Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

Available in your choice of English or Arabic

Monday, 16 Feb 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Social Security
Banking
A Message From Visa
Capital Markets
Moves
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar

Egypt bets on 20-company list to break the privatization hiatus

An independent publication supported by

Opening up a world of opportunity

Realize More

Live More

Powering with nature

Driving growth

Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

Government to finalize 20-company privatization list within a month.
2

SOCIAL SUPPORT

Ramadan support now, wage hikes in July.
3

Banking

Will lower interest rates accelerate Egypt’s digital banking shift?
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF’s 25 February board meeting could unlock USD 2.3 bn for Egypt.
5

Capital markets

CI Capital investor gathering highlights Egypt’s shift from index afterthought to alpha hotspot.
6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

EgyptAir scales up with 12 aircrafts this year despite global supply constraints.
7

PLANET FINANCE

The greenback is breaking up with economic reality.
8

BLACKBOARD

The trucking industry has an education and training problem.

Monday, 16 Feb 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Social Security
Banking
A Message From Visa
Capital Markets
Moves
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Blackboard
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF’s 25 Feb board meeting could unlock USD 2.3 bn for Egypt

Good morning, folks. In today’s packed issue, there’s little sign that the business community is starting to slow down in the run-up to Ramadan.

Leading the issue today is news that state is cooking up a list of 20 state-owned companies to offer up stakes for on the EGX. But the state isn’t only selling, it’s spending too, with a EGP 40.3 bn social support package in the works to accompany Ramadan.

Also catching our attention is the race to launch the country’s first digital bank, the IMF pencilling the final greenlight for fifth and sixth reviews later this month, EgyptAir’s efforts to expand its fleet, and much, much more.

***

WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
***

Watch this space

SOVEREIGN DEBT — The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board has penciled in 25 February to hopefully greenlight our fifth and sixth reviews, according to the board’s calendar. Provided the board gives the final sign-off, the Fund will release USD 2.3 bn to Egypt — split between USD 2 bn from the extended fund facility and another USD 300 mn from the resilience and sustainability fund (RSF) — Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said earlier this month.

Why it matters: While we here at EnterpriseAM, and others, often focus on the USD 2 bn tranche from the combined reviews, the smaller RSF is also worth taking note of. The USD 300 mn tranche shows that the Fund is no longer interested in just emergency stabilization and is instead looking towards long-term structural resilience that doesn’t only address purely economic concerns.

The seventh review will likely be pushed back to late April or May after the IMF and World Bank’s annual spring meet-up, a source familiar with Egypt’s negotiations with the Fund tells EnterpriseAM. The review was originally scheduled for mid-March, but delays in completing the fifth and sixth reviews have created a knock-on effect for the remainder of the program’s schedule, the source tells us.

The acceleration of the state privatization program and further budget consolidation will be the main requirements moving ahead, with the purpose of ensuring the sustainability of reforms, increasing private sector participation, boosting investment, and improving macroeconomic indicators like the deficit we were told.

The eighth review currently scheduled for October — which together with seventh review would unlock USD 2.5 bn — could also be pushed back to the end of the year, according to the source. But if macro conditions continue to improve, the final review could still happen on time in October, our source told us.

REGULATION — NBFIs will need to start offsetting their emissions soon. Non-banking financial institutions with issued capital exceeding EGP 100 mn have to disclose their carbon emissions annually starting no later than June 2026, according to a decision from the Financial Regulatory Authority. The firms will be obligated to offset 20% of emissions declared in their annual report within 90 days of reporting. Compliance is now a mandatory licensing condition.

INVESTMENT — Chinese textile companies have turned their attention to Egypt: The Hong Kong Garment and Textiles Business Mission was in town, hosted by HSBC Egypt and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, according to a press release (pdf). The mission’s time in Egypt focused on garment and textile investment prospects and Egypt’s position as a hub for exports and skilled labor.

“Egypt is emerging as an important hub for global trade. It offers investors a strategic export base with multiple trade agreements, and access to key markets in the Middle East, Europe, the US and beyond. Egypt’s garment and textiles sector offers strong potential for international investors supported by skilled and cost-effective workforce which could contribute significantly to job creations,” HSBC Egypt’s Deputy Chairman and CEO Todd Wilcox said.

Egypt’s apparel exports in 2025 exceeded USD 3 bn, coinciding with strong interest from Chinese and Turkish investors.

The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.

Subscribe here

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the MENA-IndiaCorridor?

Data point

4.15 bcf/d— that’s the average amount of gas produced in 4Q 2025, down 1.2% from the quarter before and marking a nine-year low, according to Oil Ministry data cited by industry publication Mees. The drop in production follows a brief moment of optimism after output increased in the third quarter of the year for the first time in three years.

Why it matters: Digging into the data reveals a widening rift between offshore fields and the growth of smaller, onshore plays. While the Mediterranean struggled, the Western Desert reached a multi-year high of 835 mn cfd and the Nile Delta showed modest gains, both buoyed by the government’s shift toward offering higher gas prices and improved terms to firms like Apache and Dana Gas.

PSA-

Need to run to the bank this Ramadan? Make sure you get there early as banks will be open to the public from 9:30am-1:30pm, according to a CBE statement seen by EnterpriseAM. Staff working hours will also be running on a reduced 9-2pm schedule during the holy month.

WEATHER- The summery weather continues in Cairo today, with a high of 30°C and a low of 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

But it’s a different story in Alexandria, with a much cooler high of 21°C and a low of 15°C.

Correction: In yesterday’s edition of EnterpriseAM, we mistakenly referred to the Semiramis Intercontinental as part of the group of government hotels being moved to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and that it had recently secured an Indian partner. The Semiramis Intercontinental is a privately owned hotel that is unrelated to the story. This story has been corrected on our website to refer instead to the Continental Hotel in Downtown Cairo.

The big story abroad

The Netflix-Paramount-Warner Bros dance is back in the news after Bloomberg broke the news that Warner Bros Discovery is mulling a renewed hostile bid from Paramount Skydance which could potentially nix a prior agreement with Netflix. Paramount has vowed to pay the termination fee — at USD 2.8 bn — owed to Netflix if the streaming giant’s bid is turned down, as well as backstop Warner Bros’ debt refinancing. Netflix’s bid of USD 27.75 per share for Warner Bros’ namesake studio and HBO Max streaming business was accepted late last year.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING- The automotive industry is reeling from a USD 65 bnhit following a sweeping reversal of US climate policy. The downturn has disproportionately affected the companies that wagered the most on EVs, with global automotive player Stellantis being hit the hardest after suffering a USD 26 bn write down.

AND- The CHF has appreciated recently — driven by geopolitical turmoil and the greenback’s recent dip — against the EUR and USD and is undermining the competitiveness of Swiss exporters. The haven currency has already recorded a 3% rise in 2026 and has especially pressured small and medium-sized companies, trade associations have said. Switzerland’s exported goods and services make up more than 70% of its GDP.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how trucking’s education and training problem risks holding the sector back.

Tags:

Where the sea meets the saddle. The wait is over. The stage is revealed.

Egypt Equestrian Cup 2026. 📍Somabay. March 26 — 27 — 28

Three days of mastery. One arena. Countless legacies in motion.

2

The Big Story Today

Government to finalize 20-company privatization list within a month

The government is preparing to unveil a new list of state-owned enterprises slated for listing on the EGX, in a renewed push to revive its privatization program while keeping a close eye on market liquidity, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM, noting that the list should be finalized within a month.

A 20-company pipeline

The upcoming roster is expected to feature around 20 companies, including an additional stake sale of between 10% and 20% in Misr El Gadida for Housing and Development. The company holds a substantial land bank and several large-scale projects, positioning it as one of the more compelling long-term plays for both local and foreign investors.

Why this matters: Unlike strategic sales — which are often binary (the deal happens or it doesn’t) — EGX listings allow the state to offload smaller, incremental stakes while tapping into a massive pool of domestic retail liquidity.

Pharma is set to take center stage in the next wave of offerings, with the government planning to offer stakes in Misr Company for Pharmaceuticals, CID Pharmaceuticals, and El Nasr Pharmaceutical Chemicals, as the sector continues to benefit from resilient domestic and regional demand, the official told us.

The pipeline also extends to the mining and chemicals sectors, including El Nasr Mining, Misr Concrete Development, and Egyptian Chemical Industries (Kima). El Nasr Mining has already entered a production partnership with India’s Wilson and Egypt’s Al Safy Group to establish a JV that will build and operate a phosphate ore beneficiation plant.

Sinai Manganese’s future remains under discussion, given the company’s ambitious expansion plans, the official added. One scenario is floating a stake of up to 25% on the exchange, while another is pursuing a strategic transaction with a cornerstone investor, with a public listing remaining the fallback option should negotiations not materialize.

Structural reforms behind the push

In parallel, the government is coordinating with capital market and financial regulators to launch the EGX’s first-ever mining index — a step aimed at deepening the market and attracting sector-focused investors. At the same time, authorities are working on consolidating companies with similar activities into larger entities to enhance investment appeal, particularly in housing and real estate development, before offering stakes in these newly formed firms.

The IPO calendar is already heavy with anticipated offerings, including Banque du Caire and at least two companies affiliated with the Armed Forces’ National Service Projects Organization. Therefore, officials are expected to announce a revised timetable soon to ensure state offerings do not crowd out private-sector listings, our source told us.

The government is also awaiting new ministerial mandates from Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly that would expand the powers of the state asset management committee. The expanded authority would allow the committee to oversee transfers, spin-offs, and mergers among public-sector companies, laying the groundwork for restructuring state assets ahead of their eventual listing.

Tags:

This publication is proudly sponsored by

3

SOCIAL SECURITY

Ramadan support now, wage hikes in July

If you’ve been watching prices inch up ahead of Ramadan and wondering how the government plans to respond, here is the answer: The Madbouly government has officially put a EGP 40.3 bn price tag on a “welcome Ramadan” social support package. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and FinMin Ahmed Kouchouk unveiled the measures at a press conference yesterday (watch, runtime: 41:27), outlining what they described as a two-phased plan to ease pressure on households before and after the holy month.

What’s in the bag: The first phase is designed to get support to families quickly, ahead of Ramadan and through Eid, when spending typically rises. The second phase will kick in with the new FY on 1 July, bringing broader changes to wages and taxes that the government says are meant to address longer-term cost-of-living pressures.

The Ramadan and Eid package

The immediate Ramadan and Eid support package will roll out this week, with the goal of getting help to households before the holy month begins, and includes:

  • Ration card holders: EGP 8 bn has been set aside to provide a one-time EGP 400 top-up to 10 mn families, paid out over March and April;
  • Takaful and Karama families: EGP 4 bn will fund a one-time EGP 400 bonus for the 5.2 mn beneficiary families;
  • Additional beneficiaries: EGP 300 in direct support will go to 30k child pension recipients, while another 15k working women in rural communities will receive EGP 300 to help with seasonal costs;
  • Public healthcare: EGP 3 bn will be used to clear surgical waiting lists, and another EGP 3 bn will expand state-funded treatment for uninsured citizens through June;
  • Universal health ins.: Around EGP 3.3 bn will bring Minya into the universal health ins. system in April;
  • Hayah Karima: EGP 15 bn will support completion of the initiative’s first phase by the end of the FY. From that amount, EGP 4 bn will cover the higher local wheat procurement price, now set at EGP 2.35k per ardeb for the 2026 harvest season.

Beyond Ramadan into the coming budget

Madbouly signaled that a broader recalibration is coming with the next budget. He promised a “satisfactory” increase in the national minimum wage starting in July, saying it would reflect current inflationary changes. The private sector will be expected to apply the new wage floor once it is announced.

Teachers and doctors will get better pay, as the two groups have faced mounting pressure in recent years, the government pledged.

On the tax front, the upcoming budget is expected to adjust the income tax exemption threshold to better reflect inflation, which could rise between 80k-100k, a senior government source told us yesterday.

Tags:
4

Banking

Will lower interest rates accelerate Egypt’s digital banking shift?

The country’s first fully digital banks are finally nearing launch. Banque Misr’s Onebank secured final approval from the Central Bank of Egypt last August and is entering its operational phase this year, with CEO Sherif El Behery setting an ambitious target of EGP 40 bn in deposits and 800k customers in year one. Private sector giant CIB is also planning an EGP 300 mn investment in a new digital arm over the next three years, with CEO Hisham Ezz Al Arab expecting a license soon and a full rollout slated for later this year.

Why it matters: As the CBE moves deeper into its monetary easing cycle — kicking off 2026 with a 100-bps cut — the record-high interest margins that buoyed bank earnings in recent years are beginning to narrow. With further rate cuts expected, the nation’s largest lenders may very well be looking to the long-awaited launch of fully digital subsidiaries as a way to keep margins high.

Yet industry voices caution against drawing a straight line between rate cuts and digital branches. Digital transformation expert Alaa Abu El Magd argues that the push toward digital banking is not a reaction to falling profitability. Lenders have been moving in this direction for years as part of a broader technological shift, he said. Many banks already operate digital branches with minimal or no on-site staff, reflecting a gradual evolution in service models rather than a sudden defensive pivot.

The long game

While digital banks theoretically boast lower overheads by ditching physical rents and large headcounts, the initial barrier to entry remains high. Abu El Magd told EnterpriseAM that launching a digital bank is a long-term strategic investment rather than an immediate cost-cutting solution. The upfront capital required for tech infrastructure, risk management, cybersecurity, and governance is substantial, he noted. However, former Industrial Development Bank Chairman Maged Fahmy argues that these costs are still far lower than the price tag of expanding through a traditional brick-and-mortar network.

Traditional branches aren’t going anywhere just yet. Banks continue to rely on their physical presence to customers who prefer face-to-face interaction, particularly in rural areas and among older segments. Lenders run detailed impact studies before trimming their branch footprint, mindful of local communities and customer loyalty, Fahmy notes. Abu El Magd highlighted the risk of “cannibalization,” where existing clients migrate to digital platforms without expanding the overall customer base.

High-margin products also still rely heavily on physical branches, while digital channels are dominated by low-yield services such as transfers and bill payments. That helps explain why banks expand cautiously, Abu El Magd noted. CBE data shows the number of bank branches reached roughly 4.75k by June 2025, inching up from 4.72k a year earlier.

The CBE has also taken a conservative regulatory approach, prioritizing financial stability and cybersecurity before granting licenses. Banking expert Marwa El Shafei says that the CBE has set strict criteria to ensure these institutions qualify as genuine digital banks. “The biggest challenge for the central bank lies in customer education and protection against cyberattacks,” El Shafei noted. Abu El Magd adds that legacy banking systems must be upgraded to support full digital operations.

Still, the groundwork is largely in place. Over the last few years, Egypt has rolled out digital IDs, enabled e-signatures, and strengthened anti-money laundering frameworks to curb fraudulent accounts, El Shafei said. These reforms have lowered structural barriers that once slowed digital adoption.

Most analysts expect the transition to be gradual rather than abrupt. Fahmy describes it as a natural evolution for Egypt’s banking sector, one that aligns with global trends and reflects the steady rise in digital transaction volumes at home.

Tags:
5

A MESSAGE FROM VISA

The unified shield: a leadership vision for a resilient national payments ecosystem

In the architecture of a modern state, economic stability is increasingly synonymous with digital integrity. As Egypt rapidly expands its digital frontiers, risks are becoming much more sophisticated and convincing. Digital attacks can come in the form of AI-powered bots, deepfakes, synthetic identities, and automated intrusion attempts operating at unprecedented speed.

For a nation committed to a digital-first future, cybersecurity must be seen as an essential part of strengthening national infrastructure and advancing digital growth, not merely a technical obligation. When trust in a single transaction wavers, the momentum of the entire digital economy is at risk.

The current landscape makes it clear that passive systems are no longer a match for autonomous and aggressive fraudsters. Risk resilience requires that active, fraud-intelligent systems that can protect the progress Egypt has made in building trust across its digital-led institutions. Resilient risk-management systems must enable real-time decisions based on early-stage trigger detections. In this model, Visa acts as the real-time nervous system of national defense.

Processing over 500 mn transactions daily, Visa’s AI-driven engines identify fraud patterns in milliseconds, often before merchants or consumers sense an attempt. This global immune response allows markets to benefit from intelligence gathered across 200 countries, effectively protecting the local market against emerging threats.

This resilience is best realized through a structured public-private partnership. By establishing a National Fraud Data Exchange, governments create the regulatory mandate and unified protocols for secure collaboration. At the same time, Visa can leverage its global intelligence network, AI-driven analytics, and advanced tokenization technologies to neutralize attacks in real-time. This is not simple data sharing; it is the integration of global foresight with national enforcement.

When public authority aligns with Visa’s unmatched scale and intelligence, fraud can be systematically reduced, ensuring that the digital economy remains a fortress of systemic trust, resilience, and long-term stability.

Tags:
6

Capital markets

Global allocators pivot to the Egypt alpha play

The sentiment at last week’s CI Capital investor gathering in Cairo suggests 2026 is about the alpha play. Global allocators are no longer just looking for stability; they are looking for “some of the most serious value for money on the planet,” the founder of a German family office, which has 20% of its USD 10 mn Africa fund allocated to Egypt, told EnterpriseAM.

The event brought together 65 global capital allocators from the US, UK, Germany, South Africa, and the GCC with a collective USD 5 tn in assets under management to meet with 40 of Egypt’s leading listed companies. The general consensus was that the availability of FX and recent monetary reforms have significantly improved sentiment, though concerns about the level of sovereign debt and the consistency of policy remain.

Impact of FX availability and monetary reforms

The return of FX availability is the most significant development, a partner at a US-based management firm from New York, which manages USD 350 mn in Africa-focused funds, told us. He explained that their sentiment is a direct reflection of the C-suite, noting, “When they’re excited and they’re investing in Capex, I’m excited. When they’re scared about sourcing FX, I’m scared.” He also mentioned that valuations remain attractive because “the math” suggests that as bond rates come down, “you’re going to get a better valuation” for equities.

The head of regional equities at a regional investment bank and asset manager echoed the same sentiment, describing Egypt’s story as “one of the most attractive in the MENA,” if not the best, particularly as excitement over the Saudi market has softened due to budget deficits and reduced spending. “Valuations are cheap,” he said, because the market has yet to fully catch up to the post-devaluation inflation that pushed up corporate revenues and net income. He also revealed that his regional fund’s allocation to Egypt climbed to 25% from zero just two years ago. He admitted that for most foreign investors, a 25% allocation would seem “crazy” given that Egypt’s weight in regional indices like the S&P is “less than 2%.”

A researcher from a South African investment fund told us how their meetings with local banks and manufacturers focused on how the market has improved since 2024, with the fund now having 55% of its USD 160 mn portfolio allocated to Egypt. They admitted that they are “always worried about the currency,” calling it “the biggest issue,” but noted that “it is quite stable at the moment.” They identified food and telecommunications as sectors with consistent growth, noting that “food is always a good thing in Egypt” and highlighting digital banking as a huge prospect.

Investor sentiment and valuation plays

The local market is a “high-beta” play, and current valuations are hard to ignore, an equities manager from a major Bahraini bank that manages USD 3.5 bn in total AUM told us. The technical underweighting in global indices was echoed by him, noting that because Egypt represents only about 1.5% of the benchmark, their own 2-3% exposure is actually a significant “off-benchmark” position. He also explained that they recently re-entered the Egyptian market after being away for a long time due to capital controls.

The founder of the German family office described the domestic market as a high-value destination. Having founded 30 companies, he noted that by African standards, “I feel safe” in Egypt, specifically citing the “institutional background” as a strength. They are looking for companies with a “runway for reinvestment,” saying that businesses that simply “dividend it all out” are “less interesting.”

New investors and market caution

“The big progress was actually getting rid of the parallel rate and letting the currency float,” a research analyst from a South African investment firm told EnterpriseAM, describing it as “a big break” for them. While they currently have no exposure to Egypt, they are now actively looking, the analysts told us.

While they expressed interest in the banking and fintech sectors, they also noted a degree of caution. “You just don’t know whether the government will commit to the float when things are tough … you don’t know if the central bank will go back and massage the currency,” they explained. For them, the future is about seeing if the authorities “let the currency fluctuate” during difficult periods.

A partner in a New York-based firm pointed to the “aggregate amount of sovereign debt” as a point of concern. Being one of the biggest borrowers from the IMF “is not a club you want to be in.” They emphasized that “addressing the debt, de-leveraging, and fiscal surpluses” are necessary to show that “the marginal change is getting better, not worse.” Their concern is simple: “if there’s another global shock… if you’re highly leveraged, whether you’re a business or a country, you’re vulnerable.”

Tags:
7

Moves

Ahmed Issa joins FAB Misr as CEO

First Abu Dhabi Bank Misr has reportedly tapped Ahmed Issa (LinkedIn) as CEO, AsharqBusiness reports. Issa will succeed Mohamed Abbas Fayed and assume his duties this week. Issa holds over three decades of experience, most prominently serving as tourism minister, deputy CEO of Banque Misr, and non-executive chairman of CI Capital.

Get to know him better: We spoke to Issa back in 2019 for our My Morning Routine column.

Tags:

8

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

EgyptAir scales up with 12 aircrafts this year despite global supply constraints

Egyptair looks to build up fleet to meet tourism footfall targets

Egyptair is set to add 12 new aircraft to its fleet this year, including the addition yesterday of its first Airbus A350-900 aircraft, according to a statement from the Civil Aviation Ministry. The national flag carrier plans to add 34 new planes from the A350-900 and Boeing 737-8 Max families to its fleet by 2031, including 13 new aircraft in 2027.

Why it matters: The move aims to support the country’s goal of seeing some 30 mn tourists land in Egypt in 2030, over double the amount recorded last year. However, there are obstacles to building a fleet beyond getting funds ready, with airlines globally facing an aircraft shortage due to manufacturers — particularly engine builders — struggling to keep up with demand due to supply chain issues and a lack of skilled labor.

Rawaj oversubscription signals appetite for Aspire’s fund pivot

Aspire Capital secured FRA approval to manage investment funds directly, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Aspire is pushing into the equity space with its Wafra Plus fund, which opened for subscription on 1 February. The pivot saw a strong start with its Rawaj money market fund, which closed its subscription late last month with a 5x oversubscription rate. The firm’s managed assets hit EGP 4 bn through its subsidiary Aim Financial Investments.

We knew this was coming: Last year, Managing Director Abdel Moneim Omran said the firm is looking to launch five funds worth EGP 3 bn over two years, including a gold investment fund, a real estate fund, a money market fund, an FCY liquidity fund, and an equity fund.

Slaughterhouse biogas initiative not just hot air

The government is scaling up its pilot program to install biogas units at state-owned slaughterhouses, moving from a small-scale unit in Kafr Shukr to an industrial-scale EGP 13 mn facility in New Valley, according to a statement from the Local Development and Environment Ministry. The ministry claims the New Valley plant, which will process waste from a 3k-head cattle farm, will generate EGP 17 mn in its first year through the production of organic fertilizer and methane gas.

Why this matters: This isn’t just a green initiative — it’s an import-substitution and export play. By converting slaughterhouse waste into high-grade organic fertilizer, the state is targeting international markets that are increasingly banning products grown with chemical fertilizers.

Kima reports net income surge in 2Q FY 2025-2026

Egyptian Chemical Industries (Kima) saw its net income increase 46.9% y-o-y to EGP 1.2 bn during 2Q FY 2025-26, according to the company’s latest earnings release (pdf). Over the same period, revenues grew 4.6% y-o-y to EGP 4.2 bn.

Tags:
9

PLANET FINANCE

The greenback is breaking up with economic reality

It appears that the greenback has decoupled from economic fundamentals, morphing from a currency driven by growth and interest rates into one reacting to the volatility of the Trump administration, the Financial Times ’ Katie Martin argues in an opinion piece. A strange new economic reality for the world’s reserve currency is starting to appear, as while US growth forecasts climbed and bond yields remained elevated this year — all data points that should under normal circumstances point to a stronger USD — the greenback is down nearly 2% YTD against a basket of its peers.

Why it matters: For the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC, this is a direct threat to the stability of the USD peg. Because of their currencies being tethered to the greenback, they are effectively importing US political risk into the heart of their finances. As global asset managers now shift to maintain US stock holdings, while selling the USD, the Gulf could see its local purchasing power and fiscal reserves eroded by political drama all the way in Washington that has nothing to do with the economic health of the region.

Recently released US job data added to suspicions that macroeconomic reality and the currency are disconnected in a way never seen before. Despite expectations of a soaring USD following January job creation numbers that were double what they expected, the greenback remained flat. Summarizing this broader disconnect, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow proclaimed on his Substack that “We’re entering a new era. US growth will boom this year. But the USD will fall.”

But a weak USD is seen as a good thing by some in the White House, potentially including Trump himself, who described the USD reaching its lowest point in four years last month as “doing great” in comments to reporters. Some in the Trump administration, including Trade Policy Advisor Robert Lighthizer and to a lesser extent Vice President JD Vance, argue that a strong greenback has long dampened local manufacturing and export potential in the states.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are starting off the week in the red, reacting to the Japanese economy missing growth expectations during the fourth quarter of 2025. The economy grew 0.1% during the three-month period, well below expectations of 0.4%, marking a reversal from the contraction recorded during the previous quarter.

EGX30

52,308

+3.6% (YTD: +25.1%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 46.71

Sell 46.85

USD (CIB)

Buy 46.70

Sell 46.80

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

11,229

-0.2% (YTD: +7.0%)

ADX

10,636

-0.5% (YTD: +6.4%)

DFM

6,730

+0.2% (YTD: +11.3%)

S&P 500

6,836

+0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)

FTSE 100

10,446

+0.4% (YTD: +5.2%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,985

-0.4% (YTD: +3.4%)

Brent crude

USD 67.75

+0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.24

+0.8%

Gold

USD 5,046

+2.0%

BTC

USD 68,918

-1.5% (YTD: -21.4%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,023

+0.1% (YTD: +3.1%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

152.28

+0.3% (YTD: +0.9%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

20.60

-1.1% (YTD: +37.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 3.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 8.4 bn (40.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.1% YTD.

In the green: Telecom Egypt (+19.0%), ADIB (+8.6%), and Heliopolis Housing (+7.0%).

In the red: Ibnsina Pharma (-2.1%), Egypt Aluminum (-1.9%), and Orascom Investment Holding (-0.8%).

Tags:

Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard
10

BLACKBOARD

The trucking industry has an education and training problem

Egypt’s trucking sector is bracing for a boom, with truck sales skyrocketing 108% y-o-y in 2025. But there’s a catch: hardware is outstripping human capital due to a critical vocational education gap. While the private sector is eager to upgrade fleets, the country’s vocational training and licensing systems are creating a massive labor bottleneck.

Why it matters: For a country pivoting toward export-led growth, logistics is only as good as the people moving the goods. Currently, the path to becoming a heavy-truck operator is a marathon of bureaucracy rather than a speedy or effective vocational education and training framework.

This is especially a problem for the heavy-trucking segment, which does the heavy lifting in moving our goods. To qualify for driving a heavy truck or a trailer, a professional driver must hold a third-class license for three years, then a second-class license for three years before securing a first-class license. “That’s six years before you can drive a heavy truck — or what I call a progression barrier,” Reliance Operations and Maintenance Services (Roms) Managing Director Omar Ragheb told EnterpriseAM.

Hiring has also grown difficult for operators. Even established companies report a hiring success rate of 40% at best, the founder of logistics asset fractional ownership platform FRCTN Karim Othman told EnterpriseAM.

And that shortage is not merely about headcount, it is a “skills and incentives mismatch,” Othman told us. For example, there is a significant migration of skilled Egyptian drivers to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, drawn by massive infrastructure projects, better pay, and superior and predictable working conditions, both Othman and Ragheb told us.

By the numbers: Roms estimates that the market has a gap of some 8k truck missions a day — essentially 8k loads a day that cannot be moved efficiently due to a lack of available assets or drivers. “You need at least to double the workforce in the industry because you need about two drivers for every three trucks to keep them moving,” Ragheb told us.

One solution? Education and training. One immediate fix involves reforming the country’s licensing system. A proposed alternative is to decouple licensing from time served and base it instead on competency. “The law needs to be revisited to cut the required time to secure a heavy-trucking driver’s license from six to two years,” Ragheb said. To ensure competency, the government could accredit specific training institutions to test and certify drivers. Together, these two changes could immediately inject new, younger blood into the workforce, he added.

But formalizing education and training requirements in a largely informal sector may be difficult. About 95% of the heavy trucks in the market are owned by individuals or family businesses, with only 5% owned by companies, Othman told us. On average, an individual or a family owns three trucks, “which creates zero economies of scale in maintenance, financing, social and health ins., and training, and leads to high downtime and volatile pricing,” he added.

To formalize education, we might first need to formalize the sector, which we could do by establishing minimum wage standards, mandating social and health ins., and enforcing maximum working hours to prevent fatigue, Othman and Ragheb told us. Currently, the market operates largely informally, with drivers lacking contracts or safety nets, meaning an injury or accident results in an immediate loss of income. Formalization would create a less volatile career path that is currently missing from the industry, making formal qualification for the industry more worthwhile for workers and stopping the talent drain to the Gulf.

Tags:

CALENDAR

2026

FEBRUARY

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

25 February (Wednesday): IMF’s Executive Board meeting for our sixth and seventh reviews

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00