Good morning, folks. It’s a good news / bad news kind of morning as we prepare for what is expected to be a rainy day.
The good news: The Madbouly government is looking to boost local natural gas output by 1 bcf/d by the end of 2026 by offering international oil companies better terms in a bid to boost investment in the sector.
The bad: Fitch Solutions sees our current account deficit widening this fiscal year and the one after it, citing the impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict on our external position.
BUT FIRST- You might need to get on the phone to arrange childcare ASAP, with schools closed today and tomorrow in response to bad weather, the Education Ministry said in a statement. Putting our tinfoil hat on momentarily, the two-day closure, which many schools are choosing to replace with online lessons, serves as a trial run in the education sector for the state’s proposal to impose remote working one or two days a week across both the public and private sectors.
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EGP watch
The EGP depreciated against the greenback yesterday — the first day of trading following the Eid break — with the USD gaining EGP 0.34 against the national currency to sell at EGP 52.77 at the central bank and EGP 0.36 to sell at EGP 52.75 at CIB. The slide of the EGP can be explained by lingering investor concerns and foreign outflows from the secondary market, along with import financing and pending exit requests that had accumulated over the break, a banking source tells EnterpriseAM.
The movement follows interbank transactions reaching USD 1.6 bn last week — the lowest level since the start of the war, which can be attributed to significant inflows helping to reduce outward pressure, we were told.
Watch this space
AVIATION — The Iran war is driving tourists away from Eastern Mediterranean destinations like Egypt, with low-cost carrier EasyJet noting that travelers are opting for Western Mediterranean destinations like Spain over Egypt, Turkey, and Cyprus, Reuters reports, citing CEO Kenton Jarvis. The conflict is also threatening to drive up flight ticket prices to the region by late summer as airline fuel contracts expire, he added.
Why this matters: Egypt’s tourism sector is relying heavily on low-cost carriers to funnel tourists to South Sinai and the Red Sea to achieve its USD24.0 bn tourism target by the fiscal year 2028-29. If these carriers begin moving capacity away from the Eastern Mediterranean, Egypt risks losing many European tourists — and their spending.
CUSTOMS — Egypt slashes red tape for frustrated exporters. Egypt’s Finance Ministry has introduced temporary customs facilities to help exporters bring back shipments that can’t reach their final destinations due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader maritime instability in the Arabian Gulf. Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk confirmed that shipments forced to return without being unloaded — or those that never left territorial waters — will now be treated as “incomplete exports.”
The technical fix: These returned shipments are being reclassified as national goods that never officially left the country. Exporters are now exempt from the Advanced Cargo Information system for these goods, as they no longer carry foreign import status. The Customs Authority is also allowing these shipments to return to their original ports of entry and is canceling the impact of previously registered export data.
The fine print: These facilities apply to shipments returning within two months of their original export date. Clearing these returned shipments is now a top priority to reduce the financial burden on the private sector, Customs Authority head Ahmed Amwi said.
CUSTOMS — Egyptian expats now have a 120-day exemption from customs and fees associated with bringing in a phone from abroad — up from the previous 90-day grace period — effective 1 April, according to a statement. The move is designed to streamline connectivity for the Egyptian diaspora and enhance their access to digital services.
REMEMBER- The Madbouly government earlier this year ended the exemption that allowed us to bring in one phone from abroad without being charged customs or taxes every three years.
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From the debt markets
The Finance Ministry accepted bids for a three-year Treasury bond auction totaling only 1.6% of its EGP 25.0 bn target, according to data from the central bank. The Finance Ministry stood steady on a 21.22% yield — up only marginally from previous auctions — refusing to succumb to investor pressure for higher yields. The ministry also canceled a five-year EGP 10 bn Treasury bond auction after primary dealers requested yields reaching 30%.
Data point
USD 25.6 bn — that’s the value of remittances from Egyptians working abroad during the first seven months of FY 2025-26, up 28.4% from USD 20.0 bn in the same period last year, according to a statement from the Central Bank of Egypt. On a monthly basis, remittances rose 21.0% y-o-y to USD 3.5 bn in January 2026.
Why this matters:Remittances are now a key source of hard currency, with Suez Canal revenues still at a fraction of the levels they were at before Israel’s war on Gaza. While remittances have increased greatly since the float of the EGP, the jury is still out on what impact the war on Iran will have on flows — especially if the conflict continues for months.
PSA
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has ratified amendments to the Military Service Law that significantly hike fines for draft evaders, with the new rules set to take effect today. Under the changes, anyone who avoids conscription until the age of 30 faces a prison sentence and/or a fine of EGP 20k-100k, while those who fail to report for reserve duty face imprisonment and/or fines of EGP 10k-20k. The amendments also expand exemptions to include the eldest eligible brother or son of individuals martyred, missing, or permanently disabled due to military, police, or terrorist operations.
WEATHER- Expect to dust off your umbrella in Cairo today, with showers and breezy winds expected in the capital, along with a high of 19°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.
But our friends in Alexandria will be in store for a much wetter day, with heavy showers in the morning and cloudy skies forecast, along with a high of 15°C and a low of 11°C.
The big story abroad
In what would be a major escalation, the Pentagon is reportedly expected to dispatch thousands of soldiers to the region and potentially inside Iranian territory. The number of troops reportedly ranges from 2k to 3k soldiers from the US Army’s Airborne Division.
Meanwhile, Iran says Strait of Hormuz is open: Tehran said that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz “in coordination with Iranian authorities,” in a letter to International Maritime Organization members. That said, some 3.2k vessels remain stuck in the Arabian Gulf, seemingly unwilling to brave the waterway yet.
Mediators from Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan want to set up talks between the US and Iran by Thursday, though a diplomatic divide remains between Washington and Tehran, the Wall Street Journal reports.
And in the world of AI: ChatGPT maker OpenAI is shuttering its video generation offering Sora just six months after its debut in a bid to streamline its products. The company positioned the program as a means to create lifelike AI-generated videos within a community-focused environment. Available on the Apple App Store without charge, Sora has seen its popularity decline since its debut.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.
In today’s issue: We take a look at how Egypt’s real estate market has been cooling since even before the war on Iran and the reasons behind this.






