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Tuesday, 24 Mar 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Budget Watch
Energy
Taxation
Energy
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar

Egypt enters war economy mode with strict energy austerity measures

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Today at a glance

1

Big Story Today

Commercial activity faces 9pm curfew as regional war doubles fuel bills.
2

BUDGET WATCH

FinMin revises FY 2026-27 deficit target to 5.5% of GDP despite regional shocks.
3

Energy

Sumed pipeline flows unaffected by Yanbu strike.
4

Taxation

FinMin to introduce 33-step tax reform package, end arbitrary tax assessments.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Leviathan restart to provide immediate relief for Egypt energy crunch.
6

Energy

Orascom Construction, Engie, Toyota Tsusho sign PPA for 900 MW wind farm in Egypt’s Ras Shokeir.
7

Also on our Radar

Egypt aims to wipe the credit slate clean with global energy majors by July.
8

PLANET FINANCE

Bond market loses USD bns as war drags on.
9

Going Green

Renewables are a matter of national security, not just the environment.

Tuesday, 24 Mar 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Budget Watch
Energy
Taxation
Energy
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Going Green
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Leviathan restart to provide immediate relief for Egypt energy crunch

Good morning, and welcome back. We hope your Eid break was more restful than the news cycle over the last few days, with attacks by both Israel and Iran on critical pieces of energy infrastructure in Iran and in the GCC and more giving us plenty to digest in today’s issue.

Closer to home, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly is signaling the start of energy austerity measures to protect the state’s fiscal health as fuel import bills skyrocket, with a 9pm curfew for commercial activity and other measures set to take effect Saturday. But despite the shock of rising energy costs, the Finance Ministry is holding its ground, targeting a reduced budget deficit of 5.5% for FY 2026-27, supported in no small part by the state’s upcoming second package of tax reforms — all of which we cover in today’s issue and more.

***

WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.***

Watch this space

ENERGY — Israel’s Leviathan gas field is preparing to resume production within days, Mees reports. Chevron and NewMed Energy are awaiting the green light from the Israeli government to restart flows, which were abruptly halted on 28 February following US-Israeli military strikes against Iran. Prior to the shut-off, Leviathan was utilizing its newly expanded 1.2 bcf/d capacity to supply Egypt with 830 mmcf/d of gas in January.

Why this matters: The resumption will significantly ease the energy strain facing Egypt and open up a much more affordable option to spiraling LNG import costs, despite the Brent-linked contract pushing up previous prices.

ENERGY — Repairs to Qatar’s LNG facilities after this month’s missile strikes could “take up to five years,” Qatar Energy CEO Saad Sherida Al Kaabi said in a statement. Two liquefaction trains — roughly 12.8 mtpa, or 17% of total exports — have been knocked offline, forcing QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on long-term contracts with buyers in Europe and Asia.

While Egypt isn’t on the list of buyers directly affected, further LNG shortages on the global market will continue to push prices up, especially as each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability, intensifying competition for a shrinking pool of flexible supply. Countries with weaker financing capacities like Egypt will struggle to compete with Asia or Europe’s premiums, Wideangle LNG Consulting Director Jean-Christian Heintz tells EnterpriseAM.

Market watch

Riyadh is reportedly modeling a worst-case oil price scenario, as strikes on infrastructure and the closure of Hormuz threaten to push crude toward USD 180 / bbl by late April should disruptions persist, unnamed Saudi officials tell the Wall Street Journal.

“This is really uncharted territory for the oil market, as there has never been such a large, prolonged, and unpredictable supply outage,” Gulf analyst at GlobalPartners Justin Alexander tells EnterpriseAM. USD 180 / bbl is “not implausible” as it would still be lower in real USD terms than when oil prices hit over USD 145 / bbl during the 2008 financial crisis, but that surge was demand-side driven, Alexander said.

It’s all about how long the Hormuz closure is going to last. “I don’t think USD 150 is out of the question in another month […] You start talking about June, I’ll give you USD 180,” CIBC Private Wealth Senior Energy Trader Rebecca Babin said.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the MENA-IndiaCorridor?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

Staying on target

The country’s ready-made garments sector exported USD 299 mn worth of goods in January, up 11% y-o-y, well on track to hit its USD 4.4 bn year-end target, according to a statement from the Export Council for Ready-Made Garments seen by EnterpriseAM. Growth has been driven by strong demand in key markets, with exports to the US rising 16% to USD 118 mn, and those to the EU jumping 26% to USD 132 mn, Chairman of the council Fadel Marzouk said.

The long-term goal: The government is also targeting annual export growth of 22-25% to reach USD 12 bn by 2031 — a goal that will require more than doubling current levels amid ongoing regional uncertainties.

PSA

Attention all entrepreneurs: Ten Capital Network is hosting the MENAFastPitch webinar on 31 March. A selection of 10 regional startups will get the chance to pitch their ideas to US-based investors and receive real-time feedback on their fundability ahead of raising capital. The session is open to MENA-based startups with an MVP, preferably with early revenue. Each startup gets a five-minute pitch and five-minute Q&A.

WEATHER- It’s a sunny day in Cairo today, with a high of 23°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Cloudy skies are forecast for Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 12°C.

The big story abroad

The US-Israel war on Iran has not slowed down yet, but US President Donald Trump did announce a five-day pause in strikes and indicate a resumption of talks with Tehran. Trump notably walked back his threat to target the Islamic Republic’s power grid after being urged by US allies and Gulf states, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.

But Tehran has denied that it agreed to talk to Washington. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said.

WATCH THIS SPACE- There are two things we’ll be watching closely in the days to come: Whether Washington and Tehran will sit at the negotiating table, and whether Trump will stick to his decision not to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iranian media claims he already failed to follow through, reporting what so far appear to us to be limited attacks on the country’s gas facilities earlier today.

Oil prices eased on the news: Crude prices fell 11% yesterday following Trump’s decision to delay airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities and his contested reference to resumed negotiations. Brent crude tumbled USD 12.25 — a 10.9% drop — to close at USD 99.94 per barrel.

Wall Street welcomed the decision to delay strikes, with its three major indexes closing in the green, up over 1%.

Also making headlines is the collision between an Air Canada Express jet and a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia airport. Both pilots were killed and dozens were injured. Aviation safety experts said that air traffic staffing levels — an encroaching issue in US aviation — will be a part of the ensuing investigation.

MEANWHILE- In the world of AI: Asset management firm BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink has raised the alarm over the AI boom, which he says could make wealth disparities more severe. AI stands to continue the trend of keeping gains among individuals who already own financial assets but “at an even larger scale,” Fink said.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how the war on Iran is putting renewables in focus as an alternative to the country’s dependence on fossil fuel imports.

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Somabay becomes the stage for Egypt’s equestrian legacy.

From 26 to 29 March 2026, the Egyptian Equestrian Cup arrives on the Red Sea, uniting riders, horses, and elite competition in a setting defined by discipline, mastery, and place.

2

The Big Story Today

Commercial activity faces 9pm curfew as regional war doubles fuel bills

A new round of austerity measures will come into effect starting Saturday, 28 March, as the government attempts to contain a ballooning energy bill without triggering a new wave of inflation amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iranian war, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said during a press conference held ahead of the Eid break (watch, runtime: 37:18).

The measures include earlier closing hours for commercial activity, reduced public lighting, a shutdown of government buildings in the new capital after work hours, and a temporary slowdown in diesel-intensive projects. The government is also studying whether to impose remote working one or two days a week across both the public and private sectors.

Why this matters: The government is attempting to walk a tightrope between fiscal pressure, inflation control, and economic continuity. Instead of passing through higher global energy costs to consumers, it is effectively shifting the adjustment onto operating hours, public consumption, and business activity. That helps shield households in the short term but places immediate pressure on sectors like retail, hospitality, and entertainment that rely heavily on evening demand.

The details

Shops, malls, restaurants, and cafes will close at 9pm on weekdays and 10pm on Thursdays and Fridays. The measures will be applied for one month initially, with a review to follow, the prime minister said.

The state is also cutting back on public-sector energy use. Roadside advertisements will go dark, street lighting will be reduced to “minimum safe levels,” and government buildings in the New Capital will shut down at 6pm, with any additional administrative work to be completed remotely, Madbouly said.

At the same time, the government is delaying or slowing diesel-intensive national projects and freezing or postponing selected budget expenditures to preserve liquidity and manage fuel consumption, a measure that will also be applied for one month initially, with a review to follow, the prime minister noted.

The government is also studying whether to implement remote work one or two days a week, Madbouly said. If implemented, this would mark the second time the government applies partial remote work due to energy pressures, following its rollout on Sundays between August and September 2023 during the peak of the natural gas production shortfall and electricity outages.

But this time, the government is considering extending remote work to include private companies as well. Factories, utilities, transport infrastructure, and healthcare services would be exempt, as the government continues to prioritize uninterrupted production and essential services. We will be watching closely how the government puts into effect and enforces the decision if implemented.

Notably, Madbouly did not signal any return to electricity load-shedding for households at this stage, suggesting the government is still trying to manage the crisis without resorting to direct disruptions to residential power supply.

The government is also holding the line on subsidized bread prices despite rising production costs. Madbouly said the cost of producing a loaf has increased by an additional EGP 0.20-0.25 due to higher fuel costs. With the state producing around 270 mn loaves per day, the fiscal burden is rising sharply. Still, he emphasized that any move affecting bread prices — particularly for low-income citizens — is being postponed for as long as possible.

Maintaining industrial output is the top priority, Madbouly stressed. The government is seeking to ensure the continued availability of goods in the market to avoid supply shortages and price spikes.

The good news: We hold sufficient raw material inventories — in some cases enough for up to a year — reducing immediate concerns about production disruptions, Madbouly confirmed, citing industry associations he met with.

The shock is in the numbers

Egypt’s monthly natural gas import bill has surged from USD 560 mn before the war to USD 1.65 bn for the same volumes today — an increase of roughly USD 1.1 bn per month, Madbouly noted. Crude prices have climbed from USD 69 / bbl before the conflict and USD 93 at the time of the government’s last pricing decisions to USD 108.5 (at the time of the presser), with some projections pointing to USD 150-200 if the conflict escalates further, the prime minister said.

Diesel — the backbone of transport, logistics, and much of the economy — has seen one of the sharpest increases, with import prices rising from USD 665 per ton to USD 1,604 per ton, Madbouly noted. Butane prices have also jumped by more than 30%, he added.

The result: The country’s energy bill has effectively doubled or more, with no clear timeline for normalization. The crisis could last weeks, months, or potentially longer, with some scenarios extending into 2026, the prime minister warns.

This was always the scenario to prepare for: Madbouly had previously warned in October 2024, when direct military confrontations first broke out between Tel Aviv and Tehran, that a full-scale regional war would push Egypt into a “war economy” mode. That scenario is now materializing.

ALSO- The government will announce an increase in the minimum wage alongside the approval of the new state budget, expected before the end of the month. The draft budget will be submitted to the parliament by no later than 31 March, in line with constitutional requirements, Madbouly said during the press conference.

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3

BUDGET WATCH

FinMin revises FY 2026-27 deficit target to 5.5% of GDP despite regional shocks

The Finance Ministry is targeting a reduction in the budget deficit to 5.5% in the FY 2026-27 budget, down from 7.3% in the current fiscal year, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. While the ministry had initially aimed for a more ambitious 4.9% deficit in its preliminary draft, the revised 5.5% target reflects a recalibration to account for ongoing regional geopolitical tensions.

The ministry is banking on a significant increase in state resources to help narrow the deficit. “We hope that the expected increase in revenues will support the deficit reduction forecasts,” the source said. Total revenues are projected to reach EGP 4 tn, up from EGP 3.1 tn, with tax and fee receipts expected to touch the EGP 3 tn mark for the first time, rising from EGP 2.6 tn in FY 2025-26, buoyed by the anticipated rollout of the government’s second tax facilitation package.

Spending growth is expected to moderate as the government pushes ahead with austerity measures and energy subsidy cuts, with public expenditures forecast at EGP 4.9 tn. Despite the belt-tightening, the ministry is aiming to maintain a primary surplus of 4%, while working to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio and lower debt servicing costs.

To mitigate the impact of subsidy reforms, savings from fuel subsidy cuts will be directed toward social support programs, including increases in pensions, social grants, and the Takaful and Karama conditional money transfer program. The wage bill is set to exceed EGP 750 bn, driven in part by a new minimum wage increase for public sector workers.

What’s next? The cabinet will submit the final draft budget to the House of Representatives by the end of this month.

Tags:
4

Energy

Sumed pipeline flows unaffected by Yanbu strike

Egypt’s Sumed pipeline is still funneling out Saudi crude at full capacity despite Thursday’s drone strikes on the Saudi port of Yanbu, government officials tell EnterpriseAM. Flows to the 2.5 mn bbl / d pipeline that serves as one of the few remaining avenues for Saudi energy imports have been unaffected by Iranian attacks on the Samref refinery in Yanbu and all export contracts are being fulfilled, we were told.

Confidence in the export route to bypass the closed Hormuz Strait is still strong according to the officials we spoke to, who tell us they are looking to continue attracting shipments to then re-export via vessels in the Mediterranean. Capacities could also be increased by utilizing recently upgraded storage facilities in the Red Sea, they added.

Why this matters: The almost complete shutdown of energy imports from Saudi Arabia and other GCC nations has positioned the Sumed pipeline as one of the few ways the Kingdom can export energy to the international market. The route’s relative resilience to Iranian attacks should mean that it will channel considerably more this year than the 50 mn barrels moved in 2025, and potentially serve as a model to build on as GCC nations look to diversify and secure export routes in the longer term.

But despite operations running smoothly, Red Sea transits between KSA and Egypt remain limited, with a backlog of shipments at Saudi’s Duba and Yanbu ports and Egypt’s Safaga Port, in addition to similar issues for Jordan-bound Egyptian exports via Aqaba.

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5

Taxation

Goodbye, arbitrary taxes

The Finance Ministry will introduce a sweeping 33-step tax reform package that permanently abolishes arbitrary estimated tax assessments for future periods, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk tells EnterpriseAM. However, old estimated tax disputes from previous years remain under the legacy rules.

Why this matters: The legislation — already approved by the cabinet and soon to be submitted to the parliament — marks a major shift toward rewarding compliant taxpayers and rebuilding trust with the private sector. It is a part of a broader state strategy to enhance domestic revenue generation and recalibrate spending priorities to maintain stable macroeconomic indicators amid mounting regional pressures.

The new package significantly boosts liquidity for compliant businesses, doubling the volume and value of immediate VAT refunds for “white list” taxpayers. It will also allow companies to directly recover cash credit balances from their income tax returns rather than just offsetting them against future liabilities. Furthermore, the tax dispute settlement law will be extended through 31 December.

Other key measures include easing procedures for writing off small debts, launching a digital tax advisory platform, introducing capital gains tax incentives for determining the acquisition cost of unlisted securities, and allowing the 2023-2024 tax periods to benefit from fixed and proportional tax systems.

No incentives without impact: The era of blanket state support is officially over. Kouchouk said that any future fiscal incentives or subsidies targeted at the productive, export, or tourism sectors will be strictly tied to tangible, measurable value added. Expanding this productive base will eventually ease the burden on investors and citizens, with the government currently eyeing strong potential for growth in outsourcing, ICT, and agricultural exports, Kouchouk added.

The government is relying on efficiency, not new taxes, to boost its revenues. Tax receipts jumped 31% y-o-y in the first eight months of the current fiscal year without the introduction of new burdens. During the same period, the government injected EGP 90 bn to stimulate economic activity and shield the budget from regional shocks, along with EGP 15 bn to fast-track the Hayah Karima initiative’s first phase.

Egypt’s overall fiscal position remains stable despite the challenging external environment, Kouchouk tells us, noting that swift and proactive policy responses played a key role in shielding the budget from deeper shocks.

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6

Energy

Another big-ticket wind farm is in the works

Another 900 MW of renewable energy is set to hit the grid in mid-2028 from a wind farm near Ras Shokeir to be developed by a consortium of Orascom Construction, Engie, and Aeolus — the renewable energy platform backed by Toyota Tsusho Corporation — after the companies inked a power purchase agreement (PPA) for the project, according to a statement (pdf) from Orascom Construction.

By the numbers: The ownership structure sees Aeolus holding a 40% stake, Engie 35%, and Orascom Construction 25%. The new development will bring the consortium’s total wind capacity in Egypt to around 1.8 GW, up from its existing portfolio of 912 MW across two operational wind farms.

The project will be developed under a 25-year build-own-operate model, with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company as the sole offtaker. As in previous projects, Orascom Construction will also execute the civil and electrical works for the balance of plant and supply selected local components, maintaining its dual role as contractor and equity partner.

What’s next? The project is now moving toward financial close, which is expected in early 3Q 2026, with construction to begin at the end of the year and full commercial operation to begin mid-2028, according to a statement from consortium partner Engie.

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7

Also on our Radar

Egypt aims to wipe the credit slate clean with global energy majors by July

Gov’t to clear USD 1.3 bn in outstanding arrears to oil companies by June

The Oil Ministry will settle its remaining USD 1.3 bn in arrears to international oil and gas companies by 30 June, fully clearing a backlog that reached USD 6.1 bn in mid-2024, according to a ministry statement. The accelerated timeline surpasses previous plans to reduce the country’s outstanding dues to USD 1.2 bn by the end of June, starting with an initial USD 500 mn payment in May.

Why it matters: Every unit of energy produced domestically is one unit of energy you don’t have to import, but to increase production, you need to increase investment. Clearing arrears is seen as a key part of rebuilding trust with energy companies and persuading them to step up their operations after years of production declines.

EFG Holding records 7% y-o-y growth in revenues in 2025

Our friends at EFG Holding saw their operating revenue rise 7% y-o-y to EGP 26.0 bn in 2025, driven by mixed performances from its main three verticals — investment bank EFG Hermes, commercial bank Bank NXT, and NBFI EFG Finance — according to their latest earnings release (pdf) and an accompanying statement (pdf). The group’s net income stood at EGP 4.1 bn for the year, down 5% from the year before.

Bank NXT’s revenues rose 52% y-o-y to EGP 7.5 bn, backed by a 30% increase in net interest income. The lender’s net income rose 77% y-o-y to EGP 3.1 bn, with the group’s share coming in at EGP 1.6 bn.

EFG Finance saw its revenue grow 39% y-o-y to EGP 6.7 bn, buoyed by increased revenues from its business lines and spearheaded by Valu, which saw a 56% y-o-y increase in revenues to EGP 3.0 bn. Tanmeyah also showed steady growth, with revenues rising 25% y-o-y to EGP 2.4 bn. EFG Finance’s net income jumped 45% y-o-y to EGP 1.2 bn.

EFG Hermes saw its revenues dip 19% y-o-y to EGP 11.9 bn over the same period, which it attributed to a “normalization from an exceptionally strong FY 2024 base” and weaker results in its holding and treasury department, as well as in its investment banking unit. EFG Hermes’ net income was down 50% to EGP 1.3 bn for the year.

Silver becomes the latest asset class to join Egypt’s inflation-hedging toolkit

Beltone Asset Management secured initial FRA approval for Egypt’s first-ever silver investment fund, Fadda. The fund will offer cumulative daily returns, providing a regulated vehicle for investors seeking exposure to silver at competitive market prices, according to a statement (pdf).

Positioned as a strategic tool for portfolio diversification and a hedge against volatility, Fadda introduces a new asset class to the Egyptian landscape, targeting medium- to long-term growth. While the full structural details and investment mechanisms are still under wraps, the subscription window is set to open immediately following Eid El Fitr via Beltone Securities Brokerage.

El Sisi embarks on Gulf tour to show solidarity amid Iranian strikes

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi visited the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia to voice “Egypt’s solidarity and full support for the brotherly Gulf Cooperation Council countries in light of the current regional conditions” over the Eid El Fitr break. During the meetings, El Sisi conveyed Egypt’s “rejection and condemnation of the Iranian attacks” and stressed how “the national security of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is an extension of Egyptian national security.”

On Thursday, the president visited the UAE to meet his Emirati counterpart Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, before landing in Doha to meet Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, according to an Ittihadiya statement. On Saturday, El Sisi met Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in Manama, before heading to Riyadh to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to a separate Ittihadiya statement.

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8

PLANET FINANCE

Bond market loses USD bns as war drags on

The damage to the international bond market from the regional war is starting to show, with USD 2.5 tn wiped off global bond values this month alone, Bloomberg reports. Government, corporate, and securitized debt have fallen from USD 77 tn at the end of last month to USD 74.4 tn currently. The usual safe haven has been experiencing a rout for some time now as the conflict continues to escalate.

Government debt is leading declines, with a Bloomberg index of sovereign securities falling 3.3% during the month, surpassing the decline in corporate bonds by 3.1%, the data show.

The culprit? An uptick in inflation is expected to erode the value of returns on bonds, making them suddenly not so attractive to investors. The US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, and subsequent forecasts of a hike later in the year, is likely to add fuel to the inflation-concern fire and see the bond sell-off continue for the time being.

IN CONTEXT- Predictions for inflation growth have skyrocketed on the back of the ongoing war between the US/Israel and Iran. Look no further than the jumps seen in oil prices as more and more energy infrastructure is taken out and the movement, or lack thereof, of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains sticky.

Similar situations around the world are hammering home the fact that the implications of this war are anything but regional, with the US, Japan, the UK, India, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea all seeing an uptick in government bond yields as anticipation of higher inflation hits the market. In New Zealand, yields are at their highest in nearly a year, while over in Australia, certain bonds are seeing the highest yields since 2011.

The impact is most stark in markets that are the most reliant on energy imports, with the UK seeing a sell-off of government bonds wiping off GBP 108 bn in market value, the business information service reported elsewhere. That marks the worst month for bonds since the rout that preceded the ouster of Prime Minister Liz Truss in 2022.

The phenomenon seems to be yet another manifestation of stagflation. We recently reported on this unfortunate cocktail of stagnating economic growth and inflation rewriting the hedging rulebook — and it seems markets are already pricing in that sentiment, analysts say.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian-Pacific markets are up in early trading this morning, rebounding from losses seen a day earlier after statements from US President Donald Trump ignited hope that we’re nearing the end of the regional war. Over on Wall Street, futures are in the red after a trading day that saw all major indices jump over 1%.

EGX30

47,612

+3.4% (YTD: +13.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 52.29

Sell 52.43

USD (CIB)

Buy 52.29

Sell 52.39

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

10,946

+0.6% (YTD: +4.3%)

ADX

9,423

-1.6% (YTD: -5.7%)

DFM

5,383

-3.0% (YTD: -11.0%)

S&P 500

6,581

+1.2% (YTD: -3.9%)

FTSE 100

9,894

-0.2% (YTD: -0.4%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,574

+1.3% (YTD: -3.8%)

Brent crude

USD 99.94

-10.9%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.91

+0.5%

Gold

USD 4,453

+0.3%

BTC

USD 70,588

+4.0% (YTD: -19.4%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,037

+0.1% (YTD: +4.4%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

149.15

-0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

26.15

-2.4% (YTD: +74.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 3.4% at Wednesday’s close on turnover of EGP 8.6 bn (31.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 13.8% YTD.

In the green: CIB (+8.5%), Arabian Cement (+3.5%), and EFG Holding (+3.3%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-3.8%), AMOC (-2.6%), and Kima (-2.3%).

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Our weekly deep dive into the green economy and ESG issue in Egypt.

Published every Tuesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read going Green
9

Going Green

Renewables are a matter of national security, not just an environmental concern

The war on Iran is changing the way renewables are discussed around the world, with Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, telling Reuters that “if there was ever a moment to accelerate that energy transition, breaking dependencies which have shackled economies, this is the time.” Global energy flows have been disrupted with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and fossil fuels that have made it to international markets are seeing rapid price increases. This disruption is helping to reframe renewable energy as a matter of energy security and sovereignty, rather than just an environmental concern.

Why this matters: Rises in energy prices filter through every economy in the world, but the impact is most acute for net energy importers like Egypt. Egypt’s monthly natural gas import bill has surged from USD 560 mn before the war to USD 1.7 bn for the same volumes today — an increase of roughly USD 1.1 bn per month, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Wednesday (watch, runtime: 37:18). Similar price increases for crude, diesel, and butane are also adding to the government’s energy import bill, and there’s no clear timeline for when prices will return to normal, he added.

Renewables are an energy security and sovereignty issue

Renewables’ key advantage is that “once the infrastructure is in place, electricity is not dependent on the price volatility of oil and gas,” Greenpeace MENA Executive Director Ghiwa Nakat tells EnterpriseAM. “That makes renewables a strategic stability asset and, in our current volatile geopolitical context, a precondition for energy security, not just a climate solution,” she explained.

Egypt knows only too well how “overdependence on imports of oil and gas exposes the country to both economic and geopolitical risks,” with the country’s recent experience with power shortages and expensive LNG imports, she added. Unlike imported fossil fuels, which are subject to disruptions, unpredictable financial strains, and the risk of energy shortages and blackouts, once renewables are built, production and costs are predictable.

“Energy security is absolutely part of national security, but true energy security can only be achieved through energy sovereignty,” Nakat argues. To achieve energy security, nations need to invest in “reliable, affordable domestic energy sources that can reduce exposure to global price shocks while ensuring stable electricity for essential systems.” Renewable energy is the ideal solution for this transition — it’s “local, resilient, and far less exposed to geopolitical disruption than fossil fuels,” she adds.

Renewables can become even more important if you’re the one subject to attacks, as they are well-suited for decentralization, Nakat tells us. “Decentralized renewables can be distributed across rooftops, public buildings, farms, factories, and communities, supported by storage, efficiency, and smarter grids.” This creates a “more resilient system by spreading risk and keeping essential services powered closer to where demand exists,” unlike the centralized nature of oil and gas, she adds.

“What we are witnessing in the Middle East should be a wakeup call to policymakers and governments in our region,” Nakat says. While financial considerations are still paramount, the why behind renewables is going to change, Cairo Solar Managing Director Hatem Tawfik tells EnterpriseAM.

The economics were already there

Even before the conflict, renewables made financial sense. “Every 10 MW of solar panels which cost about USD 1.5 mn can save USD 1.5 mn worth of gas annually,” Hatem Tawfik tells EnterpriseAM. This effectively means the investment can pay for itself within a year, making it one of the fastest-return infrastructure options available.

This becomes even more significant in Egypt’s pricing structure, where gas is bought at around USD 14 per MMBtu and sold to the electricity sector at USD 4. That gap creates a heavy subsidy burden on the state, and replacing gas with solar helps reduce both import dependency and fiscal pressure over time.

Egypt is planning to fast-track around USD 2 bn in renewable energy projects for integration into the national grid before next summer, government officials tell us. The move will add 3.1 GW of capacity and expand storage to ease pressure during peak demand and supply constraints linked to rising global prices, they added. Solar is expected to account for the largest share of these additions at around 1.5 GW, with new projects required to include battery storage systems to improve reliability and manage peak loads more efficiently.

Recent data also shows renewable electricity generation in Egypt has reached a record 9.1 GW, up from 6.4 GW in 2023, according to an official document seen by EnterpriseAM. This underscores steady progress, even if it is not yet enough to offset structural exposure.

Tags:

CALENDAR

2026

MARCH

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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