Eastern stake sale back on?

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What We're Tracking Today

What we’re tracking on 19 November 2018

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May the road rise to meet you: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly and other cabinet officials will meet today with a delegation from the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to discuss financing for infrastructure projects here. The delegation will be in town until Friday, 23 November.

A delegation of French healthcare companies is in town today for the French-Egyptian Healthcare Forum.

The central bank will auction USD 1.675 bn-worth of one-year USD-denominated treasury bills today. The offering will be settled on Tuesday.

The Egyptian Competition Authority will inaugurate today a regional center for competition policy. The Smart Village-based HQ will act as a Middle East and North Africa hub for consumer protection law, regulations and policies.

Casting a critical eye over Dubai has become a thing in the international business press of late. It’s not a revival of the 2008-era “cars of indebted foreigners left at the airport” meme, but a more subtle one. To take but two recent examples: A ‘white-collar recession’ is rippling through Dubai’s economy, the Wall Street Journal suggests, writing that “the Middle East’s most cosmopolitan city is losing some of the high-paying jobs that powered its rise as a global financial hub from a desert outpost.” Nicholas Parasie’s piece is balanced and thoughtful, but would have benefitted by carefully separating the woes of players with domestic problems (Emirates Airlines, local real estate players, domestic banks) from those who are being buffeted by alleged malfeasance (Abraaj) or global / secular challenges (Deutsche Bank, OSN, PR firm Edelman). In the same vein, Bloomberg writes that the “haven for Middle East money” is “losing its shine.”

Apple is in “bear market” territory, and even non-iSheep think that’s bad news for US stocks, the WSJ suggests, writing that some investors “question whether the U.S. stock rally can regain its footing without the leadership of the world’s most valuable public company. Investors have flocked for years toward Apple and a handful of other companies in the technology sector because of their ability to consistently increase sales regardless of global economic growth. But recent trade tensions between the U.S. and China and signs of slowing tech-sector revenue growth have dimmed their prospects.”

And George Kennan wept: The New York Times has launched a multi-part series headlined “China Rules” on how Beijing “squared the demands of authoritarian rule with the needs of free markets … for longer, at greater scale and with more convincing results than any other. The question now is whether it can sustain this model with the United States as an adversary rather than a partner.” The first installment of the package is brilliantly written and accompanied by gorgeous imagery that bring the nation to life. The second installment is due in about a week. A must read.

From the Department of the Obvious (at least to us): Why America struggles to sell LNG to Europe. Just like in real estate, it is about location, location, location, writes the Economist.

Killing carbs can help you take off (and keep off) the weight, but you have to stick with it for the long term, writes this brilliant Anahad O’Connor for the New York Times in a piece that makes clear that not all calories were created equal. Low-carb diets make you “less hungry” and help you burn more energy each day over the long haul than do carb-heavy ways of eating.

Meet the brothers who built a USD 8 bn software startup. In Utah. In a decidedly unsexy niche. Without raising venture capital funding until the very end. And who then sold to SAP at a 75% premium to their expected valuation in a planned IPO. We love us an entrepreneurial success story to start the morning. (Bloomberg)

No, you don’t need to adjust your scale. For the science nerds among us: There are new global definitions of the kilogram and of a mole (as in Avogadro’s number mole). The New York Times has the story.

Wondering what’s heading to cinemas as we slide into year’s end? The Wall Street Journal has your back with a great rundown.

More into books than movies? Start with the Washington Post’s best books of 2018 (including its 10 best mysteries and thrillers sub-list). Before long, the NYT and others will add their recommendations to the list.

If you’re of a certain age and planning your new year’s travel plans, you may want to book a trip to Los Angeles to be there for the 16 January 2019 tribute to Chris Cornell, the late Soundgarden frontman. Performers will include the surviving members of Soundgarden, Audioslave and Temple of the Dog as well as Metallica and the Foo Fighters, among others. Variety has more.

PSA #1- Tomorrow is a national holiday in observance of the Prophet’s Birthday. The stock exchange and banks will be closed. Enterprise is off — you can expect us back in your inboxes on Wednesday.

Abbasiya Cathedral’s 50-year anniversary leads coverage on the airwaves

The Abbasiya Cathedral’s golden jubilee celebration was a hot topic for the talking heads on an evening devoid of any real business news of note (Lamees, Lamees, wherefore art thou, Lamees?)

The cathedral has been undergoing renovations for over three years in preparation for the 50-year anniversary celebration, Father Sergius Sergius said on Hona Al Asema (watch, runtime: 5:55). Reuters also took note of the cathedral’s inauguration following the facelift, but said the celebrations were “overshadowed” by the chapel’s suicide bombing attack that killed 25 people in 2016, the newswire says.

Pope Tawadros II touched on the recent wave of attacks against Coptic Christians, stressing that they are aimed at undermining the country’s unity (watch, runtime: 6:58).

Tawadros also took the chance to wish President Abdel Fattah El Sisi a happy birthday. The president turns 64 today (watch, runtime: 7:41).

Misr Petroleum and COOP Petroleum will be launching a new, reformulated 95-octane petrol at the same price of the regular 95-octane petrol, Oil Ministry Spokesman Hamdy Abdelaziz told Al Hayah Al Youm. The product will be offered at gas stations that already have regular 95-octane petrol as of next month, but will not replace the original or 92-octane petrol. The new formula was developed to improve the quality of fuel and keep up with the needs of newer cars in the market, Abdelaziz said (watch, runtime: 5:44). The news also earned some airtime on Hona Al Asema (watch, runtime: 3:13).

Amr Adib was preoccupied with discussing upcoming celebrations for the Prophet’s birthday. He was particularly unhappy with the soaring prices of the dolls sold for the occasion (‘arouset mouled) and railed against the fact that some of these dolls are now wearing the hijab (watch, runtime: 4:04).

The government is aiming to eliminate all slum areas from the country next year, head of Egypt’s slum development fund Khaled Seddik told Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal (watch, runtime: 1:34).

Elsewhere, director and actor Mohamed Sobhy played the part of political analyst to analyze everything from the Arab Spring to the US’ decision earlier this year to recognize Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel (watch, runtime: 5:34).

Egypt’s Eastern Tobacco stake sale is “in the offing” as share price recovers

IPO WATCH- Eastern Tobacco stake sale is “in the offing” as share price recovers: The sale by the state of an additional 4.5% stake in the Eastern Tobacco Company on the EGX is “in the offing,” Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik said yesterday, according to Al Mal. Tawfik did not disclose any further details, but said his ministry will discuss the matter with the transaction’s manager — EFG Hermes. The revival of the sale comes as Eastern’s share price has rebounded from its plunge in October, according to Chemical Industries Holding Company (CIHC) head Emad El-Din Mostafa. Regulations for the state privatization program bar any company from proceeding with a stake sale if its shares rise or fall beyond a threshold of 10% of its average value in the month preceding the transaction.

Background: The government had announced last month that the transaction — which is expected to pilot the privatization program — had been put on ice “indefinitely” after Eastern’s share price plunged as much as 11.5% in a week, pressured by the wider emerging market selloff, a high interest rate environment, a looming trade war, and the introduction of protectionist measures in various countries. Our sources had told us at the time that cabinet, while completely committed to the program, had made the decision to push the timeline after consulting with investment bankers. Tawfik had also said that the government would follow through with the listing as soon as market conditions improved.

M&A WATCH- Pioneers Holding to seek 100% of Electro Cable Egypt: Pioneers Holding is looking to acquire 100% of Electro Cable Egypt, valued at EGP 711.5 mn, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Pioneers, which already owns 48.5% of Electro Cable through its subsidiary Summu Consulting, plans to go ahead with a mandatory tender offer at EGP 1.35 per share, the firm said on its website.

LEGISLATION WATCH- Amendments to Mineral Resources Act sent to House: The government has sent long-awaited draft amendments to the Mineral Resources Act to the House of Representatives for review, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said. El Molla reiterated that the amendments were made primarily to draw investments in the flagging mining sector, which holds world-class potential, but is hobbled by an outdated economic framework better suited to the oil and gas industry. El Molla noted that the ministry will begin immediately implementing the reforms laid out by consultancy Wood Mackenzie as soon as the House passes the amendments. Wood Mackenzie had been contracted by an affiliate of the Oil Ministry to lay out an appropriate development strategy for the sector.

El Molla expects the law’s executive regulations will be issued within six months of the bill passing in the House of Representatives and being signed into law by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

Background: While few details of the bill have been revealed, we expect it will see Egypt scrap its oil-and-gas-style production sharing agreement and move to a tax, rent and royalty model, eliminating the requirement that miners enter into 50:50 JVs with the sector’s regulator. It’s also expected to allow exploration companies to acquire exploration ground without first obtaining exploration licenses. The amendments, which aim to attract significant foreign interest in the nation’s mining sector, have been praised by industry leaders.

LEGISLATION WATCH- Amendments to controversial NGOs Act to be ready for public review within a month: The Social Solidarity Ministry-led committee tasked with amending the NGOs Act is expected to finish a draft of the amendments for Cabinet approval in one month’s time, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said, according to Al Ahram. Proposed amendments to the law will be put up for “national dialogue” (Egypt-speak for public consultations), Social Solidarity Minister Ghada Waly said. The Social Solidarity Ministry was expected to send its final draft of the executive regulations for the NGOs Act to the Cabinet last month.

Background: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi had said earlier this month that the law, which the House of Representatives passed back in 2016, is “flawed” and agreed to hold public consultations on changes. The law gives the state the power to decide who can set up an NGO and for what purpose and sets restrictions on donations, among other stipulations. The Supreme Constitutional Court in June struck down as unconstitutional clause that gave the social solidarity minister the power to disband the boards of NGOs.

HC Securities is in the final stages of advisory on two acquisitions in the GCC worth a combined EGP 1.4 bn, the firm’s chairman, Hussein Choucri, told us on the sidelines of the first Egypt M&A and Private Equity Forum. The first transaction will see an unnamed Saudi firm acquire a 30% stake in an unnamed Kuwaiti oil company for EGP 900 mn, while the second transaction sees the firm advising a UAE investment fund looking to acquire a Bahraini schools outfit for some EGP 500 mn.

Our friends at Pharos Holding have an M&A advisory pipeline that includes transactions worth a combined USD 50 mn in the coming months, said Noha El Ghazaly, managing director and head of investment banking at Pharos. The firm has as many as 10 transactions in the pipeline for potential execution in the next year, primarily in the food, manufacturing and healthcare sectors.

Sentiment at the gathering was widely positive. “The robust growth in the economy has been driven by the different set of reforms ranging from legislative reforms to floating of the Egyptian pound yield results and increase global investors’ interest in Egypt,” said Shamel Aboul Fadl, chairman of private equity outfit Compass.

Spotlight on health and education: The twin sectors are undergoing particular change — in business and on the regulatory front, prompting us to turn up at a panel looking at opportunities in each. In each sector, it’s a game of scale that favours local players who can grow quickly, suggested our friend CIRA CEO Mohamed El Kalla and EY-Parthenon Partner Jeremy Panacheril.

Don’t wait for the khawaget: Mahmoud Selim, HC’s head of investment banking, took it a step further saying local players shouldn’t wait for foreign investors to provide the capital they need to scale up. Al Tamimi & Company Partner Gary Watts held somewhat of the contrarian view, arguing that there will be an influx of international and global players, noting that the attracting foreign investment is government policy.

Other takeaways:

The focus in education has always been on the high-end of the income spectrum, but the real goldmine is serving the demand of the middle class, El Kalla said.
The sectors will inevitably see consolidation — for the same reason that big coffeehouse franchises edged mom ‘n pop cafes out of the market, Watts said.
The biggest challenge in the regional health and education sectors? Regulation, Panacheril said.
There are plenty of opportunities for private equity investors to create value by investing in alternatives to classical education and on edutech, El Kalla noted.

MOVES- Private equity firm Compass has appointed Tarek Abdel Rahman (LinkedIn) as managing partner, according to a press release. Abdel Rahman served for five years as co-CEO of Palm Hills Developments, which he joined after a 15-year run as an investment banker with Citi and Beltone. Prior to joining PHD, Abdel Rahman was co-founder and MD at M&A boutique Akanar Partners, which was bought out by Arqaam in 2016. “We are extremely pleased to welcome Tarek on board where he will be jointly leading the firm,” said Compass Founder and Chairman Shamel Aboul Fadl. “His unique investment background and expertise as the co-CEO of one of Egypt’s leading real estate developers is invaluable to us at this stage in our growth story,” he added.

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What we’re tracking this week and beyond

Pitch for a spot in Fintech Cairo: Pharos’ Pride Capital has launched Fintech Cairo in partnership with global seed program organizer Startup Bootcamp, along with Pride Capital has launched. The six-month accelerator program will select 10 companies from a pool of applicants. Our friends at Pharos Holding, along with Bank of Alexandria and the German development agency GIZ, are proud supporters and sponsors of the program. You can submit applications here. The deadline for submissions is the 31 December.

GERD talks within two weeks: Egypt and Ethiopia will start talks within two weeks on “unresolved” issues stemming from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday. Tripartite talks in September between Cairo, Addis Ababa and Khartoum failed to reach an agreement. Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Khader Mohamed said last month that the three countries had made progress towards an agreement on the filling of GERD’s reservoirs.

Amendments to Real Estate Registry Act coming: The Madbouly Cabinet is planning to introduce a bill to the House of Representatives amending the Real Estate Registry Act this week after the Egyptian Council of State completes its review, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Omar Marwan said. He did not reveal details of the amendments.

State land sale: The government is due to announce “soon” the date of its first auction of ‘unused’ state land, Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik has said. As many as 10 mn sqm of state-owned land in 10 governorates will be up for sale to developers.

Sinai development plan: The government is also reportedly set to unveil soon its new comprehensive strategy for Sinai. The plan will include a number of development and infrastructure projects in industry, agriculture, education, and sanitation, aimed at attracting as many as 2 mn new residents to the area.

Other news worth noting

On an otherwise very quiet news day for Egypt, AFP suggests newly discovered gas fields will be a lifeline for Egypt, while Human Rights Watch condemns the arrest of Islamist activists. Haaretz, meanwhile, seems to think that Hazem Beblawy is still prime minister, allowing an op-ed columnist to write that a letter allegedly from “Education Minister Mahmoud Abu Al-Nasr” (Tarek Shawki has held that job since January 2017) shows “Egypt Is Worried That Israel, Jews, and Gays Could Do Harm to Its ‘National Foundations.’”

Political reforms are necessary to attract investment in Egypt

Political reforms are part and parcel of the policies aimed at improving Egypt’s investment climate, Ahmed Galal writes for Al Masry Al Youm. While it’s well-known that investors look for profit and ease of doing business in a country, Galal points out that regulatory credibility and government trustworthiness also play a role in determining investors’ choice of target countries. He stresses that a little bit of political reform is necessary to complement the country’s economic reform program and help Egypt to attract more FDI.

Cultural hurdles make it difficult for Egyptian women to work

Cultural hurdles stall progress in female employment in Egypt: Even though gender equality has improved in Egypt, obstacles that are mostly rooted in cultural beliefs have stalled progress, Leslie T. Change writes for the New Yorker. Over the past two decades, the percentage of working women in Egypt has remained flat and actually dropped among college degree-holders. World Bank data estimated that household incomes would increase by up to 20% if women in the MENA region worked at the international rate, which it estimated would take 150 years to meet.

So much of it has to do with men’s fragile egos: A lot of women don’t work to protect their husbands’ image or ego from being hurt, says Change. Legally, a woman who seeks work without her husband’s permission in Egypt could face punishment, including losing his financial support, she adds. Work also involves travel which many women prefer avoiding due to “a [redacted] harassment epidemic”.

The next global recession: Are governments ready?

Economic and financial vulnerabilities making themselves apparent worldwide are pointing to a new massive slowdown over the next year or two, according to the Economist’s Ryan Avent. A decade after the 2008 global recession, the next global decline in economic activity could start in emerging markets, which have been “borrowing heavily” but contribute a large chunk of global economic output. Avent says that the Euro area is also at risk of another debt crisis.

Are governments ready? Not really. Central banks will likely be faced with already-low interest rates when the next recession rolls around, which means they will have to resort to other (unreliable) methods such as printing money to spur spending and growth. Ideally, governments should start taking steps now to get ready for the next slowdown by including measures in state budgets that would increase spending automatically when the economy weakens (watch, runtime: 3:20).

Shell aims to increase West Delta output to 450 mcf/d by end-2018-19

Shell aims to increase natural gas output from the West Nile Delta Burullus and Rashid fields to 450 mcf/d, by the end of FY2018-2019, up from a current 400 mcf/d, said a source from the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS).

Intelligent Micro Solutions (IMS) is currently in talks with several financial institutions and foreign companies to arrange USD 500 mn to finance the construction of solar power plants in Egypt, General Manager Magdy Saleh tells Al Shorouk. According to Saleh, the plants’ production capacities will range between 50 MW and 5 GW, and will meet local industry’s demand for electricity. IMS is currently partnering with another local solar energy firm to form a new company that will be responsible for implementing the solar power projects.

CIHC considering two foreign offers to build two Suez fertilizer factories

The Chemical Industries Holding Company (CIHC) is mulling two offers from foreign companies to establish two, fertilizer plants in Suez, worth a combined USD 1.3 bn, sources told Amwal Al Ghad. CIHC had received in July from Tocaico International Company, said the source, without revealing the other offer.

French VINCI-led consortium bids to construct Cairo Metro’s Line 3 airport route

A French consortium led by France’s VINCI has officially presented its bid in a tender to construct the third part of Cairo Metro Line 3’s Phase 4, which links the Heliopolis area to the Cairo International Airport, Youm7 reports. The 6.65 km line will cost EUR 300 mn, whose construction will be financed by a French loan. Tarek Abu El Wafa, head of the National Authority for Tunnels’ (NAT) planning department, noted that the authority is pushing for the project to be completed within three years, instead of the originally expected five. A final decision will be made on VINCI’s proposed offer by the end of the year.

CBE plans to increase electronic POS around Egypt to 1 mn from 72.5k by 2021

The Central Bank of Egypt plans to increase the number of electronic points of sale around the country to one mn from a current 72.5k by 2021, CBE Sub-Governor for Payment Systems and Business Technology Ayman Hussein tells Al Mal. The CBE is eyeing targeting increasing electronic transactions to 10% from a current 2% of total transactions over the next three years. The plan, which will extend to both card and quick response (QR) code payments, is part of the government’s transition toward financial inclusion and a cashless economy.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has approved granting a USD 24 mn loan for healthcare provider Andalusia Group, an unnamed EBRD executive tells Amwal Al Ghad. Andalusia will channel the funds toward a new hospital, as well as expand an existing one in Cairo. The group had previously announced its plans to invest USD 50 mn in Egypt in the next three years. We had also noted earlier this month that the group is planning to establish a medical facility in New Alamein.

Egypt women volunteered to fight in 1956 Tripartite Aggression

Scores of Egyptian women volunteered to fight the 1956 Tripartite Aggression against Egypt over the nationalization of the Suez Canal, according to Egyptian Streets.

USAID launches network to support women entrepreneurs in Egypt: USAID launched yesterday the Women Entrepreneurs Network (WEN) to provide financial literacy trainings, connections to online marketplaces and assistance to Egyptian women interested in managing their own businesses, according to a statement from the US embassy. The platform was launched in cooperation with the National Council for Women, Federation of Egyptian Industries, Alexandria Business Women Association, Business Women of Egypt 21, Entreprenelle, Etijah, Flat6Labs, and Nile University.

THE MARKET ON SUNDAY: The EGX30 ended yesterday’s session up 2.1%. CIB, the index heaviest constituent ended up 2.0%. EGX30’s top performing constituents were Palm Hills up 5.2%, and SODIC up 4.7%, and Eastern Co. up 4.6%. Yesterday’s worst performing stock was Global Telecom down 0.3%. The market turnover was EGP 1.5 bn, and foreign investors were the sole net sellers.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -63.8 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +0.3 mn
Domestic: Net Long | EGP +63.4 mn

Retail: 57.5% of total trades | 25.2% of buyers | 89.8% of sellers
Institutions: 42.5% of total trades | 74.8% of buyers | 10.2% of sellers

WTI: USD 56.46 (0.00%)
Brent: USD 66.76 (+0.21%)

Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 4.27 MMBtu, (+5.79%, December 2018 contract)
Gold: USD 1,223.00/ troy ounce (+0.66%)

TASI: 7,496.91 (-2.16%) (YTD: +3.74%)
ADX: 5,055.46 (+0.68%) (YTD: +14.94%)
DFM: 2,778.76 (+0.09%) (YTD: -17.55%)
KSE Premier Market: 5,285.14 (-0.22%)
QE: 10,297.06 (+0.81%) (YTD: +20.81%)
MSM: 4,452.12 (+0.04%) (YTD: -12.69%)
BB: 1,310.88 (+0.13%) (YTD: -1.56%)

CALENDAR

17-19 November (Saturday-Monday): ElectricX-Energizing The Industry, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

20 November (Tuesday): Prophet's Birthday (TBC), national holiday.

22 November (Thursday): US Thanksgiving.

End of November: A delegation from the Egypt-Greece Business Council will visit Athens at the end of November to promote investment, the council’s chairman, Hani Berzi, said.

25-28 November (Sunday-Wednesday): 22nd Cairo ICT, Cairo Convention Center, Nasr City, Cairo.

03-05 December (Monday-Wednesday): First Egypt Defense Expo, Egyptian International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

04 December (Tuesday): Egypt’s Emirates NBD PMI for November released.

08-09 December (Saturday-Sunday): Business for Africa and the World: The Africa 2018 Forum, Maritim Jolie Ville International Congress Center, Sharm El Sheikh.

09-10 December (Sunday-Monday): Cairo Regional Centre for International Commercial Arbitration’s Sharm El Sheikh VII conference, Egypt Hall, SOHO Square, Sharm El Sheikh

12 December (Wednesday): Banking and Finance Congress 2018, Cairo, venue TBD.

13-15 December (Thursday-Saturday): Forum on “ The Role of Digital Financial Communication and Solutions in Enhancing Financial Inclusion,” Sharm El Sheikh, venue TBD.

25 December (Tuesday): Western Christmas.

27 December (Thursday): CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

01 January 2019 (Tuesday): New Year's Day, national holiday.

07 January 2019 (Monday): Coptic Christmas.

22-25 January 2019 (Tuesday-Friday): World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting, Davos-Klosters, Switzerland.

23 January 2019 (Wednesday) 50th Cairo International Book Fair.

25 January 2019 (Friday): Police Day, national holiday.

20-22 April 2019 (Friday-Sunday): Spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

25 April 2019 (Thursday): Sinai Liberation day, national holiday.

28 April 2019 (Sunday): Easter Sunday, national holiday.

29 April 2019 (Monday): Easter Monday, national holiday.

01 May 2019 (Wednesday): Labor Day, national holiday.

06 May 2019 (Monday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

June 2019: International Forum for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

05-06 June 2019 (Wednesday-Thursday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

10-13 October 2019 (Tuesday-Sunday) Big Industrial Week Arabia 2019, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

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