Good morning, friends. It’s shaping up to be another busy week, with everything from updates on Egypt’s strategic partnership with the EU, more signs of a healthy interbank market, another IPO is back in the news, and a new step towards a Turkish industrial zone in Egypt.
So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:09 pm in the capital city, and you’ll have until 4:25 am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- El Sisi wants more gov’t involvement in stabilizing commodity prices: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi proposed that the government could either compete directly with the private sector in selling essential commodities — in which case he called for earmarking USD 1-3 bn to the government to ramp up competition — and enforce the role of the competition authority deter hoarding and price gouging practices, according to a Thursday speech (watch, runtime: 3:10).
#2- EIB gearing up to finance green hydrogen project: The European Investment Bank (EIB) has started due diligence for an unspecified green hydrogen project, the bank’s regional head, Guido Clary, told Asharq Business, adding that green hydrogen will be among the main sectors in which the bank will target next year, especially in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. Clary did not specify whether the lender will be directing funds to one of the numerous projects already in the pipeline or a new one.
FX WATCH-
Banks in Egypt have bought and sold over USD 8.5 bn on the interbank market in the two weeks since Egypt floated the EGP, Asharq Business reports, citing unnamed banking sources. The EGP has appreciated about 9% against the greenback since the float was announced, closing last week at about EGP 46.70 to USD 1.
Healthy interbank volumes are a good sign: They’re consistent with the slow de-dollarization expected by most bankers with whom we’ve spoken. They’re also consistent with positive market sentiment after a run of announcements of immediate inflows from the carry trade and the first payments from ADQ for the development rights to Ras El Hekma, as well expectations of near- and medium-term inflows from the IMF, World Bank, and European Union.
Where does the EGP “settle”: Smart folks ranging from EFG Hermes and HSBC to Goldman Sachs and more see the EGP in the 40-45 range.
What to watch for: Inflows speak to the EGP appreciating to something in the range called for by the big research houses. Among the signs that we’re not re-pegged:
- Does the central bank fully eliminate currency controls?
- Does the EGP lose ground in the face of an adverse development — something another covid or war in Ukraine?
- Is there volatility within the trading band the big banks think is reasonable?
- Do the interbank volumes remain healthy?
- How does the EGP behave (immediately and in the medium term) if we cut interest rates to the point that we become less attractive to the carry trade — and more attractive to local and foreign direct investor?
WAR WATCH-
Arab FMs talk ceasefire efforts with Blinken: Arab foreign ministers met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Cairo on Thursday to push for concrete steps towards a ceasefire and decided that an expert group meeting with representatives from each country will convene in the coming days on the matter. Blinken met FM Sameh Shoukry and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to discuss aid, ceasefire, and Red Sea developments (here and here).
UN Chief was also in town: UN Secertary General Antonio Guterrescalled Israel’s blocking of the flow of aid into Gaza a “moral outrage” while on a visit to the Rafah crossing yesterday, Reuters reported.
US-led Gaza ceasefire resolution vetoed by Russia, China:A US-led resolutioncalling for an immediate six-week ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas was vetoed by Russia and China during a UN Security Council meeting on Friday, reports Reuters. The resolution is the fourth to have been vetoed by the council since the war began in October, after Russia and China rebuffed the US’ insistence on tying the ceasefire to a hostage agreement and condemnation of Hamas, adds Axios. Algeria also voted against the resolution.
What’s next? The Security Council will reconvene on Monday to vote on an alternative resolution, a diplomatic source told Reuters.
RED SEA WATCH-
Maersk continues to avoid Red Sea despite EU naval protection mission: Shipping giant Maersk said it will continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea, after deeming that “the risk level in the region remains elevated,” a company statement showed. The number of attacks on commercial vessels has risen despite the EU launch of security operation Aspides last month to ensure a safer transit, the statement noted.
HAPPENING TODAY-
Concrete Fashion Group to start trading on the EGX: Our friends at Concrete Fashion Group for Commercial and Industrial Investment and subsidiary GTEX Holding will begin trading on the EGX today. The two companies are the product of a demerger at Arafa Holding that took place last week.
Go deeper- We spoke with newly-appointed deputy CEO Mohamed Talaat last week to find out what prompted the move and what’s next for Concrete, including its global expansion plans. You can read the full story here.
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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It was an incredibly busy weekend for news, regardless of whether capital markets, tech, or politics are your thing.
IN BUSINESS + TECH: [Redacted] just got serious for Big Tech. Regulators on both sides of the Atlantic have spent the past 2-3 years trying to curb the power of major technology companies. Perhaps the most ambitious (and least well-thought-out?) swing came from the US Department of Justice, which on Thursday accused Apple of maintaining an illegal monopoly on smartphones.
The catch: Tech pundits argue the DoJ is overreaching by creating a smartphone category that doesn’t exist (have you ever heard of a “performance phone”? Didn’t think so.) in a bid to make its charges stick.
Essential reading:
- The Department of Justice comes for Apple (Platformer)
- US sues Apple for illegal monopoly over smartphones (The Verge)
- Ghost of Microsoft stalks Apple as DOJ takes its shot (Wall Street Journal)
- Google, Apple breakups on the agenda as global regulators target tech (Reuters)
AND- Reddit shares soared in their NYSE debut, climbing 48% in their first day of trading and prompting some analysts to claim the US IPO market for tech shares is back. We have the rundown in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.
MEANWHILE- “Big Oil used an industry conference this week to argue against a rapid transition to green energy, as fossil fuel companies are emboldened by high demand and record profits despite rising alarm over climate change,” the Financial Times writes in its must-read wrap of CERAWeek in Houston.
IN POLITICS: More than 130 people are dead in an Isis attack on a Moscow concert venueand the UK’s Princess Catherine has joined King Charles in revealing that she’s receiving treatment for cancer.





