Good morning, friends. It’s an unusually quiet morning with the new cycle dominated by one story —- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s inauguration and policy program he outlined in his inauguration speech through the end of his term in 2030.

The big theme: We’re in a “race against time” to move the needle on development, El Sisi said, promising that his administration would shore up revenues flowing into the treasury while rationalizing public spending. Becoming a regional hub for energy, trade, and transport centered around the Suez Canal is a key priority, he said, building on themes his administration developed in his most recent term.

There’s still no sign of a cabinet shuffle, but that could come any day now. Mostafa Bakry, the well-connected MP and journalist, said on X last night that cabinet will gather today for its weekly meeting. He expects the ministers to offer their resignation, allowing El Sisi to appoint a new government.

Sound smart: Freshly inaugurated presidents (returning or new in office) must under Article 146 of the Constitution appoint a prime minister to “form the government and present his program to the House of Representatives.” If the House doesn’t give the government a majority vote of confidence within 30 days, the president appoints a PM based on a nomination from whoever holds a plurality of seats in the House. El Sisi could also use Article 147 to ask Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly to continue to serve and ask him to engage in a more modest shuffle of ministers.

QUESTION OF THE MORNING- When is Eid? Eid Al Fitr is likely to begin on Wednesday, 10 April and last through Friday, 12 April, the domestic press suggests, citing forecasts. Dar Al Ifta will hold its traditional crescent sighting next Monday to determine if the feast begins next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Over in the GCC: Saudi has declared separate holidays for banks and capital markets (they’re off all next week) and for the private sector (off Tuesday through Friday). In the UAE, the eid starts on Monday for the private sector and businesses are due to reopen their doors on 3 Shawwal, whatever day that winds up being on the Gregorian calendar.

It would be fantastic if officials could give us the same clarity to allow businesses to plan.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- In the latest sign that the float of the EGP is working, banks are chewing their way through the backlog. “We processed thousands of transactions in the days immediately after Egypt adopted a flexible exchange rate,” our friend HSBC Egypt CEO Todd Wilcox told us. That’s the result of good FX availability “reflecting both healthy interbank trading activity and strong investor inflows,” he said. “Having our dedicated Center of Excellence for Trade at the HSBC Cairo Global Service Center was a real advantage in ramping up processing volumes and speeds and ensuring that clients’ cash management needs, supply chain, and risk-mitigation requirements were met as market conditions changed.”

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HAPPENING TODAY-

Private sector health check incoming: S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for March shortly after we hit send this morning. All eyes will beon the gauge to see the effect of the float on the growth — or lack thereof — of the country’s non-oil private sector and business confidence.

Could we finally buck the trend? After having been in contraction for 39 straight months and falling to an 11-month low last month on the back of Red Sea disruptions and high inflation, there is reasonable hope that the end of the FX shortage, death of the parallel market, and clearing of port backlogs — all stemming from the float of the EGP — may put the private sector on a new trajectory.

** So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:15 pm in the capital city, and you’ll have until 4:12 am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.

WEATHER- It’s another warm day in Cairo, with a high of 30°C and a low of 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 24°C and a low of 15°C.

DATA POINT-

Tourist arrivals were up 4% y-o-y in 1Q 2024 to 3.7 mn, but arrivals to Sharm El Sheikh were down 20% y-o-y in the same period, Asharq Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. Egypt initially wanted to welcome 18 mn tourists this year but that target is looking increasingly difficult due to the geopolitical tensions in the region, Tourism Minister Ahmed Issa said in February.

Remember: Egypt received a record 14.9 mn tourists in 2023 — up 27% y-o-y and in line with the state’s target to reel in 15 mn tourists during the year — despite the headwinds that the industry has been facing stemming from conflict in the region.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Visa launches new AI-powered risk management solutions: Our friends at Visa have unveiled three new AI-powered risk and fraud prevention solutions as part of its end-to-end Visa Protect suite, Visa said in a statement (pdf). The solutions, which will roll out to clients later this year, include:

• Advanced authorization and risk manager for non-Visa card payments: Visa has extended the coverage of its fraud risk management tools to include non-Visa card transactions, allowing issuers to have a comprehensive fraud protection solution.
• Provisioning intelligence: The tool boosts the security of the tokenization process by detecting the likelihood of token frauds in the provisioning requests.
• Real-time, account-to-account payment protection: The product provides a real-time risk score for instant payment transactions, like digital wallets and account-to-account transfers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The global business press is focused on the war in Gaza and tensions in Syria, with the two stories leading or getting prominent play everywhere from the Wall Street Journal to Reuters and Bloomberg.

#1- Israel’s military expressed “sincere sorrow” that it had killed seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen in an airstrike on Gaza, saying the strike was a mistake. The attack prompted the Biden administration to offer its toughest criticism yet of the Netanyahu government.

#2- Iran is furious and has vowed to respond after Israel killed top Iranian military officials in an attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus despite diplomatic compounds having protected status under the Vienna Convention. Israel’s defense minister was unapologetic, saying, “We are in a multifront war, offensively and defensively.”

IN BUSINESS- Tesla’s shares plunged after quarterly deliveries fell for the first time since 2020, CNBC reports.The 8.5% drop in deliveries was worse than analysts had penciled in, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg add.

FAR, FAR AFIELD- The moon is about to get its own timezone. “The White House on Tuesday directed NASA to establish a unified standard of time for the moon and other celestial bodies, as the United States aims to set international norms in space amid a growing lunar race among nations and private companies,” Reuters writes in an exclusive.

MARKET WATCH-

Oil prices creep up close to October highs: Oil prices have been steadily climbing up since December, fueled by OPEC+’s voluntary supply cuts, strong demand outlook for 2024, Red Sea tension, which has prompted cargo ships to take the longer and more oil-consuming routes to avoid the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, writes Bloomberg.

Brent is now trading at USD 88.9 a barrel: After falling from a year high of over USD 96 a barrel in late September, Brent crude fell to under USD 74 a barrel in mid-December and has since steadily recovered to trade at USD 88.92 a barrel as of the end of trading last night. Short term oil futures are also trading hands at a markup far above other futures with later dates, which means demand for the time being is considerable, according to Bloomberg.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a look at BlackRock boss and markets sage Larry Fink’s insights into how to tackle a growing demand for infrastructure investment amid mounting public debt through public-private partnerships.