hurdles still remain in deploying that aid, slowing down projects in the pipeline.

The demand isn’t quite there: According to the report, demand for green hydrogen “will not even reach 10 Mt by 2030, let alone 20 Mt.” Hydrogen accounted for less than 2% of Europe’s energy consumption in 2022, with most of the demand for hydrogen coming from refineries. Some 96% of the hydrogen used in Europe that year was produced using natural gas, generating significant CO2 emissions.

It’s a catch-22 situation: Seeing as the green hydrogen market is nascent, demand is needed for supply to grow and vice versa, resulting in what the report describes as the “chicken and egg” problem.

Pricing is a sticking point, too: The EU’s Hydrogen Strategy states that renewable energy should be available at a competitive price, without setting a target for the cost of producing hydrogen. In contrast, the US’s Clean Hydrogen Strategy (pdf) targets a production cost of USD 2 per kilo by 2026 and USD 1 per kilo by 2031.

On a slightly brighter note, the report did say that some of the countries on the European green hydrogen vanguard already have projects entering the advanced phases — notably Germany and the Netherlands, which are also actively developing green hydrogen pipeline infrastructure. The report notes that some ministry representatives the audit body met with see the 2023-2030 targets as “no-regret” measures, meaning that “they are worth implementing whatever the actual market developments turn out to be.”

Industry players are urging the commission to keep its feet on the ground: Industry body Hydrogen Europe earlier this month sent a letter to the European Commission outlining some of the policy adjustments it thinks are needed over the next five years in order for the bloc’s hydrogen ambitions to “materialize in time for our 2030 reality check,” the body said. Key among these, the letter notes, is a greater level of public investment that will “derisk” the industry’s development. “Europe needs to move from the notional inclusion of hydrogen in the energy mix to an earnest development of the hydrogen economy” in order to hit its 2030 targets, it asserted.

The commission responds: “Our work is far from finished,” the commission commented on the ECA report in an emailed statement picked up by Bloomberg. “We now have to accelerate the deployment and uptake of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen in Europe and further develop this emerging market.”

Still can’t get enough green hydrogen? In a recent Going Green, we take a look at the barriers facing green hydrogen production in Egypt.


Your top green economy stories for the week:

  • Galina, AgriCash to facilitate agri-financing: Agrifood player Galina has signed a strategic alliance with farmer-focused fintech AgriCash to help facilitate agri-financing for small and medium farmers and encourage more sustainable farming practices. (Press release | pdf)
  • AMEA Power to expand its renewables projects: UAE-based Al Nowais' AMEA Power got the greenlight from the cabinet to expand its renewable energy projects by next summer — the expansion will see AMEA up its renewable capacity in the country by 2 GW.

2024

JULY

25 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of the 23 July revolution.

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

3-5 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

25-28 September (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Water and Climate: Building Resilient Communities, Cairo, Egypt.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

30 September (Monday): Ban on sugar exports expiration.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

September 2024: Turkish-Egyptian Business Council meeting in Turkey.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

End of 2024: Shalateen Mining Company to launch a gold exploration tender in the Eastern Desert.

2025

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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