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Egypt wants more time to implement IMF reforms

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What We're Tracking Today

Gov’t wants more time to implement the IMF’s reforms

Good morning, all. We have a packed issue for you this morning led by news that the Madbouly government wants more time to implement the economic reforms put forward by the IMF and the FRA giving Beltone Financial Holding and Italy’s CRIF Ratings the greenlight to set up the country’s second credit rating agency.

BUT FIRST- Please join us extending our heartfelt sympathies to the Allam family on the passing of May Essam Allam, beloved sister of our friends Hassan Essam Allam and Amr Essam Allam (the CEO and co-CEO, respectively, of Hassan Allam Holding) and of Mariam Essam Allam. May (1991-2024) passed after a long and courageous battle with cancer. She was a remarkable woman whose grace, resilience, and courage touched all of those who knew her. May she rest in peace.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Egypt asks IMF for more time to implement reforms: The Madbouly government has reportedly asked the International Monetary Fund for an extension on the timeline for the implementation of economic reforms that were agreed upon as part of our loan program, an anonymous government official told CNN Business Arabic. The reforms will still be implemented, “but over a longer time frame,” the outlet quotes the official as saying.

We may have an idea of which reforms the gov’t would want to put off: The reforms Egypt is looking to postpone implementing are the ones that would represent the biggest burden on Egyptian households, Capital Economics’ James Swanston told the outlet, pointing to reforms that have to do with lifting subsidies.

Remember: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi signaled that Egypt may reevaluate its agreement with the IMF as a result of current economic pressures, saying on Sunday that “if this challenge forces me to place unbearable pressure on the public, we must review the situation with the IMF.”


#2- A lot of new hospitals incoming: The government is currently studying offers from local and foreign investors to build hospitals on ten plots of land across the country, Health Ministry Spokesperson Hossam Abdel Ghaffar told Asharq Business.


#3- A new poverty index: The Planning Ministry is set to launch a national multidimensional poverty index, Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat said during a roundtable yesterday without providing a timeline. The index will “guide strategies aimed at reducing poverty rates, strengthening national capacities regarding multidimensional poverty data, and ensuring the issuance of high-accuracy quantitative and qualitative indicators.”

It’s been some time since we’ve had an official poverty measure: State statistics agency Capmas hasn’t published its biennial income and expenditure survey — which included poverty rates — since 2020. The latest survey showed the poverty rate falling for the first time in two decades in the fiscal year 2019-2020, with 29.7% of the population living below the poverty line.

FACT CHECK-

#1- Car import quotas do not exist: There is no such a thing as car import quotas set by the government, the cabinet said in a statement in response to media reports claiming that the government plans to cut the monthly car import quota to 8k per month from 10k previously.

Then what’s up with the auto market? The process of importing cars into the country is pretty complex, one source in the trade sector told us, adding that the process is going through various channels and taking into account the availability of FX.


#2- Feerum Egypt hasn’t backed out of the grain silo factory: The Egyptian arm of the Polish grain silo manufacturer Feerum has not withdrawn its investment from its planned EGP 1.6 bn grain silo project with Egyptian construction and engineering firm Samcrete and the state-owned Egyptian Holding Company for Silos and Storage, Feerum board member Ahmed El Mofty told Al Borsa. He added that the company is set to hold a meeting with Supply Minister Sherif Farouk next Sunday to get final approval for its grain silo manufacturing plant in East Port Said.

The backstory: Earlier this week, local media reported that Feerum would be pulling out of its grain siloproject after the Supply Ministry canceled an order for a silo, reportedly hampering negotiations with local banks over financing. The company had been in talks with the Commercial International Bank, Banque Misr, the National Bank of Egypt, and First Abu Dhabi Bank to secure an EGP 1.8 bn loan to help fund the factory, which is set to cost EGP 2.3 bn.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s day one of the annual Brics Summit in Russia: The heads of Brics nations — including President Abdel Fattah El Sisi — are in the Russian city of Kazan for the three-day Brics Summit to discuss economic cooperation, trade, and global governance.

Keep your ears open for some diplomacy developments: During his time in Russia, El Sisi is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.


#2- It’s day two of the World Bank and IMF annual meetings: The American capital is busier than usual today, with the world’s finance ministers, central bank governors, and other big names in finance and policy in town for the six-day International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Annual Meetings. The meetings kicked off yesterday and will run until Saturday. Check out the full schedule on the event’s official website.

What to expect: Yesterday’s Planet Finance laid out the big themes to look out for and the global challenges structuring the conversation.

PSA-

WEATHER- We are in for another cool day in the capital, with a high of 28°C and a low of 20°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more or less the same in Alexandria, with a high of 27°C and a low of 21°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Falak Startups is hosting a Fund Manager Masterclass in Cairo from 10-12 November, targeting emerging fund managers, entrepreneurs, and angel investors. The three-day, EBRD-supported event will take you through everything you need to know about VC funds from raising funds to successfully exiting companies. Early registration is available until 1 November through the link shared on Falak Startups’ LinkedIn account.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.


ENTERPRISEAM IS LOOKING FOR SMART, TALENTED PEOPLE of all backgrounds to help us build some very cool new things. EnterpriseAM — the essential morning read on all the important news shaping business and the economy in Egypt, GCC, and the wider region — is looking for writers, reporters, and editors to help us build out new publications.

Never worked in a newsroom before? We have the EnterpriseAM Business Writing Development Program. Whether you are a recent graduate, an industry vet, or looking to switch careers, the EnterpriseAM Business Writing Development Program will give you the tools you need to tell the most important stories to our audience of C-suite officials, government ministers, diplomats, financiers, investors, and entrepreneurs.

Not an internship program — a career: The three-month program will see full-time, paid participants take part in workshops and lectures from veteran business journalists on subject matter knowledge, while also working on constructing and filing EnterpriseAM stories that will run on any of our publications. Those who have successfully completed the program, will then be given long-term job offers.

Apply directly to jobs@enterprisemea.com and mention “writing development program” in your subject line.


PLUS- We’re also looking for our first dedicated audience development professional. Someone who loves the challenge of helping us reach new readers in new markets — Saudi, the UAE, and lots more to come —using a range of digital channels and tools. You’re someone who thrives on working in a small, focused team. You’ve got proven digital skills (more likely than not on the performance marketing side). And you want to be part of what we immodestly think is the region’s most exciting media, advisory, and business intelligence company.

Interested? Tell Patrick and Moustafa why and send us your resume on newjobs@enterprise.news. We’d love to hear from you today. The position is based in Cairo, offers two days a week working anywhere you please, and offers a competitive package. (We’re also pretty nice people to work with, if we don’t say so ourselves.)

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US elections and attempts towards a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon are once again pushing business news to the bottom of digital front pages.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s return to the Middle East in hopes of securing a ceasefire — for the eleventh time — is getting attention, as other US officials held talks in Beirut for conditions for a ceasefire. It’s not clear where Blinken will be holding ceasefire talks in the region.

The situation on the ground: Israel continued to strike Beirut and Syria yesterday, killing at least four near one of Lebanon’s largest public hospitals and two in a missile attack on a car in Syria. Crowds of Palestinians were evacuated from the Jabaliya refugee camp, where around 400 people have been killed over the past two weeks, while over in Lebanon, Israel is setting its sights on a hospital it says houses Hezbollah money — a claim yet to be backed up by any sort of evidence. (Reuters | Bloomberg | CNN | The Guardian)

SPEAKING OF CEASEFIRE- Egypt proposes new, “smaller” ceasefire agreement as bridge to more comprehensive accord: Egyptian officials met with Shin Bet director Ronen Bar in Cairo on Sunday, reportedly putting forth a proposal for a “small” agreement that would see some of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas released in exchange for a short ceasefire in Gaza, Axios reports, citing unnamed Israeli officials. The proposal suggested that the temporary ceasefire would then be followed by renewed negotiations over a more comprehensive hostage and ceasefire agreement, the officials added.

The meeting follows the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week — which the Shin Bet director said presents an opportunity to begin negotiations afresh, according to a source speaking to the outlet.

Not everyone is on board with the idea: While Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly supported Egypt’s proposal, the country’s finance and national security ministers both opposed it, the officials said.

ALSO RECEIVING ATTENTION- The US elections money race, in which Kamala Harris is emerging as a victor with some USD 1 bn raised in three months, surpassing the USD 894 mn Donald Trump has gathered since January 2023 for his campaign. (Financial Times)

Elon Musk’s pledge to hand out USD 1 mn checks to voters signing for his free-speech and gun rights petition is also seeing some scrutiny in the foreign press, with legal experts weighing in on whether the move could be seen as an illegal way of paying people to vote.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at the challenges and solutions to making green hydrogen blending in Egypt a reality.

Somabay, every reason to fall in love.

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Investment Watch

Raya Foods eyes USD 20 mn factory to boost exports

Half of Helios’ USD 40 mn acquisition bid for Raya Foods will go towards building a new factory: Raya Food’s parent company Raya Holding will direct USD 20 mn of Helios Investment Partners’ USD 40 mn bid for 49% of the subsidiary towards building a second factory partly dedicated to freeze-dried fruits and vegetables, Raya Holding CEO Ahmed Khalil told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 4:07)

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

All part of a bigger plan to increase exports — and in turn FX revenues: The plan is to turn the company from the country’s second-largest frozen produce exporter — with an annual production capacity of 50k tons — to the country’s largest, the company said in a statement (pdf) released earlier this week. The new factory will most likely be set up next to its existing factory in Sadat City, according to Khalil — and its use of freeze-drying produce will play an important role in helping the company boost exports.

We also got a breakdown of Helios’ offer for the company: Of the USD 40 mn on the table from Helios, USD 14 mn will go towards a capital increase, USD 9 mn for a mezzanine loan that can be converted into ownership, and an undisclosed amount for a secondary purchase, according to comments from Khalil and a disclosure (pdf) from the company.

Raya Holding is eyeing expansions in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Poland: The group has big plans for its Raya IT arm in the kingdom, along with its call center subsidiary Raya CX that can take advantage of the government’s Saudization program, Khalil said, adding that the company’s non-banking financial services outfit Aman is also well-positioned to grow in the kingdom. Expansions in Nigeria and Poland are also on the agenda.

ANOTHER LOCAL FOOD MANUFACTURING PLAYER IS EYEING EXPANSION-

Expansion and export are also on Domty’s agenda: EGX-listed dairy company Domty has plans to invest EGP 200 mn next year, with a focus on the baked goods sector and expanding exports, CEO and Vice Chairman Mohamed El Damaty told Al Mal. The investments will follow EGP 150 mn already invested so far in 2024, El Damaty added. Domty is in negotiations over a 25k sqm land plot adjacent to its factories in the Sixth of October to accommodate its planned expansion.

It’s been a big month for Domty: Danish Arla Foods was given the go-ahead earlier this week by Domty’s board to conduct due diligence for its bid to acquire up to 100% of the local cheesemaker in a transaction that valued the company at some USD 183 mn. A full takeover seems unlikely, however, with Arla expecting the founding El Damaty family to keep a stake in the company, with El Damaty to continue to lead the company as CEO.

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DEBT WATCH

Beltone’s leasing arm raises EGP 1.3 bn in first securitization issuance

Beltone Leasing and Factoring closes first securitization issuance: Beltone Holding subsidiary Beltone Leasing and Factoring has closed its first securitized bond issuance, raising some EGP 1.3 bn, the company said in a press release (pdf). The three-tranche issuance, with tenors ranging from 12-48 months, received ratings from AA+ to A from the Middle East Rating and Investors Service (MERIS). The issuance was 1.5x oversubscribed.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What they said: “The 1.5x oversubscription further emphasizes confidence in our ability to manage a robust and high-performing portfolio. This successful transaction not only highlights our strength but also unlocks new capital streams that will propel our future growth and innovation, driving us to set new benchmarks in the industry,” Deputy Head of NBFIs for Leasing, Factoring, and Consumer Finance at Beltone Amir Ghannam said.

Advisors: Beltone Investment Banking’s Debt Capital Markets Division acted as financial advisor, manager, and bookrunner. The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) served as custodian for the transaction. Al Ahly Pharos acted as arranger, and FABMisr as co-arranger. Dreny & Partners provided legal counsel, while KPMG served as external auditor.

Who bought in? NBE, First Abu Dhabi Bank Misr (FABMisr), Banque du Caire, and Suez Canal Bank acted as underwriters, and the Industrial Development Bank subscribed to the issuance.

DATA POINT- This issuance brings the total value of securitized bonds issued in Egypt this year to EGP 22.5 bn, according to data tracked by EnterpriseAM Egypt.

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Startup watch

Egypt’s Sawari Ventures is launching its USD 200 mn Sawari Ventures Fund II

Cairo-based Sawari Ventures is launching its Sawari Ventures Fund II in early 2025 with a target size of USD 200 mn, a representative from Sawari Ventures told EnterpriseAM.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: “As with our Fund I, this will be a dual fund structure, consisting of an Egypt-domiciled fund, bringing together our Egyptian investors and investing in Egypt, and a foreign-domiciled fund, bringing in mostly international investors and DFIs, covering Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Kenya, and West Africa,” the representative added. Of the total fund, around 70% — c. USD 140 mn — will be invested in Egypt over four to five years.

The targets: The fund is targeting startups in the Series A and B stages, with a small amount of financing allocated for startups in the seed stage, he added. Sectorally, the fund manager plans to double down on fintech and deeptech, while also expanding its investments in edtech and healthtech. Climate tech and agritech are also on the agenda.

Branching out: “With this fund, we are looking to double down on the successes of our inaugural fund, while branching out into new sectors and regions that we see tremendous opportunities for growth and impact in,” the representative said.

What’s next? The company is looking to reach its first close in early 2025, the representative said. The company aims to invest the total target of USD 200 mn over a period of four to five years.

Remember: While local startups raised a combined USD 88.7 mn across 39 transactions during the first half of the year, Egypt’s startup scene has been marked by volatility and continues to lag behind other countries in the region — particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

What about Sawari Ventures Fund I? It had an initial volume of USD 70 mn and included an Egypt-domiciled fund that brought in investors like Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, Suez Canal Bank, and a Netherlands-domiciled fund which brought together international investors like the European Investment Bank and Sango Capital and deployed investments across Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco.

CORRECTION- We mistakenly reported in the original version of the story that the fund had a size of USD 30 mn. The fund instead has a target size of USD 200 mn. The story has been amended.

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FINANCIAL SERVICES

Beltone Financial Holding, CRIF alliance is setting up Egypt’s second credit rating agency

Beltone and CRIF have got the FRA’s greenlight to become the country’s second credit rating agency: Beltone Financial Holding and Italy’s CRIF Ratings were chosen by the Financial Regulatory Authority in June to set up the country’s second credit rating agency, the authority said in a statement yesterday. The alliance scored the highest on a set of criteria assessing all those who applied for a license

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

And then there were two: Once the new credit rating agency gets off the ground, the Middle East Rating and Investors Service (MERIS) — a joint venture between Moody’s and Finance and Banking Consultants International (FinBi) — will no longer be the country’s sole credit rating agency.

But what does a credit rating agency do exactly? At its core, a credit rating agency assesses the creditworthiness of entities — which in the case of the license being offered up the FRA is securities. The license from the FRA will allow the newly-formed credit rating agency to assess the issuer of the security, the nitty-gritty details of the security, and its collateral, along with broader economic factors — think interest rates, growth rates, inflation — and then give the security a rating that ranks the risk of default.

A rating isn’t just for show: Without accurate and fair ratings, it makes it much harder for investors to assess the risks of acquiring certain debts and muddies the water in terms of pricing — effectively putting off investors altogether.

Speeding up the process: The establishment of another credit rating agency is expected to speed up the process of issuing debt — the process currently takes some 66 days, according to Asharq Business.

They weren’t the only companies vying for the license: An alliance of state-backed credit bureau I-Score and American credit rating giant S&P Global Ratings alongside another alliance made up of local investment advisory firm MGM Financial Banking and Consultants and India-based Infomerics Valuation and Rating also made bids for the license late last year.

Remember: The search for another rating agency to handle the growing popularity of local asset-backed securities has been in the works for a few years. The FRA scrapped its requirement that at least 10% of the agency be owned by international firms in a bid to move the process along. The authority was in negotiations with an unnamed company interested in the license in 2022 before opening the door for applications in August 2023.

What’s next? We’re yet to hear when we will see the credit rating agency launch — or even what its name will be — but we do know from the FRA that they’ve started the process of establishing and licensing the agency.

6

Moves

Delta Sugar’s Ahmed Abdel Hafez resigns

Delta Sugar is on the lookout for a new MD: Delta Sugar Chairman and Managing Director Ahmed Abdel Hafez submitted his resignation, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). His resignation will now be presented to the board of directors.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Two children dead after being run over by train in Egypt

Tragedy on the railways: Two young siblings were struck by a train while trying to cross the railway tracks on their way to school in a village in southern Giza on Monday morning, according to a statement from the National Railway Authority.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The railway crossing was closed at the time of the incident and a guard was present at the site. However, the children attempted to cross at an unauthorized location, leading to the fatal accident, Al Masry Al Youm managing editor Yousry El Badry told El Hekaya’s Amr Adib (watch, runtime: 3:00). Following the accident, some residents gathered to assault the guard and set fire to his cabin. Adib criticized the statement put out by the NRA for neglecting to offer condolences to the children’s families, claiming that it was an attempt by the authority to absolve itself from blame over the incident (watch, runtime: 1:22).

Cycling accident injures eight: Eight cyclists from the 6 October Club were injured in an accident on the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road on Sunday, with some accounts stating that it was a car collision and others claiming that the cyclists crashed into each other while a speeding truck passed by. El Badry discussed the incident with Adib (watch, runtime: 2:06).

ALSO- Unsubsidized bread prices on the rise as bakeries price in higher fuel costs: Some bakeries have raised the price of non-subsidized bread by EGP 0.25-0.50 per loaf, said Khaled Fikry, the secretary-general of the bakery division at the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, told Salaat El Tahrir’s Faten Abdel Maaboud (watch, runtime: 4:08).

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Also on our Radar

Egypt will lead the International Gas Union from 2028 to 2031

ENERGY-

#1- Egypt to lead key global gas organization starting in 2028: Egypt has been chosen to lead the International Gas Union (IGU) for a three-year term starting 2028, after assuming the vice presidency between 2025 and 2028, according to a press release (pdf). Taqa Arabia and Egyptian Gas Association chairman Khaled Abu Bakr will represent Egypt in the new position, which will also see Egypt host the World Gas Conference in 2031.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What can we expect from an Egypt-led IGU? “Our future vision for the energy sector is centered on three main objectives: strengthening energy security by enhancing gas infrastructure in underserved areas, ensuring affordability by bolstering the industry’s resilience to price volatility, and advancing sustainability through enabling investments in green hydrogen, e-methanol, and greener fuels to lower emissions,” Abu Bakr said.


#2- Apache to expand production in Egypt: US oil producer Apache plans to increase its daily natural gas production 11% to 500 mn cf and invest some USD 1.3 bn on its production of crude oil — through its JV with EGPC Khalda Petroleum — during the current fiscal year, an unnamed government source told Al Arabiya.

The how: Khalda Petroleum plans to raise crude oil and condensate production by 5% to 145k barrels a day. Khalda is also planning to invest in a new drilling rig for its Abu Gharadig field in the Western Desert field this November, as part of its drive to maximize production.

We saw this coming: We got wind back in July that the company was planning to expand production in the coming period in light of “the availability of ample opportunities for new discoveries.” Apache had planned to invest USD 1.4 bn on exploration and production in Egypt in 2024 as part of a wider plan to spend USD 3.5 bn here by 2027.

M&A-

#1- Atlas taps financial advisor as it mulls Amoun’s MTO: Atlas For Investment and Food Industries has tapped financial consultancy Eagle Advisors as independent financial advisor, following Amoun for Real Estate and Tourism Development’s mandatory tender offer to acquire 65.59% of Atlas, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). Eagle Advisors is expected to present its valuation report at least five working days before the offer expires on Tuesday, 12 November.

Remember: Amoun has offered to purchase around 427.2 mn of Atlas’ shares for EGP 0.78 a piece, putting the transaction’s value at EGP 333.22 mn by our math.


#2- GTEX offloads its stake in Baird Group: GTEX Holding’s board has approved the sale of its 98.15% stake in UK menswear retail subsidiary Baird Group to Romani Ventures, owned by Concrete Fashion Group CEO Alaa Arafa, for USD 1.5 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf).

LOGISTICS-

#1- Land shipping rates up 20% following fuel prices rise: A number of land freight service providers raised shipping rates by 20% over the weekend in line with the recent fuel price hike, Al Mal reports.

Transportation and logistics platforms are also adjusting their fees, with AlMal reporting that a number of sector companies are preparing to hike prices 7-10% across the board to preserve profit margins.


#2- Gov’t plans to set up a cargo city: The government is planning to establish a cargo city — dubbed Cairo Cargo City — that will double the volume of goods transported, Civil Aviation Minister Sameh Elhefny said, according to Asharq Business.

Remember: Chinese state-owned construction firm and China Energy subsidiary Gezhouba Group proposed establishing a “logistics cargo city” at Cairo International Airport during a meeting with the Aviation Ministry in September.

PRIVATIZATION-

Gov’t to appoint investment bank to manage the sale of Sinai Manganese: Chemical Industries Holding Company (CIHC) is reportedly looking to appoint an investment bank to manage the listing of Sinai Manganese, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed sources. Four banks have already expressed interest in managing the sale and the company should decide on one in 1Q 2025. The jury remains out on whether Sinai Manganese will be listed on the EGX or if it will be sold to a strategic investor instead.

Remember: Several local and international investors were reportedly looking to grab a stake in the state-owned company, which was being shopped around by the Sovereign Fund of Egypt ahead of the sale.

AVIATION-

A new route connecting Egypt and Kuwait: Emirati Air Arabia subsidiary Air Arabia Egypt is set to launch thrice-weekly direct flights between Cairo and Kuwait City starting 14 January, the airline said in a statement

RETAIL-

Raya Distribution is now the sole distributor of Kenwood kitchen appliances: Raya Holding subsidiary Raya Distribution inked a partnership agreement with Italian appliance company De'Longhi Group — the owner of the De'Longhi, Kenwood, and Braun brands — to become the exclusive agent and official distributor for Kenwood’s built-in kitchen appliances in Egypt, according to a company statement (pdf).

DEBT-

ECHEM is seeking USD 700 mn in financing: Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM) is looking to secure some USD 700 mn to finance its soda ash project, a silicon production project, and its bioethanol production project in Damietta, two unnamed sources told Asharq Business.

Who’s involved? The company reportedly plans to secure the funds from Emirates NBD, the National Bank of Kuwait, and Qatar National Bank, alongside the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Afreximbank.

9

PLANET FINANCE

The (gains) party on Wall Street could be winding down

In the decade ahead, returns from the S&P 500 aren’t expected to remain as high as they were in the past 10 years, according to two separate notes from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Where the market stands now: With a two-year bull market under its belt, the S&P recently delivered its best 9M performance in 27 years, rising c.21% during the January-September period, according to market data. Historically speaking, in the years that the index has delivered double-digit increases during the first three quarters of a year, it typically records a positive fourth quarter as well.

The rally could be winding down and US equities are likely looking at a much leaner decade ahead, Goldman Sachs strategists including David Kostin said in a note, according to Bloomberg. The investment bank sees S&P 500’s annualized nominal returns clocking in at just 3% over the next 10 years, well below the long-term average of 11% and a far cry from the 13% recorded in the last decade.

Bonds are the new black: The analysis suggests that equities will take a backseat as assets like bonds become more appealing. Goldman sees a 72% chance that the S&P 500 will underperform treasuries, and a 33% likelihood that it will lag behind inflation through to 2034, meaning investors should brace for lower-end stock market returns.

Local + global conditions make it “difficult to get further upside”: It’s unlikely that the S&P 500 will continue to register the same levels of return growth, Deutsche Bank analysts also said.

“With a soft economic landing increasingly priced in, it feels more difficult to get further upside growth surprises from here,” the analysts said, particularly when considering potential external shocks from geopolitical turmoil.

Big tech is delaying the slide, but won’t save the day: While the S&P 500 has bounced back by 23% this year, the boost was largely driven by a few tech giants. Goldman’s team anticipates broader returns in the years to come, predicting that the equal-weighted S&P 500 will outperform the market cap-weighted benchmark. Even if the tech-heavy rally continues, average returns won’t top 5% — remaining below the historical norm.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

Europe wants its very own SEC: The European Securities and Markets Authority (Esma) is making a bid to become the EU’s equivalent of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with Esma seeing the need for greater centralization in supervising the bloc’s capital markets, President Verena Ross tells the Financial Times. The Paris-based watchdog aims to tighten its grip on Europe’s stock exchanges and financial infrastructure, seeking to revitalize the region's markets and boost investor confidence amid rising demand for capital.

Not everyone’s on board: Smaller EU member states like Luxembourg and Ireland are pushing back, worried the plan could undermine their local markets which rely more on localized authority. Meanwhile, bigger players like France and Germany are all for the move, seeing the benefits of syncing regulations across borders. “Let’s evaluate in which areas it would make sense to move a step further to central EU supervision,” Ross added.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

US futures are a sea of red this morning, extending yesterday’s downturn and dragging down early trading in Asia-Pacific markets. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei is firmly in the red this morning, while Hong Kong’s HSI is timidly in the green.

EGX30

30,445

+3.1% (YTD: +22.3%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.59

Sell 48.73

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.59

Sell 48.69

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,008

+1.1% (YTD: +0.3%)

ADX

9,275

-0.1% (YTD: -3.1%)

DFM

4,478

+0.2% (YTD: +10.3%)

S&P 500

5,854

-0.2% (YTD: +22.7%)

FTSE 100

8,358

-0.3% (YTD: +8.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,941

-0.9% (YTD: +9.3%)

Brent crude

USD 74.00

+1.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.31

+2.4%

Gold

USD 2,739

+0.3%

BTC

USD 67,697

-1.6% (YTD: +60.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 3.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.2 bn (3.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 22.3% YTD.

In the green: Oriental Weavers (+18.7%), Edita (+12.8%), and Palm Hills Developments (+9.0%).

In the red: Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.1%) Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt -USD (-0.2%)..

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Heliopolis Housing and Development’s general assembly approved a decision to raise the company’s issued capital to EGP 1 bn, up from EGP 333.8 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The increase will be distributed across 1.3 bn shared with a nominal value of EGP 0.25 each.


#2- Mohandes Life Ins.’ assembly approved paying out dividends worth EGP 70 mn on its FY 2023-2024 earnings, with the parent company and 99.9% owner of the subsidiary Mohandes Ins. receiving EGP 69.93 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Mohandes Life Ins. will also distribute EGP 35 mn in free shares, raising its capital to EGP 285 mn.

10

Going Green

The challenges and solutions to making green hydrogen blending in Egypt a reality

Egypt is a strong candidate for implementing the technology of blending green hydrogen into its national natural gas grid. This is due to the large number of green hydrogen projects underway in the country and the capacity of its natural gas network, which spans nearly 100k km, supplying natural gas to over 14 mn homes, 25k commercial units, and 3k industrial units.

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In a part two to last week’s Hardhat looking at why Egypt is a good candidate for green hydrogen blending, we look at the challenges and solutions to its adoption here in Egypt by talking to industry insiders to get the inside scoop.

In case you're in need of a recap, green hydrogen blending involves mixing hydrogen produced from clean energy sources — think wind, power, and hydro — with natural gas in existing natural gas pipes. It presents an attractive way to diversify and greenify a country’s energy mix that is both gradual and with little up-front costs as it makes use of existing infrastructure. As a clean fuel source, the more green hydrogen sent through the pipes means less emissions as it reduces the amount of natural gas in the mix.

But before you get carried away, hydrogen blending is only a temporary transitional solution: Blending green hydrogen with natural gas is a temporary solution for Egypt's energy transition. In the long term, there is a need to develop a dedicated hydrogen transmission network. EU countries, for example, are working on creating hydrogen-dedicated pipelines alongside blending hydrogen into gas grids, investing heavily to avoid leaks due to hydrogen’s lower density compared to natural gas, industry insiders told us.

One thing going for us is the amount of green hydrogen projects in the pipeline: Since 2021, Egypt has signed around 32 MoUs for green hydrogen production, 15 of which have been converted into binding contracts with the Egyptian government and 17 lapsed due to a lack of commitment, Osama Fawzy, founder of hydrogen market intelligence platform H2lligence, told EnterpriseAM. Two additional agreements were signed on the sidelines of the European Investment Forum in Egypt, bringing the total to 17 binding agreements with an investment volume of USD 83 bn and a production capacity of 3 mn tons of green hydrogen.

But it’s far from guaranteed that a lot of the green hydrogen produced will go towards the local market: “Although 15 international companies committed to significant green hydrogen investments in Egypt under the framework agreements signed at COP27 in November 2022, they are not obliged to supply any portion of their production to the local market, which is a significant flaw in these contracts,” Fawzy told us. So even if Egypt achieves its target of capturing a 5-8% share of the global hydrogen market by 2040, there is a big question mark as to how much would be available for use by the country.

There’s certainly a demand from the country’s energy-intensive industries for blended green hydrogen — and even for factories powered solely by green hydrogen: Planned green hydrogen projects are distributed among many of Egypt’s main industrial zones and areas set for massive developments, opening up the possibility of these projects helping power nearby industries. There are planned green hydrogen projects in the vicinity of factories producing glass, ceramics, fertilizers, cement, and chemicals in East Port Said, Sokhna, Ras El Hikma, and more, which could be initially connected with connected by pipelines of 40-50 km in length until a dedicated hydrogen network is established, Fawzy said. The priority should be given to energy-intensive industries, followed by power generation plants, the commercial sector, and finally, the residential sector, which consumes less than 5% of the country's natural gas, Fawzy added.

Incentives would go a long way in ensuring the supply of green hydrogen to the domestic market: The government should incentivize the supply of green hydrogen to the domestic market by entering into long-term supply contracts with investors for the Ministry of Electricity to power its plants, according to Fawzy.

EU-centric financing is also skewing the industry towards export: Most of the green hydrogen production projects planned for Egypt are funded by the EU and financial institutions with the goal of exporting the entire output to Europe. This deprives projects aimed at supplying the local market from accessing funding, according to Fawzy. The solution lies in turning to regional financial institutions like the African Development Bank, Afreximbank, New Development Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

High costs remain, but are expected to decrease: The current cost of producing green hydrogen is three times higher than that of natural gas due to technological costs. However, this cost is expected to decrease to just twice the cost of natural gas by 2030, and cost competitiveness could be achieved between 2040 and 2050, according to the Boston Consulting Group.

But until prices are competitive, the state needs a carrot-and-stick to get local industry on board: The government can gradually compel energy-intensive industries to go green by using hydrogen blends in gas networks by imposing a carbon tax. While on the supply side, the state can encourage hydrogen producers to allocate a portion of production to the local market by offsetting shipping costs, Fawzy tells us. If Egypt can support the supply of hydrogen to energy-intensive industries and incentivize hydrogen developers in Egypt by giving them a premium over the world’s lowest production costs, it could secure a share of the production.

Thorough technical studies are also still needed before we can start blending green hydrogen into the network: The feasibility of hydrogen blending needs to be evaluated both technically and environmentally. One key issue is safety, as hydrogen blending can alter the pressure dynamics in the gas distribution system, which needs modifications to the existing network to ensure safety. Hydrogen can also cause damage to some metals — weakening pipelines and equipment — so these areas in the network need to be identified and replaced. Hydrogen also burns at a higher temperature than natural gas, potentially causing issues for end-users like factories with specialist equipment calibrated for unmixed natural gas, Fawzy told us.


Your top green economy stories for the week:

  • E-scooter startup Rabbit Mobility raised USD 1.3 mn in a new investment round led by VC firm 500 Global and Untapped Global. The funds will drive Rabbit's growth in Egypt and North Africa, expand its EV fleet, enhance user experience, and boost local micromobility access.
  • The Suez Canal Economic Zone will begin construction on fivelarge-scale green hydrogen projects within a year, set to be completed in four years.
  • Egypt will supply and install a 276.5 kw solar plant in Djibouti under a bilateral agreement signed between the two sides. The plant is part of efforts to support Djibouti’s sustainable development plans, and will be implemented alongside training programs to transfer local expertise to Djibouti.

2024

OCTOBER

20-22 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

21-25 October (Monday-Friday): The second iteration of the Global Forum for Population, Health, and Human Development.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

22-24 October (Tuesday-Thursday: 16th Brics Summit, Kazan, Russia

30 October (Wednesday): The CEO Women Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

7-9 November (Thursday-Saturday): FinExpo Conference and Exhibition, Cairo.

8-9 November (Friday-Saturday): Carerha Summit 2024, Cairo, Egypt.

10-12 November (Sunday-Tuesday): Falak Startups’ Fund Manager Masterclass, Cairo, Egypt.

11-15 November (Monday-Friday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit, Aswan, Egypt.

17-19 November (Sunday-Tuesday): Autotech Exhibition for Automotive Aftermarket & Feeder Industries, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): Annual Digital Nation Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

30 November (Saturday): Deadline to apply for renewable energy projects under the peer-to-peer (P2P) system.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

First week of November: Egypt-Turkey high-level trade consultation mechanism.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

7-10 April 2025 (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE.

May 2025: Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

March 2025: Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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