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Tuesday, 7 Apr 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Budget Watch
Capital Markets
Banking
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar

Egypt looks west for Libyan oil

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Today at a glance

1

Big Story Today

Egypt secures Libyan crude to compensate for Hormuz Strait closure disruptions.
2

Capital markets

Iran war triggers first major crack in 15-month EGX bull run.
3

Banking

The end of easy credit as banks stress test for a weaker EGP.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

East Port Said port receives MV Paroship, the largest of its kind to dock at Egyptian terminals.
5

BUDGET WATCH

Gov’t expects financing gap to shrink to EGP 2.7 tn in FY 2026-27 despite regional volatility.
6

Also on our Radar

Bokra debuts Shakmagia gold fund this month.
7

PANET FINANCE

Global private equity activity slows down on AI sentiment shift, geopolitical tensions.
8

Going Green

Can Shams Masr solve our energy challenges?

Tuesday, 7 Apr 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Budget Watch
Capital Markets
Banking
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The largest dry bulk vessel anchors in East Port Said port

Good morning, all, and happy hump day. We have another packed issue for you this morning, led by the government’s latest efforts to ensure the oil keeps flowing — we’re buying up 3% of Libya’s monthly oil production.

Also in today’s issue: The Madbouly government sees our financing gap shrinking to EGP 2.7 tn next fiscal year; the EGX ended the first quarter of the year up despite an almost 8% dip in March; and the EGP 2 coin will soon hit the market.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — Could the IMF help us weather the impact of the war in the Gulf? The IMF may top up existing lending programs to support a wave of countries seeking emergency aid to weather the energy crisis triggered by the US-Iran war, the Fund’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters. And while she didn’t name any of the nations that “asked for funding help,” we already knew that the Madbouly government has been in talks with the IMF, among other international financial institutions, for additional concessional financing to help plug the war-triggered financing gap.

Watch this space: Requests for emergency financing will be discussed during the IMF and World Bank’s annual spring meetings, which will kick off on Monday, 13 April.

The Fund has been assessing the impact of the war on countries with existing loan programs since the war first broke out, IMF Arab States and Maldives Executive Director and former Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told EnterpriseAM last month. The lender’s response will be based on the scale and length of the shock.

LOGISTICS — East Port Said port received the largest dry bulk vessel ever to berth at an Egyptian port, according to a statement by the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The MV Paroship vessel arrived at the Sky Ports multipurpose terminal carrying around 180k tons of cargo from Mauritania, compared to the roughly 165k tons carried by the largest capesize vessel previously received there.

Why it matters: The vessel’s arrival signals that the port is pushing beyond its container-hub profile and into heavier bulk handling. In an effort to position itself as a regional trade and logistics hub, Egypt is upgrading its port infrastructure to receive more types of vessels and greater quantities of cargo.

***

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An EGP 2 coin will soon be put into circulation, the Egyptian Mint Authority announced yesterday. The move comes as part of the Finance Ministry’s efforts to address the shortage of change.

EGP 1 coins are also being minted using a lower-cost alloy so as to avoid the coin’s monetary value falling below the material value of the metal it contains. With the EGP depreciating against the greenback and the price of various metals rising in the wake of the war on Iran, the fear is that if this trend continues, individuals could melt and sell the metal with a return.

The nationwide issue of never having enough change is also being addressed at public transport hubs, with a digital payment system being rolled out in addition to easier ways to top up and use smart travel cards to reduce the use of coins, central bank officials said.

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Data point

450 — the number of foreign companies that have applied to set up operations in Egypt since March, according to a cabinet statement. The influx comes despite regional tensions, as escalating conflict continues to rattle investor confidence throughout the region.

PSAs-

#1- We’re getting a midweek break next week: The public and private sectors are getting Monday, 13 April off for Sham El Nessim, according to a statement from the cabinet. Operating hours for commercial venues will be extended from 9pm to 11pm between Friday, 10 April, and Monday, 13 April for the occasion. We’ll be on the lookout for similar statements from the EGX and the central bank.

#2- You can now pay mobile phone customs fees in installments via Valu, the Egyptian Customs Authority and the National Telecom Regulatory Authority (NTRA) said in a statement. The grace period to settle customs dues has also been extended to 120 days after the device’s activation, giving travelers four months to navigate the payment process before any regulatory action.

WEATHER- Little chance of light showers is expected over Cairo today, with a high of 24°C and a low of 14°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Possible intermittent showers are also expected in Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 12°C.

The big story abroad

US-Iran talks haven’t made much headway yet. US President Donald Trump shut down Iran’s 45-day ceasefire proposal, which he criticised for being “not good enough.” Trump warned that every bridge in Iran could be destroyed if a resolution — that reopens the Strait of Hormuz — was not reached by later today. “The entire country can be taken out in one night,” Trump said during a news conference yesterday.

Tehran hit back with a ten-point proposal, which reportedly demands assurances that Iran would not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the removal of all sanctions, two senior Iranian officials told the New York Times.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance: Global investment bank Goldman Sachs said that the recent exodus of retail investors from private credit has created an opportune moment to invest in the asset class. The firm characterized the trend as a “meaningful shift” which will result in heavier reliance on institutional investors.

Also in the news orbit is Nasa’s latest mission, Artemis II, which has officially reached thefarthest point in space ever travelled by humans. Launched earlier this week, the mission took four astronauts around the far side of the moon and they’re now on their way back to Earth.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at how the Shams Misr initiative aims to drive a solar boom.

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This Easter, nothing ends early. It simply unfolds.

From sunlit days to evenings that carry on, Somabay becomes a place where every moment finds its rhythm.

2

The Big Story Today

We’re looking west for Libyan oil

The Madbouly government has agreed to purchase 3% of Libya’s monthly oil output at international prices, with Libya agreeing to flexible payment terms, covering between 1 mn and 1.2 mn barrels per month, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. Supplies are expected from eastern fields including Messla, Zella, and Nafoora — all within reach of lower-cost transport.

Why it matters: The government is now looking westward to offset the halt in Kuwaiti supplies that are caught in the crossfire of the war on Iran. Libyan crude offers a good substitution as it is similar in quality to Egypt’s Western Desert output, which means refineries in Amreya can process the barrels efficiently, Professor of Petroleum and Energy Engineering Gamal Al Qalyoubi tells us. With this imported crude being sourced from border areas, it will activate overland transport routes — reducing reliance on expensive maritime shipping, and limiting exposure to supply-chain disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict.

So why wasn’t the choice made earlier? Limited reliance in the past came down to Libya’s political and security conditions, Al Qalyoubi explains.

DATA POINT- Libya’s output is running at a decade high, with production rising to around 1.4 mn barrels per day, the highest level in more than 10 years, equal to some 42.9 mn barrels per month.

IN CONTEXT- Egypt-Libya ties are deepening again recently, with talks resuming in January to expand the electricity interconnection line, from 150 MW to 2 GW, aimed at easing chronic shortages in eastern Libya, a senior government official told us. Our Western neighbour is also turning Al Jawf Dry Port southwest Libya into the cornerstone of a joint freezone and a launchpad for Egyptian exports to Libya, and the wider intra-African trade.

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3

BUDGET WATCH

Gov’t sees financing gap shrinking to EGP 2.7 tn

(EA>SM>YS>MA>TP) The Madoubly government expects its financing gap to shrink to EGP 2.7 tn in the upcoming FY 2026-27 budget, down from EGP 3.6 tn in the current fiscal year, a senior official tells EnterpriseAM. This optimism is backed by anticipated improvement in economic indicators and higher tax revenues, with the Finance Ministry expecting EGP 2.7-3.0 tn in tax collection as part of EGP 4 tn in total public revenues. These funds would go toward covering a total spending bill of EGP 5 tn.

Why it matters: Although we are caught in the midst of a regional crisis, the government is hopeful it will get some breathing room from the pressure of securing emergency funding so it can focus on issuing longer-term debt. If the government’s optimistic scenario plays out, this means the cost of borrowing for businesses to expand operations, build factories, or manage cashflow will get significantly cheaper next year.

Two scenarios modeled: In an optimistic scenario, assuming regional tensions end quickly, economic growth could reach 5.4%, and the budget deficit could narrow to 4.9%. If the crisis persists, the government is bracing for a deficit of 5.5% — still a marked improvement over the 7.3% projected for the current fiscal year. “We expect the current crisis to end and foreign investment inflows into debt instruments to return, which will drive down the average interest rate to a target of 17% during the next fiscal year, compared to a current average of 25–26%,” we’re told.

Looking ahead: The government is leaning on its new public debt strategy to push average debt maturities to between 2.5–3 years, with a medium-term goal of reaching 4.5–5 years, we’re told. Longer-term bonds will account for the bulk of the financing needed to bridge the gap, while short-term treasury bills will continue to make up a significant share of issuances given the still-elevated interest-rate environment.

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4

Capital markets

The 15-month bull run on the EGX just hit its first real wall

The EGX closed 1Q in the green, with the headline figure masking a March selloff that marked the first major crack in a 15-month bull run. The benchmark index gained 8.4% to reach 45.3k points in the first quarter of the year, despite dipping 7.9% in March as the Iran war disrupted markets and triggered a pullback in foreign portfolio flows, data from the bourse’s latest quarterly (pdf) and monthly (pdf) reports show.

The macro picture

More than liquidity chasing a trade: “Egypt entered 2026 with genuine macro improvement — the balance of payments strengthening, the current account deficit narrowing, FX stability returning and the external position improving on the back of carry inflows,” EFG Hermes Research Associate Noura El Essawy and EGH Hermes Research Materials MD and Chemicals Research Head Youssef Husseini, tell EnterpriseAM. That backdrop made valuations “increasingly attractive relative to a risk profile that had materially improved,” supporting what they describe as a well-founded equity bid.

This is not the correction we’ve been expecting: “After the strong start to the year, it is normal to see a correction (even if the market remained relatively cheap), but the magnitude and flows suggest it is mostly geopolitics,” Beltone Holding Head of Research Ahmed Hafez tells us.

FX volatility bites

Hot money heads for the exit: While Egypt started the year as a top pick for frontier investors on cheap valuations and macro tailwinds, the conflict forced a reversal of foreign fund inflows seen in January and February, Hafez tells us.

The FX move proved particularly punitive for foreign positioning. The EGP depreciation “raised the mark-to-market cost of EGP-denominated positions for foreign investors simultaneously, compounding the pressure,” Husseini and El Essawy say, describing a rapid unwinding of the pillars that had supported the earlier re-rating.

REMEMBER- Morgan Stanely downgraded its outlook for Egyptian equities to “equal weight” from “overweight” earlier in March, citing the country's vulnerability as a net oil importer with a tourism-reliant economy, and a struggling Suez Canal against a backdrop of regional unrest.

Where the market is holding up

Almost all major sectors closed March in the red as profittaking intensified. Only shipping and transportation services managed to buck the trend, jumping 14.1%. On the flipside, IT, media, and communications lagged the market with a 10.0% drop, followed by food, beverages, and tobacco (-8.3%), healthcare and pharma (-7.4%), and construction (-7.1%).

Parts of the market monetized the macro shock, others absorbed it: Banks and basic resources effectively acted as hedges, with revenue models benefiting from higher rates, currency weakness, and elevated commodity prices, Husseini and El Essawy say. By contrast, consumer-facing sectors — including food, healthcare, and industrials — “import inputs priced in USD, sell domestically in a depreciating currency, and serve consumers whose real purchasing power is being squeezed,” leaving them exposed on the cost side with limited offsets.

Zooming out

How we fared against regional peers: Saudi Arabia’s energy-heavy TASI outperformed the EGX in March with a 5.1% increase as higher oil prices propped up Aramco’s stock. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s ADX (-8.9%) and Dubai’s DFM (-16.4%) bore the brunt of the region’s geopolitical unrest as Dubai’s two growth engines — tourism and real estate — took a hit.

Domestic liquidity is still present, but increasingly selective. “With one of the highest real interest rates globally, the gravitational pull toward fixed income is particularly strong,” Husseini and El Essawy say, pointing to T-bills yielding above 23% versus an equity earnings yield of roughly 7%. Retail dip-buying helped cushion drawdowns, but institutional capital continues to favor fixed income.

Any sustained recovery in flows will likely hinge first on geopolitics. “Geopolitics is the unlock,” Husseini and El Essawy say, arguing that de-escalation is needed to stabilise FX, compress risk premiums, and reopen the path for rate cuts without which equities struggle to compete with fixed income on a risk-adjusted basis.

AND- EFG Hermes arms topped the EGX brokerage league table (pdf) last quarter with a combined market share of 16.8%, followed by Thndr (11.9%) and Mubasher (6.7%). EFG’s two brokerages retained the top spot with a 15.9% market share in March, beating Thndr (12.9%) and Mubasher (6.8%), according to the bourse’s monthly ranking (pdf).

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5

Banking

Banks are trading growth for safety

Escalating regional tensions and a spike in global energy costs are pushing banks away from growth-led strategies in favor of a cautious and defensive approach, industry insiders tell EnterpriseAM. Local lenders are offloading risk from energy-intensive manufacturing and logistics while doubling down on defensive sectors like agri-tech, pharma, and import substitution, we’re told.

“Banks in Egypt and other emerging markets are no longer driven solely by the goal of achieving the highest returns,” Egyptian Society for Political Economy, Statistics, and Legislation member Ahmed Shawky tells us. The “primary focus has shifted to maintaining asset quality and enhancing the ability to withstand shocks,” he explained, warning that crises often lead to the ratios of non-performing loans rising 1 to 2 percentage points in emerging markets.

With a growing drain on foreign currency, lenders are intensifying portfolio reviews and shifting their focus to risk management, NBK Corporate Finance Assistant Deputy CEO Mohamed Abdel Moneim similarly tells us.

“Traditional models are no longer sufficient under current challenges,” according to Shawky, as banks are now “relying on extended stress tests covering multiple scenarios, such as spikes in energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and currency devaluation,” and putting increased weight on future earnings flow expectations. “In times of crisis, the strength of a bank is not measured by its capacity to lend, but by its ability to make the right credit decision at the right time with the highest degree of professional prudence,” according to Shawky.

Banks are prioritizing food, pharma, healthcare, and agriculture — sectors seen as resilient to external shocks — while scaling back exposure to industries grappling with supply chain disruptions and rising operating costs, Abdel Moneim said. Shawky also points to renewable energy, SMEs, fintech, and digital services as sectors being pivoted towards by banks as they move “toward reducing concentration in sectors most vulnerable to volatility while strengthening precautionary provisions and repricing financing to reflect actual risk.”

Why this matters: With between USD 5.2 bn and USD 6.8 bn in foreign outflows since February and CDS spreads hovering near 330 points, “the expansion first logic no longer dominates,” Alraya Consulting and Training Managing Partner Hany Abou El Fotouh tells EnterpriseAM. Banks are no longer looking at clients’ growth trajectories, but stress testing them for a weaker EGP, vulnerability to supply chain disruptions, and exposure to high energy costs, he added. Depending on where your company sits on these points, the cost of capital might have just gone up significantly.

What’s next? If pressures persist, credit growth could fall from normal rates of around 10% to 5% as banks become “more stringent in granting credit, redirecting financing toward defensive sectors and prioritizing liquidity management and asset quality over lending expansion,” according to Shawky. Abou El Fotouh also suggests that a longer war will lead to banks opting for further “shorter-term financing, higher selectivity, and more conservative risk pricing.”

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6

Also on our Radar

Bokra debuts Shakmagia gold fund this month, targets EGP 10 mn

Bokra to launch new Shakmagia gold fund this month

Bokra Holding is planning to launch its FRA-approved Shakmagia gold fund this month, with an initial target of EGP 10 mn before expanding to meet investor demand. “Our core customer is the Egyptian woman, who has always used gold as her primary savings tool,” CEO Ayman Elsawy tells EnterpriseAM, explaining that “through a regulated fund structure, it also becomes a vehicle for real returns in a way that jewellery in a drawer never was.”

Elsawy expects the ongoing war and resulting market uncertainty to increase interest in the fund, given that “when markets are volatile and the geopolitical outlook is unclear, investors, both institutional and everyday savers, naturally look for a store of value they can trust.”

Bokra has more products in the pipeline, including a planned Health Tech Care Fund, which Bokra says builds on its excitement regarding “entrepreneurs building in this space and the real difference their work can make.” Bokra is also looking to launch its Aqar Fund for Underurbanized Areas, which will serve the “enormous underserved market in smaller cities and developing areas” and “families with real housing needs who are ignored by traditional developers” clustered around Cairo and focused on premium segments, Ayman says. The company is also planning its Manufacturing Fund Egypt to support Egypt’s “industrial base, create jobs, and reduce import dependency.”

FRA is capping vehicle depreciation rates to settle claims disputes

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has capped depreciation rates for vehicle accident repairs to ensure fair payouts, according to a statement from the authority. FRA Chairman Islam Azzam issued a new decree to protect car owners by setting a strict maximum limit on depreciation — the amount deducted for wear and tear on spare parts during accident repairs.

Ins. firms are now banned from exceeding the regulator’s maximum depreciation percentages when calculating repair estimates. However, the regulator is encouraging market competition by allowing firms to write lower depreciation rates into their policies, provided they do not cross the official cap.

The decree also aims to end disputes between ins. firms and clients over the retention of damaged parts. Driven by the surging market value of used cars and spare parts, ins. companies can now legally enforce policy terms requiring customers to either hand over damaged parts after a repair or accept a pre-agreed deduction from their claim payout if they choose to keep the scrap.

Gov’t, ILO, iSchool launch digital skills pilot for children

The labor and social solidarity ministries, the International Labour Organization (ILO), and iSchool have launched a digital skills pilot, according to a statement by the Labor Ministry. The pilot’s first phase will target children currently enrolled in the ILO’s Scream program, with a training path beginning with foundational STEM and life skills before progressing to specialized tracks in programming and AI.

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7

PLANET FINANCE

Global private equity activity slows down due to AI-related risks, geopolitical tensions

Global private equity’s nascent recovery has been stalled by a double-whammy of geopolitical conflict and technological anxiety. After 2025 closed out the year on notes of recovery and optimism, the first quarter of 2026 showed a sharp reversal in momentum.

By the numbers: Globally, 1Q 2026 buyout activity fell to USD 172 bn (down 36% q-o-q; 8% y-o-y), while exits dropped 33% q-o-q to USD 162 bn, the Financial Times reports, citing data from Dealogic. The industry is choking on a backlog of pre-2022 investments that have been difficult to exit or refinance amid high rates and geopolitical shocks. Consequently, fundraising remains dry. The USD 86 bn raised in 1Q 2026 falls just under the lackluster pace of the same period in 2025 — the sector's weakest year since 2018.

Behind the slowdown

The war in the Gulf isn’t helping: Several buyout firms paused signings altogether due to the heightened volatility from the war, with executives warning that the full economic fallout from the conflict has yet to materialise.

The biggest blow has been to the software sector: Traditionally, the safest and most lucrative wager for private equity, AI is now being approached with more caution. Investors fear that agentic AI — AI that can perform complex tasks autonomously — will cannibalize existing software business models. As such, many firms have adopted a “wait and see” approach, holding off on deploying capital into software until they can identify which companies are resilient to AI disruption.

Looking ahead

This AI reluctance could skew gains toward the few: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s latest annual letter argued that the companies best positioned to use AI — those with the right data, infrastructure, and capital — will reap most of the benefits, leaving others behind and deepening the wealth gap between those that can invest in the technology and those that want to but lack the resources.

Our take: The steady revenue models that drove SaaS buyout over the past few years are now being called into question as AI starts to challenge traditional software pricing. That uncertainty is creating gaps in the market — gaps that well-capitalized GCC investors are well placed to step into, particularly as they look to rebound from the impact of the regional conflict.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly up in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei the only exception, having erased earlier gains and trading 0.3% lower. US stock futures are down as well after US President Donald Trump set an 8pm EST deadline for the US and Iran to reach a deal.

EGX30

47,652

+0.8% (YTD: +13.9%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 54.37

Sell 54.51

USD (CIB)

Buy 54.39

Sell 54.49

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

11,263

-0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)

ADX

9,625

+0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)

DFM

5,448

-0.7% (YTD: -9.9%)

S&P 500

6,612

+0.4% (YTD: -3.4%)

FTSE 100

10,436

+0.7% (YTD: +5.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,693

-0.7% (YTD: -1.7%)

Brent crude

USD 109.77

+0.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.81

-0.1%

Gold

USD 4,685

0.0%

BTC

USD 68,655

-0.5% (YTD: -21.7%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,021

+0.1% (YTD: +2.8%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

149.14

-0.3% (YTD: -1.8%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

24.17

+1.3% (YTD: +61.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.6 bn (14.7% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 13.9% YTD.

In the green: Valmore Holding -EGP (+5.2%), Raya Holding (+3.7%), and ADIB (+3.0%).

In the red: Egypt Aluminum (-2.3%), Beltone Holding (-1.7%), and Amoc (-1.5%).

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Our weekly deep dive into the green economy and ESG issue in Egypt.

Published every Tuesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read going Green
8

Going Green

Could Shams Masr help solve our energy challenges?

Shams Misr initiative leans on concessional finance to drive a solar boom: Egypt could accelerate solar adoption and achieve immediate fiscal savings if the state backs initiatives to deploy distributed solar systems across homes, factories, commercial sites, farms, and off-grid areas. This is the premise of the Shams Misr initiative put forward by the Sustainable Energy Development Association (SEDA), an industry group, which is planning a lobbying push to put the idea on the radars of cabinet and other government agencies amid a recent surge in fuel import costs.

The initiative focuses on lowering upfront costs and stimulating demand through a package of direct incentives. It calls for concessional financing at 0% interest for solar energy adopters, and aims to raise the internal rate of return for end users from 20% to 38% by exempting components and EPC contracts from customs duties and VAT for five years. The initiative targets installing up to 5 GW over five years, potentially saving the state coffers around USD 500 mn annually in gas subsidies used for power generation.

How is the saving calculated? The calculation of natural gas savings under Shams Misr is based on converting solar generation capacity into equivalent thermal units and monetary value. The model assumes that every 1 MW of installed solar capacity saves around 10k MMBtu of gas annually. This benchmark is used to compare solar generation with conventional alternatives, particularly diesel-powered generators in off-grid areas. Based on an assumed LNG price of USD 15 per MMBtu, each 1 MW installed translates into annual savings of roughly USD 150k.

Sustainable financing included: The initiative also proposes establishing a dedicated fund under the name Shams Misr to finance solar expansion, funded through a levy of one piaster per kWh on electricity bills, generating around EGP 3 bn annually. Additional funding would come from penalties on high-emission, non-compliant activities. The mechanism is designed to secure stable domestic financing while unlocking access to international green finance and accelerating solar deployment to reduce the reliance on imported fuel and strengthen energy security.

Growing momentum: Calls to accelerate distributed solar adoption have gained traction on social media following the US-Israeli-Iran war and the resulting spike in global and local energy prices. Bn’aire Naguib Sawiris called for installing solar systems across residential compounds to enable self-sufficiency, while Hatem Tawfik, managing director of Cairo Solar and a SEDA board member, renewed calls for the government to adopt the Shams Misr initiative in a video posted online, highlighting its improving economic viability (watch, runtime: 3:31).

Financing, not demand, is the bottleneck: “We need a dedicated concessional financing initiative for solar. These are capital-intensive investments, and homeowners or factories are not expected to deploy cash today and recover it over six or seven years,” Tawfik told EnterpriseAM, adding that “loan installments under the proposed model would be equivalent to the electricity savings, meaning cash flows remain unaffected.” This would also enable companies to export to markets requiring clean energy compliance. Once loans are repaid over around five years, users fully benefit from solar savings.

The economics are already compelling: Installing 1 GW of solar capacity under concessional financing would require around USD 150 mn, which could be recovered within a year, Tawfik told us. According to the proposal, households with monthly electricity bills of around EGP 2k could fully offset this cost by installing solar panels at approximately EGP 150k, implying a clear payback period, especially when supported by concessional financing.

Costs have risen, but remain attractive: Solar module prices have increased from around 9 cents to 16 cents following changes in Chinese export subsidies, but remain well below historical levels of around 59 cents in 2014, Tawfik said. Installation costs currently stand at around EGP 18 to 19k per kW for residential users, compared to roughly EGP 14k for industrial users, reflecting a typical 20 to 25% cost differential due to inverter requirements. Additional measures such as scrapping the 14% VAT and reducing customs duties, 2% on panels and 5% on components, would further enhance project economics, he said.

Every kilowatt matters for the state: The government currently bears at least EGP 4 per kWh in electricity costs, meaning distributed solar expansion delivers direct fiscal savings regardless of who installs the systems, Tawfik explained.

A regulatory framework exists, but momentum has stalled: The government allows up to 1 GW under the net metering scheme through 2030, providing a foundation for rollout.

“That was phase one, enabling installations. The next step is scaling financing, but discussions with policymakers have yet to translate into implementation,” Tawfik said.

Technical constraints? Technical challenges are limiting rapid expansion of distributed solar, primarily related to the grid’s capacity to absorb excess generation, a government source told EnterpriseAM. Peak generation periods often exceed consumption, requiring surplus power to be fed into the grid, which necessitates grid connectivity for all systems. Unregulated capacity additions could strain transformers, shorten their lifespan, and increase maintenance costs beyond achieved savings.

Two pathways to solve the issue: The government is studying mapping grid capacity and load distribution across new and planned areas. The other pathway could be mandating battery storage for all renewable energy projects to stabilize supply, though this is still under review in light of evolving fuel use patterns and grid needs, the source said.

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CALENDAR

2026

APRIL

9 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation figures for March

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

15 June (Monday): Seventh review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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