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Wednesday, 9 Apr 2025

What We’re Tracking Today
Egp Watch
Trade
Budget Watch
Investment Watch
Moves
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar

Egypt looks to QIZ program to help lock in lower US tariff

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Today at a glance

1

TRADE

Egypt could get partial relief from Trump’s tariffs — but there’s a catch.
2

EGP WATCH

EGP offsets some of its losses as investors cautiously re-enter our debt market.
3

BUDGET WATCH

Gov’t lowers its forecast for oil prices in FY 2025-26 amid global uncertainty.
4

INVESTMENT WATCH

Egypt, France sign several financing, cooperation agreements during Macron’s visit.
5

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Macron’s final day in his three-day visit to Egypt dominated the airwaves.
6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

LNG regasification unit from Germany to dock in June under five-year lease agreement.
7

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Eni to invest EUR 8 bn in Egypt over the next four years.
8

PLANET FINANCE

China braces for a “fight to the end” against US tariffs.
9

HARDHAT

JLL’s two cents on Cairo’s real estate sector’s performance last year.

Wednesday, 9 Apr 2025

What We’re Tracking Today
Egp Watch
Trade
Budget Watch
Investment Watch
Moves
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Wall Street stocks slide as MENA indexes rise

Good morning, friends. The EGP strengthened a bit against the greenback yesterday, snapping a multiday losing streak after policymakers made clear Egypt was not backing away from a floating FX regime. The currency gained slightly against the USD as a handful of foreign investors bought back into the carry trade after seeing others exit smoothly earlier in the week.

Also yesterday: A top Egyptian trade official said Egypt has a chance of locking in preferential tariff rates on some categories of goods and Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk was on the ground here in Dubai at the EFG Hermes One on One, showing the flag as he met all day long with foreign investors. He did so a day after CBE Deputy Governor Ramy Aboul Naga told hundreds of investors at the opening of the gathering that the central bank was absolutely committed to a floating FX regime, calling it a “shock absorber” for the economy that has been carefully ringfenced by policymakers to ensure there was no going back in a storm like this.

EGX WATCH-

The EGX30 also gained ground yesterday, clawing back fractionally more than the 0.6% it lost the day before, according to EGX data. Most other regional exchanges also posted gains yesterday. Index heavyweight CIB was up a bit more than 1% for the day, Telecom Egypt shares climbed a bit more than 0.6%, and Edita was up 0.3%. The EGX30 is now up 3.1% YTD.

Gulf markets closed higher across the board, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as investors hoped the US may come to the table on tariffs, Reuters reports. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark TASI rose 1.0%, building on Monday’s recovery after a 6.8% plunge on Sunday — its steepest one-day loss since early 2020. Dubai’s DFM gained 1.9%, boosted by Emaar Properties (+1.3%) and Dubai Islamic Bank (+2.2%), while Abu Dhabi’s ADX closed 0.5% in the green.

Asian and European markets were largely up yesterday, but turmoil was the order of the day for the S&P, the Dow, and the Nasdaq. All three closed in the red, dragged down by Trump making good on his threat of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods.

The tariff, which reaches up to 120% for some goods, saw the S&P 500 close down 1.6% for the day — dangerously close to the 20% mark defining a bear market. Traders had sent the index soaring 4% earlier in the day after reports that the US was looking to hold trade talks with South Korea and Japan. (FT | WSJ)

AND- Oil price hit a fresh four-year low after news of the China tariff hit, with Brent crude futures dropping to USD 62.82 a barrel, Reuters reports. We have more on the escalating trade war — and the potential response from China — in Planet Finance, below.

DEBT WATCH-

Egypt’s sovereign sukuk prices have fallen to their lowest level in 11 months, reaching USD 101.24 on 4 April, down from USD 101.73 only a week prior, according to a report (pdf) from the Finance Ministry’s Egyptian Financial Company for Sovereign Taskeek. The report attributes the fall to the debt market continuing to bear the brunt of US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff measures and their subsequent effects on investor sentiment.

REMEMBER- The Finance Ministry closed its maiden sukuk issuance back in February 2023, under a three-year, USD 5 bn sukuk program that saw the state net USD 1.5 bn in an offering that was 4x oversubscribed. A senior government official confirmed to EnterpriseAM last month that early steps were in progress to issue sukuk in the domestic market, though no specific timeline had been set yet.

The cost of sovereign debt also rose 1.4 percentage points to 6.95% over the same period, reflecting a rise in geopolitical tensions, according to the report.

INFLATION WATCH-

Will March inflation keep falling — or is a reversal in store? All eyes will be on state statistics agency Capmas tomorrow as it releases inflation figures for March. Annual urban inflation slowed sharply in February to 12.8% — its lowest level in two years — plunging 11.2 percentage points on the back of a favorable base effect and stable food prices. But whether that disinflationary momentum has carried into March remains up for debate, particularly with the holy month of Ramadan in the mix.

Analysts we polled earlier this week were split, with half of the ten respondents expecting inflation to inch down up to 0.4 percentage points, while the other half saw a potential uptick — with some penciling in a rebound to as high as 18%. The median forecast saw inflation holding steady at 12.8%.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

The Senate approved a study aimed at reforming Egypt’s customs system, including expediting customs clearance and clamping down on smuggling, according to a statement from the Parliamentary Affairs Ministry. The study, which involves amendments to the Customs Law, has been forwarded to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi for approval.

The commonsense plan was prepared by our friend Sen. Mohamed Abou Ghaly and involves standardizing customs procedures across all ports, automating price verification systems so that estimated values for imported goods are accurately matched with real market prices, and implementing a secure system for tracking goods movement without human intervention, among other changes.

The reforms will be brought to life in two phases. The first will see the implementation of regulations aimed at improving pre-clearance procedures and employing specialized committees, while the second will focus on executive regulations that establish binding controls.

PSA-

We’re getting closer and closer to living in the movie Her as AI models keep getting more advanced. Google is pushing new camera and screen-sharing functionality on Gemini Live — while having voice chats with the LLM, users can show it objects using their phone’s camera or or by sharing their screen, the company said in a blog post. At the moment, the feature is only available to Gemini Advanced subscribers on Android and all Pixel 9 and Samsung S25 users. It supports over 45 languages, including Arabic.

When might it come in handy? Google wants you to think of it for use cases including organizing your living room, giving you pointers on how to declutter and maximize your space. It can also help with brainstorming ideas and let you sort out your personal approach to fashion or wardrobe planning.

WEATHER- It’s cooling down in the capital today, with a very pleasant high of 28°C and a low of 15°C, according to our favorite weather app.

And it's cooler still in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 15°C for the day.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at how Cairo’s real estate sector performed in 2024, breaking down the most prominent trends in the residential, hospitality, office, and retail spaces.

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Somabay; every reason to fall in love.

2

EGP WATCH

EGP strengthens against the USD after four days of losses as carry trade investors cautiously re-enter Egypt’s debt market

The EGP rallied against the greenback yesterday, snapping a four-day slide as one USD changed hands for around 51.33 at both public and private banks. The rate stood at EGP 51.47 to the USD the day before, its lowest point since the March 2024 float after US President Donald Trump kicked off his trade war. (The EGP started the week at EGP 50.62.)

The Central Bank of Egypt’s determination to stick to a floating FX regime appears to be paying off: Bankers we spoke with yesterday tell us that a handful of foreign portfolio investors cautiously bought back into Egyptian debt. Debt markets saw outflows starting Sunday after the scope of the Trump tariff war became clear — as some investors opted to lock in gains and move to cash or other less-risky assets in a time of uncertainty. The pace of outflows slowed significantly yesterday, two bankers said, and the interbank market remains healthy.

We figured this could happen, saying in yesterday’s issue that carry-trade investors who left Egypt this week were doing so with a good taste in their mouths: “They made money. And when the current turmoil settles, they’ll remember they got their USD and got out smoothly — a big vote of confidence in Egypt and the CBE.”

What’s bringing them back? The returns here are too lucrative to turn down, with Egypt offering one of the best yields on debt globally, the bankers noted.

Volumes on the interbank market are returning to more normal levels, down 70% from Sunday’s peak at USD 250-300 mn.

SMART POLICY- Egyptian policymakers are on the ground at the EFG Hermes One on One in Dubai sending the right signals. Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk met throughout the day yesterday with investors. On Monday, Central Bank of Egypt Deputy Governor Ramy Aboul Naga was crystal clear, telling investors that a floating FX regime is a “shock absorber” for the economy from which the CBE has no intention of backing away. This type of policy maturity is incredibly welcome.

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3

TRADE

Egypt could get partial relief from Trump’s tariffs — but there’s a catch

Tariff relief could be on its way, with the US considering easing its recently imposed 10% tariff on exports from Egypt’s Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs) as well as on some goods subject to most-favored nation (MFN) tariffs, Commercial Representation Service head Yahya Al Wathiq Billah said at an Egyptian Center for Economic Studies gathering attended by EnterpriseAM. Relief would only be in the cards if Egypt addresses several non-tariff barriers, Al Wathiq Billah said, relaying what was said in a recent meeting between US and Egyptian trade officials.

Why this matters: If 10% is “the new 0%,” a cut below 10% for QIZ or other select categories could be a boon for manufacturers in certain sectors. It would be good not just for folks producing here now — and might help attract FDI to the market as companies scramble for preferential access to US markets while also looking to diversify away from China. (The caveat, of course, is “Who else does Trump do a deal with to get below 10%?”)

In exchange for relaxing its own tariffs, US officials are pushing for the removal of non-tariff restrictions in key sectors, including ICT, air freight, and corporate ownership rules, Al Wathiq Billah said. He also said that the Americans have flagged issues including our ban on importing market poultry parts and potato seeds, limitations on outbound data transfers from local data centers (data sovereignty is a hot topic in our part of the world), and the halal certification processes. However, “some of these restrictions can’t be lifted due to national security concerns,” Al Wathiq Billah noted.

The US is said to be open to adding new products covered under the QIZ agreement, but has opposed expanding the pact to cover new geographical zones of Egypt, Al Wathiq Billah said. This could mean that goods, including electronics and leather goods, could be included in the program as long as the 10.5% Israeli content requirement is met. This presents a huge advantage that Egypt could leverage to have a competitive cost advantage over other peer exporters to the US, Al Wathiq Billah noted.

Talks to lower the Israeli content requirement —an Egyptian goal for nearly two decades — remain on pause, with talks suspended following the outbreak of Israel's war on Gaza.

Tariff relief or not, Egypt is already subject to the US’ lowest rate — and that’s good news for FDI. Al Wathiq Billah described the current moment as a unique chance for Egypt to take advantage of the new US tariff system, particularly in sectors like ready-made garments and textiles — where tariffs on exports from competitors like Bangladesh and Vietnam exceed 40%. The Investment Ministry is already receiving weekly visits from Chinese and Turkish investors exploring opportunities to manufacture in Egypt and re-export to the US, he added. If Egypt moves quickly, it could bring in as much as USD 15 bn in additional FDI, Al Wathiq Billah said.

However, this could be complicated by the US starting to scrutinize origins of the companies and investments behind our exports. In a future phase, the US could impose higher tariffs on Egyptian exports produced by companies with non-national capital — such as those backed by Chinese or Turkish investors — according to Egyptian Exporters Association head Mohamed Kassem. The stated aim of Washington’s new tariffs is to bring back high-value manufacturing to US soil and redraw global trade, which may lead the US to begin verifying the origin of capital behind exporting companies to prevent the circumvention of its tariff regime.

An opportunity in the making? The reshaping of the global trade order could be a chance for Egypt to reposition itself as a manufacturing and services hub, EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us in Dubai on the sidelines of the EFG Hermes One on One investor conference.

The caveat: We need to see more private-sector involvement in the economy for that to work. That means less crowding-out by state actors, Shams said, and more competitiveness to deliver higher returns on capital. Policy is key here, and if the El Sisi administration works hand-in-hand with the private sector, Egypt could emerge from this crisis on a stronger footing, he added.

SOUND SMART #1- Egypt’s QIZ pact with the US and Israel that began in 2005 allows goods made in designated Egyptian zones to enter the US without duties or quotas provided they include around 10.5% Israeli production input. The agreement — which has particularly helped boost Egypt’s textile and garment exports to the US — was set up by the US to deepen regional cooperation and was modeled on an earlier US-Jordan QIZ pact, which Washington viewed as a lever for regional peace and economic integration.

SOUND SMART #2- MFN tariffs are the lowest standard import duties that a country would apply to other members of the World Trade Organization — unless a special trade pact exists between the two. Despite the misleading name, MFN tariffs are not about special treatment, but instead, equal treatment. The US has a long list of products for which it has tariffs, from a 2.5% levy on all passenger cars to a 131.8% duty on shelled peanuts — and everything in between.

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4

BUDGET WATCH

Egyptian government lowers its forecast for oil prices in FY 2025-26 amid global uncertainty

The Finance Ministry now sees Brent crude prices averaging USD 77 per barrel from July 2025 through June 2026, down from its previous forecast of USD 82 a barrel in the FY 2024-25 budget, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The estimated price could be higher than actual oil price levels during the year, our source suggested, saying that indicators are pointing towards a global dip in oil prices at large.

It’s been a tough week for oil in the markets this week, most recently with Brent crude falling 19.0% this month already, with the all-important commodity now trading at USD 62.82 a barrel. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate has faced an even tougher month, now down 19.0% in just nine days to sit at USD 57.66 a barrel . The two are currently trading at their lowest levels since early 2021 — a far cry from the USD 100 a barrel forecasts that popped up in the international business press throughout 2024.

The government is looking to hedge against future uncertainties by renewing its annual hedging contracts with investment banks, with current global conditions as among the most difficult to date, our source added. The state has also been deploying a bit more hard currency than usual, looking to take advantage of the sharp decline in global commodity prices — including oil — by securing strategic contracts, a government source told EnterpriseAM earlier this week.

But on the plus side, lower global oil prices will benefit Egypt’s external balances given its position as a net importer in recent months and until the Zohr gas field’s production levels recover, EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us on the sidelines of EFG Hermes’ annual One on One in Dubai.

The current decline in prices and renewed tariff-induced inflation concerns could also prompt the government to consider temporarily postponing fuel price hikes — especially as the average selling price inches closer to the break-even point of USD 57 a barrel without government subsidies, a source from the oil sector told EnterpriseAM. The move would give the government the flexibility to maintain current prices temporarily until the global outlook becomes clearer, while still reducing the amount it pays out in subsidies. Alternatively, the government could move to raise prices at a slower pace than previously planned, which would help support the state’s economic and social efforts, the source added.

But don’t expect the price of gas to fall, economist Mona Bedair told EnterpriseAM. She explained that “even with favorable oil market dynamics, the catch-up mechanism, the drive toward cost recovery, and the need to fund diesel subsidies all point to a likely increase in retail fuel prices — not a reduction.” Doing this “helps the government balance between fiscal responsibility and social protection, while maintaining credibility with its IMF reform commitments,” she added.

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5

INVESTMENT WATCH

Egypt, France sign several financing, cooperation agreements during Macron’s visit

It was another busy day for Egyptian-French relations with a raft of agreements inked between the two sides across various sectors on the sidelines of French President Emmanuel Macron’s official visit to Cairo which kicked off earlier this week.

ICYMI- Egypt and France inked a strategic partnership agreement that will focus on areas including railway industry localization, technical and vocational training, AI, cybersecurity, and green hydrogen earlier this week.

The details: Egypt, France — through the French Development Agency (AFD) and the EU inked nine agreements for soft loans and grants worth a combined EUR 262.3 mn for infrastructure projects, according to a statement. The two sides also inked a number of agreements in other sectors. We break them down below:

INFRASTRUCTURE-

#1- Alexandria electricity control center will get EUR 50 mn in financing from the AFD and an EUR 10 mn grant from the EU under the government’s Nexus for Food, Water, and Energy initiative. The center will support electricity supply and stability to Alexandria in response to increased energy demand.

#2- The New East Alexandria Wastewater Treatment Plant Project will receive EUR 68 mn in funding from the AFD and a EUR 2 mn grant. The project will support the existing East Alexandria Treatment Plant by serving an additional 1.5 mn people, treating 300k cubic meters of water per day between the completion of the first phase and 2032.

#3- The third phase of the Gabal El Asfar water treatment plant is in line for EUR 50 mn in funding from AFD, a EUR 1.5 mn AFD grant, and a EUR 10 mn grant from the EU, managed by AFD. The financing was greenlit by the cabinet in April 2024. Phase three will raise the plant's capacity by 1 mn cubic meters per day to serve 17.5 mn people by 2040. Construction on expansion is expected to begin in early 2026.

#4- The Robeiky-Tenth of Ramadan-Belbeis freight and passenger railway line will receive EUR 70.8 mn in financing and an EUR 800k grant from the AFD. The railway had already received an EUR 40 mn loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development back in 2022. Construction is already underway, with 80% of bridgework and 65% of overpasses completed.

#5- A new control and distribution center is being established in Sharm El Sheikh will be developed under a newly signed contract between Schneider Electric and the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company, according to a separate statement from the Electricity Ministry.

ENERGY-

Getting the ball rolling on the Ras Shoukair EUR 7 bn green hydrogen plant: A consortium of France's EDF Renewables and Egyptian-Emirati firm Zero Waste inked a cooperation agreement with the Red Sea Ports Authority and the New and Renewable Energy Authority, under which the consortium will design, build, finance, and operate its planned EUR 7 bn green hydrogen plant in Ras Shoukair, according to an Industry Ministry statement. The consortium will also finance and develop a loading dock for the Red Sea Ports Authority and install the necessary utilities. It will also set up a desalination plant to supply the facility.

About the project: The project will have an annual production capacity of 1 mn tons of green ammonia when fully operational in early 2029 — production will be split between the local market and exports. The first of the project’s three phases will cost some EUR 2 bn and will produce 300k mn tons of green ammonia annually.

INDUSTRY-

French rolling stock company Alstom inked a land usufruct agreement with the General Authority for Land and Dry Ports for its EUR 80 mn Borg El Arab railway manufacturing complex. The first phase of the project’s development will see a components factory built on 13 acres, producing signaling systems and electrical circuits.

EDUCATION-

Egypt and France signed 42 cooperation agreements between 13 Egyptian and 22 French universities at the Egypt-France Higher Education Forum. These include 70 joint academic programs including 30 dual-degree offerings in areas like cybersecurity, environmental sustainability, and advanced technology. Another framework agreement will see the Egyptian and French universities offer 100 PhD scholarships and establish dual degrees in 15 disciplines.

HEALTHCARE-

The two countries inked four healthcare agreements, three of which are with pharma company Sanofi in areas including vaccines, diabetes, and rare diseases, with initiatives ranging from awareness campaigns and medical staff training to the rollout of digital health tools. The fourth agreement will see France’s Gustave Roussy Institute establish a licensed cancer treatment center in Cairo. The institute will also collaborate with the Egyptian Health Ministry to develop three cancer treatment centers in Egypt.

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6

Moves

Passant Fouad takes the reins as chief marketing, PR officer at Egypt Kuwait Holding

Egypt KuwaitHolding (EKH) tapped Passant Fouad (LinkedIn) as its new chief marketing and public relations officer, she announced on LinkedIn. Fouad most recently served as director of external communications at Juhayna Food Industries, where she spent nearly a decade leading PR, CSR, media strategy, and stakeholder engagement. She previously held senior marketing and communications roles at JWT, Nokia, Motorola, and MediaCom, and she brings over two decades of experience in building brands and shaping corporate narratives.

What she said: “After more than two decades of building stories, strategies, and brands that reflect purpose and progress — I’m thrilled to share my next professional leap,” Fouad wrote. “EKH is undergoing a major transformation…and I can already tell — we’re going to bring out the best in each other.”

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7

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Macron’s final day in his three-day visit to Egypt dominated the airwaves

The nation’s talking heads remained focused last night on Emmanuel Macron as the French president wrapped-up a three-day visit to Egypt with a stop in North Sinai’s Arish, where he joined President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in a show of support for Gaza. Al Hayah Al Youm aired footage of crowds there to rally behind the Palestinian cause (watch, runtime: 3:18). Masaa DMC’s Osama Kamal noted that Macron stressed France’s support for relief organizations and the Egyptian Red Crescent’s efforts in Gaza (watch, runtime: 4:05). DMC’s Al Youm also covered El Sisi’s farewell to Macron at the end of the visit (watch, runtime: 2:13).

The upgrade in Egypt-France relations to a strategic partnership could help double French trade and investment in Egypt within two to three years, General Authority for Investment head Hossam Heiba said in a phone-in on Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 5:34). Heiba also highlighted agreements signed during the visit targeting key sectors including airports, healthcare, transportation, and renewable energy.

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8

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

LNG regasification unit from Germany to dock in June under five-year lease agreement. PLUS: Eni, Simplex, Rabbit, Maseera Holding + Adva, IGT Solutions

ENERGY-

#1- Egypt entered into a five-year leasing agreement with Germany to charter an LNG regasification vessel — the Energos Power — which is set to dock at Ain Sokhna port by June, two sources with knowledge of the matter told EnterpriseAM. Germany — which reportedly has a charter contract for the vessel until 2032 — will lease the vessel to Egypt at an estimated cost of USD 80 mn per year to provide 500 mn cubic feet of gasification capacity per day.

The government is preparing for a surge in demand over the summer months, which has led the country to target importing 155-160 shipments of LNG this year to close the gap between demand and supply. Egypt reportedly needs around 6.2 bn cubic feet per day (bcf/d), but domestic production currently only contributes 4.4 bcf/d, increasing the need for energy imports.

#2- Italian energy giant Eni has plans to invest around EUR 24 bn over the next four years in Egypt, Libya, and Algeria to boost production, Reuters reports, citing comments made by CEO Claudio Descalzi during an energy conference in Italy. The investment amount will be split equally between the three countries, with each country in store for EUR 8 bn in investment. “Internal demand in these countries — because of demographic growth — is increasing at about 7-8% every year, this means they need gas ... they need investment,” he said.

EXPANSION-

#1- Egyptian grocery delivery startup Rabbit stepped into the Saudi market, launching a network of dark stores and setting up its GCC headquarters in Riyadh as part of a “pragmatic strategy for GCC expansion,” according to a statement (pdf). The company is targeting Saudi Arabia’s USD 60 bn food and grocery market, with plans to deliver 20 mn items across major cities by 2026. No details on the size of Rabbit’s investment in Saudi Arabia were provided.

#2- Local industrial machinery manufacturer Simplex is planning to expand to Qatar and Algeria this year as part of a wider regional and international expansion plan, CEO Ahmed Shaaban told Al Borsa. Simplex is also expanding its footprint into the Saudi market, having inked an MoU with KSA’s National Industrial Development Center in January to build its first factory in the Kingdom with investments of USD 13 mn. The company has secured the funding needed for the plant, Shaaban told Al Borsa.

M&A-

#1- Fintech player Maseera Holding acquired local consumer finance platform Adva, making it its data and tech hub for North Africa, according to a press release. The company — which has now applied for a digital consumer finance license in Egypt — focuses on offering financing for middle- and low-income segments through an AI-driven credit scoring model that uses alternative data like mobile usage insights.

REMEMBER- 2PointZero, the investment arm of Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, acquired Cairo-born fintech Maseera in February, pledging USD 1 bn to the local fintech to support its expansion, rebranding, and the establishment of a new Abu Dhabi-based entity under the Maseera Holding name.

#2- Apex Securities is in advanced talks with Emirati institutions to sell a stake in the firm as part of a broader strategy to transform into a full-service investment bank, CEO Ahmed Turki told Al Mal. Apex, formerly MedCap Securities and Leaders Securities, set up a holdco to consolidate its brokerage and asset management arms. The firm has EGP 720 mn in assets under management.

OUTSOURCING-

Indian IT services company IGT Solutions has opened a new office in Egypt, as part of its expansion plan to quadruple its Egypt-based workforce to 2k employees by 2027, according to a statement (pdf) from the Information Technology Industry Development Agency. The firm currently operates a multilingual service center supporting eight languages and serves clients across sectors including travel, fintech, gaming, and e-commerce. While inaugurating the facility, ICT Minister Amr Talaat noted that Egypt now hosts over 200 global delivery centers — triple the number it had three years ago.

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9

PLANET FINANCE

China braces for a “fight to the end” against US tariffs

Trade war escalates with no end in sight: We seem to be heading to a long war of attrition between the world’s biggest two economies, after China’s Commerce Ministry vowed to “fight to the end” against what it labeled as “unilateral bullying” by the US. Beijing is already deploying a number of monetary and fiscal measures to absorb tariff shocks, with little signs that the crisis will be resolved any time soon.

IN CONTEXT- The Trump administration announced yesterday it will move forward with an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods, bringing average tariffs on Beijing’s exports to over 120%. The combined tax includes the existing 20% tariffs over fentanyl trafficking accusations and the more recent 34% unilateral tariffs, as well as pre-existing 20% tariffs from before Trump’s second term.

The Chinese government allowed the CNY to depreciate on Monday in a bid to improve export competitiveness, fixing the rate against the USD at an 18-month low of just below CNY 7.20. Beijing will likely move forward with gradual depreciation rather than sudden currency moves to avoid destabilizing its economy, Barclays Asia Cross-Asset Strategy Head Kaanhari Singh told the Financial Times.

Other fiscal measures could include increased subsidies and export tax rebates to support affected industries. While such measures carry the risk of exacerbating industrial overcapacity and fueling deflationary pressures, the risk may be worth it for Beijing who “does not view the US measures as conducive to creating the right atmosphere for negotiations,” Bo Zhengyuan, Partner at Plenum, told Reuters.

State-owned companies are also pledging to increase share purchases and engage in stock buybacks in a bid to stabilize the stock market which saw a 7% drop on Monday’s session, before paring back some of the losses yesterday.

Tariffs could push China to seek alternative markets, potentially deepening trade ties with the EU and other developing nations in a bid to mitigate some of the impact. Beijing was Washington’s second largest source of imports last year, logging USD 439 bn in Chinese imports, while US exports to China reached USD 144 bn.

But not everyone inflicted with tariffs is in a confrontational mood, and traditional alliances might end up prevailing. The EU is exploring ways to resolve the conflict without taking distance from Washington as “sooner or later, we will sit at the negotiation table with the US and find a mutually acceptable compromise,” EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said yesterday.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s a mixed morning for Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.7%, while Shanghai Composite remains unchanged. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures indicate more losses on market open, after the S&P 500 dropped 12% over the last four days.

EGX30

30,649

+0.6% (YTD: +3.1%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 51.20

Sell 51.33

USD (CIB)

Buy 51.23

Sell 51.33

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

11,303

+1.0% (YTD: -6.1%)

ADX

8989

+0.5% (YTD: -4.6%)

DFM

4890

+1.9% (YTD: -5.2%)

S&P 500

4983

-1.6% (YTD: -15.3%)

FTSE 100

7911

+2.7% (YTD: -3.2%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4774

+2.5% (YTD: -2.5%)

Brent crude

USD 62.82

-2.2%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.48

+0.4%

Gold

USD 2997.60

+0.3%

BTC

USD 76,750.20

-4.0% (YTD: -18.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.8 bn (36.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the net sellers. The index is up 3.1% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+7.1%), Oriental Weavers (+4.8%), and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+3.5%).

In the red: CIB (-2.2%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.0%), and Juhayna (-0.6%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Telecom Egypt will distribute a dividend of EGP 1.50 per share for its 2024 earnings on 24 April, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX.

#2- GB Corp will pay shareholders a dividend of EGP 0.35 per share over two installments on 30 April and 17 July, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf).

#3- E-finance’s assembly approved a 52.6% capital hike to EGP 1.73 bn, through the distribution of bonus shares at a ratio of one share for every two held. The increase will be financed from reserves, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX.

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Our weekly deep-dive into infrastructure in Egypt.

Published every Wednesday in EnterpriseAM.

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HARDHAT

JLL’s two cents on Cairo’s real estate sector’s performance last year

Cairo's real estate market had a strong 2024, with growth recorded across the board as the market adapted to economic conditions, global consultancy JLL wrote in its latest Middle East and Africa Market Reviews and Outlook report. The report looks at the residential, hospitality, office, and retail sectors and their performance throughout the year in some of Africa and the Middle East’s capitals.

IN CONTEXT- 2024 was a particularly turbulent year, which kicked off with FX shortages and a growing gap between the official and unofficial price of the USD in the local market. Things changed in March following the float of the EGP, which ushered in greater price transparency, curtailed speculation, and revitalized investor confidence in Egypt’s real estate sector.

RESIDENTIAL-

“The residential sector retained its resilience throughout 2024, with rental rates outperforming the market and achieving higher demand and activity,” the report said, pointing to increases in the rental prices of units in Sixth of October City and New Cairo — prices more than doubled in both areas compared to a year earlier, rising 108%.

The secondary market also saw a jump in prices, which the report attributed to “high inflation and homeowners rushing to match developer prices without considering factors like payment plans or affordability constraints.” Prices of units on the secondary market increased 112% in Sixth of October City and 116% in New Cairo in 2024 in comparison to the year before.

“Both rental and sales prices are expected to continue accelerating throughout 2025, albeit at a slower pace than the previous year,” according to the report. JLL points to healthy demand driving rental growth and partly attributes sales price increases to “economic forces such as inflation and devaluation.”

In numbers: The residential sector saw approximately 24k new units completed during 2024 — one of the highest figures reported in the region, just after Dubai’s 33.3k units — bringing the city's total residential stock to about 293k units. An additional 32k units are expected to be completed this year.

Looking ahead: JLL remains bullish on the sector in the short- and medium-terms, it said, pointing to improving economic and market conditions and increasing confidence in the country’s real estate sector on the back of GCC interest.

HOSPITALITY-

The report saw 2024 as “another year of remarkable success for Cairo’s hospitality market, with the sector breaking records in tourist arrivals and exceeding expectations by welcoming 15.7 mn visitors.” The sector saw increased supply activity as construction accelerated, with major players like Hilton, Accor, and IHG announcing expansions in Egypt. While only one hotel — Hyatt Centric Cairo West — was counted in the report’s criteria as having opened its doors in Cairo last year, 2025 is set for stronger growth with nearly 2k new keys expected to be added.

REMEMBER- Last year, the finance and tourism ministries launched a new EGP 50 bnsubsidized loan program for the tourism sector. The program offers financing at 12% interest, providing tourism operators with extended support to expand facilities and accommodate an anticipated growth in visitor numbers. The government plans to add some 240-250k rooms to the existing hotel room capacity.

The numbers: Occupancy levels in Cairo and Giza fell by 5.4 percentage points in 2024 to 65.8%. This dip pushed the revenues recorded per available room during the year to fall to around 4.9% annually.

The fine print: The report notes that the figures may be influenced by an increasing number of budget-conscious travellers who prefer short-term rentals over hotels.

The trend: West Cairo is emerging as the city’s tourism epicenter, backed by government support for its cultural and historic appeal, according to the report. The area is attracting major hospitality investments and tourism attractions, including the new Grand Egyptian Museum and Giza Plateau upgrades — signaling strong growth and diversification for Egypt’s hospitality sector.

OFFICES-

The office market was mostly stable in the capital in 2024 — vacancy rates fell to 9.5% from 9.6% a year earlier, and average rents fell by 1.8% in the year to 4Q 2024 to sit at USD 456 per sqm. Additionally, high-quality grade A office spaces maintained stronger performance due to limited supply.

The market's stability was underpinned by landlords anticipating currency fluctuations and incorporating them into pricing strategies early on, alongside a shift toward predominantly greenback-based transactions that helped mitigate foreign exchange risks.

The numbers: Cairo currently has some 2.2 mn sqm of available office space, after 131k sqm were added over 2024. The report sees an additional 648k sqm of office space added to the market this year.

Looking ahead: “As inflation dissipates compared to recent highs, the general economic backdrop is expected to improve considerably, which will help drive business sentiment and, in turn, investments. As a result, increased demand from corporate occupiers is expected to drive market growth in the medium to long term,” the report read.

BUCKING THE TREND was the retail sector, which saw a slowdown over the past year thanks to construction delays, leasing challenges, and developers reconsidering their projects. The sector started to show signs of improvement later in the year, with rent remaining stable during 4Q 2024 compared to the same period the year before.

The outlook is positive, with a forecast dip in inflation expected to “provide some relief to both retailers and consumers.”

Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • Introducing Modon, a new state company that will manage, operate, and maintain buildings, infrastructure, and urban communities to be set up under a MoU between New Urban Communities Authority and the Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development. (Statement)
  • The Cairo Transportation Authority is launching a tender for a 300 sqm river bus dock near Cairo University to be leased as a commercial space. (Al Mal)
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CALENDAR

APRIL

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Narrative PR Summit, Somabay

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday): EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE.

10 April (Thursday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for March.

17 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

27 April (Sunday): Deadline for applications to MINT Incubator's 3-month equity-free startup program with Alex Angels.

28-30 April (Monday-Wednesday): FDC Regional Digital Industry Summit will launch cybersecurity index.

30 April (Wednesday): Deadline for Australia Awards Scholarships applications.

Mid-April: Egyptian trade delegation to promote investments during an official visit to Canada

Business-to-business forum of Egyptian and Moroccan companies to promote bilateral trade, Cairo, Egypt.

The Suez Canal Container Terminal will begin trial operations for its expanded East Port Said facilities.

Government begins talks with EU on the second tranche of the of the EUR 5 bn concessional loans package

Saxony Delegation visit to Egypt.

Arla Foods’ deadline for Domty acquisition offer.

Egypt to launch trial operations of the first phase of its USD 1.8 bn Egypt-Saudi electricity interconnection project, ahead of schedule

Tahya Misr 1 container terminal to begin operations, adding 3.5 mn container capacity to the port.

MAY

7-10 May (Tuesday-Saturday): Egypt hosts the 24th Pan Arab Junior and Ladies Golf Championship.

10 May (Saturday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for April.

1 May-10 July (Thursday-Tuesday): 500 Global's Scale Up Program, Cairo

18-20 May (Sunday-Tuesday): First Arab International Exhibition for Sustainable Development.

22 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy

Egyptian-Russian Business Forum

May 2025: Egypt-Singapore Business Forum, Cairo.

JUNE

10 June (Tuesday): Capmas expected to publish inflation data for May.

MPs approveextension of tax dispute resolution window until 30 June 2025, with potential for further extension

Coficab to complete its USD 88 mn automotive cable and electrical factory in Tenth of Ramadan City

Realme to open smartphone factory

JULY

10 July 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

15-16 July 2025 (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

Etihad Airways to launch twice-weekly flights to Alamein

AUGUST

28 August 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

Tourism Development Authority to waive late payment penalties for land purchases if full installments are paid

SEPTEMBER

Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to launch two new schools in Alexandria and Somabay

Egypt Otsuka’s nutritional products factory in Tenth of Ramadan to begin operations, with exports to Gulf countries expected by January 2026

OCTOBER

2 October 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

NOVEMBER

20 November 2025 (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

1-4 December: Egypt Defence Expo (EDEX), Egypt International Exhibition Centre.

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2025: The Egyptian-Italian business forum

1Q 2025: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib to visit Italy

1Q 2025: Eipico’s biopharma plant to begin operations

1Q 2025: Finance Ministry to launch public consultations on its tax policy document

Mid-2025: EGX launches sustainability index.

2Q 2025: Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to introduce derivatives on the EGX

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations

1H 2025: EGX launches a sharia-compliant sustainability index.

1H 2025: Digital Financial Identity Company will launch an electronic bank account opening service

1H 2025: The Egyptian-US Investment Forum.

1H 2025: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority will relaunch a global tender for gold exploration through Shalateen Mineral Resources company.

3Q 2025: Nasr Automotive begins locally manufacturing passenger cars.

Mid-2025: The Administrative Capital for Urban Developments to roll out the second phase of offering industrial plots to investors

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document

2026

1 January: European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations

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