Egypt set to resume gas exports in January

Good morning, friends, and happy Thursday to you all. It’s another slow morning as we wrap up a particularly uneventful week (on the home front, at least). This morning, the eyes of much of the world will be locked onto Dubai — where climate negotiators are gathering for the opening day of COP28 — and Gaza, where fighting could resume in the coming hours, with Hamas and Israel seemingly no closer to agreeing an extension to the week-long truce. All that and more, below.

WATCH THIS SPACE- #1- United Bank stake sale could be announced this year: The United Bank is expected to pull back the curtain on its sale agreement in mid-December as it currently awaits mandatory tender offers (MTO) from the bidders, a source at the state-owned lender told Enterprise. Most of the potential buyers have completed due diligence on the bank, the source added.

United Bank is one of two state-owned banks in which EBRD is reportedly interested in taking a stake. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is reportedly looking to grab stakes in United Bank and Banque du Caire, two of the three banks — along with the Arab African International Bank — slated for the government privatization program.

WATCH THIS SPACE #2- El Sisi checks pulse of the economy amid fresh deval forecasts: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi chaired an economy-centered meeting that included Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Planning Minister Hala El Said, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla, International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat and General Intelligence Service Director Abbas Kamel according to an Ittihadiya statement. The meeting “followed up on the economic situation in light of regional and international developments,” the statement said.

What did they talk about? El Sisi “gave directives” for the ministers to “continue working on developing national economic programs and projects in a way that enhances the economy’s ability to face current challenges and ensures the protection of citizens from its negative effects,” the statement reads, without getting into further detail.

FLOAT WATCH- Capital Economics looks into its devaluation crystal ball: The much-anticipated float of the EGP will shortly follow the conclusion of the presidential election in December and will be accompanied by a 200 bps interest rate hike, according to an Arab World News Agency piece covering what a report by Capital Economics. Policymakers need to loosen their grip on the exchange rate soon to maintain the balance of payments and attract fresh capital inflows, the London-based economic research firm said.

Where’s the EGP headed against the greenback? Capital Economics isn’t offering a call. The EGP currently stands at anywhere between 48-53 to the USD in the parallel market depending on how much you’re buying, when, where, and from whom. The EGP is still at 30.95 to the USD per the official rate.

Calls by both EFG Hermes and BMI suggest we could see the EGP recover a bit from its current low — provided a float is successful and the market clears.BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, expects the EGP to weaken 45% against the USD by the end of 1Q2024, following the Central Bank of Egypt’s currency devaluation, which it says will take place in February. EFG Hermes lead MENA economist Mohamed Abu Basha sees the “EGP 40 mark [against the greenback] as being an eventual area of stability for the EGP when the FX market clears.”

ELECTION 2023- Presidential hopefuls pressed pause on their election campaigns yesterday ahead of Egyptian expats heading to the polls tomorrow through Sunday. On the ballot: Incumbent President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People Party’s Hazem Omar.

Polls open here at home on 10-12 December. First-round results are due on 18 December and a runoff, if necessary, will take place in early January 2024.

PSA #1- El Gouna Film Festival is back on the calendar after being postponed from October in the wake of the war on Gaza. The rescheduled festival runs from 14 -21 December and will include a special program dedicated to Palestinian cinema, in collaboration with the Palestine Film Institute.

PSA#2- - Metro commuters, you can stay out late on Thursdays. The Cairo Metro Line 3 will extend operating hours to 1 am on Thursdays, line operator RATP Dev Mobility Cairo said yesterday. The extended hours start today for a one-month trial period.

** DO US A FAVOUR? Did this morning’s email land in your tabs? Please drag us to your inbox — it goes a long way toward making sure Enterprise makes it into everyone’s email inbox.

TOMORROW IS A NEW MONTH- As we near the end of the year — here are the key news triggers on which to keep your eyes as we head into December:

PMI: S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for November next Tuesday, 5 December.
Foreign reserves: The central bank should release November’s foreign reserves figures next week.
Inflation: Capmas and the CBE will publish the latest inflation data on Sunday, 10 December.
Interest rates: The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will gather to discuss interest rates on Thursday, 21 December.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s finally COP28 o’clock: Dubai might seem a bit busier than usual this morning as a who's who of climate experts, NGOs, and journalists land in the emirate for two weeks of climate talks at COP28. World leaders will make their appearance for two days on Friday and Saturday. We’ll be keeping you up-to-date with events on the ground through to 12 December. Check out the full agenda for the summit here.

Want to go deeper? Enterprise Climate has got your back.

#2- To cut or not to cut, OPEC+ edition: OPEC+ member states are meeting today to discuss how the cartel of oil-producing nations will respond to falling oil prices, decide on next year’s production targets, and make a decision on whether to prolong production cuts.

The experts are still banking on a cut: “With fundamentals softening and market sentiment bearish, OPEC+ may need to announce another formal cut,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a report picked up by Bloomberg.

Crude prices on both sides of the Atlantic have been whipsawing all week long after the meeting to talk about output levels was postponed to today from Sunday to give the cartel time to get on the same page. Saudi and Russia want cuts, while Angola and Nigeria want to pump more in 2024.

It doesn’t look like another delay to the meeting is in the cards despite chatter earlier this week that could be the case. Reports out overnight all talk about the depth of possible cuts (here and here), not about postponing the virtual meeting.

MEANWHILE- There’s chatter ahead of the meeting that Saudi Aramco could drop the price to Asia of its flagship Arab Light grade of crude as it looks to fend off less-costly US and European offerings, Bloomberg reports.

#3- We could get a better idea about the trajectory of interest rates in the US and Europe today when fresh inflation figures land. Euro area figures and the US personal consumption expenditures price index are expected to show inflation slowing to its weakest rate since early 2021 — forecasts which if correct will further stoke optimism that rates on both sides of the Atlantic have reached their peak. Bloomberg has more.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

#1- Kissinger passes away, aged 100: Henry Kissinger, one of the most influentialdiplomats of the 20th century, has passed away at the age of 100, his consultancy said early this morning. A polarizing figure, the former US secretary of state is praised by his supporters for negotiating an end to the Vietnam War, ushering in warmer relations with the Soviet Union and China, and holding the Middle East together in the wake of the 1973 war. Among his critics, the Harvard University professor will be remembered for the brutal bombing of Cambodia and Laos, alleged complicity in Indonesia’s genocidal campaign in East Timor, and backing of General Augusto Pinochet’s seizure of power in Chile. (Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Washin gton Post | Wall Street Journal)

#2- Time is running out to extend the ceasefire in Gaza: With less than two hours before the temporary truce between Hamas and Israel expires, there is still little sign of an agreement over how to extend it into a seventh day. Both sides have expressed willingness to continue to prolong the ceasefire and continue releasing hostages, though who, how many, and for how long are key sticking points that remain unresolved by the Egypt- and Qatar-mediated discussions. We have more in this morning’s news well, below.

#3- Kuwait’s emir hospitalized: Kuwait’s ruling emir Sheikh Nawaf Al Ahmad Al Sabah was hospitalized yesterday due to an unspecified “emergency health problem.” The emir is now in stable condition.Sheikh Nawaf is 86 years old. (Associated Press | Reuters)

#4- Amazon ramps up its AI product line with a new chatbot: On the heels of last week’s OpenAI hysteria, Amazon is rolling out its generative AI tool for business — dubbed Amazon Q. The chatbot can be connected to over 40 enterprise systems and contacted via communication apps like Slack. A two-day preview version of the tool is now available, after which companies will have the choice between two versions, one tailored for business users and one tailored for IT workers. (CNBC | Bloomberg)

Elsewhere in the world of AI- AI research lab Google DeepMind used AI to identify the compound structure of over 2 mn new materials, 380k of which could soon be made in the real world, it said in a statement yesterday. The new materials can be used to develop stronger EV batteries, superconductors, and powering supercomputers.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

The Egypt Defense Expo (EDEX) will be firing off from 4 to 7 December: Around 35k defense and security professionals from across the world will land down in Cairo early next month for the biennial event at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. You can register to attend here.

HELP GAZA-

Want to support relief efforts in Gaza, but don’t know how? We’ve got you. More than 1 mn people in Gaza have been thrown from their homes and every human being there lacks access to food, water, and fuel amid the most intense bombardment any population has endured this century.

The folks at Talabat are processing donations for a range of Gaza relief appeals by charities including the Egyptian Food Bank and Misr El Kheir. Pay in EGP using your credit card.

Or check out our list of charities to which you can make direct donations via bank deposit and / or Fawry.

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Egypt to resume LNG exports in January

We’ll ring in the new year with the resumption of LNG exports: Egypt is set to resume LNG exports in January after half a year with virtually no gas leaving our shores, Al Arabiya reported yesterday, citing an Oil Ministry official. The government hopes to export as much as 1 bn cubic feet of gas per day from the beginning of next year, according to the official.

Remember: LNG exports have been on hold since the first half of the year due to an unusually long summer heatwave, declining local production, and disruption caused by the war in Gaza. We’ve been sitting tight awaiting the resumption on exports following reports that an LNG vessel has arrived at a liquefaction plant in Idku a week ago

Thank the winter season and the resumption of Israeli gas imports:

Local demand is dropping significantly with the arrival of cooler weather: One unnamed source familiar with the situation told the news outlet that consumption will fall to 6 bn cf/d in January, down from 7 bn cf/d in the summer months.
Imports of Israeli gas are back to normal: Egypt is now importing 800 mn cubic feet of Israeli gas per day after Chevron restarted production at the Tamar gas field and reopened the EMG pipeline between Egypt and Israel.

It hasn’t been a great 2023 for LNG exports: Egypt has exported just 3.38 mn metric tons of LNG so far this year, down from 7.1 mn tons during the whole of 2022. The country has capacity to export more than 12 mn tons a year via its two liquefaction plants at Damietta and Idku.

How much gas is Egypt producing? Egypt is currently producing between 5.9-6.1 bn cf/d, slightly below the 6.2 bn cf/d during FY 2022-23.

DANA GAS TO GET DRILLING-
Emirati firm Dana Gas is planning to invest USD 43 mn in Egypt next year, as part of an “intensive” natural gas drilling program, the Oil Ministry said yesterday. The company plans to drill 11 development wells and three exploratory wells next year, with the aim of increasing production by some 30 mn cubic feet per day.

FYI- The company currently operates 14 development leases onshore in the Nile Delta, producing 125 mn cf/d.

Pending parliamentary approval: The firm is awaiting the greenlight from the House to start the drilling work, which will happen under an exploration agreement with state-owned EGAS.

More to come? The company had previously said that it wants to invest USD 100 mn in Egypt over the next two years.

Egypt court rules in favor of Centamin, ending 12-year legal dispute

The end of a decade-old legal battle: The Egyptian Supreme Administrative Court (SAC) rejected a 2011 legal challenge against LSE-listed gold miner Centamin’s Sukari mine concession, the company said in a disclosure on the exchange.

The lawsuit summed up: A third-party filed a lawsuit against Centamin in 2011, challenging the validity of the Sukari’s exploitation lease between the Egyptian government, Centamin's Egyptian subsidiary Pharaoh Gold Mines (PGM), and the Egyptian Mineral Resource Authority (EMRA). A year later, the Supreme Administrative Court found that even though the agreement itself was valid, EMRA and PGM hadn’t received the necessary approvals for the exploitation lease. The defendant appealed the lawsuit, but the final decision has been pending the Supreme Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Appeals Against State Contracts Act, which upheld the legislation earlier this year.

The rationale: The court rejected the case in its entirety, seeing as the claimant “had no capacity to bring the claim,” as he was not part of the Sukari mine concession agreement. Third-party lawsuits against state-investor contracts are not possible under the Appeals Against State Contracts Act, a 2014 bill that prevents third-parties from mounting legal challenges against contracts signed between the government and investors.

That’s final: “The claimant has no right to appeal and today's judgment is final and therefore brings this long-running litigation to a close,” the company said.

Business as usual at Sukari: Operations at the Sukari Gold Mine were not disrupted during the duration of the dispute.

CI Capital, Orascom Construction report 9M 2023 earnings

CI Capital’s net income climbed 54% y-o-y to reach EGP 747 mn in 9M 2023, driven by a strong growth across its investment bank and NBFS platforms, according to their latest earnings release (pdf). The company’s topline rose 87% y-o-y to EGP 4.7 bn in 9M 2023, while its loan portfolio expanded by 32% y-o-y to EGP 21 bn.

Solid bottomline performance among its NBFS: Net income for its leasing arm, Corplease, grew 53% y-o-y to reach EGP 415 mn in 9M 2023, while that of its microfinance arm Reefy rose by 31% y-o-y to EGP 317 mn in the same period.

The group’s investment bank recorded an 80% growth in revenues to EGP 826 mn in 9M 2023, thanks to a strong turnout from its brokerage, asset management and investment banking divisions.

Cautious optimism: “CI Capital concluded the first nine months of the year as Egypt’s largest NBFS platform, leading asset manager by size and performance, and leading debt and equity advisory house,” said CEO Hesham Gohar. “We continue to deploy our resources efficiently to navigate the challenges in the markets in which we operate, in addition to recent regional geo-political instability, while remaining cautiously optimistic about the future.”

ORASCOM CONSTRUCTION INCOME DOUBLES DURING 9M 2023-

OC net income doubles in 9M 2023: Orascom Construction’s (OC) net income doubled y-o-y to USD 114.8 mn during the first nine months of the year, according to its latest earnings release (pdf). This came despite a 23% y-o-y decrease in revenues, which recorded USD 2.4 bn for 9M 2023, which the company attributed to the devaluation of the EGP.

A weaker 3Q performance: The company’s revenues dipped 30% y-o-y during 3Q 2023 to record USD 802 mn, which resulted in a 33% y-o-y drop in net income to USD 16 mn for the same period.

It’s been a big year for backlogs: OC’s consolidated backlog was up 14% y-o-y to USD 7 bn during the period between January and September 2023, while new awards increased 26% y-o-y during 9M 2023 and 234% y-o-y during 3Q 2023. OC’s pro forma backlog including its 50% share in Belgium-based subsidiary BESIX also rose by 12% y-o-y to USD 9.8 bn in 9M 2023. Egypt accounted for 65% of the company’s backlog, followed by the USA (23%), and the UAE (9%).

Looking ahead: The company’s backlog figures are calculated based on the official exchange rate. Should the EGP fall by 20% against the USD, the company’s 9M 2023 backlog figures would be c.3% lower (USD 195 mn), the company said. The currency is expected to decline by at least 20% against the greenback when the central bank goes ahead with its widely anticipated devaluation in the coming weeks.

SAIB appoints Afdal Naguib to fill in for El Kholy

SAIB replaces El Kholy: SAIB Bank has tapped Afdal El Sayed Naguib to lead the bank on an interim basis after Tarek El Kholy was made deputy governor of the Central Bank of Egypt, the bank said in an EGX disclosure (pdf). Naguib will have the same authority as a chairman and managing director without the title — he has been appointed the bank’s “president of the executives,” until the bank approves its new board in March 2024.

Also from the bank: The bank’s board accepted El Kholy’s resignation and appointed non-executive board member Fahmy Hanna (bio) as non-executive chairman until the new board is sworn in.

Gaza ceasefire set to expire this morning, with Hamas, Israel no closer to an agreement

The truce in Gaza will expire in one hour: There remains little sign of an agreement between Hamas and Israel to extend the temporary ceasefire into a second week, despite Egyptian, Qatari and US negotiators pushing hard for a longer truce. The two sides are reportedly unable to agree on which hostages should be released, how many should be freed, and how long the truce should remain in effect for. The absence of an agreement will mean that Israel will likely resume its bombing campaign and ground offensive in Gaza in the coming hours.

The latest: Israel’s war cabinet was reported to be meeting in the early hours of this morning to discuss options, ahead of a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who will reportedly press officials to agree to extend the truce.

On the final day of the ceasefire: Hamas freed 16 hostages in exchange for the release of another 30 Palestinians yesterday. Sixty Israelis, 210 Palestinians, and 21 foreign nationals have been released since the truce began on Friday. More than 40 of the hostages taken from Israel into Gaza are reported to not currently be held by Hamas, but by other groups or individuals.

Internal Israeli pressure to resume fighting: As yesterday’s hostages were released and talk emerged of male hostages being released in the next swap, far-right ministers in the Israeli cabinet warned Netanyahu that his coalition government would be jeopardized if he attempted a more ambitious prisoner swap. A few days prior, Netanyahu reportedly told Biden that the Israeli public would not accept a halt to the military operation in response to pressure from the US president to reduce the intensity of its air campaign in south Gaza.

Three hostages in Gaza may have been killed in an Israeli airstrike: The youngest hostage, a 10-month-old baby, was killed along with his brother and mother during an Israeli airstrike, Hamas claimed yesterday. The IDF said yesterday that it was assessing the claim.

WAR ECONOMICS- Saudi Arabia is offering investment if Iran reels in its proxies: Saudi Arabia has proposed deepening its ties with Iran and making investments in exchange for the country keeping its regional proxies out of the Israel-Gaza war, writes Bloomberg, citing Arab and Western officials close to the matter. The kingdom has reportedly been trying to limit Iran’s involvement in the war since the beginning of the conflict to prevent Iran-aligned armed groups in Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen from turning the war into a regional conflict, according to the outlet.

Remember: Saudi Arabia and Iran this year agreed to restore full diplomatic relations for the first time in almost a decade in a surprise China-brokered pact.

AID- Jordan is hosting a meeting today to coordinate humanitarian aid in Gaza.

Magdi Yacoub Foundation, EGF, and aiBank to offer cardiac care training for 70 nurses

Magdi Yacoub Foundation to upskill 70 nurses in cardiac care: The Magdi Yacoub Heart Foundation (MYF) has teamed up with EFG Foundation for Social Development and the aiBANK Foundation for Community Development to train 70 nurses in cardiovascular care, according to a statement (pdf). The fellowship program will be offered by the MYF’s Aswan Heart Center (AHC) and most of the trainees will be offered full-time positions at the center upon completion of the program.

Gaza continued to dominate the airwaves last night as the truce neared its final hours. Palestinian Health Minister Mai El Kaila was in the Masaa DMC studio to share the latest updates on the humanitarian situation on the ground. Around 60% of infrastructure has been destroyed, including 280k housing units having suffered damage, whilst 26 of a total 35 hospitals stopped functioning, she told show host Eman El Hosary (watch, runtime: 6:18). We have more on the story above, in War Watch.

Israeli ships are welcome to re-route, says Moussa: The war on Gaza has forced other regional actors such as the Houthis to intervene, seizing an Israeli-linked ship off the coast of Yemen this week, Ahmed Moussa said on Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 2:39). Israel could potentially halt its vessels traveling through the Suez Canal and instead travel southwards around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, to which Moussa responded: “We don’t want you to cross the Suez Canal, nor our land in general.”

Truce extension will rely on how many women and children hostages are still held by Hamas: Al Hayah Al Youm’s Mohamed Sherdy talked to the head of the State Information Service, Diaa Rashwan, about the potential outcomes of the talks that were ongoing last night to extend the ceasefire by another two days (watch, runtime: 16:46). A truce extension is a “very likely” possibility, but reaching an agreement on the extension and its duration “depends on the number of children and women detained by Hamas,” he said.

Sugar price cap only a temporary solution, says MP: Ahmed Moussa invited House Local Administration Committee chairman Ahmad El Segini onto Alaa Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 3:39) to discuss parliament’s recent meeting to address the spiraling sugar prices. When asked about the idea of a price cap, El Segini replied that resorting to a price cap would only lead to the development of a black market, but it could be enforced “as a temporary measure.” What is more important, he emphasized, was strengthening the role of regulatory bodies to better control the situation.

Remember: A sugar supply gap has pushed prices to soar up to EGP 50 per kilo this week and pushed the Supply Ministry to consider introducing sugar price controls and tap into its reserves to help fill the gap. Sugar was trading at EGP 42 per kilo yesterday.

Gaza war continues to push Egypt into the global news cycle

With Israel’s war on Gaza still dominating headlines the world over,the global press has been looking at how the conflict is affecting our tourism industry and stirring anger and dissent among our population. Bloomberg took a look at Tourism Minister Ahmed Issa’s plans to continue full steam ahead with our tourism targets and hotel building campaign in spite of the war on our border. Meanwhile, the Guardian has an opinion piece by academic Reem Abou El Fadl about how the “unfolding genocide in Gaza” has awakened a dissenting spirit among Egyptians.

We’re in for more support from the AfDB. PLUS: News from EEHC, Techno Frame, Agriculture Ministry

DEVELOPMENT FINANCE-

A new support package from the AfDB: The African Development Bank (AfDB) has signed off on a USD 131 mn support package for Egypt that will “promote private-sector development, support economic diversification and green transition,” the lender said this week. The program has a wide range of targets, including increasing private investment, raising the amount of state land available to renewable energy projects, boosting the value of manufacturing, and reducing the time taken to process business licenses. No details of how the program will be carried out or how the finance will be used were provided.

ENERGY-

That’s a wrap on EEHC’s solar tender: Three consortiums have submitted financial and technical bids in response to the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company’s (EEHC) tender to establish five concentrated solar power (CSP) stations in the North Coast to power desalination plants, Al Mal reported. The three consortiums include an alliance between Egypt's Platform and an unnamed Chinese company, Smart Engineering Solutions (SES) and Germany’s Frenell, and Orascom Construction and an unnamed foreign partner. The company will evaluate the bids over the coming two months before announcing the tender winner.

About the project: The plants will power desalination plants on the north coast and will have a combined capacity of 250 MW, helping desalinate over 400k cubic meters of water per day. The plants are expected to require USD 270 mn of investment and will be established under 25-year build-own-operate contracts.

A little leeway: The financial offers submitted can be revisited and adjusted in response to exchange rate fluctuations and changes in raw material prices.

DIVESTMENT-

South African fund offloads a portion of its stake in Macro Group: South Africa’s Coronation Africa Frontiers Fund has sold a 3.6% stake in Macro Group for EGP 55 mn — EGP 2.63 a share — reducing its ownership in the cosmeceuticals player to 1.9%, according to a filing to the EGX (pdf).

MANUFACTURING-

Techno Frame wants to set up a factory in Tenth of Ramadan City: Egyptian-Saudi aluminum manufacturer Techno Frame is planning to establish an EGP 200 mn factory in the Tenth of Ramadan City, CEO Ahmed Hamdy told Al Borsa. The factory will produce aluminum, glass and steel and have an annual production capacity of 50k sqm. Construction is expected to finish in 4Q 2024.

CLIMATE-

We’re documenting the carbon footprint of our crop production: The Agriculture Ministry has begun documenting the carbon footprint of its crop production in a new project supported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAO Representative in Egypt Nasr Al Din Haj Al Amin told Attaqa. The project — funded by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the Global Environment Fund — will assess the size of the emissions for each step of the production process including irrigation, fertilization, and harvest. The move is part of larger efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change in Egypt, Al Amin added.

What gives? Continuing cost pressures for businesses alongside rising food and energy pricesfor consumers could drive a tighter monetary policy than is currently projected for 2024, according to the report. Rising geopolitical tensions if the war in Gaza were to persist or become a wider conflict are also a concern, the OECD said.

Bullish market behavior is saying something else: The Bloomberg US Aggregate bond index has risen to 4.3% so far this month, putting bonds on track for their best monthly performance since 1985, as traders hedge their calls that the Federal Reserve has finally stopped raising interest rates. Markets picked up further speed this week after a Fed official h inted at the possibility of rate cuts in the coming months, sending the USD to its lowest level in three months.

Refresher: The Fed embarked on an aggressive monetary tightening policy in March 2022 in the wake of soaring inflation triggered by the Ukraine war. Its recent decision to hold rates steady at a 22-year high at 5.25-5.5% for the second consecutive month after encouraging inflationary data had pundits saying the Fed might have taken rates as far as it is willing.

Too much monetary tightening could risk an economic downturn, with a “more severe slowdown in spending, rising unemployment and higher bankruptcies,” the report warns.

And the US economy certainly seems to be in good shape, persistent hand-wringing about a recession notwithstanding: US GDP grew at a 5.2% clip in 3Q, slightly higher than the 5% analysts penciled in, despite persisting concerns about the possibility of a recession, Reuters and CNBC reported overnight.

The OECD sees global GDP growth slowing to 2.7% in 2024, down from the organization’s previous 2024 projection of 2.9%. G20 countries are expected to take a hit, with US growth in particular falling from 2.4% this year to 1.5% in 2024. That would present a challenge to policymakers who have been aiming for a “soft landing.”

But 2025 could be better, the group says, saying falling inflation and real income growth could see global output grow at a 3% clip in 2025.

On interest rates, a higher-for-longer approach would take a toll on emerging markets:Restrictive monetary policy would put pressure on debt repayments for emerging-market and developing countries with large stocks of FX debt, the OECD warned.

That’s a risk for us: Egypt’s external debt accounted for 41.8% of its GDP in 2023, and we’re due to cough up some USD 29 bn next year. With tighter rates translating to a stronger USD, a hawkish Fed would see imports even more expensive here at the same time as we look at the prospect of the EGP floating after December’s presidential poll.

Dubai Taxi’s USD 315 mn IPO got USD 41 bn in orders: Dubai Taxi received AED 150 bn (USD 41 bn) in orders for its AED 1.2 bn (USD 315 mn) initial public offering, with orders from investors covering the transaction 130x, according to a statement (pdf) from the company. The appetite came from both institutional and individual investors, it said.

The transaction: The Dubai government is selling a 25% stake at AED 1.85 per share and has priced the offering at the top of the range it had initially offered on the back of strong demand, valuing the company at AED 4.6 bn (c. USD 1.26 bn).

More retail shares will be on offer after global coordinators retail tranche to 12% of the offering from 10% originally.

ADVISORS- Rothschild & Co. Middle East is serving as the financial advisor. CitiGroup, Merrill Lynch and Emirates NBD are global coordinators and joint bookrunners. Our friends at EFG Hermes and FAB are also bookrunners on the transaction.

EGX30	24,759	-1.4% (YTD: +69.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
Tadawul	11,103	0.0% (YTD: +6.0%)
ADX	9,553	+0.1% (YTD: -6.4%)
DFM	4,000	-0.2% (YTD: +19.9%)
S&P 500	4,551	-0.1% (YTD: +18.5%)
FTSE 100	7,423	-0.4% (YTD: -0.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,371	+0.5% (YTD: +15.2%)
Brent crude	USD 82.90	+1.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.80	-1.2%
Gold	USD 2,067	+0.3%
BTC	USD 37,717	-0.7% (YTD: +128.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.5 bn (89.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 69.6% YTD.

In the green: GB Corp (+8.1%), AMOC (+3.4%) and Eastern Company (+2.5%).

In the red: Belton Financial Holding (-5.1%), Orascom Construction (-5.0%) and Palm Hills Development (-5.0%).

My Morning Routine: Ayman Essam, director of legal and external affairs at Vodafone Egypt

Ayman Essam, director of legal and external affairs at Vodafone Egypt: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is Ayman Essam (LinkedIn), director of legal and external affairs at telecoms giant Vodafone Egypt. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

I introduce myself as a leadership professional and a big time extrovert. I recharge through my interactions with people and I am a proud father. I’m also a notorious risk-taker, so a huge part of my leadership identity is to surround myself with people who are risk-averse to help me stay grounded and to guide me into taking only the most calculated of risks. Another thing about me is that I am a Neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) certified practitioner and coach — a course that has changed my life.

My mornings start with reading Enterprise at 6:30 am, in both English and Arabic,to make sure I’m getting all the news in the most proper terminologies across both languages. I am a lawyer by education, which makes me an old-hand at quick reading. Then, I dedicate about 30 to 40 minutes of my morning to self-sharpening, so I watch a TED Talk, or take a Linkedin course, or simply catch up on some reading before I check my schedule for the day.

I navigate through a wide spectrum of responsibilities as the director of legal and external affairs at Vodafone. My day-to-day responsibilities include overlooking and managing compliance, regulatory affairs, government relations, media relations, corporate information security, and fraud. And I’m also the official spokesperson of Vodafone Egypt, so I speak on the behalf of the company with a wide-range of people and entities.

Before I head to the office, my team is already assigned their tasks for the day. From 8:30 to 9:00 am, my team’s group chat is bustling with texts on who’s doing what today. I like to run my team on a very casual basis. I go to the office twice a week, strictly Mondays and Tuesdays for back-to-back meetings. So, I prefer to structure my days. I usually return all my calls, and WhatsApp messages either in between meetings, breaks or when I’m driving home from work.

I dedicate two days of the workweek for external visits. I try to make them on Sundays and Wednesdays, but it's not always easy to schedule. Ideally, I keep my media interviews at night and meet up with government officials in the mornings. I usually opt for coffee and dinner meet-ups whenever it's possible.

I think AI is going to impose a lot of changes to the telecoms industry. We already like to think of ourselves as a tech rather than a telecoms company. Stakeholder expectations of the telecoms industry’s adoption of A.I are definitely rising at an unprecedented rate. People expect 5G, high-speed, and premium network connectivity at all times. Thankfully, our industry is really attractive to content creators, fintechs, and governments looking to digitize, which gives us the leverage to grow across sectors. We call telecoms the sector of sectors, and it has become a crucial infrastructure for everything else to operate.

Imagine your life without connectivity, it's miserable. What Vodafone is essentially trying to do is provide a better life for our customers through basic connectivity. This goes beyond just people. We’ve made remarkable advancements in connecting rural and urban regions, contributing to the environment, and working towards women inclusivity. This is in addition to our fintech developments like Vodafone cash, which has become indispensable for many. We make people’s and businesses’ lives easier.

Being in service drives my work and personal life, it’s the one constant in my day. I try to be as useful as I can to as many people as I can, both professionally and personally. It's the legacy I'd like to leave behind. I am also primarily driven by the amount of value certain things take over other things, and so I tend to dedicate my time to the things I value most. It is always a trade-off.

I’m honestly not the best at balancing out the work–life ratio. I tend to work at personal times and vice-versa, it’s not easy for me to switch off and completely detach these two parts of my life. But I try to spend as much quality time as I can with the people who matter.

But, I have designated time slots for all my non-work related meetups. I have a fixed time slot to meet my parents, family, catch up with friends, and a designated slot to give back to the community. Every Monday evening, I’m at the Rotary Club in Zamalek. I also set an alarm that goes off everyday at 5 pm to remind me of who I need to see tonight. Plus, I keep a list of the people I haven't seen in a while, which pops up every Saturday, to remind me to try and schedule something soon.

I have been living by the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey: I think everyone should read it. My other book recommendations would be The Power of Vulnerability by Brene Brown, and Letting Go: The Pathway of Surrender by David R. Hawkins.

‘Be yourself’ is the best piece of advice I’ve ever received, and it was from a former boss. He said it to me so many times in so many ways, and this has pushed me to genuinely embrace all the versions of myself. What you see is what you get.

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

30 November (Thursday): OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting takes place virtually.

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

14 December (Thursday): Bidding deadline for five gold mine concessions in the Eastern Desert.

14-21 December (Thursday-Thursday): El Gouna Film Festival.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
Gov’t expects to finalize stake sale for military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya.
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm
FRA to announce chosen consortium for credit rating license
Kenyan trade conference in Egypt.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

Q1 2024: Opening of the new developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2024

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

The Grand Egyptian Museum could be officially open to visitors some time between February and May 2024 .

Q1 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

JANUARY

1 January (Monday): Egypt to join the Brics.

7 January (Sunday): Coptic Christmas.

17 January (Wednesday): A delegation of Egyptian companies to visit Istanbul.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution day.

FEBRUARY

11 February (Sunday): The deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Program

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (TBC).

29 May (Wednesday): Chicago Booth Executive Program

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

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